SD - 2022 - A YEAR TO LOSE LESS AND TO KEEP MORE !

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Markets end up higher on the week as this rally continues-
I am glad I didn't stand in the way of the tide and had taken the initial loss on my short positions, and reversed to the long side...
I'm actually almost all-in to the long side with some diverse positions in Energy, Nat gas, an electric utility, dividend etf, and tech, tech,and tech....
The great unknown, and realizing we are indeed formally in a Recession due to lagging GDP growth over 2 quarters- that it is likely this rally will just be a temporary bear market rally- with harder times to be realized ahead by the American consumer with persistent food inflation- increased rental rates, significantly higher gas prices than 2 years ago, and - thanks to the Fed, the abundance of available jobs and shortage of workers will get reduced- as companies will cut their labor force, hiring demand will slow, unemployment will rise- This is all in response to the Fed policy that is fighting to tame the inflation. Price index up +6.8% in June!

With that being said, we likely are not at a longer term bottom, this rally will likely top out soon, and fears about the 3rd quarter will become the next
reason the market pulls back-deeper in the months ahead - Earnings are the catalyst - Those companies that disappoint - find themselves losing 15-25% overnight! ROKU for example-long term down trend- appeared to be making a base @ @ $80.00, and wakes up @ $65 after disappointing on earnings. a loss of -23%! (Not a position)



This is the Risk of holding an individual stock through an earnings report- The report is issued after hours and you find out the next day if your "bet' was a winner or a loser.....

Net profits this week- Van accounts up to $47,196.00 IB $17,326.00 net 64,522.00

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8-3-2022 Futures up after 2 days of selling- I had added to BLNK electric power position -this week as cash cleared in the IB-
Have a larger position in SCHW- set a stop-loss below yesterday's puyllback low-although it had a higher close...

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8-8- -2022- Senate has passed the clean energy proposal- Energy seeing losses, with a bit of a bounce today- Stops set under XLE, DBE-

Ex president Trump- Reportedly Trump tweets that the FBI has raided his Florida home-Estate... Mar- a Lago-....
This becoming a big news item on CNBC/SHEP 7:30 pm--
History in the making .......Unfolding as we watch CNBC....
The searching of an ex President's property is indeed amazing- This potentially presupposes that the DOJ aggressive action is an investigation designed to bring charges against the prior President! Likely for instigating the January insurrection .... but it could also be charges brought on other occurrences-
A Truly amazing escalation of the political process between the democrats and Trump!

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8-11-2022

Big rally yesterday! Looks to potentially continue- at least premarket is green-
2 Energy positions both stopped out on tightened stops- XLE, DBE- although demand is still high-
FCG is still in play- bought more of the ICLN- clean energy with the Biden passage of legislation favoring green energies- will give this a trade----
It seems to be the general belief by CNBC pundits that this is just a bear market rally and is doomed to revert to the downside as we approach September and a new Fed rate hike in the cards-
Excellent jobs report and CPI came in a bit lower- Has the market believing the Fed won't raise 75 Bpts- just 50 and a 'soft' landing is in the cards-
Caught a few pundits this week, and it seems they all are longer term bearish and inclined to be defensive-
While I am still all-in- the $VIX just dropped below 20- very bullish- Let's see if the momentum can stay for stocks to the upside and push the $VIX down below $16!

Ultimately, I'm setting trailing stops....
And Not spending a lot of time watching the markets- Lots to keep up with on the garden- harvesting Figs, dealing with leaf spot on peppers and other plants as well, and managing Kiwis- unraveling them daily- and pinching/air layering to promote laterals-
keeping up with that now and then in the Photos section - Healthy to have other pursuits- or perhaps obsession?

dgoriginal.proboards.com/thread/760/sds-topic-garden-ventures-pursuits?page=6

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8-12-2022 Friday!
Markets in the green midday- Added SOFI and BLK- financials today- Holding 2 sizable SCHW positions with a nice gap higher this week.
Have a bit of cash in the Van that needs to clear- Perhaps Monday- will look to add in the food/AG space...

MaINTAINING AN ALL-IN POSITION-
Nice gains overall this week- and due to getting back in weeks earlier- Van account may hold the Close above 48 K today-
Shifting out of energy positions at a loss this week was my impatience-


EOD-Spent more time on the computer with positions than I intended today, but the Markets all stayed in the green and Closed to the upside!
Van positions are all in the green with a Close above 48.5K - IB positions also all in the Green on the week with a $17,828 Close-
Combined accts $66,349.00 - heading back into positive territory

Holding a mix of different positions- and my intent is to continue to apply trailing stops- It's been an unusual Close so much higher- a lot of short covering
pushing the markets up....Some of the PPI and CPI suggest that inflation is moderating, and perhaps the Fed won't be as bearish in September with a less than 75 pt rate hike - at least that is the Optimism-


Of course, it's important to listen to the opposing voices
thestockbubble.com/wheres-the-beef/

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8-15-22

Markets started off in the Red today- potentially on the news that China is not meeting it's expected GDP growth, and is lowering Rates to try to stimulate the economy- Tough when you keep citizens in their homes with a 0 Covid tolerance...
Markets since turned higher, and will all be closing in the green today-
I'm raising tight -take a greater % of profits- stop-loss on all positions- primarily using the faster time frame charts-
My most profitable position is NOBL- Bought shares June 21,22,23 and held through the July weakness- which almost tested my entry cost- but Mid July -19- Price broke out higher and has been nicely uptrending -pause in the 1st week of August, but breaking out higher last week-
Does pay a dividend - but is Close to the Jan 2022 highs @ 98.00
So, while the Naysayers that define this rally as a bear market rally and elected to keep a larger cash position- missed this run in the market-
I selected NOBL then because it is an ETF of solid dividend growth companies- Seemed to be a good "value" When it was Down from the start of the year -18%-

However, You have to respect the Opinions of savvy Market traders/investors- like Dan Nathan, Jeff Mills, Guy Adami, and Tim ....
All are concerned that at this bounce level, we are again at a higher Price valuation that doesn't respect that we will be seeing a difficult earnings season in the Fall- and a lot of the economic fall-out from the Fed higher rate policies that will still be coming- The bullish jobs report for the recent quarter will be an abberation, and there will be job cuts- Credit card debt is at a new all-time high- as the surplus from all the stimulus has been spent- and households have gone from having a surplus back into increased debt-

A lot of what is occurring as bullish market price action is the market's consensus that the Fed won't hike aggressively in September-and that is a crap shoot guess.....
Thus, I'm willing to try to capture a good part of this market's upside momentum, while expecting the markets to find a reason to falter and retrace- perhaps before we get the Fed's September adjustment.....

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8-17-22 Markets weak- Took a couple of small short positions- SARK, QID- Added to the net profitable LNG position- Energy showing in the green today-

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LNG is kicking Butt and taking names along the way- Nice +3.77% gain - I'm up small on my ARKK short position- and down small on my QID short- while still holding the QQQ's long-AAPL & AMZN sold- SRE trending higher for an electric utility- but Closed on a topping tail - so I'll tighten the stop to $169.25
NOBL is pausing- pulling back closer to the fast ema-but i believe it will continue to perform if the SPY doesn't break trend.

Last fall, I transferred some retirement funds to an Edelman Engines- account that uses low cost ETFs - Unfortunately, the funds were allocated over the last 3 months of 2021- capturing the entries right at the market's highs. The staggered investments of 1/3 each month into each allocation was designed to provide a lower average entry cost- but in light of the markets decline since January, and the S&P's decline of -23% by june 19- It was a poor time to initiate a new account. However, at the time i felt I would benefit to invest some of my ira with a professional firm - and remove my biased TA approach to a lesser amount- evading some personal responsibility for the results - Eh Mate??? I also have a small account with another firm that also charges a 1.70 % fee - I should have asked some more pointed questions at the initial interview- but i heard the words "actively rebalanced" periodically and thought that this Nobel Prize winning investment model would be the perfect fit for a portion of my total basket of retirement monies-
However, Understanding one's risk tolerance when one sees a 20% decline in 6 months of 2022- really puts the emotional aspect of one's reaction to Risk front and Center! It is one thing to discuss Risk when the market is nicely up and trending- It is another thing altogether to see the decline in what was 3 years of work/IRA investment suddenly evaporate! At least on paper-
With a look at the performance of the funds compared to the SPY, and the fact that SPY has recovered from it's June lows- The portfolio recovery is sub compared to the Spy's recovery.
When I sent the local rep (who I find very credible) an e-mail expressing my concerns and requesting a personal meeting (this coming Monday),
he responded quickly- "We have a rebalancing policy that we do not deviate from:-Rebalance ONLY when your asset allocation moves 6% in any direction."

Looking forward to the meeting next week!

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Doubled SARK, QID short positions- Added Nat Gas back - FCG, CTRA, LNG holding a position-
A number of positions sold on tightened stops- OUt of Tech.- JOET still a position.
With this Friday a lower Close for the indexes- With the Q's and SPY seeing losses for the week, and the DIA closing this Friday with a slight gain on the week, but the week's trend is lower after closing higher Tuesday.
Ended the week doing more trading than expected, and 37k in cash-
Account Values At the Close- Van $47,653.00 IB $17,827 = $65,480 after a number of positions declined and hit the raised stops- So, presently 57% in cash after being all-in at the beginning of the week.

I'm down $869.00 from last week's long position Close 8-12 of $66,349 - but that's a relatively small decline of just -1.3% .While the markets lost a similar decline- Q's more- The distinction is that in the process, I've locked in some gains- and increased the cash position- reducing the Risk exposure if the market declines further next week-
Conversely, If the market rallies higher, I'm positioned to take larger losses on several short positions. But I will also have cash available to try to find what's trending- Presently, I think that the Energy sector weakness may present a good opportunity- particularly in the Nat gas space-

Russia is reducing Nat Gas to Europe in retaliation - and winter- and energy demands- require Nat Gas....Us has plenty- but it's a matter of transporting .....

One of the "issues" I had illustrated with my Edelman Rep is why the account did not shift / or alter it's allocations until May 23. And only then in a minor amount of 4%
\

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Markets in the RED today- Vanguard positions all stopped out - incl NOBL except for a small LNG position-
NOBL even had a gap down open- It had been my most profitable position in the past weeks-With positions pulling back from the trend- stops are executing well off the highs-
I will revisit NOBL and retake a position - ideally lower-----

Quick gains on the short positions taken QID,8-17, doubled 8-19 SARK taken last Friday . I will sell 1/2 of the QID position today by trailing a stop on the 5 min chart- lock in those gains- Hold the remaining shares with an eye to sell tomorrow- also with a tight stop. aS WE ENTER THE FINAL HOUR, The QID is still uptrending- I sold 50 $20.31- net +7% gain, and set a $19.90 stop on the remainder-


I also sold 20 shares of SARK- which shorts the ARKK fund.
locked in an 11.42% gain on that portion- While today's move down in the markets was volatile, potentially we see a contued move lower Tuesday?







LNG, FCG, CTRA Nat gas positions in the IB all gaining today-
Will consider adding to the energy position- and potentially more nat gas plays- as an area of strength-
SEE on the 12:00 hour- the 4 traders are all about continuing to have positions for the future in energy- particularly Nat gas-
Short positions QID and SARK benefitting today-

Met with my Edelman Rep today- As he pointed out on a chart that shows historical annual volatility versus returns, that resonated with me-
I also do not plan to take out more than the required RMDs ....
Although I had seen a -20% downside in those accounts. - and was not comfortable with that and what was a lack of portfolio rebalancing ,
that turns out that the criteria for rebalancing is the differential of a 6% swing in value of the stock and the bond components -
Bonds are tanking- along with the market- Both walking hand in hand lower- very highly correlated....
My near term assessment is that I unfortunately started the Portfolio with Edelman right at the market peak in unusual upside momentum- and that we are overdue
to correct further- One statistic that I heard last week from a CNBC contributor- is that the markets - once they have had a -20% + correction, and then rallied back more than +50% of the "loss",
has never turned and gone back below that 1st sub-20% low- reportedly since 1950- so , if that's hopefully an accurate statistic (and the market does not make an exception this year- ) it
may be simply the best approach to ride out the volatility-and set aside the Fear of a major recession as we go into slower earnings, Lower GDP - I will attempt to do so with the investment accounts managed by the pros....

Energy- is again a leading market segment today, as the majority of the market sectors are in the RED- and likely we are ready to see a correction from this recent bear market rally -
I'm adding more Nat gas positions-in the IB - VNOM,

Will set some Buy-Stops in the Van account to take some new positions-
It feels like this sharp a pullback today may not jump back immediately higher tomorrow- Ideally, I will be able to get back into NOBL and JOET at a discount from my stops being exercised-
Going into the Close, I bought some starting position in EOG, EQT, ET -
The Vanguard accounts essentially went all cash between Friday and today except for an LNG position-
Stops were hit - with a drop of almost 2% from last week- as positions opened lower, stops hit....
My YTD account performance in the 2 Van Accounts is +8.94% - Started Dec 31 with $43,742.00- Closed today $47,488.00 - net gain + $3,746 = + 8.7%

The IB account started the year at $18,078.00 - and took a beating earlier during the year- Account value there is presently in the red -1.49% $ $17,809.00
or a loss of $-269.00 YTD. Almost back to BreaK EVEN- I am presently going back to a faster time frame, tighter stop-loss approach- more of a tactical - hit and run - not reliant on longer trends - but trying to isolate shorter term momentum moves- swing trades- similar to several years ago, over 500 EOD trades in IB- (and I was working full time)- yet applied a very tight stop- doubled the IB account that year- despite only having a 45% win rate- but a trending market and wins were 4x avg larger than the many smaller losses- I need to replicate that same process ...but the trend this year is likely to be choppy and - as whap happened with that gain that year,Maybe I became complacent- perhapseven a bit arrogant- and the market became the teacher of how trading with arrogance and your bias can be just as easily a sure way to give back what comes easy when the tenor of the market changes-

nOTING THE COMBINED ACCOUNT STARTING VALUES FOR 2022: $18,078 + $43,742 = $61,820.00
tHE aLL COMBINED ACCOUNT PERFORMANCE -IB + 2 vAN ACCOUNTS- $47,488 + 17,809 = $65, 297. cOMBINED PERFORMANCE = +3,477.00 OR A COMBINED ytd +5.6%

mONTHS AGO, before i lost market interest for a time- , I used to do a weekly comparisom of my performance versus the combined market indexes-
The Spy + Dow (DIA) + Nasdaq (QQQ)-
So- let's get that back on the table- to "compare" active management versus passive Index holding of the 3 indexes- -

Wasn't there a relevant play here? "Mid summer's night Dream?" Down the rabbit hole we go again- But i'm going to maintain a "balance" between the market, Mole hunting, Fighting spot leaf fungi in the garden, and propogating all those figs and kiwis!

Copy and pasting the 1st week's index performances:1 week index performance : DIA start 364.34 ; SPY 476.30 -; QQQ $399.05

So- where are the indexes YTD?

SPY Closed-$476.30 - $413.35 = -$62.95/476.30 = -13.2% decline ; DIA- 364.34 -330.76 = 33.58/364.34 = -9.21% ; QQQ -$399.05 -314.36 -$84.69/399.05 = -21.2%

cOMBINING THE 3 INDEXES TO GET AN AVERAGE : 13.2 + 9.21 + 21.2 % = -$43.61/3 = A -14.5% COMBINED INDEX AVERAGED DECLINE-

wHAT IS MY RELATIVE PERFORMANCE TODAY ? iF THE INDEXES ARE DOWN -14.5% , AND I HAVE A NET AVERAGE GAIN OF +5.6% = A +20.1% AVERAGE OUTPERFORMANCE-COMPARED TO THE COMBINED INDEX AVERAGE

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8-23-22
Premarket futures are slightly in the green, but there's plenty of time until the open-
MY 2 bearish short positions- QID and SARK will potentially see a gap down on a positive market open-
Markets reportedly in some Risk-off mode because of the upcoming Fed meet in Jackson Hole this week- Friday?
I took partial profits yesterday- Minervini style- and I have tight stops under both remaining positions- That will likely get gapped well below on a green open-
I think this process of taking off part of the position and locking in a quick gain works-defensively - Particularly as in the Van accounts- positions I try to hold for a longer period-such as NOBL - break the fast emaand a gap lower- profits- on paper- cut substantially when that rollover occurs-
I've got to get back into trading mode- but only allocate a few hours/day -
As I stepped away from the market for a while, , and then tip toe back in, and then out again (cash) - I need to keep it in proper perspective-and use due diligence- for all positions I may hold-
I've been slack in keeping an active ongoing chart list for trades made this month-
As some trader pointed out- If you fail to take the time to measure your results, you are not being accountable to yourself.
"If you fail to Plan, then you should Plan to Fail"


The SARK 5 minute chart posted in yesterday's thread: Still holding active 25 shares-QID partial position is similar The partial Sell yesterday going into the market Close locked in a decent +11% gain- in SARK, and a 7% gain in QID- Those realized gains will offset the potential for the positions to sell-off on a lower open today- And that's OK- Intentionally , the trades were taken as short term tactical trades-


In the Vanguard account, Thursday, Friday, and Monday; stopped out almost all of my positions except for LNG-
I had tightened stops to try to retain some gains and reduce any losses thinking the recent uptrend is wobblying.
As we went into the close yesterday, I added some starting positions in the Van accounts in the Nat Gas arena- also AG-DBA Charts look OK- but I'll try to give these new positions room for some volatility- and not apply a fast chart to them- Perhaps the 2 Hour... Many of the traders on CNBC I follow suggest- that Nat Gas- as opposed to OIL- has some significant upside going into the fall-
So- candidates they mentioned to consider : LNG (been trending for 2 weeks), CTRA,DVN,MRO, EOG,EQT,ET,VNOM,KMI, - and Adami like VLO refiner-
Now, the Nat gas story in the US is we have plenty of supply that's presently somewhat highly priced- while Europe is under the supply Threat of a cut off of Nat gas from Russia affecting the Geo-political European regions.
PANW beat on earnings and gave positive guidance- not a position...
I added a position in VNOM on a positive high volume move yesterday- Filled 75 $31.03 in the late afternoon -
Solid looking at the time, Elder Impulse green bar- Closed strong & above it's recent sideways consolidation
Technical breakout higher-

conversely- LNG has been trending for a month with just 1 basing period early in August-
It looks ready to stall here and potentially base again/pullback a bit-
The Monday Close was bearish, below the Open-
I will likely get stopped out today if this pulls back further-
It was a very recent entry last week-and I knew it was already extended-$162.56
However, if there is a momentum market move into the Nat Gas- the PSAR $170.33 buy would be worth watching.


8-23 market open - LNG add to the position using a Buy-stop above the open high-

QID hits stop $20.19; SARK position still not stopped out- presently moving a bit higher- price @ $55.80- stop was set @ $55.00-
Market is typically clueless until 10 am-
Seeing nice gains in VNOM- Up $2 above yesterdays cost. Nat gas positions gaining momentum. Gap higher open FCG,CTRA,DBA,
Doubling all positions +
SARK $55.00 stop executes $54.98

Put the entire Van IRA pending cash into the market this am in addition to what was started yesterday-
Risk is relatively high- because until the cash clears & settles, I cannot put a stop-loss under a position bought with uncleared cash.

Also, Using funds in the Van Roth - held back on $4k -
Nice boost to the total portfolio today - we'll see how well this momentum holds up- Do an accounts summary at the EOD.
Still have $6500 in the IB I'm not permitted to access yet-
UNG is nat gas-and relatively flat-
Market movers mid day Energy-XLE up +4% , materials + .74%, Crude oil + 2.69%
$VIX 23.88 rising. MKT THINKS FED IS NOT LIKELY TO GO EASY ON THE NEXT RATE HIKE - WITH JUST A 50 PT RAISE-
tHE MOMENTUM gap down Monday Closed below the 200 ema- something market technicians pay attention to ....


EOD- LNG strength today was a surprise- made a +3.5% upmove from yesterday's low Close....
The Buy-stop captured an early entry after the initial 1st 5 min bar closed lower- Strong intraday move and a final Close near the Day's highs-
Buy-stop order filled $167.82 @ $9:35 am -


EOD- well, most of the trades completed in the green, yet had pulled back some-EQT went back into the RED- The flurry of trades in the Van account saw a account rise only to see it evaporate later in the day to $-100 value below yesterday's Close- Conversely, the IB closed $18,277 negating the YTD loss....
The initial surge in the Nat gas positions tempered during the later day -but I think everything I hear suggests that both OIl and Nat Gas are positions to hold as we go into the fall and winter months- I also see the materials, Ag, fertilizers are all trying to get higher-
So- Was yesterdays sharp market drop warranted? Indexes closed flat to slightly down today-
Holding pattern until the Fed delivers Friday?

What's active today in the Nasdaq using the Nasdaq, Psar, and SCTR score above 80

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8-24-2022
Just a few minutes before the open- Futures flat-
cash has settled out on most trades- Holding 10k in cash-
Want to diversify with that portion out of energy-
Will see how things are heading @ 10 am - giving the market orders time to settle out, find a direction- No stops on the energy positions yet.

ETF Scan new high list - sorted by a higher SCTR rating shows where the market has been favoring recently


NYSE New psar + Elder scan - contains lots of Energy- oil/gas related companies


Using the PSAR scan - taking a position in URA this am. 100 $21.81 very close to the recent highs-
I'm also buying CLH- Clean harbors - tried to break out to a new high this am- been basing sideways for a week after a month's uptrend .
it has held up, while the IFRA index has pulled back in the past few days...
16 @ $118.61 on a bullish move higher- new Psar- In a sideways consolidation, with a daily psar stop @ $114.21 - the prior low in this consolidation.
So, this is an early entry on an attempt to clear the recent base highs- i WILL SET A STOP JUST BELOW PSAR $114.00. Knowing that psar signals in a sideways range can be prone to false whipsaws.
That noted- there is a fundamental theme to think that this can go higher - and it has held steady in this recent consolidation compared to it's larger infrastructure segment ETF -IFRA
Risk on this entry 4/118.61 is a relatively narrow -3.37%



Compare the better relative strength of CLH versus the drop in IFRA ....


A 30 DAY PERFORMANCE COMPARISON:



tOSSING IN A BIOTECH PURCHASE- SRPT

bREAKING OUT TODAY AFTER A MONTH + UPTREND AND A 2 WEEK BASING PERIOD-
bUYING IN THE IB Account- 17 @ $114.80
sO, THIS DIVERSIFIES- Higher risk segment - biotech group- wider stop required-
The biotech industry -XBI is also showing upside today

Psar as a stop is just below the lows of the recent 2 week consolidation- RISK = $8/114.81 = -6.9%
Risk- position size - as a % of the IB account's value = 1954/18307 = 10.67%


Comparing SRPT recent performance to the XBI & IBB :
I want to find the momentum leaders within a group ideally-
I could POTENTIALLY drill down with another industry group specific scan ...
cOMPARING relative performance over the past 50 days- -
The green line shows the comparative leadership of SRPT


cRACKER BARREL IS ALSO BREAKING OUT HERE- CBRL -worth a mention - but I don't have the free cash to diversify into this-
Forward PE 16.35 - dependant on a consumer to continue to go out to dine....
Solidly uptrending since JULY- and that uprend has captured a nice + $30.00 from the lows- 2022 high $135.00-
A wide stop would be $105.00 -below the recent swing low 8-22 - or a tighter stop below today's pullback low $107.00




Range breakouts - within a larger uptrend - potentially are "safer" -because there was an established uptrend prior- and the stock or ETF may have just been basing relatively sideways as a consolidation of the trend- between buyers and sellers determing the correct pricing/value-
A push out of that consolidation in terms of a breakout may be an indication that the suppy of sellers is exhausted within gthe consolidation, and that buyers are willing to pay a higher price to own the shares- Since a lot of market trading is Algo's- machine programs- and not human trading- one has to be cognizant that the upmove can fall back into the prior range - Also a big breakout move will also often come back and "test" the upper portion of the prior base to see if there are other buyers willing to step in ....and some profits were taken by those that got in early on the initial breakout- or within the range- and capturing a nice quick gain.
Trading With the trend direction improves the likelihood of a successful trade-

I repurchased shares of NOBL today- Dividend Aristocrat ETF-
i held this for several months after initiating it as a "value" position on a early bounce in July -
I tightened the stop on this on price weakness last week. It gapped open well below my stop-loss.
Today I used the remainder of freed cash to repurchase a partial starting position -I thought it would drop much further - but it has a bit of consolidation here-- and potential attempt to base-

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During our recent meeting with our Edelman Financial Engines rep, part of the discussion included this slide of 40 years of market volatility compared to the actual market performance-
The red dots note the range of the volatiliuty swings- Yes, this chart only goes through 2020- but it puts the prior 40 years into perspective-
So, While I recognize that I am Risk Adverse- and prone to reacting defensively in my own personally managed accounts, that is likely not the best way to manage a longer term portfolio- Although i did bypass the drop in 2008- went to cash in fall 2007- but i stayed in cash for a few years thinking the 2009 recovery would again fail....
This chart resonated with me that -for an investment portion of one's portfolio- that the intra year volatility is typically more noise than fact- 2002, 2008 being the most extreme in 1 year swings, and the market declines also ending widely lower. However, notice that - other than the period of 200-2003 with 3 consecutive negative years, over the longer term, most negative years were followed with positive years.



As noted previously, Our timing in investing with Edelman was less than ideal- averaging in over a period of 3 months that turned out to be a topping market- and, the resulting swing in account value bears the brunt of that buying right near a market top- However, I will 'grin and bear it' - expecting that I will be back to breakeven in a year-or 2 -ideally.
The Edelman rebalance was based on the relationship of volatility swings between stock positions and the Bond positions held in the portfolio- and not based on volatility in the account value in the individual positions-as I thought would be the case- Since Bonds are also currently highly correlated with the direction of the market, it made for only minor reallocations in 2 periods- Will the Bond/stock relationship unhinge going forward? Likely this will eventually return to the normal ratios- in the years ahead-

A portfolio with a rebalncing mechanism- and based on solid backtesting- should eventually perform in my favor given adequate time and further market changes- hopefully for the better, although I'm a skeptic about 2023.... Markets climb a wall of worry is the adage.

Here's an example of my Buying into an investment portfolio at the Top- At the high range of an extended bull run - near the peak of upside momentum-

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EOD summary-
Too much of the day spent focusing on stocks-
Van $48,091 IB $18,411.00 = $66,502 Closing value on 8-24- Starting value was $61,820 -gain $4,682 or +7.57% YTD gain- SPY, Dow, QQQ's up slightly.dia

That equates to a recent account high- for 2022- at least on paper- It's all only a paper gain until you actually sell-and lock in a gain or a loss.
Fun to think that this portfolio held presently will continue to see some gains that will offset the inevitable losers. Potentially, once I adjust stops- a -3% account loss is likely with a Close stop execution- or a drop of $2k - $2.5K One step forward, 2 steps back.
I'd like to allow some wider stops- but I expect market volatility will come out of Jackson Hole this week.
Will review the charts, consider stops ....
Best % gainer - URA +11.51 gain on the day .
Of 23 positions added in the 2 days, SOME DUPLICATION- 18 actual individual stocks/etfs. only 2 positions closed modestly lower than yesterday's Close.- SRPT, GNR.
After hours- SNOW beats, NVDA disappoints and Misses.- NVDA had warned 2 weeks ago about a slowdown in gaming- preliminary - report is ongoing...
NVDA has a high PE for 2 qtrs of misses- with a PE of 46; and price to Sales @ 15x....
CRM- sales force weak forward guidance...
Fed meeting to start tomorrow- market has been holding it's breath-

Having listed my combined holdings in a new August 2022 chartlist, using the Summary page as a quick reference as gthe markets open gives a quick tell on how the individual holdings are performing that day- Most of my holdings presently arew in the oil/gas/energy complex- This is a big % weighting within one segment/industry group - but the goal of these accounts is not to be widely diversified as in a portfolio, but to be making more focused trades with upside momentum Aside from the Energy holdings- CLH is environmental esg.GNR and DBA- AG; and NOBL- Broad dividend-large cap. Presently a very large % in the Energy sector-
This screenshot shows the EOD performance-compared to yesterday- GNR slightly in the Red- the 17 others in the Green with URA the best daily performer-

The 1 week performance is mostly green- although I only entered most of these positions this week.:

Interesting that these 1 week returns would have given a +14% gain...

And just out of curiosity- if this had been a portfolio held since the start of 2022: and was not traded-


Just 2 small red % losers- URA, NOBL with minor losses- The 16 other positions would be net profitable -
Adding those YTD returns up 628/18 = a return of 34.88 YTD !


Certainly this was not without a lot of volatility! But - how will this perform going forward?

Should I put a pause on stops? Look at this portfolio this coming Dec 31? Go back to doing other things?
Is Energy the place to be overweighted???

If the Fed " talking points" allow Markets to rally, Energy will be sold into the Enthusiasm to jump into other oversold stocks....

[sd]

8-25-2022

Futures in the Green Pre market-
TSLA 3:1 split- goes into effect today- LOLO holds a couple of shares - Will TSLA see a bounce as traders can afford to purchase "more" shares -or start a small position at these lowered prices? Such prior splits saw the stock go higher- but perhaps that will not be the case this time?

Errands done early, premarket-
The Van account is 100% long- Risk on trades.
The IB has a bit of cash $2.4k just cleared . That is the last of the uncleared cash available-
Will look at the new Psar buy scans for a potential Entry today - Outside of the energy sector-

Buy-stop TECK $36.00 limit $36.25
Filled $36.15 at the open- Lot of green on the S&P board!
TECK is a materials =-metals/mining canadian co.
Broke out Tuesday from a basing consolidation last week- had a pullback yesterday.
Used the BUY-STOP as my type of order to ensure that the price would only fill on a higher momentum up move-.





$4th qtr earnings growth projected to be declining - This anticipated decline has not stalled the market's desire to rally in the face of the Fed conference-that starts today- I'm certain the pundits on CNBC will dissect every word on any participant's lips to try to get a take on where the Fed is heading- I'm still thinking the Fed will show a more Hawkish 75 Bps versus a reduced 50 to show it has a firm grasp on seeing inflation continue to slow down- With the strong market- and strong employment- such a move will give the Fed credibility that they have the resolve to do what is necessary to bring inflation down- albeit slowly- trying to guide to that "soft landing"

I expected that the more defensive Energy positions would see some market selling today as the tech & other indexes are seeing buying-
A quick glance at the Summary page quickly shows me that 2 positions ; EQT, SRPT; are in the Red compared to yesterday's Close. and a 3rd red just appeared -DBA
Of course, the 10 am hour is usually about the time the market direction truly starts to form...and so it's a net positive sign for the moment-
TECK is the large green bar-


EOD- I didn't set any stops- The major indexes closed higher and we had to focus on other things-didn't watch the markets this afternoon...
After the Close- I had 7 positions that Closed in the Red on the Summary page- which means they Closed below yesterdays Close- 11 positions made higher Closes-
It's a good tool to capture an overview.



So, what was the toll on the Accounts?
Lots of Red in the IB - $18,372- versus yesterday's $18,411.00 Total= $66,502.00
Van accounts $48,174.00 versus yesterday's $48,091.00 Total= $66,546.00 for a minimal net gain overall....

Will see if the markets can hold today's bullishness with the Fed finally releasing more information tomorrow.

One chore I haven't done with these positions is to take note of whether they have reported for this qtr- or when that will be-
It's a real crapshoot when one holds stocks through earnings- A miss and you're down -20% overnight!

Also, I have to consider the application of setting stops-
Ideally stops will reduce the position and capture some profits-
With a series of new entries, a lot is riding on those entries evolving into profitable territory with a wide enough margin that stops can be set designed to capture a gain.
jumping into the market this week in the Energy sector just ahead of a Fed meeting may be taking on a lot of RISK-heavily overweighting that sector.
Gary Gordon- The Stock Market Bubble- still negative- it is worth considering to give a listen to the rationale of those that believe we are still on the wrong side of a healthy market....
WWW.TheStockBubble.com - August 25, 2022

The Business cycle- by Ray Dalio- been on Youtube for a while- seems particularly relevant in these times....
As he illustrates it, it is not just a 6 month phenomenom. Worth a watch - and consider how today's markets are evolving in this later market cycle- not quite at a bottom-
www.youtube.com/watch?v=PHe0bXAIuk0&t=13s

Market Watch - on the Fed Policy :https://www.markethingych.com/story/financial-markets-are-bracing-for-what-could-be-a-very-hawkish-jackson-hole-speech-by-feds-powell-11661359445?mod=home-page