SD - 2022 - A YEAR TO LOSE LESS AND TO KEEP MORE !

[sd]

So what happens when Buy the -5% DIP doesn't get a move right back to making new Highs?
If someone has only traded since May 2020, that largely was their experience- Abnormal bull run and recovery-
At this point, there's a lot of market participants wakening up - disappointed- But the Hyped up popular Crypto, SPACS, MEME stocks- and highly valued Spec Tech without Earnings- ARKK- all had their shine and time in the SUN-
but not lately- Not only did 2021 bring on market rotations with a volatility and sector swing- that few could keep up with (self included) The rotation continues- and "Value' is subjective as we move forward-
I'm still inclined to have my Bias's , but when the financials broke the fast ema and rolled, as did the Energy positions this week, it was time to bail - Selling the most Recent F position as it dropped through the support level looks Smart now- even though it's a story stock with a Theme that likely works out well in the long run- I think Energy- and commodities- likely will continue to be winners in 2022, but I have to let the charts show me when the rest of the market is thinking it's time- and to determine what sectors to look into.

Holding a large % in cash presently is not a bad thing in a trading account- Investments should be more cautiously invested in 2022, and expect lesser returns- and more volatility Historical average returns are 8% and we've had 3 years above 20% Time for a reset- .
I'm allowing the investment focus to be managed by Edelman - Should prove interesting to see the results they deliver over this 1st year.

Slowly trying to learn Options- There's a definite wide learning curve both in the terminology and the concepts of structuring trades in different combinations- However, Options can provide a well defined Risk:Reward , as well as having the leverage for controlling 100 shares of a stock at a reduced cost-
There are different applications of combined setups- rather than simply going long or short - and- learning covered calls for those "Investments" to get added income may ultimately be smart for an investment position- as well as taking more tactical directional bets for shorter term trades- Long or Short-
It will take me a while to assimilate - and i plan to paper trade Options for several months once i think I have a grasp- Also, I am attending a Paid for training group with Prosper Trading- with Scott Bauer the instructor- for a 6 month initial period. While I'm going through many of the Prosper training videos, I think there is a tremendous amount of Free educational content on You Tube that anyone with the desire could access- Materials by Tom Sosnoff, Tasty Trade; Tony Zhang,
all a way to get a free education.


I get a Free Weekly email from JCPARETS- All Star Charts
get.allstarcharts.com/

He has an irreverent perspective that is also refreshing. But he tells it like it is-
Apparently getting a lot of e-mail from folks underwater -
His Free email is worth signing up for to get a wider perspective-

This week he responds:

I have a lot of conversations with these investors. And one common theme I've heard over the past few months is just how difficult of an environment this currently is.

A lot of traders are getting chopped up in this mess of a market. And it's not anything new, it's been messy for quite some time.

So you're not alone in this.

Please don't think you are.

We don't have to pretend like we're the only ones. There are plenty of other traders thinking the same things, having the same frustrations and wondering if we're alone.

I think the key difference is, What is everyone is doing about it?

Some are proactive with risk management. Others just close their eyes and pray. Or photoshop lasers in their eyes or whatever.

There are people who still haven't learned.

They bought a bunch of stocks or cryptos, and were left holding the bag.

So it becomes a, "Now what?" situation.

"JC, I own a ton of growth stocks and a bunch of nutscoins that are down 50-70% each. What should I do now? Sell them? Hold on to them? I don't know what to do?"

Long-time readers aren't in this situation because pretty much all we do is talk about how to avoid putting ourselves in these predicaments.

But for new readers and people reaching out from around the web, I still get questions that are pretty much something like the one above. The names and tickers certainly change with each cycle, but the story is basically the same - they bought a bunch of garbage and didn't manage risk responsibly.

Here is a copy of one of my responses from earlier this week,

Hey Jamie,

Thanks for reaching out.

Just remember, we're not financial advisors, so I have no possible way of knowing what you should do. That would depend on your personal objectives, time horizon and risk tolerance. So it's not my place to answer any of those for you.

But for us, keep in mind that in all of those names you mentioned, we've made it very very clear that we want no part of them. This is for some time now, so it's not anything new.

But I like to think about it like this: These are all liquid assets that you mentioned, which is one button away from cash.

So pretend that you woke up this morning and all your money was sitting in cash. And if you could do anything you wanted with that money, what would you do?

Would you buy that list of names?

If your answer is not a resounding yes, then I think you have your answer.

Remember, we always want to know where we're out before we even get in. That prevents us from ever being in these situations.

And to be clear, every successful investor I've ever met has been in this predicament. Which is why they became successful, because they put systems in place to avoid being in these situations ever again.

I hope that helps.

JC

Now let's review.

What are the important lessons here?

First of all, the only people who are wondering what to do now clearly went into the situation (or situations) without a plan.

That's the problem.

What did you think, that you were just always going to be right on every trade?

You won't be. Why would you think you would?

Granted, I'm sure you didn't actually believe that you're infallible. There probably just wasn't much thinking going on at all prior to entering into those positions.

After you do this long enough, you'll start entering your trades assuming you'll be wrong. Many of the best traders I know are actually wrong more often than their right. Yet, they're still incredibly profitable.

Because they know when to cut losses. They've predetermined their exits, before even entering the orders.

The idea is to calculate your max loss before putting in that order, and then position size accordingly. You want to visualize yourself booking the loss, so it's not a total shock when you actually do.

The surprise should NOT come when you're wrong, but in fact, it should be a pleasant surprise when you're actually right!

Another important lesson, that I can't even believe I need to say, is that HODL is not a strategy. It's just a meme! Like the kind to make people laugh.

By the way, is it pronounced Hoe-DL or Haw-DL?

You see, people on the youtube or those crazy laser eye folks, will tell you that you need to HODL and you need to BTFD and all sorts of silly things that are obviously a joke, but I guess not to them apparently.

These laser loonies are the joke.

But that doesn't mean you need to join them. You can just be one of us who laughs that sort of thing off. Like the joke it was intended to be....

Just wait, after you've been doing this a while you'll notice those types of people eventually go away. They get burned out and move on to something else. Some just disappear forever.

Go ask those silver surfers who got carted off on stretchers a little over a decade back. There are many of those who we've never heard from again. There will be people with lasers in their eyes or "growth investor" in their profiles who will disappear too.

I've seen it too many times to count.

I used to feel bad for them. I really did. But I moved on and stopped feeling any sympathy years ago. And I'm glad I did. It's not worth it. They won't listen anyway.

So to be clear, what's the solution here?

What is the "Prescriptive Model", if you will?

The answer is to have a plan. Know where you're out before you even get in.

Remember, if you get stopped out, you can always reenter into the position. There's nothing stopping you.

If you're an individual investor, you have a tremendous advantage over larger institutions. They can't be as nimble. They have to stick to their mandates. The need to accumulate and distribute whenever there's liquidity, not whenever they want like an individual can.

If you're an individual investor, you can do anything you want. You can sell your stock or ETF or Crypto seconds after you buy it. And then you can get back in seconds later. And sell it again. And then get in once more.

I'm not saying to over trade. I don't mean literally get in and out multiple times a day. All I'm reminding you about is your ability to do so.

Larger, professional investors don't have that freedom. I know because I speak to them daily.

Consider yourself lucky. Remember that you have an unfair advantage over the biggest, richest and most powerful investors in the world.

Don't take that lightly.

Rotation Is Real
Not everything is a loser.

Remember, the world doesn't care that some investors have mental issues and are obsessed with US Growth Stocks.

It's not the rest of the world's fault that some Americans can't overcome their home country bias.

No one else around the world cares that you ignored all the other countries that exist on this planet.

It's no one else's fault that you forgot that there are 3 asset classes, that include Commodities, not just stocks and bonds.

The rotation is real.

[sd]

Fed reports WED pm- That will set the tone for the markets!

Earnings coming in this week:



From Markethingych:

This Week's Earnings Announcements
Monday, January 24:
Brown & Brown, Inc. (BRO), Equity LifeStyle Properties, Inc. (ELS), Halliburton (HAL), International Business Machines Co. (IBM), Koninklijke Philips (PHG), Logitech International S.A. (LOGI), Southern Copper Co. (SCCO), Steel Dynamics, Inc. (STLD),

Tuesday, January 25:
3M (MMM), American Express (AXP), Archer-Daniels-Midland Company (ADM), Boston Properties, Inc. (BXP), Canadian National Railway (CNI), Capital One Financial Co. (COF), Citrix Systems, Inc. (CTXS), F5 Networks, Inc. (FFIV), General Electric (GE), Invesco Ltd. (IVZ), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), Lockheed Martin Co. (LMT), Microsoft Co. (MSFT), NextEra Energy, Inc. (NEE), PACCAR Inc (PCAR), Raytheon Technologies Co. (RTX), Telefonaktiebolaget LM Ericsson (publ) (ERIC), Texas Instruments Incorporated (TXN), United Microelectronics Co. (UMC), Verizon Communications Inc. (VZ),

Wednesday, January 26:
Abbott Laboratories (ABT), Ameriprise Financial, Inc. (AMP), Amphenol Co. (APH), Anthem, Inc. (ANTM), AT&T Inc. (T), Automatic Data Processing, Inc. (ADP), Chunghwa Telecom Co., Ltd. (CHT), Corning Incorporated (GLW), Crown Castle International Corp. (REIT) (CCI), Duke Realty Co. (DRE), Edwards Lifesciences Co. (EW), Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (FCX), General Dynamics Co. (GD), Great Wolf Resorts, Inc. (WOLF), Hess Co. (HES), Intel Co. (INTC), Kimberly-Clark Co. (KMB), Lam Research Co. (LRCX), Las Vegas Sands Corp. (LVS), MarketAxess Holdings Inc. (MKTX), Nasdaq, Inc. (NDAQ), Norfolk Southern Co. (NSC), Packaging Co. of America (PKG), PTC Inc. (PTC), Qualtrics International Inc. (XM), Raymond James (RJF), Rollins, Inc. (ROL), Seagate Technology Holdings plc (STX), ServiceNow, Inc. (NOW), TE Connectivity Ltd. (TEL), Teradyne, Inc. (TER), Tesla, Inc. (TSLA), The Boeing Company (BA), The Progressive Co. (PGR), United Rentals, Inc. (URI), Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated (VRTX), Whirlpool Co. (WHR), Xilinx, Inc. (XLNX),

Thursday, January 27:
A. O. Smith Co. (AOS), Altria Group, Inc. (MO), Apple Inc. (AAPL), Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (AJG), Atlassian Co. Plc (TEAM), Ball Co. (BLL), Canadian Pacific Railway Limited (CP), Canon Inc. (CAJ), Celanese Co. (CE), Comcast Co. (CMCSA), Danaher Co. (DHR), Dover Co. (DOV), Dow Inc. (DOW), East West Bancorp, Inc. (EWBC), Eastman Chemical (EMN), Fair Isaac Co. (FICO), HCA Healthcare, Inc. (HCA), International Paper (IP), Juniper Networks, Inc. (JNPR), KLA Co. (KLAC), Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc. (MMC), Mastercard Incorporated (MA), McCormick & Company, Incorporated (MKC), McDonald's Co. (MCD), Mondelez International, Inc. (MDLZ), MSCI Inc. (MSCI), Northrop Grumman Co. (NOC), Nucor Co. (NUE), NVR, Inc. (NVR), ResMed Inc. (RMD), Robert Half International Inc. (RHI), Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD), Rockwell Automation, Inc. (ROK), Rogers Communications Inc. (RCI), SAP SE (SAP), Southwest Airlines Co. (LUV), STMicroelectronics (STM), Stryker Co. (SYK), T. Rowe Price Group, Inc. (TROW), Teledyne Technologies Incorporated (TDY), Textron Inc. (TXT), The Blackstone Group Inc. (BX), The Sherwin-Williams Company (SHW), Tractor Supply (TSCO), Valero Energy Co. (VLO), Visa Inc. (V), W. R. Berkley Co. (WRB), Western Alliance Bancorporation (WAL), Western Digital Co. (WDC), Xcel Energy Inc. (XEL),

Friday, January 28:
Booz Allen Hamilton Holding Co. (BAH), Caterpillar Inc. (CAT), Charter Communications, Inc. (CHTR), Chevron Co. (CVX), Church & Dwight Co., Inc. (CHD), Colgate-Palmolive (CL), Kansas City Southern (KSU), LyondellBasell Industries (LYB), Phillips 66 (PSX), Synchrony Financial (SYF), V.F. Co. (VFC), Weyerhaeuser (WY),

[sd]

1-24-22
Futures looking deep in the RED- with the Nasdaq again looking to take it on the chin.
Not trying too second guess where the bottom may be- we're actually not down that far on the S&P compared to a normal correction of -say 10%- still a ways to go there.
Fed to speak again this Wednesday- Markets are pricing in a lot of stocks lower- including selling the value sector-VLUE, VIOV,

Still holding a couple of commodity positions and SLV with stops in place above my cost of entry-
OIl and Energy sold off last week- but that's one area to watch closely- HAL reports today- HAL/OIH.

Russia and Ukraine also in the news- OIl and Nat gas pricing will drive the stocks in that sector- I'm watching to see a turn to add back into some of the energy names- perhaps later this week- Crypto getting sold off hard- No inflation hedge there-

I did take a position long in TAIL-last week- a defensive move . Wish I had held the SARK position - stopped out for a miniscule gain on a raised stop-loss-


TAIL Up as expected as the mkts are down


Trading this as a short term momentum play- should see gains today-


A good day to focus on learning more about OPTIONS!

The tighter stop on SLV captures a small gain -


Sold PDBC as it is not seeing support -
Higher Cash Positions looking smart in the face of this selling.

We should see a bounce because of this downside push -MKTS will Rally if they think the Fed is going to continue to pause on the Rate Hikes- or be less aggressive.
Vix above 30-
2022 History in the making:

200 ema being hit/crossed across many indexes- No support being offered there.
The Dow:



SPY:


Nasdaq: Extremely oversold!


ARKK- Poster Child for High Valuation Speculative Tech stocks-



Volatility hitting a 1 year high !
Look for a snap back !
The Weekly:


the Daily VIX:


The Mid day View:




Consider that the Tenor of the markets has indeed shifted - and that the enthusiasm for RISK is gone, and that 2022 will be an economic reset for the US of A .

It likely will be much more important to be more of a tactical trader in what appears to be a correction year- after 3 years of +20% annual gains- We all tend to get accustomed to what we are familiar with- Trend trading - understanding where the momentum favors a position- or not-
needs to be part of one's market approach- Unless one is a long term investor- Then simply stay the course, keep on Buying in your IRA every month, and dollar cost average in as prices go on sale in these sell-offs- A 10 or even a 20% correction is not uncommon- and over the long term (years) is an opportunity to be Buying when things are on a Fire Sale-

Not necessarily for the shorter term trading account as an approach though!
It was difficult for my tight stop-loss approach in the shallow pullbacks (-5% ) `in 2021
Too many whipsaw trades- and often chasing to get back in. Chewed up gains , numerous small losses.
This deeper market decline favors that approach- at least from a relative performance point of view of losing less % wise- as long as I can take advantage of getting in at an appropriate point at lower prices.
Selecting what the markets will potentially favor will take some sorting out-
If OIl/Nat Gas indeeds goes higher- The Energy sector and associated stocks will likely continue to deliver in 2022- the outperforming value group in 2021-
Commodities- ag, metals, etc, will likely be in high demand with higher prices as inflation- and a global recovery , boosts demand.

Market has a short term focus- EV selling off-!
What is up today? Not much- NEW 52 WEEK LOWS- NYSE 347; Nasdaq 1052 !
New 52 week highs - NYSE -4; Nasdaq ~3......

late pm- selling slows, buyers stepping in -lots of DOJIS.
Got home later afternoon- 3:30 -did a lot of buying on the pm reversal.!
Buying in to the Close on the strong intraday reversal!

Closed the TAIL position- it hit partial trail stop and then I sold the remainder this pm .
Took small Spec trades in IB in COIN<TSLA.
Added in the Van IRA- CONSERVATIVE etfS- VNQ,PDBC,COMT,XLE,XLV

added BACK IN THE VAN ROTH- DBE,KWEB,DVN,EOG,MSFT Using uncleared funds-

This puts 75% of the Van account back into the markets- about 10k in uncleared cash.

aN AMAZING REVERSAL DAY!

[sd]

1-25-22 Futures back in the RED! Looks like we'll open lower- and I'm locked into holding those positions I bought yesterday with unsecured cash in the Van accounts-Volatility ahead of tomorrow's Fed minutes release. However, Those positions are likely one's I believe will provide good returns in the lower growth environment we're heading into. See how they hold up today.

The IB account is cleared funds- Holding a small TSLA and COIN position there-


opening an add DBC partial position.



The 10 am : UGLY


This is a 1 minute chart with a "Flash Crash"- don't know if this was accurate for those that had stops on the SPY below the recent range- Ridiculous 1 MINUTE DROP AND RECOVERY .



ADDING POSITION LNG- NAT GAS


MSFT earnings coming tonight- even with the recent decline, MSFT is still at a 32x PE -still lower than many tech stocks- but investors are clearly repricing all of tech at lower valuations.
"Value" can be considered in FB, GOOGL, with PE @ 22,25 and positive earnings gains and future prospects-positive.

Loading up in the Energy/Oil sector- leading today. All-in the Van and IB accounts

Taking a higher Risk by holding MSFT into tonights earnings- This will set the tone for the tech sector tomorrow- and perhaps the larger markets as well ahead of the Fed.

Took very small spec positions in SQ, PYPL, SOFI in the IB- These Fintech names have been sold off hard- but could easily drop much more if Tech sells-off- At this level, the lows made yesterday can serve as a potential stop-loss This is done in the IB account with cleared cash- anticipating that today's price action did not exceed the lows of yesterday- and that a "bottom"- in the short term is to be found there.

MSFT is down $50.00 from the $345.00 level-A 16% decline is Not that significant, and the few large cap names- AAPL, FB , similarly losing less than the balance of lesser tech names. but it is a bell weather for the Tech sector- and potentially a stock I would want to hold over the long term as a core holding in a portfolio-
Holdings into an earnings report is a crap-shoot, as I learned personally this past year with my biggest loss -with the stock I held dropping 20% + on the following day's open- Potentially it would be prudent to reduce my position size by half- and able to reduce my net cost if it sells off. Instead, I am setting a stop-limit sell order below yesterday's swing low for 1/2 the position

I am severely overweight in the Energy sector- With both index positions - XLE,OIH,FCG, Commodity exposures, and a number of individual names to get a diverse exposure in the drilling, exploration, refiners, and also Nat gas exposure. These names are still considered to be a better "value" and the expectation is that Oil and Energy may continue to see higher prices as demand eventually exceeds supply-
There have also been changes in the make up of a number of these companies, being more tactical in their approach to not over drilling- .

The sector performance at the close :

[sd]

MSFT delivered beats and positive upside guidance, but sees selling reaction in the after hours .
IB New Positions: These are all trades.
i.imgur.com/noDGApt.png[/img

The Van IRA- Intentionally diversified with exposure to Real estate, Healthcare, commodities, and JOET- Joe Terranova's ETF that tries to buy quality and momentum- I intentionally included the beaten down real estate and healthcare sectors as somewhat defensive sectors- and did not try to wait for a better entry on these- I may just allow this to be positioned as more of an investment portfolio vs the Van Roth


The Van Roth-
Primarily focused in commodity positions and Energy/oil positions- with MSFT


Note- the positive numbers in Green/red do not reflect gains/losses i made on any entry made today- This simply shows the % change from yesterdays Close- and the majority of these are new positions.
During the initial after hours reaction, MSFT dropped into the ~ 275 ~ level- but @ 6:50 PM , it is trading @ $695 +/- following the final earnings release/guidance- Perhaps cooler minds have assessed the stocks performance?

This excess market volatility and reversal actions `makes conventional stops simply a target to get taken out- and whipsawed- One still has to have a discipline to be willing to Sell - but you just cannot trust the 1st 30 minutes of the market's price action. Often that defines the Low of the day - or even the High-
A good example of this is today's Gap lower Open in the SPY, that set a bottom on today's price action.

[sd]

1-26-2022
What a nice surprise to wake up to a potentially bullish open today!
All futures up in the green- and MSFT showing a buying demand -up +4% premarket- The later hours guidance must have turned the tide to a more positive outlook!
While we know the Fed will tighten, ideally today's announcement will lay out a modest rate of adjustment planned by the Fed- That would potentially reassure the markets- and perhaps reduce the volatility - or the rate of push to the downside-
The small spec Fintech positions taken yesterday are -premarket -all up +3.5- +4% - while the energy positions are all up + 2+% - If those spec Fintech/Coin holds for the day, post FED minutes release, then
I feel that this week's bottom -was the near term lows.




MIDDAY- Solidly in the Green in all positions-
The Spec positions up 3%, MSFT +4%, OIL/energy/2% and the more Diverse Van IRA + 1% avg.
Critical response will be the reaction to the Fed- A less Hawkish Fed - slower on raising fewer rates will give this rally attempt a boost.
Small cash Freed in IB,VAN, -Bought SCHW- Financial wealth management/trading

Back to Options Class-

FED delivering the expected 1st rate increase in March, as anticipated. Separate statement on adjusting the Balance Sheet also has some concerns for the markets-
As Powell is speaking, markets are slipping lower.
Spec positions turning from Green into the RED-
TSLA REPORTS AFTER HRS- WILL HOLD
mARKETS GOING NEGATIVE, wHAT WAS ALL IN THE gREEN 1 HOUR AGO HAS NOW ROLLED red!
What Powell is sAying appears to be what was to be expected- but the markets reacting negatively!
Markets didn't like that Powell left the door open to be more aggressive on Rate hikes and addressing the Balance sheet- Markets wanted a Fed to be soft and squishy....Fed wanting to temper the markets to continue to give more rational expectations.
Another 900 + point swing on the Dow!
We're still making a bottom it would seem.




MARKETS REVERSING TO THE DOWNSIDE THIS AFTERNOON AS pOWELL IS STILL SPEAKING @ 3:20 PM




At the EOD, indexes closed lower as did most of my positions that were not energy related- MSFT & TSLA the noteable exceptions- holding some of their earlier upmoves-
TSLA earnings beat- see how the after hours guidance settles with the investor community.
Again, It's a new market- valuations count- I kept the SPEC trades though- down minimally- see how things shake out this week. Experimenting with not trying to get whipsawed with stops too tight-
TSLA print @ $940.00 @ 6:30 pm- good sign imo. MSFT held some of it's earlier gains-

I think the sell-off today was just sour grapes- Markets too accustomed to having the FeD apply the baby lotion the past years with everything they could do to coddle the markets- We know the Fed is behind the 8 ball in trying to combat inflation- they stalled taking action the past quarters by raising rates- not wanting to disrupt the recovery- Recovery is still underway- albeit slower than the Markets and the Fed want to see due to Omnicron, and the self serving want the punch bowl to stay on the table- Powell is saying that the punchbowl is being replaced - with a modest approach to a new diet.

[sd]

1-27-2022
Futures up! GDP +6.95!
Service NOW- Big earnings beat- Bodes well for the SAS group- IGV perhaps?
TSLA not making any big moves premarket- affected by supply /chip shortages- Sold as it declined after the open $893.36 loss Entry 911.47
Price was dropping fast at the open- while the markets are going higher- I opted to sell versus holding till the 10 am , not liking the price action.
Loss on 2 shares - $37.00 -TSLA beat est, but warned going forward.
MSFT up again, Markets all higher-@ 10 am , bodes well for the markets pricing in the Fed expected moves if we can hold at this level.


Energy sector leading- at this point- bodes well for the majority of my positions filled this week. Sector strength supporting the group.
In the IB my SPEC Fintech positions are all in the RED - below my entry cost- I'll likely be selling if these don't turn up this am. The losses on these are negating the gains from the other positions in IB. Not making much headway in that account due to the Specs lack of performance.

In the Van IRA- It is designed to be mostly indexes, with some diversity and so it will hopefully present more gradual changes- as a core type of portfolio-



The VAN ROTH is more aggressive, and represents my attempt to be in stocks (and indexes) that are in favor - As such, it has the potential to outperform the Van IRA IF my selections outperform-
As can be seen today, The majority of this account is primarily in the energy and commodity with other positions in MSFT, SCHW, and KWEB- I jumped into a small SCHW position with the last of the freed cash available in this account, and added a larger position in the IB account.


As of this am, I only have a stop on MSFT- and will be adding other stops today on the remaining positions-
Focus will be price holding above the fast uptrending ema-

Will take losses on the Losing positions in the IB-by selling based on stops on today's most recent lows- I really thought those spec Fintech had reached a bottom this week.
The early sell of TSLA looks prudent, as it is even lower, didn't bounce & recover- I suspect it goes down significantly on the disappointing guidance.

Sold COIN (cryto exchange) for a loss.
Viewing today's swing lows on SQ and SOFI- Would like to see them reverse higher- as PYPL is doing after todays earlier pullback.-
Setting the stops slightly below the recent swing low on all of these declining positions- Intentionally took only small positions on these SPECS -
Notice that they all declined yesterday into the CLOSE. aFTER REVIEWING THE CHART, AND WITH tECH RALLYING TODAY, SET THE SQ stop wider $104.90 -below the round number. What do these losing trades have in common? PERSISTENTLY DOWNTRENDING- SMALL RALLIES HAVE NOT BEEN ABLE TO MAKE A SOLID BOTTOM-YET.








mIDDAY, Nasdaq turning into the RED, sectors weakening- Does not look promising across the weakness and lack of buying across all the indexes.!
Energy turning lower as well! Is Energy now overbought and ready to reset lower?

AAPL to report after the Close! This will set the tone- hopefully it provides a beat and positive forward guidance like MSFT If Tech is to have any footing at this level.


EOD:



Earnings reports critical to the fate of this market- Strong beats and strong guidance forward is necessary in this environment!

APPL BEATS ! Despite supply shortages, AAPL beats on revenue, earnings, and gives pos forward guidance that the supply chain lag will improve as we move forward.
Bodes well for the attitude of the market! (Not a Position) But important for all things Tech I expect- Won't be any gain to the ARKK funds though-

VISA- V also beats- and stock moving higher after hours.

Robinhood disappoints- stock drops -

Interested in learning Options? It's a subject i am just starting to learn about- and a ways to go....LOL!
I'm finding it a challenge to learn this subject matter- requiring a lot of repetition-
Options offer a way to control a 100 share position of stock- for a specified period of time- with a defined max Risk -and also loss if done properly.

Options ALPHA on you tube also has a series of excellent videos- for the newcomer to the Options arena.
Also Consider starting here to get an education: Free @ TastyTrade.com Tom Sosnoff's company-
tastytrade.thinkific.com/courses/beginner-options-course

I'll link the sites i ultimately find informative back on the early 2022 PlaceHolder pages. This will take me a while to acquire an understanding....as a total novice intimidated by an area I always thought confusing in verbage and - after hearing the statistic that some 90% of all Options expire worthless- Why bother?
That was a narrow view though- as those likely refer to large institutional investors protecting their long positions- As a retail trader, Options offer a lot of flexibility in protecting one's positions, selling covered calls and making money , and in taking trades for a relatively small amount of premium to manage 100 shares -or more- of stock.....

[sd]

1-28-2022-Premarket Futures- Not looking pretty-
This Jan is the worst performer since 2008-.
I certainly had hoped -with the Spy -10% on the year, the Nasdaq-15%, Dow -9% that we'd be at that nominal -10% decline - and with Tech seeing good reports from the 2 Bellweathers,-that would help stabilize the markets here-
CVX disappointed-


Mid day- Big recovery-underway with the Nasdaq up + 2% !

Interesting dialogue on CNBC @ 12:00- JOSH slams Cramer's put down of Cathy Wood and ARKK fund on his show last night.
Saying it was way overdone and way too personal (unprofessional is the take-away) - and a fellow new commentator on the noon show agreed with Josh-

I'm holding long- only stop-loss is below PYPL, which appears to have potentially made a bottom-
COIN, SQ, and TSLA all trying to get above yesterday's lows. TSLA breached $800 today!
AAPL seeing a nice pop higher today, and MSFT recovering from a $294 low intraday-
V- up big today-raising Dow!
SPY & Nasdaq both Closing back up ~ at last week's low- Dow Closing just above last week's low.
A really choppy week, but at least it ended up more positive than it started off on Monday!
Note that the ARKK fund Closed the week -3% below last week's low- but above this week's low. (Not a position)

Dan Niles reminded everyone that he doesn't believe a bottom has been made for the year- He thinks we possibly get a small rally next week, but warns that the markets are still vulnerable and thinks we will see another -10% down from this level as the rate increases become the new reality-
I think it's prudent to realize we are in a new environment- Cannot simply trust the once popular tech stocks to be the future leaders- But AAPL and MSFT saved the markets this week!
Semis losing strength this week-



BOMB-CYCLONE-Huge storm Heading up the NE Coast this weekend with big Snow and winds near hurricane strength in some areas. Luckily North of us in NC.
US and Russia on edge over UKRAINE-
Potentially, OIL and Nat gas both rising in prices- a boost for the Energy positions- and possibly a good place to be if

[sd]

EOW- End of Week - Not very inspiring- all-in all- I went all-in this week- but took a few Spec trades in the IB account that stung a bit- Losses on SQ, Coin, TSLA- but PYPL still holding in there- as the final Spec based on Fintech-
Those positions selling will free up 3.7k for next week- and i'll look to be more inclined to not second guess bottoms- And the prior week that was RBLX- fortunately stopped out early as it declined closing below $60 this week- I'll look outside of SPECULATIVE Tech to trade those funds. -
I think it's worth noticing that even FB- considered a TECH/Metaverse value play by many failed to make a 1 week recovery- closing this week lower than last @ $301. iT REPORTS THIS wEDNESDAY.
OPTIONS CLASS - proceeding slowly, with a lot of replaying of the basics....Definitely testing my impatient side ...
aS well as the recognition that i don't have the same capacity to retain new information as well as I once did. Where did I put that Prevagen?

The Week's ending- The Van accounts fairly stable - All-in $44,588.00
IRA $ 22,102.00 ROTH $ 22,485.00 IB $ 17,524.00


WEEK 4 COMBINED VALUE : $ 62,111.00 A GAIN OF $1582 FROM LAST WEEK'S CLOSE.
HOWEVER, STARTED THE YEAR $61,721.00 SO A MINIMAL NET GAIN OF $390.00 - OR , i'M SIMPLY @ bREAKEVEN- nET $0.00 ytd but with an all-in position in the accounts- and without stops on most positions.

week3 RESULTS WERE:WEEK 3 combined Values= $60,529.00
COMPARED TO where I started the 2022 year,
started: Van IRA $22,039 ; Van Roth $21,600 ; IB ROTH $18,082.00 combined values = $61,721.00

Relative performance compared to the 3 indexes-
Nasdaq $Compq--12% ; SPY-7.2% ; DIA -4.6% cOMBINED average -7.9% ytd.

Reviewing the account values- This week and last week - the $500 + loss in the spec positions in the IB account for the underperformance- A similar theme was found in those positions I took- all were primarily already in established downtrends, and i was attempting to second guess that a bottom had been made and that the group- Fintech- was oversold- and would rally further- Of course, i was incorrect in that assumption, and allowed myself to get stopped out-
That accounts for the net losses and relative lack of performance-
As interesting as i find the challenge of seeking a bounce candidate off a potential bottom, it is known by me to be a much lower probability play, yet it has that "challenge' that one likes to think one nailed it at the lows....Of course, I am holding a KWEB position on that same impulse- and still have a position in PYPL. Of course, there is a happy medium - buying a stock that is uptrending on a drop back to the 50 ema is different than buying a stock that has the 50 ema below the 200 ema- and is solidly downtrending.
A final observation- While wide diversification with periodic rebalancing is recommended for most Portfolios, active management with a focus on narrowing the investment bandwidth relies on making better selections- May get it right- and outperform- or get it wrong and underperform the broad index. I'm hanging my hat on the energy/commodity sectors still delivering this year- If that sector should see a substantial decline, my over exposure would talk a considerable loss.
Presently that more concentrated exposure in the sector that is leading is the right place to be.

[sd]

If the markets are indeed going to be more volatile this year due to reactions to the Fed and -IF the rotation continues to favor more value oriented names- Market watch article favors holding XLE, SPYD, and XLP -ETFS-
XLE was an obvious outperformer in 2020- SPYD is a dividend focused ETF and XLP is the conservative Staples ETF-
tHE YTD PERFORMANCE CHART -Compares these to the S&P 500 (SPY), Large capTech (QQQ). The latter having a tough start to 2020, with Energy the clear outperformer these past 4 weeks.



Looking at a longer performance period- going back to Jan of 2021, Energy was the clear winner- but certainly looks parabolic now relative to the other indexes.
In 2nd place- The SPYD significantly outperformed the SPY last year and also this YTD as well- (Dark blue line)

With SPY not expected to deliver a huge outperformance this year, the SPYD would appear to be the better way to invest and get some Large Cap exposure- but certainly also likely to continue to outperform SPY.
The SPYD delivers a higher dividend payment- possibly being more value concentrated- I may want to add this in the Vanguard IRA account- and shift some allocations.
Note that Staples was the clear slower grower over that period, while large cap TECH has taken a beating.


To compare similar allocations for PORTFOLIO decision making- This next chart includes Berkshire Hathaway-BRK/B - Note that BRK/b does not share a Dividend- so the relative performance of SPYD/BRK/B is very similar- Both outperforming the SPY significantly with smaller declines- less volatility- and greater upside performance- In the most recent Decline- Spy dropped from 31% to 18%~ almost -13%
The SPYD decline was 7%, and BRKB declined -9%
So, Apples to Apples, in a short term comparisom , Spy underperforms both of the other choices with greater volatility.
SPYD with a dividend payout of 4.6% , SPY with a lower 1.29% , and BRK/B with 0.00%
would incline me to favor SPYD .
Nothing like a crash of momentum stocks to make one consider the fundamentals!


[b]FROM MARKET WATCH:[/b]

If you’re interested in these types of investment opportunities, keep reading below for an overview of 3 strong sector ETFs to consider buying now.
Select Sector SPDR Trust Energy ETF (NYSEARCA: XLE)
One of the big surprises thus far in 2022 has been the strength in the energy sector, which has been rallying while the overall market is off to one of the worst starts to a year on record. Demand for oil and gas is increasing as the world’s economy gets back to normal, which is certainly a positive for companies in the sector. Inflation is also impacting energy stocks in a good way, as rising oil prices mean better earnings for these companies. The pandemic essentially created a massive supply imbalance and also forced almost every oil and gas company to cut costs and improve their balance sheets amidst so much uncertainty, which could be another reason why these stocks are off to a hot start.

While there are plenty of strong individual names to choose from in the sector, the Select Sector SPDR Trust Energy ETF is perhaps the best way to play this trend. With an annual expense ratio of a mere 0.12% and a distribution yield of 4.21%, the XLE is a low-cost income-producing ETF that is an ideal way to add exposure to energy stocks. The fund’s top holdings include Exxon Mobil Corporation, Chevron Corporation, EOG Resources Schlumberger NV, ConocoPhillips, and more, which are some of the best names in the business.
SPDR Portfolio S&P 500 High Dividend ETF (NYSEARCA: SPYD)
Dividend stocks have been in the spotlight lately as investors look for places to park their capital to help deal with the rising threat of inflation. Investing in these types of stocks can be a great way to generate extra income and build long-term wealth, yet it can be difficult to determine which companies are going to be reliable over the years. After all, the worst-case scenario for a dividend investor is to see a company forced to cut its payout. That’s a big reason to consider adding the SPDR Portfolio S&P 500 High Dividend ETF to your plans.

This ETF tracks an index of the 80 highest-yielding stocks selected from the S&P 500, which means investors that are interested in high-quality large-cap dividend stocks should be very interested. The fund’s distribution yield comes in at 3.68% and offers exposure to appealing S&P components like Pfizer, Exxon Mobil, Baker Hughes Company, M&T Bank Corporation, and more. It’s worth noting that this ETF is trading well above its 200-day moving average while the major indices are not, which tells us that it is showing relative strength in a weak market environment.
Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSEARCA: XLP)


If you’re an investor that is concerned the market is signaling rough waters ahead for the economy, the Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund should definitely be on your shopping list. It’s a fund that includes some of the top consumer staples names in the world, which are businesses that can be relied on to put up consistent earnings in any economic circumstances. Think about products like toilet paper, snack foods, soft drinks, and cleaning products. These are items that are constantly in demand, which provides peace of mind to investors during periods of uncertainty.

This fund is another great option to consider thanks to its low 0.12% expense ratio and 2.28% distribution yield. It’s also outperforming the S&P 500 to start the year, which is a good indication of the types of stocks that investors are looking for in a volatile market. Top holdings for the Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund include Procter & Gamble, PepsiCo, Coca-Cola, Costco, Altria Group, Walmart, and more.[/i]




[/font]

[sd]

1-31-2022

Futures relatively negative- Premarket-
Earnings continue this week-


Has ARKK reached a bottom? That would be great for all things Tech. Will AAPL and MSFT continue to hold up the market, or succumb to the selling pressure?

CNBC had SARK fund mngr on today- Perhaps that signals the Top in the sell off in ARKK!


ADDING some BX with the IB freed cash- LOLO bought it last week- Financial-
adding to the PYPL position - as it is moving higher- PYPL was the only Fintech play I took last week that didn't stop out.
Since PYPL held above the Monday lows while the other Fintech declined further, it bodes well, and going into earnings tomorrow, I will set a stop @ $156.00, and fingers crossed that they can deliver-
Tech bouncing higher today!


EOD- Monday finishes up with a wide market Rally!
Tech made a nice pop today- and today was also some end of Month rebalancing-
Energy has been the outperformer this year- but soft today as money was put into the oversold sectors-


Since Energy has been the defensive sector, will it now become a source of cash as investors look to add back Growth with more of a Risk-on approach-?








Energy/oil stocks in the RED at today's start-

MSFT working- Oil/Energy positions not in the green today.

qqq's making a move off the Friday bottom! ARKK- up +7% !
Attending the Prosper Options -website-



For anyone interested in learning Options- Sign up @ TastyTrade for a layman's approach to understanding some of the concepts and terminology!
tastytrade.thinkific.com/courses/take/beginner-options-course

[sd]

2-1-22 Futures in the Green- UPS nice beat! PYPL reports today-


nICE GAINS ACROSS THE ACCOUNTS TODAY! New High for 2022 printing today-
Midday:






Another Day learning Options ......POP- Probability of Profit Tastytrade Free class.
tastytrade.thinkific.com/courses/take/beginner-options-course/
Makes what initially sounds complex understandable.




EOD- Energy positions gaining; PYPL disappoints and is down hard after hours-
Goog beats and announces a 20:1 split!
I won't be selling PYPL immediately at the drop in the Open , but it is down to $-149 after hours.
Earnings miss by $.01 guidance below , revenue made a beat. It's a $-224 loss/ drop after hrs.
I was surprised as this had held up earlier after last Monday's drop - compared to the other Fintech names...
Will see if there's any bounce by 10 am tomorrow. Holding- and adding to the position as it went into earnings,
was not the correct approach-Disappointed, thought it was already wrung out ...

That's the danger of holding any individual stock into an earnings report-
It's also in the IB account which is the higher Risk and hopefully the "Higher Reward" positions.

All the indexes Closed higher- as well as my other positions- so net,net; it's a good day overall.
Other positions are all in the green, and net profitable- some just slightly, so being somewhat diversified in the position Size worked in my favor on the PYPL disappointment not being an account bust....

And, made some more progress in learning the Options basics- The Tasty Trade format has tests to take as each level is completed...Challenging to "learn" and get outside of one's comfort zone. During the day i periodically also monitor the Prosper Options room led by Scott Bauer, the Options setups he presents, and the interactions with the "students' .

Will have to check out the Tastytrade.com site intraday soon though-

After hours- While i like watching the 5 pm CNBC fast money, followed by Cramer - Cramer was way out of line the other day ridiculing Cathy Wood and the ARKK fund- Pouring a bottle of Cutty SARK over a symbolic ARKK -and just not lighting it- He was promoting the SARK fund that is a short of Cathy Wood's fund- and indeed that may have marked the very Bottom -
Tonight , Cramer is all about promoting the top 10 ARKK holdings- as having been severely sold down to these bottom levels- This must be his "apology" for what was seen as a personal assault against the investment approach of Cathy Wood- I would hope this would be noted -by her- as the "Cramer Bottom" -While i haven't held any of the ARKK funds for some time, Cathy Wood is indeed a real visionary for what the future could be- She is also a realist- and knew her funds were in for a large "Doozy" of a correction- but i don't think she anticipated a
60% correction. I actually think in this environment that many of her positions are still over priced and ARKK will see another -25% downside to return to the levels @ $50- $60.00 - because earnings count-and PE ratios are what the markets are viewing-

[sd]

2-2-2022 Futures in the Green-
FB reports tonight- GOOG reported yesterday, and is up nicely 9.85% on it's beat-
Nas futures up +200 -
PYPL down to $143 after hours-premarket. My avg cost of 14 shares @ $163.87- so, looking at a $21.00 x 14 loss if sold at the open. Expecting the price to stabilize by 10 am - will view the price action into the open on a 2 min chart and sell 1/2 at the open- and then see how price reacts-setting a wider stop $140.00 on the remainder.
Setting stops @ $141 & 140
Premarket price is @ $141.75.

Stops execute $139.63!
Done, will use the proceeds -when they clear- to go long something uptrending-!
Had a nice gain- on paper-pre earnings .... and could have locked that in -Instead, my optimistic "expectations" (Greed) had me hold through earnings and today taking a relatively large % loss


FB tanks -20% + on an earnings disappointment! The forward guidance was also a big downbeat surprise!
This is pulling down many of the social media names! The Tech recovery may get erased when such a large held name as FB gets tossed hard- Like PYPL, it had headed up in recent days prior to earnings- Down to $251.50 in the after hours- losing -22% (-$71.00) - It will likely open lower in the AM as retail sellers exit

Similarly, SPOT beat on expectations, but offered lower guidance going forward and sees a -10% drop in the after hours. Will have to see how the markets assimilate the final guidance that is being discussed- Neither are positions for me.

This illustrates how the markets will punish those stocks that fail to meet expectations- While higher PE values are given to "growth" names, when that story fails to perform to the higher expectations, the rerating to a much lower valuation is the outcome- Never considered myself to be interested in Valuations and expectations- but they are certainly a major factor this past year uin reevaluating stocks. Even though this past quarter has seen many prices go lower, the bottom is still lower for many still highly priced stocks-
TSLA is marking a lower low last week- touching $800- and as i could easily see this go into the low $700 range if it doesn't get back above $1,000 soon- TSLA provided some conservative guidance, including limiting it's productions and expectations.

Conversely, Value is in the eye of the beholder- Even large cap Value- VLUE - had dropped -15% in the prior 2 weeks, and attempting to make a bit of an upside recovery .
Value in the small cap space is also under pressure- IWD recently bouncing off it's 200 ema last week.
Fortunately, the majority of the other positions are doing relatively well- BX in the asset management is ripping higher, while SCHW is Iffy.
KWEB is slightly in the red (-$12.00) in the Van Roth as a purely spec play
Energy positions have been good overall, with severAl yielding +10% gains since i bought-

This dog is having a bit of a struggle retaining the nuances of a vertical debit spread vs a long Put spread- Have to watch that rerun a bunch of times...and reread the literature-
Slow and steady wins they say...Definitely I've got the slow part down!

[sd]

2-3-2022

Nas Futures -400- FB- tanks further -stops in place.

[sd]

2-3-2022

Nas Futures -400- FB- tanks further -stops in place.


Yesterday pm I set stops under ALL positions-using the 2 hr chart . We'll see what the damage is -
FB really disappointed the market in results-and, more importantly- on the future guidance.

Down -$80.00 Another example of the futility of a stop loss when earnings are being reported!-From a $323 Close to open $245 ! A drop of 24%!



So far, only position hitting stops is BX- nets +4.7%




The mid morning sector summary sums up today


off to Class....

Going into the Close today- Tech is being sold off Today- AMZN is down -7% and reports tonight.
With 15 min left to the Close, BX remains my only position to hit the stop loss.



SNAP, AMZN, PINTEREST all beat on Earnings- Potentially slowing the decline in Tech!
Ford & CLX disappoint