sd's -Adapting in 2011

[sd]

Hi Blygh-
INTC is doing nicely, IBM is doing well, HPQ & BBY are at least on an upslope.
AAPL is a real trade for me, but is also more a TA exercise
than seeking a tech stock that has growth- There are better momentum trades in the tech sector than AAPL- It's the only individual stock I'm toying with-.
Aa[l at $370 is only saving a few % on buying AAPL at $380- And the wished for $356 doesn't appear to be soon- but we've still got a flaky market- I don't get much take other than an hour of DVR in the pm....and watching Kudlow this pm- The "super coommtte " is at a stalemate-

To move this economy forward, the psychology of the market has to be that - meteors not withstanding, there is a plan in place for Europe, the US, the world, to eventually grind forward.
That there won't be a domino effect, we won't fall off the face of the cliff, that systemic risk is limited to a mild case of the flu, treatable with available resources.

My AAPL trade is as much a bet on the market psychology will momentarily undermine the price to where i get a TA fill at the lower levels. Whether those levels are warranted or justified is not the question- is the market psycholgy driving weakness warranted? At some point the market ignores the present fears and indeed looks forward. And hopefully that future vision is more promising.
Whenever we're trading, we need to look at the forces that move the larger market- that affects the very best of stocks in this environment
Good Luck, SD

[sd]

While recently putting on a few trades, and saw them head higher, I decided I wouldn't attach a stop on them, expecting some market volatility,- This is something I NEVER do-Go without a stop attached. I always place a stop with each trade, because that also defines the usual Risk-
Without a stop level , how do you calculate Risk?
I also didn't follow the trades daily, sold the financials yesterday, for a $62.00 loss and put stops on the other positions tonight at today's lows. Will likely lose on those other trades tomorrow, if the weakness continues.
I will attribute this slackness to some form of self sabotage on my part- Perhaps i just needed a splash of cold water reality-

Pulled out Tharp's "super trader" and he talks a great deal about trader psychology . This book is a great read, and for $26.95, a great investment IMO- He also goes into detail on position sizing principles, having different approaches for different markets, trading as a business, -

I would say to anyone that is reading this thread, that Tharp's book is well worth your time and the small expense.

And I'm off the couch with no further self-sabotage for this year.!
And , I still have AAPL at buys at $370, $356.-
SD

[sd]

I was filled today on the AAPL $370-SD

[sd]

I added to my AAPL position- Now a full position, I think the averasge cost is $374- Stop has been raised to $370.00
Also went long FAS this week. If there is any time for a relief rally for the financials, it is now with a temporary hiatus from fears from Europe for a week or so.
Just a toe in the waters here.
SD

[sd]

both AAPL and the FAS position stopped out yesterday on an initial price pullbackand suggested market weakness.
This turned out to be a good exit as price lost sharply today.

I'm looking tonight at both a short term trade in the vixy, and faz.

[blygh]

For short term trading on rainy days when I can be glued to the computer screen, I have taken to jumping in and out of RUSL & RUSS - leveraged long and short funds that trade on RSX - the Russian market ETF. Very volatile especially with European uncertainty. AAPL is long term hold for me - I think the Ipad 4 will be THE big Christmas gift this year - it is just too much money per share to trade profitably
Blygh

[sd]

Interesting Choice of leveraged funds! What prompted that selection if you don't mind my asking? Will check it out, but I think you also hit it on the mark with the idea that leveraged funds might best be done by someone that can monitor the screen intraday.

Yes, there are more volatile tech stocks than AAPL to trade., I selected it as likely one of the "best" stocks in it's field, and one that I would likely not be subject to a large stock specific risk . Gives me an opportunity to apply this faster approach to a stock vs an index- Gains and losses are indeed proportionately smaller. Good practice , if you will, and so far profitable. Waiting to see AAPL get back in the next few weeks- There should be a good assessment of AAPL's sales in a few weeks.


With the market news about Europe positive this am, I went long AAPL and FAS - Here at the EOD, I'm flat on AAPL, up 2.5% on FAS, and will hold it (and my breath) over the weekend.
Good Luck,
SD

[sd]

FAS stopped out for a loss today, countered by gains in EUO today's entry and DZZ . Barely in positive territory for the week though- SD

[sd]

Nice 3 day move in DZZ and I've raised the stop tonight to $5.28 expecting an oversold bounce will erase the profits.
Momentum trade- Entry $4.68. EUO trade gained, and AAPL stopped out. SD

[blygh]

I have been using RUSS and RUSl because RUSS correlates highly with EPV (shorts Europe) but with a much higher beta. RUSL moves opposite RUSS - with Europe and the Euro being so volatile - you can enhance profits (and losses) by playing RUSS and RUSL as a way to play Europe

[sd]

Hey Blygh-
Wide volatility swings there - Day trading with your finger on the trigger..... Substantial gaps on the overnight opens.15-20% moves ....

Choppy/volatile price action, but if you have a sense of the macro news that moves it - Opportunity to make-or lose- .......

I closed the DZZ trade at $4.68 entry, $5.28 exit stop hit.
Still holding EUO as a net profitable trade with the stop raised- Not a big mover-
Will consider a DZZ reentry if it starts to move higher again- It hit prior resistance and rolled over- Coincidental? Perhaps.
I'm only 20% active at present in my trading account, no opportunity to try to make a substantial near term bet. Out of AAPL until it pulls back further once again-
I'm a confirmed believer these days of the short term (60 min) chart, Perhaps this will also be the strategy de jour going forward in 2012.
Here we are 12 days or so till the new year, and the market is struggling to hold ground. We may have seen the best for the year - Good Luck, SD

[sd]

I'm going long RUSL for Wed 12-21 based on the market news.
I'll be buying 33 shares of Blygh's volatile Russia ETF.
Actual trading exercise based on the market "rally"
The trade is a buy-stop entry long with limit $31.75- $32.50 with a hard stop @ $30.50.
This is a play on Euroland coming to the altar and reassuring the rest of the markets.
The likelihood is price will gap higher at the open, ergo the limit .
The buy-stop ensures the price moves in my direction
The limit protects from a gap high open much higher,
the stop covers the butt in case the market perceives the "news" differently.
I tend to really like the 2nd attempt of an up-move, price reversal, and that is where this chart is today.
This gives a good entry buy-stop, and the low of today's price is an indication the momentrum is not with the trade and it is prudent to take the initial loss.
My 2 bits- Sd
60 min. chart BTW.

[sd]

RUSL actually opened lower and never touched my Buy-stop.
EUO trade stopped out the other day for a net $5 gain.
I believe there is a narrow rally occurring, but I'm out of touch with current events these days.
In cash as a default-

[sd]

Didn't continue with the RUSL trade today, but a vacation day
can be a dangerous thing!
Went long this am with 2 buy-stops- DZZ, and then tna. Going into the close i added UPW & XLF-
It sounds like Europe is getting it's act together- the US jobs report and other data today was not great, but can be viewed as potentially a positive-

The TNA trade & XLF are in the money- DZZ & UPW are down from my entry, but all 4 are net higher than yesterday.
SD

[sd]

i had a recent very good trade in DZZ last week.
Using a 60 minute chart to get a faster view of price action, rather than a daily chart, a couple of ma's, and P Sar.
Will give earlier entry and exit signals, and is well suited for trying to trade in a choppy market, rather than a daily chart.
JMHO-


Macro theme : Gold has been weakening.

Purpose of this chart :illustration of P Sar signals.


This chart illustrates the potential of applying the Parabolic Sar to a 60 minute price chart- One should backtest this volatility indicator on any potential equity and understand that the indicator works best in a trending environment and not in a trading range. In a sideways range, It will give buy/sell signals that have to be viewed with caution, and assessed relative to what price action suggests.
I did not make each of these trades ........

As a potential entry level:
P Sar trails and closes in on a downtrending price. While there can be quick snap-back reversals, with P Sar away from price, these are the exception, rather than the rule.

As I apply it, P Sar provides a potential trailing buy-stop entry as it follows price lower. Since I'm an EOD trader, I cannot follow each hourly P. Sar change. I don't always use the exact final P sar level- for the buy-stop- perhaps a bit higher. and ultimately want to look at price action, and
then consider the larger market trend de jour.

As a stop-loss - P Sar also closes in on climbing price action, progressively getting closer to price on a daily basis. At some point, one may choose between the Sar level , and the actual price action as to suitability- Sar starts off too wide for me on many initial entries to apply as a stop- I'll use the prior price action initially.
If the trade works in my direction, and price is well above the fast ema and climbing, P Sar closes in , and I'll often use it - particularly if price appears to weaken.
Will come back to this in the future- Pressed for time today-
Happy Holidays !SD