SD - 2022 - A YEAR TO LOSE LESS AND TO KEEP MORE !

[sd]

[sd]

4-4-2022


Have to postpone the fishing trip until later- perhaps WED-
Futures are in the Green and Nasdaq +67....
Unemployment rate is now back at a relatively historic low -3.6%
Fed Gov Powell - "Europe is heading for a recession due to the Ukraine war"
Inflation is still strong acrsoss many segments- and likely continues on a global scale-
China is slowing- and has a realestate bubble - oversupply, hyped prices-
Yield curve inversion 2yr/10 yr still in play- recession ahead- just is it in 6 months or 18 months?
Fed likely will tighten by a series of 50 BPS hikes in coming adjustments- With a close eye on the inflation
scores- Too much -too soon could stifle growth- and push the Recession word ....

Transports are dropping as rates drop as demand slows.

[sd]

4-5-2022
Some Fed spokesperson came out bearish today? That skewereed the market- Brairnard- Nominee to be Fed Chief- Turns bearish. Time to raise some CASH!!! Rising rate hikes are the only Fed tool to combat inflation- and those rise in rates will affect all kinds of business as well as as home loans- and the Home construction industry- has been in decline since Jan. and likely goes lower as rates rise and prospective buyers can no longer afford higher priced home loans for overpriced houses. view the ITB ....
My mindset is pretty straight forward - I've better things to do than struggle to find a trend that one can trust- So it's time to raise some cash:


photos courtesy Getty Images

Market reversal day- Following yesterdays positive upmove and bullish Close in the indexes, both the SPY and QQQ's gave back all of those gains and Closed lower below the Friday Close-
What I found relatively consequential about the price action, is that my energy positions all participated to the downside as well- and they usually perform well when the indexes struggle-
I pretty much set stops under every position low tonight- and if the weakness continues tomorrow, stops will execute, and I'll be happy with holding cash.
Listening to Guy Adami, and Dan Nathan- fast money - they have been pointing out for quite some time that the market's rally is still within a bear market- and their experienced expectations are that many of the market participants/retail traders have not experienced a Fed with policies that are going to be more restrictive than supportive-
DOW theory often refers to growth in the Transports- Rails, Trucking - as a sign of higher economic demand- a plus for an economy- Transports are dropping hard this Month - Particularly today-
Semis are rolling over, Autos will remain hamstrung by supply issues, the jobs report is bullish, but there are millions of unfilled jobs-coming in at higher costs for materials as well as labor.
Leon Cooperman cited the rise in wages as a problem- GEEZ- why can't the guys on the low end be paid more?
The wage/wealth disparity is indeed a growing issue-

Anyways- spent the day out in the garden- came in to find my UNG position (Nat Gas) had a nice gap up move, but several stocks that have nat gas exposure that I just recently bought - WMB, KMI in the portfolio dropped with the markets today- Whipsaw move or indicating lower prices will follow-?

Stops will do their jobs tomorrow, or later this week-
Other than thinking that the commodity / energy positions will continue to ultimately go higher this year,
I think the caution expressed by the Fast Money crew that we can likely see a deeper reset in markets is well worth paying attention to- Plus the war in Ukraine is destabilizing- to global economies- and it brutally continues....
So, I may put the cash on a back burner and not plan to try to find the next small pop higher - Other things to attend to - and occupy my time with challenges Fishing, Gardening, Grafting, and Family.


Off topic: MOles, Voles, and Pears- OH MY!
I'm going off tangent here to talk about some of the garden issues, experiments, projects-
What a resource is Youtube!
Spend a few hours searching and voila!
we have seen a large increase in moles and voles in my yard and my neighbors as well-
Obviously, I cannot use poison in the ground near any of the fruit trees,Pears, Figs, and they are all mulched and that's a natural go-to for the critters-keeps them warm and protected in the winter, plenty of earthworms to eat...
I'll try using the castor oil granules sold at lowes to divert the varmits into the lawn area, and I'm also using the AMDRO Gopher Gasser- fused gas cartidges - that you insert in a tunnel, light the fuse, and it gasses out a sulfur compound to asphixiate the varmit.
I Will try to use the castor oil granules that are sold at Lowe's as a deterrent - you sprinkle them in an area, water in, and it causes the critters to find another area to live in- The goal is to progressively treat sections of your yard, give the critters a motivation to move, treat the next area, and chase them into your neighbor's yard. LOL!

Got some Blueberry bushes I have to move into raised beds- I had originally put them into a low area in the yard because I had read that they like moisture- However, while they like moisture, they don't like to be sitting in wet- just damp. And they need a very low 4.5-5.5 PH to do well - I've recently started testing the PH levels im my yard and raised bed comntainers- and making adjustments .
The plants have struggled there - and several died- and I'm down to 5 plants .
Additionally, the moles/voles have tunneled around the plants, and I'm surrounding the plants with a metal barrier made of galvanized metal Lath- It is used for plaster work - comes in sheets 27" wide x 8' long-
I cut the sheets in half- to end up with 2 pieces 13.5" wide x 8' .
Very flexible; bend them into a circle, overlap a few inches, tie the 2 ends together- and it's a good barrier-for the rodents tunneling-

To be continued later-
I started an Off Topic thread in the Members Photos Album section dgoriginal.proboards.com/thread/760/sds-topic-garden-ventures-pursuits

[sd]

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4-6-21
Futures are all in the Red- Brainards announcement on Fed policy rate changes to be substantial finally got the market's attention.
One of the bank projections for the economy cited on CNBC expects 50 bpts raises on successive Fed meetings-
and a stock market that will be 20% lower due to a recession in 2023-....
Premarket- TWTR<AAPL<TSLA,MSFT,QQQ's lower- a few energy names in the green- including XLE index.
Short indexes may be the place to go-
QID shorts Tech-2x leveraged
SARK shorts ARKK
Proshares offers inverse etfs- I am not allowed in the IRA to use leveraged ETFS, but potentially can use 1x inverse ETFS. However, adapting one's approach to changing conditions -if the markets decline, swapping to a short inverse fund gains on the downside.
www.proshares.com/strategies/leveraged-and-inverse?gclid=CjwKCAjw9LSSBhBsEiwAKtf0n60ci2n7lahPiKH8V-CpxZUCIFO8oJMlrjUtKaAryXECDSJNqpm75BoC2P8QAvD_BwE#strategy_geared_page_tabs

1x SH- Shorts the S&P
1x PSQ Shorts the QQQ's
1x DOG Shorts the Dow
1x RWM Shorts the Russell 2000
If allowed, I may dip a toe into these ETFs believing that the markets are inclined to dip lower this week-
When markets decline, they often decline much faster than they rose- Stairs on the way up, Elevator on the way down....
Today , I will use IB as it allows Buy-stop with limit entries and has some 3k in free cash to apply.
Instead of shorting the QQQ's ,because of the dominance of AAPL, GOOG etc, I will consider shorting the ARKK fund using SARK with a Buy-stop w/limit . AARK does not hold the traditional large cap Tech, but holds the higher valuation more speculative tech names-
ARKK has been making a trend reversal higher since March 16- Putting in a sideways consolidation , Closing at a low yesterday $66.48



The inverse is SARK:



SARK Buy-stop $46.15 limit $46.30- small partial position order

DOG- Buy-STOP $32.95 lmt 33.20 small partial position.

RWM- Buy-stop $22.25-lmt $22.55 (already Closed $22.34)
Forgot to post this in the am-
Got filled on DOG, RWM;SARK gapped higher above my limit - no fill.
Stops hit ENPH,URA<JETS<QQQ,AAPL,TAN,ABNB

[sd]

Markets relatively flat preopen-
Holding the energy & commodiuty positions without stops;
Going to watch the open and then back into the yard- Blueberry plants to finish relocating this am priority.

Markets attempt a recovery today- didn't watch at all. Still on the Blueberry renovation...

The Stock Market Bubble -how do you evaluate your exposure in the event we have a deeper decline- and more extended?
thestockbubble.com/inverted-thinking/

[sd]

4-8-2022
Thankgoodness it's a Friday!
Futures are higher premarket-
Still holding 2 small short positions (RWM,DOG) along with the energy and commodity stocks.
I expect my buy-stop- limit Short order vs ARKK- SARK $46.30 will remain untouched today if tech manages to hold in the green today-
Holding 23k-almost 50% in cash in the Van accounts-and not trusting these rallies-
Defense makes sense going forward.
I have held a posion in XLV- healthcare for some time now- and it broke out higher yesterday in a big momentum move-XLV-is seen as a defensive position- I may add to this today after 10 am to see if we get a pullback.
Utilities-Defense- -XLU has been trending higher for 2 weeks- Not a position, but I will start one on a pullback to the fast ema-
Holding the energy/commodities ...as well as the ESG focused ICLN.
ICLN has been uptrending since March- focused on "Clean Energy" Broke above it's 200 ema in April- with this week having a shallow retest of the breakout- right at the 200 ema . This one is difficult to judge as it periodically moves -not always in the direction I expect. Similarly, TAN has hit my stop earlier and I'm on the sidelines with it.
Cramer thinks the inflation cycle has topped out- or is at it's peak- He views the trucking/transport slowdown as a sign that we were overdone in our fear- But this market with yet to experience the impact of rising Fed rates is still vulnerable.
Tsla hit my last stop on the remaining 1 share this week-$1,070.94 as it pulled back from that Apr 2 high- with a drop below the fast ema Wed, Thurs. -Filled the Gap from Mar 25- Let's see if it gains today- or goes lower-Support starts @ the $950 level-
Decent profits on my 2 shares- will see about following it and the EV trade- How will higher rates affect auto loans???
Elon Musk celebrated at it's new Texas factory yesterday....
Tsla is clearly the best positioned car mfg for the long run- but if consumer sentiment continues to be even more negative,, consumer demand turning fearful, will that not be a substantial negative on their willingness to spend thousands on a high priced EV?
F,GM,RIVN all in decline....but trying to make a trend reversal today-



Added to the existing XLV position on the gap yesterday-
Initiated a partial position in XLU, with a limit ADD on a pullback to $76.10

A few minutes into the open, the indexes all down in the Red, with the Nasdaq -1% @ 9:42 am
I'll watch SARK after the 10 am to determine if I want to chase it's higher price.
QQQ'S ROLLING OVER- Weakness in large cap Tech; AAPL;AMZN,GOOG

After some heavy rains overnight- it's bluesky and sunshine- and I'll be heading out to the yard stuff today....
Will take a later glance at the markets....

Rain shower chased me inside- Seeing F, GM trying to reverse higher- bought this upturn- stop-loss $14.75

[sd]

End of WEEK- I'll get to a recap/summary in more detail a bit later-
Energy and commodities closed the day in the green.
QQQ's lower-
The Van accounts combined :$47,989.00 Van Ira $25,034.00
The IB account $16,750.00 Van Roth $22,954.00 Both down slightly from last week's Close
Combined Accounts: $64,739.00

[sd]

-4-11-22

Went fishing....A day on the Lake- great relaxation,
Markets tanked-
Look for that retest -considerably lower!
Look at the disaster with the highly respected FANG- stocks-
If they are unable to hold the line, look out below!
TSLA breaking down- again- Looking for the $700 -$750 level as a panic sell-off
The small short positions are working-
My energy stocks are a mix- some gains, some losing-
UNG-and DBA, F 3 gainers - but cannot offset the losers!

Market participants realizing it's a new game with the FED raising rates-

Bitcoin is showing it's not a go-to store of value! Gapping down while the GLD
Semis tanking- almost to the prior lows....
So, what is recession proof?

[sd]

4-12-22
Futures flat several hours premarket....
Going to be a busy day with garden plants to set, mulch to distribute,

Not much time for the markets today!
Will potentially increase my short positions;Held in the IB account.
UNG nat gas position is trending well. Presently a +17% net gain.
Presently breaking out to a new high- expect the gap to see a pullback- may add to the position.
Will add to the DBA (ag position) .

[sd]

4-13-22

Futures up modestly premarket-
Don't fight the Trend! Unplug your brain
Go with the groups that are strong and working- forget what worked yesterday. Message from Jason Leavitt
www.youtube.com/watch?v=VunVhMyLj2Q
www.youtube.com/watch?v=BBHzXG9Eicw&t=7720s

Set stops under my short positions-will be a small loss .....
Added to the energy /Nat gas positions- UNG is ripping higher-too extended to add to it- WMB starting to trend higher- Instead , starting a new position in FCG- ; DBE, FCG,

Initiating a new trade in the steel - NUE- new high breakout this week-
Added 50 GBTC to the existing position in IB.
Will add in the VAN -m SLX index at a recent high- Clf offers a potential entry here as well on the pullback off the highs. Will add CLF as well.
Jets on today's bounce as a trade-
TSLA - just 1 share @ $1020 as a trade- stop $970.00 added a 2nd share....


Back to the garden!

I placed a limit order $41.00 for GDX for Thursday Open.

[sd]

Elon Musk offers to Buy 100% of TWTR shares for $54.00/share! Offer may be withdrawn 4-20 based on getting added financing!

Fed governor Waller declaring that inflation has likely peaked-but that rate hikes need to continue.

Futures are in the Green with a few hours to go before the Open-

Oil prices lower this am based on supply speculation.

EOD- Spent the day in the Garden- GDX position filled at the open. TSLA closed down -3%-
NUE wenton to make a new high, while CLF closed near todays low-
Jets higher-
Nasdaq closed down -2% , with the S&P losing -1.2%, dOW CLOSING LOWER- sHABBY WAY TO END THE WEEK ON A WHIMPER....

SEMIS -SMH AT the March lows- TSM reported and beat estimates and raised guidance, but still got sold off after an initial gap move higher open, to Close lower-
NVDA also Closing at a low $212.58...
RWM-short got stropped out this am as it intially dropped lower, but Closed up +1% -
Still holding a small position in DOG....

[sd]

End Of WEEK- Vanguard total $48,432.00
IRA $25,257.00
Roth $23,175.00
IB $17,200.00

Will compare to the markets later when time allows-
Guess which sector was the weeks leader? .....YUP....Energy-Again...Maybe there's a persistent trend going on there?

Conversely, Technology is the biggest sector loser YTD....

[sd]

Futures slightly in the Red this Monday-
Weather cold and rainy after a gorgeous perfect Easter Sunday-So I'm inside today!
Will be viewing the Options site today- Tasty Trade.com-
Haven't opened an Options account -yet-
Bitcoin close to $39k-down- Gold is up;
TSLA up slightly -
Mohamed Elerian -crypto prior gains were based on the liquidity factor-and crypto is also being revalued as there is lesser liquidity. Recession is our Risk scenario- along with stagflation-
"We are no where near the end of the inflation challenge". He projects that we will have a Fed in a real conundrum; If they raise rates excessively, it shuts the economy down and we fall into a recession-
If they don't get rates higher to stall some growth, inflation may continue to persist above the Fed's 2% target for several years-



From "The WEEK Ahead-

"Earnings season is here, and it may distract investors from other issues, but it’s not likely to be the big driver of the overall market this week.
Investors instead will keep an eye on the things that have been worrying the market — interest rates, inflation and war in Ukraine — and they will be sifting through company commentaries to see how these things are impacting the bottom line. According to data from Refinitiv, earnings are expected to increase by 6.3% for the first quarter.



Rising bond yields were weighing on the stock market this past week, and the 10-year Treasury yield made a rapid move up to 2.82%, jumping 14 basis points from last Friday.



Economic Reports of Note (All Times Eastern):


Monday

8:30 am - US: Business leaders survey
10:00 am - US: NAHB home builders survey
4:00 pm - US: St. Louis Fed President Bullard speaks

Tuesday

8:30 am - US: Housing starts

12:05 pm - US: Chicago Fed President Evans speaks





Wednesday



8:30 am - Canada: CPI
10:00 am - US: Existing home sales
10:30 am - US: Crude oil inventories
10:30 am - US: San Francisco Fed President Daly speaks
2:00 pm - US: Beige book
7:30 pm - Japan: CPI

Thursday


5:00 am - EUR: CPI

8:30 am - US: Weekly jobless claims

8:30 am - US: Philadelphia Fed manufacturing
1:00 pm - US: Fed Chair Powell and ECB President Lagarde speak


Friday



9:45 am - US: Manufacturing PMI

9:45 am - US: Services PMI


UNG gap high open today-up + 6% !Presently that's a +33% gain in 2 short weeks. Splitting stops on the position to lock in the higher move-Cost basis for 100 share position $20.175 Raising the stops to take higher gains- but one stop set under the gap low open-
using the 5 min chart to view with the intent to raise the stop under the vwap.





Sold CLF on weakness; NUE position is trending higher though- making a new high while CLF is not seeing any Buying strength.
Taking my loss on CLF....



@ 11:20 - price made an attempt higher- tightened stop


a BIT AFTER 12:00- UNG still trending higher- Gap + outsized move- adjusting both stops higher, trailing the positive price action .


@ 1:20


@ 12:30- UNG is just shy of $28.00- Ratcheting both stops a bit higher- Both are above the Vwap - Momentum may stall here- So, if both stops get sold here- it would average a net +36% gain- The momentum could work in both directions- so, I'm willing to consider that this move is excessive- and will revert to the mean this week. Notice on the daily chart that past gaps well away from the ema often are followed by a price reversion.



FCG is also trending higher - a recent add last week. much slower and less volatile than UNG.



@ 1:20, UNG is printing some RED Elder bars-potentially has topped well above the vwap. Stop may get hit soon.
i.imgur.com/vEAeNtR.png
Stop hit $27.59 @ 1:21 -



Final Stop hit 1:25 pm - That was fast! Net gains for both stops Averaged is +36%




UNG ended up making a lower Base going into the CLOSE

[sd]

4-19-2022

Futures slightly in the Green....
Yesterday sold the UNG position with intentionally tight stops using the 5 minute charts- Net gains averaged +36%
My rationale was that price was extended-and well away from the ema-and would likely 'revert to the mean'.
it has often done so in the past when extended. We'll see how this plays out today-

Yup- mean reversion @ work:


Added to the existing F position on today's break higher above the range:
This will bring me up to 190 share position- Today's add was @ $16.01 increases my avg share cost to $15.42


Stop-loss is now $15.30 with today's move higher.

[sd]

4-20-2022 Yesterday my energy positions were sold- Commodity funds as well- except for the AG funds.
TSLA reports today, and I'm holding my 2 shares into the earnings report.
Markets seem OK with the Fed rate hikes coming-
NFLX sold off hard on subscriber losses and future guidance -Down over -25% breaking down to $253.00-
Many of the subscriber tv content- DIS, ROKU,CMCSA all well below their 200 ema....and downtrending -looking to break lower?

Markets rallied well yesterday-may add to the Jets position today with Freed cash- I expect that the energy positions will go lower again today if the market can rally higher-
This energy pullback may be an opportunity to add back into Energy/nat gas at a lower cost basis- Also may revisit the nuclear play- CCJ, URA later this week as cash clears...
I think this market continues to wobble- looking for values - and punishing anything that does not deliver- Earnings so important- better beat and guide higher or the position gets sold off lower-

Hard freeze last night had me spending time protecting those plants we recently set out in the garden-Keeping up with that as I can in the Photos thread.

Had a low of 33 degrees last night- will uncover when we get above the mid 40's today. Still have more garden projects to attend to today!

Futures in the Green !
Besides TSLA, I am looking for the solar/Clean energy- ICLN to move higher today...


F ,gbtc,fcg, wmb kmi working in the IB - NUE flat

Have to be cautious in jumping in at the OPEN! - Waiting to see what the 10 am hour shows-




NUE PRINTING A RED 1 HR BAR- RAISED MY STOP TO $168.00- Earnings tomorrow- May take it off


Mammoth gap lower on NFLX- Bought 4 spec shares $227.20 expecting an oversold bounce for a trade-Playing day trader while waiting for it to warm up outside- added 2 shares $218.25- Avg cost now $224.38
Note that Joe Kernan, and Joe Terranova on Fast expected the $241 level to be a support-
Set limit to Buy 5 @ $210.00...should it drop that low- seeing a turn on the PPO on the 2 min...Low print 212.51 so far @ 10:16 am....Just playing-but with real $$$

Sold XOP to lock in gains-Baker Hughes disappoints- lowers guidance.

NFLX @ $223 level- Cancelled the buy @ $210.00- Stop loss in @ $221.00 Price is presently $224.66- Heading outside....



stopped out @ $221.00