SD - 2022 - A YEAR TO LOSE LESS AND TO KEEP MORE !

[sd]

8-26-2022
Premarket Futures slightly in the RED with a few hours to go to the open.

David Keller- Discussing managing Risk with stops

He discusses a broad overview on various methods of using stops in your trading-
the methods he lists- A % stop -O'Neil's approach -8%; A time stop-De Mark's bar count; a moving average stop; Parabolis Psar, Chandelier Exit-and stair stepping a stop-loss under the swing lows in an uptrend-

The point is that setting stops will potentially limit your Risk should the trade/investment move against your assumptions.

www.youtube.com/watch?v=CfU61bkeKlk
David Keller has a youtube channel- Market misbehavior, and also delivers content for stockcharts tv on youtube at the end of the day-

Good overview of the technicals at work that day.-Every pm he posts on "The Final Bar"- With Friday doing the larger week's recap.
Worth watching his assessment for the technical perspective.
The 8-25 2022 with Tony Dyer- good views of the market extremes we've seen-potential for a recession?
www.youtube.com/watch?v=7QmHSdtaf10

I also follow Carter Worth- and the market take from Sosnoff, Adami, Nathan..
Agami and Nathatan- also contributers on CNBC fast money @ 5 pm weekdays-
have there own weekly podcast listed as Riskreversal Media- Wednesdays....
www.youtube.com/watch?v=DWDxDkiUSu8

Tom Sosnoff's Tasty Trade is a site I will spend much more time on in the future-
Options & market perspective-
www.tastytrade.com/

Today is Important- Market interpreting the FED's Hawkish or Bearish???

Will the energy trade hold up here?
Powell to speak @ 10 am!

China signs an agreement with SEC for chinese stocks! Go KWEB_ (no cash available)



POWELL: Further large high rate increases quite likely- Don't expect any quick easing - Demand needs to be moderated-
Labor market clearly out of balance;
A long term restrictive policy- forceful steps to be taken to moderate demand-
Take-away- is Hawkish- Fed knows this will bring "pain" that is necessary to curb inflation.
75 bpts likely ...in September.

Expectation that the new higher Fed funds rate- market thinks 3.5%

Initial market reaction is slightly to the downside. indexes off moderately just under .5% in the Red-
There will be a lot of reassessment done today-
I'm seeing more green in the energy positions as the morning goes on.


I will add the 3 indexes into my chartlist as a visual reference....



@ 12:00, the indexes are lower as are my positions turning from green into the RED-
Presently the SPY is -2.15, the QQQ's -2.79-


Here at midday- All sectors negative- (No where to hide?)


OK, after the CLOSE- With the Indexes all down sharply from 3%- 3.94 for the Nasdaq.

Compare todays perf chart with the 12:o'clock chart posted above



My EOD portfolio holdings-Almost all red except DBA, EQT.



Get to the End Of Week Summary

IB- $18,113.00
VAN $47,792.00
Tot-$65,905.00

SD's 2022 start:$18,078 + $43,742 = $61,820.00 This week $65,905 = + $4,085 ... Net % YTD gain = +6.6%

Comparing to the 3 index averages-
Copy and pasting the 1st week's index performances:1 week index performance : DIA start 364.34 ; SPY 476.30 -; QQQ $399.05
DIA 364.34 - 322.93 = -41.41 = - 11.36%
SPY 476.30 - 405.31 = - 70.99 = - 14.90%
QQQ 399.05 - 307.44 = - 91.61 = - 22.96%

cOMBINED YTD LOSSES - 49.22 % DIVIDED BY 3 - AVERAGE= -16.40

COMPARING THE RELATIVE YTD PERFORMANCE OF THE INDEXES TO MY ACCOUNT +6.6 ytd + (-16.40) = A +23% RELATIVE DIFFERENCE-

wHILE TODAYS SELL-OFF WAS DRAMATIC- PARTICULARLY FOLLOWING THE MARKETS RALLY YESTERDAY- CONSIDER THE 2 WEEK TREND DIRECTION HAS BEEN TO THE DOWNSIDE FOR THE INDEXES.



iF WE GO BACK TO THE JUNE LOWS :



THE YTD PERFORMANCE: The Question Everyone should be Asking- This is the 4th attempt to rally in the 2022 downtrend- with a substantial attempt to move higher since the June lows. Each prior rally off a low has been followed with a lower low. Will we see a decline lower than the June Lows???



So, the FED gave a very explicit Hawkish outlook- including that he knew the policies in the future would cause 'PAIN" for the consumer- and investor.

The bond market did not react much- It has already had this priced in and the bond market may be the more savvy market- The 2 year & 10 year remain inverted- so that's a sign of a coming recession in the next 18 months- something the inversion has called 12 times in the past 6 recessions. (lol- just does not always happen)

What will we see going forward?
A stock market less inclined to rally higher-
Continued corrections in the stock market to get to more realistic expectations. (Lower PE's as one example)
High priced valuations- TECH- based on assumed forward earnings- are particularly at Risk-
If a company does not have Earnings- is just based on potential projected ?Sales- look out below.
Semis- like NVDIA are particularly overpriced-

With higher rates- the Housing real-estate market will see slowing sales- prices will come down, as fewer buyers don't chase FOMO higher prices-
A realestate correction will find recent buyers underwater in their home purchases-
Higher rates will affect Auto sales- already held back due to supply and chip shortages, as we enter a tighter job and higher credit market, consumers will hunker down and postpone major purchases.
With higher rates, the credit card companies will see increased profits- and delinquint payments as consumers have over extended accounts. .
Jobs will slow, fewer jobs will be available as companies pull back on their expectations for higher growth-
Fewer jobs will cut back on wage inflation- Ul;timately- big business will again get to dominate the labor market-
Recent union actions -like Starbucks employees have attempted- will lose participation.


With the overall expectations of a lower GDP growth, slowing in consumer spending, and higher inflation costs , and reduction in job demands as employers reduce their hiring demands as the economy slows- Not a bad time to "hunker down" and raise some cash.

I'll review my own positions and plan to apply stops as we go forward- Could have done that today- but had garden chores to attend to-

[sd]

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8-29-2022 Premarket Futures all in the RED....
While most of my Energy positions "lost less than the indexes in Friday's sell-off- seeing them pullback- many below my cost basis .....
I think the Energy sector will indeed continue to be a market outperformer over the months ahead-
A rebuttal to that type of thinking would suggest that as we dip into a deeper recession and a slowing economy, "Energy" will be in lesser demand as business and consumers tighten their purse strings. Energy's strength over the recent past is due to an expanding work force at higher wages, business demand picking up, return to travel.

As yet, I have not set hard stops -believing that the extreme volatility seen Friday may have been an overdone reaction by the markets to a Fed Hawkish policy. Potentially I may initially set stops for 50% of each position- with a tighter stop-loss approach in the IB account- and a bit looser in the Van- Potentially using 2 different PSAR values- would be that tighter stop level and the wider stop-.

Initial market open was to the downside- lots of Red- but perhaps not a big sell off- just volatile moves-
URA position dropped hard Friday, back to the fast 7 ema, and is surging higher this am- I had enough free cash to add 25 shares for a position size of 125 shares. -Avg cost now is $22.02



Screenshot of the positions @ 9:45 am- indexes down only slightly less than -1% with QQQ- Tech down the least!
I'll take further screenshots later of the position summary page to get a handle on the volatility-



Finviz Group performers @ 10 am



@ 10:03- Energy is gaining a bit - Note on Europe is talking about reactivating some nuclear plants mothballed in recent years.
There is also talk about Next Gen nuclear - Bill Gates ...as a source of cheap inexpensive power.



Heading out to the garden-
the screenshot @ 10:10- Bigger greens, and a bit smaller Red bars overall- Perhaps the market will come to the conclusion that All is not dire?
Was reading Ric Edelman's book this weekend- -Rescue Your Money - good guide to staying the investment course through markets ups and downs- Not necessarily holding individual companies though-


mid day look @ 12:00

Positions overall in the green- Energy continues to be a good performer today.

Account balances presently a net gain from the friday Close...while the indexes are all modestly in the red.
At least there is not a continuation of the hard selling seen Friday-
Note that ALL the big cap Tech names are all in the Red slightly- The Nasdaq 100 -.87% mid day



From a technical view- THE 3 MAJOR INDEXES -Dow , S&P, QQQ's- are all down YTD.
As this 2022 YTD chart illustrates, Energy has remained positive for the year, although it had a substantial give back May-June of -40% -
Something to be said for stops and Technical analysis when this occurs-

Also , perhaps just as important in realizing what is in favor, is knowing what is Out of favor-
The light Blue line at the bottom of the chart is the ARKK funds-
The Black line is SARK- an ETF that is short the ARKK fund.



Is it possible to consistently "time" getting into SARK and going short the ARKK funds? A caution : THE PERIODIC OUTPERFORMANCE OF SARK IS IN RESPONSE TO THE OUTSIZED MOVES IN THE OPTIONS AGAINST ARKK. Last week I took a quick 4 day trade in QID, SARK - and it was a net quick gain scaling out and with stops.
The Chart is comparing SARK TO ARKK, and QID to the QQQ's.
Potentially, these could be considered as Pairs trades- When the stuff is hitting the fan, positioning to the short side as a potential defense using a portion of funds- However, Inverse funds are not to be considered good for the longer term - particularly as they may use options to gain that relative outperformance. Inverse ETFs are also closed out daily by the fund sponsor, and a new position is initiated with options or other derivatives the next day-




How does one backtest their trading approach? Can market timing be used successfully over a number of market turns? Brian Livinston concedes that Timing doesn't work but applies an approach using asset rotation models- that only adjust once every month- LOL- I should have got the dust off and read that again this year LOL!
Brian Livingston has written Muscular Portfolios in 2018 and came up with several different portfolio models - Mama Bear, Papa Bear etc- that may underperform during strong bull markets, but outperform in downtrending markets-
www.amazon.com/Muscular-Portfolios-Investing-Revolution-Superior/dp/194688538X?asin=194688538X&revisionId=&format=4&depth=1



www.etfscreen.com/muscular-portfolios/papa-bear-record.php
www.etfscreen.com/muscular-portfolios/papa-bear.php



Screenshot 2:45 pm - losses are reducing as the day goes on!


EOD CLOSE: Up slightly +0.4% from the Friday Close-giving back some intraday gains.
URA remains the best 1 day performer - up + 7.39%



At the EOD- The indexes all made slightly lower closes than they did on Friday- and the $VIX contracts increased as more funds sought to protect themselves from further downside-
In this screenshot - notice also that the stocks with the best % gains were all energy except ILMN....

[sd]

Let's backtest the standard 0.02,0.2 Parabolic Psar using SPY during 2022. Let's give us a $10,000.00 starting position buying the Open on Jan 3. (Note that the PSAR buy was several weeks earlier in late DEC 2021 ...
The chart below is my default Daily with a few moving averages, and 2 different PSAR values- the tradional standard Psar and a faster PSAR-
The Faster PSAR will Close in on price sooner than the slower traditional PSAR-
I will start initially by using the conventional PSAR value - as the entry buy-stop, and the faster Psar as a stop-loss- particularly when the trend is to the downside. In the case of whipsaws- where the fast psar gets stopped out, but then a reentry is signaled, the reentry signal will be followed. During periods of longer trends, the slower psar will eventually merge with the faster psar .
school.stockcharts.com/doku.php?id=technical_indicators:parabolic_sar



As this Daily chart shows, 2022 started with prices trending down, breaking below the 50 ema initially, and then the 50 ema breaks below the 200.
For Technicians, this is a bearish occurrence- and they want to see the 50 cross back above the 200 and the emas back in proper alignment in an upslope. While the slope of the trends- should give one a bias as to whether be taking bullish trades or to be more cautious- Let's explore the merits of trying to follow the PSAR signals in a predominate downtrend-

This chart looks pretty congested- so I will remove the fast 7 ema, and divide this chart into a 5 month duration . We will also eliminate the various indicators, volume. as we are interested in seeing how PSAR as an individual signal would have performed YTD.

Note that the SPY Opened $472.78 on Jan 3 as the BUY - It Closed today @ $402.63 for a loss of - $70.15 / 472.78 or - 14.84%
A $10K position on Jan 3 bought 21.15 shares. Technically, the PSAR indicates a Stop and Reverse - meaning from Long to go Short, to go Long-
I will start with just viewing this as a go-long indicator- and see what merits- if any- this provides.



I've eliminated the moving averages- chart with just the basics - the 2 Psar values for entries and stops- - and I've shortened the charts for 2022 with the 1st chart from Jan - May... Not adjusted for slippage.

Trade 1 was the Entry on Jan 3 @ the open 21.15 shares bought @ $472.78.
Trade 2- on Jan 5- the stop-loss is hit on the fast Psar for a loss of -$3.98 or - $84.18 Account value $9,915.00
Trade 3-Long- Jan 29- Entry $442.50 purchases 22.41 shares. Account $9,915.00
Trade 4 Sell 2-11 $ $441.50 Loss - $22.41 $9,893.00 2-11
Trade 5 buy 22.64 @ $437.00 3-1
Trade 6 -3-5 Stop hit $422.00 x 22.64 = $9,554.00
Trade 7 - Buy 21.86 @ $437.00 = $9,554.00
Trade 8 - Stop hit- Sell 21.86 @ $449.00 = $9,816.00
Trade 9 BUY - 5-5 23.23 shares @ $422.50 =$9,409.00
tRADE 10- STOP lOSS HIT 5-6 $405 X 23.23 = $9,408.00
tRADE 11 -bUY STOP HIT 5-26 $398.50 = 23.61 SHARES $9,408.00
aCCOUNT VALUE AT THAT bUY POINT ON 5-26 = $9,408.00
wHERE IS THE SPY BUY AND HOLD AT THIS POINT ON 5-26 OPEN?

$472.78 opEN- BOUGHT 21.15 SHARES. buy AND hold jAN 3- oPEN 5-26 $390.62 = 21.15 SHARES ARE WORTH $8,262.00

sO, THE bUY AND hOLD LOSS AT THIS POINT IS $10,000- $8,262.00 = A LOSS OF -$1,738.00 OR -17%.

The PSAR approach on 5-26 = $9,408.00 or a Loss of $592.00 or - 5.92% approx just 1/3 of the loss of Buy and Hold-
This does not account for the Reverse where one would potentially use the Psar to go short the position.
What the slower Psar did during this downtrending period was to stay in cash until a BUY signal was generated.
So far, in this partial review, the Psar /TA entry Exit looks promising

however, let's compare the rest of the year to Date with a long only Bias...
Note that the PSAR stands for Stop And Reverse-meaning once stopped out from being Long a position, you would then go short -until getting stopped out and reversing back to the long side. The caveat here is that PSAR works best when the markets are directionally trending, and is prone to whipsaw signals when markets are in a sideways range....
That noted, the initial results on just going long for the 1st 5 months of 2022 certainly look promising from a capital preservation point of view.



Continuing the Backtest for the remainder of 2022 to the present day cLOSE ON 8-29.....



OVERALL - The initial Positive results of this SPY backtest look compelling. This is only testing Psar as a go-long system with a fast Psar stop-loss.
The system extreme drawdown was June 30 -Trade 13 $9,196.00 or approx -8% lowest loss.
Compared to the SPY max drawdown for the year- June 17 $366.... 472.78 -366= - $ 106.78 x 21.15 shares= -$2,258.00 A 22 % decline in the initial investment of $ 10K !

The PSAR- in this GO LONG SIGNAL only evaluation is that it stops out on the Faster Psar value, and goes into cash until a trailing buy-stop order is filled on the declining slow Psar - It also captures the majority of profits within uptrends- IT LOOKS VERY PROMISING as a method of reducing one's account volatility- Without using any other TA indicator to enhance better timing on the entries- Stochastic or the ADX come to mind- as well as simply viewing the direction of the ema's- Of course, that's when the signals get influenced by "discretionary" human interpretation.


However, the Psar is designed as a Go Long- And then Go Short, and then go long-again-
So, I will go back and evaluate the net results of taking those short signals-
Charts may get a bit crowded. I'll color the short trades differently.

tHE SHORT trades Jan - May net a +$13.5 gain /share with more losing trades than winning--0 That noted- - it would result in approx a net + gain 20 shares +/- $270.00





Overall, this application of PSAR as a go long- go short system gets whipsawed with a number of losing trades- but overall achieves a net + return Close to +15% not including the most recent short position that is still presently active.
The long only signals are close to Break even on the year. Taking the short trade signals would have gained a net positive return-

Some of this charting was done way too late- and some way too early - so I would want to test this out on other charts- indexes - and see if there are other signal
criteria- Like adjusting for the Primary trend using the emas as directional indicators- (don't fight the trend)
As one applies more discretionary inputs- it becomes more subjective than if one adheres to a more disciplined mechanical set of signals-
That said, I certainly am not as disciplined in following a mechanical system- and do apply a lot of discretion and often a faster time frame chart that generates more trades.

Worthwhile to backtest the PSAR signals on other charts-
Will look to do a similar backtest of the QQQ's or potentially the ARKK- with both having inverse funds available to go to the short side.

[sd]

8-30-2022
Premarket futures are indicated in the green -well before the Open-
Woke up too early, continuing the backtest of PSAR these early hours...in the prior post.
Have a morning appointment today- won't see the Open- aw shucks -miss all that green showing in stocks today- Energy positions will likely be soft today-
Still no stops in place- but will have to view the charts a bit closer this week...


Wow- Mid day EVERYTHING is in the RED! Including my Energy positions- giving up the recent gains!

EOD- WELL, I certainly had expected my weighting in energy to protect me from some of this volatility- but that was not the case today!
Didn't get to watch the markets today- planting fall crops and some late air layering...
Approx a -$2,500 loss across the Van and IB. with only 1 position- LNG that I had set a stop on some time ago. selling a partial position at the open.
I saw green in the premarket- but apparently the indexes sold off early-
Energy was the worst performer on the day, but still holds the lead as losing the least over the past 1 week-
And, September is typically a poor month for stocks-


Hmmm- I bet if I look at my charts, I would have preferred to have some stops set- I hate to say I was somewhat complacent- but testing the waters of holding positions as the market appears ready to take a dive lower- Whatever the excuses are- the direction is clearly indicated to the downside.
The fact that Energy- a relative safe haven-led the markets to the downside is a significant omen.
Nat gas investments would appear to be a solid no brainer investment- but the markets don't care about that today!
Also missed the 5 pm input of the Fast Money contributors-

Now, this is an ugly chart of my positions! Potentially I may have reacted intraday if watching small profits wither into larger losses- but other priorities kept me away. Even if Oil demand -in the near term may decline?

[sd]

8-30-

Stops are in effect in all positions- Fast Psar as a stop has been violated in most charts-

Setting stops just below today's lows for a possible bounce higher- Stops under all positions now-
The Barn doors were left wide open..
Why be surprised at this negative outcome? After all, volatility swings occur - but is this the peak of the relief rally from the July pullback off the June highs? - Can a systematic use of psar as an entry/exit protect profits, reduce losses?

a quick review of the PSAR stops show that the faster psar generated a sell signal, while the majority of positions the slower psar has not- yet-
However the drop with a close well below the fast ema- may signify a break of the uptrend most opf these positions are showing-
Stops essentially set to be at yesterdays price lows-since most positions made a bearish Close below the fast ema; allowing for a potential for the price to regain some upside-
Since I'm bullish and overweight "Energy"- and, based on the 50 ema is above the 200 ema-and is still uptrending- -is reacting to yesterday's volatility premature? Certainly that's potentially the case- In the chart below, price bars have been removed.
The Fast Psar are the Gold dots, The slower Psar are the green dots. The Stochastic indicator- is noted that -when it moves lower-and the fast stochastic line breaks below the 80 line, that also coincides with a Fast Psar Sell - Mar 8 sto-break - Fast Psar 3 days lag.
9 times a Fast psar was generated in 2022. in 6 of those times- the slower Psar also followed with a sell- 66% .






Let's Backtest a $10,000 investment Buy and Hold versus Fast Psar as a stoploss- on a long only approach.

edit- i Had backtested the fast PSAR versus buy and hold-started this am and completed this pm- with approx 16 Buy and sells generated YTD.
Note that I had expected that the fast Psar would outperform- particyularly with the large decline in the uptrend- In June-
However, the Buy and Hold outperformed the PSAR by a factor of about a $500+ difference overall-
The return was approx 30% + YTD for the psar if memory is correct.
Unfortunately, the annotations were deleted when I tried to upload the chart into stockcharts after being open for over 12 hours.
However, I may attempt to redo this chart/trades tomorrow.

[sd]

8-31-2022 Futures are in the green- Oil prices premarket are lower- Russia-Gasprom will cut off Nat Gas ?
EOD- Day spent with Family on the lake was a pleasure! Ignored the market and the notifications that stops were executing-....locking in losses..
The finviz Group chart for the Day and the 1 week- All red- losses across the board, with Energy the only sector making/holding gains during August.

[sd]

9-1-2022 September is here!
Traditionally a weak month for stocks- Futures are in the Red and OIl lower 3 hours before the open-.
A substantial give back on my part Monday and Tuesday- and I've still got a few positions open- where several stops were not raised in the Van account.
Will take those losses today it appears- The issue with Vanguard as a brokerage- In the after hours markets, traders will put in very low Bid offers to Buy and to Sell- VAn makes you set a stop-loss price that is lower than the lowest Bid price-even though that will not be the actual bid at the open.

I caught a glimpse of a tactical ETF that is supposed to be sector oriented and rebalanced monthly- XLSR
www.ssga.com/us/en/intermediary/etfs/funds/spdr-ssga-us-sector-rotation-etf-xlsr
Results in comparison to holding SPY itself- not very impressive for a managed tactical ETF performance wise....



In the news: US Gov't restricts the sale of NVDA, AMD high end chips- to China-
Jobs number reports tomorrow.
A strong jobs report is a catalyst for a higher rate increase as the Fed's mandate to curb inflation is intentionally designed to negatively affect the jobs market as the present rate of higher wages, job hopping, has contributed to workers buying more goods - adding to the inflationary spiral

Semis have been taking losses over the past week +

Shorting using SSG 2x inverse stop-limit $27, $27.50

Used the small amount of free cash in the IB account- SSG gapped above my entry order limit- bought it by adjusting my order higher .


remaining positions in IB stopped out, CLH, FCG haven't hit the stops yet in the Van account-
Van will not allow me to buy leveraged or Inverse funds- Tried to buy SARK with the free cash in Van- Not allowed!



I had to chase and enter SSG above my stop-limit-price was extended.Lots of negative news about the Semis-
$28.35 entry- Thought it would get a bounce again off the Vwap- set a stop just below- there @ $28.88- Executed as price made a small gap below the Vwap-
Made a bit of change on the small trade.


@ EOD- the URA position had gains and stopped out as price retraced.

The IB account is now All cash $17,502.00 Waiting for the cash to Clear for trading.
Van - $45,618.00 CLH,FCG, - the remaining 2 positions that did not stop-out- the rest is all cash with a small 1m share tracking position on some of the portfolio.

Tough Week! Acct values $63,120 vs $65,905 the Close last week- Loss of $-2,785.00 or a -4% account decline. That's volatility and weakness in the Energy sector !A look at the 1 week performance of my positions at the EOD- Most stopped out yesterday and this am. Note that a high SCTR score did not provide much staying power as the markets sold off.




The Finviz/groups performance shows Losses across all sectors for the recent 5 days-
On the 1 month chart Energy had reigned as the best performer in a sea of red- but it has declined it's leadership to just 3.4% gains.



Follow the SPY performance as the market indicator-
a Major support level should be @ 390.00 , FOLLOWED BY 370- JOBS report Friday- A 'good' jobs report will be viewed as a negative....




The QQQ's :



Is this sell-off getting overdone?
What rallies from these lows?

[sd]

Buying Energy back - The initial pop higher lured me back into the Energy sector . Also a pop higher with NOBL - Dividend Aristocrat ETF is allowing me to take an early entry lower than where I exited.
Bullish jobs report seems to indicate that wages only moderately higher- Jobs market remains strong- -interpreted as a positive for the Fed to raise rates- but perhaps not aggressively- Inflation appeared to slow in July, and if it also slowed in August- the Fed may relax the higher 75 pt hike that is now widely expected- Sept 21 - Fed
XLE,FCG,CLH,URA, CCJ, & a large reentry into NOBL.
Screenshots taken after 10 am: 2 Hr charts-







Adding LNG in the PM- Russia cuts off all NG to Europe.

[sd]

9-6-2022 Post Labor Day Futures -at least premarket- are in the Green-
China continues with more lockdowns, Europe is facing inflation and energy shortages as they go into the Fall/winter-
My Energy positions- should be good as investments for the longer term -weeks and months ahead- but it comes with a lot of volatility-
Selling the QID short @ the open.
Of course, Friday started off Bullish in the early hours and then turned South!
Opec announces production cuts due to the expected slowing demand from China-
Would a position in Tan or ICLN make sense at these levels? both are testing the August gap levels
- Premarket ICLN is bid higher- $21.70
Nat gas futures are lower.
Shorting - long SARK $59.95 & Semis SSG.$28.98 in the IB
URA and CCJ ripping higher. LNG gap higher open.
XLE small gap higher off the open.

Will get a better sense of market direction @ 10 am-
Indexes rolling into the Red- Long SDS to short the S&P $46.31 been basing at this level for the prior 2 days.
IB allows me take inverse positions in the Roth and Vanguard does not.

Energy bills in Europe projected to be up 200 % this year!
A potential crisis for Energy Margin calls- Expected to be bullish for US LNG exports-
However, While the energy /gas stocks opened high at the open, pulling back post 10 am....
When will we see energy disruption in the US due to a hurricane in the Gulf? September and October normally sees some weather concerns---

Listening to an energy analyst on CNBC- projecting that a recession would cause slowing energy demand- and likely lower oil prices- but the variables are that the US has depleted it's reserves, and any disruption to the supply will see prices spike- So, like being at the casino- Do you bet on Black or Red?

the 3 shorts are in the Green @ 10:15
Will check back in midday- Heading out to propogate a few plants-with air layers.

Midday- short position QID stops out after having a good start-
The upside momentum in LNG, URA is fading...
Stops on the IB positions.

[sd]

9-7-2022
Futures down just slightly a few minutes pre open.
Turn around yesterday on the bullish initial moves in LNG and URA-

With all the news and talk about how Dire the situation is for Europe going into this winter- and the vast shortages they are facing- I would have expected Energy stocks to be strong- plus we have to refill the strategic US storage that we have been releasing a million barrels of oil daily-

AAPL announces it's product launch today- AAPL has been holding up the markets....
Stil short the Semis- and short ARKK
Adjusting stops in the IB - using the faster daily psar-
Markets look to be moving higher- 10 am.... raising stops on the short positions to today's swing low-
ICLN, TAN - solar sector gaining...
QQQ's up slightly- Energy gap downn lower on the open- I'm not positioned well as I'm overweight Energy- I've a large % in cash- may consider adding to some of those positions-in the Van account on this pullback-
Holding CLH, - adding to ICLN on today's bullish move higher-
Will add to URA, CCJ on today's pullback.
Using a 5 minute chart with a stop-limit order in place to add to the position- The buy-stop periodically gets adjusted lower based on the declining PSAR value . I'm 1- 5 minute psar value trailing on the order-



Buy-stop limit order fills:

THE EOD- SCREENSHOT- POSITIVE PRICE ACTION ON THIS ADD TO THE POSITION.


CCJ IS A MAJOR COMPANY IN THE NUCLEAR-URANIUM PRODUCER .
tHE CHART illustrates how volatile CCJ is- with large price swings in 2022


Also added to the CCJ position, and added Both in the Van account.
Thesis -as an investment- Both are in the nuclear industry- Both are technically in an uptrend- The need for added nuclear power as an environmentally clean source of energy is becoming more cautiously accepted as apotential necessity-
Neither are trending strongly- both are presently a step above the August pullback, but are present sideways basing in an uptrend..
URA is net flat YTD, while CCJ- is UP on the YTD.
tHE ASSUMPTION : URA will continue from this second upward thrust to challenge it's prior April Highs-
it also provides a reasonable % for a protective stop-loss



Mid afternoon views- All short positions stopped out for net losses-
Nice market moves in CCJ, ICLN, URA
Infastructure ETFs, Solar, all trying to make moves higher- IFRA, PAVE, ICLN,TAN Will this be a bottom reversal?
Added ICLN, AAPL,VMC, Added to LNG on this pullback.

The AAPL position was determined by the News that AAPL will not be raising the cost of it's phones- a positive up move-this afternoon in the base- and this offers a very tight stop in what has been a 2 week decline.
orders filled today in Vanguard: Puts me back all-in with some additional diversification




Going into the Close, Broad rally day for the indexes! It's about time! Unfortunately, Energy sector is not joining in .
i'M PRESENTLY aLL IN EXCEPT FOR THE SELL TRANSACTIONS THAT EXECUTED TODAY.
aT the Close- I have a gain across all account of $+300.00 compared to yesterday's Low Closes. Unfortunately, I've held my Energy positions despite the Psar sells that all got the prior wqeek- In part , my obstinence is based on my interpretation of what i hear positively about the energy companies- all still trading at very low PE's despite their upside move the past year. Unfortunately, I should have at least followed the Daily Psar and cut positions because they have been a significant % of my drawdown recently. Tim Seymour again praises the Energy/Oil companies- as very changed companies with great balance sheets- As Adami points out, the markets are selling off OIL expecting that the potential future recession facing us will cause a surplus in the Oil supply and even reduced prices- However, that is the markets "front running" based on potential outcomes- months down the road based on the impact of Fed tightening- Recession, and a slowing of GDP here and worldwide.
With today's Sells in response to the market's turn higher of the short positions locked in some small losses- but will free up some $7.5K for next week in the IB. -
The Primary question is -Will today's bounce have any follow through? Another shot at a bear market rally?
I may have to cry Uncle and lock in losses if Energy continues to decline- but I added to the LNG today on it's pullback.
If I'm going to be 'Active' - i need to check in on the market and the portfolio daily- and potentially become more of a trader in the IB account- I could have scaled out of part of URA and CCJ on yesterday's big gap open---as it faded. Woulda-Coulda- after the fact realizing the "Shoulda" was there -

[sd]

9-8-2022 Appointment this am- won't catch the open-

Yesterday's attempt to rally comes from a pause in the downtrend this week in both SPY, QQQ's,and the Dow-
Watching Dan Nathan, Carter Worth, and Tom Sossnoff Mkt Call-
Discussing recent market calls from financial institutions- that project we will see lower lows....
Nathan and Worth echoing the negative view that the Risk to Reward is a greater likelihood to the downside.
Carter had called to short AAPL 2 weeks ago- Thinks it's now likely flat as it's retraced a good portion of the prior upmove.
Sossnoff -while also bearish notes that the "protection" buying -the $vix- is not indicating a lot of put protection that is betting on a bigger downside move.
Nathan cites that we haven't seen is market's-investors- noting that a 'panic capitulation' hasn't occurred defining a bottom.

www.youtube.com/watch?v=ffLEofRZ_L8
i.imgur.com/eLBRge4.png




Returned just before the Close- Buying PHO- the water ETF in the IB with the free cash. Again, diversifying the portfolio - Water is an essential commodity- and likely we will see many of the communities will have to upgrade their aging water systems in the years ahead- So this is another aspect of the inftrastructure funding... This also provides a relatively well defined stop-loss of 4%

Scott Minerd predicts another -20% decline- Says the S&P is selling at 19x - and should be lower based on what will be declines in forward earnings.
Seasonal performance in Sept and October -historically a bad period....for stocks- However, will a more defensive portfolio hold up better?


portfolio is making a bit of a 2 day attempt to recover from the substantial losses, with Energy performing better today-
Guy Adami and Danny Moses ? present a serious look at where they think the markets are heading- -Lower- a Tuesday show I just viewed ...
www.youtube.com/watch?v=EyxWsH1XNgE

Today's show : continued insight into those elements of the markets that Adami and nathan are concerned with.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=uKj_C9rITm4

[sd]

Some ways to evaluate the PHO trade;
WHY I like the PHO chart: Exposure to the essential water industry....
One reason is water is a ESG play- it's a diminishing resource and vital to life on earth- Some of the companies in the ETF should benefit from the Us infrastructure funds that are designed to improve the US infrastructures- Highways, Bridges, Water lines- and even perhaps resevoirs- When we consider the future systems we have, sustaining our water resources to provide us clean water will become a more essential priority. It largely correlates with movements in the SPY as viewed over the longer term performance charts- But as this YTD chart shows- PHO was more volatile than the SPY, until recently-
What's interesting about using performance charts for Comparison, is it can give us a method to evaluate against a benchmark- a common method ....
Let's view the 1 year-2022 of PHO versus the SPY in 2022- As can be seen- both had significant declines until June- with the PHO more volatile than the SPY.



Note that the trend through Jan - June had several rallies in both the SPY and PHO- and the chart illustrates how much further below the SPY -23%
was PHO -27%- The swings lower in Pho though that 6 month period consistently showed a further decline-
So, what can be determined if we view the net performance from the June lows?
Oversold results in outperformance to the upside?



So, what about this most recent pullback and possible rally higher? Pho is slightly outperforming SPY- Will this persist?


This bounce from a swing low in a potential resumption of an upside trend is the reason for an entry


Differentiate the 2 trend directions- Early in the year, the prevailing trend was to the downside- as seen by price being below the 200 ema- and the emas generally in inverse order- despite a few rally attempts- A downtrend is considered as lower lows and lower swing high attempts- and failure to get back above the major emas- 50, 200. In June, the rally attempt put in a higher swing low mid July, and then had a significant rally, with the momentum moving all the moving averages up and to the right in the proper inclining sequence. That move peaked Mid August- but note the strength of that uptrend- with only a single daily close at the Fast EMA.
Aug 20 Psar went into sell mode when price dropped below the fast ema. Note that a trailing stop would have been hit on the Psar level on that down move.
The decline and attempt to base in September, while below the 200 ema, is a higher swing low than made in July- so we are potentially viewing the early phase of a potential new uptrending period- (fingers crossed) HOWEVER- that most recent Swing Low also presents the stop-loss level-
The PSAR value is $40.04 , and I will follow the Psar a few pennies lower- I don't like exact round dollar numbers ($48.00) , so i will drop my entry stop to $47.90.

[sd]

9-9-2022- Happy Birthday! Let's see if the markets can deliver this Friday and hold a bullish move higher!
Some freed cash that I will put back into play today.
I'm considering JOET as a potential ETF- as he tries to buy Quality & momentum- Similar positive 1st move higher off a swing low yesterday-
ZS beat on earnings & upgrade/
looking for candidates on the scans for a 2nd day of follow through to the upside-
AAPL neeeds to bounce today or it will stop out. I bought it early on the expectation that it's pullback would rally on the product release - Yesterday's lack of follow thru and a lower Close (and still below the daily PSAR) is not inspiring.
A look at what sectors have been working this past week: Healthcare the leader so far...


Value has sold off -VTV- seeing a bounce yesterday-
Healthcare and biotech- xlv, ibb, xbi, -looking for a bounce today-
Selecting IBB with a buy-stop and also JOET -

Filled on IBB at the open on a buy-stop $127 with a limit $128- filled $127.43
Cancelled JOET- bought VTV- JOET simply doesn't have any volume- my order was never addressed-
Bought the Value index. VTV as it gapped a bit higher on the open.
AAPL popped up a bit on the open- I will use yesterday's swing low ($152.68) and set a stop @ $152.60

Post 10 am- Everything is in the green except ICLN a bit soft today.
Recovering some $$$$ in the accounts. Still waiting for cash to clear in the Van- All positions in the IB.are in the Green-above my entry cost.
In the Van accounts, net profitable average gain with the XLE and FCG positions still in the RED slightly, but improving-

As the 2022 YTD chart illustrates, AAPL has struggled this year- If purchased in Jan and Held, it had a significant decline- and it presently trades at a relatively Rich valuation compared to it's past history.
This Daily chart illustrates my technically Early entry (Daily PSAR is still declining) However, as I view the June lows, AAPL is similar to many other charts that initially rallied higher on Optimism in July and August, and have since weakened- However, this is potentially a pullback to a higher swing low- and so offers a potentially early entry- Not trusting this market though, the swing low provides me a level to set my stop should the markets not cooperate with a continued thrust back to the upside..



CCJ -URANIUM PRODUCER- STOP $27.95 - hOLDING IN vAN & IB
ENERGY THEME - NUCLEAR IS A VIABLE ESG SOLUTION. COMING BACK ON LINE IN EUROPE.....hOWEVER, IS EXTENDED ABOVE THE FAST EMA.MAY SELL A PARTIAL.


VTV ENTRY -COST $137.89 - DIVERSIFYING THE HOLDINGS, Also an early entry off the recent swing low. Regaining price above the 200 ema.
exceeded the declining PSAR, Green Momo Elder bar- Market broad momo upside- well defined stop level- "Value" should represent less volatility -


IBB entry-The Healthcare sector gaining some momentum this past week- Looking for the Biotech sector to providesome additional momentum potentially.
Biotech is more volatile- I do not want to use the wide Psar stop on this position- and Risk that much .
Entry cost $127.42 - entry stop $124.00- fast ema -the PSAR value on a fast 2 hr chart-

tHE Daily chart:


My combined positions in the IB in the URA & CCJ are almost $8k- so they will likely move in tandem- and they represent a 45% weighting position size-
Since both trades are net profitable , I may trim some gains in each in the IB account- and use those net gains to offset any retracement on the remainder.
Both positions opened higher today, but aren't holding the net higher move- will watch these on the 5 min charts to determine if I want to scale some of the position out for the quick gains.
The danger of watching real time is that the price volatility prompts one to want to react- and potentially miss out on a larger multi day move-
price action counts- as does gauge the distance away from the fast ema on an upmove- to net some gains.
CCJ- sold 1/2 of the position as price declines into a tightened stop for 50% of the position- nets a small gain- URA stop under today's swing low is still holding mid afternoon...

\
The market sentiment- and fund managers are very hesitant to think we will not go lower- and potentially find a bottom this October-
Minerd thinks we go down 20 % to make a deeper low below the June low- Others-also believe that this few days of upside is a potential short term bear market rally. Seasonal weakness for the next 1-2 months is more often the norm- I'll plan on paying more attention to the markets as gardening slows down with just a few fall cooler weather crops to get my attention- It's also too late now to do much air layering- as 6 weeks is often the duration needed to get results-

Let's Tally up this week's attempt at a bit of a recovery.

IB $17,842.00 Van- $46,398.00 = $64,240.00
SD's 2022 start:$18,078 + $43,742 = $61,820.00 Net gain YTD $2,420/61,820 = a +3.91% gain

Comparing to the 3 index averages-
Copy and pasting the 1st week's index performances:1 week index performance : DIA start 364.34 ; SPY 476.30 -; QQQ $399.05
DIA 364.34 - 322.28 = -42.06/364.34 = -11.5%
SPY 476.30 - 406.60 = -69.70/476.30 = -14.63%
QQQ 399.05 - 307.09 = -91.96/399.05 = -23%

Combined losses / 3 = -49.3/3 = -16.38 % average across the indexes-
Relative performance difference= 3.91 = a 20.29 % differential YTD.

Rechecked the settlement account- and the cost basis- Barely net profitable on my recent purchases in the Van Account- Appears to be virtually all in presently in the Van- some 2K waiting to clear in the IB ....

Grasso thinks we go lower- waiting for the mid term elections.
There seems to be a general logical consensus that future growth will be slowing, that earnings will be reduced, and that the present PE's are above the historical average- I heard a 15.8x PE as the nominal average- and if we are actually slowing in earnings growth with higher labor costs, lower productivity, those profit margins will be getting squeezed...and the markets will want to pay less to own those companies that cannot outperform.
I think that makes an excellent case to be more defensive, to be prepared for more market volatility- look for opportun ities to raise some cash to be able to potentially put to work at better future prices- at a discount to today's prices-

I may allow myself to trade on a faster time frame -particularly in the IB-

Grasso brings up the China /Taiwan possible conflict as a possible Black Swan event no one is pricing in- that would cause a huge drop overnight in the markets-or in the middle of the day for that matter-

Interesting comparisom of the Utility index versus the S&P 500 index by Carter worth- Over the past 25 years, The TR- Total return including dividends reinvested- the utility return equals the S& P return- Since Utilities are Safe and Boring-
Interesting Performance chart YTD against the indexes:



The End of Week sector performance :Wow- everything ended up Green for the week!

[sd]

9-11 Sad memorial day we will never forget nor ever Forgive.
We must always be prepared to Defend and protect from radical terrorism- that seeks to undermine our values, our Freedom, our way of Life-

[sd]

9-12-2022
Premarket futures are in the Green! Let's see how the sectors perform today...Presently Energy- XLE is up a bit premarket-although OIL prices are still heading lower and anticipated to decline further on lower future demand as China
No free cash available- IB waiting for the proceeds from a partial-lock in profits- sale of CCJ to clear- Still holding a 10% account position in IB-Reduced from 20% - URA position in the IB is also an overweight position- 25%. That's really pushing the single position Risk envelope- When it works in your favor, it's all well and good- but should the position turn South, position losses can be significant- particularly in a single stock position-
My cost basis for the position's 185 shares is $22.60 , and it moved up Thursday, and Friday pushed above it's recent 3 month high made in June-
It's worth noticing the ETF's price action as it made a push higher June 7 on big buying volume- and the following day had a gap higher open further away from the fast ema, with a lower Close below the June 7 bullish Close- From there it sold off and broke the trend- and declined to the $18 level.

While I would like to think URA could be getting enough upside to challenge the prior April $28 high- how do I protect my position if it turns South- and volatile on me . Price is extended away from the $23.13 Ema . I will scale out in partial sells- ideally seeing price move higher at the open. If I sell a portion today for a higher gain, it allows me to give it a bit more room on the remaining stops.




positioning at the open-Expecting a bullish open for the broad markets-
stop 100 @ 22.40, stop 40 $ 23.40 -and a ready to sell 45



STOP GETS HIT! Fills at $23.69


@ 9:50 -i TIGHTENED A STOP FOR 40 AND RAISED THE STOP FOR 100- iF THESE GET HIT TODAY, IT LOCKS IN A RELATIVE SMALL GAIN BASED ON PRICE WEAKNESS-
Similarly, CCJ stop has been elevated



@ 9:50 Price attempts a rally - Will the prior intra day Swing Low $23.54 Hold?

Markets are holding in the green as is the XLE energy ETF...



@ 10:25 am - It appears that URA is still basing today- with potentially sideways price action-
Price managed to rally off that 9:50 swing low presently, with the bullish green Elder bars moving up to touch the declining Psar- generating a possible Psar Buy signal with the new lower psar becoming the stop-loss However- the momentum or trend is not yet very supportive.
I will keep my wider stop-loss @ $23.40 for the time being. Looking left on the chart, the prior Day swing lows managed to hold above $23.50



In the IB account, I'm using the 2 hr chart to guide setting higher stops- with the goal to capture smaller gains than relying on the daily charts-

AAPL making a very nice Pop higher off it's swing low- I had just taken a position last week because of bullish price action and a pause in the decline-

Today it made a Gap higher open- and that generates a PSAR Buy on the Daily chart- Notice that the Daily PSAR stop loss is at the recent Swing Low price bar
AAPL is down on the year, is trading at a relatively High PE 24x and so it's not a great "value" at this relative PE- The opportunity is to Trade AAPL- and not Hold AAPL as Cramer suggests-


EOD-
Nice Gains across all indexes- Oil higher-Energy sector leads. Looks as though the market participants are positioning bullishly despite the warnings from the Pros warning of greater downside this month as being inevitable. Likely thinking that the Fed will find the Data supports a less Hawkish stance- I still think we see them stick to a 75 pt rate hike. Yes, inflation is coming down- but still high. We're a long way from the Fed's 2% ideal inflation ...
Enjoy the rally and expect it to fizzle