SD - 2022 - A YEAR TO LOSE LESS AND TO KEEP MORE !

[sd]

6-22-2022 Futures in the RED premarket- Would have expected a bit more tailwing for a rally into day 3-

Ray Dalios pessimistic take on the Fed approach- Stagflation-
www.linkedin.com/pulse/reducing-inflation-come-great-cost-stagflation-ray-dalio/
IB Positions stopping out @ cost/breakeven. The Tech gains evaporated with today's downside volatility. All Cash in the IB at the moment- See what 10 am brings.
losing in the VAN with DBE,XOM,NOBL,QQQ-
Setting stops under the energy positions at today's lows-Thought we'd get a BOUNCE HERE-

[sd]

6-24-22

Looks like we are getting a bounce afterall. Powell spent 2 days before congress-

Apparently the markets believe Powell's message that he will curb inflation . As ElErian pointed out, the FED has been late initiating rate hikes- incorrectly thought inflation was just transitory, and only belagtedly realized it was more significantly sticky and persistent- ElErian thinks the Fed will continue to not time their rate adjustments correctly, will overshoot and push us into a recessionin 2023.

Cramer still thinks we have more downside-as do others- as the analyst projections are way too optimistic for the 3rd and 4th quarter.
The Fed's late tightening of Rates - and likely increase in the cost going forward to curb inflation, will have a negative effect on business, consumer spending, and thus company profits-
Labor markets are strong- but even with the wage hikes recently, many consumer's buying power have not kept up with inflation.

I'll be adding to positions today- SPY, QQQ,NOBL


Bought 20 META in the IB a few minutes into the open- Sold 1/2 to lock in gains, with an order to buy back more @ $165.11...day trade- but plan to hold if filled at the lower limit.

Buying positions in both ROBO, BOTZ- automation ETFs that have both had substantial declines- The inability to find enough workers to fill available jobs, wage increases, all make a company to consider the benefits of replacing employees where possible with machines is certainly a reality.

EOD- Finally, closing out the week with a bit of Green in the accounts.
Considering this to be an oversold bounce higher for the market-- but this is NOT to be construed as the bottom being in- -

[sd]

This week's Rally is seen by many not as a bottom, but simply a BEAR MARKET RALLY- which is assumed will run out of steam in the near future, and stocks will again grind down even lower- below this past week's low-
Most pundits want to see the classic high volume sell-everything panic that is the 'CAPITULATION' point- which signals a bottom is likely in place-
But, this week's bullish price action was enough to prompt me to reenter

[sd]

6-28-22 Bullish open- adding XLF to the positions-
Heading out to the garden to plant a few sweet potatoes!

Markets turned South today- Positions rolling over into negative territory-

[sd]

6-29-22

Markets weak again today, Most of my recent adds are in losing territory- I certainly thought we'd see a bit more of a tradable bounce lasting into this week-
Got that wrong- So, the trade off is to consider that most of my positions are solid ETFs- do I hold them through another deeper -10% decline; where is that market panic sell-off everyone seems to be waiting on- We already know the 3rd and 4th quarter will see earnings coming in lower- are we still grossly overpriced on a PE level?
OIL drops -2% today on recession fears, but that still leaves the energy companies solidly making profits in this environment.
I've still got a 30% +m cash position on last week's reentries- and yes- I know we're heading into a recession likely in the 4th quarter-
In the IB holding META,MSFT,QQQ,SPY,XLF
In the Van HOLDING ROBO<BOTZ<XLE,DBE,QCOM,NOBL (Dividend Aristocrats)- Trying to apply some "logic" - with investments that are substantially off their highs, should have demand in the new environment we are heading for, and- at least I'm in the green in the QQQ's there thanks to an early entry last week.

However, it appears that my reentry on a bullish upturn last week and trying to capture a bounce may have been just a small bull trap hop- We'll see how this week works out- can we grind out a bottom for a brief respite?

[sd]

7-1-15
Woke up early -predawn- and the LOLO and i plan on going fishing - once she awakens LOL!
So, I got a cup of coffee and went through some videos on Youtube-
and i came back upon ALEX-Ticker Symbol YOU.
I've always liked his videos, typically indepth and insightful on tech- particularly ARKK-and his belief in investing for the long term. but haven't spent much time doing so in recent months-
Alex is changing his focus- and will be doing more videos in the future- but from a different slant- Sounds like he's exhausted with the negative performance of ARKK and also the feedback he's been receiving-
This guy is smart, long term forward looking- and his videos are very well done-
He's done some 180 videos in the past year and a half- and he usually does a lot of solid analytical research, but definitely with a bias-
He's also now supported/sponsored by FTX- a crypto platform- and promotes that as a portion of one's investing- obviously with monies one can afford to lose-
So, keep that sponsorship in mind when viewing his video insights for a "bias"- in NFTs, Crypto that are woven into some of his recent videos.

But check out his videos if you haven't done so....

www.youtube.com/watch?v=p-U35x6EQ-U

This video is why he thinks META- Facebook- will not be the metaverse leader...And who he thinks the real competition will be successful-
www.youtube.com/watch?v=laxgLLYJ2zE

OK! look out Crappie! we're heading your way!

EOD- Fishing was good- but all small -couple of decent catfish lots of small Crappie- - threw them all back- but a day fishing is good regardless of the catch!

And, got in after the market Close to see a pleasant surprise with the indexes all closing in the green!

Crypto brokerages crashing-imploding! not allowing customers to make withdrawals- Three Arrows joined the club today- filed for bankruptcy on a margin call- Crypto hedge fund.
Voyager is also in cloudy waters-
Several firms- are trying to step in - to stabilize this potential crash-
FTX buying BlokFi- Sounds like a Fire Sale is starting in Crypto- because it has not turned out to be a Gold substitute or a way to secure "Value" in a dropping market. Sam BankmanFried trying to step in and rescue the crypto market.
Can only consider the position Michael Saylor -CEO of __Micro strategy MSTR ______ adding more Blockchain at $39k on the way down with a 50% drawdown -
His company stock had exceeded $1300 in 2021 and today is down to $166.77. and appears to be downtrending further-

So many lessons are being experienced this past year! similar to the 2000 tech bubble- we are seeing a market reset that is willing to take out all the fluff and just ask- what are your earnings going forward- what is your PE ratio? The markets went up -way too high on too much Hype about the future- and -now, those that drank that speculative believer Kool-aid find themselves disillusioned, and poorer for the experience.
Perhaps this is the time that the market is repricing to a new, lower valuation exceeding anyone's expectations.

[sd]

7-3-2022

THANK YOU VETS -AND 1ST RESPONDERS FOR YOUR SERVICE AND BRAVERY!

We get to Live in this Great Country because of their willingness to fight for- and defend & uphold our American way of Life-

When members of my 'family' last served directly in battle, it was WW2- They survived- Don- my father- lost 1 lung; Paul's ship was torpedoed and sunk and the crew floated for 24 hours - with many lost to sharks before they were eventually rescued- Leo was a tough guy- and a boxer in the Navy- for competitions- and when the war was over, and he returned home- Well, 15 years after the war, I was just 10- and he would still find a reason to have a go around at a local pub now and then. today they would likely identify that behaviour as a form of PTSD.

Such a difference in the mindset of this Country in 2022 towards those that serve- both in the military and in law enforcement-
Now it seems that Law enforcement is on trial across the country-
Because of the actions of a relative few law enforcement officers -errors that were clearly unjust and beyond reasonable force- are now the social hysteria to "Unfund the police-" from the far Left- and they toss All law enforcement into this broad basket-

Well, if you are in law enforcement, or the Military- Thank You for serving in a job that is now under attack on many fronts by the left political agenda-

Please Keep On, keep us safe -including those that would malign you----

[sd]

End of WEEK- 7-8-2022-

Q's and SPY end up closing out this week close to where they closed 2 weeks earlier- and then falling lower last week, and putting in a higher low-
so , perhaps the markets are not that afraind of the Fed's expected 75 bpt raise coming- Perhaps that is already priced in-? Well, sold opff a good portion of the energy position just the day before it rallied- go figure- locked in some losses there-
Haven't been actively following the markets much- but commodities and energy have been in decline for several weeks- although Oil will still be perceived as being in short supply for the months ahead- and high gas prices will prevail....
Perhaps we are closer to a bottom than a bear market rally and a deeper dive in desperation lower.....
Only time will tell..

Heading back over to the photos/garden blog...

[sd]

keep it in perspective- Gary Gordon's thestockbubble.com/da-bears/

[sd]

7-`15-22

Thought I'd take a look at my account values this week- after doing some buy and holding several weeks back....
I've been applying the 'Ostrich with the head in the sand' perspective during this recent period- and focusing on other things less difficult....
Somewhat irresponsible though to simply ignore the continued market decline ....
Energy and commodities have been big decliners this past month- and oil/gas prices are coming down - while grocery costs continue to rise-
We're offsetting some of those higher grocery costs by harvesting from the garden- My area of focus in recent weeks/months-
Today we harvested this 1st canteloupe with a dozen or more coming in the weeks ahead. and some Baby watermelons are getting close!
Subject matter for the garden ventures thread in the Photos area...



Tired of the political back and forth- Biden needs to free up- the US markets for energy- but he's beholden to the Far left ESG component of his party.
Instead, he's traveling to Saudi Arabia to try to influence them to increase the output.

Todays rally attributed to the thinking that the Fed may not be as aggressive on the next rate hike- With inflation still high- why would they slack off?

Taken a bit of a loss over the past weeks- and deservedly so- as I have been holding positions anticipating a rally of sorts- but that's contrary to what many of the market forecasts are anticipating : lowered earnings in the 3rd qtr and expect the Fed to continue to raise-

In the IB account - I have a net loss of -$218 over that period $16,794.00 account balance at today's close.

Biggest loser in that account is a -$10 loss on MSFT- on a 15 share position. net -$150..
Meta position is small,10 shares; up $2
QQQ- 10 shares are down $.40
Spy position is up $3.00
XLF - largest position size 139 shares- is down $.80

Van combined accounts down- $45,535.00
I had a large position in XLE and sold 30 shares for a loss last week- still holding 10 shares -still at a loss-had
I also have losses in Botz and Robo about -$150.00 combined- Thought these would be the answer to the jobs shortages-
Likely I will be correct in that assumption- eventually- just too early of course
Gains in QCOM, QQQ, Nobl of $+750.00 combined-

Had I bothered to "manage" the losing XLE position sooner, -p woulda, coulda, shoulda....

I may have to pull my head out of the sand and get back somewhat involved in the weeks ahead---

[sd]

7-19-2022

Following a lousy Monday, because AAPL said things look uncertain and put a hold on Hiring; YET we get a market rally today across most sectors and indexes!
In the Van accounts up above my recent reentry afew weeks ago by $1k- just above 46 k at today's close-
For 2022 YTD I have a net realized gain (in the 2 van accounts) of approx $1,100.00 plus unrealized net gains at today's Close of +980.00 +/-.
Only 3 decent winning positions in the Van accounts- QCOM, NOBL, QQQ ,
With both Nobl and QQQ representing a 15k position size- Qcom 3k- Both Robo and Botz are net flat on a cost basis -and combined they represent a 4k investment.
Other positions are just single share 1 tracking positions - about 17K still in cash-

In the Ib I'm holding 5 positions- Meta,MSFT,QQQ,SPY,XLF acct value $17,258.

$15 gains in Meta, $6 loss in MSFT; $7 gains in QQQ; $10 gains in SPY; and net $0 in XLF
No free cash left in the IB

So Grasshopper, have we bottomed or is this just a bear rally bounce?

[sd]

7-2022
Sold all positions in the IB Meta, MSFT,QQQ,SPY,XLF- lost a bit on the MSFT - offset by gains in SPY, Meta, QQQ. Flat on the XLF....
Had just bought a few shares of SOFI with the $100 free cash in the account- so just letting that sit-Account position $17,211.00
Sold majority of QQQ in the Van- Had a fairly sizable 7K position with nice gains- Sold 20 , kept 5.

The SNAP big miss and poor guidance took the wind out the markets this week-

[sd]

7-26-2022 Walmart big disappointment-Drops -9% Average Low end Consumers under pressure on the higher costs of inflation and gas.....
More affluent consumers not yet
Home builders seeing a lot less demand and higher cancellation rates-
Higher rates and investor sentiment bearish - the spectre of a soon to be "recession" clearly affecting the market.
Took a few short positions - QID; DOG; SARK-SDS ; UUP long the US dollar, shorts the Euro..... In the IB-- also Went long SRE- Energy company with global exposure.
put stops below the remaining positions in the Van account

IMF drops it's global growth estimates ...and predicts US growth slowing to just 1%; China seeing it's slowest growth -3% since 1976-
So, the global engine that China has provided is slowing sharply-

Taking a shorter term trading focus- with tight stop-losses using the faster 1 hour, 2 hr time frame chart and evaluating the psar on those time frames to adjust tighter stops.

[sd]

7-26-22- pm notes-
My short positions taken today are net flat but profitable.
MSFT fails to meet expectations- down -10 after hours; GOOG reported better metrics -but flat- META reports tomorrow- Snap was a big miss earlier-
Oddly enough Visa earnings beat solidly but is being sold off...but the earnings call guidance is just underway.....I think that is a real warning for the consumer....and credit card companies are an indication of how solid the consumer is- If they are turning to increasing their debt level by using the cards for basics - doesn't seem to bode well if we drop into a recession and jobs become scarce.
FED will speak tomorrow with a 75 bpt hike tomorrow expected, but a lot will hinge on guidance-
We are already seeing slowing growth and increasing unemployment, both the desired outcome of the Fed's policy to tame inflation.
Some believe the Fed will soften it's rate hike policy, but many think the Fed will toe the hard line because inflation is persistent.
75 pts is anticipated- 100 pts would likely see a market sell-off - 50 pts would indicate that the Fed believes it can make a soft landing and the market rallies because the Fed would be signaling that inflation is slowing and coming down - the 2% inflation rate is still the nominal goal of a healthy market-

[sd]

7-27-22
FED @ 2 pm today- futures are up premarket...across the major indexes-
Yield curve is inverted 2 year 3.05 10 yr 2.79%

Both MSFT and GOOG are up premarket despite both printing misses in their earnings yesterday! This seems to indicate positive investor sentiment for those stocks- and perhaps that extends to the Tech/ Growth sector overall....
I will likely take this as a sign that I am positioned incorrectly with my short tech position- and that may extend to the other shorts as well.
I was expecting the markets to hold a hard line on earnings , and that any earnings below expectations would be sold off....
Particularly since these stocks are not trading at low PE multiples.

MSFT PE is 26.28 and it's forward PE is anticipated to be expected to be lower- 23.64 MSFT is down -25% so far this year.
It's EPS this year +39.7% but next year expected EPOS is much lower 15.74%
I don't quite get the higher PE valuation if forward looking growth is expected to slow....



PM update- FED announces the expected .75 bpts raise-
My short positions have stopped out- except DOG-
Loss about -$200 overall on those other positions.
Switching to the long side- adding FCG- nat gas, added to the JOET position, adding URA-Uranium; adding DBE -energy
Adding Nat banks through KRE
Buying back the QQQ's
Buying GNR- Global Nat resources
Buying Semis- SMH

Buying back VEEV- Veeva systems- Cloud based software for the life sciences - appears to be breaking out of that $210 level
All of these are responding positively to the Fed announcement-
Markets seem to be holding their gains following the Fed announcement- Fed says the last inflation report was worse than expected.

After hours- Facebook- Meta disappoints , is seeing selling after hours...