SD - 2022 - A YEAR TO LOSE LESS AND TO KEEP MORE !

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So much information available, so few dollars, so many choices!

Using top-down Sector performance approach-
This link is to a Barcharts.com Webinar
www.barchart.com/education/webinars/51/using-sector-analysis-to-find-trading-candidates

Predictive weather trends affecting commodities & crops?
www.climatepredict.com
www.youtube.com/watch?v=oADl9F9ptHw


As we've learned in 2022- Treasuries inverted; 2 yr/10 yr- with the 2 year yield higher than the 10 yr-
As the Yield goes higher- The treasury bond value falls lower.
The $TNX chart is the Yield for the 10 year-
Tom Bowley at Earnings beat in July wrote an article with charts--
As we know, the markets put in a June rally, the yield dropped lower at the same time-and the markets then rolled over again to make a new low while Yields went on to make a new high.



Earnings Beat:also offers a free weekly newsletter- and a subscription service. -I get the free newsletter.





While the bond yield was dropping, the market began to set up for the June rally - Worth taking note of- As the yields turned back up, the rally lost momentum-
So it's not a 100% direct correlation- but it certainly is worth watching how the 2 interact on the dance floor-

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10-24-2022
got on the correct thread page -finally-
Futures look to be in the green - I plan to go long with free cash in all accounts-
Tsla had to cut prices in China reportedly- I will consider getting back into TSLQ to short Tsla.
Also, I expect that Real Estate is going to continue to have serious further declines- Looking for REK to provide inverse profits there.
LONG DIG< URA<AEHR in the IB-

Since futures are already extended at this hour- it tells that we will have a gap high open- unless they decline in the next couple of hours- So buy-stops with limits are ideal to get price on :a breakout above a level- Or - on a pullback from a higher open and the limit gets filled
A few days left -until Oct 28 to invest in the IBond at a historically high rate We will be doing so today -locking in a very high 9.62 APR for 6 months and a somewhat lower 6 +% for the next 6 months- so the actual annual return on a fixed and Safe investment will be about 7% for a year. Limited to $10K per person- but this is a good way-in face of an upcoming recession- to lock in some guaranteed gains in monies in a savings account- Also we're using this for starting the grandkids individual funds for 2023--

www.treasurydirect.gov/RS/UN-AccountCreate.do

AEHR makes test equipment used to test SIC chips primarily in the Auto industry- It held up well in the sell-offs in semis- but as this article from the Fool suggests- it is potentially expensive on valuation, but has a good niche market at present-
www.fool.com/investing/2022/10/21/chip-company-making-dough-from-electric-vehicles/?source=eptyholnk0000202&utm_source=yahoo-host&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=article




Mid morning- Tech weak. I think even the large cap FANGS are going to struggle.
Filled on TSLQ $53.64 on TSLA lowering price of vehicles in China, and the previously missed production -
Added to the REK- short real estate position - bringing it up to a small position

AEHR is holding it's uptrend, pushing higher despite the weakness in Semis. It has over 11% short- so that may be part of the upmove is short covering...and not due to winning fundamentals. I had a push down @ 10 am to $20.44 and buyers stepped in and are pushing it higher. This is an opportunity to keep raising the stop from $19.85- to $20.35 below the swing low today. If that was to execute, it would be a $3.50 gain on the position (50) @ $16.84 for a net + 20% gain-
Presently delivering a strong upbar on the 1 hour chart -

DIG position is making $$$
Added to energy- URA, CCJ and they are presently in the RED- However, I think (Be careful what you "think") that nuclear is going to be an important part of the future desire to get away from fossil fuels-

Taking a gamble on News release that the Gov't is raising security concerns (Tik-Tok) about Chinese influence- Stop @ $127.90- It appears I will be taking a loss as the market didn't push this any further. Meta's fundamentals look poor, and if this dopesn't bounce on that bit of news, I expect to take a loss of $80.00 on 20 shares...

Did this in the VAN account- where the remainder of my positions are mostly conservative-

META getting trash talked midday- MR wonderful sellsw at a loss----so , no support on CNBC- likely this turns lower- raising stops



META had a swing low pullback @ 11:10 am , but held above the VWAP & the 30 ema ; went a bit higher and a higher slight pullback /base, and this 1pm pushing higher despite all of the bearish CNBC commentary- Perhaps the idea that TIkTOK could indeed get banned by the US supports the higher move-
This has allowed me to reduce my potential loss to about $2 on the trade , and I'll potentially split the position with an eye to sell 1/2 if it manages to make a higher run this afternoon, and ideally get my stop back to break even.

I'm raising the stop to $130.50 - below that 30 ema - A fast PSAR sell was generated on this last bar @ 1:00 pm


sTOPPED OUT ON A RAISED STOPS AND DROP IN BUYING MOMENTUM- Reduced the net loss to $30.00 versus $80.00 initial stop had presented.


cHINESE RESTRICTIVE POLICIES TANKING CHINESE STOCKS & COMPANIES RELIANT ON opening up gambling, semis. etc and likely chinese retail- incl TSLA.

A 6 day hold in AEHR has continued to work- present stop raised to net a +24% gain - and still giving the uptrend a bit of room for volatility.


Meant to split the stop in AEHR to 2 different levels, 25 shares each- The autofill feature in IB changed the stop to a limit sell - which executed at $21.86 - not intended, but netted a 29% gain on a small position. Still holding the remaining 25 shares at the wider stop level- As is often the case, the desire to allow a winning trade room to run higher sees a bigger win becoming a modest % win on a price drop - Wish this had been a larger position, but it is what it is..



Bond Yield reversal supporting stocks IEF chart - up +1.36%!

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ok, IF YOU'RE BROWSING THIS BLOG- You're at least curious about how other people trade... Good for you- All too often we get tunnel vision. Do what we are most comfortable with- Getting some ideas from other people's methods that may be different than your own - perhaps not such a bad idea, particularly if what you're applying isn't working as well as you'd like. This stuff is actually a bit more work than it used to be when everything was going higher-
I wish I was more disciplined- I typically at least try to do the daily blog- but I often do not do much in follow up post trade-post day in depth analysis.
Something I should do daily to reinforce what I did well, and to recognize what I was sloppy at - or careless- or complacent-
Room for improvement there to keep myself on point- and not allow complacency to draw me astray-

Check out this video from a top producer trader at SMB for 2 consecutive years- While you and I may not aspire to be that intense and focus on day trading- I don't- primarily swing trading is my goal - but he talks about his process, keeping up with a daily report card, and doing the post trade analysis-
And talks about goal setting- and making very specific goals- insteadd of saying I want to make a lot more money- or I want to do better in trading- narrow the goals down- get specific- and as he pointed out- don't try to focus on 3 or 4 goals- tackle one at a time-
Check this guy Lance out- and realize he made over a Million dollars + in profits-several years in a row- but he did a lot of diligent homework and self analysis to be able to rise to that high a level of performance- one step at a time.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=x7jF94BNhqY

Watch some of the training videos SMB has available- and their sessions with their traders- FREE- I guess there's a lot of other stuff out there- but SMB is trying to develop traders that become big winners with consistent approaches- It's more about our psychology than it is being presented with the right trading methods- that often needs to be tweaked- or perhaps revamped... and it takes a long time to be willing to admit that there may be some validity in that.

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My Edelman Rep is really a stand-up kind of Guy- I like the Guy personally, and he represents his company well! Unfortunately, We had just started the new accounts with Edelman just a year ago- as the market was reaching an all-time peak- That was my decision at the time- I wanted to unburden myself of the responsibility of handling that larger combined accounts and felt that it would best be done by a professional firm.
Unfortunately 2022 came along- and potentially I would have lost some money-10% / but a relatively small amount- and would had mostly shifted into cash - likely that wouldaq-coulda-shopulda would have saved some 30-40 K from evaporating in the market decline- but i hesitated because I had 2 professional firms managing different buckets of money for a fee- both about 1.70%/year Here's the nice truth about being the management company- You have No skin in the game- You do not have any of your money at Risk- Only the client's money is at Risk , and if he loses and the account declines- we still make money- just a bit less.
That's the Hard Truth Reality-
I still haven't ever heard a word from Capitol Financial - the firm that managed my money in an Eqis account for 6 years- I had called and the adviser was not available- actually having surgery that week- and i wrote them requesting the account go into cash because it was heading back to net $0.00 gains for 6 years of investing prowess. I never heard a whisper back- After a month, I then wrote them advising I would be removing my funds from them- and again- only silence- and no response at all. Pathetic customer service IMO. to not even call to have that difficult discussion hearing my disappointments about the accounts performance-

On the contrary , the Edelman rep did call today in response to my email this past Friday-
Like I said- He's a stand up kind of Guy despite what the markets have done to my account under his umbrella- Not bhis fault personally, he's limited by the mandates of their approach that did not include the unusual event- Black Swan perhaps- of bonds dropping so fast along with stocks!

He and i previously had a discussion earlier this past September where I thought the Fed would be raising rates 75 pts as had been
forecasted by some- and I requested that he (Belatedly) sell off 50% of the accounts we had started and put that into cash- That move into cash saved a potential deeper loss of $15-$20k - 2 Roth accounts 100% into cash, and 50% of the IRA account they manage into cash.
I liked the Edelman low cost ETF approach and transparency- and I still think it likely is an excellent long term investment model- I also think it will take years to recover Unfortunately, I iniitated the accounts right at a market high- and -after the fact- found that their model revbalancing corresponds to varience between the stock component and the bond component- i had assumed it was a more robust model that would rebalance and seek out better performers and reduce losing performers- WRONG- So, in abdicating my personal responsibility because of the "pressure" of self managing my life's savings- I saw a net loss over $50K across the various accounts- in a very short period- 9 months- That negates years of work, setting aside retirement funds- and a whole lot of investment returns over the years, inside a very short window of less than 1 year!
Time to STEP up

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10-25-2022 futures in the RED slightly premarket

Got a notice from GS that the Capital Financial accounts have been transferred OUT of the EQIS account- They charged a FEE of over $300 in both accounts for both LOLO and I to leave!

I think we may rally, going into elections- as is typical- but perhaps we see the future guidance more bearish- but earnings have been coming in relatively decent with about 50% meeting expectations- However, best to plan to err on the cautious side.

As I will also transfer IRA & ROTH funds- into TD Ameritrade- and likely open a smaller Tasty Trade account- I'll be taking on some greater responsibility of managing more of our net assets- So- a portion will be investments - value and perhaps dividend oriented...
Also, select ETFs that may see a shift away from the large cap focus that overweights a few huge companies-
My premise there is that many companies have long been beaten down in this market- So -perhaps a RSP- Equal weight RSP= S&P RYT= Ew Tech
The lesser volatility in the EW may make for a less volatile positioning- and with substantial upside in a rally.
The Tech:

The S&P

Watching AEHR into the open as well as TSLA short position- Expecting a lot of volatility with TSLA-as I am holding TSLQ inverse ....presently in the red-

Seeing what the 30 minutes brings out for trend direction


lOOKING AT pwr
bUYING $139.85-tARGET THE PRIOR HIGH RANGE $147.00

tTSLQ- Took a relatively Large LOSS of - $150 in TSLQ- had to bail out on today's positive TSLA price action- The "Price" of having a BIAS....


Long RSP in the VAN account -Had to chase a bit 30 @ $135.68.
KWEB- not a position- Big gap drop yesterday on China's XI policy - not trading this-

AEHR gaining another 3% today!
Taking a small 10 share position in UPS on a market beat on earningss $173.00 a reasonavble stop on this expectation is $166.00
i.imgur.com/gzQdGwF.png
REK short realestate- taking the smaller loss on it - Again common sense tells me real estate is going to be going lower in the months ahead with rising rates and unaffordability- Market disagrees
URA position working + ; DIG +

Notice something we haven't seen much of lately ? Look at all this GREEN!

Putting remaining 6k free cash into 25 RYT- The Tech EQ WT. in the IB-


AEHR FINDING RESISTANCE @ $23.00- i ARBITRARILY selected to follow the price action with a wide stop just a bit below the 50 ema on this 10 min time frame- I sold 1/2 accidentally yesterday $21.86 as I adjusted split stops- Notice that the psar stop is much closer- orange dots $22.22
Worth mentioning- that psar will vary as one uses different time frames-


Yesterday took a Flyer on META- and took a small loss- No longer a position- just played on momo yesterday- could not hold the position as it pulled back
Today it is managing to try to move higher- but this is a broken stock- Not where I will put any investment dollars into-


Following AEHR with stops beig raised - seeming some price weakness, loss of momentum mid day


Stopped out 1:07 on price weakness. $21.85- almost identical to yesterday's accidental limit sell - Nice 28% -29% well executed trade held over 7 days .

The daily giving a topping tail mid day. but will this turn out just to be intraday volatility??? Does Price go higher?


Retail breaking out higher- AEO,ANF,BURL etc.

EOD- Markets end up higher- MY TD Ameritrade was partially funded, and I started some value focused positions-
Right at the close I took a gamble and bought 10 shares of GOOG as a spur of the moment buy -knowing earnings was coming- and they miss and guide lower- Same with MSFT- Misses Guide Lower.
I will assume that the misses by MSFT, GOOG set the tone for AMZN, and potentially AAPL. Does not sit well for Tech in general- I also bought some more value funds- VTV,SCHD,AVUV in that account- Watch out below for the tech positions however-

JP MOrgan lowers it's estimate for the S&P earnings taking it down from prior higher estimates. Expectations that the FED will eventually make a pivot in policy- but tha will be some time down the road...

ENPH- in the EV charging space- Nice upmove from a base today-

Markets outperformed me today! barely nudged a small step higher- offset by the losses I took.

So, one analyst after hours believes the TECH sector is under more pressure with the miss by MSFT^ & GOOG-
I intentionally took an investment today in Equal Weight Tech- thinking it has already been thoroughly trashed- but I have to protect that late pm entry with a stop- and the best counter trade to that is perhaps QID- the tech sector short- I will look to add QID as a position in the AM-
Undoubtedly QID will have a gap open- the question is whether the selling in QQQ will continue later into the day-

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10-26--2022 Futures Flat- MSFT and GOOG disappoint on earnings- setting a negative tone for TECH today!
Future guidance suggests continued slowing-
I bought a small GOOG position yesterday ahead of the market Close -in the TD account- and will be a seller this am and take a 6% + loss-
I know that going long into earnings is a real crap shoot- roulette wheel spin- I also bought some value and Equal WT tech positions- -
I think Tech -as seen in the valuations for the big names are going to reset lower- QID is a position I will take today - inverse- and likely look to add a SARK inverse position specifically targeting the previously high flying exponential tech- Both will be relatively small positions -$1,500 ea with a close eye on where they open.

So , Here is SARK- shorts the ARKk fund- and QID- shorts large cap Tech- QQQ on a performance chart for 2022-
Essentially, they move in tandem, but the SARK is more focused on the narrower ARKK . Notice that these have both been very volatile in 2022- and should be used as trades and not investments.

So, let's add in the underlying - ARKK, and QQQ in the same chart: As we all painfully know, Tech has taken it hard this year.

Notice the much deeper decline in the ARKK funds versus the QQQ - ARKK has lost 100% more value than the QQQ's - 30% vs -60%



I will add in the Equal weight Tech RYT as I took a new position in it yesterday in that same chart. As can be seen, the RYT has slightly performed better than large cap market weighted Tech- QQQ by about 4%- again they work in tandem .


I likely will start with QID using a limit order to Buy just above the premarket price-
Heres a look at the Price Action since August- So tech has been rallying the past 3 weeks- this may just be a short term trade- with the entry stop under QID's lows- Will also again look at semis- SSG


Had to cover for a loss SSG & QID- Sure got that wrong!
Certainly seems to suggest that the markets may be able to shake off bad news in Tech!
This caused me to reverse my thinking obviously.

AEHR ripping higher today -without me! Dbl top perhaps?

Net losses in my guessing where markets were heading with the short positions- losses there offset by gains in the other positions-
I took a few bullish positions yesterday in the TD account- Put about 1/3 in yesterday- doubling the position sizes this am as the rally picks up steam-
Actually went all-in in a diversified positioning- Small tech exposure- focused on value, and equal weight -
Today's reversal from the Tech side suggests that this may be a lot of retail buying thinking all is well znd time to get long- I think we may continue to see a bit of upside here - I'm betting on it- Put all 50K+ in yesterday & today in the TD account- However, I'll be settting stops under those higher Risk-smaller positions-
I have other retirement funds to transfer yet-
tHE van ACCOUNT BROKE 50K EARLIER TODAY- Wahoo!- Then dropped $`1,000 on RMD withdrawal and taxes. Still, nice to see some bullish upside-

Midafternoon- The Green is fading... Nas falling into the red -1.75%... Certainly looked strong earlier though! I think that is a reflection on the investor willing to believe the Fed won't stay with the 75 pt hike increase after increase- That the Fed will listen to the calmer voices that suggest 75- perhaps another 50- then- a 25 or even a pause- as we gointo 2023 -and a likely recession across many market segments- The strength in the employment market - suggests that the market has more underlying strength .....and perhaps knows harder times are indeed ahead, but believes they will be short lived...

At the EOD- I put a lot of $$$ to work in TD- in a wide mix of funds- Will see some pullbacks here I think- and that's designed to be more of an investment account- but I'll have to ease into setting stops with a bit more leeway....

META earnings report failed to inspire- at least in the after hours-
AAPL reports tomorrow- That will be the big One ... AAPL has been the tech markets anchor- with a bit of weakness today- but how strong a report will it present???

FCG nat gas hit my raised stop in the Van accounts-
Transferring both Roth and IRA accounts from EDELMAN to separate self managed accounts in TD Ameritrade. Kept a partial IRA account in Edelman - I had them go 50% into cash in September, and that unfortunately turned out to be the smarter belated call to action- At this point, The majority of the account damage has been done -and so I left that partial active position account to ultimately recover - hopefully sooner than later- but I can also use it as a "benchmark" for how well I can manage the self managed accounts-

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10-27-2022

META big sell-off on earnings!
Futures mixed- Dow up large, Nas slightly in the Red-
No comments this am- having to correct a review I made of my prior adviser this am


Lance- SMB- Expected value video-
www.youtube.com/watch?v=D1vnWZyEB30

SMB- Getting clarity on the different types of trades- rules by which to get more consistency-
What is the type of trade you are planning?
www.youtube.com/watch?v=A3vVLJ0JIBU

late afternoon- small positions QID and AAPD- about 2K in the 2 positions- AAPL reports tonight- If it doesn't beat, Tech goes down lower -
AAPL- as remarkable company as it is , is still very highly valued...it's down today ahead of earnings
Small bet on the short side- Risk vs possible reward is low - Tech sector momentum is already heading down.

AEHR exit proved to be timely as it dropped lower today after making 2 topping tails the prior 2 days.
Drill down into this starting with a daily chart .
I will consider a trade on the Long side - if price can move back above the high of today with a buy-stop and a tighter stop-loss .



Amazon- big miss -drops -15% in the after hours-Bad future guidance-
AAPL actually made some Beats, but came in light and below estimates in service segments- AAPL barely down after hours. Guidance is cautious-
I think it will open lower tomorrow but not dramatically so.

Something of a mixed day in the markets- Staying clear of Tech- except I did start a small TECH Equal weight in the TD account- The difference is that the big 5 Tech companies of the QQQ that are being sold off so hard- are not overweighted in the index- so, the negative impact is less and the
other tech companies are on equal footing - and many of them were already sold off previously and are now at more reasonable valuations-
That should happen to AAPL- instead of a lofty 24x pe - why not see a 18x PE as reasonable with slowing growth in the face of a global recession.


Jason Leavitt - talks about his learning experience and his trading course-
If you've got some time to spend- give this a viewing. He really hones in on what makes for a successful trader -
If you are reading this- You are on this site looking for something-
Watch this video a few times.- Don't be impatient- watch how he uses the indicators to support his market thesis....
www.youtube.com/watch?v=BBHzXG9Eicw

[sd]

10-28-2022

S&P & Dow futures slightly Red- the Nasdaq more so-
following yesterdays earnings misses-large cap tech looks to be overpriced going into the 4th quarter-
AAPL did have a few shortcomings- but appeared to meet earnings- but questions remain on it's future sales into a slowing economy- particularly in China as isolation lockdowns continue there in an effort for them to fight covid-
Presently Lolo and I both have small short positions in QID and AAPD with stops under their lows made yesterday. We'll see how those work out today- AAPL- presently has a 24x PE

Inflation report this am will give the markets a new data point on which to estimate the Fed policy rate approach- in just a few minutes.

Inflation appears to continue to be moderating some- Should give support to the Fed slowing a bit....Markets sometimes read and interpret what they want----

AEHR- Why did it drop yesterday? Back to the ema is periodically normal- the DOJI looks positive for a possible trend continuation following this pullback- Nasdaq sector is weak- this small cap stock is highly priced according to this Fool article-
www.fool.com/investing/2022/10/21/chip-company-making-dough-from-electric-vehicles/?source=eptyholnk0000202&utm_source=yahoo-host&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=article
The SMH chip sector has been trying to rally the past 2 weeks- Sector has been seriously sold off, and the AEHR breakout higher coincides with an upmove in the SMH over the past weeks-
AEHR has been above it's 200 ema for a few months-
I'll put this on my watchlist -
Interesting that META is up premarket-

Exxon misses on earnings....
PXD beat- a position. -
Does Energy sector continue-to outperform- or will we see a rotation into some oversold sectors?
The equal weight Tech is an investment position in TD -RYT - mitigates the big losses from the mega caps.
Going over psar scans- MUSA- 18% earnings beat Wed saw a price gap up-
Will see - buy-stop AEHR using the decling 30 min psar -as an entry guide- $21.20 buy-stop lmt $21.40

Filled on the up move- will add to the position if it can exceed the swing high as it pulls back in the 1st 30 minutes.


In a losing position in AN- saw a positive interview with the CEO this week- jumped into it early today- Stop set in the low part of the weeks base- It will be a $100.00 loser if stock gets hit on 20 shares.



Sold the AAPD short AAPL for a loss-QID tech short is also in the RED -So this says a lot about the market likely feeling the Tech sell-off is overdone.
TSLA is a bit lower .
Well, market has spoken- Buying AAPL here @ $154.83 in the Van account - stop will be $143.90 - below the yesterday swing low.

Energy positions are losing today- stops being triggered- Think that the markets are taking some profits here and going after the beaten down Tech sector.

I'm taking a hit in the IB account with a number of my recent trades-Particularly the inverse attempts- - This just goes to point out that even when you think there is a logical reason to take the trade- Tech misses on Earnings big time and forward guidance is poor- So the rationale to be in QID expecting more tech selling today simply got stopped out as the markets took the initiative to reverse and BUY- Had AAPL missed on earnings, it would have pushed the Tech sell-off accellerator.
Even the sell-off in semis- SMH -has essentially rallied for 2 weeks-
What will knock these off this perch?
I added to my value positions today with some unsecured funds that have not settled out-
Bought the IWD - Russel 1,000 value- and I think having a core portfolio with value is the right place to be.

Feels like Energy is setting up for a swing lower- HDV is a dividend fund that outperformed many such funds as it has a large % of energy companies-in it's portfolios , where many other diovidend funds excluded energy companies-

Bof A analyst on CNBC still thinks AAPL should drop lower- particularly in the next quarter- suggesting a $120.00 valuation.

Jason Leavitt @ 1:45 in this video shows how he uses Finviz to find best sector, strong groups, drill down in the industry groups-
Also barcharts..
www.youtube.com/watch?v=BBHzXG9Eicw

After watching Jason's in depth video of some of his process, and after seeing prior videos on trades taken in Youtube, I signed up for a Monthly subscription $99.00 that also comes with a 2 week free trial-
Here's the video link of what to expect if you joined their site @ Leavittbrothers.com
www.leavittbrothers.com/videos/welcomevideo.cfm


OK, Trying to do a windows update here mid afternoon-

AEHR trade that filled earlier, moved higher and my add order was filled - I increased the position size from 50 shares to +25 more-using a higher price point to addin the 25 shares.


Big upside rally across the indexes- Go figure!
So, the market is ignoring the Tech misses- Dow up +800 pts., Russel +2%, S&P +2.3% $3,890- can we get back to 4200 next week? Nas up over 2% as well @ 3pm.
It was prudent to not let Pride get in the way of getting stops hit on my short attempts!

I am positioned more to the Long and Value side in my other accounts- so benefitting there with todays surprise up move- I had even added long positions earlier in the Van using unsecured funds...
In the new TD account where I had transferred my funds from a pro manager- I put on a large number of investment ideas just this week thinking we're well closer to a bottom. I'm also transferring over more to that account and a TD ROTH account. Ideally I can position these to recover from the losses the pros managed to deliver to the accounts under their care-

The IB account is my -be a bit Riskier arena- I bought SOFI in the AM with a 100 share position @ $5.35 , and have an ADD 100 limit @ $4.82- because it gets moved in the sideways range between $5.60 and $4.80 as an experiment in that type of approach within a defined basing - It would largely seem that SOFI is at a bottom- unless the financials tank next week. Sofi is at a difficult point - with the focus it had on student loans and Biden's proposed legislation to pay off a good portion of that debt...

With my subscription to LeavittBros, I logged in to see Jason's stock picks from the beginning of the week- about a 50% of the stocks acted as he anticipated and would have made it up to their short term targets he estimated- Likely more have made it with oday's bullish price action-
So, I'll be viewing some of his proposed trades- I already tend to view the charts and price very similarly to what he looks for- including the potential for breakouts. However, he is adept at scanning abuilding a prospective list-
There should be many potential follow through trades for next week. %
I also sold some of my energy positions on stops and weakness- XOP,CCJ,URA, & ...

@ the Close- Holding 75 AEHR over the weekend-

THE END OF WEEK RELATIVE PERFORMANCE-: I was incorrect last week - the performance difference was 32.06% compared to the indexes. made that math correction noted in the 10-21- blog entry.
nOT TO GET TOO COMPLICATED , i had to take out $806.00 from the Van IRA -for RMDs- so I will add that figure back in to the Van balance for accuracy $49224 + 806= $50,030
LOSSES BROUGHT DOWN IB : $19,163.00 Glad Pride didn't cause me to hold those shorts!

Combined : $69,193.00 - Booyah! making gains- How much can we keep next week? Last week perfor was YTD +9.8%
last week The relative performance of the indexes was -12.13 the relative difference 21.93%

YTD:YTD Going baCK to the start:
"SD's 2022 start:$18,078 + $43,742 = $61,820.00"
10-28-22 $69,193
Profits $ 7,373 7,373 / 61,820= Net + 11.92 account gain YTD

The indexes put in a strong rally- particularly the Nasdaq making a turnaround today=
Copy and pasting the 1st week's index performances:1 week index performance : DIA start 364.34 ; SPY 476.30 -; QQQ $399.05
DIA 364.34 - 328.58 = -35.76 = - 9.81%
SPY 476.30 - 389.02 = -87.28 = -18.32 %
QQQ 399.05 - 281.22 = -117.83 = -29.52 %

Combined = 57.65% /3 = -19.21 average YTD My net gain this week = 11.92% + 19.21 % == a 31.13 performance difference YTD.

This Exercise combines my 3 accounts- Van Roth, Van IRA, and IB Roth compared total performance to the 3 major indexes to give me a way to judge my overall portfolio performance - to the combined index performance- YTD.

Since many of my positions are intentionally in "Safer" value and dividend etfs- they will ultimately not outperform strong momentum moves if Growth comes back into favor.
Part of this may be seasonality- premarket elections, and investors hopeful and reading the tea leaves for a Fed slowing in the rate hikes and a potential soft landing-
Periodic moves like this favors almost everything- and it can make us complacent-We start to think the bottom may be in-
Wrong to be so trusting...

This week, funds from one previously "professionally " managed account was transferred into a new TD Ameritrade account I will try to manage for better results- $55k and change- and at the EOW am up +2% - Not great stock picking- or ETF picking - just riding the wave of market FOMO -.
Over Wed and Thursday I initiated positions - with the intent to start with a diversified portfolio with a focus on Value--But I included some exposure to the Emerging markets and Europe as well- and inadvertently threw a few dollars at a small QCOM position.
I should have funds from another cancelled professionally managed account transfer in next week- and I will have to put those $$$ to work by increasing to some larger position size- and adding some exposure . The advantage of Funds in the TD account is they allow the IRA to have Options as well as take inverse trades.
I will have to learn the Think or Swim platform- but these positions are taken on their basic platform-

I don't have any illusions about this week's short term success- We may be in a seasonally strong pre election market- but the fundamentals ultimately will come back into play next week , and any further earnings misses may turn the tide- So, Value is in vogue in the near term -
I'm posting a screenshot of my initial portfolio for this 1st week in - Note that it holds a YNDX russian position that was a carryover that I cannot trade- and that is Closed to trading- just another example of why I don't trust them to manage my accounts anymore-
BTW, LOLO- my spouse did exactly the same with her managed accounts-

As Warren Buffet advised:

"Diversification is protection against ignorance. It makes little sense if you know what you are doing." "A lot of great fortunes in the world have been made by owning asinglewonderful business. If you understand the business, you don't need to own very many of them.

But Warren knows how to properly judge the merits of a company- and other than AAPL- has little exposure to TECH-
The Passive investing using ETFS that I think is very smart is that I know i don't have the education - or stomach- to hang a 20% bet on a single company going into earnings, and then get hammered- However, i did Buy some BRKB this week as a way to diversify the value side of my holdings ....However, they don't share the dividends from the companies they hold. BRKB is not the great money maker it once was- but they certainly fill the value component primarily. If you don't get a dividend-however, Why Own the stock? Catching a trade here with BRKB - but - not a long term hold.

This week, the newly funded TD account starting Wed, managed to get a 1.91% return- another 3 weeks like that and we get the typical annual average return before dividends. Positions were sorted by % gains from the highest to the lowest-


Just a note here- we've made a fundamental shift and the large cap tech dominance of the recent years is no longer in favor- and is still a target for lower prices as we go into the 4th qtr, despite this week's pop. Don't be fooled by what seems to be a bottom-
Expect a rally that fades and the markets make a thrust lower-
Sharpen those trailing stops ...

[sd]

Busy Sat taking care of family projects-

Sunday will continue to review portfolio construction and percent of allocations.
Should receive new account funding transfers this week-

The historical returns going into a midyear election have been 100% positive going back to the 1960's? Something like the past 20 elections have been winning periods for the markets- and will this period be able to keep that positive motion- or have we rallied too early, and will get what most think is a 75 pt rate hike from the Fed- Much anticipated.

Have to watch the Nasdaq carefully this week to see where and why it stalls-if it does, and how it affects the other indexes-

Have I mentioned the equal weight ETFs versus the cap weighted to get better performance in this market?

So, instead of 4 or 5 huge companies that make up the destiny of a fund like the QQQ, the RYT only gives those companies an equal weight - This can be worth considering if you are using ETFs in a portfolio- A look back at the QQQ's and RYT from mid July- The blue line that lead higher in July, and is leading higher in October is the RYT- Granted- The large cap Growth mega companies led the markets during the rally from 2020- but this chart is interesting-
The equal weight outperformed from 2016- 2020 - so, we all hold something called recency Bias- it's just that we put more importance on what we have experienced recently- and so considering an optional -but similar fund- may be worth considering- I did take a portfolio position earlier this week in the RYT as giving exposure to Tech overall.


Similarly, let's look at the S&P - SOPY- which is also market cap weighted, and then the RSP.

Alook back to 2015 clearly shows the mega cap weighted SPY has been a long term outperformer-
But, check out the faster time frame look back in this environment of value being recognised over growth with the higher pe's.

The Ewt has been the better performer in 2020- a bit less volatile - offset by some value stocks...


If we toss in large cap value- VTV- into the Mix- it becomes a clearer story



Value declines along with the market- but a bit less- and notice this recovery overy the past 6 weeks - I expect this improved performance will continue into 2023---- and so I tend to overweight the exposures I have to the value segments.

[sd]

Viewing some of the stocks on Leavitt brothers-
AEHR is also on their possible Buy list- but I already got filled Friday. Some other stocks in the same group worth considering-

If Semis are going to get some traction here- The semis equipment makers may be the better bet versus the individual chip names-
Out of the posssible picks- Consider some of these - All are recently in uptrends- I would use buy-stops on an upmove to get filled -
AEHR, AMAT, ASML, KLAC, LRCX--
theme plays- If travel and cruise lines are in play- NCLH, RCL, CCL- and perhaps airlines as well- AAL,DAL,ALK,JBLU,LUV,RYAAY,UAL,SAVE,JBLU- pICK ONE-

TASK- In the information technology group- acn,cdw,ctsh,dxc

sELECTION PROCESS IS TO FIND A STOCK THAT APPEARS LIKE A POTENTIAL TRADE, Go to Finviz, enter the stock name , and select the industry group the stock belongs to- Narrow the group by scanning for stocks within the group with volumes exceeding 1,000,000, and those priced above $10-
Find those in uptrends that are leading the sector broup-

Is it that simple? NO, but that's a good starting point...Compare the best performers within the sector- and select from them and ignore the laggards.

AEHR- just barely holding - now moving higher-
Bought WYNN on the upmove. $63.69 Tilman F bought into it-
Airlines seem to be working- Bought SAVE, JBLU in the IB,
Got funding rolled over in the TD IRA- taking some positions there.- Energy -XLE, OIH larger positions-
Considering partial positions in the funds in this article from September- plus cvx, EOG - All are higher here- can they continue? also Nuclear ? URA?
Better WAIT!
Biden to come on TV suggesting a wind fall profits tax on Energy companies!!!!

[sd]

10-31-2022
Futures in the Red an hour before the open- Fed speaks on WED- labor report Wed-
Last week I sold off XOP, URA as they were declining- likely being sold for profits as others invested in the rally.

I got a mix of different ideas from Jason Leavitt's proposed trades.
He seems to focus on setups for breakouts- and most of his picks had already based -
I compared his industry group picks using Finviz- and then sorted the group by volume over 1 Million shares....and Price over $5.00 to eliminate the small caps-
This generated a list that I could then narrow down to a handful of other charts from the group that looked potential positive-
Don't want those downtrending still- ideally having mad a base, and potentially even a move higher- which sets them out as potential leaders in that group.

You have to ask yourself what is the Theme that supports this Group>>>>
There are industry groups that may be off the beaten path that can/will have stocks that become market recovery leaders-
Is today the day to try to find them? Perhaps- take those that have rallied last week, see how they perform today, Do they hold up in what looks to be a shaky market - likely waiting on the Fed- in limbo here until Wed....

Some of the themes- Airlines, Travel- Airlines have made a decent recovery- never to be an investment- only potential trades
Cruise ships, - NCLH, CCl, RCL
Business software,
retail, medical instruments-
Semi -equipment makers- AEHR,ACLS,AMAT,ASML,KLAC,LRCX- I think these are 'safer' than a bet on chips- although I did buy some QCOM
as it moved higher last week. Showed weakness on Friday though-



AEHR trade headed in my direction today- but mmade a turn and headed lower this pm- Sold 75 $21.32 - stop was higher- above my average cost-
However, the trade made $4 and i'm out.

[sd]

11-1-2022 Premarket 8 am futures in the Green-
Yesterday was a down day overall- in the pm I went out and cut down a 15 year old plum tree that was mostly dead- added it to the woodpile-
Sofi is up decently premarket- $6.16- +.72 never came back lower to activate my lower order. so, perhaps it can actually make a more substantial up move-
Had a better than expected earnings report, added customers....
Fed expectations 75 pts to be announ ced, next hike to be a lower 50 pts, Fed rate top 4.83%- to carry through most of 2023 with a recession still likely in 2023. Shot 0.0 on AEHR-although I had a nice day earlier position- if Semis are gaining- The other equipment makers- may follow through -
I'll take atrade with a buy stop today AMAT- nice consolidation - good well defined entry on the breakout higher-
conversely- consider to start with a partial small position inside the base range - or, use with a limit $86.50 to initiate a partial position at a much lower cost basis. Watch the other eqip mfgs as well- KLAC, LRCX, ASML both nicely uptrending the past week- ASML also basing similar to Amat-
With new funds in the TD ROth
Uber up on news- Buying some LYFT this am - Nice consolidation here. Stop $13.95


Will try AEHR as a quick trade- lower limit $19.60
Adding to SAVE, JBLU with limit orders
Loaded up with small entry positions in the new TD Roth in the Energy space- Mostly starting small positions today as I expect a potential pullback- added a of 10+ names- Ideally these become longer term holds-

AEHR- fortunate I cancelled my split order today to buy AMAT- AEHR tanking lower- -
Best movers today midday - in the IB SOFI +9%, WYNN +5.75%; AN +5%
The 2 airline positions JBLU, SAVE are both flat-

@ 1:30 took a 10 share position $96.97 on a senator suggesting TikTok should be banned in the US- just for fun - spin that roulette wheel- Stop will be trailed using psar on the 10 min time frame- presently $94.41.
We can expect a big market directional move tomorrow- so take your positions today- Any slight implied message that the Fed will come off consecutive 75 pt rate hikes should make the markets believe the rally has room to continue-
If the Fed gets spooked by today's higher jobs report and is determined to stay the hard core 75 pt hikes, the markets are going to reset a bit lower-



The reality is- Do NOT think we are going to go back to the big upside Tech moves of recent years- any time in the near future- Look to the value segment for less Risk- and more upside-

At the EOD- I added a lot of starting positions in Energy names in the TD ROTH- with the intention to add into those inveswtment positions if today's buys go lower-
Spec trades in the IB - SAVE and JBLU look weak -and will likely stop out tomorrow as I have fairly large position #4 on there - and cannot afford to give them room to drop much below where I BOUGHT THEM.
SOFI- was up large % wise but seeing that decline in the after hours- I've got a stop just above my entry- potentially should have taken the earlier gain- or 50% of it ...
Indexes closed slightly in thed RED-

AMD had an earnings miss but did better in the Data center- potentially up after hours.
ABNB down after hours due to future guidance, despite an earnings beat.
Holding that small Meta position in the event the TicTok ban could even be part of any discussion-
My belief is that Energy/oil stocks are still good values- potentially even at these high prices- and so I'm allocating a large position in them in the TD ROTH with a buckshot approach with multiple small entry positions - and the intent to increase those positions beyond the intial entry - We'll see if I get a pullback over the next weeks from where I can increase the position size-

Ultimately, I need to narrow and define the Trading field - by building an Innvesting portfolio - Cannot focus on too many positions ...

[sd]

11-2-2022 Markets cautiously in the RED waiting on the FED-
Likely the future guidance will be hawkish due to the positive jobs reports.

LONG REK- Real estate short.


Moving all stops up tight- Profits available in AN,PWR (stop filled) WYNN, SOFI stop filled for small gain. 2 consecutive small wins on Sofi trades-could have been sold much higher -partials-but failed to take advantage - Have a low limit order to add a new 100 share position $4.82
Moved up stops quickly as the SAVE, JBLU saw a decline below my entry- I adjusted the stops to a few cents belw the 5 min swing low to minimize the losses-
meta stop hit- loss. TEVA -loss?
Entry on the 2 airlines yesterday - not willing to give these much room to the downside- Had a gap down at the Open- cannot trust the 1st 5 minutes- or the 1st 30 minutes for that matter-
Save- 120 shares @ $22.25 stop raised to $21.85 - directly below the swing low open - This makes the Risk if stop executes at stop price of - $.40 or about a $50.00 loss.



IB stops getting hit - taking some pain/losses there-
WYNN only position gaining - I'm using this as a momentum trade to potentially offset some of the losers with a stop I'm raising based on the 5 min chart.
My entry was 25 @ $63.68. stop after the open reversal higher is presently $67.80- using the 5 min 50 ema as a possible wide berth-



RED across all positions in the Van accounts- I had tightened stops in those accounts using a 2 & 4 hr chart - with the goal of locking in some of those recent gains made over the past 2 weeks-
Energy positions and Value being sold off as well-by the markets- Energy may belatedly be the most recent safe Haven finally seeing a lot of inflows -

With the focus on the FED this pm, I'll bide my time in making any further trading selections -unless something jumps out -

from Leavitt brothers site:



The market has never fallen this much while the unemployment rate was under 4%. (chart)
My 2 bits- what my takeaway is for the Fed to not lessen much - and the market reaction to the FED.
Isn't that the issue for Powell though? Strong employment = a strong consumer = strong spending- keeping inflation elevated- Powell's goal is to get inflation under control and the only method he has is to dampen the economy through longer term higher rates- with the labor force eventually taking the hit, diminshing consumer demand , and thus lesser demand will = lower prices = lower inflation. . The recent positive increases in jobs is a negative for Powell's inclination to lessen the rate increases- We will see the impact this pm if he does not give some verbal affirmation to a moderation in the rates as likely in the near future. Markets likely go down lower if they don't hear the word "lessening" in todays release. That's the expectation of the markets- 75 today, 50 next month and perhaps continued 50 into 2023- Give him the opportunity to see the future impact of the rate hikes made in the prior months- We're hearing more about this as companies announce trimming their work force... Soft landing? Not if you get laid off and find a tightened job market.

Since my expectations are bearish on the Fed's tone continuing to be hawkish- because inflation, while coming down, is still relatively high- the Fed is likely to signal several rate hikes @ 75 pts- versus a drop to 50 next month- That will upset the markets- and this present recovery.



wHAT A SLOPPY PRICE CHART!
Check out the difference in viewing the same stock price action through a RENKO chart- A psar BUY signal was generated today- as Price crossed above the declining fast psar . It's been quite a while since I've applied the Renko charts- but I believe they may be ideal in this environment- at least as a way to cross check your interpretation of how a stock is behaving.
If you haven't compared RENKO charts- give them a look - Use the HI-LO setting versus the CLOSE setting to get a view of more of the price swing/volatility
school.stockcharts.com/doku.php?id=chart_analysis:renko
This sample here is a 15 min time frame :

Now, the 1 hour :


I've adjusted my Van Stops using the slower psar on the Renko 1 Hour to net a greater % of the positions- mostly all are in net profitable territory-
Holding AAPL at a loss presently in that account- and wanting to see if it can move higher after the Fed...
2 pm- FED tosses out a bone of sorts- hinted at slowing the rate of hikes in the future- but more hikes are coming.
But while the report initially sent the markets higher on some dovish commentary, it was all reversed as he continued explaining.
I thought we were seeing a rally boost unfold- but Lo and Behold- I jumped in adding to long positions in TD, and even added some Risk trades- and had to flip around on them-

Went into QID - shorting TECH in the TD-
went long financials in a large way - in the TD- but those may hold up relatively well...
Everything has sold off in the IB and I've taken some significant hits in those trades-
Energy seeing DVN drop -13% on earnings- not inspiring there at all!
Van stops being activated-

EOD- Felt like the FED talk whipsawed the markets higher and then yanked the rug out- I jumped into the TD account and added to some existing positions and added a few more-putting some RISK on.. FCG
Losing day in all accounts- even value and energy getting hit. Time to eat some ROLAIDS- as this intraday volatility really made me and then react again!

Gundlach with Scott Wapner is suggesting that there will be a large amount of Tax loss selling yet to happen before the End of year-

Also, he suggests getting into EM when the $USD weakens in 2023...expecting a big pop from that exposure to the EM - But wait for the dollar to go down 1st...

I did put on a small QID position in the TD account-It seems that I get whipsawed everytime I try though...
out of free cash in the IB.
In the Van accounts- now 50% back in cash after stops hit. Still holding positions in VTV, XLE,XOP-FCG- but the rest hit my stops- and make no mistake- I thought the value positions would be "safe' - but these have worked for me and I have gains in them-
He actually delivered the message I thought he would based on the data- but I heard that early schmooze he delivered and didn't wait for the hammer to drop in the later minutes- My mistake- Powell clearly outlined a continued hard line approach for longer than anticipated- kicked the market's optimism to the curb-
The net decline today from yesterday's account values- IB lost -1.9% and is almost all in cash except for a small XLF position.
The Van accounts lost 1.6% with 50 % of the positions still active.
That's in accord with the day's volatility-
The REK and QID positions taken late in the afternoon are an effort to get me positioned for the markets taking us down tomorrow-
I also think that there is little to prompt the markets to rally higher in the next few days in the face of the Fed's hawkish positioning becoming obvious to all and deflating the enthusiasm....
So, QID to short Tech, SDS
for the SPY, REK -real estate- ,SSG the semis etc...SARK for ARKK. SDOW? -the Dow.

What is most vulnerable to a period of higher rates to fight inflation? Small caps ceertainly, as the cost to borrow can be prohibitive to the smaller companies , if available at all...
Tech is still considered overvalued in many segments- despite the recent selling-
Since I struggle with getting the timing right in taking short positons- perhaps I can just apply a Renko chart to get my timing narrowed down to get more positive results...
Where is the typing/spell check function on this board? -yeesh

[sd]

11-3-2021 Futures are only slightly in the RED-
Right click on the mouse- spellcheck- will get the hang of this new technology one day!
I'm surprised that we're not down 3% or even more following the clarity that the FED put on the markets yesterday!

QCOM missed and blamed reduction in smart phone sales- AAPL didn't meet expectations in some areas- China sales- and has been declining the past week.
AAPL is still highly overpriced on a PE basis- we can expect it to soften further...

JOBS report comes out tomorrow-

2 year note will guarantee a 4.7% return- other forms of fixed income may yield better returns than some stocks will deliver....

Biden wants more Energy from the oil companies- more production, i.e. lower prices for the consumers.... Pandering to the voting public- after all- he vowed he would shut down the oil industry - and took actions to shut down the pipeline construction, drilling etc. Every time we fill up, we

Yesterday looked RED across the sectors-



Here's how today performed:



Been gone today- Had an appointment with a TD Ameritrade rep in Cary this am , and then spent the day at our daughter's shop helping move some items around- as she is preparing to deliver us a grandson. Plan to meet with another TD Rep Monday to discuss including some fixed income components in the long term portfolio.

I ratcheted up stops today in the Van accounts to lock in gains- and even the value -VTV;AVUV,SCHD have hit stops-
Van account lost about -2% today- down 1K - but is now 80% in cash- Disturbing that even the value positions were sold off today!
This could easily just be a whipsaw day, as both VTV and XLE dropped lower at the open, but -XLE in particular- closed back higher in the prior base.
QID short TECH is making $$$, and i think we have much further to go-
Tomorrow I will be taking more substantial short positions -

What could screw that type of positioning ? The Elections swinging the Republicans into control- likely sees a surge in the markets -
So, shorting here with 2-3 days to go before we get the election results- better think that the shorts will have to cover a market rally-
Markets ultimately head lower into 2023- but there may be some attempts to rally higher- I'm expecting the Energy trade to also see another roll over - but until that happens, the best I can do is put stops in place and try to reduce losses on the brand new TD positions- and protect relatively small gains in the Van account.

As I discussed today with the TD rep- If I am paying a fee for someone to "manage" my account, I think it's fair to expect that person who has the backing of a large corporation with professional advisers to be able to see the likely market influences in the months directly ahead and suggest a slight adjustment in the course to avoid the Glacier that is obviously directly ahead.

[sd]

11-4-2022 Futures in the green on the jobs report- covering my short positions- selling QID at the open-should net a small gain. REK has a stop just at break even- I'd like to consider adding to this real estate short as I think it likely continues into 2023

I'll be buying back value stocks today - considering the elections next week should give them a boost.
So, yesterday's drop was a buying opportunity- that i didn't take advantage of- the disadvantage of being so Risk adverse on my part-
REK came back and hit my exact stop- no net gain or loss- I continue to hear bearish commentary on the housing market... REK should be able to see more upside this year- but the present trend is declining from the highs made 3 weeks earlier- appears to be a dbl bottom chart wise in an uptrend-
Energy working today - making new highs in the indexes-

Mid day- Rally fading, Energy losing it's gains-
I'm surprised- it seems that the upcoming election should see more of a market rally as the Republicans are favored to add seats...
I'm ultimately bearish- I'm wanting to reduce some position size in the TD accounts- as it was clearly a whipsaw when I added early on Powell's inital soft talk this week. I'm seeing some of those positions down -2% + - and with the added size- that adds up- Down -1% in that account.
I'm taking an approach that the markets likely go lower- eventually- and starting new short positions in QID, SARK- with only partial entries today, using buy-stops to add on a higher move today- but also setting lower limit orders to add more size on a pullback-

Crude is above $90/barrel

For a portion of the TD IRA portfolio- looking to learn more and add some income/bond etfs, covered call options etfs- and planning to discuss that with the TD rep Monday.

Positions taken this pm SARK,QID,REK


End of WEEK- Got whipsawed into cash yesterday with stops getting activated, positions being sold, and ended up with a large % in cash as markets made a bit of a rally Friday.

Holding a large % of cash in both the IB and the Van accounts- did not rush to jump back in today-

Hate to see these lower lows- I also had made some losing trades in the IB this week- intentionally experimenting a bit there- and that's the Price to be paid-
Also experimenting with the short positioning in the face of today's market higher closes. contrarian at best- but it seems that we have several influences at play- The FED put, and the Election call-


Getting to the weekly performance:
From last week:

YTD:YTD Going baCK to the start:
"SD's 2022 start:$18,078 + $43,742 = $61,820.00"
the performance difference was 32.06% compared to the indexes. made that math correction noted in the 10-21- blog entry.
nOT TO GET TOO COMPLICATED , i had to take out $806.00 from the Van IRA -for RMDs- so I will add that figure back in to the Van balance for accuracy $49224 + 806= $50,030
LOSSES BROUGHT DOWN IB : $19,163.00 Glad Pride didn't cause me to hold those shorts!

Combined : $69,193.00 - Booyah! making gains- How much can we keep next week? Last week perfor was YTD +9.8%
last week The relative performance of the indexes was -12.13 the relative difference 21.93%


This week, Combined value is lower - primarily from the sells in the Van account- However, most of that is net in cash ....At any time I expect a 2% account value swing on a single volatile day.

IB- $18,983.00
Van $49,079.00
Total $68,082.00
My YTD performance $68,082 -61,820 = +$ 6,262/61820 =10.13% YTD gain.

The 3 indexes from start to present:

DIA 364.34 - 324.14 = 40.2/364.34 =-11.0 %
SPY 476.30 - 376.35 = 99.95/476.30 = -20.98 %
QQQ 399.05 - 264.68 = -134.37/399.05 -33.67%

combined 3 indexes perf ytd -65.65/3 = an average index loss YTD -21.88%


The relative performance difference is 10.13 + 21.88% = 21.98% - WRONG MATH!- thats 32.01% difference in relative performance
Last week was a 21.93% difference, so, my net lower performance this week, was also matched by the indexes also making a lower ytd performance.
I'm either setting myself up for a big disappoint as we go into next week with a large % of cash and several short trades on.....in the IB and Van accounts.
So, the markets and I both disappointed a bit equally this week.

China rallies this week- Is China opening? If so, that's large for increased Oil demand-
As I'm setting up for where this market is heading, -no one knows- but I think Real Estate shood be in the crosshairs- with higher rates and declining prices- and a lack of buyers- prices should decline- BUT THAT'S THE DANGER OF APPLYING LOGIC TO YOUR INVESTING THESIS-
What seems a common sense outcome should be reflected by a corresponding move in the etf that tracks that specific performance- but perhaps i am mistaken to think REK actually moves based on the Housing market- I haven't done enough homework to understand what REK actually responds to.

It is also interesting that AAPL stock made a low on the Week when the QQQ's managed to close higher than yesterday's low. AAPL is a very large % of most cap
weighted indexes- AAPL is also down modestly on the YTD, losing from $397 Jan 3 2022 down to $265.00 this week.
That's a 33% decline in just 1 year- and AAPL still trades at a high forward PE of 20x-
Here's a performance chart of AAPL and AAPD- the AAPL inverse over this 2022 year.
AAPD IS ONLY A FEW MONTHS OLD- The chart can only go back to 63 days- that AAPD came onto the market- It is part of the inverse market ETFs that are being brought forward to allow traders-and investors- to take a focused position on whether an investment is going to move higher or lower -
This is a potential game changer for investors, to take both sides of the chart as the tide may turn. Of course , Cramer would never advocate this flexibility- He says to "Own AAPL, don't Trade It" - that was fine when it was uptrending- but Jim, what do you say now? Why not profit from AAPL in only 1 direction? and, If you drank the kool-Aid and bought AAPL in the beginning of 2022, you now have a position that has lost 33% of it's value.




As I explore the potential to profit from a market decline, instead of being a deer in the headlights taking whatever comes down the highway...There are many other options to select from.
Believing that The ARKK funds likely have further to fall, SARK is the inverse way ... Notice that while ARKK is down -51% while the SARK is only up + 34%.
This may be the effect of these funds potentially having to rebalance and restart on a daily basis...

i.imgur.com/Mp5Vvt1.png

let's look at the QID compared to the QQQ's - the 2x QID is up 78%, while the QQQ's are down -34%



SDS shorts the SPY + 40% vs -20%

[sd]

REK ON A RENKO CHART:
Renko does not display any price gaps.
USING A 4 HOUR PERIOD - OVER 1 YEAR - Each box is worth $.30 cents.



THE 60 MINUTE RENKO CHART - 4 MONTHS - Each box is worth $.15 cents in price movement.




The 15 minute Renko - 15 days Each box is worth just $0.05 cents of price movement.





wHILE i HAVE A BIAS -That the Real Estate sector is skating on thin ice- and will continue to go lower into 2023 with higher rates etc-
The recent rally in XLRE -the realestate Sector etf- has tried to rally in the past 2 weeks-
I will use the swing low shown on the REK chart of $20.30 as time to get out of the trade-
The XLRE should Close a day above $37.41 -indicating the trend is higher for Real estate.