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Post by sd on May 12, 2022 6:59:50 GMT -5
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Post by sd on May 13, 2022 6:14:19 GMT -5
5-13-2022
TWTR drops as Musk indicates his take-over deal may be on hold.....
Futures in the green- A Friday bounce perhaps? Will it hold?
Steve Liesman is on CNBC saying that the market may want Powell to bring on a 75 BPT raise, and be more aggressive-
Stablecoins -were in the news this week- losing large and not performing as expected pegged to the dollar....
Cryto/Bitcoin down hard this week.
TSLA dropped below $700 yesterday -680 low , closed $728 -
The $650-$600 level is the next support leg, followed by $450-$400
Not Possible ? Give it time....
The Auto-EV market is getting downgraded as the markets look out to the more restricted future as the consumer tightens his financial belt
defensively on fears about higher inflation and a slowing economy.....
I'll be outside (if the rain holds off) installing a drip irrigation system-
and that pursuit will be followed in the thread in the Photos category
dgoriginal.proboards.com/thread/760/sds-topic-garden-ventures-pursuits
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Post by sd on May 13, 2022 17:19:39 GMT -5
5-13-2022 mARKET RALLIED TODAY TO MAKE A DECENT cLOSE ON WEEKS OF SELLING!
Of course, I think this is likely just a bear market rally- and I'm holding all cash, and not focused on the markets like I used to be-
Sure, I keep CNBC on, but as long as the weather permits, after the open I'm heading out into the yard/garden with plenty of chores and projects to do---
However, I need to do a summary catch up - haven't done that in a few weeks-
Let's start with the Performance of the sectors-
For a pleasant change, the 1 day sector performance is Green across All the sectors!
However , Only consumer /defensive is barely in the green for the week, everything else had a loss on the Week-
Similarly, the 1 Month chart is all RED- with Energy losing the least- and surprise- consumer cyclicals the biggest loser-
Unfortunately, as we step out in the calendar, 3 mos,6 mos,1 year, and YTD- Energy was the only winning sector in this market.
Getting to my relative performance- As a matter of Losing less- and presently all in CASH and not trying to dabble....
The Van accounts- IRA & Roth combined = $45,279.51
The IRA = $23,850.86
The Van Roth = $21,428.65
The IB Roth = $16,876.00
Total $62,155.51
Comparative performance in 2022:
Compared to the start of 2022 $61,721.00 - SO i'M STILL IN THE GREEN BY - Trumpet sounding $434.00
cOMPARED TO THE MARKET INDEXES FROM jAN START-
The Indexes relative performances:FROM THE START OF THE YEAR...
The Indexes relative performances:
DIA- 364.07 - - 322.23 = -41.84 Or- 11.49%
SPY 476.30 - - 401.72 = -74.58 Or- 18.57%
$COMPQ 15,732.50 -11,805.00 = -3927.00 0r- 24.96%
The 3 indexes averaged together = -55.02 /3 = -18.34%
cOMBINED INDEX =
rELATIVE PERFORMANCE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN MY ACCOUNT & THE INDEXED AVERAges = +18%
Something to be said for losing less---
If I had been feeling more adventurous, I potentially could have taken some of those short ETFs for another spin-last week - but i'm just not in a mood to try to ride that volatility swing- and stomach that roller coaster-
Instead, I'm spending my time focusing on other things i can enjoy and not get stressed over...
A bit of Fishing, a bit of gardening, a bit of projects- This retirement stuff - should have tried it out years earlier!
Lolo added back to her F position @ $12.87 this week on F decline- she also has a lower limit to buy more @ $12....Using her profits from Selling part of her position in the $22 level as price peaked and retraced....
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Post by sd on May 19, 2022 6:43:16 GMT -5
on 5-18-Indexes tanked lower-Big % moves!
A good time to be in cash or to be short! I'm in cash and not losing sleep in my personally controlled accounts-
Haven't wanted to look at those that are "Managed" because I'd want to react - and we must be close to the bottom...
Pundits on 5-19 premarket - momentum continues to the downside- and bounces are to be sold into ...
$VIX is 31.94
Doing other things with my time than the markets....
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Post by sd on May 23, 2022 6:52:08 GMT -5
5-23-2022 aFTER ANOTHER LOWER WEEK-Futures again look to see a rally at the Open-
No reason to think we find support here, simply because we are down from the prior highs -20% +/-
With a potential recession as we head into 2023, why would we not expect some of these lower levels to be reached as we decline further?
To the extent that the markets overshot to the upside in 2021, in a reaction to the "recovery " and generous Fed policy of low rates, there is every
expectation that as the economy potentially goes into a recession in 2023 due to inflation, the Fed trying to control inflation with substantially higher rates, the global supply disruption continuing, I would expect the QQQ's to drop below the weekly 200 ema, and hit the 240-220 level....
The DOW:
You have to respect the long term chart, and the perspective that we had an excess upside momentum coming out of Covid- and assume we could potentially see a similar counter reation to the downside if we see the push for higher rates walking us into a slowing GDP and potential recession...
Potential bear market rallies make us feel we are "Missing out" on getting in near the bottom of the correction-assuming one has raised some cash along the way...
This longer weekly view of the SPY suggests that at a minimum, a lower move and retest At the 200 ema would not be a surprise----
and-potentially breaking below- to the 325-290 level
I'm still holding cash in the Van and IB accounts- No FOMO....
Focus today is completing the last primary sections of the irrigation lines-
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Post by sd on May 26, 2022 6:50:26 GMT -5
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Post by sd on May 27, 2022 8:33:55 GMT -5
5-27-2022
It looks like the markets will finally finish this week on an upswing!
Still holding cash, and doing the garden/living vs worrying about the market gyrations-
A lot of stuff went on Sale this year- and may still get cheaper if earnings disappoint!
I periodically update my Off Topic endeavors in the Photos section
dgoriginal.proboards.com/thread/760/sds-topic-garden-ventures-pursuits?page=4
Being able to be outside, and take care of some different projects keeps me active and involved-and not trying to second guess where this market is headed- is likely "healthier" for my outlook overall- So, enjoying one's interests, hobbies, are a good resource to maintain a positive outlook ....
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Post by sd on May 27, 2022 16:58:52 GMT -5
This week, the markets all made a recovery! I'm still in cash in my personal accounts and didn't take any trades -
Monday is Memorial day, so markets will be Closed-
Have we indeed put in a bottom last week, and Buyers are snapping up less expensive values?
Certainly, the PE ratios have declined substantially---
Let's see what the weekend News does, and how stocks behave next week!
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Post by sd on May 30, 2022 15:26:20 GMT -5
Memorial Day- A day to keep our Vets and servicemen in our minds and hearts... Thanks for their sacrifice, we have the Freedom that we have....
and thanks to our law enforcement for doing what seems to be a thankless job in our communities...
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Post by sd on May 30, 2022 15:31:48 GMT -5
Heading out to the Lake for some fishing Tuesday!
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Post by sd on Jun 7, 2022 8:08:35 GMT -5
6-7-2022 Don't have any focus on the Markets these days, or any concerns with my present self allocation - CASH position- Enjoying our summer months-
Could have stayed with the energy positions- since Energy continues to be the market outperformer-
However, wanted to take a step away from having a market focus on a daily basis-
Have to contact our advisers since I'm turning 72 in September and have to start taking out the required RMD's. Thosed accounts are "managed" accounts-and exposed to market swings-
It appears that the withdrawal amount is about 4% of the account Balance on DEC 31 of the prior year that you turn 72...
That would mean that the withdrawal based on 2021 values were near the market/ account Highs- UGH>>> That's going to be a excess withdrawal relative to the accounts if they are down as the market appears to be ready to reprice almost everything lower in terms of valuation.
www.irs.gov/retirement-plans/retirement-plans-faqs-regarding-required-minimum-distributions#:~:text=You%20must%20take%20your%20first%20required%20minimum%20distribution%20for%20the,you%20turn%2070%C2%BD%20in%202019.
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Post by sd on Jun 13, 2022 8:17:12 GMT -5
Just a cryptic Post on CRYPTO this am- Several Crypto exchanges are not allowing bitcoin holders to get out of their positions!
Almost a repeat of the trading fiasco that saw Robinhood freeze up for a while due to a lack of liquidity!
Futures in the Red - waiting on the FED talk this Wed.
Back to the garden- too late to short? I don 't think so.... Qid likely opens up above 26 at the open-
Use limit orders- expect a high gap open- wait- or take just a small partial on the open..
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Post by sd on Jun 16, 2022 18:46:23 GMT -5
The market rally yesterdeay as the FED issued a 75 Basis point rate hike was wiped out today.....Indexes closing at new lows today!
Inflation is still persistent, and the FEd knows that the rate bhikes will cause companies to reduce hiring, and that the future earnings estimates will be lower and likely disappoint- The trade off now is that the Fed restrictive policy will stall growth and make the cost of capitol much higher-
Ultimately, this needs to transate into fewer consumers desiring to make purchases, thus lessening demand- allowing the supplies to meet the reduced demand.
Ultimately, we are heading into a period of lowered estimates, and possibly a "HArd Landing" because the FED has taken so long to icrease rates- thinking that the inflation was simply transitory.....Ultimately, the average citizen blue collar worker will suffer the impact the most- and it could be profound for the next 1-2 years before we potentially see a valuation reset- The market downtrend continues- Rallies are wishful- the reality is a long time further down the road with companies seeing future earnings decline...
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Post by sd on Jun 17, 2022 7:47:31 GMT -5
6-17-2022
Futures in the green after yesterdays hard sell off reaction to the Fed's rate hike and guidance-
Rallies at this point are bear market reaction rallies and we have not yet found a bottom-
I may dabble a small bit today on the long side as a short term day trade-
I think it's likely that we find ourselves in a recession this fall-
The Fed rate hikes will affect the cost of business and borrowing- including mortgage rates-
With the high inflation, and the Home builders dropping hard, and the high rates that mortgage buyers in the past year are paying on overpriced housing-
I'd expect that a reset in the prices of Housing will occur in many areas in the country-
Certainly, as one participant on CNBC that is bearish explained it- Yes we have come down a lot based on the present bullish earnings, the PE ratios for the S&P are no longer excessively high on average- but -we have not priced in what will be future earnings misses and even lower profits as the Fed policy causes the economy to go into a slump to control inflation- For some : We can expect job openings to be fewer, layoffs in some segments as the economy resets lower, foreclosures for those unable to pay the high mortgage prices.
Should the Ukraine war end anytime soon- some of the Ag/energy supply may come back- but would we ever buy Oil or nat Gas from Russia again ? and WHY would we- The Biden policies to shut down fossil fuel production in the US has effectively thrown the energy prices into all time highs because of high demand and lower supply-
The Biden push to get away from fossil fuels and to coerce the transition into "clean electric " is an idealistic policy, not recognizing the essential need for low cost energy sources- Nat gas for sustained energy productionand even nuclear will be needed to meet consumer demand. Wind and solar are not yet capable of supplying the demands an all-electric society would require-
Cramer thinks yesterday was the "capitulation day"- but it was not a real panic day- 3 day weekend ahead-
So, now is not the time to be positioning into spec - no profits tech stocks- but potentially some of the oversold mainstream Fang stocks -- or the QQQ may be worth taking a entry- if one has cash -----Should we rally from here? I think we get a bounce perhaps- but a new harsher reality lies in the months ahead...
As a spec trade - Buying 100 TQQQ @ $22.37 thinking Tech may get an oversold rally today
Bought 20 QQQ in the Van IRA account. Large cap Tech gives exposure to the FANG
11am update- trades turned south in the red!
3:30 pm indexes have again turned net positive- I have positive net gains in TQQQ thanks to the early entry at the open-
I also went long the QQQ's , SPY, DIA in the 1st 30 min,.. those latter positions are slightly lower than where I purchased them, but they are in positive territory above yesterday's low Close. I believe I will take the Risk and hold the index positions long over the weekend- Thats a gamble to be sure, but I'll give it a try- Have about 20% of the combined cash tip toed back in for Swing Trades-
Too easy to get drawn (sucked) back in to taking trades....
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Post by sd on Jun 21, 2022 5:17:40 GMT -5
6-21-2022 Tuesday - Futures bullishly in the green premarket- following a 3 day weekend.
Looks like we may yet get a bit of an oversold bounce continuing into Day 2.
Rallies could be the opportunities to sell off any highly valued specs- and Buy those solid companies that one can hold for the long term.
Easing my toes back in with limit orders for short term trades- and using the recent lows as stops!
Buying with limit orders dividend payers- NOBL, PID
Listening to one market technician -Chris Verrone from Strategas, he doesn't feel we have had enough selling- and wants to see a bottom panic sell-off with high volume, high VIX readings to think that a bottom has been made...He feels the sell-off has still been too orderly, and that our positive price movement starting Friday is simply a bear market rally that has some upside potential before ultimately breaking down- He's targeting $3400 on the S&P.
Energy is up today as Oil prices are higher- Energy- XLE has been being sold off sharply from it's recent highs - below the 50 ema and making a lower Close Friday- adding a few positions with lower limit orders in the IB account-
Premarket pricing is up +3% @ $74.67- I'll try for a volatile price move with a lower limit order $73.60 and an attached stop-loss @ $72.60 limit sell $78.00
We're off to do some fishing this am, as the Lake should have lesser traffic from the weekend, and the weather is a bit cooler- below 90...
Summer solstice day- Up early....
EOD- Good time fishing and got back in time to add some positions-
This is likely simply a relief oversold rally, and a chance to switch out of some of those still unprofitable stocks into some profitable reasonab le PE stocks for the next year- Today I took a position in NOBL- dividend aristocrat ETF- as a potential conservative position -- down -16% from it's prior highs-
So, whAt are the Dividend Aristocrats ?
www.proshares.com/our-etfs/strategic/nobl/
The fund is presently made up of 64 S&P quality companies with decades of paying out dividends-to shareholders -consistently, through markets up and downs.
Paying out dividends consistently through market's ups as well as downs-
With the recent broad stock market decline- the NOBL ETF has held up relatively decently-
Just for curiosity, I wanted to compare the NOBL performance versus the oracle of Omaha- BRKB-
Just for the record , BRKB keeps the dividends it gets from it's holdings.
BRKB- Warren's company- does not share or distribute dividends. Warren is known as the value investor-
let's compare the overall performance of BRKB, NOBL, and holding a position in SPY-
Using a weekly chart - let's look back over 4 years .
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The Biden policies to shut down fossil fuel production in the US has effectively thrown the energy prices into all time highs because of high demand and lower supply-