SD's 2017- Seeking long term relationship with trending...

[sd]

futures up- going long

eod EDIT; Buy-stop for BOTZ kept me from getting a fill and it dropped lower-
CBOE limit got filled on the price pullback after spiking higher-
Overweight CBOE- gains in Vang. stop there 120- IB entry 124 & change-
markets appeared to open higher but declined?
IBKR gained, Materials- VAW gained- poor day otherwise for my positions- And sold MSFT as it hit my $82 stop-loss- Shame- about a 7.5% GAIN- THOUGHT IT WOULD HAVE MORE STAYING POWER IN THAT RANGE SINCE THE GAP HIGHER-Stop was under the swing low- It was overweight-
Nail gapped higher- believe I had a stop w/limit $92.50- Day order- I'll wait ....and adjust orders this week-
So out of touch with the market-It was just on the way to work this am I heard the Sell-off Friday was due to Fake News broadcast implicating Trump Before the Election-
with Russian Collusion- Truth was it was all legal After the Election......
This political crap touches a market nerve -
Did Buy some DIA today.

[sd]

Tech continues to get sold- I have a large position in SKYY- just tightened stops and will rather take a smaller loss than a larger-
It was a timely sell on the tech holdings- as they are all lower- I'm going to allow the small accounts in Scott & AMTD to stop-out and simply transfer into a Vanguard account-Unless there is some large rally unfolding in the day's ahead-
With sector rotation & profittaking on the year's favorites-Just look at NVDA- this market is locking in the year's gains early- and you can't blame them!
Exiting with the faster approach this month has provided Ample opportunity to get things cheaper- but i'm not Buying while all i see are red bars below the declining ema-
This is not a big market sell-off - but is definitely affecting the high flyers- Will just ride it out and not be anxious to jump into many trades-
I hold a corporate Bond position -VCLT and it has performed well this year and this month- Part of that diversification stuff- I had closed out the other Bond positions as non-performers- rent money to hold them- little return- Still long on the investment side-not bailing out on the global markets-

[blygh]

I cannot believe the tech sell-off is real.  Semiconductor sensors are going into everything. I did buy some SOXS to off set the decline in SOXL  and some TECS to offset FSPTX decline.  I am trying to decide on the sectors I think will out perform in 2018.  Defense and Aerospace seem like good bets.  Is biotech due for a rebound?  How about Energy and Energy services?  Financials should benefit the most from tax cuts - I own a lot of insurance companies and and some brokerages.  I expect retail to go nowhere -but  taking a long look at chemicals - industrial equipment.  I have doubts about transports but am holding  small positions in airlines and shipping.  I am avoiding Health care and consumer discretionary

Blygh   

[sd]

I have to concede- that I think you have a far better sense of macro cause and effect than I-
I also agree- Technology is the wave of the future- but in the short term- prices have been driven up to really extended PE's -
I think Clorox is now trading at a 20+ multiple for cryin out loud-
I think we are also in a highly politicized climate that will affect stocks in the short term-
Take your pick as to what can influence the markets- look at that drop the other day on Fake news about Trump collusion-
Budget talks, US Funding, KOREA, Slower growth in China......None of these are new, but the Market picks and chooses when to take notice and use an event to take profits on- or shrug off- I think the balance would be to see it sell-off rather than push much higher with all the uncertainty.
And most funds have had a great year if they stayed long until now- Why not lock it in for their better returns- particularly should the market sell-off here at year end- They will have finally beaten the Benchmark!
we had a 'recovery' but these knicks at the armor reflect the potential for a larger reaction on something more significant-
I think it's time to girdle thy loins a bit- and trade cautiously.
If tax reform passes, Industrials should do great-
Aerospace and defense - We cannot let up-on that as an Investment sector for the US safety- but we've had a big run there-
I would think Biotech should be a must-own- in every diversified portfolio-
And I personally will go long Robo or Botz both- but they are getting a bit less expensive every day it seems- I will scale in - hopefully lower still from here-
as the underlying theme of AI and robotics will only get much larger-but you have to consider - at what valuation have these been pushed to relative to the
actual value on the balance sheets?
What's BRKB avg PE these days? I bet Warren is shaking his head at how much things have appreciated.

Be cautious with those 3x to offset-the others- I know you are well aware of the issue with the daily rebalancing and degredation-As well as the potential for a sharp counter move-
Thanks again for the mention of Nail though-Caught aq nice quick gain for the wife's account as well as mine-

I'm still long a number of Vanguard Funds- and a handful of stocks- Don't want to try any short positions- Dec- Past year- or year before- ate my lunch as i traded against the primary trend with some leverage-My Negative Bias- and got whipsawed pretty quick and hard.

I'm still struggling with the Trader/Investor- Jeckyll and Hyde between accounts-

Thanks for sharing! And a quick recovery!

[sd]

12.7.17 pm late Day- see a partial upside in Botz, not reflected in Robo- Markets higher today-
Taking a Buy-stop Botz 100 stop $23.50 limit $23.60

[sd]

Closed up shop an hour before the close, and had the opp to get a few trades in-
I went Long NAIL, TQQQ, (leveraged plays) ROBO,BOTZ, and BABA- Looked at SQ, and -although it has made a turn and base, still not looking ready to move higher-
OSTK looking similar- as well as NVDA- all have some exposure to bitcoin, all started lower 11-28 in lockstep- with the Tech decline- meanwhile , GBTC did not decline- with direct exposure to bitcoin-

The potential for a rate hike is near- this coming week- and that could impact housing rates and home builders -pointed out by Cramer. So, the Nail position could be vulnerable - and being highly leveraged, I will need to not allow this to drop much-It's early on making the turn after going lower from where i sold it. It didn't decline substantially, so i think I'm getting back in close to where i exited. It did drop down to $83, and had a prior high of $95- so even a 12% trailing stop would have easily been taken out- and potentially it could have easily dropped another 20% in another sell-off day
Cat position moved up some,closing at a new high. CBOE closed up 1% higher than the recent base- also a new high- CBOE has been a position, and my choice for a reentry vs CME based on the less volatile slope but comparable % moves over a period of time.
IBKR financial- Interactive Brokers- also a trading platform i use- Up 4% this week after gapping higher last week- Mentioned this previously- but the financials were not a sector involved when Tech sold off. Sector Rotation - Where the Tide of Investment dollars flows up one Tributary, as the Tide flows out of another.
This is not just one fund selling, but numerous funds liquidating some of their positions in concert-together- perhaps Algos triggering Algos as they monitor the direction of the sells and buys- Perhaps Algos use stops based on selling momentum as well as price levels?

[sd]

Did some shopping today- While i own some DIA, went long with size using DDM 2x the DIA. also overweight IAI- Brokerages ETF-
Still holding NAIL, but it's now in losing territory and i can allow it to slide perhaps $3 lower

That $10.38 Riot position went over $33.00 for a while today-If I had any size invested, I would have sold 1/2 and left the remainder to run-
I see Bitcoin/crypto currency litecoin-Ethereum, thru coinbase etc,- is still the hot subject on CNBC with some proponents giving it a $ Million dollar valuation in 20 years-Makes you want to run right out and Buy some-
While Bitcoin or it's successors/competitors may be the currency used in 20 years- it's likely much like the Tech bubble of 2000- Few survived, and valuation resets were brutal. Present action is greed and pure speculation- lottery ticket...
For those that didn't experience the Hype and momentum of that era, it's easy to believe the hype you hear about the new "Digital Currency" of the Future-
As with any momentum reaching excess, the music stops when there isn't another buyer to pay more. When that occurs with bitcoin and similar products is anyone's guess-
CBOE and CME opened trading Futures in Bitcoin this week - but not allowing it to be shorted? Out of my price range regardless.
CBOE still moving higher- while CME (not a position) is basing here after already running up with momentum.
Novogratz -Early backer of Bitcoin- on CNBC tonight-giving warnings-but agrees this could go on for months- He is starting a Fund-Galaxy Investment partners- coming out in a week-or so- www.cnbc.com/2017/09/26/mike-novogratz-reportedly-planning-500-million-digital-assets-fund.html
Another counter trade to bitcoin as a digital store of value- is that it replaces Gold- - and a Gold short may be a pair trade-to the Crypto

[sd]

DEJA VUE! Brian kelly came on CNBC tonight talking about RIOT as a pseudo bitcoin company- Which I already knew it had quit being a failed biotech and became Riot Blockchain- This is exactly the HYPE of the dot-com bubble revisited- Back then, I bought and traded a company called Multiple Zones- that went from $6 to $54.00 in one day- I put trailing stops in for my Mother (Everybody was trading then) and her shares sold at $48 near the Close- I Held mine- and i had also called my EJ Broker to buy some in that account--
One of the lead stories that night was the little unknown stock that had gained so much that day- an callers were declaring it to be a Fraud! The website they had set up had 4 items for sale- a printer catridge, some other minor office supplies- I immediately put in a market sell order- but my broker had gone home for the day-
and we had an ice storm that night- Lost power at the house! In a panic, the next AM i drove to the Brokers office- He got there and had power- about 15 minutes before the open- and i begged him to get on line and put in a Sell!- He did, and i think i actually got out with a profit-
FUNNY- While i am writing this, we are watching CNBC and Riot -since the CNBC news has steadily sold off in After hours from $27 down progressively to $24.60.
I can feel for the guy that bought it today at $33.00 and then he hears the "Fraud" story on CNBC!
It will be interesting to see how low it goes - and- since the reality of this Biotech -turned Blockchain is now exposed- i have no alternative but to put in a market sell order and dump this off- i knew the history behind this- posted it either in this thread or in the horserace-
Fortunately, my entry was $10.38 and I'll likely sell above that level- But the Music has stopped- at least for this Hyped product-

[sd]

Last thoughts for this pm- Life is fragile and short- Mom- Age 90 - had to have a pacemaker change out with a De-fib cadillac add-on- done today and all is well.
Grandmother lived until 99 + 11 months without the technology available today-
Living past the year 83 for males is likely - Retire when? Better plan for surviving a lot longer than you expect thanks to modern medicine-
As i think about planning for the final 1/3 of one's life- Retirement age 65? live another 30 years until 95? On who's dime?
The one day hospital check-in to being released is $11,000.00 according to the paper I read in the hospital today. Doesn't take long to eat into that $100,000.00 savings you might have set aside.... A week's stay, and your life's work and scrimping to save is wiped out- in the course of a 1 week stay.....
Better get this investing stuff preparing for the future!

[ira85]

You hit the nail on the head identifying 2 BIG personal finance issues, living a long time and the ever-rising cost of health care. I made a major career decision 19 years ago. I decided to give up a profitable self-employed business and take a salaried job for less money, solely because the salaried job had good health benefits. Best move I ever made, by far. Medical costs have kept rising. My income, minus healthcare costs, at my old job would have gone down substantially. But my current salaried job has kept the excellent medical coverage and protected me from rising healthcare costs. I've come out way ahead. I caught a lucky break. Not everyone has such an option.

I don't have confidence anyone has a good solution to rising healthcare costs. Twenty years ago the rise of HMO's was supposed to hold costs down. They may have helped, but sure didn't solve the problem. New treatments and new technologies keep coming and each one introduces new costs. And drug companies have learned to be more aggressive in pricing and holding off generics. Lots of issues. But healthcare has risen far more than other cost-of-living elements and has done so for at least the last 30 years. Until some solution is found, many of us will face tough times at some point when faced with over-whelming medical costs.

And then there's the issue of living longer and the outrageous cost of nursing home care. My mother is 91 and has some concern she may out-live her resources. With the supply and demand equation shifting with aging baby-boomers the costs of nursing homes would likely go up, seems to me. I doubt most people can increase savings and investment returns enough to compensate for the rising costs. Gee, that's kind of gloomy. Guess I should go buy some Bitcoin and cheer up. -ira

[sd]

It sounds like you made a solid employment choice IRA- Healthcare is a complex issue-and -at today's costs, a benefit to be appreciated-
The fees charged in the medical profession don't simply rise with inflation, but increase substantially-But look at what the benefit-end result is-
If the Industry wasn't motivated by capitalism, would the drug and medical device companies be so trying to be leading edge? Doubtful-
The cost of healthcare only increases-but so does the lifespan- My Mother took care of her mother for her final 10 years- as an almost sole caregiver 24/7 except for the weekly trip to the store and an occasional visitor. I expect my wife and i will try to do the same when called upon. It's what families used to do as long as it was manageable.
As you noted- those of the Baby -boomer generation will require plenty of nursing care that will not be considered affordable-by most- A long term stay in a facility can wipe out savings quickly- and i'm not sure what would be covered by gov't-medicaid etc.

There are some insurance policies- long term care - and some annuities can be set up with long term care riders- but these are relatively expensive products for their return benefit- And , they are somewhat complex and- for most, these would be luxury adds to an underfunded retirement account. - The majority of us need to start with a plan to live on more than a paltry SS check - because the retirement "nest egg" needs to be much larger than most of us realize-and- Life Happens-
Still need to be invested in the stockmarket- and not go all conservative- all bonds-all annuity- because inflation erodes the value of any conservative savings,- and depreciates the value of what one has set aside-
Regarding Annuities- My mother had put about $100k into one some 10 years or so ago- and her $100k is still there and she gets a monthly check- and has no market downside risk. My wife and i did something similar with a financial planner with some of our savings- It is pegged to a Barclay's index that will give us a low % growth-but a guarantee of no loss of principal-and guaranteed withdrawal amts- Ask me in 20 years if this was a wise investment- I'm not that sure -but i trust the adviser to guide me properly.
I also put some funds -through the same adviser- into an actively managed Equis account- but it has a high 1.70 exp ratio-but no other fees- The account is actively managed, and has taken some short positions on occasion- So -if they hold up well in a market sell-off, that's worth paying for-
The remainder , I try to manage- Just wish i had someone convince me when i was 25 years old that investing for the future was essential- but i wouldn't have listened at the time-Still trying to play catch-up at this late date- but i won't have the benefit of decades of compounded growth-

Too busy living life, kids, work, play. Just today tried to pass that-start early wisdom- on to a couple of our young engineers-

A talk with a financial planner- Fiduciary- Like Ric Edelman- may give better perspective to outline the bigger picture-
www.edelmanfinancial.com/ I catch his radio show on the weekends-along with a few others on the local stations- Most advisory services offer a Free consultation and review of your personal situation- I would advise anyone to check in their area for a Registered Adviser that is a 'fiduciary'- and talk with several different ones-For a Free initial consultation to give an objective overview of one's actual situation- You are not committed to do any business with them- and a Fiduciary is required to be upfront on all fees and expenses- and to put the investor's interests 1st-
A personal note- I would not go to an Edward Jones adviser-

Many of us are asking the same questions as we get to our "GoldenYears" !

[sd]

Darn these busy Days! And Darn those politicians if they can't get their act together and pass the darn bill-
Remember Jeb and the Clampetts??? Making me get up and adjust every darn stop-loss into lock-in profits territory-
Should toss these embedded politicians to the roadside with a 3 term limit-
Not turning this into a political discussion- but the markets like Trump's approach- and so does my P & L statement !

Anyways- If i had real gumption- and very deep pockets- As Blygh noted- i'd be shorting the Bitcoin mania- While RIOT was a double for my little trade-
it touched the mid 40's yesterday and today- However- market mania can push this much higher- or - when the lights come on bright- the scurry to jump ship may be a sight to behold- Such a doubting Thomas Are i! Even the kids in the office are talking about Bitcoin and putting their lunch money in......My belief is that History repeats- and it will just be a huge shake-out - Of course, since i wasn't an early 'investor' - I'm simply sour grapes for having missed the boat!

Well, as the year IS winding down, I have taken a few moments to look at every chart, and - This is the WEEK- politicians better deliver- or i think the Funds take profits to lock in the gains on their balance sheets- Look at how we got here- and look at how some sector rotations have transformed the markets-

I wouldn't mind a cleansing of the balance sheet-Quick market sell-off and Reset of Valuations might be healthy- Actually looking forward to the New year to see if I can muster up enough diligence in my approach to have a repeat of this year- it's not over yet, but it's been a decent year - and i didn't screw it up going all leveraged bearish! While that may sound like a flip comment- I have found that my personal bias -and suspicions- has not been engaged this year- much to my benefit. And Education.
A number of Authors have expanded on our limiting belief systems- and how we extend that to the world around us- Often in the form of a belief or bias that something will change the present to conform with our thinking -for the better or the worse- While many of us older folks recognize that this market is on historically long legs and perhaps thin ice, it could potentially continue to climb higher without a major sell-off-
My answer to that is to be ready to adjust stops a bit tighter - and be willing to reenter when I get whipsawed and price moves higher- But- Curiously enough, that approach has worked out OK as I exited some of the larger tech names and they have simply continued to decline- I am "concerned" presently in some of the more futuristic ETF's- ROBO, BOTZ - I managed to sell them in the upper trend and just reentered on the pronounced pullback- Same with the booming Nail- just tightened stops close again. On the Investment side- I hold a few diversified INTL funds- along with VOOG, VUG, and i've tightened across the board-
I even own WOOD- a sector ETF on Forestry production- that gets me some diversification .
All of this gets me to thinking about the 5 stocks or ETF's i will select for the Investment Race- With up to 5 picks- it offers a bit of diversification- Will have to give that some real thought-
Hmmm- Pressure's on- 6 days to Christmas and haven't got the spouse her present yet- Don't know if she'd care for "Stocks and Commodities" mag- or "Active Trader'
Touch choices ...so little time....

[sd]

With stops in place, I haven't yet taken the time this pm to check what is standing- Got 5 email notifications of stops executed- Including IBKR, CBOE,
TQQQ, SKYY. With the Tax Bill now confirmed by the house and Senate- congratulations to the politicians for finally getting something accomplished that should be a big boost to the US economy- Presently, I'm content to continue to employ tighter trailing stops- and simply build a larger cash position for 2018- Should the markets get a fresh wind, I may jump in- but no point in forcing trades- I'm out of tune with what is moving the markets presently, so, Nail is up, Cat up, Botz and ROBO holding, Materials up- AA popping past 3 days (not a position) Industrials, energy - I'll look at some of the Value Factor funds- they were noticeably strong recently.

[sd]

Bitcoin got a Bite taken out today! VDE - Energy position popped up 2%, Nail gained 3% - tightened the trailing stop .... and nothing else stopped out More green than red-
apparently still holding a partial CBOE position - surprise to me- will tighten stops on it - Missed including it with the prior qty sell- Markets were tepidly up today I gather- Tried to set a stop $123.40 but Vanguard won't allow me to place a stop if the overnight Bid price is lower-- I have to be at or below the Bid-
IB will allow me to set any stop I select- regardless of after hours pricing-

The best time to place a stop in Vanguard will be during market hours if the bid-ask in after hours is wide.

[sd]

Perhaps i should just ignore the trading account until the weekends- less tinkering and tweaking seems to be more profitable as I don't try to micromanage pennies in stops-
Nail popped very nicely today +2% in a continuation of the strength in the home builders- It makes it easier to hold as the trend has now gone well into the green - and stops are guaranteed a profit while not encroaching too tightly-
Ira's comment about EXAS's huge 300% run in 2017 prompted me to view the chart tonight- and i'll be buying 30 with a buy-stop order/limit 54.85- $55.10 with attached stop-loss 52.50.
I did well in exiting CBOE , and the recent base will provide me a narrow Risk entry at 124.85 -125.10 and a $123.00 stop-loss- doesn't get much better than less -2% .
Will also be buying 100 DBB (Base metals) limit $19.55
Also some LIT- At this point offers a relatively low risk entry and play on the lithium battery market- doesn't seem that will go away in 2018....Recent pullback and base offers a defined swing low and decent R:R
Quite Frankly, i haven't had time this week - or last- to review the markets- so i'm jumping in at the last moment with these trades for 2017-

re: THE INVESTMENT rACE-

2018 is around the corner- I think the economy sets up well with the passage of the Tax Bill and moderate Fed rate hikes-
Unemployment is lower, Industrials and Infrastructure in 2018, Global economic growth should be an outperformer, Defense spending should remain strong- (ITa) .
lARGE CAP GROWTH SHOULD BENEFIT-
sMALL AND MID CAP gROWTH/VALUE
tECHNOLOGY- SHOULD PROVIDE LEADERSHIP- BUT I THINK THE AI/ROBOTICS Is a sector i want to focus-
Biotech? i will always want to have some exposure - still a leading technology
Healthcare? Yeah, somebody needs to be changing the diapers- perhaps at a reduced government rate!
Exposure to Europe - ? financials?
Exposure to emerging mkts- India? Broader -?