SD's 2017- Seeking long term relationship with trending...

[sd]

9.25.17 note-
Largely cash positions- after last week's puyllbacks. Holding BABA, AZO in Van. AZO pulled back sharply the day after i entered with a big $35.00 drop. I hadn't set a stop on the entry,
and set one below that drop, fortunately, it since moved back higher-
EEM stop is at $45.00 , likely to get taken out today...
Been a very busy work week & work at Home week....
eDIT UPDATE- EEM stopped out as anticipated at $45 at the open. I guess that Rash from holding too much % cash is causing that itching trigger sensation?

[sd]

I'm cash long in most areas- However, I hold a position in AZO entered just last week- The position looked to be doing well, and immediately tanked the day after i purchased it in Vanguard.
Aside from the reason to take the entry- it had a Theme to support a higher move- sells autoparts and goodness knows there will be a lot of autos needing parts after the 2 hurricanes- it was also a reversal of trend trade -
I took the long trade in Vanguard- chart looked decent- everything a GO....and it was either the very next day or the following , it completely sold off- and i had failed to put in a stop-loss-
I realized my error- I think my entry was in the 570 area and price was down to 531 - on a big one day drop down- So i took a swig of Castor Oil, (Mom used it back in the Day to cure Us!!!)
and i set a stop @ 529- The sell-off was large compared to the average daily move, and fortunately has since stepped back up higher- Sometimes it's good to remind one's self that we trade in percentages- and not dollars- because a $35 drop on a $560 dollar stock is not the end o the world- But, it is disheartening to take a relatively full position and have it turn South - but it happens- I could have taken the time after the trade had filled to put in the stop-loss- but failed to bother to do so-
So- consider the trade entry- perhaps it was $570, I could have had a tight stop-loss in at $560- for a small potential loss, but instead get home and see a 535 close-That just has to piss you off for the lack of Rigor to consider setting the earlier stop- and taking a very small and controlled loss- Now, I am setting a stop-loss below the closing low - and it potentially could gap down and open much lower- and my stop is already 2x as wide as what it would be if i had paid attention and put one in.

Darn, I got lucky- Price moved up higher- and now i am doing damage control by raising my stop up to minimize the potential loss based on each day's closing price-

HERE is the Difference in Traders/Investors- A trader-despite the mistakes- Chhoice A ....will take the loss and try to learn from it and move on- The Trader -that takes a loss and allows that loss to grow has now become an Investor- with HOPE his best friend- Choice B One approach is to take the Castor Oil Medicine- it tastes bad, but it's One and done,....and decided rather quickly.
The other approach can become a slow malaise - perhaps it's malignant and will never regain it's past potential peak....
And, the reason to choose approach A or B is wired into our individual psychology. As we recognize that our psychology defines-or influences- our approach to the market;
we become more self-aware of what triggers us to react - and possibly in ways that are not in our best interests. it goes back to how comfortable we are with taking on Risk and achieving a higher reward- or protecting what we have already earned.....
AZO was a trade based on a "Theme'- future demand will be higher due to the hurricanes- past chart price action indicates a large downtrend- Will this hurricane catalyst be sufficient to turn this stock higher? Quite honestly, I have no way to know if this will turn the stock higher yet, or if the reasons for the decline will continue to drive the price lower- I can only hope that price will appreciate higher- but now that i have had a serious price swing low pull back- i am more concerned with reducing my potential loss - but not trailing a stop too tight- The oipportunity is to put the stop at the entry today- so it can be a break-even trade - or slightly below- because the original premise for the trade was invalidated by the price action. Now, my stop-loss is up to the point of entry- without giving it much elbow room- $570.00- That's pretty much of the value of the 4 ema and aggressive- but If i can exit the trade at the cost of 2 commissions ( $7 + $ 7 ) on a $3,000 position, it's small change. Much better than taking that $200.00 loss !

[sd]

nice declines - buy-stop orders BABA, Lit, Copx,BOTZ and MU with a pullback lower limit for 9-28
EDIT 9.28 FILLED LIT,COPX,BOTZ, MU MOVED HIGHER, BABA DECLINED AND DID NOT HIT BUY-STOP-
aDDING TO THE lIT POSITION WITH A HIGHER LIMIT, XBI HAS SERIOUSLY OUTPERFORMED THE IBB , HAS BROKEN HIGHER FROM A BASE- ORDER PLACED FOR 9.29 WITH A LIMIT HIGHER THAN THE CLOSE/.

[sd]

Busy days starting a new project on the day job prohibits me from any spare time - break, lunch even, to view the market action intraday, and a later ride home ...misses catching up on any cnbc commentary- then Early to Bed, Early to Rise....

I posted a link to the stockcharts SCTR screener - Free I think - but also an instructional video link that helps to explain how the SCTR ratings are developed.
To get a pop up chart, hover the mouse over the symbol name in the Symbol list on the left side of the page- I really haven't used this valuable tool much, but i likely will refer to it as my available time is limited.

stockcharts.com/videos/?st=sctr&fv=usvs-ah-sctr Well worth watching- just a few minutes
Articles on SCTR stockcharts.com/search/?q=sctr

The SCTR page -
stockcharts.com/freecharts/sctr.html

Trading WITH Momentum - essence of short term swing trading - Over the course of this year, My most successful trades were by entering trades that already had upside momentum behind them- and going along for the ride-
I notice about myself- and likely this is true for others- we tend to stay with what we already know- There is a certain comfort level with feeling we are "familiar" with a stock- and that may become our "GO-TO" trade(s) we fall back to- But perhaps that is ignoring that it- or the sector, industry group- is going out of favor with the market?

In principle, finding those sectors that are the market leaders, and drilling down within those sectors to find the individual leaders within those groups is a sound approach.
A good example of this are the Semis- and note some of the leadership keeps leading- NVDA is presently one of those leadership stocks in that market segment- and holds a high SCTR rating- It feels as though it has come too far - yet it likely looked that way 4 months ago at a much lower price ...
Later....

[sd]

dECIDED TO PUT ON A FEW TRADES- But I'm using a Buy-Stop /with a limit on most- Did choose several from the SCTR list- The miners I am stepping back into- Just sold LIT on the pullback but it seems to have plenty of momentum- so putting back on a small entry buy-stop- see if it fills or it goes lower...
EDIT- Also going long outside of the IB acct- QQQ, new Buy-stops on Botz, LIT,MSFt, QQQ- Could have used more time to diversify.....

[sd]

WAS FILLED -ON,lit,vedl- sold Copx 26, new stp lmt copx 26.20-35. order 10-10 CBOE, MU- just on momentum...

[ira85]

I haven't taken the time yet to watch the video and read the background info on SCTR. On the face of it, seems interesting. I almost made MU my horserace entry this week. A quick look at the results shows my pick down for the week and MU up about 5%. Shoulda gone for the SCTR pick. Now I'll have to read about it, before my pick next week. Thanks SD. -ira

[sd]

Ira, I only recently started to view this, although I've been a stockcharts member for a very long time- Too busy sometimes to learn something NEW-
Narrowing the trading universe by selecting from stocks that have underlying strength, momentum has proven profitable for me this year. The SCTR listing somewhat gives you a list of strong stocks across a variety of sectors, and can also locate those that have less strength but are moving up- as well as some of the oversold bottom discarded ones if that is your cup of tea-
For me, anything that maximises screen time is a big help! Hope you find it useful!





Also bot CBOE, acls, order for EEM for 10-12 AZO should have stopped out for a small gain today $586 stop raised on weakness- Took a loss on VEDL today- Bloom may be off the rose on the miners, but with EEM breaking out, it should be good for all....

[sd]

Sold BABA in the IB account on the minor pullback today-$181.45 Entry was 172.02 Held for a couple of weeks. Excellent entry following a decline based on 2 hr chart & Elder impulse... 2 consecutive swing trades in Baba that captured some of the volatility between momentum and Reversion to the mean. Ideally today's weakness that hit my raised trailing stop will also present a similar pullback and opportunity to reenter lower and on the upswing.
Holding in another account with a wider stop...that i purchased at 178 high -ideally a longer term hold....
Several positions declined today, incl MU but I'm holding -stop in place.
Got a lucky entry in ACLS yesterday $28.30, and it gapped up today and closed up +6%
MSFT showing a momentum move up today .
CBOE also up almost 1% and closing at a new high
BOTZ and ROBO still just steady "I think i can" climbing higher-
All of these were entered with Already being in an existing uptrend as the 1st criteria for consideration....

[sd]

10.18.17 Adding a few trades from the SCTR ETF screen- Lots to choose from- but FFTY is pushing to break higher,(IBD 50) and EEMO (Emerging mkts momentum )
Baba took an upturn- Using a Buy-stop/Lmt- decided to go for a 179 stop, 181 limit-

[sd]

Was filled on EEMO, FFTY, sold On, ACLS- Will seek to repurchase ACLS lmt $33
Baba stop order-179.00 never activated- I see the high today was shown listed on the Daily chart as 179.61 but the hourly chart doesn't reflect any price above 178.05-
Today's price action was indecisive, so I'll cancel the trade,and put in a low limit Buy

[sd]

Quick notes 10.21.17 - I elected to enter BABA as it neared the close- I had anticipated a wider decline/pullback- and indeed this short decline on the daily could be a prelude to a further decline-
Reviewing the Daily chart, BABA is transitioning into a more low slope trend than in recent months, and is within ATR range of the 50 ema which hasn't been touched over the prior 9 months. The potential slowing can be seen by a few trend lines over the various periods during the past 2017 year, and indicators- RSI, and Stochastic- have pushed to lower levels on the recent price pullbacks- although the uptrend is still clearly intact- This potential slowing could simply be a consolidation , sideways range developing, and a stimulus could move things higher- but the potential is also for a price drop lower-
Applying the premise that an uptrend consists of a series of generally higher highs and higher lows- a pullback and drop below the 50 ema is quite possible.
Where to set a stop-loss depends on the time frame that one makes trading decisions in- On the fast 2 hr time frame- my entry Friday as it neared the close was 177.42 (Think)
The price lows in the few days preceding had a drop lower low, a move higher, followed by a higher low, and then the pullback/entry-
For the purpose of short term trading, either swing low could be applied- but i will use the 1st lower swing low as where to bASE MY STOP-LOSS - APPROX 175.00 - "SHOULD' be valid for the
short term trade- slightly below the swing low.
I also hold a Core position -entry 178.00 - that doesn't have a stop attached-

[sd]

Busy Days- And getting home in the pm usually late- Don't get much time for the markets-None intraday- and perhaps that's a good thing.
I've mixed my short term/ fast approach with some longer position trades.
The fast approach tries to capture pullbacks - reversion to the mean- by exiting- ideally close to the peak with a tightened stop-loss and reentering as price declines-
Did this with ACLS-nice quick gain as it gapped higher- but reentered at a higher cost - didn't get to buy additional shares- Similarly, BOTZ- is solidly uptrending , with just 2 pullbacks to the 50 ema earlier this year. Both BOTZ and ROBO are focused funds on the artificial intelligence/robotics theme that seem to be driving that market segment higher-
Unless there is a sizeable pullback % wise- it is not productive to try to Time this-
Similarly , it's also true that Timing based on price to trend moves requires some width in those moves to be worthwhile- What about Timing in a longer term portfolio? It's been 16 months since the SPY (Market) has had a 5% + decline- and smaller 3% declines are more common . Consider that the SPY is up about 16% YTD, The Nasdaq 26% , and that's if you simply own the broad index.
At some point in the future- we KNOW we likely will have a substantial correction- and that the markets are already considered to be highly priced and "Overdue" to correct-but there are a lot of factors that come into play- including earnings- Fed Policy- Intl and political events, Fiscal policy, .....and investor Greed and Fear.

While the "active Trading account" can keep me occupied- in my spare time- The less active retirement account is the larger one that i will rely on in the future .

Unfortunately, a number of people will consider their trading account to be the basis for their future financial security- That is likely a huge mistake for the vast majority that think they will beat the markets year in and year out- My belief is that if one can survive the learning curve and then excel in Trading- year in, year out, that should be done with monies not
allocated as part of the retirement approach. In speaking with some fellow younger employees in our organization- some haven't given retirement funding any consideration - They think they have plenty of time-
Ric Edelman is a financial advisor I listen to on the weekends- www.edelmanfinancial.com/
He also has a number of books out there - and I think his "Truth about Retirement plans and IRAs is very informative and an easy read... and inexpensive-

www.amazon.com/Truth-About-Retirement-Plans-IRAs-ebook/dp/B00DPM7U4E/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1509287952&sr=8-1&keywords=ric+edelman+the+truth+about+retirement

My advice to fellow employees is to 1st take advantage of getting all of the employer match in the employer's funded IRA, Then Max out the individual ROTH Ira with after-tax monies ,
Then fund an Individual IRA - The Roth will never be taxed on future gains-

There are so many things that demand chunks out of a paycheck - That all seem more pressing than putting monies away for the future retirement- golden years-
I joke that for most of us, the "Gold" to be found in our Golden Years will be that we have to use the bathroom more often!

Edelman's books are well written, - and the radio, TV shows can be found on his website if interested.


As far as Active Trading goes- and "timing" the trades- My Year end "active" Trading results are a few months away- but one account is on Par with the Tech QQQ's, another with the SPY
performance wise- after commissions.
The question the active trader has to ask - is - If I simply purchased the benchmark and held it, I would have eliminated all other commissions-
The "fear" is that it will go down in value - right after we Buy it-most likely.

Active financial planners/managers- such as Edelman- don't necessarily try to time the markets with stop-losses, but they do rebalancing of the account-
One needs to know whether their retirement accounts are actively managed, the expenses of that management, the diversification; how often are they rebalanced, and any ees associated with rebalancing, the funds EXP ratio, 12-b-1 fees and "Other" A Fiduciary planner will not be putting one into accounts that don't put the Investor 1st-
Yes, there is a FEE for active management- usually a % of assets under management- 1% example. If the funds they select have low expense ratios compared to some actively managed high cost mutual funds, and get a comparable return, the fee is likely earned. The same thing can be done through Vanguard funds- They offer actively managed funds as well as low cost ETFs.
There are no load fees, no commissions to invest, trade Vanguard funds inside a Vanguard brokerage or retirement account.

[sd]

Market is ending the week up nicely- New Highs- Good jobs report +260,000 helped-
Lots of gaps on earnings-so I've been holding positions and had some nice upside moves-Did stop out on FFTY and LIT- Will look at that this weekend-

Had a Eureka moment this week- Company is changing IRA custodians and going back into an account that offers a lot of Sun America funds- I was lobbying for a change- but I was hoping that we could go to Vanguard -brokerage accounts. When they explained why they had selected where they wanted to go, I was also told that the new custodian declared that 17 of the 18 funds offered had beat the benchmark- Went to the website, reviewed the charts, and some that used the S&P500 as the declared benchmark indeed outperformed the index.
I compared the 10 and 5 year charts of the index and the funds- - For example- some of the funds have an .69% expense ratio- Well, you actually cannot buy the index itself-You can buy Funds and ETF's that essentially mirror the make up of the S&P 500- For that- I compared SPY and VOO- and found that both SPY and VOO outperformed the funds that beat the index over the 5-10 years by almost double- for a very small Exp ratio- I will double check my comparisons this weekend- Has to be that SPY and VOO also priced in all dividends were reinvested-? Whereas the S&P500 index may not include dividends? Doesn't sound correct-
Note that the mutual funds include dividends reinvested.

Edit- the S&P 500 TR is the ticker to use to see the effects and performance of the S&P with the dividends reinvested!
The financial adviser did not realize that his comparison of the American Funds included dividends reinvested compared unfairly to the s&P 500 without dividends-
Morningstar graphs demonstrate the comparison with the S&P500TR- and shows the outperformance that the dividends included in the S&P returns.

[sd]

Putting some freed cash back to work- Baba had a tick down close at the fast ema, stop was raised to the low of that bar- it has since moved higher and potentially will seek out a new high this week- The strategy of allowing minor pullbacks is to allow me to stay in the trade for a longer term and larger gain- The very fast 4 ema is arbitrary- Price closing at or below is a concern-may call for a raise in the stop-loss- to the low of the penetration of that day's bar.
Added a few more positions- CBOE stopped out yesterday at a minor tight stop on the pull away- Set a limit to reenter at 112. Nice trend-it pulled back to a low today of 112.57, but is presently higher-
Added RSX, PYPL,CAT,FB
Found a break at Lunch to post. EXAS is ripping!
ACLS stopped out today.
Also added to the Vanguard Energy position VDE





CBOE filled at raised limit 112.50