sd's -Adapting in 2011

[blygh]

Art Cashin on CNBC agrees with you, sd. He suggests a capitulation on Monday will lead to a market bottom and then a strong rally on Tuesday - a tough call - the question is do we look at stock fundamentals like earnings, PE,PEG and P/Bk - or are the macrofactors (country defaults, tariffs - the PIIGS have to limit imports from China - so do we, for that matter) more worthy of consideration. I am a macro man for the moment but one has to sniffout the good value stocks (like Nike0.

[sd]

Hi Blygh-I sold my short positions as they weakened off the open.and added tech TYH and Financials UYG- We'll see if this early an entry can get some profit off an oversold bounce-.
The way this market goes, it's important IMO to lock in some profits when you get them, tactically trade around the position. Good Luck- Glad I've got this Friday off- SD

[sd]

i've been trying to upload to photobucket for the past 2 days, and am unable to do so? The upload screen comes up and the
"my computer" screen does not respond. Anyone else having similar problems?
suggestions for other hosting sites?
Thanks, SD
OK- Photobucket is working - I'll try to get a chart uploaded

[sd]

Art Cashin on CNBC agrees with you, sd. He suggests a capitulation on Monday will lead to a market bottom and then a strong rally on Tuesday - a tough call - the question is do we look at stock fundamentals like earnings, PE,PEG and P/Bk - or are the macrofactors (country defaults, tariffs - the PIIGS have to limit imports from China - so do we, for that matter) more worthy of consideration. I am a macro man for the moment but one has to sniffout the good value stocks (like Nike0.

following up Blygh- I think the macro factors often overwhelms the fundamentals commonly used- at least in the short term- for weeks/months as market sentiment can "throw the Baby out with the bath water" as they say. Value should certainly have a place in an investors arsenal- particularly if they can withstand the prospects of that value declining until the market turns favorable, and a longer term view.
Todays lack of additional selling suggests a market that is basing, trying to get it's composure, no news item pushing it down- But the day is not over and the weekend is here-
Today may just be a short bounce, with the trend continuing lower.

I try to adjust that longer term approach through my IRA with my fund selection- can't trade individual stocks there, and very limited with selections- largely in bonds and near term target funds, and one value/dividend fund.
For my trading account, i'm trying to make trades based on the charts and what may occur over a few days or weeks, , not relying on what I think will happen-
These days I'm trying to focus mostly on ETF's - usually the leveraged variety, for short term duration trades. I'm hoping to catch a directional move that could last for weeks-
Don't know what direction that may be!
Regards,
SD

[sd]

Worst Weekly Decline in the past 3 years!
My recent week off and charts show that the market often gives false direction at the open and takes a while to settle in - the first hour can show a market reversal.
I was positioned short - just yesterday adding to the short positions- The premarket news and futures suggested a short position might not be the place to be, and as those positions opened with small gains (late entries yesterday), those gains evaporated and started to go into the red-
I chose to not allow these positions any room to the downside, and sold for a $3, $6, and $14 loss in EFU, TWM,SKF,and gain in EPV which I had prior. EPV gave those trades a walloping $47.00 net gain, or 1% approx.
and went long financials UYG, and Tech TYH. which started off strong and then traded sideways.
What I did right- Based on the available market indications, that showed my recent trades might be vulnerable, I exited the positions, cut short losses, and locked in profits on EPV.That turned out to be the best possible course of action.
I jumped in early in the uyg & tyh, and later in DZZ.
In TYH I stepped in with a 2/3 position initially, adding 1/3 a few minutes later as the trade gained momentum- I also took a 2/3 position in UYG , adding 1/3 a few minutes later.
it was after 10:09 when I added DZZ.

I thought we'd see a larger oversold bounce, but the moves pulled back into sideways ranges (albeit profitable), with gains 1/2 of what they had moved up to- Will hold over the weekend-
And I will evaluate stops and likely stagger them particularly in the full & overweight trades.
A lot hinges on what comes out of Europe over the weekend.
Chart of tyh intraday, and recent trades- Note that TYH has shown strength when the rest of the market was weak last week. I think our likely longer term trend is down, but the market is looking for hopes to rally on- I hope this gets some bounce Monday, so I can lock in some profits on today's entries.-
SD

[sd]

CHART EXAMPLES OF TYH

[sd]

mONDAY, mONDAY! vocals....Can't trust that day?..... MAMA'S & pAPPAS? wHAT WILL IT BRING? I suffer from a pronounced case of lyricosis-have for decades....
on this Sunday pm, I have no 'news' concerning what may happen at tomorrow's open- I just heard the ABC report that most American's lost a year's worth of IRA contributions in the last week.
Reportedly A year's worth of investing wiped out in a week? The average IRA with $109,000 lost 7,000 this past week. Don't know how they calculate this- I also thought the average IRA was about 1/2 of what they reported.?
The Fear factor has to be high for anyone with a view towards the future-
Reflecting on Friday's trades- Rash decisions or "timely" moves?
I made a decision on Friday to jump whole hog into a couple of trades on what was indicated to be an oversold pop in the market-And to sell my prior day's short positions.
The severity of the prior 2 days fall -combined with the premarket data, told me that the sell-off wasn't going to continue- at least not at the open.
Selling the short positions and cutting losses and netting some profits proved to be good for that day's price action. Was it good for Monday? I'm still optimistic it was the right thing to do.
Entering the long positions UYG- Financials -dog of the market, was my contrarian thinking that the most oversold sector should benefit the most
and TYH- tech seems to want to bounce when it can..and the prior week led the market and I was able to successfully get in and out profitably on several trades-
and DZZ- Gold still has some room lower before a 1st support @ 150.00 ..

As I looked back on some pastwinning trades- TYH one example- I missed getting in on the 1st day of a reversal- and had I taken this earlier entry- had I been paying attention- would have added greatly to the net profit of a winning trade-

This market has been tough to trade, because a trend is 2-4 days long-

The best thing about taking the early entry is that it puts me that much closer to a stop-loss that doesn't give me heart burn.
If I'm right, and the market bounces again Monday, I should see a nice gain before the oversold bounce loses momentum.
The worst thing about taking that early entry is that I am presuming (gambling) that I know what the market is wanting to do- It turned out that I was correct for Friday, but will it follow through into Monday?
I'm comfortable with the early entries, however I was 'sure' enough I was seeing a market reversal/bounce beginning, I not only took full positions, I went overweight .
My belief is that one should go overweight only once the position is successful- outside of stop range (stops raised to Break even).
So, while i can justify my sell my shorts and go long turn as being timely, I wasn't at a successful trade level to go overweight- particularly not the financials-
I think I was expecting I was getting in on the ground floor of a 500 point rally...................................Rally-yes, but not 500 pts.
(some financials closed up 5% higher)
So, I think I 'gambled' some on Friday-particularly by not selling and locking in at least the profit on the overweight position at the EOD- Hubris- the arrogance to believe one can perceive that which others do not-Or to be immune from... In this instance foretelling what the weekend news from Europe - would bring- It better be a positive or the UYG trade is scuttled..
On a final thought/justification- One mistake trader's make is not leveraging their winning trades- Perhaps I was early in adding the leverage here,- there is no sure bet, but I can hope for a 2 day move-perhaps more-Depends on the News presented to us tomorrow AM EH?
Good trading All-SD

[sd]

It's nice to be on target once in a while, to be correct in what the market could/should do.
I thought things were going South hard at lunch, and I considered closing all positions, (I saw 1/2 of my TYH position had hit my higher stop).
I decided to let my stops ride, and went back to work-
Pleased to see that the market did indeed rally today-after I got home.
I was also surprised by the large move in financials with UYG as overweight. Will there be one more day higher tomorrow?
Tech really lagged today- with AAPL getting hit on some report of a downside supplier getting reduced orders-
Perhaps that kept the entire tech sector down, and my TYH position was halved as the trade weakened and got a spike down-to my first stop. I believed Tech should lead the rally and it's lackluster move concerns me......
During Lunch, I checked some charts and saw that Europe was up and that reinforced my willingness to not go into disaster mode- and raise stops or sell.
Glad i waited it out, it turned out better than I anticipated.

I added to the Gold short today , as well as a small silver short ZSL (which stopped out for a small lloss)
I think that trade is largely overdone, but GLD hasn't made it down to $150 yet- but close- within a few points. I'll adjust my DZZ stops to Break even, and see what happens.

I'll adjust stops higher tonight, and will look at the market futures in the am to see if we get a follow through bounce tomorrow-
I hope to capitolize on a market gap high and then possible pullback-
By a long shot, I don't believe we're on safe ground for an extended move higher, so locking in some profits here -trailing stops on a portion-
SD

[sd]

Had very nice moves in the financials (UYG) and in tech TYH-
carryover trades from Friday- That's 3 days and that's a long term trend in this market LOL!
I raised stops this lunch time to just below the price range, and this pm prices rolled over market wide.
Except for AApl , I am in cash and won't have any available until Thursday-
I had gambled on early entries on Friday, DZZ,TYH,UYG,and struggled some on Monday, but today's market moves made the
icing on the cake.

Too late this pm, but this was tactical trading at it's best- Nice to get it right for a few days- SD

[sd]

Took a position in TYH this am after thinking the market would push higher- The trade weakened and hit my stop.
I went long ZSL (leveraged slv short) and it closed up higher ,erasing the loss from TYH.
If the market is weakening, I will look to SKF, and depending on Europe- EPV on a watch. Big vote coming up in Europe- will move the markets. SD

[sd]

Not fully catching up tonight- I had Bot AAPL the prior week or two @ $396, with a $390 stop. Just 3 shares- and it ran up above $420 - and then I decided to lower the stop to $380 to get outside a "normal" volatility spike as I'd like to "own" a few shares of the top tech company in the world.
After stopping out , I looked at the chart and felt that $350-$360 would be a likely support range on a pullback, and placed a limit order @ $360.00.
That filled today, as Aapl hit $355 and rebounded, along with the rest of the mkt.Stop is $148.00
My EPV trade (short Europe) has lost momentum and is now close to becoming a loss.
I haven't had much free time since last week, and haven't pushed other trades.
SD

[sd]

News tonight is the passing of Steve Jobs- AAPL's remarkable Ceo- who recently stepped down.

Odd that AAPL is my one position this day.

I had taken a position in AAPL as a 'core' position- and the remainder of my trades will still be via ETF's.

I expect additional downside weakness due to his passing,.
As the market often over reacts- I will set a limit to add to my $360 position @ $337.00.
SD

[blygh]

I agree that Steve Jobs was a remarkable CEO. He knew less about what people wanted than he knew what people would want were it available. This is vision- something sadly lacking with today's CEO of stodgy old companies. Without a man (or woman ) of vision at the top, I expect AAPL will take a hit - How many people bought IPhones and IPADS because they believed that Steve Jobs took too much pride in his work to make a bad product. I noticed that RIMM was up 2.4% in after market trading after a good day today. Could be a good bet.

[sd]

AAPL's shares are halted for trading this 8:27 pm.
This is odd in that my account is only 'active' during market hours.
I've got pending orders to buy at $337, $305.00, in case there is a big sell-off.
I don't want to seem mercenary here- but I just recently chose AAPL as the one company I would bank on as an investment for the near future.. I have to believe that Jobs has indeed left a superb design and management team behind.

Conversely enough, The last time I traded AAPL - if my memory isn't too fuzzy- was a buy near $88 aND A sell at $86 as news came out that there was some 'concerns' about Job's options ...... and i bailed.

[sd]

Blygh- you may be correct- Today AAPL lagged while the larger markets rallied for a 3rd day. including the tech sector.
There is definitely an overhang with the passing of Jobs.
The market has put in 3 up days in light of positive news from the Euro zone.
I haven't made any positions this week other than AAPL- Busy.
4 days in a row is about all the mkt has been able to put together.
Tomorrow's mkt should be higher, and if AAPL continues to be weak in comparisom with the mkt moves, I think this is a tell on how well price will hold up should/when, the mkt weakens.
It appears we are strapped with concerns about refinancing the Euro zone. Financials moved again today- Just no time this week to jump in with little time to try to gain market insight.-
No other trades this week- Missed the big jump in UYG-
For those 'short' this rally is indeed a hard push-
SD