SD - 2022 - A YEAR TO LOSE LESS AND TO KEEP MORE !

[sd]

9-30-2022
Futures relatively flat-Anxious to see how Friday will evolve!

Liberty Media SPAC- wants to Close before it's expiration... So many SPACS were brought forth- and very few ever made acquisitions that were profitable.
Another lesson learned- much like the Crypto/ NFT/ token hype- Fortunately, I didn't dabble much in those marktets-!
Chicago PMI comes in at a surprise low 45.7% - Not certain how the market interprets how these reports will affect the Fed's approach to rates-
It's all about the Fed PUT -
Pending limit order to short TSLA @ $40.35 is well below the present price action $41.80- trying to capture a lower cost of entry -
Notice todays higher open is declining as we head towards 10 am-


10:30 TSLQ price is declining-, as TSLA is trying to make a recovery



Univ of michigan- consumer sentiment- 58.6 vs 59.5 est- What does it all mean?
NKE down 11% , inventory concerns- , Carnival down, MU disappoints- projects slower future demand.

mid morning- bit of green


LNG - best performer today, moving higher for a 3rd day.

Other than closing the losing EEM position in the Van account yesterday-Positions are somewhat mixed -Barely profitable in AAPD midday.
Losing in ARCH,QID, , Gaining in EOG, FCG, LNG, xle,xop - Energy

Besides the action of the Bank of England this week- a 1 day market rally-earlier-

Inflation is still with us-
Fed governor- Fed is committed to staying the course and not making a short term reaction...
Steve Weiss -consistently pounds the table that Now is not the time to look for reasons to go long...
Bank of America- sell rallies...
The consensus today -of the CNBC noon hour group- is that we are still overpriced- large cap tech is still well above where it should be trading in this environment- closer to 17x earnings vs today's higher valuations- means there is still plenty of downside Risk-

This week I opened partial positions in the Van account in VTV- Value ETF, and SCHD vs Nobl. I'd like to think the recent gap down last week to new lows would be a bottom here- at least a temporary- and that we would see a bounce higher- I'm intentionally shaping the Van funds to have more conservative holdings- investment style- but i also think we likely have further downside- so the positions taken this week were perhaps premature- and the bounce I thought was coming did not materialize- The ultimate question I have to ask is whether i will hold these positions if they break this week's base. I'm about 50% cash in the Van accounts- and potentially could dollar cost average if these positions decline further- That goes against my nature though- Taking that smaller loss has proven to be the wise approach this year-

With the Nordstrom pipeline being blown up- Should give the nat gas stocks plenty of upside...
Adding EQT here $40.69


LNG - showing a lot of upside momentum following the nordstrom pipeline bombing!


FCG :Expect it to fill the Gap to the upside


UNG is much more volatile than FCG



I had to Buy TSLQ at the Close- It did not come down to my lower limit-so I had to chase it $42.49 @ 3:59 pm.

[sd]

Let's get into an End of Week Summary-
Tough week for the markets and my account as well.
Vanguard : $45,388 (Holding 50% in cash)
IB : $17,781

Total $63,169.00 Down from the prior week $63,608.00
Still, Eeking out a barely positive YTD return:
"SD's 2022 start:$18,078 + $43,742 = $61,820.00" -
This week = + $1,349.00 or a +2.1% YTD gain. Meager, but net positive.

Markets:

Copy and pasting the 1st week's index performances:1 week index performance : DIA start 364.34 ; SPY 476.30 -; QQQ $399.05
DIA 364.34 -287.30 = - 77.04 = -21%
SPY 476.30 -357.18 = - 119.12 =- 25%
QQQ 399.05 -267.26 = - 131.79 = -33%

Combined 3 index average 79/3 = - 26.3%

Relative performance difference this week 26.3 + 2.1 = 28.4% differential- up +1% from last week Losing less presently - but will try to add some Risk to get back some gains. Presently all in with free cash in the IB and carrying over several short positions into next week- Timing the new entries into an up move in Energy this week-
Keeping a larger 50% cash position in the Van account -Will try to put that to work on rallies- or, as the markets are down -25% on the year- figure that we have surpassed the typical bear- and will likely see further downside- Looking for Tech to crack lower- and the sell-off in AAPL is a real signal that the moat is weakening.
While the argument that short term treasuries with a guaranteed return is a Risk-off component for market participants- enticing for many versus the Risk of individual stocks--
Listening to some of those investment managers- that want to hope for a classic sell-off exit Climax bottom-
And are trying to rationalize buying stock XYZ based on how far that stock has fallen from it's highs- Using the large % decline is based on a past higher level as having been a good value- ergo today's lower price 50% less should be a great Buy- That's irrelevant, and what counts is where the business model is going to be in the new normal. That goes to our psychology as investors-though- similarly the desire to take positions in the direction of our Bias- mine is presently still bearish... yet, I want to be ready to go to the long side-

Today we Closed the SPY & QQQ decisively below the June lows- , Dow has already broke that level 2 weeks ago-

Checkout Dan Nathan, Guy Adami- @ Zeta:
www.youtube.com/watch?v=2zqI4Xl9zfk

[sd]

Before computers- the crash of 1987 revisited; Interesting video .....interviews with floor traders & execs at that time....Started with a Friday sell-off, that turned into a full scale sell everything the next week. and, the amazing reversal that saved the markets....
www.youtube.com/watch?v=jLfjEMDJubg

However, even with the advent of computerized trading- we still see an occaisional flash crash-Haven't seen that One has to wonder what event - Black Swan- will trigger the next market run...


You have to watch- and listen- to cautions and concerns expressed by Adami, Nathan, Sossnoff, and Carter Worth-

www.youtube.com/watch?v=TN_qmPKPH14

Take note of the analysts reducing earnings expectations-

This somewhat reminds me of the late 2007 market pundits that were bearish and pointing out the excesses that were in the mzarkets- particularly with the real estate-markets- So, let's consider that today's negative commenters- that make logical argumnents framed around how excessive the markets had traveled to- now are simply pointing out the obvious result of that excess...and expecting that we will still go lower in the face of a Fed that is hawkish, rising inflation, an anticipated recession in 2023- if not already- and a Fed policy approach that remains hawkish-

What potentially makes a temporary difference may be the mid term elections and a shift in the political climate- My thinking is that we may see another -10% downside- and - perhaps that is so close to a bottom that it's worth putting cash back in- How easy it is to See what you want to see- that supports one's personal belief or Hope Bias....-
Per Adami-"This isn't over by any stretch of the imagination"- referring to the market revaluation companies overpriced PE's heading lower.

i thought I had a good entry in Value and Schd- to build a position- seeing how they are oversold and trying to bounce- but perhaps i took too large a position- and they drop further- Similar, energy seemed to pop Friday, OIL pricing seemed to take a hold..... and my logic suggests that I'm right in being long Energy and nat gas here- but how dangerous is one's logic framing one's investment/trading decisions? Just have to see if the charts agree- and -if not- go with the tide..but, be willing to take the loss. The 1st loss is the smallest - your opportunity to trade another day with the cash you have left- is the opportunity to live and learn.....


This is Fun-to view- Tom Sossnoff builds "Think or Swim" -and the others involved...

www.youtube.com/watch?v=g1mFlv8-r9s

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[sd]

October 3-2022-
Futures are in the green, Energy looks to continue to make back some gains- at least premarket----
TSLA disappoints- so my TSLA short- TSLQ should be in the green today- I've 3k of buying power in the IB- may double that short- by another $1k in the position.
TSLA looks to be down -3.5% -premarket ($255.87)- TSLA has the 1st mover advantage- but is priced very high on a PE basis-

Closed the AAPL short for a small gain and QID as well-
TSLA is down -7% Looking to add to the TSLQ short @ $43.50- well below present price-
Energy making big moves higher.
I want to get positioned to go back into AAPD- and also add to TSLQ-

Doubling down on the XOP position- Energy Exploration-
Added DBE back into the portfolio-
Dbld SCHD Value -US dividend ETF.

TSLA next reports in 3 weeks- My TSLQ short popped +8% today- I'd like to add to the position on a pullback from these levels-
Similarly, I took small gains on AAOPD- AAPL short- but I think AAPL is also overpriced- with further downside-
Also closed the QID position today-short tech- managed to make a few $$$ REK stops out for a small loss.
OPEC has called for an in person meeting Wed to discuss setting price controls and possible reduction in output to stabilize the price of OIL-
Thus the big pop in the energy stocks today!
Added a few energy names- ET, EQT-PXD also a start in PANW- All in the Van accounts-emphasis on the move higher in energy- potentially is only a 2 day move- Opec outcome will set the tone- as well as the Gov't reaction-Will this be a "sell the News" event?
Some cash clear in IB- Trying to determine if I want to add to the TSLA short using a limit order for tomorrow-

Brazil rallying on the strength of the right wing candidate...also seeing their inflation rate is coming down as they started Rate Hikes months before the US did...
Oh yes- I'm carrying value positions as a good % of the Van portfolios-

At today's Close- Cantor Fitzgerald was a big bear 2 weeks ago, flips today and calls this as a bottom....With the final Fed rate hike to be just 50 pts in December.
TSLQ closed very close to it's highs today- up +8.7% for a very nice 1 day pop- I'm also putting in a lower limit order to add to the position @ $43.50.
I found it interessting that despite today's market rally, Tsla investors didn't step in and Buy on today's pullback. TSLA closed $242.40 on a gap down drop.


Decent net +1.9 % account gains today- above Friday's Close- Will do the final Tally Friday- Have to remind myself it's not the paper gains that count, but what portion of them you can retain.

CS- Credit Suisse- Not a contagion in the financial markets???

[sd]

Day 2- Markets - premarket- strongly in the green-
Watching my TSLA short -so, I have a stop-loss $149.49- will capture $2 of the trade if it executes- haD A $4 GAIN AT YESTERDAY'S cLOSE-
I also have an order to buy TSLA at a low limit of $43.50
Tastytrade live-https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xilI4r6IBj4
Yesterday:



aS TSLQ stops out as price gaps down lower on the open- I adjusted a new Buy order limit for $40.00 with a stop attached @ $39.00





Nice to be positioned on the correct side of the market today! I've got a spot of free cash only in the IB, but I either want to go long TSLQ or AAPD- at some point shorting AAPL and TSLA- but not in today's Rally...TSLA is up $7, but it's not Closing that Gap!
TSLA:


Haven't seen this much Green in a very Long time!- Again, it's how much you can retain at the End of the Week!
Keep in mind that this is a mid morning shot when everything is bullish- I'm in the camp that this is just a bear market rally- and Energy on the Opec news.





As can be seen, I'm heavily invested in energy, with a weighting towards Value in the SCHD, VTV approx 12k in the Van accounts-25%
As for energy- Keep in mind it's rallying here despite the fear of a global recession- and lower oil prices-lower demand- but the "News" about OPEC announcing a cut in production is the mover here. That "News" will be fully recognized at tomorrows meeting.
On big gap away moves, I'll have to get into the charts- but I want to retain a good portion of the upside- so, I'll consider taking something off with split stops-or even partial sells



Let's assume this weeks positive market action is not the final bottom- but as Carter Worth points out, the trend is to the downside-and bounces/rallies-are to be expected to occur- Last week the $VIX got to a mid 30's -oversold level- Today's drop below the 30 level is important as it is also joined by a multi sector rally-
Doesn't always work -but it's worth watching to see if the momentum can remain bullish for this bounce for this week..A declining $VIX is good for investors-


Combined with some indicators that are coming in and support the Fed's approach that we need to see a slowing economy- that's enough to get the markets thinking the Fed will not be as aggressive with their next rate hikes-

The SPY chart illustrates us coming off lasat week's Close below the June Lows- The ultimate question is whether that level would be a market bottom, or would we see a deeper decline as some have predicted- I believe that those that are predicting we go substantially below that level- -5 -10% deeper- will ultimately be correct as the new market realities of lowered earnings and higher PE's get reevaluated in the next quarters.
That bearish bias however needs to be set aside and we try to roll with the market flow to the upside- and recognize that this week's positive momentum may stall at
the 390 level- or the 50 ema - declining and below the 200 ema- Until that changes, the momentum is to be considered to be a continuation in the downtrend.
This chart includes the RSI indicator- which last week had dropped into the bearish oversold level - which also coincided with the high $vix readings-


Listening and taking note of the smart traders/managers on CNBC noon time-They are unanimous in believing the Fed will continue to stay the course to fight inflation.

conversely, compare the XOP- Oil/energy exploration chart as a proxy for most of my energy holdings...
The difference in this upside move in the sector is that it is primarily news generated. And Tomorrow will be the resolution of what the outcome will become known as in terms of Opec's proposed reduced production output- and then the market reaction may be topped out...or at least all priced in in this quick upmove-
Or am I underestimating the strength of the demand for energy ? If the markets don't think we're heading for a future recession and global slowing, perhaps energy can continue to recover some prior gains for the week-

Just bought TSLQ back (TSLA short) on the "News" that Elon Musk released a tweet that the TWTR deal can go through @ $54.00.
This is a spec day trade - and I'm long TSLQ @ $45.46 ... shorting TSLA based on the belief that Musk will be forced to sell more TSLA stock-
My stop will be just at the swing low today- $43.46 - and It will be anet wash if it stops out, negating the prior $50 gain .


The Chart of XOP- oil Exploration- is making some substantial gains in the last 2 days. This can also stand as a proxy for some of the individual stock names I bought. $145 would be a 1st target, followed by $150.00 . I don't think the June highs will be achieved as talk is now surrounding a global slowdown/recession , and expectation for lower oil prices-


Strong Close! 2 days of up momentum! Lots of short covering....
Accounts had a 1 day gain of +3% today- Don't expect that momentum to continue tomorrow- will closely watch the way Energy acts- and around the OPEC news.
Holding a small Short TSLA position- overnight- Tsla has not participated in the rally, and why would there not be concerns about Musk buying TWTR for a ridiculously high price?


At the End of Day:

[sd]

10-05-2022
Futures in the Red!
Premarket I see both AAPL and TSLA are shoowing red-I will add to my TSLA short, and consider buying AAPD -an APPL short-in the IB
Reportedly Opec agreeing on a 2 Million Barrel cut- this should push energy prices higher- Not seeing that much of a price increase premarket in XLE-
This is volatility 101- 2 days up, and whoosh!

Added to TSLQ and bought AAPD
Selling energy positions in the IB on weakness-
Raising stops on all positions in the Van- everything is net profitable, but holding a lot of energy there- and it's weakening- setting stops just below today's swing lows here @ 10:30 am.

TSLA short up +5%- average cost is at a higher level $45.53.
AAPD short $28.29
Will take a position in SSG- $31.78-stop $30.50 with the remaining free cash in the IB
I think the TSLA short has the most promise because of the production Miss just reported, the stock had been demonstrating weakness before the TWTR news- and now the TWTR news brings into question whether Musk will have to sell off more of his TSLA holdings to pay for the deal... Markets are weaker than when Musk first proposed buying TWTR in the Spring, and the costs of borrowing are now much more expensive.

In the Van accounts, The energy positions giving up yesterday's gains with pullbacks-
I had higher expectations based on the OPEC cuts- but as often occurs- Buy the rumor- sell the news is what the markets are doing today-
So, Yesterday's big profits (on paper at least) evaporate with the lower price pullbacks we're seeing today-
Should mention that I considered selling some of each position yesterday, but waffled on that thinking we'd see considerable upside again in Energy today.
ARCH coal position is gaining today - Had a good lower entry $122.60
All total, stops are now in all positions- and - profitable - I'm using a view of the faster time frame charts as my guide...

3 short positions- in the IB using about 6K -The TSLA short was on from yesterday, and an add today- so it's up $2 presently- SSG and AAPD are both based on anticipated further weakness in AAPL and Semis following the rally this week.

SMH still contains a number of highly priced chip stocks- and last week broke below the July lows - The recent July -mid August rally stalled at the declining 200 ema- and close to the original downtrend line- Let's evaluate the potential that Semis will again retest the most recent lows in the course of the next week-






TSLA weakness target would be 220 -210 level -about -15% from here- Since the initial weakness was based on the production miss, the stock was already heading lower.With yesterday's concession to pay full price for TWTR, the concerns are many regarding TSLA shares as a potential sale to fund the TWTR purchase...



Mid afternoon- Energy the only sector holding in the green


The AAPD trade is close to stopping out- TSLQ is offsetting that with net gains- but losing momentum this pm....



EOD- AAPD did stop out for a small loss- TSLQ closed with a net gain .SSG also stopped out, so likely a wash for the day on the short trades.
Overall, Closed today a bit lower in the IB- -$70.00 and net higher in the Van accounts- + $400. so a relatively decent .4% account net gain.
Notably, my tightened stops in the IB took me out of the majority of the energy positions for gains- but on price weakness intraday- Those sells saw prices reverse and close higher on the day for all of the energy positions over yesterday's closes-
That is the Risk in using a faster time frame chart to apply stops - because the volatility may catch the stop- and whipsaw-back higher.
FCG stopped out-in the IB had nice gains- and has been trending higher for 7 trading days compared to the abysmal UNG- I'm not certain of why the 2 don't track each other better- but the FCG seems to be the better performer-

Sold 1/2 of my value SCHD position today on a raised stop to lock in profits- Still holding 65 shares -also holding VTV-

EOD sector performers:



$vix calming down- indexes all slightly in the Red;


I sold 50 of my 115 share position in SCHD- a position that was based on a potential bottom in this Dividend fund- and looking for a pop higher-
I built the position intentionally last week - seeking esxposaure to the value segment. while price was basing at a new low- hoping for an oversold bounce in "value" - and the dividend payers-
With an actual 'breakout' higher Tuesday, I sold 50 shares intraday on today's mid morning weakness to lock in a partial gain above my average cost of entry.
I had expected a market to go higher for both energy- and value- and was concerned as there was weakness in both. I still hold all of the VTV position-
With a small $1 gain for almost 1/2 of the position, I can potentially widen the stop a tad on the remaining position to $68.40 - a logical stop if price was to retest the gap..... that would still be net- retaining a profit-
But- let's be honest- this is trading for small $$$ 1-2% - possibly even pennies- and trying to capture some short term swings within a choppy market-A lot of work compared to handing over your account to a manager with a diversified approach-
As the title of this thread suggested- "Losing Less" is also a desirable goal - even if one isn't necessarily making more-
Becoming more tactical- taking smaller profits -and smaller losses- is an evolution of the type of environment we are in.
With the issue of the Treasury yields becoming a desirable counter investment to stocks and higher Risks- and the unknown FED response in the months ahead- I think stocks continue to reset seeking a lower Fair Value-
If So- the conventional thinking we all engaged in for several years since the 2020 covid recovery- needs to be put on the back shelf- and we need to recognize that there is likely a new paradigm ahead- I think "Value " becomes a bridge betrween where we are and where we will be a year from now- and there will likely be a lot of companies that will not survive the transition-
Perhaps, as some suggest- passive index investing will not get you there- but there are plenty of ways to slice and dice the investing world with focused etfs- as well as the recent new opportunities to explore ETFs that allow one to "short"- take the inverse side-
Or- simply retain cash until a solid market develops- and don't worry about missing the bottom-
If I was an investor and working, I would be trying to increase my contribution % to a diversified portfolio- and not worry about the next 4 or 5 months if I had 4 or 5 years ahead....

Almost forgot -as i got off a tangent- The SCHD trade- Sold a portion to lock in a gain- Holding the remainder and the ultimate question is how wide a stop - will this manage to go higher from here?

[sd]

10-6-2022

Futures slightly red premarket-
Approach for today- _manage remaining energy positions- adjust stops- likely look at yesterday's lows as a hard stop to not be broken-
Premarket energy companies showing in the Red....
TSLA is only slightly down- The pogtential sale of shares by MUSK to fund the TWTR deal does not appear to be affecting the stock- I've adjusted the TSLQ stop to be at my cost of entry to give this a bit of wiggle room today - $45.60
Saw Kevin Oleary on CNBC yesterday- promoting 2 of his funds for small cap and mid cap high value-dividend producers-
I'm going to look further at those today and potentially use the $$$ from the partial SCHD sale to fund positions in those-
As we potentially retest lower price levels- having an overweight portion in "value" may be prudent--
Ideally I would want to have a value position that pays dividends and is also Appreciating in price-
I definitely don't want to be holding a dividend fund that pays pennies out on losing $$$value-which seems to be a 'thing' for a number of SA contributors-
Just as a starting point- a YTD performance chart comparing the SPY with several value/dividend funds-
VTV,SCHD,NOBL,OUSA,OUSM

tHE CHART ILLUSTRATES THE MORE VOLATILE SPY: Red line- as the most volatile with returns down -20% YTD.
As we view the 5 other charts, the YTD declines vary from -11.5% for the Vanguard value VTV, followed by SCHD, NOBL,OUSA,OUSM.

OK, let's look at the past 40 days where the market peaked in early August.
Again The VTV was the least volatile - losing -6.5% vs the Spy -10%
One thing is also obvious- These funds-albeit with lesser volatility- essentially mimic the directional trend set by the SPY



Nice 4 day bounce for all:Gains of +4.6- +5.6%



Decided to set stops for 50% of each position applying the 2 hr psar -
At the open- Energy is heading higher-
Sold 1/3 of ARCH into the upmove $144....
Raising trailing stops - big momentum move -RSi over 81
TIGHTER STOP ALSO EXECUTES- rEMAINING STOP $139.90



The 5 minute chart- I'm pleased with the Sell today of a portion- near the top- and also splitting the stops 1/3 and 1/3 -
The final 1/3 was set just under today's low - Let's see if it holds-


@ 10:15- the upwards momentum has failed to find additional buyers- Price is weakening, and this is a "Topping Tail" - a sign of likely exhaustion.


The final stop was hit 10:20 - as price retraced from the initial upside momentum- The combined 3 trades generagted a +15% return in 3 +Days.

It was a good early entry, based on strength in the Energy sector and ARCH is one coal company that is clearly still very necessary as coal fuels many energy companies. Potentially there will be further upside and this can present a pullback from where i could take another entry.



mid morning- Energy positions are relatively flat to down-
TSLQ short is working- TSLA is down but only slightly today - I moved the stop-loss on the trade to Break even to give it some room for volatility-
Potentially further news about the TWTR trade could push TSLA shares down further.

Markets are flat with all 3 indexes having "inside" days- indecisive - chopping around the opening prices- directionless presently
a small amount of free cash in the IB- Will look at who today's leaders are in the energy markets compared to those that are slipping today.

PM- took the small amount of freed cash in Ib to Buy REK $21.51- stop $20.35- Shorts RealEstate- has been trending for 3+ weeks-

At the end of the Day- The volatility in ARCH shares worked out to Close at a new high!


Accounts managed to eek out a bit higher close on the Week! Energy positions mostly moved higher today-with the indexes gaining-but several individual companies giving back a bit-
Today the Van account closed at a new high for the year- but that's a passing moment that can easily see a 2% drop overnight-on a market day.

Where will the markets go tomorrow? Waiting on a jobs report that some think will cause the Fed to not raise rates aggressively-
AMD missed estimates- guided lower- theme for chips---Will semis continue to take another leg lower?
Musk wants to postpone TWTR deal due to financing until the end of October- I would think this would undermine TSLA stock as a financial concern-
OPEC is taking oil off the markets- Biden is pissed- This should be good for higher oil prices as lower supply will cause prices to go up.
Higher gas prices will affect the consumer's ability to spend- and undermine confidence coming into the elections.
Real estate is typically strong in the fall- and this month demand dropped for the 1st time in decades- Higher rents, high home interest, cut backs on buyers- cooling the housing markets- Thus the REK small position....

And Biden will commute the sentences for those convicted of simple pot possession- About time....
Waiting for a majority of cash to clear in the IB.....-This is where Van will allow you to buy with uncleared cash- but you will be in violation if you sell any of the purchases before the cash is formally cleared.

[sd]

OK- Yes this is pretty much my personal blog- it's my thing that keeps me engaged...

Comments? Different ideas about trades? Something to contribute? drop me a note- I'll respond in the forumn

[e-mail]...

[sd]

10-7-2022
Futures in the Red in response to a bullish jobs report-
Indications that the opening will be lower-
Energy- xle is up slightly premarket-
Cash cleared in the IB account- can take some inverse positions- SDS, QID, and may add to REK,TSLQ.....

9k in short positions- Added to REK,TSLD ; QID,SDS,SSG -bought SARK All of these were higher at the open where I bought- SSG & SARK were bought a bit later am -
The assumption is that the market will sell-off a bit today- Market Did not like the jobs report because it is a Data point that the Fed will consider that the economy is still too strong-
Sector performance this open:



vtv AND schd STOPPED OUT-ON A TIGHT STOP- Will look to repurchase on a retest of the lows. This captured a small net gain on both----
AAPL seeing a gap down open -giving up it's recent gains made last week- Look for the retest of the prior low. I did not take a short position in AAPD
Presently,


lABOR PARTICIPATION RATE-
UNEMPLOYMENT 3.5%

mid afternoon-All of the Short Trades taken this am in the IB are working in my favor- I will hold over the weekend unless there is a reversal to the upside in the last hours today.
dow is presently -2%, S&P -2.5%; Nas -3.6%
Having the ability to opt to take advantage of a downturn is certainly better than holding long as a sitting duck...
TSL>A is down -6% today!

Modest gains in the Van energy accounts-

The moves in Energy are relatively slight to the upside-
DBE -selling 1/3 $25.75 into the upmove @ 3pm- raising stopson the remainder- seeing a pause in XLE,XOP
XOP, XLE both stopped out in Van on raised stops-
Sold 50% of every position in the IB for solid gains- holding the remainder over the weekend- This is a recent approach I have been applying in selling into strength to capture upside gains for a portion of a position- Tenatively, this seems to be a prudent approach to incrementally lock in some gains....



At the End of WEEK:
Energy the big winner on the week, but every sector lost gains this Friday!
How much did you keep at the end of the week?


Van Closes at $47,958.00
IB Closes $19,079.00
Account EOW: $67,039.00

Going baCK to the start:
"SD's 2022 start:$18,078 + $43,742 = $61,820.00" -

This week the account saw a net gain $67,039.00 - $61,820.00 = + $5,219.00 net gain or + 8.43% YTD.

As markets Closed on the dowsnside this week: Last week the average was -26.3%
Copy and pasting the 1st week's index performances:1 week index performance : DIA start 364.34 ; SPY 476.30 -; QQQ $399.05
DIA 364.34 -292.87 = -71.47 = -19.6%
SPY 476.30 -362.79 =-113.51 = -23.83%
QQQ 399.05 -269.10 =-129.95 = - 32.56%
Combined 3 index average -52.75% or a combined average loss of 52.75/3 = -17.58%

The relative differential in performance is 17.58 loss + 8.43 gain = a 26% out performance YTD compared to a stock index portfolio.

It just occurred to me that perhaps I should have considered a Bond component as in a 60-40 ratio-
The BND component was $82.96 on Jan 3- and Closed very close to this year's low @ $70.93 - a loss of $12.03 or - 14.5% loss YTD

Late am- Short positions are working- other than Dog being hit at the early open, the price volatility did not hit my raised stops that were designed to get out with a small gain- again- using that faster time frame view to set the stops with-

[sd]

This Saturday - a look back overview of how we got here in 2021. Some guesses where we bottom, and ideas on how to try to prosper in 2023 as we enter the 4th stage of an economic downturn-

Based on listening to Pundits on CNBC-with a 20-20  rear view look back.We ended up in our present situation primarily due to the Fed pumping monies and $0.00 rates and government  'pay you to stay-at home' in response to Covid- The Fed failed to take it's foot off the gas and continued the policy of low rates and continuing to pump up the housing market with buying mortgage backed securities- even when the boom in housing was evident. Fed failed to recognize the inflation was not transitory, kept pumping stimulus into the economy long after the economy was running on all cylinders.- Today we have the lowest unemployment rate since 1969!and  many companies find it difficult to find people willing to work- wages are going up- and inflation was over 8%, and is gradually coming down in some areas-The 2 year-10 year rate inversion is persistant- and foreshadoqwed the market's interpretation of the rate inversion as signaling a future recession was likely....The US Dollar continues to be climbing - making US goods more expensive world wide-  The global economies are faced with an energy shortage, food inflation, energy inflation , and most are already in recession status-    We're on the downhill late stage of  an economic cycle of boom-bust that is well illustrated by Ray Dalio's you tube video on 'How the Economy works'
www.youtube.com/watch?v=PHe0bXAIuk0&t=3s-
As the markets look ahead- and are priced on future prospects for growth and company profits- Earnings become the benchmark of those expectations.
3rd qtr earnings in a few weeks are likely going to be lower- and that's being reflected in the market's unwillingness to pay Up higher-for company stock.
The Dire FEDX earnings miss and future guidance foreshadowed the market's nervousness about where we are headed.

2021  saw the PEAK in the markets-and 2022 saw the markets start to correct- and  we see it affected in almost all sectors, all stocks, with very few exceptions- (Energy/oil)   
Energy and Oil stocks  were shunned by ESG proponents, and  had been declining since 2018, and only represents about 4% of the S&P in terms of valuation. - only to now see a major recovery as the world realizes that it needs cheap fossil fuels for Energy-Amplified by the Ukraine war  and Russia's  energy dominance over Europe.
Many energy companies are now viewed as having restructured their business models and are still considered good relqative values if oil is above $75.00- Many pay dividends- and while energy has had some down turns in 2022, it's within a predominant uptrend--
Energy dominated the sectors in 2022 YTD with substantial upside -particularly compared to the other market sectors-which are all in negative territory .

Will it continue to be a relative outperformer? Likely so, particularly if Russia energy continues to be taken off the market by sanctions-
If the war was to end- Russia cheap oil/gas would likely cause a quick drop in Energy sales from the US companies-but today's energy companies are in a good financial position- The ESG movement is coming to realize that eliminating fossil fuels as an inexpensive energy provider is not going to be replaced anytime soon by solar,wind, .

tHE ATTACHED CHART COMPARES 2022 PERFORMANCES- ENERGY (xle) IS THE OBVIOUS OUTPERFORMER - UP +47% IN 2022 ; SPY-23% ; QQQ-LARGE CAP TECH -32%;vALUE-VTV -13%,
AND THE BIGGEST LOSERS ARKK- AND CRYPTO ! - 58% & -65%




Periodically, I watch Ticker Symbol YOU -on Youtube. He often has some astute market analysis- I just viewed this Sept 27 video where he suggests more market downside-so, thats 2 weeks before yesterday's OPEC reduction came to be-
www.youtube.com/watch?v=WH-wyXmZKZI

Are we at a bottom?
It would seem that we are not yet there-
Bear market rallies occur, and then fail to hold- until -eventually- we start to make higher highs and higher lows...
But we are perhaps taught- falsely- by experiences that the stock market eventually always goes higher-How long that return to an uptrend varies- sometimes years ....
In the mean time, we are taught by the investing community that it's Time in the market- over the long term- that is critical to long term success-
And that Market timing is a losing proposition over the long term-
Mark Minervini talks about how he approaches and identifies stocks in bear markets bottoming-How the set up to identify develops...
How to Spot Leading Stocks in a Bear Market:
www.youtube.com/watch?v=S0BaW2_PxwY

Minervini again : a few weeks ago- Sept 16... Goes into depth in discussing using screener criteria to narrow your focus on the best RS stocks-
www.youtube.com/watch?v=XgPaaQQWYsM

Notice that He often gets in on breakouts following pullbacks -but preferably in an uptrend-
One take away from this video that I think is important is to find trades that are showing strength even when gthe markets are showing weakness-
Identifying market leadership that is holding up- or possibly moving higher in spite of the market weakness may set up as the new leadership-

In this market- it's showing weakness as pushing to new lows at the end of the week - but finding out where the leadership is (Energy) but also looking for what is holding up and not declining with the market may be the place to be focusing on as the market eventually hits a new swing low here---

My decision to sell 1/2 of my winning short positions in the IB on the Friday Close comes from reading Minervini- He often takes off a partial gain early- to protect the breakeven level of the trade, and it was a quick decision I made to sell 1/2 and to keep 1/2- over a weekend- It appeared that the short trades were Closing solidly higher- but a lot can happen over a weekend- Of course, the issue will be waiting for that cash to clear to get it back in play- Likely that will be 3 days- Wednesday- perhaps Tuesday at best.
So- in the past I often would find reasons to be bearish- and allow myself to get on the wrong side of the market due to my bias- wanting to defend my bearish position. so- dropping down into a faster time frame- like the 2 hour charts- limits my exposure to taking a wide loss- Instead of relying on a Daily chart and thinking a Trending period is underway and getting chopped/whipsawed as the market turns 2 days later- The faster time fram chart forces me to be more aggressive in stop placement- designed to capture price that is trending in the very short term over a few days-

I had taken a small 1k short Thursday on TSLA- and it didn't move much in my favor-But i doubled the position size Friday on the TWTR news. and caught a nice downside move Friday- in TSLA and SARK as the 2 largest gainers...
This choppy whipsaw market- likely we discover a new low early this week- and finding the areas that bounce best- will be some of the oversold names- but it's important to qualify those on relative strength- out performance-
One observation- without institutional buying willing to step in, it's easy for an upmove to lack the follow through momentum that institutions bring when building a position-

Relative strength needs to be included in a chart to understand what is outperforming the larger market to become leaders on a rally...
So, sector strength, relative strength- and chart -trend -

So check out the Minervini 2nd video - Minervini gets into depth in how he reduces the stock market universe by using a screener that includes both technical and also fundamental criteria to narrow the potential universe...
Miniverni- quote-Stop-loss is ingrained when the trade is entered- 5-8% Max. Tough market -4% - -6%
1st screen- run the relative strength- look there for trades-
"if it's not in an uptrend and doesn't have good relative strength- Don't consider it"

position size smaller on less liquid stocks.
Screen daily - Note that the video presentation was a promotional video for IBD - pricey- but it also is worthwhile to watch to consider how one can use screening tools to develop a narrower trading universe-
My take away from viewing is that I want to employ the relative strength function to find stocks or ETFs that are the market outperformers.

As i review some of the recent IBD youtube videos this Saturday- I notice that a few include traders that have been sitting the markets out - and are clearly only focusing on trading stocks that are uptrending-
This would include Miniverni- Where are the trades that focused on the downside ? there are 2 sides to a market....

[sd]

IB positions in play for tomorrow- DOG,QID,REK,SARK,SDS,TSLQ- Holding a small position in F as a possible long...trade.

Short positions are something I have recently been exploring= with some relative success- With a choppy whipsawing market that can turn on a dime- or news- or -whatever- it's important for me to not allow my negative market bias to keep me in these short positions- so I'm locking in some small net gains to give me a bit opf wiggle room, and tactically following these on a faster time frame- not expecting these moves to last but for a few days.

TSLQ IS A Short TSLA ETF- - Have to be careful when trading directionally because of my bias- I think TSLA is indeed the EV market leader in the US but overpriced - PE 80.33 F- 4.25 GM 6.39 With the additional "news" about TWTR - Musk conceding to Buy- Questions arise whether Musk will be forced to sell more TSLA shares- so I added to my position-as Monies cleared.
I need to annotate EVERY trade- winners as well as losers-
initial entry 25 share lot 9-30 near the market Close- stop would have been @ $41- below the swing low intraday.
Saw a nice gap move open the next day- stop raised on the fast time frame executes on the lower open 10-4 but nets a decent +4.7% gain.
I watch the price action that day, and reenter as price appears to be gaining strength at noon-
I have monies clear the next day, and add to TSLQ at the higher open. As price weakens that pm, I sell 1/2 that position fopr a small 2% gain-
1'm holding 1 position as price moves sideways 10-6, and I add 25 on the higher open 10-7 - Now holding 50 shares.
Price moves steadily higher during the day- and I decide i will sell 20 of the 50 shares to lock in the gain +9.5% on that portion-
I'm long the position 30 shares over the weekend-
The potentially larger gain on the remaining 30 shares will have a stop-loss with a bit of wiggle room unless the market is indicating a positive rally opening-
I similarly sold 1/2 of each position in the IB to lock in a nice relative gain-although I had just entered in them Friday am


Losing trade-Example- Based on Semis still likely to have more downside- So, I looked to SSG and entered the upmove in the early am 10-5 with a 40 share entry
@ $31.78 10:35 am- Price then reversed lower and i sold/stopped out @ 12:18 $30.40 for a $1.38 loss (-4%)
Friday, the markets were heading lower- I jumped in long a mix of short positions -
After the initial open, the trend direction favored shorting- I bought 50 shares, & I closed out this entire trade going into the Close for a +3.7% gain, not holding any over the weekend-
This becomes a net $$$ wash - with the prior losing trade.
What did I do correctly in these 2 trades?
In Trade 1- I correctly cut the trade off for a quick and a small loss- I disagreeumption for the entry was negated by the price action reversing the initial up move- I lost 4% on a small tenative entry - but Price Closed the day -6% below my entry- and went down -9% on the October 6 open- below $29.00...
So - Kudos for managing the trade to have a small loss of 4% versus a potential -9% + loss as price weakened the following day.

I was taking a lot of trades Friday am- with cleared cash overnight- with the futures suggesting I was correct in going long short trades...
I potentially could have set up buy stop orders premarket open- and then adjusted those orders if they were gapped over- Seeing that the futures were negative was the obvious sign to plan to go short-
Potentially, I could have narrowed the field- and selected fewer short trades and scaled in with larger size -
Certainly TSLA, QID, SARK should have been the top 3 candidates....
Managing fewer trades would allow for better focus-
I also closed this entire trade out- and potentially should have kept 1/2 over the weekend...
By selling the entire position, it negated the prior loss taken earlier in the week - so it's a relative wash...


Too many trades between the IB and the Van accounts- and i'm considering to retake possession of some managed funds that have been a 6 year disappointment all in all- That will require me to take more of an investment approach- in that portion of those funds- We had directed one manager in mid September to sell 50% into cash - thinking we can time a reentry at lower prices in October. That was an excellent decision - even at that belated date, as the market is -7% lower

I also sold off fairly sizeable energy positions in the Van accounts-on very tight stops Friday- and generated a sizable amount of cash- Not allowed to take short positions in the Van Roth or the Van IRA- very limited in being forced to only take Long positions- I prefer to be able to have the freedom to be able to go long or short- use Options and covered calls- -I'm thinking TDameritrade, Schwab- or Think-or Swim- Tastytrade-
I think Energy has more upside- but i'm hoping to capture a lower entry on a swing down - Obviously, the winners here were those that went long Energy at the beginning of the year and held through the ups and the downs-

I also think Value will be a place to take a stand - as we move forward- Since we are creatures of habit-, we will tend to think in terms of the famous Tech names we all know- being the big recovery - but we are entering a new phase in an economy- a recession phase that may have a multi year impact. We should not anticipate we have the V bounce in 6 months like we did with Covid- We no longer have a Fed pumping $$$ into an inflated economy- I think we have to be prepared for a new market leadership- Yes, Tech is essential- but Tech at reasonable valuations-
just my 2 bits....

Meanwhile, I'll continue to see if I can do as this thread suggested- Lose Less and Keep More-
Summary of the IB trades:

[sd]

Look at what predominates - and what has been losing-

one of the precepts of Trend Trading- Going back to Stan Weinstein- Find what is trending and Go Long with what is working- until it fails to do so-
Why persist in trying to find value in what you used to own??? That's a human psychological condition referred to as "anchoring bias" - What once was our winners, we tend to 'anchor' on- and are reluctant to recognize that the time of those winners is potentially over- and possibly transitioning elsewheres-
Cathy Wood - ARKK manager is brilliant, but a lousy portfolio manager as she has held on- and added to some significant losers- Like ZM- When the likelihood is MSFT Teams will dominate- As a money manager- she recognized in the fall that we were heading for a "doozy of a correction" - but she failed to defensively protect her investors and instead tried to add to her highest conviction positions despite the obvious selling....within the innovation framework-
Her persistence in her conviction is to be admired- unless you were an investor that has continued to drink the kool-aid on the long slide down.

So- SARK is up +70% on the year- simply by shorting what ARKK does-

Anyone can claim to have a 5 year focus- and ARK has closed several other funds this year- Have another glass of the Koolaid- it's going to be a long 5 years starting from the end zone to make a new touchdown....
Thanks to Weinstein, and Dave Landry- and Minervini - I believe in Trend- analysis as the #1 element in successful investing- It's the repetive truth that
"The Trend is Your Friend" that is undeniable- and when the trend turns against you- you are positioned incorrectly.

SO- Start with this-What is the market favoring? Find the sectors that are winners- and find the winners within the sectors- in Uptrends-
If it's not uptrending- WHY do you think now is the time to invest in it?

the information in this chart suggests where one can likely start to find a few winning trades.

[sd]

10-10-2022

PAUL TUDOR JONES - on CNBC- "Forget what you learned that the stock market was for the past 12 years"

Agrees with Ray Dalio's recent declaration that CASH is important- He used to say that "Cash is Trash"

Jamie Dimon- Thinks there potentially could be another 20% downside.

Futures relatively flat....but turning into the green-
Ford downgraded to a Sell along with GM

Jones also tracks and invests with social issues in mind: Ranks 1000 companies in a Just index...
www.cnbc.com/2022/01/11/these-are-the-top-100-esg-stocks-in-america-the-2022-just-100.html

Tightening stops to activate above my cost basis- potentially netting a small gain - but no guarantees where price opens-
Futures are turning slightly positive- so these positions will likely be sold at the open.


No freed cash in the IB-
Freed cash in the Van- will look for some potential long entries-

10 minutes into the open -adding into Energy with cleared cash in the Van-
Added- Back into ARCH, FCG, Add to ET, Add to EQT-

Waiting to see if XLE, XOP will go directionally- being patient -likely until 10 am- Saw an initial move higher at the open, but retracing 20 minutes in....



TSLA is Flat- Both F & GM got downgrades to Sells- Took a loss on F-
My cost basis on this portion of the TSLQ trade is $47.75 - so the stop is locking in a minor +2% gain- Potentially, TSLA will benefit from the downgrades?
The price action in TSLA is choppy- undecided- I used the swing low 10 am as a level from where I am setting a -take profits- stop below-


DOG hit my stop- Mid morning- short positions in QID,SARK,SDS are in the green-

The semi short SSG is not a position- is up +7% today.It stopped out on me last week- no free cash


Using the "Summary " feature in stockcharts is an easy way to see the performance- both intraday in real time- and one week through one year- As I can view this periodically during the day, it's a good measure of where the positions are going- If the intraday +/- column is in the green- that's a net positive-
If in the Red- That's worth noticing- Notice that I have both SMH and SSG included- One is long, one is a 2x short- one shows -4.20%, the other +9.12%
The intraday summary:


The 1 week summary:


The YTD month summary:Notice the best performer for this year-on this chart- SSG up +102% - the 2x leveraged short semis-
followed by


Energy is not showing strength today- Several Van positions stopped out- and my buys earlier today in Energy are in the Red-
Both XLE, XOP are pulling back to the fast ema-


Going into the Close- Van account giving back some recent gains-
IB short positions grindin g out small miniscule % gains.
Very Minor gains today in the IB but the short trades managed to grind out a few dollars $100/6k in gains today-
Stops expired today, and I will reset. CPI report on Wednesday- but the handwriting appears to be on the wall-
At least by several of the world's best financial managers- - We will see that we ultimately are heading lower-----
Valuations will be adjusted even lower- despite how far we have already declined-
Markets often overshoot to the upside- and also to the downside- Just because we have't been here since 2008-does not mean we cannot see losses of -40% .
incomprehensible to those that started trading in the last few years.....



EOD: IB -SMALL- BUT INCREMENTALLY HIGHER - Minor Gains - these remaining positions had a 50% sell on Friday- so down to about $6.5k in value-
But managed to chop around and Close up from 1-3% higher on the day....
It's my Bias that the markets will continue to punish those business sectors that are still overpriced with high PE's- but that volatility is not always as one expects-
I took partial profits on these positions at the Close on Friday- With lackluster price action today, the remaining 50% positions all netted gains- except for the DOG- which stopped out along with F.
Small gains, but grinding higher from the entry....But also keeps the position open for more potential declines in the underlying

[sd]

10-11-22
Up waay too early-
Reading Bloomberg- Article on why Treasuries continue to be sold off-
www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-10-10/the-most-powerful-buyers-in-treasuries-are-all-bailing-at-once?fromMostRead=true
Dan Nathan pointed out that GOVT has a mix of shorter dated T's- But when will it turn higher? When the Fed eases rate hikes...
This is pathetic- and a good promo for trend trading and active management-
Treasuries- supposedly slow but 'safe' and steady-eddy -right???
Here's the reality of a long term "safe" investment vehicle



I was thinking as I awoke in the early hours- When do we decide we are likely near the bottom- and i came to the bleary eyed conclusion that I should watch the value funds -from VTV to viov to ousm, ousa and then lets also watch the dividend payers-NOBL,SCHD, and similar ETFs....
I'm likely about to retake some of my managed by other funds and apply my own management - Going to interview TDAmeritrade as a potential broker for those funds- but, they will need to have some basics in portfolio construction-
Not certain how to slice and dice these, but value as a category has held up better than much of the market...
As we gradually roll out this continued decline, eventually the companies that are incorporated in "Value" funds should reach a bottom-potentially ahead of still highly priced growth and tech that likely have additional downside ...It just seems that should be a logical assertion-
As an exercise- let's compare the S&P- SPY, IWM to Large cap Value- VTV- small cap value- Hmmm- what is the best choice? AND LET'S INCLUDE SEVERAL DIVIDEND FUNDS-NOBL,SCHD,OUSM,OUSA

Notation- when I search for the small cap value ETFs- AVUV stands out for losing the least among it's peers-and VBR has the greatest AUM 22 vs AVuv 3 AUM-let's include both from this list:
etfdb.com/etfdb-category/small-cap-value-equities/




Let's get to a 1 year chart: LOTS OF LINES, DIFFICULT BUT IWM IS -25%, SPY -23% AND THE OTHER FUNDS ARE CLUSTERED HIGHER -13;TO -18%-

sAME CHART IN hISTOGRAM FORM:


sO, iF i CONSIDER THAT I had a mixed portfolio with different holdings- I would have liked to have some in those that lost a bit less-- This alone does not take into consideration potential differences in whether dividends would have been paid by one fund more than another- Something to be noted in a portfolio-
But, just taking performance into consideration- VTV -larg cap value -13.59 held up relatively well. The small cap AVUV is interesting in it's best performance in small caps and outperformed the large cap as well- Worth further comparisom

When I go to the Avantis website- a name I was not familiar with- I see they have a large suite of ETFs- Their large cap value-AVLV is -13.65- almost the same as VBR...

Futures are all in the red @ 7am....about -.75%
Article- What will signal when the market is at a bottom? CHANGE IN BONDS-
www.markethingych.com/story/heres-how-youll-know-stock-market-lows-are-finally-here-says-legendary-investor-who-called-87-crash-11665423583?itm_source=parsely-api&mod=mw_pushly&send_date=20221011
I've only got $2,278 in IB Clear to use to Buy- aDD TO QID,REK,SARK,SDS,TSLQ net gains as of yesterday on the remaining shares averages 5-7% (except REK +2%)
I THINK IT'S LIKELY THAT THE nASDAQ HAS FURTHER TO COME DOWN- QID
Shorting ARKK with SARK is a bet against TSLA- although I own TSLQ also. TSLQ is a recent 3 month old ETF
3 month charts :
TSLQ looks extended here-

SARK- just clearing prior week's level- modest 61 RSI, Stoch, ADX just upturning

QID- shorts Tech looks similar to SARK- Not extended

SDS shorts the S&P- potential to break out higher here...

REK-shorts realestate- Trending with a breakout last week after a pause -looks like a good steady mover-tight spreads-


5 WEEK PERFORMANCE OF THESE FUNDS



rEAL ESTATE SECTOR XLRE DOWN -20% IN THE PAST 4 WEEKS, AND WITH rATES RISING, Why will this decline reverse???


With the news about the Bank of England- and financials looking weak- I will CONSIDER takING a new position in SKF Today with the funds available.
Why not expect another financial shoe to drop- even in the US???


aT 8:30 AM - Futures are potentially flat-

Filled SKF At the open $24.71
9:50 - Short positions are gaining in the green- TSLQ losing .58%- will look to see a stop loss level to lock in prior gains.
uSING YESTERDAYS SWING LOWS-
Setting a stop just below them- will catch a small gain if hit- Indexes are all in the red so market weakness is evident as my other short positions are gaining -in the green



The rationale to take the SKF trade is expectation that Financials are vulnerable to more downside in this environment-
@ 10 am the indexes are all in the Red by 1-1.5%, and the TSLQ trade is back in the green as TSLA is dropping to a new -1% low.
SARK position is a big relative gainer today -up 3.65% carrying TSLA and other high spec ARKK names-
@ 10:15 am- Note GBTC is not a position in this account- just wanted to track where bitcoin is heading -may consider the bitcoin inverse tomorrow as remaining cash clears..




I was filled 90 SKF at the open @ $24.70 - so far it has bullishly moved in my direction
Setting a stop just below yesterdays pm swing lows- $24.70- A wider stop $23.70 would be a greater loss but less likely to get whipsawed.


Seeing drops in the energy positions in the Van accounts- Rolling with those around the 8k investment level there with a larger % presently held in cash-
Intention is to reenter a number of those Long positions at a lower cost basis. OIL price is dropping today.

Markets stabilizing mid AM 10:31- earlier 'gains' seen in the profit column getting smaller-
setting some stops to net


Going long energy,value

Had an appointment this pm, got back to find SARK and SDS hit my stop for net gains- SKF trade is losing momentum and is now in the red- has not yet stopped out-

EOD- SARK,SDS stop out for small gains on a market surge that failed to hold-
So those trades were whipsaweds intraday by my tight stops to net a small gain versus just protecting my cost of entry-
It certqinly appeared that a rally was underway, and it propmpted me to jump into some energy back in the Van accounts- that lost the reversal higher momentum! IB is backabove 19k - so grinding out a few pennies there- I think the downtrend in financials continues- and the BoE credit crisis likely will end up affecting some US institutions .....

[sd]

Woke up 4 am again, but went back to sleep finally! Got to up the ZZZquil!
Futures are in the green slightly @ 9am.....
Got freed $$$$ available in the IB- I'm going to see if my short positions get stopped out or pullback- and likely will follow them on the 5 min chart- look to add to them-on a dip down and that early turn up.

Had some energy and took value positions in Van yesterday-
I'm going to consider the small cap value ETF if we see a market bounce AVUV.

Inverse funds: TO CONSIDER SSG,TSLQ,QID,SKF,SDS,DOG,REK
sMALL POSITIONS HOLDING THIS AM WITH STOPS-IN QID,REK,SKF,TSLQ

Semis may have been oversold yesterday-SSG- Real estate should continue to decline in this overpriced market REK, will add to the other positions if the market makes a rally and then declines

Buying an opening position in SSG $38.26 at the open- small 30 shares- let's see how it acts in the 1st 30 minutes

Want to allow a few minutes to see directionally
15 minutes in - Markets holding up -bad PPI report
Tightening stops a bit to lock in a bit larger gain-QID presently $27.80 -Tech seems to be trying to rally- stop $27.25
SSG entry in the red $1-
AVUV sm cap value dropping - not jumping in here-
Doubled the Real Estate Short to 100 shares REK $22.23 avg cost
Financials short- SKF- Financials are struggling in this environment- SKF is trying to make a new high - The CPI report tomorrow may push this higher-
TSLQ is a winning position- I will add to this position @ $52.09 Prior position was 30 @ $47.75 now avg cost 45 $49.21-
Dbld QID, -had 50 $25.83- add 50 $28.07 Avg cost 100 $26.97 stop $27.25
NEOG -spec day trade -breaking out higher Big relative volume. - from a long persistant downtrend- modest earnings last week- has a Zack's sell- will set a stop below the intraday swing low @ $11.90...

Trade is potentially working higher- stop can be raised a bit higher - $12.10 below the intraday swing low $12.21/50 ema

@ 3:55 PM- LACKLUSTER PRICE FOLLOW THRU...


Day trade on unusual price action - NEOG 50 @ $12.49 -stop $11.90 Has a Zacks Sell - long downtrend- managed to eek out a pos earnings last week.
Just a day trade - initial stop below the VWAP $12.00- will adjust higher

Small entry position in MRNA on "News" that they are combining to research their cancer drug approach with Merck- The technology could be a significant game changer in drug applications if it proves viable or effective- This is a long term potential investment- but it should not decline below the $115.00 level.
Potentially, I will add to this on a pullback into the lower area to reduce my avg cost- keeping $115 lows as a place to bail out if it closes below that low level.

I did start a position in the small cap Value fund AVUV a few moments ago-in the Van account-
There is a whole lot of high volume trading usually in the last 10 minutes of every day . Likely



MASI looks to be setting up for a potential oversold bounce higher-
Taking this as a trade - Medical instrument space- Since I just
I set a buy-stop limit to enter if price exceeded the recent mid day high $131.65 -$131.80 Filled at the limit $131.80-


Mostly Red in the IB later 3 pm - Stops in place for a potential market rally tomorrow.
Added to FCG -nat gas position on this pullback -

CPI release tomorrow - is what the market's in a holding pattern on....A bearish CPI -as interpreted by the FED would press for a continuation of high rates moving forward- bearish for growth/tech-

2 additional orders for AVUV- a lower limit to buy 20 $69.01 & a buy-stp limit at a move up through $70.05 -prior high today was $70.11.
This is in the Van account- This AVUV is one of the most stable small caps ETFs posted on a prior post -(Yesterday?) So this is my thinking that the market is very much oversold on the value side- and so I'm building what could be investment positions in SCHD, VTV, and AYUV.
I also held my energy positions in the weakness this week- meant to add at lower pricing- Energy moved back higher today

bUYING ccj ON THE GAP DOWN- NUCLEAR - they are buying another company expanding ...


IB- Bought AAPD- Aapl short on "news' that AAPL will withhold some healthcare benefits to employees trying to unionize.$29.32 cost...5 minutes before the Close

The spec NEOG hit my stop 2 minutes before the Close.

Post Close AMAT warns that it is lowering it's guidance- warns about the Chip restriction being suggested by the Gov'tas materially having a negative impact-
Let's assume this will add to weakness in the Semi sector- and should benefit my SSG short semi position. Unless the semis are getting washed out...