sd's -Adapting in 2011

[sd]

Today hurt, and my Friday short-focused entries all stopped out for losses. AAPL position rallied. wiped out my previous enthusiasm for Mondays! LOL!
The good news was prompted by the interpretation that Europe appears capable of trying to get it's fiscal ailments in order-
This may be a short term perspective that buoys the market until the next boogey-man comes from Europe, but it does definitely suggest that one needs to be ready to not rushing into fighting this market move

" I won't let my bias cloud what my vision sees in the charts."

At 5:30 am I was seeing the positive futures and well received news from Europe that would likely send the mkts higher

I considered making all my stops market sell orders early this am, but instead decided to let the trades work out- at least until the open was in play. Trade the plan.
I realized that my stops were set favorably by the 60 min chart, and that making a trading decision 4 hours ahead of the mkt open left too many different possibilities at risk- I would need to make that judgement closer to the market open.
As things worked out, I was unable to find time this work day to access my account until much later in the work day....
And the results were much as I anticipated.

As it turns out, the financial short was hit later in the day 12:15 and that trade cost me the most- I could have salvaged some of that- and potentially reversed the positions. Had i been able to get on line....
Fortunately, I had only taken partial entry positions in these trades -except the financials- and would have added to them on moves higher.
Not being able to monitor trades intraday limits my ability to respond to changing conditions.
That said, I believe that-even with limited hours available,
if I apply a consistant approach to the markets, I will succeed as long as I can enter into and out of a trade within 1 trading day.
The results will lag a real-time entry/reversal of course-

I have not yet decided on what trade I take for tomorrow- Or if I push any trade after today's gap higher.
I will review the charts, and likely make only long trades, perhaps limit buys.....on a possible pullback ....

Getting to tonight's point- Learn to think in % and not $$$.

When one considers one's trading, don't focus on the dollar value per se , but focus on the % one gains or loses over time.
By using a % value, one can 'relate' how one's trading is developing- vs trying to compare a dollar amount.
The trader with a $250,000.00 account and the trader with the $2,500.00 account are light years apart in $$$ value, but a
$2500 account with a $1,000.00 gain means that trader did better than the $250,000.00 account that saw a $5,000 gain.
The same is true for taking losses. The $250,000 account could lose 1% ($2500.00) on a single trade.
The $2500 account that loses $25.00 has lost 1%.
The $2500 account that loses $2500.00 is out of business.

We all have trading accounts of different values- some greater, some lesser.

What counts is learning to trade to gain more - or lose less- on a percentage basis, trade averaged over trade. year in, year out. Ideally, we turn that $2500.00 into $250,000.00

Tonight my trading account value is $9,288.00 and I lost 1.7% on the total account value today.
What % did you gain -or lose on your account?
Did you lose More? Less? Did You Gain?

Chart- My trading account- SD
Btw- I don't care if the latest CNBC commercial says "SIZE Matters!" LOL

[sd]

After having been soundly routed by the market's bullish action Monday, I have been unable to get any perspective on what is happening in the markets due to additional work demands, and the timer in my DVR failing to properly activate-
It sounds like the European contagion has been pushed to a back burner in the near term,
I believe AAPL re[ports next week, and today's price action was less than stellar- Broke the fast ema with a SAR sell:

AAPL showed some weakness today, after gapping higher at the open and then closing down, almost meeting yesterday's close.
I debated with myself about just buying some AAPL and hanging on for where it goes, but in the final analysis, I have to be suspect of it's price action- anticipating that next week's earnings report should have expectations high -
At this point, I'm putting in a $399 stop on my $360 entry.
I can always reenter- perhaps lower-SD

[sd]

It appears that the market rally had some legs this past week.
I've been too busy with work- and traveling between 2 jobsites,
and without an ability to access the markets - I didn't want to have a repeat of getting trounced by changing trends- I had a substantial 1 day loss % wise by being on the wrong side of the market over the weekend.- Also kind of 'licking my wounds'

I had to "rethink" AAPL as a core position- or what my definition of what one should allow a "core"position to do - Certainly shouldn't become a losing position- particularly after my first entry had gained and then proceeded to roll over and lose.
I think my first trade was $396 entry,(3 shares) with an initial stop raised to $390- and then I convinced myself, that perhaps that was too tight for a $400 stop, and widened it to $380. which proved to be just a way to lose more money on the trade.

My reentry trade appears to have worked out, and I purchased 4 shares
Updated 60 min chart-
Starting a home remodel/replacement windows project this Sunday, should take a few weekends to complete-

[sd]

AAPL opened higher today, and had a lower close $419.99.
The Nas dropped some 50 pts today, The DOW down some 247 after successive days of rallies.
This stop is generated by a $415.46 SAR level, just below the 20 ema. I have chosen to hold back 1 SAR LEVEL.

It should be expected that the larger market should pullback after a substantial consecutive days rally. However, this also comes with some earnings that may be interpreted as less than stellar-
Call it profit taking- or the beginning of a 5-10% mkt pullback?
We simply don't know what tomorrow will become.
My stop is set at $414.00 SD

[sd]

For tomorrow- a tenative 20 shares EPV Buy $52.12, lmt $52.30
Stop $50.00.
This is a Buy-stop entry based on the "news"
that there may be some hiccup in the Euroland-

Vix gained today-
taking the VIXY trade- with a buy-stop above today's close. $96.--$97.00 buy stop lmt. STP $95. Lmt sell $110 Just 10 shares.

I do think that a longer term trade in Energy could be a theme going forward in the US- iT MAY BE IN gAS, oil, nUCLEAR-

I had brought up some articles from Seeking Alpha- some 6 months old- and this will require some research- Just buying the XLE as a broad energy play may see positive results- but S.A suggested XLES, PXI , XOP-
This would be a better post in the ETF thread, will try to find more updated info and post there- SD

[sd]

I was positioned on the wrong side in today's trades!
Apparrently France and Germany came to some kind of agreement that helped rally the mkts today. That took me by surprise and of course my order was filled when EPV opened higher the first hour and then reversed sharply- helping the markets rally.
That killed my vixy trade, as well as EPV- becoming a big loser as well, not yet hitting my stop though- In after hours I hear Moody's has now downgraded Spain- that may help this trade fractionally tomorrow. I do not think it will make this a winning trade though....... I have raised my initial stop to $49.70- the present after-hours trade price.
The Icing on the day is that in After hours, AAPL has gapped down on a serious miss on earnings- I see it at $395 in after hours, well below my $414 stop. No telling where it will actually open in the am- I'm leaving my $414 stop in place, as AAPL is trying to spin some damage control on the earnings miss. AAPL's first miss since 2004 and it was a large one., I have had in place an AAPL buy @ $337 limit,(don't expect a fill there) and will see what shakes out over the next couple of days. AAPL is raising expectations for the next quarter in the after-hours conference- I still think there will be a sharp pullback despite the spin.
The remaining trade-PSCE has moved up - a play on energy.
I had only taken a partial position, and will consider adding to this. It had a big gap higher in the last hour.
SD

[sd]

AAPL -after the initial drop in dissappointing earnings- has only modestly declined in a market that is rising.
If the market had been selling off- or should it do so in the weeks ahead- what will support AAPL at this $400 level?
The prior pullback broke the uptrend line, falling back to the $350-$360 range that price has bounced from.
I expect AAPL to pullback to that range-eventually - and a good buy opp.

[blygh]

The chartist in me is says you are right re: trading range - but the fundamentalist in me says the sales are down in the last quarter only because people knew that the new iPhone was going to be available in October. I think the iPad 2 will top the Christmas gift list (along with 3D TVs - buying LPL) . In other words I think you sell Apple at your peril.

[ira85]

The first thing I thought of after Steve Jobs died was what happened to Walmart after Sam Walton died. Walton died in 1992 and the stock was flat to down for about 5 years. Then flat as a pancake from 2000 to present. The great stock price growth story never recovered, even though the company has dominated retailing.

I just did some checking. Jack Welch was head of GE from 1981 to 2001. The company stock grew spectacularly during that time and has been down big since Welch retired.

Bill Gates was the head honcho at MSFT from 1981 to January 2000. MSFT was a spectacular growth phenom during that 19 year run. It hit its all time high at almost the exact time Gates stepped down. It's been down and then flat ever since.

An N of 3 doesn't prove anything. But I'd wonder if Apple can keep its mojo without Jobs. It certainly did not when Jobs was forced out in 1985. It only got going again when he came back.

Of course, those long term trends may have nothing to do with swing trading short term trends. But I'm sure it's easier to make money on a great growth story, like MSFT, GE, or WMT in the 80's and 90's.

[sd]

You may be right Blygh-
I certainly expected a second & third day sell-off much larger than what has occurred. It's likely AAPL will at least pullback to the 100 ema 377 or so, particularly if the larger market weakens this week.
AAPL may indeed prove to be the Christmas gift de jour,
I will consider a reentry , but I have to believe what the price action suggests, and that is the opportunity is to repurchase at a lower price-
We'll see what occurs over the next week or two-
Good Trading! SD

[sd]

Friday went long jjc, dig,fcg, uyg, holding psce.
The markets were up, and the europe 'news' may be priced in..
Stops in place -SD

[sd]

On weakness yesterday, I reactively raised stops on all my positions to the mkt price. Thought we'd see additional selling today-
4 of my 5 positions hit the stops @ 10:45 am- and all closed higher than that as the mkt turned and rallied- I didn't bother looking at charts and assessing where the stops should be placed- Just raised them all.
The one position that survived was the copper long JJC-

Simply too much going on these days- it looks as though the mkt is " climbing the proverbial wall of worry " and one should be positioned to the long side.
The home project-is taking all of my free time- I am removing the vinyl siding, adding a 1-1/4" insulation board, overlay with osb plywood, and then new vinyl siding. -
Adding sliding glass doors off the living room with an eventual
'sun room ' addition -the goal- Have the windows across the front in place, and 1/2 insulated with rigid.
Trying to beat the winter weather-
SD

[blygh]

I too have had lots of stops hit lately. Most profits are occurring in day trading with closing of positions between 3 and 4pm . I still do not see what could drive the markets higher. Aggregate demand is down as the savings rate increases. Millions of consumers are tapped out (although credit card sales are reported up) Government spending is going down by a trillion. Austerity inhibits the speed of money -America, UK and Europe are all opting for austerity. I guess my mantra these days is "The trend is your friend but keep your stops tight."

[sd]

I had essentially stepped aside for the past weeks, not having much time for the market or minimal following of what was occurring.
Took a few days of vacation prior to starting a new work project- The home remodel project is ongoing, somewhat expanded, and we decided while we were at it, we'd widen the 32" entry to a 36" door, and new storm. This all takes time.
I decided I'd go long yesterday am, as things in Europe appear to be trying to stabilize- or perhaps the market is simply
believing the sky is not falling as Europe's issues become known and then reassessed.?
I also took some monies on the sidelines in my IRA, and went into some conservative funds including bonds. The bond funds have been doing well, and at some point that may change.

I took 4 trades yesterday- approx $1,000 value each-
TYH, XLI,UYG, and I'm having a Perry moment with #4.....
I'll look to add to each position if it is able to rally higher,

AAPL is the single stock I have followed- Initially thinking it was going to be a good growth story/core stock- That thinking changed and I've traded it several times- and expecting a pullback to support is likely- with a $370 limit order for a partial position, and a $356 order to complete the position- stop $348.

As Blygh mentioned, AAPL should have a strong story going into Christmas, but it hasn't shown strength yet, and is coming under criticisms - But demand for it's products is strong reportedly- We'll see how it fares-and if the market gives me a reentry at a lower cost than I sold.
SD

[blygh]

Just read the iPhone has overtaken the Blackberry in sales to the business community - Intel at a new high is interesting too - If Intel goes up can the boxmakers be far behind?
Blygh