SD - 2022 - A YEAR TO LOSE LESS AND TO KEEP MORE !

[sd]

A NEW YEAR and a FRESH OPPORTUNITY to KEEP LOSSES SMALLER and to KEEP MORE OF THE GAINS!

That's a good way to start this 2022 thread!

This continues my endeavor to become better at trading- and, in recent years, investing.

2021 proved to be a year that I gave back a lot of the easy money made early in the year, a year of the S&P making 70 record new highs !

A year of market rotations and the market giving a more critical eye to what it is willing to pay up for in valuations- I expect that theme will continue in 2022 for many of the market offerings.

2021 - the year of Crypto and NFTs gaining traction

2021 The Redditt crowd and MEME stocks- actually taking on the institutions shorting beaten down stocks- and Winning- That may continue this year!
However, I expect that YOLO left a lot of would be participants that drank the Kool-Aid learning a valuable lesson when the music stopped.

2021 -a year of SPACS- being introduced , with a lot of Hype and the vast majority of the Spacs failing to make gains -

The FED is the biggest influencer of market perception- and rising inflation and the Monetary policy will be the cue for the markets in 2022


This 2022 thread is a continuation of annual threads I started years ago as a member of DG's Market Timers- A small group of traders that participated in "The Horse Race" . I owe my persistence- to DG and Banked out -and IRA- final member ; whose insights and shared wisdoms kept me from blowing out my account years ago- My goal this year is to also include what I think may be useful- or explore alternative approaches within the limits of my
limited experience. If anyone cares to comment- you can join the discussion here- or email me @ [e-mail]

[sd]

POSITION SIZING - AN ESSENTIAL ELEMENT IN ONE'S TRADING :https://www.investopedia.com/terms/p/positionsizing.asp

This is likely the most important
mechanical aspect of trading- Your Psychology and Bias's are the other elements.
Use position sizing to determine how much you can Risk on any one trade- For example- the Risk to your total account should not exceed -2% -prefer -1%
In this example- in my IB account, the present value is $18,082. 2% Risk is $361.00 1% Risk is better in approaching a new strategy 1% =180.00
How do I determine what my Position Size will be on a trade?
my overview- go to Youtube to find videos that can give you better illustrations.
vimeo.com/661630346/3e76d98a39

Using Nvidia as an example - The NVDA Stock is having a shallow pullback within an overall larger uptrend. It Closed @ $294.00 . I view placing a stop-loss below the recent bottom @ $270.00
If I was to allow my account to only take a 10% position size- ( $1,800) that allows me to purchase just 6 shares @ a cost of $294.00 .
My stop-loss logically looks to be set @ $270.00.
My RISK based on a stop-loss is $294-$24.00/share = 24 x 6= $144.00 which is below the 1% Risk 0.008 !
But let's consider i take 9 other trades as well, the account is fully invested in 10 different positions
The portfolio Risk is 10 positions -each Risking 1% of the account value- so , the account has a potential for a 10% + loss- should the markets take a sharp turn lower and all trades drop below the stop-loss-
The reality, is that typically stocks trade in tandem if they are all in the same group-
and the stop-loss is an activation price- that usually fills lower- and sometimes considerably lower on a gap down open.
Chart: AN eXAMPLE ONLY-


Consider that Risk comes with the potential to gain Reward...But taking unnecessary Risk is not the key to getting Rewarded. Can making an entry based on less Risk yield a greater reward? In this example, viewing a potential entry in NVDA not at $294 with a Risk of $24.00 - but that using a buy-stop order to enter the trade - above the trend line , but also higher -above the recent range highs
essentially tightens the trade - an entry stop $305.25 with a limit $306.00 but also a stop-loss below the existing range lows- $292.66 (psar value) reduces the Risk to $12.59 or 0.007%.
Potentially allows a way to consider taking a larger position size entry

[sd]

PLACEHOLDER

RESOURCES-
Stockcharts.com - offers limited Free charting- Serious about trading?
Free Trial :https://stockcharts.com/checkout/freetrial/
A Basic $15 or Extra $25 is an inexpensive and necessary tool
stockcharts.com/
CHART SCHOOL-INTERESTED IN CHARTING? QUESTIONS? school.stockcharts.com/doku.php
STOCKCHARTS TV stockcharts.com/tv/
Introduction by Chip Anderson:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q3S6h93agMc&t=1797s

Stockcharts School- indicators/oscillators links :https://school.stockcharts.com/doku.php?id=technical_indicators

Parabolic Psar - as a guide for entry, exits, stops. school.stockcharts.com/doku.php
id=technical_indicators:parabolic_sar
nOTE- Viewing the chart with PSAR on a 4 hr time frame makes the psar signals to be significantly closer to the Price Action- Earlier signals, more whipsaws.
ideally, a stop on a trade does not exceed the position sizing Risk- Depending on the price volatility- PSAR - as a stop-is generally very wide .The standard psar setting is :parabolic psar 0.02,0.2; but you can adjust it to be faster- and closer to the price by changing the middle .02 to a higher number - .04, .06 etc. Experiment with these to find if applying this a a trailing stop would improve your results- Use PSAR when pric e is trending- not in a sideways range. Use with another trend indicator- ADX....

MACD HISTOGRAM- AN INDICATOR OF AN INDICATOR-https://school.stockcharts.com/doku.php?id=technical_indicators:macd-histogram


FINVIZ.COM- PROVIDES A LOT OF NEWS, FUNDAMENTAL, AND CHARTS INFORMATION -
Put in a Ticker- it brings up information on that specific stock.
finviz.com/
Sector performance graphs- Click on the Group heading finviz.com/groups.ashx

Stockcharts.com My video of how to make daily, Weekly, 2 hr charts of Pelosi's stock purchases
vimeo.com/661740050/71a9c49403

Video to identify sector strength and sector rotation, finding those stocks in Industry groups that are leading the markets-
vimeo.com/661794333/25e204bd30

MODIFYING SCAN SYNTAX

mODIFYING A PREMADE SCAN TO INCLUDE bOTH THE eLDER iMPULSE gREEN bAR AS WELL as a brand new -PSAR BUY signal-
i.imgur.com/KpsPozi.png

THE SCAN SYNTAX CAN BE MODIFIED- THIS SCAN USES sTART 0 TRADING DAYS- STOCKS-LISTED IN THE NYSE
it only returned 7 stocks @ the 0 days setting; returns 26 @ 1 day, 70 @ 2 days ; 14 @ 3 days
Scan Criteria
For the last intraday update:
[TYPE = STOCK] AND [EXCHANGE = NYSE] AND [DAILY SMA(20,DAILY VOLUME) > 40000] AND [DAILY ELDER BAR GREEN = 1] AND [YESTERDAY'S DAILY ELDER BAR GREEN = 0] AND [YESTERDAY'S DAILY PARABOLIC SAR(0.02,0.2) > YESTERDAY'S DAILY CLOSE] AND [DAILY PARABOLIC SAR(0.02,0.2) < DAILY CLOSE]

By changing the exchange to NASDAQ, you'll get the nasdaq stocks- on the 0 days setting, you get brand new PSAR combined with a positive Elder bar as the 2 signals need to both be present- by modifying the days to a 1,2,3 you will find more potential results- but price may be
extended- But it provides fewer signals, and perhaps by viewing the industry or sector group the market is favoring that week, will be a way to get in early in a sector that uis trending.


FINVIZ.COM POWERFUL SCREENER! SORT BY SECTOR, INDUSTRY GROUP ETC! PERFORMANCE OR A NUMBER OF OTHER METRICS.
lOOKING FOR aSSET MANAGER OUTPERFORMING?
finviz.com/screener.ashx?v=141&f=an_recom_buybetter,geo_usa,ind_assetmanagement,sec_financial&o=pe&r=21

FIND ON YOUTUBE:https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=FINVIZ+SCREENER


Jason Leavitt- Video on how he uses the macd histogram to identify a divergence in price action -declining histogram vs rising prices- and uses the 1 hour time frame to view, expect a price move lower to occur, a macd line cross, astochastic downturn, followed by an attempt to move higher-ending with a break lower- The break lower is the entry signal. Instructive video in applying the faster time frame, MACD, Stochastic.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=E0xxeWiEzy4

[sd]

PLACEHOLDER
LEARNING OPTIONS- Something i elected to try to do in 2022-Totally in the dark , signed up to take some training with Prosper & Scott Bauer but I woulda-coulda-shoulda looked at some of what is available for free instruction on the internet- and there's a lot-out there- I have never pursued learning Options -put off by the terminology and complexity- but I'm giving it a shot to learn this year.

Tom Sosnoff- Designed and sold Sink or Swim to Ameritrade years ago and started Tastytrade.com and Tasty works -brokerage. Sosnoff is amazing-
the Link to the Beginning Options is : tastytrade.thinkific.com/courses/beginner-options-course
You can view Tastytrade daily- www.tastytrade.com/

In searching for Options training videos, I came across this 1st resource of successive videos by Options Alpha- and the instruction of the initial series I viewed is clear and well illustrated with examples- There may be other resources out there I'm sure- but I've limited time - I get a dozen + emails from firms wanting to teach/sell/get me to subscribe to their Options plays- Giving Prosper Trading a 6 mos trial- but i should have pursued some of the free training options available .
Their online active trading /mentoring with Scott Bauer will be instructive once I get over the initial learning curve and actually try to apply Options strategies-
I also plan to trade on a SIM for several months ...
Think or Swim also offers training-
www.prospertrading.com/

OPTIONS ALPHA- This series of videos are well explained- Class 1- What are Options...
www.youtube.com/watch?v=GzkKFRx1Dhk&list=PL2bLh5ebfay_22mPZKDwqFBf8hEVeua6Y

[sd]

PLACEHOLDER

[sd]

At the Close of 2021: The Account Balances I will be starting with in 2022

Van IRA $22,039 Van Roth $21,600 IB ROTH $18,082

Caveat Emptor- BUYER BEWARE!!!
I have a long way to go in my trading and investing journey. Very much consider myself to be a slow learner.
I often express my opinions and process ideas, but use your own judgement to determine if anything I write in these threads is beneficial for you, or your trading. I would recommend that one start with a diversified IRA investment account, and keep adding to it weekly, and only start trading with a separate and small account- Don't Risk one's future retirement by trading one's IRA Develop a separate small trading account- and see how it goes over time-

MY thread here will include trades made in those 3 small retirement accounts- one IRA, and 2 separate Roth accounts-
The IB Roth is where I'll be trying to make shorter term swing trades- I lost money in it this year due to some sloppy trading and getting slack on stops. That offset the net gains I made in the Van account- but I gave up a lot of those gains as market rotations whipsawed me after the run up in Feb. I should have been an Investor vs trader in the Van accounts, because we seldom ever got pullbacks exceeding -5% in the S&P.
I took the majority of the Van accounts I had held for 4 years and invested them with Edelman Financial Engines- that has active ETF portfolios
with active rebalancing- across the assets. I saw that my performance was not keeping up with the markets, and so I didn't want my emotions or inability to adjust to market conditions - to lose all of the earlier profits- The responsibility of managing 250k as an active trader was not in my best interests- I couldn't sit through market shallow pullbacks without reacting- only to get whipsawed and end up chasing at higher prices---
So, i now manage a smaller amount of funds that potentially I will achieve some net greater success with in 2022.

Get smart- and convert your trading account to a ROTH- and consider rolling over portions of your IRA into a Roth- and Never have to pay Capital Gains taxes ever again- And for those fortunate enough to be in a high income bracket- paying the taxes now at todays lower levels to get into a Roth would be a prudent move as the taxes in the future are going to only get higher. The Democrats are trying to pass legislation that will prevent the IRA to Roth conversion! Check with your tax advisor!

The Placeholders are for inserting future links, websites, reference places that I may think have some value to others.
I'm married, I retired from my construction job Dec 2020 at age 70 because of the spread of Covid on the job site- We have 2 daughters, 4 grand daughters- I don't bother with FaceBook, or Linked in, and presently not a member of any trading group -
So, this is my primary outlet for self expression. Sometimes I think some of what I write is targeted to help a novice trader...

I'm a chart guy- I enjoy making charts, and try to apply and interpret some Technical Analysis as a way to potentially make better trades and investments- I looked for the Holy Grail, but never found it, but turned over a lot of Rocks along the way.
Understanding the basics of TA - moving averages- got me to sell declining positions early- and so I had only a small % drawdown in March 2020 as Covid rocked the markets for 6 weeks of Selling. And I was almost all cash in the retirement accounts in Nov 2007 and didn't see my account decline by 45% as those that simply sat on their hands and held on for dear life did-

I also traded- and lost big in 2,000 as the Tech mania bubble popped- I gave back a lot of the easy money I had gained temporarily, as well as a big chunk of what I had started with- using monies that were initially invested through Edward Jones in diversified and high cost mutual funds-

Those periods of big market losses - made me Risk Adverse- and TA seemed to provide the answer- During the later years of the prior decade, I found DG @ Clear station, and he impressed me with his analytical- and it turns out- very principled and pragmatic approach to the markets-particularly when there was so much Hype on those message boards- Clear station went private through E-trade and DG founded Market Timers- and eventually moved it here to ProBoards-

I struggled for years as a discretionary trader- I enjoyed the challenge that trading presented, and then I adopted the Position Sizing approach
that DG and Bankedout used- and that approach slowed down and greatly reduced the losses, offset with the winners. The mechanics of not Risking too much on any one trade and adjusting that trade's position size based on the Risk of getting stopped out was the 1st real step I made in the process of trying to get more disciplined in my market approach- I will put a link to how Position Sizing works in one of the prior Placeholder threads .
There is an undeniable learning curve that a bull market can lull a trader into thinking he's a trading genius- only to find that the market can turn on a dime- and those easy profits - Betting too large on any single trade can be a great way to grow an account- but that same approach- over time- will eventually find itself in the wrong trade, the trade that drops, and continues to drop-
Position Sizing allows one to control the Risk to their account- and to survive the learning curve-
Newer traders are inclined to over Risk their trades in order to make gains in the account-
Of course, if you bought into Bitcoin @ 10k, you're winning large!

www.investopedia.com/terms/p/positionsizing.asp

I recently learned to take video screenshots and will include some video commentary periodically-
I've added a couple of NVDA charts under the Position Sizing commentary in a prior entry. Also discussed using a Buy-Stop entry and a narrower time frame to view the prospective trade. Unscripted commentary

[sd]

Covid has been with us for almost 2 years now, and it still has many of us struggling with the repercussions. Physical, tangible, emotional; psychological. It had an impact then and still does now. We have changed our way of interacting in person, and many have turned to on line sources- for support, information, and interaction. and financial gain-
It is an amazing social transformation that we, as people, employees, owners, are all experiencing. The psychological impact may be hard to recognize, because it can be a subtle shift in how we perceive the world around us- or a significant alteration of our mood and belief in the better days that we think we will find as we return to "normal" . No one believed this would ever last this long, and the stress for those in financial duress - or struggling to return to work but with a family to raise- Profound levels of stress affect how we perceive the world we live in, and also affect How we make trades- or Investments- Particularly if we don't have a solid and proven methodology.
Trading became a big new past time for many who were cut off and isolated- The potential to engage and succeed in the financial arena engaged thousands of new retail participants- with the potential opportunity to find success in the stock market- or Meme Stocks- or Options markets- As markets transitioned this past year, from strong tech trending, then with rapid sector rotations, it caught many by the short hairs- including myself- As i look back on the prior year, I have to acknowledge I have been influenced by the emotional/reactive side of myself- and not for the better for my account. I gave back a large % of the easy money made earlier in the year- I failed to adapt to shifts in the market- I also reacted too quickly to exit a position on a minor decline - and never took advantage of the "Buy the Dip" at the periodic pullback to the 50 ema .
The act of Trading is easy- You find an online brokerage, send them some money, open your account and then press the Buy button for stock XYZ. It didn't take any preparation, stock was perhaps on the Reditt MEME list, Stock Twits, or other message boards, or CNBC. The things that influence us in making trading selections are likely from the same sources.

Understanding repetitive patterns is the essence of viewing charts. While one can view charts for free on a phone screen, it is a very small and limited format- I prefer an account where i can store and annotate charts, and I use Stockcharts.com with a relatively inexpensive monthly subscription that provides me the ability to view the prospective chart on any time frame; to mark up the chart for the potential trade, the stop, and then to ultimately record the outcome of the trade.
If you are passing through this site- and do not yet have a chart site- that allows you to record your record and analyze your trades- I recommend Stockcharts.com basic subscription- approx $15/month, but it opens a door for further analysis of the trades you consider- I get that many new traders are comfortable using their phone to act on trades- but that is a severe limitation Imo.

[sd]

Sector rotation is a market fact of life- To get a comprehensive view of what the active and prevailing sectors are in favor- or losing momentum- Finviz.com click on the Groups- While the daily leadership may often vary, Persistence in leadership over weeks can turn into many months that a few sectors are being favored and accumulated by the markets- Conversely, different sectors can fall out of favor and that indicates a lack of buyers- or potentially sellers shifting into those more favored sectors-
The shifting in the sectors offers an early indication that the Tide may be turning against one's positions. That Tide will affect the majority of a sector's stocks-
Finviz.com is a Free site that offers a lot of information - finviz.com/ By Clicking on the Groups-it will bring up the sector graphs. Take note of what takes leadership on the Weekly and Monthly graphs. Are you positioned in those sectors that are gaining momentum? And- are you positioned in those sectors losing momentum? finviz.com/groups.ashx

Finviz has a very robust screener that allows scans for technicals as well as fundamental criteria-
finviz.com/screener.ashx




I'm periodically adding some links in the earlier made Placeholder messages- Similarly had done so in the 2021 thread.

New to trading? Charting? - in the 2021 thread I tried to include some information and resources in the 1st pages that I thought would be useful dgoriginal.proboards.com/thread/757/2021-active-management-greater-success?page=1

Stockcharts.com Free Trial stockcharts.com/checkout/freetrial/
Today I will add a video on making a chartlist for a friend-who just started a stockcharts subscription He wants to see how Nancy Pelosi's husband does in his recent stock buys. i'll cover the basics of making separate chart lists for Daily, Weekly, 2 HR
vimeo.com/661740050/71a9c49403
Combining the different time frame charts into a single list :
vimeo.com/661750291/fcd2bbc7c5

To find better prospects for trades, I want to be aware of where the market is heading- Looking at the sector performance for that day, as well as the prior week, and Month , may give me an indication that the stocks I'm holding are not what the market is favoring- I want to find which market sectors are taking the leadership for the day, the week, the month-
In stockcharts, - Under the Summary Pages on the left, click on the Sector Summary, change the setting from intraday to Week- find out what sectors are leading. Next, click on Industry Summary , and scroll down- Find the leading Sector Groups- and then notice the various industry groups are made up of sub groups- some will be outperforming the others. highlight the various sub groups- click on the Market carpet icon below the bottom of the chart. look at the top 5 performers- to see if they look viable- Check their SCTR rating as well-
Look at the SCTR Reports category- These list some of the best performers based on stockcharts ranking system- look for 90 + SCTR ratings.

In the Reports and More category:
Predefined Scans- Various preprogrammed scans you can see the results of - Scans initially come back listed in Alphabetical order- Dbl click the SCTR heading bar to sort out in descending order- Click again to change the sorting. Preferably Look for stocks or ETFs with a 90+ rating- Also notice what sector and industry groups show the majority of the returns- By identifying what sectors are in favor, and screening for leading stocks in that sector, you can potentially find that leadership leads to out performance.
vimeo.com/661794333/25e204bd30

[sd]

THE 30 MIN RENKO CHART
A different way to view price action by eliminating some of the "Noise"


The difference in this next chart is the setting was changed from the Hi-LO- to the CLOSE


This shallow pullback Friday comes off a failure to exceed the prior high-so it's a dbl (triple) top-
It would be reasonable to expect that Fridays action was a small -profit lock-in- How AAPL behaves tomorrow -
Will set the tone. A buy above $182- on a breakout- or - keep the powder dry and look for that lower $170 level?
Relatively narrow range for a swing trade-

[sd]

JAN 2 , 2022. Futures all in the Green! Nas up large premarket. Looks like a solid start to 2022! A lot of Funds and retail should be participating and changing allocations this week!
Risk on/Growth trades should benefit today- The "Safe" trades- likely not.
QQQ's up premarket. Large cap Tech-

TSLA UP +7% $1137 PREMARKET - Not a position yet, but I will likely Buy just 1 share on today's uptrend move in the IB account . I had wrongly anticipated that this would go lower as it filled the prior gap back to $900. Phil Lebeau- CNBC auto analyst thinks TSLA will continue to outperform in the EV space. Presently hold positions in F in the Van and RIVN trade in the IB. I set a limit to Buy just 1 share with the free cash in the IB
Trying out some different chart indicators.
a 2 hr chart with Bollinger Bands, PSAR,, ADX, MACD Histogram, Stochastic-
Today's premarket 7% gap upmove exceeds the recent $1120 high - bLOWOUT EXPECTATIONS FOR DELIVERIES ....Catalyst



IB trading Positions starting the year if TSLA fills will be a mix:
TSLA, VSTO, SITM, RIVN,REMX,MU,AVGO,AMX,AEO,

Van IRA
2.3k Cash to use today Diversified-but overweight in small cap exposure
ICF 9%(REIT); IWF 12.4% (small cap Growth); IWM 15% (small cap); JOET 11.7% (qual/momo ETF);
PDBC 10.2% (COMMODITIES); RYT 10.% (EW tECH); XLV 22% (HEALTHCARE)- TROW -8.8% An individual stock position that will be shifted into an XLRE position on any Price weakness (stopping out)
This will position that Portfolio into all ETFs. Seeking to be positioned for a swing into a small cap recovery, continued commodity appreciation; and overweighting on the safer healthcare ETF- and realestate.
Allocations will be shifted as they underperform or hit trailing stops- Will try to allow a bit more swing room.


Van Roth-
10k funds available to Buy - Holds a mix of ETFs and stocks- Both AAPL and MSFT hit stops Friday- small gains.
This will be a more market momentum focused account- More Aggressive stops-
DRIV 7% (ev etf); DBE 6% (eNERGY EXPOSURE); RSP 8% (S&P EW);
BX STOCK 9% (FINANCIAL); EW STOCK 6% (MED SUPPLY); F STOCK 7% (ev/AUTO); TROW 9% (fINANCIAL MANAGER -SHOULD BE CHANGED TO SCHW)

FUTURES -Nas futures lessening- but still green-

Considering to repurchase SCHW- and possibly add to BX on moves higher...



SCHW order- Buy-stop/lmt $85.00/$85.50



Filled on TSLA


RIVN POSITION TAKEN LAST WEEK - volatile swings, initially higher- drops lower, potential 10 am turn higher-
stop set @ the 10 am swing -expect this to get taken out for a loss from $104.entry. This trade was taken along with a group of potential bottom reversals trades experimenting with last week.



As we pass the 10 am hour, snap shot of the sector performance- My XLV position sold on my tight stop-loss- in the Van IRA-
Energy leading today-OIH industry group! market is defensive-


My SCHW order filled with unsecured funds- Not allowing me to get filled on AAPL that stopped out last week. After the purchase of TSLA today, the remaining cash bought a small position in SARK- the fund that shorts ARKK.
David w/Jeffries repeats the consensus view that they are trimming some positions- looking to be positioned defensively as they foresee a larger swing lower eventually in the markets this year.



reentered AAPL as it hit the Renko PSAR- Also SCHW on the upmove- BX failing to gain .
A large number of my IRA stops filled this am- Locked in small gains, or small losses, but I need to adjust for better reentries potentially.
I'm adding to the energy position today - DBE based on the sector strength shown. I'm using unsettled funds that I will have to not set a stop on until the funds clear.


Adding to the F position on today's Range breakout!


AAPL reentry- just below the recent swing lows will become the new stop once the cash clears
AAPL is recently trading at an extraordinary high multiple @ 31x PE. Well above it's historical valuation 18x.
This is based on the market's thinking that AAPL can produce some new and innovative products.




MSFT stopped out last week, Not seeing any buying today! Will follow this for a potential to Reenter.
wILL APPLY a reentry on a move above the declining psar -Presently, this trend looks to be headed lower - $320?




DVN breaking out and a leader in the Energy/Oil - Added today w/unsecured funds- prior position in 2021


Devon has been a major outperformer in 2021 in the Energy group.
using a 1 year performance chart to compare between the XLE, & OIH




over the recent 10 days:



EOD: dAY 1 OF THIS nEW 2022 YEAR finds me up only slightly as 8 Van positions and several IB positions stop-out-vAN ira Added RYT- SAW STOPS HIT IN joet,xlv,iwf,trow,icf,

vAN rOTH- Stops hit RSP,TROW,BX Buys :DVN,AAPL,DBE,SCHW
IB ADD TSLA, sold SITM,RIVN,AMX

[sd]

On using the PERFORMANCE CHART to compare stocks or ETFs on a % basis-

At the very bottom of the chart page, the bottom line lists Symbol Summary, ACP, Point and Figure, PERF CHART
which is the Link to the Performance chart

It provides a quick way to compare price Performance between up to 10 different ticker symbols to compare Stocks, ETFs etc. and can provide the results in a line graph or in a histogram . The time frame can range from 1 day to years by entering the duration desired at the bottom of the screen in the slider bar. The Slider bar can also be set to view prices over a shorter time frame- and then slid with the cursor to demonstrate the changes over different periods in time.

As I am considering investing in some individual semi stocks- I will take a list of some of the names I have often heard as segment leaders, and combine those into a perf chart, and review them on both a longer time frame and a more recent time frame -
The perf chart compares on % that each stock moves- so price differences are not a factor when comparing the performance-
I will compare NVDA, AMD, MRVL, MU, QRVO, ON, QCOM, INTC AND THE SEMI etfS SMH, SOXX.
tHE 1ST 2 CHARTS- A LINE CHART AND A HISTOGRAM ARE SET FOR A 1 YEAR (280 DAYS)



100 DAYS



50 DAYS



20 DAYS



10 DAYS



5 DAYS



2 DAYS

[sd]

Futures up-
Ford up premarket-!
Let's see if what was in favor yesterday also is in favor today.

Van Roth & IRA : Adding financials KBE ,added to SCHW,, New OIH, Added to DRIV; SMH, KBE
IB added Jets, added DIA, ITA, - areas showing upside momo today.

@ 10 am - sectors leading:


The industry groups leading @ 10 am sorted by today's intraday strength:

Selling MRVL for a loss- as price reversed onb my entry today-
REMX hit my limit sell order and executed @ $116.00
TSLA not gaining today. Nor AAPL, msft DROPPING EVEN LOWER
Tech sector swelling off today-
TSLA FILLED THE GAP BACK TO $1123 AND MOVED BACK HIGHER- On yesterday's $1141 entry- it was a "breakout gap up move- As far as I'm concerned- the gap has been explored today, and I will set a stop @ 1119.90 Risking $21.00 on the trade -1.8%. I don't want to see Price retest that $1060 low , Risking 7% to be proven right.


TARGET -TGT- RETAIL TRADE GAINING TODAY - STOP rISK -3.4%

eNERGY TRADES CONTINUE TO GAIN TODAY




This appears to be a significant momo shift-at least today, towards a more positive view of the recovery- The positions that stopped out yesterday- including healthcare -were mostly defensive ...
I had a fairly large allocation to XLV that stopped out yesterday that is again declining today- Healthcare is typically considered a defensive sector- I had tried to shift some of my allocations as we entered the 2022 year based on my BIAS belief is that we will have a return to some normalcy, but the slower growth, and Fed overhang on rates will see this market more defensive. Some of I disagreeumptions are based on listening to the more cautious CNBC interviews with managers- The S&P cap weighted was aided by the growth and strength of AAPL, MSFT - but the remaining Tech sector came under concerns of over valuation- high PE for no earnings- bringing down large areas of tech - security, software, Cloud. CRM is an example of a category leader in earlier 2021, that has come under the same tech weakness on high valuation and tech weakness.
I didn't expect the Healthcare position to be sold off as we started in 2022, but I have to allow the chart to dictate over my Bias/Belief. Vanguard allows me to use the unsettled funds from the Sell transactions to make new purchases, but I have to hold the new purchase for the 2- 3 (?) day period for the funds to have been "cleared" and managed with stop-losses- If I was to make a sell before that trade was cleared there is a penalty that would restrict my account.

XLV -Broke below fast ema, below daily PSAR - minor gain - not becoming a loser.



Tech is being hammered because rates are rising, and high valuations- a theme to expected by many to continue in 2022- The Value theme is seen as having some upside and relative safety- T, VIAC, small cap value-succeeding today.

BottomING ROTATIONS - MARKET FINDING "VALUE" WORTH BUYING TODAY-
tHE SMALL CAP 600 "VALUE"


VS THE IWF - the Growth sector that stopped out




AMD announced a large expanse of opportunities moving forward in 2022 but the stock dropped -5% today regardless of her optimism! I just took a new position in SMH today- and cannot sell- uncleared funds. SMH sector weakness- down slightly on the day-

Ford is Closing up over + 11% today- I added to the existing position earlier in the day on the positive Momentum.

When we started the Day- this was the 10 am sector snapshot:
Notice how we finished the Day in the 2nd snaopshot: Energy and Not real Estate



Watching and following the sector rotations can be like following a blind man crossing a street-
What happens on any one day may be simple market volatility swings- , but it gets more real when it persists over a week, even more so- over a month.

The Shift yesterday- as we started the 2022 year- saw both Healthcare and MSFT selling off yesterday- and that continued today. I was surprised by the selling in the Healthcare, and not as much in MSFT-because it seemed Tech was being dumped everywhere- except AAPL- which I reentered with a smaller position as it rallied.

4.3 Million s of Americans quit their jobs in November, following over 4 Mil quitting in October. Healthcare, leisure, hospitality. last month- a Testament to the social unrest underlying this country's economic framework-
This new Covid variant is affecting the mindset of people trying to return to "Normal"
The Blackberry finally goes off-line today- A once high flying Tech company- disrupted by new technology

Meanwhile- The Market looks beyond- Ahead to a return to "Normal.
Will the Energy, Financial and Industrials take leadership this Jan?

[sd]

1-5-21 Nasdaq futures still in the Red premarket-It would be Close to being oversold I would think.
Covid spread on the Rise- Should push through the Country fast according to Gottlieb's expectations.
The markets continue to be focused on valuations, and the price multiple is coming down as areas get sold off-
AAPL at 30x - as one commentator put it this am- is trading at valuations based on pure speculation that AAPL will eventually enter the Auto, metaverse arena, and some expansion of it's future services platform-

S&P, Dow Flat

Sector strength- Copying yesterdays Closing to compare with today's action later into the open-


By Mid am, Energy continues to gain- note that on the Daily, Energy continues to be the leading sector, and on the Weekly, it has added several pts on the Weekly bar from yesterday's - Technology weekly performance is further in the Red compared to it's Weekly performance yesterday.



Big Changes came in reaction to the Fed Minutes interpreted as Hawkish!




Fiviz .com Screener - Comprehensive screening tool : In this case sorted in the Energy sector- Oil and Gas E&P Industry group with a "BUY" rating- finviz.com/screener.ashx?v=111&f=an_recom_buy,sec_energy&o=-change



Viewing the screener for Financials-Asset Managers- in the Performance category-

finviz.com/screener.ashx?v=141&f=an_recom_buybetter,geo_usa,ind_assetmanagement,sec_financial&o=pe&r=21

Learning Screening along with following market rotations will be a Tool I hope to acquire better use of in 2022- A lot to learn!

FANG, DVN, both broke higher yesterday - Bought DVN yesterday-adding Fang on a buy-stop today on ahigher move
filled @ 121.25 higher move

I added to the F position yesterday- F disappointed overnight in lower Sales- Having a slight drop from yesterday's all-time high- setting the stop to lock in net gains @ $23.49 . (+ 7% if it stops out.) Cramer- a Ford Fan- appeared to be a bit less enthusiastic on F this AM.
PM NOTE F SOLD $23.49 at the pullback low today!

I added to the MU position on the higher upmove- It increases my combined cost to $96.40 -
MU is reportedly viewed as being undervalued with plenty of upside in the year ahead-
I tightened the AVGO stop-loss to reduce the possible loss here from my recent entry-




AVGO
I entered the position at a higher price as price paused - anticipating it would breakout and go higher with strength in the Semis- In hindsight, I could have used a Buy-stop entry to get in above the top of the recent prices on a trend continuation. Today's red bar low 10 am $657, I raised my stop to $656.00 and expect this to be a net -9% loss $-60.00 on 3 shares.



Bought ABBV mid day- Despite the recent selling in healthcare- This is breaking out today and showed up on the PSAR/Elder combination scan for the NYSE - This provides a potentially narrow Risk trade if this breakout fails to hold.





mARKETS WEAKENING IN REACTION TO THE RELEASE OF THE fED MINUTES. Potential for earlier & higher rates, and a more Hawkish outlook.
10 year yield rising w/big jump 1.92% -
Nas dropping further this pm- as Tech gets unloaded. Dow turning South as well- recent position- using uncleared cash-

GS Analyst thinks there is substantial Demand for OIL- and that the path/demand for Oil is higher.as well as commodities- particularly Copper.

Fed Notes caused overall market weakness today- What was already low went lower it seems ; what was gaining stalled.
Huge jump in the 10 year yield today! 1.8%
Stopped out in the IB- TSLA, AVGO; vAN IRA-STOPS HIT IWM;RYT VAN ROTH :STOPS AAPL,EW,F,

CLOSING HIGHER ABOVE YESTERDAYS' cLOSE: SARK, ABBV.

Markets getting repriced here -
Should have considered the Day of a Fed meeting as potentially negative for the markets- just like a bad earnings report!
Woulda-Coulda-shoulda waited on some of those Adds with uncleared cash so I could have set stops!
That's a serious lesson to be taken away here- The inability to set a stop-loss under a position means I need to be able to wait and Trade only with settled Funds if I don't want the jeopardy of flying without a parachute to bail out with!

SANTA RALLY OFFICIALLY OVER !

Even the "Value" index reversed course today!


I'M Learning More About Scans- Trying to make Scans always intimidated me - I've used the basic pre made scans and find them easy to use and useful-
by adding just a simple phrase.....it reduces the results to more of what I am looking for.
However,
After a day like today (UGH!) I wanted to see what survived the day and saw strength - The predefined Scans for stocks making new 52 week highs came in with 213 nYSE and 86 new NASDAQ highs- but the majority of these reversed intraday and Closed Lower- By Adding the scan criteria AND [DAILY CLOSE > YESTERDAY'S HIGH] , IT REDUCES THE RETURNS TO JUST 21 for the NYSE and 9 for the Nasdaq ! The Phrase tells the scan to include only those stocks that Close above yesterday's high- Finding potential stocks or ETFs that show strength in spite of today's market response, may prove to be worth considering if they can continue higher-
To change to find results in the Nasdaq, change the NYSE in the [exchange = NYSE] to [exchange = Nasdaq]
ADD THE SCAN PHRASE: AND [DAILY CLOSE > YESTERDAY'S HIGH] tHIS NARROWS THE RESULTS to show only those stocks that Closed above the prior day's high.





This example of 1 of the returns of the scan that shows a stock that holds it's close above the prior day's high and is making a new 52 week high while all the markets are selling off and closing lower- Finding pockets of strength -such as this stock may prove to be- when the overall market exhibits fear and weakness- may prove to be worth considering in the day's ahead.




nASDAQ:

[sd]

1-6-22
After a market sell-off yesterday, Futures still point to weakness in the Nasdaq,
Crypto loses 7% thru yesterday... Why is it not a "Safety" trade? Thought it was being promoted as a Gold substitute.
Willing the selling be done today? We haven't had a big correction yet-



From JC PARETS- All Star Charts.com
following the Pelosi recent filings, he thinks MU is a potential breakout Buy-
(I'm holding a position presently in MU)


Trade- I'll be setting a buy-stop for an entry in CVS- one of the positive gainers in the PSAR scans from yesterday.


CVS Fails to go higher at the open-
Buy-stop not met, at today's open.


20 Min into the open :'Energy sector leading

At the Close:






lOSING IN TGT, DOWN - $9.00 ,
lOSING IN SMH
LOSS- TSLA STOPPED OUT YESTERDAY,

GAINING IN eNERGY, COMMODITY,SARK, FANG,DVN,XLE,DBE,OIH, PDBC,
REMX HAD SOLD ON MY $116.00 TARGET sell--tUESDAY, declining


Buying MSFT on the AM upturn $317.78 in IB- tHIS IS CATCHING THE PROVERBIAL FALLING KNIFE- BUT WITH A SMALL $7 RISK. Stop set below @ $311.00

MU in the green today-Holding up well in this market weakness.
The assumption is MSFT is a stock with exceptional earnings the last QTR - I locked in a gain on the prior trade, as it rolled over, hit a recent new low below the prior swing lows-$318.00 Stop $311.00
Selling in Tech is taking a pause this pm- possible opportunity for a try at an oversold bounce tomorrow-
Small short term trade - Buy RBLX buy-stop filled on the 1 hr chart $91.58-
CVS -no fill - The buy-stop order was cancelled since it did not execute-


Markets reversing higher-
Bought MSFT on the price reversal to the upside- $317.78 stop $311.00 ~ 2.6%
Bought back F in the Van-
Fang and DVN strong performance today
PXD interview- upside + 11% yield!
With volatility the word today, held off on stops- and saw that bounce from a low open on TGT, to move above yesterday's Close- Bounce play in the Retail space- Today's price recovery from an intraday low sets a wider stop-loss - that I'm using on the new trades. Trying to bet on an oversold bounce in the short term for stocks like RBLX, MSFT for a potential upmove Friday- but likely not at a bottom here...
Picked up a few shares of BRKB in the Van acct. The "value" play that is working this week.

bIG MOVES THIS WEEK IN eNERGY-
Adami thinks HAL- oil services GROUP will be a solid gainer-
Fast Money sheep picks: PYPL 35 pe;? KMX; FB ?; EQIX -reit? TGT downgraded.
bUYS- eog, apa gld BELOW $177


BIG MOVE IN NYSE STOCKS MAKING NEW HIGHS- (57) WITH HIGH SCTR RATINGS-ABOVE 80 (50)
AND SORTED TO SCTR RATINGS ABOVE 90. (37)
INCLUDES bANKS, oil/eNERGY



NASDAQ: The Nasdaq returns (26) primarily Banks! with a few Energy/Oil


By modifying the search to a Market Cap of 5,000 , it returned 10 both large and mid cap companies, eliminating the small caps .
Potentially participating in those large and mid cap stocks- with high volumes, will provide a better bid-ask spread. And reduces the number of charts to review.



Among this group above, I just added FANG to my Energy/oil positions, but potentially all of these others would be worth consideration as they have momentum on their side-
This type of scan certainly illuminates where the markets are favoring!

[sd]

1-7-2022
Futures slightly in the green- Nasdaq futures higher for a change! The Nasdaq has closed lower in the last 7/8 sessions.! The re pricing of stocks- occurring, sending prices down also brings the valuations down- Software has been
taken down hard- IGV, as well as ARKK Bitcoin/Crypto down as well. So much for the thesis that Bitcoin

I anticipate getting stopped out in the ARK short- SARK for a small gain today-



Tech specs taken yesterday- RBLX, MSFT - MSFT has had a shallow pullback- would expect to see both of these move up a bit today if the Nasdaq can open higher. Nas down this week -3% MSFT - Tech Bellweather with great earnings in the most recent quarter- and likely to perform well in 2022-
RBLX- a gaming/software Metaverse name- Filled the breakout gap yesterday-
the prior support range- may add to the position if it drops lower into the range.



This will likely take some wind from the energy and financials leading on today's performance, but I tend to think that Tech will not see a rapid recovery any time soon based on the consensus views of those commenting on CNBC.
Jobs report out today- Expecting a positive number to assist the markets to Rally!

WRONG! Market Futures Reversed to the RED sharply this premarket! Analyst Leisman saying that the actual jobs report is being interpretted incorrectly.....
Nasdaq futures reversing from Green back to the RED!

Yesterday's sector performance chart-
What will today bring to Close out the 1st Week of 2022- Will this set the direction for January?


The sector shift mid morning


Adding to The winning DVN energy position at the open- One of last year's big energy leaders -
adding to Fang
will add if RBLX drops lower
REMX- buy stop 112.50 112.75

Sloppy, I forgot to remove the RBLX stop that executed at the open- for a loss. I repurchased it @ $85.01 with a larger position.

15 minutes in, some Risk is on- Tech presently in the Green! Comm services and Financials leading,

Will want to see where the market is making gains after 10 am - may be a more accurate indication of where the markets may finish the day-


CNBC commentator that 40% of the Nasdaq is already down -50% from the high- with more downside anticipated !

Bad Jobs report- 10 yr rates Rising adding to the selling pressure of high valuation Tech! Yield jumps to 1.78%!
TBT heading higher! Energy, Financials, benefit from the move for yield and safety.


Tech Sector Software- AS a group- has seen selling since November 22-2021, with periods of basing in Dec.
Price action in Jan 2022 indicates a new leg lower on the WEEKLY, Closing below the Weekly 50 ema



Took the loss on TGT- Took a Risk by taking off the stop pre open, and waiting to see if Price would make a reversal higher- which occurred-
This was a Risky approach, but TGT as a retailer is not an over valued Tech stock- so We took the chance, price dropped hard, but reversed higher yesterday- Put in a higher stop today after 10 am which got taken out this am. Fortunately this made this a minor small % loss-



ADDED CNQ in IB- Canadian Energy - New High

\I'll be selling SARK @ $40.95 to lock in the gain for the weekend- Potential for Tech being oversold may become popular over the weekend-
2 day trade-But only a small position size - but well executed. Entry $36.91, Exits $39.65 ; $40.95 Net +7%; + 10.8% gains.
Did not want to Risk holding until Monday.




Crypto ending lower on the Week, challenging the lows made in September.
Indexes Close in the Red- Lower on the Week and for the Day!

EOD Markets think the FED has it wrong- Markets think the Fed is painting too grim a picture- and that the Inflation issue will come down much sooner than the Fed's dot plot indicates- Market's an optimist- Good time to be a realist and not get sucked in thinking we're off to the races in 2023. There will be good investments - but perhaps these will be different than what we're accustomed to....


Defensive- Healthcare- XLV held up this week- still have a position-
Utilities- XLU- sector to consider- Utility companies-