sd's -Adapting in 2011

[sd]

Nice to be long when the market trys to put in a bit of a rally!
All 5 positions are net profitable, but XLF is right at my BE stop.
Since the market has now put in 5 up days- I'll be closing stops with the expectation of a sell off eventually this week .I would expect funds to be locking in profits before year end.

AAPL has moved up strongly the past few days , and it's likely also funds positioning themselves- There's 'talk' of what AAPL can do- from issuing a dividend, to an AAPLE TV service.....

I'm presently 80% invested in my trading account,

Good Luck, and a belated Merry Christmas to all! SD

[sd]

The "rally" has weakened today- I had 2 positions stop out at B.E. on raised stops. TNA & xlf net $0 on both.
UPW & AAPL stops are above entry not yet hit.
DZZ had a nice 5% gain over the past 2 days.
Considering the VIXY for a possible entry tomorrow.
$76.30 buy- $76.60 limit ; $75.30 stop
SD

[sd]

The interesting thing about using a 60 minute chart vs a daily chart, is that it gives you an hourly view of what the investing/trading community is believing about that particular stock, etf through the course of the day.
DZZ gapped higher at the open, and then proceeded to sell-off the remainder of the day and essentially filled the gap.
It also generated a Sar SELL signal about midday.
As an EOD,. I'll raise my stop to $5.50- just $.01 bel;ow the low of the day.
I have every expectation that price will open lower Friday-
Had a nice upside bounce in UPW & AAPL got back up to $405-
The VIXY buy-stop was never hit, and VIXY opened lower as the market rallied.
Good Luck, SD

[sd]

Using the DZZ trade with a prior chart illustrating what I believe is the "benefit" of using a 60 minute chart in a choppy environment- for those that are not able or willing to daytrade.

In a nut shell, the 60 minute chart gives faster and more potential signals than a daily chart.
This could result in frequent whipsaw trades.
By adding a price volatility indicator that is very responsive- Parabolic Sar, it gives an added perspective to entering or exiting a trade.

While my belief is Gold is likely going lower, it has already declined 20% this year- I'm not trading my "belief" , I'm trading the 60 minute price chart.
I anticipate a bounce off the recent sell, and the 60 min chart has my stop-loss quite close to the closing price. If proved wrong and stopped out, I will potentially reenter if price moves higher.
If stopped out, I will look to the inverse - UGL, GLL .

I'm not looking at popular indicators- MACD, Stochastic, -
just price, some fast emas, and parabolic sar.

This requires one to be an "active" trader, in that one should adjust stops daily on any positions, based on the technicals, and willing to take an early stop-loss (usually 'smaller')

Good Luck, SD

[sd]

Well written article on Gold. if you're a Gold Bull.
www.financialsense.com/contributors/george-karahalios/2011/12/22/when-is-gold-too-precious-plotting-a-future-exit-strategy

[sd]

Rewrite -Summary 2011.
Lost money in my trading.
Account balance $9,325.00 -down some 7%.

It was a year marked by market volatility, our financial crisis seemed to stabilize, and then got torpedoed by the European financial crisis- still unresolved.

I transitioned from trading stocks to primarily ETF's.

This was a way for me to narrow my trading universe.

I tried to gain a better understanding of the forces that moved the market, and to generally orient my trades directionally with a "theme".

The sharp market volatility-over weeks - with the market moving 500 pts and reversing in 3-4 days, made anyone holding a single directional theme bite their lip , question any stops in place. I became convinced by trading on a chart faster than the daily during this time.
On page 11 of this thread, I did a 'Backtest' of trading SDS using different time frames. I infrequently traded SDS, but the backtest "proved" that the method I was using succeeded only when one traded on signals on a very fast chart- I believe it was a 30 minute chart- Which meant one had to be at the computer during the trading day and respond to each signal. The net gains of the faster chart were impressive though.
While the volatility has eased, backtesting one's approach on different time frame signals is something worth doing IMO.
For those that use indicators/oscillators, they may wish to change the time frame to make the indicator more responsive.


One of those Themes was trading Gold- both long and short with UGL and Dzz. It was noteable that Gold, with all the uncertainty, made a new high and since has sold off some 20%
Strong dollar/weak dollar, Fed intervention and rate decisions- I don't have the economic savvy to be able to explain the "WHY" Gold is down, when it seems it should be the safety trade .

I also traded AAPL - and have a new position active at present. I was thinking it should be a 'core' position, but AAPL had also failed to move or lead the market higher,and I was able to buy AAPL on several pullbacks . I had a couple of good winning trades, a couple of small stop outs, and it was as much a trading exercise as a desire to be in a stock that almost everyone has higher expectations for.
Despite the "belief" of what AAPL should have in store longer term, I am resolved to not allow that expectation to allow me to lose money in the position..

My trading eased this fall, as I saw my losses , and realized I needed to be able to focus on what was happening in the market and with my trades. I was finishing one job, starting another, and deer hunting season opened, requiring me to choose priorities, and I elected to spend much of my evenings up in a tree with bow and arrow in hand. Today is the last day of Deer season here in NC.

My DZZ trade stopped out Friday as I had anticipated.
It was a decent gain, as price came back and started to lose momentum and I tightened the stop directly below price.
The gain could have been better, had I perhaps targeted selling half of the position at a limit sell when it was moving up.
Leveraged ETF's- As Blygh pointed out "Live by Leverage, Die by leverage".
I'm tenatively thinking I don't mind the 2x ultra, but the 3x funds are perhaps best left for day traders, or someone with their finger on the trigger.

Regardless, often the reversal of a trade would be seen with a gap up well away from the prior day's price close, and if one wasn't in the position on the prior day, you were left to chase it- if you dared.

In closing out this 2011 thread, I would like to say thank you to those that have contributed their thinking and trades on this board and also on this thread.

I hope we all see a profitable 2012!

Regards,
SD

[sd]

Peter Schiff is still pounding the table that a day of reckoning is ahead.
Back in March 2009, he was talking about how we got into trouble with the "Bubbles" tech & real estate.

I'm sure there are more recent videos- thought this one explaining "What Happened" by gov't manipulation is historically accurate-
Long video-http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=EgMclXX5msc#!