Post by sd on Dec 29, 2017 22:33:33 GMT -5
As 2017 wraps up, i have a lot to be thankful for-
I maintain a good job, loving wife and family, and blessed with 3 young grand daughters.
i've got RD, Swift,Tiarra, and DG's Market timers to also thank- brought me back into being engaged with trading the market.
DG's Blygh, RD, IRA and Spiderman, Tiarra - thanks-
With the passing of DG this year, I was brought back into activity and the end result was focusing on the market much more than i had intended-
My trading got magnified this year- and it was a benign year to Trade With The Trend-
As Blygh has pointed out- members offer different trade ideas- and i gradually adopted some that proved to be outperformers-
I also modified my trading to focus on a- go with the trend/momentum approach- and it was a perfect year to do so.
It's hard to define and quantify- but i also held some stocks for weeks and through 5% declines- and was rewarded with being in the trade for larger gains.
I also learned to take profits and tighten stops on "pull-away" moves - momentum up mopves that will always return to the mean.
In conjunction with that, I incorporated a much larger asset base outside of the traditional smaller trading accounts held - all within an IRA based- Roth or IRA -tax free account.
I had also moved assets out of the company IRA account and took individual control -for some- and invested some with a 'Fiduciary' active manager-
i wanted to compare what a "professional " manager would accomplish , and what I could potentially accomplish- both of us relying on 'active' management.
Hard to determine the real net results this year- as I did not actively get fully engaged in all accounts until mid summer-
During this year i experimented with going "overweight" - and I think this is worth exploring further in 2018- The concept of overweighting a position is similar to purchasing a leveraged position- As long as the position continues to gtrend in your favor- -all is good- Should it reverse, the leverage- or overweight can crush you quickly-
My approach to this is to be somewhat more aggressive and not lenient with stops.
A note on Momentum-
Momentum is synonymous with identifying the sector Rotation and the stocks or ETF's within that are in favor-
This is a very basic concept- but i think it takes a certain degree of homework and market attentiveness to discern where the sector rotation is in play- and when it is waning-
Shorter term swing trading sets itself up very simply with charts and a few moving averages- Always nice if the fundamentals support the cause, but in momentum moves fundamentals may not be a realistic factor-
identifying areas of market favoritism- sector rotation- in the market cycle ideally positions one to shift as the rotation shifts-
The example would be TECH- outperformance in 2017 and appears to b e in disfa vor going into 2018-0 WHY? is it valuation, or has Tech suddenly died?
Well, i think the new year 2018 will find the US of A leading- but narrowly- Infrastructure, Defense, perhaps tech- but I need to consider global markets and better growth aqt a cheaper valuation. I think Robotics will be an ongoing area that deserves investment- Botz, ROBO.
Lastly, after selection of the preferred categories: sector analysis- comes the mechanics of technical analysis- If the Sector isn't in fa vor- the ETF or individual stock will likely fail to perform.
Good place to stop tonight- Perhaps this Closes 2017- and i need to think forward into 2018-
Thanks all!