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Post by sd on Oct 13, 2022 8:23:59 GMT -5
10-13-2022
Futures turned Red with the CPI report-
Markets will open with gaps to the downside
Bought SDS, SARK starting positions at the open-
Started with just 1k positions, leaving some free cash to add on a swing back lower-
SSG short gapped +9% higher at the open!
Green across the IB inverse funds- -Red in the Van accounts.
The Open % moves higher in my inverse positions
AAPD +2%;QID +6%;REK +2%; SDS +6%;SKF +4.75%; SSG +9%;TSLQ +4%
hAVE 2.3K LEFT CLEAR IN IB- Having added to these positions yesterday with the cleared cash is working out today!
Net +4% gain in the IB account on today's gains compared to yesterday's balance- a substantial relative move ...
The volatility should smooth out by 10 am...Did not see much upside in positions directionally above the higher open...
Looking for the swing lows
SARK - bought near the open at a high with a small entry- looking to double that position at a pullback low
This higher inflation report than expectations means the FED is assumed to stay hawkish for longer on rates.
Post 10 am, the markets initial higher move to sell -off is mitigating- The larger % gains are giving back-
So, while I was looking to add several positions -to start new positions- I should have jumped on those high% moves offered by SSG to lock in a portion of the gain possible at the open, particularly if the 2nd 5 min bar moved lower-
Notice that SSG opened above $41 ,pulled back off that open and had declined to a $38.90 low - This is a breakout of the recent range - I've held this for several days on a cost basis of $38.25
Overall, net gains are reduced by 50% @ 10:30 am - this allows me to rachet stops a bit tighter-
My Bias continues to be overall bearish, but I think we're very close to bottoming in the near term-
THE SSG trade is almost negated as price recovers-Selling for a net loss-
Covered today's SDS entry by closing for a loss.
Added to SARK $65.60-
Covering -selling ALL: my short positions with sell @ MKT orders on this recovery-
Adding to value , energy in the Van accounts
FLIPPED TO THE LONG SIDE!!!!
11:30 am- REVERSAL Underway- GO LONG!!!!
i SOLD All inverse ETF except REK-- just stopped out at Cost.
Rally is ON!
Bought DIG- Ultra long energy ETF-in the IB with the last clear cash-
Went long 100% all in cleared funds in the Van accounts-
Conservatively bought VALuE oriented funds here- OUSA,OUSM,VTV,
Amazing-timing-!!! While Dan Niles was speaking this am - He believes the markets are set up for a rally move higher that ultimately fails- and we go down to $3,000 on the S&P -
$VIX dropping - perhaps that was the Tell this am as stocks initially sold off but the $VIX had opened Lower than yesterday- Worth while to watch where this may go- A dropping $Vix is Bullish for stocks-
An absolutely amazing reversal here- Particularly in the Face of a bearish CPI report released this am!
Here at mid day- Look at the GREEN on this performance chart for the S&P sectors-
The trades in the Van accounts this am used up All of my cleared cash position-
Because I do not know if this Rally can hold today, or for the next week, I primarily added to what one could assume are the Value sectors-
I had been starting to take partial value positions earlier this week in the Van- Discussed the AYUV small cap value ETF previously as one ETF that both pays a dividend and also has been the better performer within that group of ETFs this year.
Today, the Van account is presently up with a 2% + gain from yesterday- a very sizable 1 day move for that account-
Conversely, the IB lost a bit, and is just at $19k- lost about $110 from yesterday's value - or -.5%
So, I'm all in - in the Van- Primarily Energy, Value with a few partial small individual stock positions recently taken-
I'm not trying to be greedy here- looking to have a bit more of a "safety" and "value" oriented portfoliuo- That i wil - market ideally rising- Plan to trail stops on- because I expect this reversal today to last more than a single day...
LOLO added to value positions as well - All-in-
Stops -put below Today's initial lows on the charts following the substantial reversal moves higher-
In the IB:
CPI report- Highest inflation in 40 Years-
CNBC pundits-Fed will continue to be firm in keeping the high rate increases-at least into 2023 -
Prof jeremy Siegel argued with Steve Liesman that the FED has already overdone the damage that the high rates will impose on the economy- it just takes Time for those impacts to work through the economy. That the Fed was late and mistaken in being late to initiate rate increases believing the rising inflation last year was transitory- and they will cause a hard landing here- because they don't realize that the Rate increase impacts are just now starting to be seen in the economy- and that they should not focus on causing a crush for employees to lose jobs etc. Siegel is saying- OK- increase rates but at a lower pace.
List of positions in the Vanguard Funds- Roth & IRA
Candidly, I just recently started to consider taking some Dividend fund exposure as a needed component in a portfolio.
I'm going to be taking back some previously managed funds - and will look to include some dividend paying focus funds as a portion of the portfolio-
I have a lot to learn in this regard- but including exposure to dividends and the potential Total Return when dividends are reinvested may prove to be a prudent way to provide some stability in a long portfolio-
So, these recent dividend purchases are not well researched- I just wanted to get some exposure in that area-
For example, many of these funds have a low or 0% exposure to energy- yet one of the better performing funds is one that held exposure to dividend paying energy stocks-HDV with a .08 exp and 3.77% yield!
Had I been aware of this name before going all in, I would have added this fund - Going forward, I should develop a playbook for where I want to shift allocations-and have that handy for days like today-
Today's upmove reversal is NOT the eventual Bottom- It's just a bear market -oversold- rally- Perhaps we can get some upside for a week- but we should not believe that this high volume bounce will be the ultimate lower low we must reach-
This article by "The Stock Market Bubble" elaborates on why this was not the bottom- Worth a quick read
thestockbubble.com/three-things-must-happen/
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Post by sd on Oct 13, 2022 17:51:08 GMT -5
EOD recap 10-13-2022
While I keep a notebook with some basic daily info- as we all should- We should also take note of what we did good, did poorly, and what do we feel about our performance on the day-
Overall, I'm pleased with my ability to see the handwriting on the wall this morning as I saw my inverse funds initially gaining with a big market drop down on a bad CPI report- that quickly reversed and became a big market ripping rally! Unfortunately, I used most of my freed cash at the open in the IB to initiate several inverse positions which almost immediately started to turn against me- And I took relatively small losses and sold those and my remaining open possitions profits started evaporating- and - I finally had a bit of free cash in the IB to buy a small position in DIG- - Have to be cautious in using leveraged funds- they get rebalanced daily- and typically can become losing positions even if the trade direction is correct if held too long-
What I did wrong is I did not sell partially to lock in the wide gains offered at the open- I was relatively slow to react, looking to give the markets 30 minutes...and my focus was not on trimming gains but to get new positions underway- I saw $400 evaporate on the SSG position-That could have been benefitting the bottom line by trimming 1/2 - something I've learned to try to do on big gap away momentum moves- just missed being focused here today...
Earlier this week I held some of my energy positions- and started a few "value" positions- focus on dividend payers- I even bought CCJ on the big gap down -not fully understanding the reason the acquisition they made was seen so negatively- but I felt i need to have some exposure in the nuclear arena- I don't know where this goes in the near term- but i likely will use yesterday's swing low as my stop-
When I realized a market wide rally was going on mid morning- and my IB trades were covered/sold- I flipped over to the Van accounts- had some freed cash available and started buying- adding to some existing positions and added a few new- I went All-In- and caught 1K in upside from yesterday- at least on paper- about 2% gain net. Where I missed out, I had cash waiting to average in on some of the energy positions that I was in the red on a bit- that I did not hold stops on this week.
So, I really hope those plays see more upside this week- even if Oil/energy prices drop a bit more.... I have to be cautious here, but I still think the energy plays- although long term winners- still potentially have more upside...but again- that's my 'bias' - let the charts tell me whether the markets agree.
It's easy to get focused up on a day by day view- but I have to keep things in perspective- Earlier this week, I was seeing some Red in the Van and letting it pull the averages down- and the IB funds had been sideways - So today's move seemed to be a much bigger win than it was...when I look at the account Closing value last week and compare - today's gains were up from yesterday's balances- but on a week by week, I'm just getting back into barely higher territory- Some follow thru tomorrow will benefit the Friday EOW summary!.
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Post by sd on Oct 14, 2022 8:13:41 GMT -5
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Post by sd on Oct 15, 2022 7:51:30 GMT -5
10-15-2022 Saturday - End of Week review
WTF happened this week? I was set up nicely- shorting TSLA, AAPL, Semis-etc, and patient- Thursday came and I was nicely up at the open and then the semitruck that is the market did a UTURN and flipped off the SPY hitting a technical low support level.
Going to get more posted, have to get the new glasses adjusted this am-.
Had a very nice $1k up day, and now all that was negated and I'm pushing back to a weekly lower level-
Let's get to it-\
Van EOW- $46,977.00
IB $19,017.00
combined $65,994.00 so net YTD gain $4,174.00 =+ 6.75%
YTD Going baCK to the start:
"SD's 2022 start:$18,078 + $43,742 = $61,820.00" - So, I'm chopping lettuce this week- - Last week was +8% YTD gain.
Getting to the relative performance where I compare versus the 3 indexes-
Copy and pasting the 1st week's index performances:1 week index performance : DIA start 364.34 ; SPY 476.30 -; QQQ $399.05
DIA 364.34 -296.82 = -67.52 =-18.5%
SPY 476.30 -357.63 =-118.67 =-24.9%
QQQ 399.05 -260.74 =-138.31 =-34.7%
Combined 3 index average - =-43.75 / 3 = -14.58 avg index loss
Last week the indexes: 52.75% or a combined average loss of 52.75/3 = -17.58%
My relative performance 6.75 + 14.58 = a performance difference of 21.33% .
Last week the performance difference was 26%; so the net difference in performance was a loss in my account -1.25%
and an improvement in the combined index averages of + 3% improvement.
Plenty to review this weekend, including my long positions and being "All-in in the Van accounts- Mistake? Where do I take the loss?
Whipsawed out in the IB- and Friday saw me almost all in cash- and TSLA, AAPL breaking down- without me having any short positions...
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Post by sd on Oct 15, 2022 19:44:09 GMT -5
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Post by sd on Oct 16, 2022 15:31:03 GMT -5
10-16-2022 Sunday setting up for how to approach tomorrow-
Jason Leavitt- while believing we ultimately go lower- presents the divergences that suggest the market may still find a rationale to rally in the near term.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=J67YxBzUsdI
David Keller- The Final bar Higher conviction that we go lower!
About 20 min into the video he discusses the inverted yield curve, and when to tell when the recession indications will end?
Rising bond prices
www.youtube.com/watch?v=EiqbkCmeuuk
Further assessment- Jeffrey HUGE CMT
Waiting for Fear and capitulation: When the S&P breaks the June and Sept lows-
He goes on to discuss by the Elliot Wave reckoning- that we will see the S&P down to $2700.
Personally, I find it hard to hang your hat on Elliot or Gann approaches, but he explains his thinking and when he will know he's wrong..
www.youtube.com/watch?v=RoygUJVk2fM
IBD- Video reviewing past market declines and how to identify a bottom is in place
www.youtube.com/watch?v=q36WU2oVYPE
Market Rebellion- Explains the Thursday Bullish action as Options short covering at the target price-
I hadn't viewed this site before, but I like the interpretation given by the presenter AJ
He also anticipates we go lower this coming week. He also provides commentary on the macro stuff that is spot on-
and potentially some political commentary.....
www.youtube.com/watch?v=95LgzqGN7nI
Ticker Sybol YOU- 2 videos-
Compares Michael Burry's bearish view and Cathie Wood Bullish
www.youtube.com/watch?v=gqQmbMqFmQQ
Cathy WOOD-
Since this video aired, her ARKK fund made new lows breaking below the June lows-
www.youtube.com/watch?v=GP3KohmMeTA
Charlie Munger- Co-owner of Berkshire Hathaway gives his historical perspective:
www.youtube.com/watch?v=v5UCmsXpngA
www.youtube.com/watch?v=-WIMDG6Gd6I
OK- enough videos
Had the weekend to reflect-
Such a big 2 day whipsaw- Thursday a big move higher and Friday a thumping move back to the downtrend- OK, Machine algorythmns - Huge Options plays on a technical level - but is the Friday downturn move the forrunner of a deeper sell-off that breaks below that level- It seems many think we are still headed -broadly- not just high priced Tech- to go down deeper-
Ultimately, my decision is - My short term bias is to the downside- I'll use IB to try to invest to benefit if that continues-with short term trades-
I just put the Van accounts bullishly long - Energy and Value - Dividend and value investments- How much lower can they drop?
Do I sell them for a small loss and look to Buy them back if the market drops another -10%  ?
And- the realization is that America has not yet felt the effects of the upcoming recession we will see in 2023-
We have kicked that can down the road with financial manipulation, but the inflation genie and the Fed attempting to control it will stall this economy.
Of course, that's my bias and my Adviser would tell me about all of the historical reasons to believe that this pullback and recession will eventually work out and bottom within the next months -
I think the reality is that we get an expected rally going into the elections- the historical seasonality suggests that be the case- but just look at the excess parabolic level we have risen to-
That's the
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Post by sd on Oct 17, 2022 4:19:48 GMT -5
10-17-2022
Another waay too early wake up and since I'm "caught' in the whipsaw last Friday in the Van accounts to the bullish -long side- got to select where to take the loss if we break this recent swing low- The Best loss is always the smallest-isn't it???
As I write this 4 hours before the open, Futures are solidly in the Green- let's see where we open.
A lot of earnings reports coming out this week- The expectation is that most earnings are going to be revised lower, with future guidance likely to be negative - This marketgauge e-mail puts things in perspective-
We're making some historical negatives in this sell-off - and there is some speculation- that we've potentially got a lot more pain to endure-
The typically seasonally bullish Nov,Dec in a mid election year may not come to pass- or if it does, it should be viewed as a bear market rally- and opportunity to takea little off the table .
As pointed out in this article- No One Knows-
Where Are We Going?
Article-from Market Gauge
A Few Positive Ways To Deal With Your Investments
By Keith Schneider and Donn Goodman
When I was young, my father and Mother (she is still alive), used to take my brother and I on surprise trips. They would load us up in the car and we would say “where are we going?”
The answer was always “It’s a surprise” or “You will soon find out.” It was fun, adventurous and, as a young kid, exciting.
Sometimes we would go to get ice cream, sometimes to Cedar Point (the largest amusement park in the US today and even back then it was incredible) or just to visit my relatives in Cleveland, about an hour away.
The idea of not knowing where we were going was really cool back then.
The Markets and The Economy are having Emotional Issues
This past week almost every economist, talking head and journalist was asking “Where are we going?”
The unknown about where we are going in the economy and the bond and stock markets is creating anxiety, trepidation, uncertainty, and extreme volatility.
Let’s look at this past week. Monday-Wednesday, we were down about 2.5%, then the hotter than expected news about CPI was released on Thursday morning.
Inflation for September came in more elevated and hotter than expected and the markets dropped by 2% from the opening bell.
But by the end of the day, the stock market did one gigantic reversal and we ended up almost 3% in most of the indices. It was one of the largest intraday reversals. See chart below:
Thursday’s huge rally was followed by an equal (and opposite) reaction to the downside on Friday. It provided more emotional turmoil to a market that many had hoped would see positive follow thru. Clearly, there was none.
image
After rising almost 3% on Thursday, the S&P 500 declined by 2.4% on Friday. That marked the 53rd decline of 1% or more this year. That’s already the most volatility we have seen since 2009 and there are more than two months of this year remaining.
So, where exactly are we headed next?
The simple answer is we have no idea. Everyone has an opinion and at least half differ from the others, especially on where the market is headed next.
We can assure you that we are in for a much more volatile ride. Why?
As we have consistently been pointing out since earlier this year, there are several dominant themes playing out. They will continue to plague this stock (and bond) market. This could easily continue into midyear 2023 or even beyond.
Here are the main themes to be aware of:
Inflation: (yes, I said the dirtiest of words)
The Producer Price Index (PPI) on Wednesday gave us a good indication that inflation was not cooling anytime soon. It showed higher, not lower readings. The market continued its sell off from the beginning of the week.
This was followed by Thursday morning’s news that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) was also higher than expected. Total CPI was up 8.2% year-over-year, versus 8.3% in August. More concerning however (and damaging) was that Core CPI, which excludes food and energy (do you know anyone who does not use food/energy?—me neither) was up 6.6% versus 6.3% in August. This was the highest level for core CPI since August 1982.
Interest Rates:
We have commented on rising interest rates in great detail the past few weeks. Here is a link to last week’s Market Outlook in case you have not reviewed it yet. The interest rate charts show the 10-year going up the past 10 weeks thru last week.
Our expectations is that the Fed’s only ammunition to fight this insidious and punishing inflation affecting every American is to continue raising rates. Furthermore, the bond market (2 year and 10-year treasuries) are forecasting a potential recession in the next 6-12 months. Here is the chart of the 2/10 year spread which is experiencing the greatest inversion gap since the 1980’s:
image
We have pointed out to our clients that there are many economists, including Larry Summers, Art Laffer, and others (reputable ex-government financial gurus) that continue to predict that rates must go up much more to combat inflation. There is even talk that the 5 year will soon see at least 5% and the 10-year Treasury should go up to 4.5% before there is any kind of Fed pivot.
This will continue to put pressure on Corporate America and compress earnings. (See more below).
Earnings:
Inevitably what drives stock prices (and the market) is earnings. Analysts have already predicted that earnings have slowed and we are likely to see flat earnings growth rates the next few quarters (after predicting 4-7% earnings growth earlier in the year). We suspect that at some point with Inflation staying elevated and the Fed continuing to raise rates aggressively while selling their bond holdings (and liquidating their balance sheet to contract money supply), there will be increasing pressure on earnings.
Earnings will contract as the economy slows down, as consumer demand is destroyed from higher borrowing costs and much higher consumer prices (food, energy, goods, and services). We would go out on a limb and suggest that with heating costs doubling or tripling this winter, we will see a dramatic slowdown in consumer spending in the next few months.
We have given ranges for earnings in the past few Market Outlooks. Through a friend and market expert of ours, Decision Point, we offer you the following chart to show the ranges of earnings and the effect it would have on the S&P 500. If you look closely, they have offered up 3 targets based on earnings expectations or possible disappointments. The high mid and low estimates on the S&P 500 for 2023 are as follows: 3845, 2884 and 1923, respectively. Other than the high estimate a little above where we currently reside, the other estimates are substantial drops which might come.
We take no ownership in how accurate these projections may turn out. MarketGauge has built long-term successful quant-algo based investment strategies that are unique, adaptive and have produced investment returns well above their respective benchmarks over time.
This is getting old.
Starting in 2020, this decade has seen more 52-week lows on the S&P 500 index in the past two decades ago (2000-2010). We continue to remain underwater for a much longer period than since the great financial crisis of 2008-2009). Only 11% of the time has the market stayed under a negative 20% return this long. See meaningful charts below:
The Real Damage
We know that a lot of the above information is theoretical. Perhaps you are one of our current subscribers and have taken our ongoing guidance to move to cash, use some of our investment strategies which may be using inverse ETFs (short the market), or you are just waiting it out (hopefully you have sought some shelter). If you thought that bonds/fixed income was going to help, they have not. As you know, it has not been pretty in 2022. Please see the chart below:
image
Positive Steps You Can Take With Your Investments:
Click the links below to continue reading the steps you can take with your investments and the bullets and video Big View analysis.
Click here to continue to the FREE analysis and video.
Click here to continue to the PREMIUM analysis and video.
Best wishes for your trading,
Keith Schneider
CEO
MarketGauge
P.S. When you’re ready, here are 3 free ways we can help you reach your trading goals…
Book a call with our Chief Strategy Consultant, Rob Quinn. He can quickly guide you to the resources that you'd like best.
Get the foundational building blocks of many of our strategies from Mish's book, Plant Your Money Tree: A Guide to Building Your Wealth, and accompanying bonus training.
Review quick descriptions of our indicators, strategies, services and trading systems here.
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Post by sd on Oct 17, 2022 5:03:06 GMT -5
10-17-2022
I'm Down 50k + from the Dec 2021 highs- in 2022 in the IRA accounts managed by others-
That's a harsh reality, and a lesson-perhaps-in trusting the pros to get it right-
One account was 6 years old- and - wake up call- the only one making- and keeping- any money was the account manager with the platform fee and his fee of 1.70%- and for a 3rd time in 6 years, the account was almost back to the cash value where it was started- Proverbial roller coaster that the ride ends where it began- Only, this time I instructed the account be put 100% into cash- into a money market fund-
That instruction eliminated the decline and netted a whopping 1.6% annual return for the 6 years of investing-
Regrets- yes that I didn't act sooner- but that's behind me- I'll be Closing that account as will LOLO and moving those funds to TDAmeritrade- where we will seek to manage them ourselves-
Now, the 2nd fund- Edelman Financial Engines- went 50% into cash at my instruction- and has seen large losses- since I started that account in the Fall of last year- I hate the losses, don't like the way the account failed to recognize that the decline was substantial and take a more defensive positioning- Had a couple of rebalances, but not beneficial in that the bond funds are -losing dramatically as opposed to be the "safe" place to store your assets-
I do like the diversification in the portfolio holdings using low cost transparent and trackable ETFs- I intentionally did not interfere in the account earlier-as I want to give the account an opportunity- but it appears likely we are just months away from a recession- and perhaps the wisdom of the design in the account will start to win at that point- Of course the manager continues to get his fee - it just becomes a bit smaller every month -I'll give him the opportunity to see how long the account takes to make a Uturn- and the decision on whether I take back possession of the cash and self manage- or allow them to reinvest it when we have declined even further- I transferred those assets- to Edelman to take the burden of managing a larger account off of my shoulders- mistake in the timing of initiating that at a period when the market was topping was mine. But it seemed just bullish at the time.
Sharing these sour grapes in this blog as a "warning"- that No one else will care as much about your money as You!
One of the investments we did make was to invest a portion of our assets with the 1st manager into an Annuity- While it makes small net gains-about 12%,
it never loses any money, but doesn't keep up with even "Normal" inflation- of 2% - So, it was part of the "sales" to have assets diversified- and that makes perfect sense in the light of what is happening in the markets today for investors ....
OK, got that beef off my chest- Let's get focused on what we own, and - will I have any clear cash in the IB account-? YES- 18k with 17 available-
I plan to focus on trying to profit from market sector/stock weakness by continuing to use inverse funds- Something I wish I had initiated earlier in the year-
Ok, so I'm set to the Long side in the Van accounts with a few stocks- Energy, Value, Dividends- and a few individual spec trades-
If we open in the green today and manage to hold that positive open for a time, it will allow me to assess the long positioning in the Van account, set some higher stops than the prior week's swing low- and see if the energy positions are able to be a good investment even if OIL prices come down-
With 3 hrs to go- Futures in the green-Banks in focus on earnings-
9 AM - FUTURES HOLDING
tHE eod ACCOUNT PERFORMANCE FROM Friday--- loads of RED! Down $600 +/- from the entry costs- $46,977.00 Down on the week!
Today's open- :Futures in the Green! looking for ousm, ousa, AVUV,DBE, to update to today 10-17-
9:41- RISK on rally- Starting long AVXL on the breakout- small partial 50 entry 9:43- $11.70
nOT CHASING THE tECH NAMES -lOOKING FOR
vIEWING Medical devices IHI - Diagnostics- TMO, PKI,A,
Add to a small MRNA position-
Using the 5 min chart to follow price pulling back off the am gap up in IHI,PKI, TMO-
PWR electrical grid co- infrastruccture possible play- I'm entering here- following on the 5 min chart below $129 - a starting 10 share position- stop $123.00 peaked at $129.36 - swing low was $127.95 Setting a buy-stop $129.45- Plan to take a position pwr
PKI- set a buy-stop limit just above the VWAP for a starting 10 share position
Mid day- rally is holding-
Buying VEEV-management software for the healthcare industry $158.02 -
With almost everything in rally mode- today- considering short positions - such as TSLA-up almost 8% today and reports Wednesday- I think there is a strong fundamental reason to believe TSLA is grossly over priced- at it's present valuations- Funny, I never used to consider funnymentals before this year-TSLQ is what I would use- but in order to be correct- you have to own the short when it's pulling back-
Similarly- despite today's rally - the outlook for semis as a group is poor over the near future- - SMH vs SSG-
I'll take some small positionsw in SSG, TSLQ- Notice that SMH is up about +2% today-
Also- why will realestate not suffer in the higher rates? REK- vs XLREkbe
I'll go long Regional banks KRE- $62.75
BRYN @ CNBC 12-1 pointed out the Pacer COWZ ETF- as a "safer" type of dividend position- I'm buying it today -4
I'm expecting this rally-propelled by initial good financial reports from several investment banks - will last for a short term...
Saving some cash for the inverse positions I think will resume trending- based on earnings warnings from some of the companies as they give forward guidance.TSLA, ARKK,SMH,XLRE
@ 1:30- Markets holding in the green!
And- I bought a 100 share position in SOFI- with a limit to add 50 if it drops back to $4.85- Any company that has someone as savvy as Liz Young should do well -even though this is a very speculative financial- losing out on school loan eliminations...It's basing here at the May lows and is potentially going to get some upside here if financials can keep the momentum going.
Positions taken intraday today in the IB account- A mix here of different stocks- AVXL never came back lower where I would have added- Since it's a biotech it potentially could see another day up tomorrow or crash and burn- but it moved solidly higher into the Close-with an 18% pop from yesterday- I entered after it had broken out the range- $11.69
Conservative adds in the IB today- I think these are technically oversold and most are not Tech related- and some border on the value/conservative "safer" side-
AEHR,AVXL,COWZ,IHI,KRE,MRNA,PKI,SOFI,VEEV
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Post by sd on Oct 18, 2022 7:41:56 GMT -5
10-18-2022
FUTURES Solidly in the GREEN! Indexes up above +2% !-1 hr before the open...
Earnings week continues- TSLA tomorrow After the Close-
Future guidance - where is it leading? Because the Job market has held up so well, it bodes well for the prospects of a softer landing ....albeit at a higher inflation rate than the Fed's desired 2% -
ARKK should benefit from TSLA's recent rise higher- Should TSLA disappoint or give conservative guidance Wed pm, I would think the SARK inverse ETF will open significantly higher Thursday from where it is Wed .
I'll watch SARK/ARKK
ARKK has close to 10% of it's position in TSLA.
it's top 10 positions:
Let's see if the $$$ $USD goes a bit lower today- and where Bond yields go -
MSFT doing lay-offs! slowing growth ahead.
orders ready to transmit on spec plays
Yesterday's positions at the close- Not the shorts
Nice open!
Putting in partial position stops under today's lows at the open to net gains on AEHR,AVXL,VEEV, watching MRNA
In the van Accounts- Green in most held positions- - Slight bit of RED in the DBE, PDBC- LNG - Not holding any positions in the inverse funds, but have them included here for tracking purposes.
Inadvertently sold MRNA-in the IB - holding in the Van - as I was setting a stop under today's shallow pullback- the auto fill LMT - and i got distracted- it sold $138.60 for a min or gain on a small position.
10:45 am- Momo is dropping-several partial -take profits stops execute.
In the IB- avxl, aehr LOSING MOMENTUM- AVXL partial stop sells $12.44 - raised remainder stop above entry cost.
Using a slower psar value on the 5 min chart 0.08,0.05. for the final 50% of the trade - This gets the entire entry profitable- Potentially- for a longer hold -perhaps a stop at the 5 min 50 ema. Potentially, selling a portion on a gap high open, following on a fast 5 min chart to lock in some higher gains-
All the indexes were up +2% at the open- Here at 11 am all below +1.5%- so the gains were made at the OPEN- You'd have to be positioned yesterday to see any net progress. Some individual stocks will indeed outperform and gain on the day- but the majority are lessening a bit to pull the indexes lower.
Also- considering VWAP- and perhaps an ATR value 1x, 1.5x,2x on a time frame to establish a longer term stop-loss.
tsla LOSING MOMENTUM- tHIS is a Tell on the market's interpretation of TSLA-
Will take entries -small $1k positions in SARK, TSLQ , SSG now.
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Adding to the SSG, position.
Added AAPL short AAPD
EOD- Appointment tomorrow @ TDAmeritrade .....
The short positions i took today may bite a bit tomorrow-- But i thought it worth taking a bet on the markets recognizing that AAPL, Semis, TSLA is overvalued despite todays rally-
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Post by sd on Oct 19, 2022 7:36:41 GMT -5
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10-19-2022
Futures slightly Red premarket-
Won't get to see the open- Financial interview appointment this am @ TD Ameritrade...on transferring investments accounts from underperforming active managers.
The TD Ameritrade account will allow both Options and inverse trades in IRA accounts-More flexibility than I presently have....
Considering my taking short positions intraday yesterday- Particularly a las Vegas gamble with TSLA- and AAPL- The short semis would seem to be based on where the semis are likely to see continued deterioration- although they have moved above last week's lows....
Gov't is going to be releasing 15 Million barrels of OIL from the SPR - and will look to replenish the SPR -@ significant lows- should oil drop down to $70.00 eventually- OIL is up a bit this am- Nat gas down- Still holding a large % exposure to energy in the Van accounts
-EOD- The meeting at TD Ameritrade went well- We'll be opening trading accounts there- They are merging with Charles Schwab company-
Also viewing Their intelligent ETF portfolios
:https://intelligent-client.schwab.com/sip/#/planRecommendation
intelligent.schwab.com/page/our-approach-to-portfolio-construction
The short positions I took yesterday- TSLA reported and made a slight miss on production- and only slightly sold off after hours-
TSLQ is up about +2% after hours- not asmuch of a sell-off- primarily on valuations- that I expected.
SARK- The short ARKK funds is up 4%+
SSG- short semis is in the Red -2%
AAPD- AAPL short is slightly down
I don't have stops under these - yet-
Real Estate short REK - is a place I will look to get a position when cash clears- @ 7.25% for a mortgage- that's got to kill the real estate market - a potential recession will kill the real estate market-- Check out the uptrending chart- and take a start at the 20 ema on a pullback---
Will ADD to the short positions if they work in my direction.... but be cautious on semis possibly bottoming..
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Post by sd on Oct 20, 2022 8:10:55 GMT -5
10-20-2022
Premarket Futures mixed- Dow in the green, Nas & S&P waffling.
TSLA print premarket $208.00 so the TSLQ short should open in the green- Concerns about MUSK having to sell more TSLA to fund the TWTR trade; as well as a portion of the company's report not meeting expectations- for a very highly priced car company relative to the others-brings into question whether it deserves that high a multiple....
Energy is up in the green- continuing to gain.... ignoring the SPR release-
Won't see the open- IHOP with the granddaughters the priority this am!
Anticipating some volatility -and setting limit orders to add to SSG 30 @ $34.00- presently in the red with 60 @ $37.39 - This is not my usual course of action, to add in to a losing position- but the $34.00 level is within the present base-
Similarly, I will add to my short positions in AAPL- AAPD @ $30.00 and ARKK -SARK @ $59.00 If the stocks rally higher-
Overall, thgis is due to my belief that tech particularly is still considered to be highly priced, and the market wants to grind the PEs lower in face of the expected rising rates we can expect from the FED for the next quarters projected through mid 2023....
Midday- returned to find the SSG add order filled- but a tech sector rally is supporting the SMH- So, I'm down about $150.00 on this one trade- 90 shares avg cost now $36.27 present price is $33.92 - setting a stop-loss below today's swing low @ $33.50 -so I'll see a substantial loss if this executes.
Loss $2.77 x 90.00 = -$250.00.
tHIS EXPERIMENT MAY clearly not work out in my favor- The assumption I made is that the earlier higher price action in SMH was the potential top in price action-
and so, the Low made in SSG this am should hold-potentially.
MIDDAY- SARK trade stopped out for a net small gain on a raised stop- Markets turning into the RED- SSG trade losing less midday- moving towards turning positive- Opportunity to raise my wide stop-loss to a tighter-and smaller- loss-
Dbld the TSLQ position-
SARK hit my tightened stop earlier- by a few pennies! just bought back 25 $64.68 1:50 pm.
As an Edelman Financial Engines video shows - Trying to get positioned in the best winning asset classes (16) shows how those different assets performed over the prior decade:
Broadly invested- Strategic rebalancing. Adapt to current market conditions-
The point of the avbove chart is to be broadly diversified because you never know what will be the winning market sectors- and by having a wide exposure, you lower Risk and and get the net "Average"
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Post by sd on Oct 21, 2022 8:22:52 GMT -5
10-21-2022
Futures were in the RED! Now they are turning green 30 min before the open. Yesterday's bullish start rolled over- Still holding my short positions- and with some free cash here today- but will have to raise stops on the shorts- potentially do not want to get whipsawed, for a loss, but hoped to see an open in the RED- doesn't look to be in the cartds...
Yields are up- Bonds declining further- Bad for stocks...
SSG sold 50 @ open-SARK covered- No activity in SSG-
Taking some losses across the short positions- TSLA short in the money and in the green- ELON will likely have to dump more shares to fund TWTR buy.
Initial order to build a position in the Short real estate- Filled 50 limit $22.17- Have an additional limit to buy 50 lower @ $21.90.
Nice continued up move in AEHR- a position taken in the IB $16.84-
Net losses today -$150.00+ in the short sells-
TSLA short stops out for a gain
Markets making gains today!
Energy gaining-
Nuclear gaining CCJ gaining- Nice move up from where I purchased on the gap down! buying 200 URA in the van accounts.
Added to the Value accounts.
EOD- Big market Rally! Market interprets all the pundits suggesting that the FED needs to ease up on rates...Dollar turned lower after hitting 114.
Short positions turned to bite me as they all became net turn south- managed to make a little on the TSLA & SARK, and lose more on the others...
Despite the net losses, AEHR made an 11% pop higher today- allowing the account to Close up on the Day with a net -$59 loss on the day's price action.
THE IB - $19,209.00 EOW wEEK. Positioned to be on the short side was the wrong side!
The Van $48,688.00 EOW.
Total: $67,897.00
YTD:YTD Going baCK to the start:
"SD's 2022 start:$18,078 + $43,742 = $61,820.00"
This Week $67,897.00
2022 start $61,820.00
Net gain $6077 /61,820 = YTD +9.8% Not too shabby - at least on the upswing!
Todays rally surge put the indexes in positive territory for the week-
last week the combined average of the indexes was down ytd -14.58 the week before -17.58%
Copy and pasting the 1st week's index performances:1 week index performance : DIA start 364.34 ; SPY 476.30 -; QQQ $399.05
DIA 364.34 -310.88 = -53.46 = -14.67 %
SPY 476.30 -374.29 = -102.01 = -21.42 %
QQQ 399.05 -275.42 = -123.63 = -31.00 %
Combined 3 index average - =- -36.39/3 = -12.13% so this is a major net % gain in the indexes of +5% over the past week!
My relative performance differential was positive last week +21.33%
This week the net performance difference is about the same 12.13 + 9.8% 21.93 - for a slight fractional gain
What is important to note is that the markets closed higher and I also closed higher-
Making an off the cuff observation concerning my own attempt to perform this year, in this market-
As I have become a more tactical trader, it seems to have benefitted my overall performance in this choppy volatility-
Although not knocking the cover off the ball with relatively conservatively sized positions, I've reduced my losses.
By using a higher expectation for the trade to perform in my favor, stops based on the tighter time frame charts has gained a bit more profits when hit
Also, the approach of selling a portion of a winner has seemed to smooth out the net equity as well- and that also includes having the qwillingness to get back into a winning move-even if whipsawed out previously.
ALL of that said- and it seems to have been good for the near term- it;s important to be able to allow a portion of a winning trade room to run further than you anticipate-
Being flexible- and not too stubbornly locked into your personal bias
Trade with the charts- With the TIDE- When it reverses- go with it...
Trade smaller in the chop. reduce your position size .
Use stops! Bullish days like today makes you think all is well for the near term at least- Perhaps this time is it- but watch the resistance levels from June.
Here in earnings season- a single bad story can sour the markets.
And, While it is fun to be engaged and active- over the long term, a well managed investment account will likely outperform- even though it rides the market up and down...And- if I am positioned 100% in one direction and get stopped out-I cannot jump into the winning positions because I have to wait several days for the cash to clear to be allowed to trade. So- consider a 5% upside day like today- unless one had some cash freed up, you were locked out ontoday's bullish reveersal.
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Post by sd on Oct 21, 2022 19:14:41 GMT -5
IB trades past 7 days- 40 trades taken and a few made in the Van funds as well-
I'm highlighting- (YES Cherry Picking) 2 trades made this week- using a faster time frame to follow the price action and my expectations of a continued bullish move higher- Trying to do better at post trades analysis- Minervini approach- The intent is to critique how the trade-as presented by the chart - was managed.
Yes, it was a small speculative position of $1,579.00 - should do this every day to include a sense of the market conditions- a future goal perhaps.
VEEV-a healthcare software stock I had traded previously - Sopme sector strength as healthcare is considered defensive- initial start entry 10-17 @ 12:11 pm 10 ea $157.92
Sold 1/2 5- $161.45 to lock in a small gain- and the remaining 5 $159.66- both small gains, but the stock failed to develop strength to the upside.
Forget that this was a relatively Small $$$ trade- Breakout trades need to work-
Focus on the rationale behind the way it was executed- A "breakout" trade-
Trade was noticed late am looking at breakout stocks - trade taken midday., and it closed sideways, above the prior day's pullback low.
The Entry was based on an upmove breaking out the recent downtrend. accompanied by above average volume incidentally-
The following day, Price had a solid gap up at the open, that failed to get much follow through- I sold a portion of the position as the trade lost upward momentum. As price continued to decline later in the day,each 1 hr bar failing to make a higher close above the prior bar, and failed to rally, I sold the remainder - but gave it an opportunity to make a recovery higher by waiting.
That doesn't mean that this is a dead future trade- It is setting uip in a sideways base higher than the prior swing low- but there may be many better and easier trades to focus on that are already uptrending - A breakout/Close above $159.00 offers a potential 20% upmove to $175.00 However, the market has presented us better winning and trending trades.
AEHR is another example of a trade taken earlier in the week, that worked out to perform as anticipated- A partial stop-loss to lock in a small gain was in place if price declined, but it did not get executed- The trade has moved up strongly today-
What is the notable immediate difference between this and the prior trade?
That's right- this trade is actually uptrending - above it's 200 ema- and not downtrending- so it's already a higher probability trade to achieve success-
But it's been in a basing pattern within a n uptrending move since August!
However, the stock came to my attention as a breakout trade- I wasn't following it before the day I entered.
Entry 50 AEHR $16.82 10-17 38 seconds before the Close.
Trade immediatly gapped higher the next day. Raised a partial stop to sell 1/2- Was not touched-
Trade goes higher- partial stop 1/2 raised to lock in a nice $gain on 1/2 the position with a lower stop at the next level down-
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Post by sd on Oct 22, 2022 18:14:26 GMT -5
This weekend I am comparing investments that we have with 2 "professional " managers- One just initiated a year ago, and another 6 years old.
With one manager we have been with for 6 years, The accounts that were invested through an institutional fund- EQIS- with a net 1.70% expense ratio
have cycled essentially correllated with the market flow-- going up as the market rises, but declining back to net 0 gains when the market declines-
The difference is, the market declines- but it never fully loses back to the point of where it would have started.
While it seems a bit of a chore to do this type of comparison, it is wortgh while to do so...
Here's a letter I sent mid September explaining the rationale to go to cash to at least protect some gains in the face of what would obviously be a further market decline:
I'm requesting that you place my Eqis account into a money market fund. Lois will also make the same request- I believe we are heading into a deeper recession- and sitting in cash and not fighting the Fed -and not giving back the remainder of the slim profits .
The Eqis accounts started in late 2016.
Following 6 years of Eqis management- My account has an average 6 year return today of just 1.5% as of yesterday $4,992.00,
and as can be seen from the value comparison chart-
Eqis has previously given up all net gains in 2019, 2020-
Comparatively, the S&P -if invested at that same time- has clearly outperformed significantly on the upside, and never has given up all gains.- I know you said that you don't benchmark against the S&P ,
but the attached chart shows the S&P performance compared on a relative basis to the Eqis account.
And, Frankly the combined management fees now exceed my present gains for 6 years.-
While not expressed as eloquently as I had intended- The basic concept is simple- If an Advisor tells you that you need to be invested in a diversified portfolio to reduce market volatility Risk- But the Risky S&P is able to retain some gains during pullbacks, and yet ultimately move higher - and yet the adviser's portfolio cannot retain any of the gains- but gives up virtually 100% - on every market pullback, and is unable to make any headway.
Which investment is actually Riskier? Obviously the adviser investment that fails to retain gains, cannot beat even moderate 2% prior inflation, much less
the higher inflation seen in the past 1.5 years!
At the time in mid September this chart screenshot was taken- The S&P was actually UP over the 6 years by 142 points- or a net 6 year gain just over 100% !!!! SPY was at $191.96 in the start 11-2016.
At the time of this screenshot, the SPY was down -17% on the year- but is up +95% over the 6 years., over a +15% /year average.
It seems that the reliance of both portfolios on the bond component to take up slack and losses in the markets in stocks has failed to deliver-
This is an unusual period when the stocks AND the Bonds decline in lockstep. This is a mammoth outsized- black swan event for bonds on a historical basis.
The advisors will tell you that this is an anomoly- and on the outside limits of their models that are meant to average out such occurrences over a longer term holding period-
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Post by sd on Oct 24, 2022 6:11:23 GMT -5
Lost my connection thisMonday am
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