SD's - Final Shot-2013-

[sd]

The jobs # came this am pre-open is dismal aT 88,000, LESS THAN 1/2 OF THE MODERATE # EXPECTED.

My remaining FAS position is now below my stop-and dropping.
My healthcare stops CURE & XLV are likely to be taken out as well.
Gold will rally on this fear, & premarket trading is taking my DZZ trade down lower and will likely hit my my break-even stop-

The pundits on CNBC - including normally Bullish Cramer - are focusing that this is indeed very negative-"There is no silver lining"
with this jobs report.
With some limited free cash, I will look to take a counter trade short today-.Could have considered tza when I sold the tna position- but thought we were likely just in a sideways move vs a real shorting opportunity. It's already up 4% premarket-
Going in a more conservative position, I will take a position in HDGE .

[sd]

Friday was interesting-After several weeks of little focus on the markets, I had Friday off and got to watch the show in real time.
The futures were down to begin with, and the markets have been churning the past weeks. Europe again was a concern with the Cypress bank fiasco all in the news. Financials had started to break below recent support levels several days earlier, but I held the position with a wider stop,
There was a 6 member discussion on CNBC , and Goolsbee was the most bearish with a 149,000 employment number. The remainder of the panel went higher in their estimates- The majority were in the 175,000 range ,and a couple were "bullish" with estimates over 200,000.
The actual # was under 100,00- a "disaster' by all accounts.
The "interesting" part is that I saw the potential sell-off but
was unable to sell premarket-
The opening was the most dramatic part of the day, with the supposed sell-off defusing as the day proceeded.
To my interpretation, this was the market's opportunity to have a sharp sell-now and ask questions later-
The way the day ended, the market sell-off was muted and prices closed much higher than at the open.
This seems to be a market that is not ready to toss in the towel.

[sd]

Positions taken Friday:
BIB $87.01;
RXL $121.24
URE $86.95
DXJ $46.74
FAS $57.08
As Blygh has pointed out- Live by leverage, Die by leverage-
One has to be willing to pay greater attention to detail- and perhaps be willing to Risk more to gain more.
As some additional volatility has come into the market, and perhaps some seasonality, I find myself back at square 1 with the account value $8,574, having a few hundred dollars knocked out by stops perhaps too tight.
I think I am ready to acknowledge that I have not acquired the skills necessary to "beat" the market by trading- There is no real reason to go into all the contributing factors- or excuses- choose your analysis-
At this point in time, I am willing to capitulate that I cannot find the energy & skill to develop a level of consistency that will allow me to meet or exceed the market's performance.
In the future, I will give some thought as to the many Why's I have essentially failed, and am reaching the conclusion that I will become a disciple of John Bogle's investing approach. Low cost index investing comes as close to replicating the market return as possible year after year.
Tomorrow is April 15- If you have not done so, Fund yourself a Roth IRA with TD Ameritrade before the end of the day for 2012-
Later, SD

[bankedout]

In my opinion, you should consider 2 options before throwing in the towel.

1. Take a break from the markets. Sit in cash. Think about what you have done right or wrong over the past couple of years. Consider how you could do better. Come up with a potential trading plan.

2. Focus. When/if you come back, trade only 1 instrument for a while. Hold yourself accountable to moves in that instrument. Meaning if that ETF or Stock moved up without you tagging along for the ride, you take responsibility for that.

Other than that, maybe re-read a classic book: Reminiscences of a Stock Operator by Edwin Lefevre This book has stood the test of time.

Good luck in whatever you choose to do.

[sd]

Thanks for offering your opinion & suggested options-
Good suggestions all.
I have Lefevre on the shelf above-Thank you- a good read, will at some point find the time to read it again.
Presently, other demands are more pressing - or I at least am choosing to prioritize them that way-
However, I have made an intentional decision in the near term to allow my trades listed to "ride" without active stops for the time being. Although I am not accustomed to allow a wider volatility swing, I think that as long as the FED is being "accomodative" , the markets will continue to find reasons to try to churn a bit higher. This is opposite my Bias that the musical will stop one of these days, and there won't be enough chairs in the room for the US to keep a seat.
I may change that status or choose to take the loss in the weeks ahead; or incorporate stops at a wider technical level.
At this point, I am willing to undergo a wider volatility swing to sustain a longer term trade- If the direction is totally breached to the downside, I will cry UNCLE at that point.
On the plus action side, I have funded Roth accounts for 2012 with TD Ameritrade- for my wife and myself with a focus to a long term invest approach with periodic rebalancing. They offer 100 commission free etf's and a no maintencance charge on retirement accounts- Might consider going directly to Vanguard.............
Will expand on that in the other thread in the future.
Regards,

[sd]

There was an interesting market mini drop today due to a false AP release on Twitter- that affected the markets for about 4 minutes.
Undoubtedly, this move caught those with tight stops by the short hairs-
I am still long at this point, and pleased to see that prices appear to be trying to move back higher. Whether there will be any sustained move higher- is indeed questionable- This is April 23-
Seasonality suggests that there is a 50% good reason to exit here and raise more cash. But 50% is also what you simply get with a coin flip.....
Earnings & the Fed's stance will set the tone of the market-
Holding Biotechs, Housing, Financials, Healthcare and Japan.

[sd]

It's been an interesting month or so since I entered long these positions - tenatively with no stops attached and eventually with wider stops attached-
With no trading commissions and a bull market, the portfolio value has increased a bit over 8%,in this one month- and we're midway through MAY.
This has been an unusual year of gains for the market- and many are undoubtedly correct in promoting the concept that we are overdue for a correction.
I cannot assume what will derail this market- seasonality, earnings, political drama- will occur this week or this month- so I will continue to hold this portfolio, and will adjust stops using Renko on a weekly basis if needed.
I have found that I am getting productive use of my time away from the computer & focus on trading- that has been providing a different kind of dividend.
Good luck- Don't fight the Fed!

[sd]

Today's port value $9557- a net +2% + gain in one day......
It would be irrational to assume that this momentum movement of the market will continue unabated- I think we have broken multi year historical trends for those that collect such info.
In what seems to be a time that one should expect the worst from the market, it is rallying on- and if you were short based on seasonality- or simply on the sidelines, and defensive, the rally has sent dust flying.
That said, I have decided i will tighten stops using the daily Renko, ensuring that all positions would yield a decent gain if stopped out. BIB is the outperformer with a 20+ gain at present.
I will also plan to employ the Renko to reenter a resumption of the trade following a stop out.

[sd]

The BIB position pulled back yesterday and hit the stop today-
I'm expecting that the remaining positions could possibly pullback as well- The run up has been unusual - one could likely say extraordinary.
As much as one tries to define their trading universe by applying certain methodologies to provide a level of certainity,
along comes a period - flash crash-or extended rally, such as we are presently in: these events fall outside of our expectations of what is "normal" or "should be"
I think it is indeed prudent to ratchet the stops to a tighter level on trades long the momentum.
I gave back the 2% in a single day of pullback. I don't plan to give back 5%.

[sd]

www.direxionfunds.com/literatures/direxion-shares-online-university
Just Posting the link here- I have not taken the course -

[sd]

My remaining positions were stopped out last week-
The Japanese market dropped a 1,000 pts in a day- or approx 7% ,
I am pleased that I had adjusted stops to a faster time frame (daily) with the Renko , vs holding a slower time frame-
This now seems the time to implement more tactical trading for those so inclined-
Presently in cash in the trading account and looking to potentially reduce exposure further in the IRA_ The Bond funds have rolled over this past week. This may become the net buying opportunity if a pullback shakes the market- Haven't kept up with the market news much. Port value $9197- so a bounce from the abyss.

[sd]

I had not been actively following the market much, took a couple of short trades the prior week with HDGE and stopped out.Acct down to $9,000.
With the concerns about the FED, the market's 2 day reaction was an attention getter-
I waited until late morning on Thursday and the selling continued, so I took a short position with TZA, and SDS-
Factors that contributed to the market weakness:
Fed may quit the easy money policy- Could have been viewed as a positive meaning the Fed believes the economy can stand on it's own- market is doubtful-
Seasonality- Perhaps the hisatorically typical weaker summer season saw profit taking from this years large gains to date. That is likely prudent-
Fears about China rebound in the news- Everyone knows that China is slowing- now there are rumors of some serious malaise within it's financial institutions- Could they have their own version of a housing bubble imploding?
Japan- Had a very strong uptrend going-built on the Bank of Japan's aggressive monetary policy (Fed like?) until last month when it's market fell into decline.
We'll see how these short trades pan out- I will give these some elbow room -expecting greater volatility in the weeks ahead-

[sd]

covered the short with market sell on the rally today. tradeswill be executed at the open.

[sd]

I went long 90% in the trading account today-
I purchased both FAS & KRE, Financials and regional banks
Also purchased RXL, BIB, in the healthcare and biotech.
I took a position in DZZ-$ Gold seems likely to be oversold, but if it breaks here, it goes down to 1,000. At the close I am down on DZZ and higher on the balance.

I had also gone primarily into cash in the IRA-
I added back 20% long positions in American companies, small cap worlwide,.
Interesting- Note the Russel 2000 $rut is right at all-time highs- So, I have to go with the premise that small caps lead- and these are trying to move higher- This is indeed bullish for the market- That's not to say there won't be a lot of volatility- but with Obamacare on hold for a year, that is one less arrow in the market recovery

[sd]

Back from a long drive to visit an ailing friend in Upstate NY-
I was taken by surprize when I chose to stop for gas at a station in NJ- An Indian male - with a turban on his head- was at the car at the pump ahead, ; He walked back to my car as I pulled up to the pump-I opened my window- said a tenative "hello" he said "hello" and said CASH?
I said SIR? thinking this guy is hitting me up for a handout.
He then responded with "Cash or credit?" and I then realized he worked there- I gave him my crfedit card, and he started fueling the truck-
It turns out that New Jersey does not have any self serve stations- All stations are full service-certainly provides some jobs- and the gaS was cheaper-

The Fed has apparently calmed the market's with their talking of still being accomodative- and the US markets seem to be shining compared to much of the rest of the world- Japan's market is moving back higher, and I will look at DXJ again as a momentum trade.
The DZZ trade - short Gold- I was stopped out on- I expected the Gold trend would resume another leg lower- If the markets are finding reasons to go higher, they see an improved future.
As one commentator noted- The stock market is not the economy-The stock market is concerned about profitibility within the economy- and the future potential for continued profitibility-

The remaining positions FAS, KRE,RXL, BIB have been trending higher.
Small caps are still driving higher-So, If it is said that small caps often lead in the early stages of a recovery, are we seeing the early stage of a greater advance? Both the Dow & S&P are making new highs.-