SD - 2022 - A YEAR TO LOSE LESS AND TO KEEP MORE !

[sd]

12-28-2022 Up at 5 am and the futures flat! Our Raider dog was constantly chewing on his front paw- despite a benadril - An oatmeal rub seemed to provide some temporary relief-
We had brought in some freshly cut cedar wood to burn in the woodstove, and some of the sap dripped in the entry that he may have walked through-

Yesterday was an interesting day- The Renko chart was an effective tool - and the key element is that price has to have momentum in order to not generate whipsaw choppy signals.
I'll be looking for another such daytrade today- again using a relatively small number of shares- The intent is to practice daily with a few such short term trades, and -gradually- add some size if I can develop some consistent success.
Renko charts- for those that may be interested- are an offshoot from the older Japanese trading models-
They are unique in that a new Renko box does not form in a slow market-until price exceeds the box "size" . So, a sideways period where price is not moving much will not see a new box form-
Thus, some Renko Daily chart boxes may carry over several days- similarly with a weekly or monthly time frame- Using a fast time frame as I'm doing with a 2 minute and a 5 minute chart eliminates some of the volatility seen if using price bars.
Chart School-Renko- school.stockcharts.com/doku.php?id=chart_analysis:renko

Added some positions long yesterday- some Energy plays appear to be moving up-added some value positions back in -the investment IRA account -

I believe the markets will be Closed Monday, Jan 2- so the new year will start on Wed Jan 3 - a week from today...I'll be starting a new thread- in this strategies forumn- as it helps to keep me engaged- and perhaps there's an occasional tidbit with some merit for those that stop by here-

TSLA is crashing lower- shares being dumped- likely by institutional holders- down -10% just yesterday- Elon Musk declared he won't be selling any more shares for several years, but that didn't stop the freefall.
Tsla bears that had cited the extreme high valuation for TSLA were countered by TSLA bulls that TSLA was more than just a car company, it was a multi technology company- - and -finally the market is listening more to the bear's point of view. I had shorted Tsla several times using TSLQ, but failed to hold onto the short position- unfortunately- Just added an AAPD short of AAPL- Simply on slowing sales and valuation ... TSLA is showing a +3% rebound premarket...

HongKong easing covid restrictions, as is China- Expectation is that these economies have been so stalled out that the gov't has to take the approach to open up and allow Covid to sweep through-
As the China lockdown has impeded the global supply chain, many businesses are looking to resource from other countries- including AAPL.

Tax Loss selling- This has certainly been a year of losses- so tax loss selling is perhaps the Why we are not seeing a rally as many thought we would see-

From Leavitt BROS: Markets performance - Note that the years ending down don't bounce automatically higher the next year.



With the Fed and global banks still tightening into 2023, watch the sector rotations and forget what was your winners in 2021-
Look to new leadership in 2023 based on solid earnings potential, value, and guidance-
I'll be seeking some secured fixed income- like to see a +4% or higher- for a portion of the IRA-investments. But, not at a cost of the principal downtrending to get that return- Lots of things i still need to learn though...
Finding the right trades- or finding the right investments- and recognizing that the market cycle may spurn what was seen as in favor- Fickle she can be.

That being noted- I need to develop a thick enough skin to withstand some volatility to be able to stay in a winning trade for a longer hold- larger net gain- I don't have a strong conviction on many investment themes that can withstand the volatilities the markets can deliver-

One them -That seems to have investment merit- is to buy a solid dividend producer and to sell covered calls on the position- Something I need to learn how to do- how to bracket that call - It's a relatively safe strategy- to provide a level of income production....
Futures edging a bit more into the green @ 7am-

@ 8:30 am- futures are slightly green-
I'm going to not be concerned with a tepid open- We're going back to bed for some shut eye...Don't think I'll miss much
Later

nICE nAP -
wAS LATE TO SEE THIS AS A POTENTIAL SPEC TRADE- JUST RISKING 10 SHARES - LATE ENTRY- lACK OF MOMENTUM AS INDICATED BY THE BLACK adx LINE- lACK OF VOLUME

Last day for Tax Loss Selling.
Mostly red in the positions- AAPD position is in the green as AAPL continues to be sold. SSG short of semis also in the green.
TSLA was up slightly at the open- now in the red.

@ 11:30



AS TSLA tries to rally today, here's a look at the persistent decline in recent weeks. using a 15 minute renko chart to clear out the clutter.





AAPL Short AAPD is working out today!



QID closed up strong today- I should have taken a partial position before the Close but was preoccupied....

When it comes to thinking about how one trades,and considering an alteration- or a change- it requires adopting a different perspective- and an altering of what we have become accustomed to-is difficult- because- no matter the results- we wear it-like that comfortable old coat that fits us just right-

We trade the way we do because it is what we believe works for us- And -if that gives one the level of successful trades that meets one's expectations- stay with it.

What i found interesting on the Leavitt website is the results of one trader that is doing a beta test of making a lot of very small trades- with holding periods generally less than 1 minute- for a series of very small gains- or an occasional rare small loss. I think his goal is to accumulate a +1% gain over numerous trades in every day- by trading on the 1 minute time frame, set a net limit sell just a few pennies above your entry cost-
It sounds odd- and watching his trades, he has clearly left substantially higher net gains by his rapid sells within 1 minute of his entry- Net results yield a gain of over +1% for the day- and some days more- presently trading with small size during this testing period-

So, the premise is to be able to capture relatively small moves, and reduce the Risk....

[sd]

12-29-31 December is almost Done! Thank goodness! Futures are in the green, and TSLA is also up $5 -premarket-

May have to tighten a stop on AAPD to lock in gains.

Taking Raider to the vet this am, for a drop off- hope to return to view the market open-

Perhaps we see some up to the long side today and tomorrow, as institutions may shift their long allocations before the end of the year....

Infrastructure names- SLX index has a wide $2 bid/Ask spread $57.12 -$59.39


LONG UDOW @ the OPEN $56.29 50 shares - using RENKO





working....

The 1 min Renko pretty choppy- trend is to the upside though-


overlaying with the pitchfork


Trade has moved up decently- setting split stops 1/2 + 1/2 to lock in gain, and protect the entry level -
If stopped out on the 1st 1/2, will follow the trade to take a reentry

Notice that this screenshot taken @ 10:43- but Renko hasn't changed since 10:05 am


Momentum stalled, shallow pullback, stops raised - Trade is still working


Late in the up move this am-- Bought IOT on the strong upmove.




Added a few bars late on the move above consolidation- will trail with the fast psar
Here's the chart with the Pitchfork that is popular at Leavitt's


PRE 1 PM- MOM AND VOL fading, price pulling back - 3 split stops in play





2 PM - THE 20 SHARE ADD STOPPED OUT FOR A LOSS-
sTILL HOLDING THE 50 SHARE INITIAL ENTRY- WITH STOPS RAISED ON THE REMAINING SHARES-



hOPING FOR A PM SURGE AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE cLOSE-

tHE REMAINING SPLIT STOPS HAVE BEEN COMBINED JUST BELOW THIS AFTERNOON'S RANGE LOWS.
iF i HAD ENTERED THE PM add AT A PROPER LEVEL, INSTEAD OF LATE TO ENTER, i POTENTIALLY WOULD HAVE ALLOWED THAT ADD SOME ADDITIONAL STOP ROOM.




Making some investment Buys today- and will likely do so again tomorrow- 3 security names to consider into 2023- CRWD, FTNT,PANW

Using a Perf chart to compare over the past 100 days:CRWD is clearly the furthest below it's 200 day- Viewing the fundamentals on Finviz-
CRWD then PANW, FTNT- with FTNT having a positive ROI +35.9% p/s - + 9.20 ; Panw ROI- +6.40 ps- 7.23; CRWD- roi--12.20 ps- -11.74
CRWD is clearly underperforming viewing the fundamentals




UDOW stops out

[sd]

12-30-2022 Final Trading Day of 2022! BOO-YAH !!!! Let's see if we can turn a profit on a trade on this last day......

Futures are in the Red today- Go figure- so I'll start off with viewing some inverse funds to start with .....But it's still an hour before the market opens.

Similarly, will the ARKK, TSLA,AAPL, TECH funds see additional selling after yesterday's gains- Potentially, it seems that large cap and spec tech is still vulnerable.

I would have thought that there would be some buying -long - as some funds reorder their allocations.

While I have been essentially trading -for years-mostly in solitary, it's good to get some different perspectives- Helps to challenge one's ' status quo' approach to the markets because it's what I am familiar and comfortable with-- A good example of this is learning to take shorter term trades- instead of holding a mindset that a trade one makes is a good investment- Only if it proves itself by having the markets agree and support the continued trend higher.

One of the benefits of belonging to a trading website is exposure to different means and methods- Different strokes for different folks- but occasionally you find some gems worth integrating -into your own methods- In this example- some of these traders use Fib, and such that I don't care to explore, but the application of positioning based on indicator divergences has a lot of potential merit-
In the following posts copied- some discussion on divergences and a chart example posted by Geo-
So- You - the visitor here- can get a Free Trial to Leavitt Brothers- and www.leavittbrothers.com/- I may also take his masterclass- a modest expense, but likely will pay for itself in a short period of time----








One trader on Leavitt -MMOY has been trading a unique approach- taking multiple small trades looking to make just $0.02 -that's right -2 cents on each trade-
While this seems miniscule- he has had net cumulative gains daily of .5% - 1% - do that over 200 days and you've got a 100% return!


I'll start off today viewing SARK,

It's midday, and markets are SLOW-
Took a trade in DOG- Stopped out for a net $0.0 wash on the trade-

IOT trade- taken at yesterday's Close- on a big spike up move-
I didn't have an open stop-loss and it indeed gapped lower on today's open- It then reversed, and went higher-
Trailing a split stop with 50 shares in play--- Using small size



1/2 of IOT stopped out-
I was slow to adjust the slow psar and still holding as price rebounds here


Final stop is hit -So, Psar stops fill @ $12.17, 12.25 net cost $12.22 - Loss of -$0.01
Price had a high of $12.39


Found I still hold a small DOG position. Technically should have stopped out- Operator error- too involved in the other trades and neglected to put a stop in for the few shares as the 1st 1/2 stopped out
This stop $33.51



When the last trading day is lousy:



This is a follow up on the UDOW trade that stopped out yesterday- good to have listened to the chart and not be optimistic


Today's CLOSE was to the Downside- with a Whimper by the market's hopefuls.
Here's the Sector Performance Chart that covers the entire 2022 year-
Ask yourself- where could you have made money
A: I could have made money if I had not tried investing in:
B: I could have made money if I had invested in :
Hindsight is 20-20...




Have a Safe New Years ! and if you are all Bots, I've got a can of WD-40 available!
Will do some final thoughts this long weekend, and- start a new 2023 thread in this strategies forum.

[sd]

End of Year - reflections-
GOOD-Belated Timing-
This was a year when I got fed up with a 6 year professional manager that "managed" a portion of my retirement IRA-
Fortunately, he did advise me to put a portion into a fixed- low return annuity- and that actually outperformed the professional institutional Equis portfolio -
I somehow felt it was my responsibility to stay with that firm -because they are the pros- right? Guess what- the portfolio they put us in had a mix of bond and also growth funds- since late 2016 - that would rise along with the S&P, but would also completely decline back to the net 0.0 gains when the S&P declined.
I had protested to the local manager last year at a meeting about some of the funds the Eqis firm had invested into- and- the lack of Energy exposure-etc. One of the funds-I particularly didn't like was an ESG social warrior run fund- Nia global solutions- Not only did they sell portions of a winning fund (Martin) to buy shares, as this fund had already seen the peak in the ESG hyper feel good movement- they added and increased exposure to it- finally taking a -20% loss when they eventually got out of it.
One of the merits of being familiar with basic charting, is that I was able to point out in an email to the local manager that our account seemed to go up and down- back to 0.0 gains with each market decline- but that the S&P indeed had declines- but each decline was back to a new higher high- And- the S&P had doubled in value over that period of time , and - Aug 2022 was down just -15% from a +100% gain over those 6 years-
After deducting his monthly management fee- My account was clearly heading back to 0.0 gains for those 6 years of investing in the Eqis portfolio-
They never responded - and I told them to put my account into all cash- and then requested it to be transferred over to my TD IRA-

I also transferred my Vanguard IRA over to TD -as TD allows me to invest in inverse funds-

Finally, I had given Edelman a larger portion of my IRA last fall- right at the peak of the 2021 market hitting highs- In fairness to Edelman- My entry at the market peak gave the account no cushion for the losses that followed- Between the 2 managed portfolios I had net losses of -20% against the IRA aND ALSO A -20% LOSS IN THE rOTH - I had Edelman shift 2/3 of the IRA into cash in August- and exit the Roth-
I then transferred both into the new TD accounts-
Finally, midway this December, I had Edelman liquidate the remaining IRA as it had continued to see losses- - and just transferred those funds into the TD -
I liked the Diversified ETF portfolio - they used a lot of Schwab ETFs- but they also had a 1.75% management fee-
When we moved our account to TD Ameritrade- they expressed that that was indeed a very high fee relative to some of the fees charged by Schwab for managed accounts.

Afterseeing the managed accounts lose $50k this year- That's 55 years of RMD's vanished.... , while I was relatively profitable on the year- although I lost track here at the end with rolling out of accounts into the new TD accounts... That motivated me to retake the funds- I can do better- even if I just eliminate the fees and invest in a robo account- which I may do for a portion of the IRA in 2023-
I'm presently waiting for the final Roth account held in Interactive Brokers- to get rolled over to the TD ROTH-

The combined TD IRA closes out 2022 @ $197,764.03
The TD Roth including the rollover from IB today is presently $78,505.71

Keep in mind- this is All that I have accumulated after working for 50 years- investing only for the last 25- and -had i been smart enough to at least start investing even small amounts decades earlier- That number would be significantly higher due to compounding. The benefit of starting early- and staying the course and gradually increasing- provides substantial outperformance over the long term compared to those that wait and start investing "later" when it seems convenient-

So, I would encourage anyone that takes the time to browse this thread- Put more $$$ sooner into your IRA, ROTH investments- max out your Roth after you get the employers match--- max out your HSA if available- until you've got 10k or so in there- and then invest with it. For decades- and Tax free.

[sd]

For some of the essentials in day trading- that can also extend to swing trading- this Video by Ross- Warrior trading - is worth an hour of your time -

www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZS8x6xK8-Vk

Lots of good information on entering on

flags ,breakouts etc- @ 41 min discusses the psychology of both the bull and the bear traders at certain price levels-
While the example here is around a day trade level- the similar trader setups occur on trader positioning on a daily chart...
Also covers a lot of adds to the position-
He illustrates trading some different trades, with a dialogue instructing what he looks for - both to sell, and when to add back into the position-
This is scalp trading- multiple buys and sells in the same trade based on the price action- Consider that this similar price action is seen in the Daily charts over a period of weeks....

His background-and advice to those just starting $583.00 to a $1,000,000.00 account-
This video he discusses his mistakes, and what he wished he had done differently. Trade in a simulator- before Risking actual $$$ Mostly losses for 18 months... Psychology and expectation when he started...managing the stress of Day trading... important to have a consistent strategy and approach. Importance of one's psychology and expectations- and not trading your P&L.
Don't worry about the account balance- Make that one next trade a well executed trade- profits will result -eventually - Premarket focus- set rules- meditation- don't give in to FOMO...or revenge trade- Trading is a marathon- Don't just think this one day is all that matters- pace yourself- build a foundation, and just focus on a single strategy, and then refine it -in small steps and develop
a better sense of finding the better trade setups.

www.youtube.com/watch?v=j1tvgmKG9Vw&t=370s
Some of his basic videos for those that are new- or looking to find some alternative approaches.
DAy 1 -https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=txWaMpSzHhM&list=PL1xI23WKVWicMYEhxhgWxJ9wfGUR9iP9x

SMB videos are also very instructive...on the discipline as well as the technical expertise----


Opposite- low momentum scalper- Brian Watts- GOAT chart developer- Coarse -different approach monologue- Language.... Claims he prefers to not trade in trending markets- Wants to take multiple trades in ranges so he can "f...Exploit you" - Found this odd compared to almost everyone else's typical approach looking for momentum.
Several traders apply his GOAT chart -

Some of the other charting styles I'm seeing used tend to be complicated, numerous indicators, oscillators, FIB etc.
The KISS approach to TA seems to be my preferred - EMA's, Use a few indicators, but keep it as simple as possible....



Will start a new thread for 2023 in the Strategies forum.