sd's -Adapting in 2011

[sd]

Wed-
neither of the solar oriented plays had any follow through higher today, yet the market was down considerably. I cancelled both trades this pm,
Expiration week, vix up, market is volatile- and undecided -
too many unknowns- more risk to the downside-
Most of the trades I had taken on Friday, stopped out, and are now even lower.

Will see where this goes to before i venture again.SD

[bankedout]

FAN a wind energy ETF might be worth keeping an eye on too.

[sd]

I just saw Fan as your horse race pick and noted how Fan looks stronger compared to Tan the solar-
I would think that with the Japan disaster, alternative energies will become much more in favor .
I will consider Fan as a possible trade. It has a "theme" and a price chart that has promise-Thanks for suggesting-SD

[sd]

This Sunday am is flying by, as has the week.
Got to hit the garden, wanted to post some charts that I'm trying to follow up with from the past week's losing trades.

Every position I took was stopped out in the span of 2 market days. for almost a 2+% port loss.
My entries were on the prior Friday, while the Japan earthquake, tsunami, and nuclear were all items in the news.

stock selection is obviously 1 key ingredient to making successful trades. My trades were based on charts, and a quick look at what seemed to be presenting itself as an opportunity.

I took some varied positions, based on charts- Thinking that SLV would take a strong move higher as there would be economic repercussions from Japan being hit hard. I asssumed that SLV would turn back higher and resume it's recent uptrend.
WRONG!
A few charts, more later if time allows-

In the case of these trades, the best loss was the smallest - SD

[sd]

A busy week went by- the only position I took was CSU, with a pending Fan order not reaching the extended price I put on it.
Interestingly, The San trade I was early on, and this week it went from 78 to 84+ It almost looks ready to try and reverse the downtrend. This is not a rec, just an observation, and I'm not pursuing it unless it truly reverses to the upside.
Time is certainly going to be a limiting factor going forward, and so I've decided that on the weekend I'll look through uptrending stocks making new 52 week highs , and make some picks from them. Last week there was some 53, and this week over 200...on the nyse.
With all the potential unknowns, the market still wants to push higher- hard to believe.
SA telecom stocks were big this week, as were a number of energy stocks, chemical stocks.
I'm going to give this week's picks initially a bit of leeway with some trailing stops judged on daily volatility- Most will be Buy-stop entries and will only be filled if price moves higher.
I did decide to go after some NFLX- Don't know whether this stock moves because of investors or short covering.
Here's the trades for the week: SD

[sd]

Trade update for the week of 3-28-4-3
3-28 Filled on 5 trades + holding CSU

70 FCG $23.14
7 NFLX $237.59 ($10 trail stop)
30 DST $52.14
10 EOG $116.93
25 xop $63.50

Except for NFLX, these trades were generated from stocks making a new 52 week high list.
FCG, EOG, XOP -energy sector moving on the nat gas momentum that is finally getting widespread attention.
CSU- a senior living
NFLX- Very spec as to whether it has a successful business model
and upside moves may be exaggerated by short covering.
DST-IT company- Unfamiliar with the Ticker, I checked it out on yahoo and saw that it had both a low PE and earnings of over $6.
I don't normally even look at or consider these statistics, but
Compared against other similar stocks, it looked priced low, with a good uptrending chart- So it had both chart and financials looking decent.

Choosing stocks that are already higher is asking to get some whipsaw, and my tight stops were hit in EOP, and XOG. I had implemented trailing stops, and had a $33 loss on XOP 3-29 and a $4 loss on EOG.
Fan had moved (gapped ) above my order , and mid week I elected to Buy Ree- and it promptly went negative on me.

Still in the position but it's pushing to my stop.

No time for charts, have to break additional ground in the garden this Sunday am- SD

[sd]

I'm giving these so-far winning trades some room and not raising stops immediately.
I don't like the price action on
Ree and have tightened stops.
put on 2 additional trades-MDRX & SLV.
SD

[sd]

Update- Wed 4-06-2011
I was surprised to find that energy sold off today- Still mideast unrest and higher oil?
FCG hit my stop by $.02 used the daily- What can I say?
I was also filled on SLV today @ $38.40.

It appears there is some sector rotation starting, and so I've placed an order in Financials- Buy-stop entry C $4.60 , limit $4.62.
SD

[sd]

Quick update-
Positions open- DST, 1/2 REE, SLV.

I had a nice profit going in REE - 1/2 of the position stopped out well below what I see as the intraday low mid week. It's one of those things where the broker says it was a documented trade but that is not reflected in the chart program. It may be a moot point as it has since pulled back and that profit is now marginal/.
I've been giving some distance with stops and not being aggressive and raising daily- That may prove to not be a prudent move-at this time- Been too busy to log-in daily.
I'm also considering adding more to the SLV position, as a play on the eroding dollar . Don't know how Bernake can continue to push the market higher- SLV seems to outperform Gold as a "hedge" against inflation. Don't have the stomach for AGQ.....

Sold NFLX @ $235.49 Was hoping for a short covering bounce there, but it was unable to push above the prior high.

The market continues to surprize- Gov't almost shutdown this past week- and a new vote comes on the new budget.
Perhaps the best trade will be to go long the VXX as volatility is sure to increase.
SD

[sd]

4-14 update-
DST stopped out today $53.57 Entry 3-28 @ $52.17 minor gain.
Ree and SLV continue to trend higher.
Had 2 China play buy orders fill today-
BIDU -partial @145.62, didn't move .
and YOKU $57.60 which popped $7 - Don't know why.
Raising stop to lock in some gain @63.00
Considering adding GLD- Doesn't move as much as SLV.
Will enter GLD with a $144 buy-stop and a $140 stop-loss.
That's about a 3% Risk.
Raising the stop on SLV to $140.

The VXX- at some point will pop higher. Don't know why there is not greater market volatility . At present it is downtrending, and making a second bottom. I think I'm a sucker for even considering the contrarian play- I'll stay with what's trending higher- With my limited market info access, We'll see how this month works out- SD

[sd]

YOKU Trade:
Turns out to be a 1 day trade . It had a nice $7 upmove the day I entered, and I chose to tighten the stop on that move, and lock-in the potential profit.
The Friday move was down slightly, but still closed well above the daily ema and the prior day's open.
I was hoping for a parabolic move higher.
I took a position in BIDU as it's trying to get past 147.
I'll likely keep the $140 stop unless it breaks lower.

[sd]

Contrarian Play- Looking for a bounce on the vxx - very tight stop

What justifies even taking this spec play?
I do occaisionally buy a lottery ticket- And my sentiment-

I think there should be an opportunity for this to bounce based on it being a double bottom, high volume selling the prior 4 weeks., 60 minute/15 minute charts show some end of day price stabilizes.

Tight stop under 1% risking $.20 , and the trade is underweight -only 2/3.

Remaining trades focus is to stay/ go with the trend.
SD

[sd]

Mon 4-18- Time to make a few comments-Trade update
The VXX did indeed reverse and pop higher, but sold off as the day proceeded. Will continue with the same stop, give it a chance to make a follow-through move higher.
The S*P downgraded the US Gov't debt today- go figure.
Dow was down some 140 pts.

China plays continue to move- Yoku moved higher,
I had taken a position in SINA and it popped $10 today- Chinese internet portal/advertiser/community
SLV gained, UGL gained, Ree gave back some, and Bidu is back at entry. Concerned that REE is not participating in a rare commodity rally.
DANG - Chinese commerce gave indications it may try to get out of the downtrend it's been in.
I have no free cash available at present.

The rise of Gold & Silver continues, and I think these could get derailed by the Fed saying they were going to tighten the fiscal purse strings. That would threaten the markets with fiscal responsibility....
For the moment, I'm trailing stops at a distance. I will likely see what the market does tomorrow, and consider splitting the stops on positions I have a nice profit in. SD

[sd]

Tues-4-19-2011
The VXX trade stopped out today @ $27.60
This was $.03 above my entry cost on a raised stop .

Essentially, I took a spec lottery play betting against the trend, with a reduced position size and defensively raised my stop to break even.

The other positions moved higher- SLV, UGL, sina, bidu

I see that DANG moved higher today as well.

SD

[sd]

Thought I'd visit some recent stopped out trades where the 60 minute chart took me out.
This example of DST- a recent position- illustrates what can happen- particularly if one doesn't have hard stops in place.
Note that prior breaks of the uptrend had been relatively benign.