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Post by sd on Apr 21, 2022 7:57:17 GMT -5
4-21-2022
Futures again in the Green!
Markets finding reasons to go higher-
TSLA beat on Earnings- is higher premarket....+8% -glad i held....
TSLA was able to avoid a lot of the supply chain issues, as well as having the capability to rewrite the software in it's chip supply-
Hopefully This will also translate into a higher move in F, my other EV position. TSLA is the higher net profitability company, with a big technological lead...
I'll have to consider when to reenter the energy/commodity positions that sold off on the recent pullback-
I will add to the jets position-at the open today- failed to do so yesterday- got busy outside-
and i intend to spend most of today outside as well. - Got some grafting to do...
I now have 20 k in cleared cash- so hoping to get back into the energy names at a discount- ideally they will see a drop lower today-
Yesterday I spent a short bit of time on the Prosper Options site with Scott Bauer-
He got reactive/ defensive when one of the members suggested that one of the trades that Scott had suggested had 0 chance of ending up In the Money!
Like a dog with a bone, Scott had trouble letting it go- and seemed to over react to the negative comment-
For those that are interested in learning basic Options- I would recommend TastyTrade.com 1st - and taking their free on line courses-
www.tastytrade.com/learn-courses
Their on line training -and daily discussions of different options strategy - is a great place to start.
I haven't yet tried to apply Options trades- but covered calls and spreads ; such basic strategies should be a no brainer- particularly in a retirement account-
I'll be adding to JETS at the Open- Airlines - UAL reported big expectations for it's future business- despite the higher fuel costs-
Added 1 share TSLA @ the open -0 I expect it may get to $1200 or a net +10% upside move to prior resistance.
added to the KMI (nat gas position)
Finally profitable in GBTC yesterday...
I'm going to add to the AG focus- Buying MOO - had a gap high open, followed by a pullback - waiting to see how the other Ag trades perform-looking weak pre 10 am.
Added to the PID dividend position
opening a position in EPD
NUE beart earnings- nice gap higher! I have a limit $175 to add to my position.
Repurchasing XOP as it makes a new high
Adding MLPA- ETF that covers a broad spectrum of companies like EPD-
I own PID- Intl dividend fund- Adding DIV.
GNR- S&P Global Nat resources with exposure to Ag, Energy, metals and Mining- One to consider for broad exposure...
I'll start a partial position here and plan to add on a pullback for the longer term expectation that these categories all increase in value-/demand as we see a US and global recovery.
www.ssga.com/us/en/intermediary/etfs/funds/spdr-sp-global-natural-resources-etf-gnr
I'm selecting from an ETF scan that delivers returns with a high + 85 SCTR rating- Typically, this will be those funds in Uptrends-
Note that the returns indic ate which areas tend to be showing strength- Theres a common theme of Energy, commodities, nat resources.
Time to go Graft!
EOD- Well, the markets did me no favors today!
All of the indexes in the red- and what looked like a promising start evaporated-
Glad I spent the day outside!
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Post by sd on Apr 22, 2022 8:43:42 GMT -5
4-22-2022
Markets opening lower- looking to see a 3rd losing week!
TSLA looks to be a whipsaw for sure! See if it holds the $975.00 recent range lows ...
Account values dropping!
I have stops in the IB positions, but only a few on the Van positions-
up this am- JETS, ICLN, TSLA- pre 10 am.....
@ 2 pm, this is a market sell-off across the board-
Stops executed on those positions I had stops on-
Even the defensive XLU is tanking~! and Healthcare! I took both of these as potentially defensive positions- and they certainly are not performing as i expected.
Going through and doing some selling-Fm, KMI, JETS,XLU,XLV,EPD,PID<DIV-
Dow Closes down 979 pts, -2.8, S&p -2.7%, Nas -2.55
Across the board weakness - Some positions that I held I reduced my position size by 50%, selling off 1/2-
Ugly end of the week and I'm somewhat aggravated by not being more proactive earlier this week in adjusting stops on all positions-
Out of all my positions, only TSLA finished barely in the Green today- after selling off yesterday,.
I'm raising a lot of cash- let's see this market have that big drop lower and maybe get the Feds to go ahead and raise the darn rates, 50 or 75 bpts. I may take that reentry into DOG and possibly SARK Monday.
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Post by sd on Apr 22, 2022 16:54:31 GMT -5
END OF WEEK 4-22-2022 SUMMARY
The Van account $46,559.85
ira $24,450.79
Roth $22,109.06
IB ROTH $17,132.00
cOMBINED VALUE: $63,691.85
Compared to the start of 2022 $61,721.00 - SO i'M STILL IN THE GREEN BY $1,970.00 FOR A NET YTD GAIN OF +3.19%
cOMPARED TO THE MARKET INDEXES FROM jAN START-
The Indexes relative performances:FROM THE START OF THE YEAR...
The Indexes relative performances:
DIA- 364.07 - - 338.27 = -25.80 = -7%
SPY 476.30 - - 426.04 = -50.26 = -10.55%
$COMPQ 15,732.50 - 12,839 = -2,893 = -18.39%
cOMBINED INDEX =-17.73% /3 = -5.91%
rELATIVE PERFORMANCE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN MY ACCOUNT & THE INDEXED AVERAGES = + 9.10
hAVEN'T DONE THE EOW SUMMARY IN A FEW WEEKS-
The Performance graph tells the story:Loads of RED!!!
Notice that the only group that is profitable YTD is ENERGY!
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Post by sd on Apr 23, 2022 6:36:19 GMT -5
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Post by sd on Apr 24, 2022 17:00:59 GMT -5
It's Sunday pm 4-24- ; the boat is hooked up and the gear is in place-
Weather will be superb Monday, and so it's a trip to the lake as the prime agenda- Will return in the late afternoon - may get back in before the market's close- Depends on how tempermental the fish are!!!
Futures this Sunday pm look decidedly lower -2% + across the board; but a lot can change overnight.
Good Luck!
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Post by sd on Apr 26, 2022 8:30:39 GMT -5
Tues- futures red
Added to xop at this lower level...
Watching TSLA to see if it holds the recent lows of the prior weeks $974.00-978.
Holding some partial positions in Funds exposed to Ag, waiting to review the market direction after 10 am-
Oil is higher today - added to XOP
Sold tsla FOR A LARGER LOSS- i HAD PULLED MY 970 STOP-LOSS,premarket open- Having intended to monitor TSLA- but did not until i returned this am to find it down $100 $890- and sold it there in disgust for my being lax- Sometimes we get our just desserts- and complaceny in this market delivers it as a fine dish to be savored slowly.
Also, TSLA shares moving lower on Elon Musk's proposed purchase of TWTR- thinking that Musk will liquidate some of his TSLA position to buy TWTR....Accurate- or not- the market is selling stocks....
The markets Sell-off continues-
Markets closed down across the board....
Googl disappoints- drops-5% after hrs-
MSFT beats but only slightly-was up initiallyafter hrs- but will it be enough? Now , it is being sold in the after hours.
I did take a position in DOG- shorts the DOW; RWM- short small caps did not get filled on my limit....
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Post by sd on Apr 27, 2022 8:20:52 GMT -5
4-27-2022 Markets appear ready to open higher- With a GOOGL "miss" and a MSFT beat on earnings, Tech- FAANG reporting later this week will be a big driver for the direction of the markets- and large cap tech in particular- These names comprise a large % of the index, and how their earnings are interpreted- as well as their valuations at these lower porices - sets the tonne for direction-
Except for AAPL, most are well off their highs and below the 50 day ema....
It seems that we are too far down to be considering short etfs-missed that boat- but perhaps not-
Holding a small position in DOG-
www.proshares.com/browse-all-insights/insights/part-i-the-significance-of-portfolio-hedging/
www.proshares.com/strategies/leveraged-and-inverse?gclid=Cj0KCQjw06OTBhC_ARIsAAU1yOWRxuM3JEbm3yEdJrr3L23RyoseBTNTBDZIjXJtZrbGJxtcPVmgqaUaAgb3EALw_wcB#strategy_geared_page_tabs
www.proshares.com/strategies/leveraged-and-inverse?gclid=Cj0KCQjw06OTBhC_ARIsAAU1yOWRxuM3JEbm3yEdJrr3L23RyoseBTNTBDZIjXJtZrbGJxtcPVmgqaUaAgb3EALw_wcB#strategy_geared_page_tabs
www.proshares.com/strategies/leveraged-and-inverse?gclid=Cj0KCQjw06OTBhC_ARIsAAU1yOWRxuM3JEbm3yEdJrr3L23RyoseBTNTBDZIjXJtZrbGJxtcPVmgqaUaAgb3EALw_wcB#strategy_geared_page_tabs
www.proshares.com/strategies/leveraged-and-inverse?gclid=Cj0KCQjw06OTBhC_ARIsAAU1yOWRxuM3JEbm3yEdJrr3L23RyoseBTNTBDZIjXJtZrbGJxtcPVmgqaUaAgb3EALw_wcB#strategy_geared_page_tabs
Perhaps when we rally higher- not just on a 1 day bounce, these may be worth considering for a drop to the downside- the 1x should not see the decay found in the 2x,3x,
With the $VIX above the $30 level, and these charts all close to the prior highs- perhaps the short trade is too extended-
The SARK etf is a direct short against Cathy Wood's ARKK
This performance chart - a good time to enter the SARK was on those Rallies in ARKK - but note the substantial percentage drop in SARK during March- This appears to be an outsized drop % wise compared to the ARKK move during that period! I thought SARK was a 1x inverse to ARKK ......
The 50 day perf chart.... looks almost 1:1
So, we presently look extended here- Time for ARKK to rally when the $vix declines.
www.tastytrade.com/
Buying back commodities, DBE,DBA,VEGI,DBC,added to XOP-
RWM-short the Nas.-although it could rally on any other large cap earnings beat- It's already extended here- but the tone of the markets is still bearish- and still willing to trash on any disappointment.
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Post by sd on Apr 28, 2022 8:33:10 GMT -5
Stops hit as expected on DOG,RWM- RWM was just fine- going higher- the volatility swing took me out - stops too tight...
Glad I took the Loss on TSLA the other day=-it's tanking- The TWTR buy has clobbered this stock! - Look for $750-$700 range getting hit again!.
ARKK DROPPING HARD! SARK MAKING A NEW HIGH!
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Post by sd on Apr 29, 2022 7:59:39 GMT -5
4-29-21 NAS Futures in the RED after both AAPL and AMZN give lower future guidance. INTC gives weak future guidance...
Expectations are for slower growth and lower sales as the economy slows as rates will be rising, to restrict inflation-
If fewer consumers are spending money, the demand will slow for goods, the supply issue will lessen, and -over time, higher rates will see a slowing in GDP- as this most recent reading has already seen.
TSLA selling this week was generated by Elon's selling $4 billion worth of TSLA stock-
After 2 rally days this week, just enough to draw people in thinking the bottom was in
I'll revisit taking positions in DOG,RWM as the guidance from The Tech outlook for AAPL, and AMZN and INTC sets up a bearish tone for the remainder of the year...
I didn't try to take any Tech long positions this week- but had added to some of the partial positions i had held through the selling earlier in the week-
April is winding up to be a negative month for the markets-
"“Amazon’s update was worrying as it not only put the company into its first quarterly loss since 2015, but it also painted a gloomy picture for the retail market in general,” said Russ Mould, an analyst at broker AJ Bell."
AAPL had a great quarter- but it sees slower growth in the next qtrs....
AAPL is trading at a historically high 27 PE , well above it's past average lower valuation-
AAPL CFO expects a $4-$8 Biulliuon dollar slow down/impact in the months ahead due to supply constraints...
AMZN is trading at a 44 PE- and issued it's 1st quarterly loss...
@ open- AMZN gaps down -$300
AAPL higher
I took 2 small positions in DOG, RWM at the open- wziting to see how the markets assess the earnings "News" as well as the PMI report-
ARKK is rising off yesterdays drop to a new low.
qqq's open lower, but trying to rally higher @ 10 am-
10:30 -QQQ's weaker- shorting ARKK with SARK
Midday- Indexes in the RED, short positions in the green- AAPL turning into the red- added QID short-tech.
Will hold over the weekend ....
DBLD down on SARK
Market Closes out April with a Friday hard sell-off!
Dow down- 939 pts-2.77%, Nas - 536 -4.17%;; S&P -155 pts-3.16%
I should have doubled up on my short positions earlier! Those trades were taken in the IB acct-
Even MSFT that posted very good earnings and guidance say it's price decline below the earnings release!
AAPL Closing near it's prior low in the week, and blew through it's Thursday Rally- -3.66%
AMZN saw a -14% gap down and closing near the low of today's range.
FB- lost -2.66% despite it's record beat....Closing near today's low....
I closed out the GBTC (bitcoin) trade earlier today. I had intentionally been holding a small 91 share position for weeks now without stops- just testing the waters- (shark infested)
for a -10% loss- -$300 +/- which offset the gains on the short positions.
David Keller - Market sentiment is at a historic low - and this video David keller reviews the sentiment extremes as a 'signal' over the past 25 years.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=4ZABOIy3_7Q
For the Nasdaq index, This April has been the worst month in terms of a 1 month loss since 2008!
Today was a real kick in the teeth for those that had enjoyed the prior 2 day's rally move higher-and thought we would see some upside continue....
For myself,This week i had added to those commodity & Ag positions, and energy- that i think will still be in demand in a slowing economy-
I could clearly be mistaken...and i kept a fairly large % in cash - It's been a continued decline this month....
And it's been a case of trying to lose less- By reducing market exposure- and just today I have taken short positions.
At it's best, the market is trying to reprice for a future of slower growth and less profits- That seems to be where we are heading
based on inflation, the Fed, rate hikes and the trickle down consequences that may take many months to be fully realized...
It's going to be a tough slog ahead it seems-
Cash is not a bad alternative...if the markets continue lower-
Will this year be the year the "Go Away In May" holds true?
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Post by sd on May 2, 2022 5:47:45 GMT -5
5-2-2022
Futures in the green- so I'll set stops at Breakeven on my IB short positions....and heading out to the lake today....
Good day on the lake fishing with the LOLO! Caught a dozen + but all relatively small crappie- released for another day.
But a day on the Lake is so relaxing-
My short IB positions stopped out as expected- small losses-as today the markets managed a recovery higher- miniscule profit in SARK-
Small gains in the Van accounts.
I think I'm ready to put the markets on Pause - too difficult with the choppy seesaw price action, and I cannot allow myself to sit through a 10% price move- and try to hold a position ....So, this may be ....
"GO AWAY IN MAY" ....
In the Van accounts, I'm holding some generally broad exposure to AG, Energy, Commodities, and with a large 19k cash position.
I'll review these positions this week, would like to have a portfolio that doesn't drop 20% over the next months.
The danger of trying to apply "logic" to one's positions, is that the market can find a reason to discount to new lows....
For example, I'm holding an AG fund- DBA that technically is still uptrending, but it's testing that 50 day ema....potentially a place to add further to the position....but buying the Dip if the trend rolls over is a fool's mission.
Fed should meet this week, and that will set some tone of certainity for the markets -hopefully
If the markets think the Fed actio0ns will result in a Recession, All bets are off-everything will get repriced -lower- for most....
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Post by sd on May 3, 2022 7:35:48 GMT -5
5-3-2022-
Markets waiting on the FED- Not making any trades until the Fed gives the markets a sense of where it's policies will take us in terms of rates.....
Futures YO-YOING
How much lower could the markets go?
Looking at the IBD innovator 50 fund- -It's down -30% from it's 2021 highs, but look to the left @ the 2018 lows that were made due to the restrictive Fed rate policy- So much for the more speculative stocks-even those that were once considered to be leaders in their market segment-and well below the 200 weekly ema...
Relatively speaking, The broad indexes are still holding up decently- but potentially plenty of downside room yet to drop....
QQQ's- large cap tech:
Today it's out to the garden, starting a drip irrigation systyem to reduce the hand watering .....
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Post by sd on May 4, 2022 17:55:41 GMT -5
5-4-2022 Hail Fed Chief Powell!
He reassures the markets that there is no plan to push a 75 point rate hike- and that 50 bpts is what is expected for the next sessions of rate hikes-
Markets rallied nicely following Powell's Q & A session !
Nice upswing- for a change- in the positions I'm holding in the Van accounts- Back over into the Green .....BooYah!
The question is - will this be seen as a reason for the markets to put Risk back on? Let's see how the week goes and the markets assimilates the Fed position....
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Post by sd on May 5, 2022 7:19:05 GMT -5
5-5-2022
Following yesterday's huge relief rally, Futures in the Red a bit in the premarket- with an hour to the open....
Nat gas ripping to all time highs.
Mid afternoon- Yesterday's gains are all reversing lower....Yesterday's profits- evaporating...
EOD- Glad this day is over, and that I didn't spend the day at my computer as the markets gave back what it gained yesterday!
I only had one positioin to finish the day in the green-DBA- but PDBC only gave up .42%, and the energy positions- DBE gave up just a portion of yesterday's gains- Closing -.78%
So, in terms of the relative decline from the indexes- Today was a day that I lost Less- than the respective indexes-
SPY- -3.55% ; Nasdaq -4.99% QQQ -5.04% Dow -3% -
My most volatile position was XOP- Oil & Gas Exploration etf gave up -2.60% from yesterday's very bullish upmove- and still in an uptrend, and back above the 21 ema...
Still holding 16k in cash in the Van accts, and similarly all cash in the IB- Should have jumped onto the Tech/ARKK short trade- but I chose to not get reactive - and attended to more yard/garden projects- In my Van account, I think I am positioned with a focus on energy,commodities, and AG- that I think will remain in seeing longer term demand-
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Post by sd on May 6, 2022 8:24:15 GMT -5
5-06-2022
Futures again down in the RED- Market repricing everything lower for the PE- expecting a slowing economy will see substantially reduced growth and profits....
Historic PE ratio for the S&P varies between 14-18--- AAPL used to be worth a 14 pe for many years- Is now @ 26 , and coming down ...
Jobs report strong...
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Post by sd on May 9, 2022 7:22:50 GMT -5
5-09-2022
Futures again in the RED- 1 hr before the open-
mID AFTERNOON- Energy and commodities selling off- I"m seeing a 1k loss from last week- Selling out all positions and just keeping 1 share in each position-
Account broke well below 46 K today- Energy position down -10% as the rationale for selling out of Energy is tyhat the China lockdown will not cause an increase in energy demand-
Present Van acct is 45K + change .... IB is also all in cash....
'Just too weary with this market to bother' said EEYORE...
YUP, it's MAY- Perhaps this time it's smart to "Go Away In May"-
Market volatility is too difficult and we are seeing the downtrend continue, week after week -lower and lower- As some smart ass gave his insight on CBNBC saying "we're Closer to a bottom than we have been" Take that bit of wisdom to the bank-
I've seen a 4% swing in the past week- Up 1K earlier last week,to 47K ; down 2K from that @ $45,263.00
I had been holding positions without stops, but today's volatile drop in the energy/oil prices gutted by positions from in the green into the red- and the other commodity and even AG positions went sliding deeper into the RED-
So, I sold off ALL of my positions- holding just 1 share of each -just for tracking purposes- not trusting as investments at this time- My positioning in the Energy/commodity sector had held up relatively well until this past week- volatile, but rebounding- Today's drop may just be the start of a series of lower lows-
The declines many stocks and sectors have undergone is simply remarkable - in retrospect for the minor corrections we've had since the Covid drop in March 2020and the market rotation has been severe in 2022...I recall 2018 having a 20% market decline- and was finally turned Dec 24 of that year because of a FED policy rate change reversal.
In 2007, The decline started in late October- and the bottom was finally reached in March 2009----
Just as the markets climbed to excessive highs, they can,and Do, overshoot to the downside.... Whether the FED can make a soft landing without throwing the Country into a massive recession is the question many are doubting- Also Fed Chief Powell seeming to suggest that they will not go beyond a 50 bpts hike -75 is off the table- now is receiving criticism....
This process is just beginning-to see the impact of a new FED policy change...It likely will not get resolved quickly- and expectations are that the GDP is slowing, companies that presently have good profits often give lower guidance moving forward-2022 will be a slide into a new recovery normal....
Having a % in cash is important- versus just riding a holding down lower and lower- Unless one thinks the bottom is next week, next month, the next -10% drop- We just won't know when that bottom will be in- but it likely is a longer process from even this level here, before we to reach it eventually-
Who cares that inflation is running at 6-7% when the markets are declining 20 -50% .
Losing less is a good thing at this point in time-
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Let's see how the week goes and the markets assimilates the Fed position....