SD - 2022 - A YEAR TO LOSE LESS AND TO KEEP MORE !

[sd]

2-4-2022
@ 8am , premarket Nas futures are in the green- so perhaps we'll see an oversold bounce today in the Tech sector-

Eventually Tech will get wrung out- Earnings season taking it's toll across the markets for anything considered pricey that fails to meet expectations and guidance- Definitely a Risk-Off mentality at the moment- All the more reason to watch the leadership- AAPL, Goog, and the recent pullback levels both have had-

Big jobs report- Jobs report comes in Strong- + wage increases- + revisions higher for December--
Futures going negative on the strong jobs report- Meaning the Fed maqy be inclined to raise rates sooner - or in higher increments.... perhaps a 50 bps vs a more gradual 25....
Buying ABBV $142.38 on the continuation of the breakout- stock is moving higher.
Stop loss is @ $137.90- Move faded after 10 am-

Had LNG in IB stop-out- still holding in the Van- tightened stops a bit more today-
Energy trade has been a good sector- but may see the Gov't do another strategic reserve release to bring oil prices/ inflation down- So trailing a stop-loss makes sense to ensure locking in some of the gains-

Wrapping up the week- it's been a tough week overall for the markets- Tech taking a whipping and just too volatile- total Crap shoot there, so I'm not in that segment -Other than MSFT, JOET.
Portfolio allocation is certainly skewed trying to follow sector strength, and that has been a net positive for the Month of Jan- Less volatile and some winners trending-


Wrapping up this week: Stops added under all positions-trying to lock in smaller losses and net gains.
The combined Van Account- $45,677 with VNQ stopping out today 2.6k cash to clear.
The IB ACCT $17,701
Combined $63,378

WEEK 5 - FORGOT TO "SAVE"

FROM wEEK 4 JAN 28 "WEEK 4 COMBINED VALUE : $ 62,111.00 A GAIN OF $1582 FROM LAST WEEK'S CLOSE.
HOWEVER, STARTED THE YEAR $61,721.00 SO A MINIMAL NET GAIN OF $390.00 - OR , i'M SIMPLY @ bREAKEVEN- nET $0.00 ytd but with an all-in position in the accounts- and without stops on most positions.

tHIS WEEK $63,378 - LAST WEEK $62,111 = A NET GAIN OF + $1,267.00
YTD-$63,378 - 61,721 = + $1,657 OR + 2.7%

That's a relatively modest gain that would be lost if stops were to execute at present levels.

Relative performance to the 3 indexes is still net positive, as the indexes are all still in losing territory from the start of the year-

DIA- 364.07 - 350.87 = -13.2 = -3.6%
SPY 476.30 - 448.70 = -27.6 = -5.8%
$COMPQ 15,732.50 -14,098= -1634.50 =-10.4%

COMBINED INDEXES - 19.8 / 3 = AVG LOSS OF -6.6% vs portfolio gain of +2.7% = relative outperformance.

Performance would have been better other than my taking on the additional Risk of what turned out to be losing trades in the Fintech area- PYPL, SQ, SOFI-
The relative net gains are due primarily to the winning Energy positions providing both the majority of my positions, and the net profits-

Presently, Oil prices are climbing higher- but that could be reversed by another release from the strategic reserve, or OPEC putting more supply on line. Tensions with Russia, Ukraine and high nat gas prices in Europe should continue to favor higher nat gas prices here as well-
The LNG position in IB stopped out on a tight stop- still a position in the Van.

The shift towards reasonable value has punished Tech, and it's out of habit one still wants to go there- The names are all familiar to us, and it's a normal reaction to want to stay with the past winners- After all, They have led for years- and they're so much cheaper now-
But, there is a definite transition occurring- and the survivors are few- GOOG being the bright light.

ABBV add this week was in response to it's good earnings and the price "break out higher.
Not wanting to give this much opportunity to fall back into the prior base though, so a reasonably tight stop is in place. My entry Friday on the open momentum saw a decline the remainder of the day-
My intentionally tight stop in BX was taken out on the 1st pullback- These short momentum runs- well away from the fast ema, typically come back closer to the ema by lower price action- BX is a name I will look to add back if the stock moves higher. (Intl Financial)

While Energy has led the Sector performance graphs for the long and the shorter periods, Consumer cyclicals put in a good show for this week- along with Energy still strong.

[sd]

2-7-2022 Markets open in the Green!

Energy weak at the open-

Don't know that i trust anything from China- I do Own KWEB as a Spec flyer-Small position- no hard stop
From the psar Scan-Today- China Petroleum and Chemical - Nice range base breakout Entry $53.68 Stop-loss $52.55
Rationale for trade- Energy has been a strong sector- Putin just met with XI in China @ Olympics-
A breakout assumes Energy consumption is still increasing in the global markets (recovery)
Predominant uptrend- 3 week sideways base followed a nice 15% upmove in Jan

tHAT being said, I've elected to apply a relatively tight stop-loss of 2.1%, as a technical trade- However, the wider stop-loss Risk of 5.2% (set just below the $52 round number and the low of the recent 3 week range )
would also be more of an Investment stop-loss.


SCHW position is working higher- Financial- asset management.
Similarly, looking for BX to make another leg higher off this recent pullback to make a reentry- Also Global financial.
SCHW was a recent entry -at $90.67- It's still within the sloppy wide basing range- and has not broken $94.00- I entered because this is a prominant name, Financial sector- think it had earnings-1-18 that missed slightly, but it hasw rebounded with a dbl bottom $85.00 - asset manager will make $$$ on the trading/IRA accounts. With the recent swing low $88.75, I'm tightening my stop to $89.90


The 2 hr chart looks promising, but notice the choppy price action compared to BX
But BX is weakening today, breaking below $130



The BX chart:Sold the initial pullback day- didn't know how far it might drop-
a definite candidate to take a reentry on a future move higher.



Late am- Markets shifting- Energy positions were weak to begin the day in the Red, All turning higher-
CVX up +2% - new high- range breakout!

Just focusing the majority of the port to stay with those areas exhibiting strength-

Market Call- Guy Adami and Dan Nathan @ 5 pm- The 11 am had Carter Worth & co discussing Energy- perhaps over rextended.https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nMPZbaEcE_g


Adjusted stops higher this pm- OIL/Energy names continue to trend higher-
SNP stop raised to $53.30 /2 hr psar stop

Working through THETA & VEGA


TOM BOWLEY - article posted on holging through earnings- crapshoot but Relative Strength may be a good indication of the results-
stockcharts.com/articles/tradingplaces/2022/02/how-do-earnings-and-relative-s-373.html





CATHY WOOD -FROM FEB 4-- STRONG CONVICTION IN HER RESEARCH! www.youtube.com/watch?v=giydAxJTeow

TICKER SYMBOL :YOU Talks about the difference (and somewhat shameful episode (@ 3 +min in video-) Cramer as more entertainer/self promoter vs financial guide. That particular episode was followed 2-3 days later with a mea culpa of sorts as Cramer highlighted 10 of the ARKK holdings that potentially would be the future winners-

www.youtube.com/watch?v=vyKGCW-Oeig

CW believes the technologies she is promoting are "converging" companies and that convergence will prompt a disruption to the status quo- but that vision will likely take considerable time, and volatility- and will also come at a cost of more reasonable price expectations. I enjoy watching Cramer, but his put down of the CW ARKK fund bordered on a personal attack on the Air, that seemed a step outside of being rationally critical of the ARKK thesis.

[sd]

2-8-2022
Futures relatively Flat....

tAKING A run @ BX


I had enough freed cash in the IB-
The present pullback is still a bullish flag.

Modified the order with a higher limit


BX did fill - still going lower-


tHAT WAS A SHORT LIVED TRADE!- SMALL LOSS AS IT HIT THE $127 STOP-LOSS



The rationale for this split order-
BX is a strong global financial- the present pause in the recent turn higher should be considered as a bullish and shallow flag- If I get a fill at this lower level- I have a stop-loss @ $127.00 should price take a dive lower-. In the event the stock moves to a breakout level-above $133.10, I will be adding to the position.
Will evaluate the order @ 10 am .
(Should Have bought PTON at the OPEN LOL!)

FCG stops out w/gains.
Energy sector weak on this open. I anticipate a number of my energy stops could be executed.
A few energy positions are stopping out this am-Energy Sector is weak today- (Rotation?)




as EXPECTED- Tight stops in the Energy positions getting executed- Net locking in some gains- Not a bad thing, since a gain on paper looks good- until it is gone. Still have a number of energy positions in positive territory

ahh- hERE'S THE why OIL IS DOWN-Shook by the "news-"
February 8, 2022
2:56 PM EST
Last Updated 5 min ago
Oil slides over 2% from 7-year high on more U.S.-Iran talks
It's political gamesmanship- Biden wants the cost of Oil to decline- due to the upcoming elections and Inflation www.reuters.com/business/oil-slips-7-year-highs-ahead-more-us-iran-talks-2022-02-08/

@ EOD- ADDED back KBE in the Van IRA with Freed cash-
Sold out of 30.7k in energy positions weakening - across the VAN and IB .
Suddenly, I'm almost 50% in cash! The negative aspect is that I've sold a lot of the stocks and ETFs that were in the leading Energy sector- Dominating the markets over the past year in relative performance. The positive aspect is that I've applied a short term trading approach; the energy sector is exhibiting short term weakness- and by taking off the relatively small gains- and preventing a possible larger give-back- or even a loss, I'm prepared to resume the trades once the trend higher resumes- Energy- as a group- has been a real outperformer, but over the past week, has not been in the leadership position-
So, energy as a group responds to higher Energy demand causing an increase in Price (profits),
as long as there is a scarcity and not an over-supply of product- Today's sell-off may have been a simple reaction by large funds seeing a potential increase in the world market's supply-
I will plan to reinvest in the sector-looking for a bit of a pullback this week to provide a lower reentry.

SCHW, ABBV, DBA trending positions- and adding the KBE on today's higher move for financials-

[sd]

2-9-2022 Futures all solidly in the Green!

Buying BX- Upmove -
Bought today in the IB and the Van (unsecured funds) so no stop is allowed yet- Once a stop is allowed- yesterdays pullback that stopped me out of my entry would set today's entry with a stop @ $126.00

Yesterday's get in at a low waqs whipsawed as it dropped below where I had set a $127 stop-on that entry-


Nice finish for BX at the EOD...


Off to Options class-Having to do plenty of u-turns,go-backs, and review and re-reads!
At least for myself, this comes with a substantial learning curve, that I hope will pay-off in the months ahead....
Attending live Prosper trading sessions just goes to illustrate how much I need to learn.....Still have 5 weeks of winter ahead, so this is a good time.


At the EOD, market sectors all positive with TECH gaining the most!
This is suggesting the markets may feel we have anticipated the upcoming rate increases, and -perhaps- that some Tech is indeed at a reasonable valuation. Interesting- I had doubled the DBA -ag position in the Van and it jumped out today....not a big mover, but seems steady.....
If OIL prices indeed see a bit of a decline- further selling of the Energy positions is a strong likelihood-
My adds of BX and JOET dbl of the position is just a gut reaction to what appears to be a more confident market-and possible rotation.
This possible rotation underway is what compels me to defensively take relatively small profits in exchange for tight trailing stops-

[sd]

2-10-2022 Dow futures in the Green thanks to the strong Beat yesterday by DISney .
The Nas and S&P slightly red- but plenty of time before the Open-
Looking for a 2nd day of markets showing strength to confirm yesterday's bullish sector performance-
Cash has cleared -
Large add into BX yesterday- Financial related positions in SCHW, KBE.

CPI = inflation assessment coming out today!


CPI Comes in higher than expected 0.06% vs expected 0.04% means inflation remains higher than expected! 7.7% 1 yr increase!
Fed rate hike in March are now viewing the likelihood of the Fed tightening by .50 vs .25

Nasdaq futures drop into the Red hard! Tech won't be seeing any upmoves -

Bank stocks in the green premarket on this report.
Will the commodity funds & energy funds see increased demand?
Dow futures and S&P all deeper into the RED-

fREED CASH BACK IN THE vAN ACCTS-Added to the energy and commodity positions .
COMT,PDBC,XLE; EOG,DBE,DBC

Van accounts are now all-in again- No free cash-
Added to the SCHW position in the IB-on the pullback today-
Adding to ABBV


late am- markets reversing into the green!
ADDED ARKK in the IB! Also added to SNP, DVN in the IB account-
Presently back to an all-in status-




PM- Markets rolling over- Fed Pres Bullard apparently projected that the markets should expect a full 1% rate hike -by mid summer/July with progressive .25 hikes starting in March. Markets pricing in a .50 pt raise in March- Stocks dropping lower in the pm.

Mid afternoon- markets near session lows

[sd]

2-11-21- Futures flat, turning somewhat towards the green. Thank goodness for Friday's!
Yesterday went all-in-when it was looking bullish- but that rolled over- on Bullards comments about aggressive rate hikes- Today, other Fed officials speaking a more moderate tone- with a more measured approach to rate hikes- seeking a balance between reducing inflation and increasing rates.

I'm viewing my MSFT position as a stand -in for conservative and profitable Tech-
Wed looked like it would be making a new uptrend, and yesterday it fell back and almost touched the $300 mark
My cost basis for MSFT was a $295 basis- and the $300 level represents support-
I did go out on the Risk spectrum by initiating a position in ARKK yesterday-

The volatility yesterday saw almost all of my positions closing the day in the Red compared to the day prior.
Today, expecting a possible volatile open, but optimistic that the markets will end up closing higher than yesterday. Since the majority of my positions are in uptrends, I've pulled the tight stops off- not wanting to get whipsawed-
mid day-
Energy is the sole outperformer- and the place to be today-
An "Emergency"Fed meeting scheduled for this Monday! Markets getting spooked-
The "RECESSION" WORD IS NOW BEING CONSIDERED A FUTURE OUTCOME!



kNEE jERK REACTION- Sold- dumped MSFT, BX , ARKK majority of JOET- Bought TAIL

This was a total gut reaction to get out of those vulnerable positions- and thus locking in losses as they were just entered into yesterday. As so often occurs, volatility is often just a 1 or 2 day event, and then any reaction sees a recovery back to the norm-
However, We're not just talking about volatility due to concern about the Fed's surprise meeting, we have the added influence of the White House coming out and essentially issuing an URGENT warning for all US personnel to get out of Ukraine, within 24 hours!
Any sort of military action that draws the US into potential conflict is a no-win for the markets- Conversely, any military action will be a potential disruption of the global energy supply, and also the Oil and Nat Gas Europe is dependant on Russia for-
I bailed on those positions that were also being sold by institutions today enmasse. - The Energy positions I hold reduced the impact of my selling off the other positions-
And, I took the other side of Risk-off by taking a 200 share position in TAIL as a defensive contrarian holding

The EOW sector performance:
i.imgur.com/8Lwz8Ag.png/img]

The End Of Week summary:

Vanguard Account Closes the Week @ $45,287.00
IRA 22,439.00
Roth 22,848.00
IB ROTH 17,347.00

COMBINED : $ 62,634.00

tHIS WEEK REPRESENTS A -$744.00 LOSS COMPARED TO LAST WEEK'S $63,378.00 COMBINED TALLY
fROM THE START OF 2022- $61,721.00 - $62,634.00 = + $913.00 OR + 1.5% ytd GAIN.

uSING THE 3 INDEXES AS MY PERFORMANCE BENCHMARK:

DIA- 364.07 - 347.29 = -16.78 = = -4.6%
SPY 476.30 - 440.46 = -35.84 = -7.5%
$COMPQ 15,732.50 -13,791 =- 1941 =-12.34
tOTAL -24.44 /3 = -8.15% FOR THE 3 INDEX AVERAGE LOSSES YTD.

RELATIVE PERFORMANCE DIFFERENCE = 9.65% PERSONAL PERFORMANCE VS THE INDEXES.

While this was not an impressive week for my combined accounts, and my gains for the year are minimal compared to last week's better +2.7% net gain; The indexes had a net loss last week of -6.6% and I had a gain of 2.7% = 9.3% difference.
This weeks relative performance had a slight improvement of + 9.65% difference. a small satisfaction-
Had i not jumped back in yesterday- and sold out today, My losses would have been considerably less.
In the past, I had been reactive to such "News" as the Budget isn't going to be approved- but those all become non-events despite the HYPE- Even the Fed increases are hyped- because we all know they are coming- just how quickly- and how many are the unknowns-
But a potential War that involves Russia and US allies? That's an event that cannot be underestimated-
That is why the Energy positions all made large gains today- and offset my losing positions.

One has to ask themselves if any of this is worth the potential RISK-
It was difficult enough with the Fed uncertainity, and the political situation at home-Inflation above 7%, Toss in a potential Black Swan of a conflict between the US and Russia- and there are no winners-
Those that promote long term investing often cite the losses of purchasing power one has due to inflation.
Well, if you were invested heavily in Tech this week, the index was down-12% YTD- in a matter of a relatively few 6 weeks-The Inflation rate is a measure of a 1 year loss of purchasing power-
What has been the results of the past 1 year on one's account balances?
It has been a tough 1 year, as Tech peaked last Feb 2021-

Things have indeed changed this last year- and the market transitions as we go forward will bring opportunity for some- that have been able to adapt.

Taking a look at the bigger picture of the 3 indexes, they all look headed further to the downside-






sMALL CAPS

ENERGY ;XLE A DIFFERENT STORY



IF- AND IT'S A BIG IF- War actually does breakout with Russia/Ukraine- that would be a shock to the markets-with a magnitude we haven't seen in recent years.
The assumption is that the Energy & defense sectors would see great demand , while the majority of the other growth indexes- would see selling as institutions reposition ..... Conversely, if nothing occurs, the markets could find a reason to hold a relief rally-
For those with years ahead to go, this will become just a momentary blip in the history books-
HOWEVER:
Perhaps this very provocative cover is indeed signaling the bottom is near:

[sd]

2-14-2022- Futures turning into the green due to possible "Talks" between Russia and Ukraine-
As often happens when the "News" is bad, the markets reaction is often quick- and the potential for a bounce here is strong based on a reduction in the immediate threat-
That said, I have to remain defensive- With MSFT, GOOG both posting stellar earnings beats, but selling off last week, it suggests that pops higher are sell opportunities- and not likely to be a resumption of an uptrend-
Similarly, I'm heavily positioned in Energy/commodities, and they will likely pullback if the threat of a disruption in the energy supply is being perceived as less probable.....

The Nasdaq had been in the green earlier- PM "news" cites a tweet by Ukraine president that says Russia will invade Wednesday, this is in contrast with what the russian diplomats are saying, that they want to have talks-
WTI crude hitting a new year high $95-
Overall, futures are not down large - approx -1%

Back to Options-class...

[sd]

2-15-2022 Market Futures in the green due to reports that Russia is reducing troops along the Ukraine border-

This will likely result in continued weakness in the energy positions as the potential disruption of energy supplies may be averted.

Yesterday, the commodity positions continued to show strength-COMT,DBC,DBE,PDBC

So, the Global volatility, and the US / Fed / rate volatility are certainly enough to be disruptive .

sINCE jAN 3 , 2022 tHE 4 INDEXES - DOW, S&P, QQQ, IWM (SMALL CAPS) Have all been losing value.

What is noticeable is how closely they follow each other directionally, with both Tech and Small caps the weakest of the 4. The uptrending Blue line is the XLE

The prior bottom -Jan 26 saw a move higher that weakened last week- So the question to ask, will this rally today be the start of a new move higher that can exceed last week's highs? What is the catalyst as earnings wrap up?
GOOG posted great earnings, but look at the sell-off post earnings.



COMMODITY POSITIONS -Performing much better compared to the indexes - Trending well in 2022- Commodities give exposure to other aspects of the markets and not just Energy- and also pay dividends. As inflation and the return to normal will likely see increased demand for Agriculture, metals, and perhaps Gold & Silver - My expectation is that if the Energy positions decline-from the recent highs, they will still remain strong into the recovery in the months ahead.



EOD- Market Rallies as news that Russia may be standing down from an invasion-
As anticipated, this prompted Oil and energy stocks to slide .....and caught me red handed in several positions in the IB-
I also added to several positions today- expecting that we have a short term pop this week.

[sd]

2-16-2022 Premarket futures were in the Red, now Flat-
Retail sales came in beating estimates .
Market rally took out my Tail protective position-small loss- as so often occurs-just as I think the markets are due to make a big drop, some news event- Russia-moderates the bearish sentiment-
Tom Lee may be correct- Feb may see an oversold rally ....but any rally is a potential chance to take off some profits and get defensive- or allocate into different conservative value positions-
In that vein, I did Buy some CLF yesterday- and offset that conservative position in the IB with COIN-
If the markets rally, Energy stocks are overbought and will be sold off more- I set stops under all of my positions based on yesterday's pullback lows- Down large in SNP on a gapdown-China oil play in the IB- so that account is taking a trashing-
Took a very small 8 share spec position ($560.00) in RBLX yesterday -ahead of earnings- it has been trashed -and well off it's highs- and it's down -20% overnight- on an earnings miss. All of the FB Hype about FB turning into META and focusing on the metaverse as the future of the FB stock- Well- perhaps the metaverse will indeed become as popular in the next few years as MSFT, FB, NFLX ?
Apparently , FB has bought the META name-FB dropping even lower today-$215 (not a position) -Down -43% from it's 380 highs in September 2021.

Previously, the META ETF - focused on the companies in the metaverse- has changed it's ticker to METV
www.roundhillinvestments.com/etf/metv/#:~:text=The%20current%20ticker%20for%20the,until%20January%2031%2C%202022).

At the open, Energy & Commodity positions all higher from yesterday's pullback- DVN pops +5% on earnings.
I'm holding 8k in cash in the 2 van accounts-
Bought an additional 10 Coin- Holding 20 between Van & IB-
Nat gas -UNG climbing- adding to the EOG position on the pullback/move higher today.
Bought ABNB as a recovery play & stock momentum earlier today. Target sell $210.00 , just below the prior range highs--
looking for a +10% gain.



@ EOD:Materials and Energy gain

[sd]

2-17-22 Futures slightly in the RED premarket-
The US reinforced yesterday in news conferences that they do not believe Russia actually made any troop withdrawals, and pointed out that Russia was actually falsely trying to promote the idea of Mass graves - Russian defender/people killed by Ukrainians as a false narrative to initiate military action.
We'll see where this all goes this week- disruptive to the markets- but good for the in security of the energy supply- which is a positive for energy stocks. However, Energy stocks are all now getting priced at higher multiples than what has been seen for the past half a decade. If we get another momentum run up in the energy stocks, I intend to trail at least 1/2 a position to lock in gains close to the price action- and big gap away moves- similarly opportunities to take some off.

Walmart & CSCO beat earnings- Markets looking for companies with positive cash flows.
NVDA reports beat but soft on profit margins- expect NVDA weakness to be a drag on the entire semi sector-SMH ranging at the 200 ema & 50 ema in decline. PE 81.85 Price to Sales 29.44!
Never thought i'd become so aware of the fundamentals as the driver of where the markets see "value"- After Growth has been the net driver in recent years- and the real outperformer- Now, as markets are like the turtle- pulling it's head back into the value shell, the extended and highly priced stocks have taken a bath- When will enough be enough?

EVEN Roblox - RBLX is a perfect example of the market tossing out companies that do not have positive cash flow- despite the promise of future earnings- eventually- I held my small position purchased on the bullish move the week before earnings, but RBLX is now below it's IPO price lows- $60.00
Offset RBLX with a real Value-play - according to "farmer jim' - CLF
Looking forward to listening to Cathy Wood on CNBC this noon hour.....
So, RBLX -and Coin are 2 specs I'm holding Coin expected to not break the recent $190 swing low made last week- Presently @ $203.00.
ABNB- position- recovery play.
Options learning is proceeding slowly- The different terminology in Options spreads, , the Greeks, Delta, Vega, Theta etc-
all playing a role on the price of the Option- and needing to be understood-
As i attend the Prosper Trading "class" with actual live trades being initiated, the students exchange with the instructor- Scott in a Chat space on the site- and Scott is patiently taking people by the hand and walking them through their common mistakes- Even when all of the trade proposals are sent out and posted with specifics- many enter the trades with the wrong strikes- or reverse the spread Buy and Sell of the Option-
They encourage all of those learning options- to do simulated trading- and they like the TOS- Think or Swim brokerage for Options as their go-to format

Cathy Wood of ARK Funds gave a solid 1 Hr to open questions and criticisms to CNBC- Scott moderator asked some tough questions as well as a few from the panel- CW a nod to Josh for defending the personal attack by Cramer

Selling Coin on todays weakness/taking the loss- just a spur of the moment entry that I know was dicey-
There goes the budget for that trip to Vegas!m

EOD- Markets all tanking- Find any reason- Ukrain e, FED,Inflation, Fear, Cathy WOOD- tech believer did not turn the tide with her CNBC presentation today- NVDA miss- all of this despite the upcoming lifting of the mask mandate by the CDC, The Omnicrom virus is not expected to be a major threat- and 75% of Americans are considered to be immune now...
Friday is Options expiration- and a 3 day weekend! Markets unremitting- Commodity & energy positions the only saving grace for my positions- but didn't like yesterday's lack of participation in the energy sector.
I'm cutting loose RYT, Tight stops CLF, Can RBLX drop any lower? I see even MSFT has joined the stocks with great earnings yet being sold off...
Sometimes, it's simply not the playfield to stay in- at least for the near term-

[sd]

2-18-22 Options expiration today- May be a market mover!
Futures are in the green premarket!

Mid day- Ukraine invasion expected- WSJ-
Fed sets limits/restrictions on how much of stock/etfs/indexes trading....

Expect bigger volatility today other than Options EXP.

Giving in to the market volatility- Holding on to the energy & commodity positions, but selling RYT, JOET, ABNB ;Taking a bigger loss on RBLX -although a small position- a continued loser is just a loser.
Indexes will be retesting the prior lows--and if War occurs over the weekend, the drop may be substantial!

Chamath P cashed out of his many SPACS last year, resigns from Virgin Galactic...Of course, he sold when the spacs were much higher, and also collected management fees during his ownership period- leaving those that drank the SPAC Kool-Aid with a likely loss on their investment dollars.....

[sd]

Tough week for the markets- and myself as well with some self inflicted stock gamble decisions-
Was this just boredom? possibly-
Too Busy this am to get the EOWeek Tally done- but will get to it later- possibly today- going to pick up the granddaughters this am...
It sounds like tensions in the Ukraine are rising, with cyber attacks on their infrastructure.
A 3 day weekend for the markets- plenty of time for things to unravel , or come to the table with an agreement...
Total toss of the dice as to how this will work out- I think 60% that some agreement/concession will hold off an actual invasion- but thats why I'd lose playing in Vegas...

[sd]

2-20-2022 End of Week Summary:
Last week's 2-11 Summary -
The End Of Week summary:

Vanguard Account Closes the Week @ $45,287.00
IRA 22,439.00
Roth 22,848.00
IB ROTH 17,347.00

COMBINED : $ 62,634.00

tHIS WEEK REPRESENTS A -$744.00 LOSS COMPARED TO LAST WEEK'S $63,378.00 COMBINED TALLY
fROM THE START OF 2022- $61,721.00 - $62,634.00 = + $913.00 OR + 1.5% ytd GAIN.

uSING THE 3 INDEXES AS MY PERFORMANCE BENCHMARK:

DIA- 364.07 - 347.29 = -16.78 = = -4.6%
SPY 476.30 - 440.46 = -35.84 = -7.5%
$COMPQ 15,732.50 -13,791 =- 1941 =-12.34
tOTAL -24.44 /3 = -8.15% FOR THE 3 INDEX AVERAGE LOSSES YTD.

RELATIVE PERFORMANCE DIFFERENCE = 9.65% PERSONAL PERFORMANCE VS THE INDEXES.


Unfortunately, this week's summary shows further declinesw- both for the markets and for my accounts- The reality is that I allowed myself a couple of impulsive Risk trades COIN, RBLX -perhaps out of sheer boredom- that quickly became larger losses- I had also jumped back into RYT/ JOET thinking it was also oversold, aND WE WERE BOUNCING HIGHER- WRONG! but as the markets sold off at the end of the week, I cut all of these positions- because I think we potentially go even lower in the broad markets. Proving that Buying the dips in this downtrending market is not a prudent strategy
Most of my energy/commodity positions held above their stops , but that could quickly change this week if the Ukraine situation resolves: the price of energy will be seen as potentially stabilizing- but the larger view is that energy prices will likely climb further this year- How that translates into continued support for energy stocks moving higher remains to be determined- Similarly, the commodity funds- some that are discretionary funds that can- at their discretion- hold futures in precious metals, softs- (Wheat, soybeans, corn etc) , as well as funds like DBA that are primarily focused on AGriculture....

Get to the UGLY: YTD:

DIA- 364.07 - 340.98 = -23.09 = -6.34 %
SPY 476.30 - 434.23 = -42.07 = -8.83 %
$COMPQ 15,732.50 -13548.07 =-2184.43 = -13.88 %
combined -29.05 =-9.68% loss in 2022

Personal Account:

COMPARED TO where I started the 2022 year,
started: Van IRA $22,039 ; Van Roth $21,600 ; IB ROTH $18,082.00 combined values = $61,721.00

this week: Van IRA $22,215 ; Van Roth $22,104 ; IB roth $16,449.00 combined values= $60,768.00 YTD Loss= -$953=-1.5%

Obviously the large net losses in the IB ROTH putting the portfolio into negative territory YTD.
Relative outperformance compared to the indexes on a "Losing Less Than" basis.

The Roth account continues to lose- as it has been my " RISK " go to- and compared to last week's IB value $17,347 ,
it has lost an additional $898.00 for the week .

So, what one tracks, can be measured- Once measured, the results can be reviewed, analyzed, and -if not what one wants or expects, it suggests it's time to consider making adjustments.
Presently, in the IB I only hold 2 oil/energy positions. DVN & SNP- with SNP gapping lower last week- It bounced off the gap day low, off the 50 ema, but it has violated the trend- just as it did in October 2021- eventually dropping 16%. Presently, it's recent pullback matched the swing low made in Jan, but from a higher high.
My entry in SNP was on the breakout up move which had a pullback on Monday -2-14 (blue bar) That single day's move Closing below the fast ema touching the 21 potentially would have been the correct place to tighten a stop-loss- but the recent volatility swings have been wide- often closing back higher after a drop- The following failure last week to recover and get back above the 21 ema- looks almost identical to what occurred last October as price dropped back to the 50 ema- bouncewd slightly, and then made a deeper gap down below the 50 ema, eventually declining an additional -10% .



I could talk about STUPID (RBLX) (COIN) for persisting in trying to capture short term bottoms for a reward in a downtrend- Not working out well for me , perhaps another day-

Keeping some life Balance- Do what you enjoy-
Other than the challenge of Trading, and Learning Options, take time to have FUN! Fishing with LOLO will soon become something we starty as the weather warms, and then there is the Spring Fever......

GARDEN:Spring is 7 weeks away, but spring fever is starting as we get a few 60 and even 70 degrees days now and then.
Got to get the grow lights set up,(ordered 4' LED T8 bulbs) seed flats loaded, and finish a couple of elevated raised garden beds-
My youngest daughter- very health conscious in what she and her family consumes, has developed a desire to grow her
own vegetables. Should be the subject in a different thread, but- what the heck....Gardening- at least in the Spring comes in a close 2nd next to fishing! -
Since I have an abundant surplus of various construction materials left over from commercial projects, the cost of constructing the beds is minimal-
Will make a raised bed mix of compost, soils/peat/vermiculite/leaf mulch- The "Beds" are constructed of commercial roofing metal - 24" deep, and will be built on top of metal decking that will be sitting on 8" concrete blocks - preventing the many moles and voles from getting inbto the beds- One alternative barrier to these critters I use for those areas we grow in the ground is to dig around the bed a trench 10" deep, and put a 12" wide sheet of galvanized expanded metal lath in the trench and allow it to extend up above the ground several inches- so far that has done the trick, with the moles tunneling up and along the lath , but not digging down deep enough to get below the lath and into the bed area. Sun is up, may hit 50 today- time to construct...
Later....

[sd]

Practicing Yoga and Mindfulness would likely be a good method to reduce the stress of making a bad trade- or a series of bad trades.

BUT, that likely takes a lot of work.

Instead, I'll take refuge in reciting this ancient Indian trading wisdom proverb-

It's done with 5 repitions while breathing deeply, and progressively speeding up the verses-outloud.



@ 17:30 www.youtube.com/watch?v=yMVVCpFGAgQ

[sd]

Monday, Presidents day Holiday- markets closed in the US but not overseas.
Putin justifies Russian troops entering 2 Eastern Ukranian provinces/states in support of Russian separatists.
Putin also released criticism of his predecessors actions, giving up on Russian prior domains. -going back to Nikita Khrushchev ( President Kennedy's Foe in the 1960s- & Cuban missle Crisis)
Kennedy won btw- because he didn't back down- Ballsy democratic President that haqd the support of the country.

That was the early years of the potential for further Nuclear Expansion and fears-HOME Bomb shelters and war rehersals in schools were common in the late 50's and early 1960's- and fortunately that nuclear line was never crossed after the destruction of Nagasaki, and Hiroshima -ending World War 2.

In the world we live in today, there is a delicate balance that needs to be maintained and that is understood by most-

Yet, physical aggression - by PUTIN will be met by sanctions- for what difference they may make- in the face of an invasion into UKRAINE based on a false flag event- It's escalating the tensions- albeit on the guise of "Peace Keeping"- and telling the russian people Ukraine has attacked Russia.

The US is telling the President Zylenski to leave the KIEV capital.
President Biden threatening "sanctions" doesn't seem to have any concerns for PUTIN.
After all, he commands the primary energy supplies that the European countries rely on for Heat, Lights/Energy

While the US had become energy independent under Trumps policies-

Putin's desire is to reclaim what used to be parts of the prior Russian empire-

This is a very real international disruption to a global recovery, with Russia controlling the energy supplies for many of the European and scandanavian countries- including Germany-

Because of the Biden ESG policy , US energy production has also been restricted- and energy production curtailed ....
All part of the grand plan to go Carbon neutral and get away from fossil fuels- however, the Reality is we are a decade away from seeing that on a scale in the US- although we are headed that way.

Interestingly, the ESG and EV move towards battery operated vehicles has only increased the Electric demand in china and other countries that are reliant on COAL burning to produce energy to meet the increased demand. The emmissions from Coal burning continue to be a major contributor to global pollution/ and a significant contributor to what some believe is the global warming disaster. In the interim- Using plentiful US Nat Gas is a much cleaner source- or Nuclear- Perhaps -someday we can harness the unlimited supply offered by Hydrogen- should we not destroy one another in the process- Unfortunately, the fanatics - on many fronts, keep the global turmoil on a slow boil.....
Unfortunately, when we deal with fanatics- religious or otherwise- Our sense of Logic

Tomorrow, the focus will not be the markets- Got the elevated garden bed frames segments constructed, and will deliver and assemble at my daughter's house so she can enoy the fruits of her garden labors-