SD- 2021- ACTIVE MANAGEMENT FOR GREATER SUCCESS IN 2021

[sd]

1-31-21 Commentary Youtube -Jason Leavitt on the Brokerage house manipulation of halting traders in the GME position to "save" the Hedge fund.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=ctocp1LzQUo&feature=youtu.be
I will also be watching the weekly youtube videos of several market technicians.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=h1Z-XRezVIc
Also David Keller- www.youtube.com/watch?v=EraSBpQY6Ps Market looks poised for a deeper correction

on 1-28 David Keller -Breadth from Euphoria and declining-https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=avufASTqNzg


What is useful from a Technical view, is viewing the interpretations of market technicians -as well as viewing how they view support and resistence- Keller does a good overview of the changing breadth and sentiment.


Worth while to post this astute warning about the outperformance of ARK funds-and the huge amount of asset inflows- Joseph Carlson -interesting comparison of past big market outperformers.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=g1KP06rVEM8

Wisdom from Jack Bogle- Market too high? Overvalued? Passive investor ? When to Invest according to Bogle? Right Now would be his answer, as he did in a 1997 speech when the market was grossly overpriced at that time - www.youtube.com/watch?v=bafSHgye-30

That is good advice for the passive investor- with decades ahead.
Another interview with Jack Bogle - low cost investing foundhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sWVVazhSFuEer that built Vanguard :https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MLgn_kVKjCE
Warren Buffet's advice to the Investor: Passive investing www.youtube.com/watch?v=sWVVazhSFuE
Warren Buffet on the wealth/technological gap- leaving people behind : www.youtube.com/watch?v=zfP9OQhcwdY

Presently, Yes the markets have been extended- almost euphoric, and at high expectations - The fact that MSFT, AAPL, FB & semis all posted earnings beats, yet they were sold off this week
tells us that we have a potential to decline even further- Perhaps the GME short covering fiasco was the ultimate disruption to unsettle the market's complacency.
Does a reset happen this Spring? Is the recovery already baked in? If we see a -5 -10% correction, that would be a "normal" pullback. Is it possible to see a larger decline, particularly as the vaccine rollout is proceeding slowly, the concern about new strains delaying the economic recovery.
My posture is presently defensive, I had added to SLV this past week, and am reading that it is also on a short squeeze list...
I also took a defensive buy in HDGE- bear fund as a temporary defense- wish I had gotten into the volatility fund last week at very low prices- considerable upside.
Read the EB seasonality projection- The Typical top for the S&P 500 is Jan 18- seems to be right on track in 2020-
Seasonality is the "Average" performance- from Earningsbeats.com

A Look Ahead At February 2021
S&P 500 Performance
Here's a breakdown of the annualized performance of the S&P 500 (since 1950) during the month of February:

February 1-3: +34.85%

February 4-10: -18.64%

February 11-15: +30.37%

February 16-29: -7.30%

The stock market trades during February in similar fashion to most other calendar months. We typically start the month strong, see profit taking, enjoy a second surge toward the middle of the month, and then further weakness into options expiration and the end of the month.

[sd]

The decision to take a HDGE position Friday is in direct response to how extended the market presently is , and was a small Risk trade-
It performed well in the Feb/Mar sell-off, but I'm not anticipating a severe sell-off- just a slight pullback further- This is indeed a bottom fishing pick based solely on my indulging my present negative bias after the performance of stocks this week.


One of the things I was not aware of, is the impact of a higher Short interest on my positions- Apparently I've been the beneficiary of holding SPCE during 2 price surges-and both times I simply thought I was investing in an innovative company that was breaking out- I'm not certain how I will apply that information on future trades, but as can be seen on the SPCE chart, it had a big momentum move that I was slow in selling into that day-

Silver -Can it breakout higher?



I'm starting Feb with a very large % now in CASH. I actually thought that a number of my positions- The dividend funds -for example- would have held up- yet they All succumbed
Essentially, time to reset and reconsider -January was all about participating in the momentum trades, and yet I was aware that things were quite extended- and stayed in a few days too long- but still with Net gains .
Ultimately, This market has had a recovery unlike any other period of time- Will it have a pullback commensurate with it's excessive run higher?

I'm expecting a more substantial decline to warrant getting stopped out, and to present lower entry prices- It feels as though All of the recovery has already been priced in

[sd]

2-1-21
Futures up- Short squeeze reportedly on Silver- see premarket prices @ $28 for SLV-
The article on seasonality suggesting the 1st 3 days in Feb are positive, then turning negative indeed brings on some caution- This looks like the shakeout from Thursday and Friday will leave me chasing if I want to get back in- I think the real tell will be how those companies that posted solid earnings beats but sold off last week- MSFT,AAPL,FB etc will see new buying. Waiting for 10 am to see how things settle out......

sILVER GAPPED UP ON THE OPEN -


aS i'M VIEWING A NUMBER OF CHARTS OF MY RECENT POSITIONS-They opened higher, but many have declined slightly lower this 1st 30 minutes.
....
later-11 am = the majority of my prior positions had opened higher, but have then declined during the morning-
TSLA received an upgrade with a $1200 price target from one analyst' firm, but TSLA is down slightly after the open- I don't own TSLA- but see this as a benchmark for the overall market's sentiment.
Speaking of Sentiment- following an Election year, the month of Feb is often not a good performer- and averages out to be #47 out of the 48 months of the election cycle of 4 years- Note that the prior 2 cycles were net positive though- so one cannot say that this Feb is going to be a negative-however, it is often volatile.
From Sentiment Trader:

USING this week's pullbacks lows as the Point of Failure for trades, adding some trades on those showing a bounce higher- Went all in in the IB and Van Roth-and will be adding back in the Van IRA- see if we can get a bounce back this week.

Trade entries- 5 TSLA- This 2% bounce higher off a few days of selling puts in a close swing Low + the upgraded price target 20 Cree $109.48,on continued positive price momentum - also bouncing off a 2 week decline- Earnings?
200 F, 50 GM ON THE EV MARKET OFF RECENT LOW.
As the Day has moved on, I have gone back in long- less than 20% in cash - with numerous Buys bouncing off the prior day's swinglow - Essentially Buying the DIP- on those that sold off last week.
Some of this positive price action is reportedly due to the Hedge funds sell-off of market stocks to cover it's short losses. And- perhaps it's because Day 1,2,3 of Feb are supposed to be seasonally strong?
The so-called Silver short that occurred today say SLV open up high $27.76 and drop off as the day goes on- Several analysts explain that SLV is
not easily moved as a short due to the Futures market able to provide more supply . I'll sell 1/2 my position into this breakout move.


I entered back into most of my prior ETF positions today-including ALL of the ARK funds, and added a few new stocks - TSLA, FB, AAPL, F, THCB, MSFT, CREE,NVTA,TSM, and CRSP AND SPCE again. THCB is a Spac that had a lot of momentum today- IPOE is another Spac I hold that also saw some positive moves.
The stock positions are a mix- SPCE is a momentum play- CRSP,NVTA in the genomics play are in addition to owning ARKG.
TSLA- on the recent sell-off along with a 50% price target upgrade - using this as an opportunity for an Entry- although I had been in denial that this could continue- It still may fail to perform, but an entry at this level is a relatively low % Risk.
Actually, Most of these trades taken today have that in common- Coming off a Friday low, after several days of selling, the Friday low can represent the swing low in a primary uptrend- and so Buying this market Dip. That is something I should target more in my trading, as it enables a stop-loss to Risk a small amount.
FACEBOOK HAS BEEN UNDER SELLING PRESSURE- tHIS 60 MIN CHART Prompted me to take an entry on a Bullish bar as the markets rallied today. It Beat Earnings last week yet was caught up in the sell-off/short covering-


SPCE: I took a smaller 50 share entry today . I had sold off the position last week in 2 trades- Perhaps it is short covering that is prompting this, but perhaps it's more the promise of the stock's being a future big market leader-in Aerospace?
In conjunction with going back in this specific trade, I also reentered MOON today(holds SPCE) and also UFO in this broad sector- When ARK funds come out with their proposed space ETF this year, I would also be a Buyer into that- As I understand it, the others in the space field are MAXR, IRdM, Aerojet-AJRD and i will look into how these are performing.
MAXR still pulling back from last week. IRDM still is trending- did not pullback last week! AJRD Big gap in DEC and in a very tight base for 6 weeks- ODD - both unaffected by the market's weakness last week.


CREE- a Name I new as a lighting play years ago- Entered on the strong momentum move higher


TSLA-I hadn't stayed with TSLA and was certain it was way overvalued- But Cathy Wood was right on her price $4,000 call pre split-
On this pullback I viewed this as an opportunity to see if TSLA would recapture it's recent upside momentum- The trade itself Risks 5% if I use a stop just below the prior day's swing low. The Trade represents under 2% of the account- and the Account Risk with the tight stop is below 0.10%.


I'll be selling HDGE at the Open-

[ira85]

Tom Bowley had an article at StockCharts 1-31-21 about the significance of elevated VIX as a market risk indicator. VIX hit a low last week of 22.20 and a high of 37.51. A significant increase. He said VIX rarely gets to 50 or above. That would be a sign of substantial risk. The more common and more moderate elevations of VIX tend to indicate brief corrections. On 1-31-21 Bowley expected VIX would top somewhere in the 30-45 range. That suggested to him that we were very near a selling climax.

So how did he do? VIX closed last Friday at 33.09. Today, Monday, VIX opened at 31.45, hit a high of 33.96,and closed at 30.24. VIX stayed well within the moderate range predicted, in fact near the lower end of the moderate range. How'd the market do? SPY closed last Friday at 370 and opened this morning at 374. SPY reached a low of 370 and a high of 377. It closed at 376. No panic . No sign of fear. Bowley suggested the action last week and today of a moderate rise in VIX and no upward follow through might be considered a sign of minimal risk.

So from here it seems a gradually falling VIX over the next few days may be a good sign to get more invested. But if there is a spike up to 50 or more expect heavy selling and act accordingly. ira

[sd]

I hope Bowley is right-He is certainly knowledgeable about the market's history, seasonality, and volatility-
I reentered those Earnings Beats portfolio positions- I think at lower prices from where I stopped out-
I'm covering my bear position with a sell at the open today-HDGE-
Yesterday I put 80% back in to stocks & ETFs coming off what I hope is a swing low on the charts in a continuation of an uptrend-
I was aware that if yesterday's move was a 1 day wonder snap back relief rally and things went lower, that would essentially wipe out my net gains for 2021.
My stops will have to be set under the yesterday swing low - perhaps a .5% below for volatility, and at least the futures today look like yesterday's Reversal of the recent downtrend will start in the right direction- I think the majority of companies reporting have exceeded estimates, so that's a fundamental reason for positive market action- I am well aware that last week's "correction" is not a one and done. A correction is a process, and yesterday and today's upside reaction may not lead us back into new highs- OR, It may...so I will be keeping up with trailing stops- I potentially could have captured more gains for 2021 last week had I managed my losing trades better-
on Evaluating Risk- Holding multiple positions can be difficult to keep track of. I have an active Google sheets spreadsheet that I need to employ and update with the new positions, and I also need to add a few columns- The Stop-loss column, and then the Risk columns- Since very few stops are executed at the Stop price- slippage and market volatility likely can add -1 to -2% below the average stop-loss in terms of actual execution. Perhaps a wider factor of -5% should be considered below the stop-to account for a more volatile market sell-off.
The seasonality factor for February shows negatively after the 1st few days. Ideally this Feb will not follow that same average result. I think today's market action-
will give us an indication-.

[sd]

2-2-21
mARKETS CONTINUE HIGHER- Modest Rally, and I added a few more spec names today- several semis and some spec biotech/genomic names-
Primarily using the sell-off lows and yesterdays bounce higher as a springboard for today's trades-
One trade I am in the Red on today is SPCE- reportedly a highly shorted trade- The Longs in GME and the other short trades are getting whacked today, and that may be the reason for the selling today- Price had a gap high open of almost $59 and dropped sharply.
I hadn't set stops in positions yet, seeing the Red and the bounce higher, I set a stop @ $50.00 as price climbed up to $51. I will potentially raise the stop higher to reduce my $2.17 present loss. Previously, when I was unaware that SPCE was a highly shorted stock, I allowed trades to be held with a bit wider of a stop- It's critical that this intraday reversal holds-as i am risking 4% on a stop @ $50.00- which is a modest Risk, but I'm not wanting to allow it to drop back down again. If today's sell-off was simply profit taking and getting out of a short squeeze will make me more cautious. Using GME as an example, longs are getting crushed.

Silver was also a reported short play- I sold 1/2 for a decent gain into yesterdays upmove-I sold the remainder at the open at Market this am as SLV had dropped overnight. I think this sell was close to a wash.
Added to the CNBS position on today's breakout- It held up in a flat base all of last week.

The Reddit website- www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/
They Drank the Kool Aid and a lot of them are down huge-
Listening to Mark Cuban defending he suggested they hold "if they can afford to."
All of the hype and "Hold em" - theme to beat the Hedge Funds.
A Moment in time some will learn from. Have to recognize when the Tide has turned against you.
Gratifying when trades do go in the direction you are positioned for.
Catching TSLA off the bottom is somewhat the theme for the majority of positions I put back on

MOST OF THE CHARTS LOOK VERY SIMILAR-
FB A NEW POSITION FOR THE IB ACCOUNT


CRSP IS A POTENTIAL GENOMICS CHANGER -Owned in ARKG, and possibly ARKK
I've had several trade wins in CRSP

ADDED A COUPLE OF SEMIS XLNX, LRCX,AMD



TMO- SCIENTIFIC INSTRUMENTS


SKYY HELD UP WELL DURING LAST WEEK'S CORRECTION
BUYING THIS BREAKOUT MOVE HIGHER.


THE MARIJUANA FUNDS HELD UP WELL
My CNBS position did not stop out last week, and my original 101 share cost basis was $19.43. When something holds up as the rest of the market is declining sharply, it suggests it has staying power. The Theme for Pot stocks and funds is the new administration will likely allow a more flexible expansion- and a number of states are making concessions for Pot to allow a new taxable income for the State. The Governor of Conn. was saying he wasn't going to be on an Island alone as the other States around him legalized
Pot- This particular fund is put together by Tim Seymour (CNBC Fast Money) and I think he has tried to put some thought into it's construction of the companies it holds and their future prospects. I added to the CNBS position on todays breakout, and I also similarly bought the breakout of YOLO- On a Perf chart, CNBS has slightly outperformed YOLO over 20 days-

[sd]

2-2-21

Day ended up nicely with mostly positive gains and a few positions lower. One of the trades I had entered yesterday- SPCE started off strongly today, but weakened, had an early decline, a bit of a rally- where i set a stop @ $50 as it moved above that point- and then I went on to other trades- Typically, I would have set a wider stop-loss because of the daily volatility- and not above the Fast ema-
Fact is, with the market futures all higher, I felt no rush to put stops in so many new positions , and wanted to see the performance after 10 am- Using the Summary feature in the chartlist is an easy way to see if price has improved or declined .
But getting more defensive is a dual edged sword- as last week taught me as the market indexes lost all of the gains for 2021.

This video from Jason Leavitt is a really instructive way to view the markets, and how to time entries- and exits- by using a faster time frame to view the price moves on a really closer perspective- I often drop down into a smaller time frame to get that closer view- and did that recently with a trade in CLNE. But since i also tend to want to allow 30 minutes to go past without reacting- Leavitt's approach using a 5 minute chart with a few emas looks like a very definitive way to get an entry in a stock later during the day as well.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=XStvX0EEZ64&feature=youtu.be
He starts off with a daily chart, determines where the stock is on that time frame, and then views it's present position on a fast 5 min chart- Note that Fast of a time frame will only allow 2-3 days of price action to be clearly seen- It could be as useful to include a few more days information by stepping up to a higher time frame- 10 or 15 minutes-

The Earlier chart i posted after a declining price had moved back higher in the SPCE position

THE 5 MINUTE CHART-
NOTE THAT THE 5 MINUTE BARS ILLUSTRATE THE OPEN TO THE 10 AM PERIOD BEFORE PRICE DECIDES ON A TREND DIRECTION.
Also note how Price opened high today 2-2, and then declined quickly, tried to Rally up to 10 am, and then fell.
This quicker time frame view can give some insight- Notice how price is downtrending into the close.

[ira85]

Quick recap. I got spooked Friday. VIX was up for the week. Some big moving averages were crossing down. So I sold everything. 100% cash. Sounds dramatic. I only had 4 positions. Three of those were quite small. Over the weekend I read an article about VIX action for the week past. In the first 2 hours this morning the markets were calm. No follow through for the fear last week. So I took that as a buy sign. I bought 200 shares of RSP and 70 shares of SPY. Two broad market funds. I will hope I can stay long for awhile, but at long last I'm much more in the market now than I've had in years. That may be a contrary sign so beware. When I get comfortable we may be at elevated crash risk. - ira

[sd]

Quick recap. I got spooked Friday. VIX was up for the week. Some big moving averages were crossing down. So I sold everything. 100% cash. Sounds dramatic. I only had 4 positions. Three of those were quite small. Over the weekend I read an article about VIX action for the week past. In the first 2 hours this morning the markets were calm. No follow through for the fear last week. So I took that as a buy sign. I bought 200 shares of RSP and 70 shares of SPY. Two broad market funds. I will hope I can stay long for awhile, but at long last I'm much more in the market now than I've had in years. That may be a contrary sign so beware. When I get comfortable we may be at elevated crash risk. - ira


I also got spooked out last week-but Mon & Tues got 90% back in. It was smart to exit on last weeks' weakness, and I also think it's timely to get back in. While we never know where the market will go, getting in Close to a bottom gives you a good reference as to where the Point of Failure lies- Ideally the swing low of last week will not be tested anytime soon- A stop-loss just below that level provides a good degree of Risk control imo. I'm sure you are aware, the RSP is equal weighted- vs SPY cap weighted- being the difference- Essentially the same holdings. I think the RSP will outperform SPY.
You may want to differentiate with some Tech exposure- RYT or QQQE is the equal weight to QQQ.
The 5 Faang STOCKS HOLD THE LARGEST %-Cap weighting in the QQQ. In a recovery period , Equal weighting may benefit more-
Tech sector has outperformed SPY by a significant % in recent years- My belief is that technology will be the major force of change as we go into the future- so an exposure to tech should be a portion of a diversified portfolio.
Holding the broad sector indexes also reduces the larger Risk of holding a very narrow industry group ETF- like ARKQ- Greater Risk, potentially greater reward- but as you get your toes in the water, sector investing is a good way to proceed.


Futures looking up here midweek!



AN AFTER HOURS ADD -

Portfolio diversification is highly regarded in the financial planning world.
Holding 2 versions of the same index is not giving you diversification.
I'm not qualified but will suggest-
Broad index exposures to the S&P 500 should be a key part of a portfolio.
Including an exposure to the Technology sector should be a portion. TECH will likely outperform
Emerging market exposure should not be excluded- The Emerging markets are at a lower valuation and a potential for higher outperformance.

If there is a Global recovery -as we think is evolving- having an exposure to that huge market is important-

While large cap S&P has outperformed, I think the EW S&P is well positioned- also the EW Tech sector-

Consider a portfolio that has exposure to all 6 areas-

Let's ask - will the markets be higher at the end of this year as we finally recover from this virus?
I absolutely believe the recovery will yield a world wide economic boom. That is not already priced in-

So, I would consider part of one's position should include -AIA, EEM, ERSX,vxus (foreign exposure)
QQQ, QQQE, or RYT,VOOG, IWM .
Note that Small caps can outperform coming out of a recession type period, but like "value" will then underperform as markets stabilize.

Your present exposure is quite concentrated in only the S&P and I would suggest to get added diversification. If this is the dollar amount you are comfortable with, consider a 1/3 exposure to the EEM markets, 1/3 to the S&P, 1/3 to the QQQ's- Tech sector, but break it down-
I would perhaps consider 1/2 into the large caps, 1/2 into the equal weight and small caps.

[sd]

2-3-2021
Markets up slightly- The GME saga is ongoing
BEAM was breaking out higher this am- I started to view it on the fast 5 minute chart, and at 10 am it gave a blue pullback bar-
I set a lower limit $103.00 and price came back and just filled- That's down $6 from the high this am. The assumption is that the breakout momentum will continue - Entering after 10 am to check the trend direction- allows the potential premarket orders to settle out-
I'm pleased with this experiment to get a better lower entry with the 5 min chart . No idea where this will end up- The biotech plays can be very volatile- THIS IS A BIT OF A REAL TIME LEARNING CURVE WITH REAL $$$.
BEAM- GENE EDITING finance.yahoo.com/news/7-crispr-stocks-future-medicine-231244726.html

How Low do we go?


Obviously my 103 entry did not find support- price is basing sideways at Yesterday's closing range- This would be the ideal real time entry point.
I don't know if this is Beam specific or something larger, as ARKG also opened higher and is selling off lower ....

lATE AM- AS i review the price action periodically , I realized my setting an arbitrary $103 price was simply based on getting into the trade if it pulled back off that $109 price- which it certainly has done- it blew past the $103 all the way back down to yesterday's pm base range. I also realized I didn't pay any attention to the wide declining psar values. At 10:50 it put in the lower Red bar $98.00, and has since gone sideways essentially where it closed the prior day's 30 minutes. Price tried to go higher- exceeding the declining psar. This generated a new psar Buy, and 3 bars later another green bar to where I added 10 shares $99.83 to my 15 share $103 position. AVG Cost will now be $101.73. THIS IS AN INTERESTING EXERCISE -
Cold weather here , so I don't mind sitting at a computer - likely the trend for Feb, but come warmer weather and sunshine, I will not be house bound.
Getting the garden in order and some Spring fishing are on the docket.


I have put in an order to BUY 6 shares $99.05. If filled, I will be holding 31 shares- I don't have any conviction or knowledge of this trade, so this experiment of SD -day trader is exceeding what I would normally do in a single stock position. If the trade fails to gain any higher traction today, I will have to set a stop under the prior base's range lows . I'm optimistic that whatever prompted today's big +9% early move will also come back to motivate a higher price in the day's going forward. I added several biotechs this week- Back into CRSP, NNDM, and several others.



A LOW VOLUME BREAKOUT ATTEMPT



VOLUME SHOWS UP



A SIDEWAYS BASE @ $101 LEVEL UNDERWAY
i.imgur.com/YK5BQPZ.png
PRICE WEAKENING INTO THE CLOSE- BUY ORDER WAITING

$99.05 ORDER FILLED



A HO-HUM END TO THE DAY- RIGHT BACK WHERE IT ENDED YESTERDAY



mARKETS SOFTENING LATE AM-
Pot funds higher on a merger of 2 pot companies- Pot funds had held up well during last week's market sell-off. Yesterday I added to the CNBS position and also added some YOLO. LOLO did the same in her accounts- previously holding both - Unexpected pop today!

I took a very small spec position on a penny stock yesterday that came across the screen just for the heck of it.


THIS HAS GONE HIGHER, THEN SIDEWAYS EVEOLVING INTO A WEDGE-
AT SOME POINT IT BREAKS DOWN, OR BREAKS OUT


ACCOUNT ended up 1.5% higher on the day, but gave back .5% in the final 30 minutes.
Added FCG - Nat Gas at the Close. I had sold the remaining CLNE last week- and it gained +20% this week- patience.
Following the 5 min price action of Beam periodically during the day was interesting- and perhaps I will rely more on the faster time frame chart to gauge a better entry. That noted, I will primarily rely on the Daily & 4 hr Charts.
QCOM selling off on missed earnings- I cut 1/2 my TSM position today.- I just bought into the chip stocks this week.

[sd]

2-03-2021
This week I went back long with the majority of my IRA account- and it appears to have been the correct timing ....
The past 2 days have delivered net gains, and the early reentry into these positions appears to be a very positive gain .
Just tonight i went through and established stops for the majority of my new positions- In this new allocation, i took a number of new and possibly more speculative positions. The Thinking is that this pullback represents a swing low sell that should not be breached and thus a stop under this low will allow for some volatility, yet should not be breached if the uptrend continues.
STops are set - somewhat wide...and too many small spec positions ....
While this tactical approach is interesting to be engaged in , it is time intensive, and requires a lot of focus - moving forward, i would ideally narrow the investment portfolio down to where this could be viewed on a weekly basis-

[sd]

2-4-21
Markets up modestly this am-
Yesterday I had purchased a starting position in FCG- Nat gas fund I used to be into years ago- vs the UNG . I added to the position today- holding 300 shares.
My just for spec fun SIFY is moving higher today- up +30% above where I entered.
an Indian Telecom co - finance.yahoo.com/news/sify-technologies-limited-nasdaq-sify-063903741.html
I would not chase this here, nor will I add to the position- Penny stocks are penny stocks for a reason- My entire position was just $314.00
I was stopped out on my INDA position for a loss last week, and did not get back into it this week- Price moves in INDA very volatile.
instructive to watch a breakout on this fast 5 min chart-

A recent position- C3.AI IPO in Dec. A unified software approach to data management- Sounds similar to PLTR ?
Interview :https://c3.ai/tom-siebel-is-back-an-interview-with-the-ceo-and-founder-of-c3-ai/
c3.ai/#unify-all-your-data


The recent market pullback last Friday offers a significant market Swing Low - With Price penetrating the 21 ema and also the 50 ema, from where we have rebounded this week. Back in Sept, and Oct. we had 2 significant price pullbacks that both came back to have price pullback initially to the 50 ema in Sept, bounce higher for 3 days, and then the deeper selling continued. Notice the wide spread in the emas in September- so momentum had been very strong to the upside. Almost a -10% decline from the high. The Oct. rally failed to make a new high-essentially a dbl top, pulled back-almost to the 50-tried to move higher for 2 days, and then the larger decline followed. I would not want to see Price retest the 50 ema again- and I am using this recent price pullback as a drop-dead line in the sand . On some new entries that have not moved significantly in my favor, I am using the red swing low bar as the stop- on others that have been moving higher, I will be adjusting stops to follow. I hope to see SPY make a new high- Close above $386.00


BATT POSITION APPLYING A STOP BELOW THE RECENT SWING LOW
THE Batt ETF had trended solidly since Nov. Like many other EV ETFs, it had recently increased it's momentum as can be seen with the widening gap between the fast ema and the 21 ema. While it moved up earlier this week, today it is not participating-
The logical stop-loss is just .5 % to -1% below the swing low-


I belatedly added back into ARKW today- I had overlooked adding to it earlier this week- I had added SKYY as a new position.
ARKW is both the long term and short term outperformer .


The Shorts have Left? Read a piece that suggested that many institutional shorts have pulled their short plays back in....

Markets Rallying again today on good earnings Beats- 85% of companies reporting have exceeded expectations.

I added several new ETFs today-100 GNOM- global genomics underperforms ARKG- but is perhaps lesser followed. It also showed weakness in the sell-off, and likely holds some of the same stocks - and possibly some others- I am also long HTEC on a Global healthcare exposure.



I also added ANEW- Proshares Transformational Changes ETF - Similar to ARKK in that as a fund it has exposure to multiple different themes
www.proshares.com/anew/?gcli


Due to the recent sell-off, I have initiated a lot more small individual stock positions- But ETFs are still my primary Investments.
I went back into the tech Dividend fund TDV- but reduced my position in OUSM dividend fund -selling 100 of the 150 shares- It's a tactical shift that admittedly is more aggressive to growth, but aside from a surprise sell-off in the markets, we are seeing improving jobs, improving vaccinations, and are not but a few months away from getting back to some sense of normalcy. Still awaiting our vaccinations to become available. Recently started using the grocery shopping service- and so our venturing Out is limited to putting on boots and walking over to the wood shed to put another log on the woodstove.LOL.

TAN has pulled back today. I had not reentered this yet- and so took a position but watched the 5 min chart as it was declining . I entered
on the psar buy under price...


Markets strong into the Close- That bodes well for a positive Friday -Start at least...
Best performer % wise today - LOL- SIFY up 35% on the day . Setting a Wide stop-loss to see if this can get pushed higher Friday.
If this had been a larger position, I would set a stop under the swing low $2.90
When seeing the high volume wide bars above the fast ema - That is a Climax high- well away from the ema-and could be sold into that type of excess move.

[sd]

2-5-2021
Market futures higher- looking for a premarket jobs report-
Ford up this week on their announced commitment to Electric.
AAPL up on a possible Apple Car with Hyundai- 5 years out.
Democrats pass the stimulus bill with VP the tie breaking vote.

Interesting Fact- As i reviewed my original spreadsheet of my initial positions near the start of this year, Had i simply held those positions, my account value would be higher by + 4%. I initially had a higher weighting in the ARK funds, and in the process of getting stopped out and reentry, decided to reduce the ARK holdings and differentiate into other similar innovation funds. ARK funds are so well followed- Everybody owns them now.
I then added GNOM as well as holding ARKG- SKYY as well as ARKW, MOON, ANEW as well as ARKK.




Bought SNAP TODAY as it's price had gapped down at the open, and then has recovered - Paid $60.50 for 38 shares as a momentum reversal play.
I would think this bullish price reversal will have some follow through next week.

DAILY CHART:



It appears that the markets are setting up to Close up strong for the Week- after last week's selling , it's a relief.
A number of stocks are showing strength- Small caps breaking out to a new high, likely encouraged by the President's confirmation of his intent to get a stimulus package out there. I belatedly just reentered IWM today- on the breakout with the final bit of unsettled funds.



PRNT the best performer of the Ark funds today-and for the week. ARKW, ARKQ,IZRL are also making new highs. As Are MOON, HTEC, CNBS,YOLO,BEAM,ERSX,SKYY,IBUY,INMD,IPO,KOMP,KWEB,ANEW,QQQJ,RYT,SNAP,UFO,YOLO- F
THE emerging mkt/China funds are almost back to a new high-
Notably, TSLA is sideways this week.
Obviously , I am believing that we will continue to see higher markets in the weeks ahead on building optimism - Vaccines, Stimulus, Fed, and good earnings overall.... The market is looking forward, and Not in the rear view Mirror.

This has been a good week for the Accts- primarily due to going back in Long Monday and Tuesday-
Last week was a losing week and somewhat discouraging with a number of positions stopping out.
This week saw the opposite side of that swing from pessimism over to Optimism in the markets- I think a majority of last week's actions were due to the Hedge funds covering their shorts and selling a lot of the good long names they had profits in - which simply generated other quant sell orders
Fortunately, it was somewhat contained.
From Last WEEK:
It's been a Losing week- The Van combined account is $227,553.00

End of WEEK 2-5-21
From the starting balance of 2021 $214,037
last week - $227,553 had a 6.3% YTD gain
This WEEK $ 237,602 had a net gain of $10,049.00 Gain - from last week-or +4.3% 1 week gain.
THIS WEEK 2021 YTD + $23,565.00 YTD Performance is +11%.
At least for this week- As last week taught us, Gains on paper can drop quickly.

RECAP: The good 1 week performance was due to getting in quickly and recognizing/believing the trend had turned up Monday- and also continued Tuesday. Getting back into a lot of positions Close to the prior Friday sell bar, was making a very narrow Risk trade-overall. Alan Farley would have blessed those entries! Risk is reduced by entering Close to the point where one can set a stop- in this case - a swing low Red bar-found across many of the charts.
The RISK that is always there is that the trend would stall and reverse- but that is always the case isn't it? And that is our FEAR that we are getting in too early- or -too late- But in the grander scheme of things- the daily and even the weekly moves are "NOISE" as the Trend is continuing HIGHER-
With that realization, I'll adjust stops this weekend- but not too tight- I added some individual Biotech names this week- and those can be brutal to the downside if they disappoint. I also had stopped out on of the dividend funds last week, and put the majority of those assets into more momentum names. I reduced OUSM to just 50 shares, and TDV as my 2% active dividend holdings. I also added back into EEM/China/Global Small caps
and aggressively put $$$ into some of the other innovation funds outside of the ARK funds.
Of the individual stocks, I'm holding numerous small positions- many below 1% port weighting- TSLA, ROKU are 2 exceptions that come to mind-
I'd like to contain the downside Risk to less than 5% , but that may not be possible without engaging a trailing stop Closer to the trending price-

With SPAC speculation all the recent momentum rage, I allocated $3,000 to 3 Spacs IPOD,IPOE,IPOF - all presently profitable- but these are pure momentum gambles being funded by the popularity of one of the promoters... This is reminiscent of the 99-2000 era where i gave back all of my gains and a good chunk of principal. Thus, I'm willing to play as long as the waters are flowing in the right direction-
But, just like those poor "believers" in the Redditt/GME slaughter- The retail investor was left holding the bag as the air comes out.
The smart money sold early- leaving the scraps for the crowd of Reddit new investors/believers. They should have a Lemming tatoo, jumping off the cliff...together.... .All tuned in to the same frequency- yes -it's 2000 again for portions of this market-
I just read an article that did a study of Spacs and found that 75% of them failed to deliver gains-
One recent Spac-Clover Health- has come under fire by Hindenburg citing potential withholding of critical information.
This was just one of a group of SPACs brought out by Billionare Chamath Palihapitiya, who was expected to put in $100 million, and others. Hindenburg accused billionaire Palihapitiya of misleading investors when he took Clover Health public, calling him the “King of SPACS.”
www.pymnts.com/news/ipo/2021/sec-probes-clover-health-actions-in-going-public-via-spac/
I hold small $1,000 positions in 3 other Spac he has brought out- Presently- all are net profitable, but I will be tightening stops on all 3

[sd]

2-6-21
I think I previously mentioned this- I heard from my coworkers from the job where I retired due to concerns about Covid- All 3 of our company personnel ended up with the Covid- Fortunately, they all came through it OK and are back to work. Good Timing on my part to Retire-

I looked at my starting spreadsheet that I had generated in Jan. I had not kept up with Buys and Sells in it - many changes have since been made-
Had I stayed with those original positions, and not used stops, I would have gained +4% more than where I am presently- The trade-off in using stops is that it has allowed me to take Higher Risk- and possibly Higher reward positions in this Retirement account- There is always a gamble that some black Swan event would generate a flash crash and stops would execute at significantly lower prices-30-40% below where the stop is set.
The only way to prevent this would be to have a stop w/limit order - The STOP- would be the Activation price to become a Market sell...
The Limit would be the least amount that the position could be sold at. I think this would be prudent to start setting Stop-Limit orders vs market STOPS.

I'll learn to update the Google-Drive spreadsheet with a RISK % - based on the stop-loss initially set- This may be more number crunching than I want to engage in, but it should prove instructive.

[sd]

Reviewing progress-
The Vanguard account- including the conventional IRA and also the ROTH IRA -Combined Year to date has returned a respectable 10.8% in 6 weeks.
YTD 2021 ; The smaller Roth account returned +16% and the IRA returned 8.5% A good start to this year. I think my net Risk due to using stops is -5 to -8% in the event of a market wide sell-off.

in 2020 I allowed the Roth account to be fully invested-with stops and considered it to be the "Risk" while I only gradually made diverse and conservative investments in the IRA. I experimented with holding a large % in dividend funds- as long as they were uptrending- and some large funds like VXUS. As the sell-off started at the end of Feb, stops were getting hit, I shifted some assets into Vanguard Value funds- or the Minimum Volatility funds- and I think they became my largest actual loss even though I sold them as they continued to decline.
As we entered into 2021- The IRA was fully engaged, and holding a number of broad funds and dividend funds .
The ROTH held a number of innovation funds- Including most of the ARK funds and that prompted most of the gains and outperformance.

Using the S&P 500 -SPY as the benchmark - it has a 22% 1 year return from the 1st week in Feb.
My combined Van accounts had a 1 year return- this week -of +27% - slightly ahead of the S&P
The Conservative IRA had a 1 year return of 20.6% .
The Roth had a 1 yr return of +44% .
Both of the equity curves reflect a shift following the October sell off to get back long- and that was done more aggressively by shifting assets-towards the more aggressive Tech sector- I had gained some confidence during the year, used stops- reentered -


I am similarly positioned today more aggressively now in both accounts . No one can predict what tomorrow- or next week will bring- but I believe it favors more upside than the downside- . Eventually, there will be a shift & reset of valuations-and i will continue to deploy stops along the way ....
The VAN Roth is still positioned more aggressively than the Van IRA- but i am now aggressive in both accounts. Roth holding a considerable % in ARK and Innovation funds-
In the IB account, that is the trading account- and is a considerably lesser amount, but higher on the Risk.

Until 6 weeks ago, With a Day job, I simply viewed positions at the end of Day - EOD- it's been interesting these past 6 weeks to view in real time- but the goal is to Outperform the markets, yet not be tied to watching the markets everyday . In making the asset allocation shift to be more aggressive- including more individual stock positions, more innovation funds including ARK funds, emerging markets and small caps- I'm really positioned for an economic recovery boom in 2021- I've included a lot of ETFs, but also finding that there are a lot of sector focused ETFs that really may bring added momentum- or downside - and so, the learning curve continues- At last count, I am holding over 70 positions in the Roth & IRA- many are smaller 1% positions- As well as some individual stocks now in play.... And, it's pursuing a momentum market -
place- That is the tenor presently. Fragile- yes. Anything could derail this market- But it looks to go much higher.....

The ROTH has been more aggressive and outperformed:

The IRA performance by shifting allocations: