SD- 2021- ACTIVE MANAGEMENT FOR GREATER SUCCESS IN 2021

[sd]

12-23-21

Futures mildly in the Green
This was yesterday's EOD Sector/index results


Will have to view the markets later in the day- Errands to run this AM.
Of 3 present trades in IB- UBER<GILD<AMX; UBER is doing the best- I have added to the position 2x since my 1st entry
12-20 50 @ $40.02 add 12-21 25 $41.23; 12-22 25 $ 42.33

[sd]

12-27-21
Futures mildly in the Green
Great Christmas with Family !
Now, will the markets deliver on a seasonally strong 7 days- at least Historically?

Lots of "News" about the spread of OMNICRON - Some 1500 flights cancelled over the weekend due to the virus affecting crew staffing-
games postponed,
Tom LEE bullish on the market rallying higher here- into Jan-
Expectations are that the virus is much more contagious, but potentially less lethal-
Valuations do matter- We should expect that market rotations will continue, and that over priced high flyers will come under deeper scrutiny.
TSLA filled the gap last week to $900 and rebounded higher!
As we enter this week, I'm holding 4 trades taken last week- 3 were bottom fishing - UBER,RIVN,ARKQ . AMX was a trending from the 52 week highs- I will look again for other trades that are making new highs today-

ADDED to RIVN on the price breaking higher-a MOMO trade - Doubled the position to 20 shares in the IB.
Setting a buy-stop to Add to ARKQ only if it exceeds Friday's highs.
Bought a few new 52 week highs -small 1k positions as experiments KZR,NTR,ON,
Buy-stop orders waiting to hit the entry stop on GFS,EXTR,CSV



RIVN added to the position. Took a 1st entry Thursday at the Close - On the break higher move this am added to the position 10 + 10 =20
stop is very tight $98.28



ARKQ moved above that initial price high made in the opening, followed by a pullback- I set an entry Buy- using a stop price to add to the position only if Price moved up to $79.08 the morning opening high was $79.04- so I wanted to give it just a bit of room to enter- so instead of trying to get in @ .01 above price- I gave it $.04 - as the stop price- which filled at my limit $78.12


ADDED EW as an investment focused trade today in the Van Account- and also SCHW-
I'm somewhat trying to position myself for
I had sold the majority of my AAPL position on a stop hit last week-

As of today, I am all-in in the 2 Van accounts and the IB.
KZR trade stopped out -Entry $16.09 @ 9:36 Stopped out $15.69 @ 11:29

I have several different types of trades on -IN THE IB account & also the Van

The "BOTTOM FISHING " TRADE-
A higher Risk trade- seeking a stock that appears to have potentially been oversold, presently may have found a bottom, and is trying to make a move higher- UBER,RIVN,ARKQ,TROW,DRIV, IWM



and THE "MAKING NEW HIGHS" Trades and a few
ON,NTR,AMX,SCHW, EW




UBER is not participating in today's rally, but I have an entry @ $40.94 avg cost- and a stop @ $42.50 -
BEST trade today is RIVN - as I added to the position on todays breakout- RIVN is up over 10% today - My position is seeing a significant move today. TSLA, F,GM, LCID all higher today- Last week I added a DRIV position in the Van account



pRESENTLY, THE RALLY THAT STARTED LAST WEEK IS STILL WORKING TO THE LONG SIDE!

ALL SECTORS in the Green today!


ARKQ- reduced the position by selling 25 shares- It did not hold the morning gains- Sold for $78.86 -loss of $.08 Holding 15 shares overnight, Position size is reduced ...lack of performance and to free up some cash

Selling 50 UBER - to lock in gains- Debating with myself on the Remaining position stop loss will be raised to today's lows, or to Sell into the Close....

S&P MAKES IT'S 69TH RECORD CLOSE!

tHE fAST mONEY discussion- 5 Tech stocks are responsible for 50% of the S&P gains made this year-
The big gains provided by AAPL, MSFT and the other FANG/big tech are what kept the index elevated!

Just learned that UBER is the 2nd largest holder of DIDI - the chinese stock that is delisted after coming Public @ $14 in the US, and is now trading @ $5.30- The Company announced they will not allow pre IPO BUYers to sell even after the 180 day lockup expires! Now that's China's imperialistic iron fist at work!




Santa was good- Got the BYRNA - Definitely like the self-defense/non-lethal aspects!
Fun to shoot -I will post on it in the future-

[sd]

12-28-21

Futures slightly in the Green!

Joseph Carlson discusses his dividend approach, and delves into Cathy Wood's ARKK fund and future projections of 30-40% compounded gains
Excellent critical analysis he gives:
www.youtube.com/watch?v=qwPj2LqkRhs

SPY, DIA making a brand new high this 10 am! QQQ's close to a new high-

Hi valuation Auto stocks weak today TSLA, RIVN, LCID..... Position in RIVN- Setting a higher sell-stop loss for 1/2 the position under today's lower levels $102.90
UBER -lower open, followed by a move higher- turning lower - setting a stop $42.75 for 1/2 of the remaining 50 share position- Sold 50 shares yesterday .Cost basis for the shares $41.83 Sold 25....

RIVN position has stopped out -locked in gains.
UBER about to hit my elevated stop-loss $42.75 on the remaining position.
I've gotten aggressive in the IB account with raising stops- and not allowing a winning trade to become a loser-
With a lack of performance today- Sold or stopped out: UBER<RIVN< ON,NTR -for small gains- ARKQ- small loss.

Of 4 remaining positions in IB- all are positive and stops are just above my Entry cost- AMX, GFS, GILD, EXTR

i'M using the IB account to experiment with a more aggressive approach including being more aggressive in raising stops on weakness-


EOD- Markets weakened , stops on EXTR and GFS both executed as the upside moves lost momentum. AMX and GILD, are the remaining positions in the IB, with the stop-loss above the cost of entry. The funds from today's sales will not be available until Friday - 3 days...
Somewhat of a radical approach-

As goes the Tide- so goes the market's participants- What started out mildly bullish this am , Closed the Day mildy Bearish- Not a good Omen for Day 2 of a Santa rally.
And Bitcoin dropped -7% today- Crypto not feeling it at the end of 2021
GLD is also a loser in 2021

What worked today? Not much of where I'm positioned-


Ross Cameron - on holding losers:
www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PL1xI23WKVWie4exdkT7uLNuyDuKDuK1tH

[sd]

12-29-21
Futures are Flat- Santa Claus rally not so much-
AEO- rec by Fast Money as an oversold retailer- Bottom fishing expedition.
May make a small buy-stop/limit order here-24.75 -24.85
finance.yahoo.com/news/aerie-online-strength-aid-american-142702334.htmlrticle by Zacks- likes BOOT a lot better!

Elon Musk made his final Sell of TSLA - Taking a belated buy-stop entry on a resumption of this recent up move from the $900 back and fill- buy-stop limit 1105-1120

TW stop limit 102.50 - 102.75

bought AVGO on stop-limit $675.33
AEO $24.82 cost basis.
GILD stopped out at the open $72.66
Buying MU as it is making a new high today - Initial run up to $95.94, pulling back-slightly- setting a buy-stop $95.80
with a limit $95.95- may adjust this down as price declines-

EOD- AEO gained +5% today- holding it overnight as a swing trade along with MU, AVGO (both flat on my entry)

Nasdaq finished slightly in the Red today- Defensive sectors led the day. Real Estate ,healthcare,staples and Utilities today's gainers.

[sd]

12-30-21
Futures slightly in the green-
Review the recent trades-
The market is relatively flat, with today and tomorrow ideally seeing some buying- as end of year/Tax Loss selling has likely been accomplished.
Musk dumped another load of shares yesterday- well beyond his need to cover the Tax burden on his Options/gains.
With the markets somewhat sloppy here- my recent trades this week in IB are all about minimizing a loss
Also experimenting with the bottom fishing trades, and intending to aggressively sell on weakness-
As well as the 52 week high entries-
Bought MU, AVGO yesterday as they were both higher- both have raised guidance-
AMX - bought a few days ago- but it has barely any movement-The ideal entry would have been on the breakout above the prior highs-on the 1st day of the upmove- Still, it has a solid green on the Buy Volumes- so I'll stay with it, but it is clearly extended above the 50 ema, MACD still well above the 0.0 line.
Reducing some indicators on this chart-
Using the MACD Histogram (gold bars) overlaid with the Stochastic-
Parabolic PSAR - pink dots--




MU warning this am that China production may affect it's availability... Just took a position yesterday-MU down -1% premarket after I initiated an entry yesterday!
Viewing the new PSAR Buy scans-list
A commodity/metals play -REMX, rARE EARTH METALS etf TSCO, FAST, HUBG rOGERS HAS AN AG ETF :RJA SMALL MOVER, LOW RISK ,LOWER VOLUME

REMX- Predominant uptrend as defined by a rising 200 ema- presently in a pullback after making a new high 11-30 Pullback was relatively deep, below the 50 ema, making an upmove the past 5 days, Price recovering above the ema's and making a solid Close near the intraday highs-
Buy-stop entry above the 111.05 (Yesterday's high $110.99) limit 111.25
Commodity/metals/rare earths etf. PSAR Buy; MACD 1st bar above the MACD 0.0 line-Elder green bars : Target $116.00 entry stop $108.38
RISK = $1.62 =1.5% TARGET =4.5% 1:3 RISK TO REWARD



Video of my rationale for taking this as a trade
vimeo.com/661185435/5ef6cf643a

A trade on commodities- Jim Rodgers Agriculture ETF :RJA
A slow moving -lower volatility trade- AG- commodity trade- a relatively low Risk trade has a 33% YTD return....
RJR buy-stop $8.78 limit $8.82 stop-loss to be $8.63.

video 10:10 am
vimeo.com/661208476/32a3a85b99

added VSTO - interview on CNBC with very bullish outlook- Entry $44.63



Buying RIVN @ $104.00 - buying the upmove-




TSLA announcing a 500,000 vehicle recall today !



INteresting SA Article on having a multi bucket approach to a portfolio-
I particularly found the results of the QQQ-TLT rotational portfolio impressive-
seekingalpha.com/article/4477308-near-perfect-portfolio-for-bull-markets-and-bear-markets?


Guy Adami, Dan Nathan, Liz Young, Carter Worth -Weekly market analysis and a new expanded format in 2022
kvgo.com/oetv/mktcall_live_dec30_dglc

Added this pm - Small positions- ARKG, ARK biotech etf



SITM - a small cap quartz replacement company- Analyst on CNBC very bullish on the company.



Even today, the ARK funds are seeing gains as well as chines stocks-
These trades today are all individually small positions- most were based on positive momentum going into tomorrow as the last day of the year- .

The RJA trade will have to wait if the assets clear tomorrow -should it move higher
YOU is a big momentum mover I entered late in the day.... It's a security name for airports, concerts etc that Grasso believes has significant upside - particularly if the OMICRON virus indeeds peaks as Dr Fauchi expects by the End of January.


CHART OVERVIEW OF TODAY'S TRADES-

vimeo.com/661278221/7347b6515d

[sd]

12-31-21
NEW YEARS EVE!
Final trading day of 2021 and the Futures are uninspired premarket- slightly in the RED.
Nas improving-
Does not appear to be much momentum today!
The IB trades I took yesterday is what I will be watching closely today.
a bit of free cash in the IB to add to a trade or a position if one shows strength today-

Going into the open: Nas in the green-
vimeo.com/661440470/29893f0c31

Adjusting stops on these trades as we near 10 am- Didn't have any large gainers or losers at the open-
Just me rambling on as I view the charts post 10 am and set some stops- also adding some buy-stops to see if RIVN sees any buyer momentum to push it higher today. Took a small position in BITO- bitcoin ETF-

vimeo.com/661444550/1bc0031cf3
YOU stops out $32.77 for a loss. somehow the order left 7 shares???

MSFT -held in the Van Roth stopped out as it dropped lower today-I intend to continue to swing trade MSFT
AAPL SOLD.
BITO STOPS OUT-
ARKG Stops out.

Markets Closed out 2021 with a whimper



End of Year Tally:
A lot to be thankful for-
We are all healthy, and blessed with 4 granddaughters and a grandson -in law as our youngest daughter remarried. Can't ask for much more than that.
I've been retired for a year now, and have enjoyed this past year of spending more day time viewing the markets, learning and experimenting- During the late fall of 2020 and the 1st few months of 2021, I made easy gains on the overall accounts- but then got chopped in the ensuing market rotations as the year progressed-and gave back a good portion of my gains- Self Managing a larger portion of my retirement savings was a responsibility that I felt I was not doing well when the market volatility and rotations were whipsawing me in many trades- I wanted to retain the remaining profits I had accumulated in the Easy Momentum earlier, and so I elected to take a good portion of my retirement monies and turned them over to an Edelman Financial Adviser - that uses a diversified 14 ETF model with active rebalancing.
They took 1/3 of the monies each month and made investment allocation adds , and should be fully invested at this time - I haven't bothered to look at that new account since turning it over- Will get around to it this next year.
I easily outperformed Capitol Financial that manages the other portion of my IRA-They have delivered relatively Pitiful 5 year returns compared to the market's returns-. Both in gains and limiting drawdowns - The Adviser there says he doesn't try to benchmark his approach against the market - but he also charges a 1.70% combined fee.and had a considerable drawdown in the pullbacks when the market tanked- without the benefit of a commensurate higher return during the major market momentum gains. I'll compare their performance this 2022 year and determine whether I can afford to continue with the adviser that gives such lackluster performance.
Results count - and I have to be self Critical -
I've gotten sloppy in the IB account, but that is where i'm experimenting with some discretionary and active trades- As i go forward, I intend to differentiate the Van IRA along an Investment theme with ETFs primarily, The Van Roth both an investment and individual stock swing trade positions, and the IB account for more active swing trades- I had a 100% gain in 2020 in the IB account, but I have failed to build on that in 2021- and that was while taking End of Day trades while I was working full time-
So 2022 requires a better disciplined approach with stop losses set early on- and an eye on valuations, as the markets are really reevaluating what they are willing to pay for growth years down the road....
And I would be remiss if I failed to mention those past board members here that have influenced me to be a bit smarter and kept me from Blowing out my little trading account with good advice on adopting Position Sizing as part of my learning curve-
With IRA being the final remaining member taking his leave from Investing/ Trading this year, I wish him well and a gentle transition. As this has become my Blog of sorts, Thanks also to my friend Swift- for sharing your thoughts as well as differences of opinion!

Drum Roll:
Van IRA $22,039 Van Roth $21,600 IB ROTH $18,082

Happy and Safe New Year!

[sd]

MSFT failed to get above the mid December High- and has been trading in a sideways range in December , after making a new high in November. Rolled over on the Fast Renko after failing to push beyond the recent mid month level. I elected to Sell to lock in the gain. It also broke the Renko, as well as below the 4 hr fast ema.
Could the Renko charts become an alternative way to view & confirm trades? Something to explore in 2022.
this is a 60 min chart to only show the hourly Close levels. Below this chart, is the 60 min Renko set to show the Hi-LO swings.



The 2 HOUR Renko chart - each box represents a move of $2.35- This is set to show the Hi-LO in any 2 hr period that exceeds $2.35 above or below the prior box. Notice this wider time frame also changes the PSAR settings- 2 PSAR settings the standard 0.02,0.2 and an intentionally slower PSAR 0.01,0.2- Initially a 3 box change in an uptrend would cross the fast ema.
The next chart is a 4 hr . Each box represents a $4.10 change in price.
Final Chart is a 1 year ,2 month- with a psar BUY in NOV 2020, yielding to a psar SELL in Nov 2021- Each box represents $6.70




Final chart is 1 year , 2 months - with PSAR Buy in Nov 2020, and PSAR SELL- Nov 2021!
Potentially an entry @ $220, with a Sell @ $326. -approx +57% gain


Something to understand about Renko is that price can move above and below the active box by a penny below the box value- and the existing box will not change-
The present top of the Daily box is $341.70 and so the bottom of the box is valued @ $341.70 - 6.70 =
$335.00. Today, MSFT closed @ $336.32, inside the box parameters-
Price could go as low as 335- $6.69 (328.61) and a new lower box will not be made until the price goes down to $328.60 .

to illustrate the recent price range over the past 2 months, a bar chart for illustrations :

[sd]

Will be investing in some IBonds this week- before the 0ct 28 cut off date- Limited to 10k per person.
Annual rate of return for the 1st 6 months is a guaranteed 9.62% (+4.81%/6 months) and then the new rate in Nov is anticipated to be a more modest 6%+-
This is a very decent 12 month SAFE rate of return over +7 months- designed to be held for 5 years- but since the Rates may go lower in future years, the bond can be sold- and will get charged the most recent 3 months interest- So, if held for 15 months- you get a 3 month penalty in interest earned -but retain the 12 month return of at least +7%. A no brainer- Do your own due diligence of course.
www.treasurydirect.gov/
Sunday- considering portfolio construction with an investment thesis
Growth has outperformed value since 2015--Time for a change???
SCHWAB presentation :
www.schwabassetmanagement.com/content/positioning-client-portfolios-potential-market-cycle-change





Personally, I have shifted into more Value oriented funds in the Van. as my expectation of a recovery will be somewhat muted and- due to the excess upside- we likely grind for a longer time. If the rally that started this week continues into next week, (and into the upcoming election as the Republicans look to be gaining seats)

Time on my hands-Decisions to be made Today in terms of what portion of I disagreeets I determine to reacquire and self manage-


Tom Sossnoff-2015 Ted Talk. RISK- Talks about investing over a 20 year span- and losing over 19 consecutive business investments he tried -But instead of licking his wounds and going into investing "Safely" - He went on and helped build "Think or Swim " the trading platform bought for huge $$$ by TD Ameritrade.
He talks about being willing to take a quantitative Risk- and not necessarily taking it all in passive investing.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=974Igxkvf34&t=11s

Tom Sossnoff -Importance of taking Risk and learning to self invest- Discusses the Ponzi scheme of conventional guided fees/investing-via the tradional passive model we have learned. Step out of the safety zone and become that entrepenaur (sp?) Be purposefull in your endeavors-

www.youtube.com/watch?v=jgMW1-Nqym8

Paul Meeks- 2017 Ted Talk
Insightful talk about the inability of most active professional managers to outperform the indexes- Thus arose Passive diversified investing.
He advocates a portfolio capable of having being both long and also short investments.- Also understand the swing of the Pendulum - Invest Globally -caveat there - but valid on a pe level in 2022

www.youtube.com/watch?v=na7lPazbpoI



As my Edelman investment adviser assures and points out- The market cycle for many decades has rewarded a mixed diversified portfolio that no one can foretell what the leading asset will be next year- but by being diversified , you will not have any 10 year period suffer a loss because the markets continue to ultimately go higher-
Unfortunately, my timing in giving Edelman some monies to professionally diversify (reduce Risk) long term gain- wasw exactly 1 year ago going into a final increment in Dec 2021-
Their model adjusts Risk by revbalancing not the individual ETFs against themselves, but against the bond portion of the portfolio-
Since Bonds are an anomoly in 2022, and crashing hard with rising rates, rising yields= a drop in bond valuations- The model has not performed as it would have done in the past years. They do not have any other method of protection -other than historical long term performance - that waill eventually see a recovery back to profitability.


Right wing Robert Kiyosaki -
On the evolution of the societal shifts and controls seen occurring around the world on a global scale- Ultimately this is controlled by the world's financial institutions- Alternative -radical- right wing thinking about a bigger global threat we should be aware of -Well presented and already seen as the ESG movement has translated to a standard of "compliance" with the global initiatives- and funding is selectively withheld from those that are not in compliance-
Give it a listen-
www.youtube.com/watch?v=E4ZDEaqYQDs

Discouraging? Certainly seems that way-
But- -Consider Warren Buffet- and the lessons he learned from Benjamen Graham -in "The Intelligent Investor" on understanding a business model, market fluctuations- and on Buying a business.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=Uw_QyeHo8f0&list=RDLVh89uOvUDVO4&start_radio=1

Warren Buffett-brings on an important key business perspective: in terms of building a business. Discusses the importance of delivering a positive customer experience - and -for those in business, it's essential-
Nothing in here at all about investing -other than believing in yourself and your willingness to build a business on delivering a better customer experience.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=h89uOvUDVO4

[sd]

So much information available, so few dollars, so many choices!

Using top-down Sector performance approach-
This link is to a Barcharts.com Webinar
www.barchart.com/education/webinars/51/using-sector-analysis-to-find-trading-candidates

Predictive weather trends affecting commodities & crops?
www.climatepredict.com
www.youtube.com/watch?v=oADl9F9ptHw


As we've learned in 2022- Treasuries inverted; 2 yr/10 yr- with the 2 year yield higher than the 10 yr-
As the Yield goes higher- The treasury bond value falls lower.
The $TNX chart is the Yield for the 10 year-
Tom Bowley at Earnings beat in July wrote an article with charts--
As we know, the markets put in a June rally, the yield dropped lower at the same time-and the markets then rolled over again to make a new low while Yields went on to make a new high.



Earnings Beat:also offers a free weekly newsletter- and a subscription service. -I get the free newsletter.





While the bond yield was dropping, the market began to set up for the June rally - Worth taking note of- As the yields turned back up, the rally lost momentum-
So it's not a 100% direct correlation- but it certainly is worth watching how the 2 interact on the dance floor-