SD- 2021- ACTIVE MANAGEMENT FOR GREATER SUCCESS IN 2021

[sd]

Outstanding 1 day gain! Great timing LOL!-
" Trust the charts, not my mood. I had a one day gain today of 25%, PLTR. I bought it 2 days ago. I've been bullish about it since I first learned of it. I think I need to be willing to sell it if it starts going down. I've been guilty of holding losers too long. I want to make sure that habit stays in my past."
I also think trusting the charts is essential- so Consider your Thursday BUY- $26.00 +/- and price has now broken out of a sideways wide range 6 weeks in the building. and is Close to that prior $33.50 high made in late Nov. So, the Friday Close is Higher than that Nov high open that marked the peak of momentum at that time. This push higher Friday appears very promising- and often, Price can move substantially higher after breaking out from a long Basing period- While a 25% gain in just 1 day is remarkable, what is the potential for PLTR?
Consider that it is not uncommon for Price to see some initial profit taking and a pullback "test" on a breakout or a gap move- This looks very promising to continue to move even higher quickly as the move was made on large volume and Closed near the High of the day.- Because there are a lot of market momentum active participants- this move may see considerable upside- Obviously, it should never retrace back to see the Lows of the range made as it dipped down into 2021.
Since we never know how Price will perform, the Chart provides the Graphic to keep it in perspective-If this positive move continues to have momentum higher- ideally it will trend, and the next series of Price bars will be higher- and Not Closing below the Fast (7) ema . It is worth studying the prior uptrend period from when PLTR came public.
It based in OCT for 4 weeks- Notice the declining Orange Dots- PSAR to be considered as a buy-stop entry on a higher move- went positive (Buy signal) 2 days before the bigger up move started- Similarly , Psar went to Bu mode 11-15 . PSAR as a trailing stop in the Nov run up went up to $24.00 although Price gapped down the following day to open @ $21.
A better Tell that the move was peaking was after a series of taller green momentum bars pulled away from the fast ema- These large gap spaces on higher prices and away from the fast ema eventually get pulled back to the Mean- Reversion to the mean- Rubber band stretched too far- Notice the 12-26 bar opened higher, but Closed low and inside the prior bar's range. Coincidentally, that price pullback developed into a period of sideways basing- While I like the PSAR as a reference , Notice that If one had considered the 21 ema as a wider trailing stop , that would have worked out well while price was uptrending- Had price declined below the 21 ema, that would possibly have been the start of a downtrend-
Note that during a sideways basing action- All the emas can-and will converge sideways and are ineffective - as also the case with PSAR- and can generate multiple whipsaw crossovers. But during an established trending period, emas run parallel- it is when the fast ema shows a substantial pull away from the slower ema- as seen in late Nov, it indicates an increase in upwards momentum.
The desire to lock in profits too soon is common, as well as holding on too long when one has made the decision to Buy a stock, one naturally wants to see it succeed. Simply human nature, but the desire to be right can lead us to hold onto a losing position that we believe will ultimately turn and reward our initial decision to go long it- But that is a losing proposition in many instances, and taking a smaller initial controlled Loss is part of trading- and investing- It is our own psychology that we need to act counter to- and apply a sensible stop-loss approach to the trades we make- As You noted, it is also our Fear of an impending market correction - or - the bull market has been too long in the tooth -
that can keep us from stepping in- Embracing a plan with an Exit if the trade goes against us- That's just being disciplined- and should be determined when we take a trade- because that defines our RISK-
For example on PLTR- There are 2 swing low red bars in the recent base- a stop loss .5% or -1% below the red bar lows -since the breakout has occurred- should not ever see price come back that low- The base may see a test pullback- but not the lows of that base - (Just my perception)
Another option is to consider a tool like the PSAR- suggesting a trailing stop loss presently @ $21.68- the 2021 red bar low stop would be $22.00.
The 1-14 red bar stop would be $24- but PSAR follows and over time closes in on price- so it sometimes gets too tight- and if price is behaving- trending, not Closing below the fast ema, as the trend continues the 21 ema will eventually be separate from -and parallel to- the fast ema-
Over time, I am learning to give some trades a bit more room to run- or to take a follow up reentry- By allowing price enough room to have some volatility, but keep trending- can lead to a long term larger gain. A single Close below the fast ema may just be market volatility- but reason enough to tighten a stop below the low -on part of the position-
As I've set up my most recent stops- on larger positions that are in profitable territory- I'm starting to split the position- with a stop-loss just at or above my cost of entry- and then a take profits stop that is wide, but closer to price- as long as price is behaving- I'll give it some room. It's a real balancing act- and -as I did with PLUG, QS, etc- on big momentum moves I will take some off - You will develop your own methodology- in time. Try splitting the stops though- once you have your price move far enough beyond your Cost of Entry- Or, if you get a runaway trend- sell just a portion on a big pullaway from the fast ema- For example- the 11-25 tall bar Closing near $29- selling a portion when that Close was 29, and the fast ema was approx $23.50- - That price was 18% higher than the fast ema- and in hindsight- one could have set a market order to sell a portion at the next day's open. Landry advises to take an initial small profit- so he would be advising you sell a portion of your position at the Close- or the Monday open- Who ever gets so Lucky as to get +25% on Day 2? Must be living right LOL!
I'd see where it and the Markets go Monday-

[sd]

1-23-21- A Long look at ARKQ:
I like the ARK funds, but also with STOPS- At one time I had my entire Van Roth all in ARK funds- I've scaled the position size back a bit but also just added more to PRNT and took an entry this week in IZRL- - The basket of all the ARK funds exceed 20% of my Port- and I recognize that
type of concentration in what are fairly focused funds brings both the opportunity for exceptional gains relative to a broad market fund, but also carries a potentially higher level of RISK- So STOPS are essential -
CATHY WOOD Noted the potential for a future market downside in a Dec 18 interview-https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kfhgbZBWgBE and noted that there is "Nothing Wrong with taking a Profit" and also having some Dry Powder to work with to be a Buyer at lower prices- STOPS will lock in a portion of that Paper profit to be an actual profit-and ideally able to be put to use at lower prices following a market decline.
As I follow a lot of the Ark commentaries on SA, I'm simply surprised that so many new followers are totally blinded by the out performance that they would not consider the potential for a significant decline- With Cramer going on his show this week and telling the World about Cathy Wood's Ark funds incredible performance - Billions of dollars have poured into those funds- as institutional investors and every retail investor has now heard about the incredible gains- Will these funds continue to outperform? Growth is more difficult the more the asset base grows-but as long as the overall market holds up - the ARK funds are in niche areas that likely continue to outperform- We should note Cathy's words as a
ARKQ- Industrial and Automation- This trend is not going away-and i would think as the economy recovers, ARKQ continues to be a winner.
Notice on the chart: The momentum and volume has picked up in 2021- note the gap space widened between the 7 & 21 ema considerably- In 2021 price has not even penetrated below the fast ema- Volume is solidly bullish- PPO line at a high but tightening- A/D line at the high end-
All is Green here - but let's consider a review of what happens when Price stalls, buying momentum evaporates (Perhaps it's not ARKQ specific- just Market volatility) and yet the ARKQ fund is not immune-
Up for some chart study Anyone?

There are 2 periods of declines shown in this 6 month chart-
Following a basing period in August, Price broke out mid August, and moved higher with 16 consecutive bullish green bars, all above the fast ema.
Sept 2 , price made a Gap open high $62.50, filled the gap with price going lower, but closing above the 9-1 High. Notice how wide the gap had become between the 7 &21 ema at this point. This illustrates an increasing price momentum that often ends in a Climax gap higher move -or several days of gaps- . The 9-3 Blue bar Opened lower, and Closed below the Fast ema- This price action generated a PSAR Sell signal. A stop-loss based on psar would execute @ $57.50 , A wider stop at the 21 ema would fill @ $56.00 - Note that a momentum follower possibly would keep trailing a stop at the fast 7 ema would have been stopped out @ $59.00 -
Consider what occurred in the following days- a series of sideways choppy and wide bars - all below the fast ema give way to some bullish green bars that appear to be a rally higher- with 3 days closing above the fast ema- surely a rally was about to occur. Interestingly , the declining psar values above the price rally do not recognize the rally- and so a psar follower would have waited an additional 2 weeks to make the Buy- missing the decline to $52.00. Take Note that the Peak to the low was a decline of -16%. and totally gave back all the gains made since the August breakout - 8 weeks earlier- This would take an emotional toll on any investor seeing his investment Rise and then fall.

Consider the 2nd period- following the late Sept move higher- Price rallied -generated a psar Buy ,exceeded $62.50 , broke down below the fast ema, and declined to $57.00 - Which also put in a higher Low- and a higher High- Potentially the definition of an uptrend.
Following the decline into November, Price again broke out higher, but this time has caught an extended uptrend- The majority of the basing periods are stair step short periods of a few days, with just a few penetrations below the fast ema. The psar gave 1 buy and sell and repurchase in this 3 month period, but is presently quite tight to the fast ema. In that light, I would view the prior basing range -$85.00 as a possible support level, and a potential stop . At some point in the future, we will see a similar price stall as in Sept, and November.
However, PSAR is too tight to the 7 ema to be a practical stop loss on a recent entry- Perhaps the 21 ema $83.00?

[sd]

1-24-21 Nothing better than watching the football play-offs and adjusting stops- Congrats to the Old Guy- Brady!
I'm using a daily chart, 5,21,50 ema
PPO, Stoch-RSI, and the A/D line
conventional PSAR 0.02
Allowing some wider stops- on some positions- The thinking behind that decision is that the markets are still bullish- The new Administration
is putting forth a new stimulus agenda- The Fed and Yellen are pro market stimulus- It certainly appears a Global recovery is underway- and
Emerging markets and China will be beneficiaries of global growth and recovery.
I expect the Commodity plays will benefit on the back of a global recovery- Holding a number of positions in the commodity space-but these are not big momentum movers- just offsetting some of the momentum plays- These positions are more defensive in nature- and depending on how things unfold during the rest of January
Will split a few stops . Wider on the others -particularly once Price has extended higher to allow the stop to be wide and still above the cost of Entry. Should the markets manage to trend higher in the week ahead, I would hope to get all positions with stops at or slightly above my Cost of Entry-,
and it looks like KC will be the opposition-team-

[ira85]

I'm immediately struck by how much work you did to review your analysis of 2 of my holdings. I certainly hope you benefit from this analysis. You probably spent more time working on my holdings the past 2 days than my paid advisor spent on my account the past 6 months. It does seem you are becoming more comfortable addressing multiple TA issues. I am nowhere near being able to recognize many of the fine points that you do. I need to study more. I've read most of the content in Chart School at StockCharts. But a one time reading is not enough to be able to do the kind of detailed analysis you are doing.. I hope this work proves to be profitable for you. That seems likely. I will go back and study how to work with psar. Thanks! -ira

[sd]

I certainly hope you benefit from this analysis. You probably spent more time working on my holdings the past 2 days than my paid advisor spent on my account the past 6 months. It does seem you are becoming more comfortable addressing multiple TA issues. I am nowhere near being able to recognize many of the fine points that you do. I need to study more. I've read most of the content in Chart School at StockCharts. But a one time reading is not enough to be able to do the kind of detailed analysis you are doing.. I hope this work proves to be profitable for you. That seems likely. I will go back and study how to work with psar. Thanks! -ira

Yes, I certainly feel I benefit by studying the charts, and the TA indicators- It has become a habit that I enjoy. And, it has saved my account plenty of dollars during periods of larger market declines. Just by understanding and identifying Trend with some moving averages keeps you on the right side of where things are going.
It is also useful to challenge one's assumptions- about TA, a trade, markets etc. As you likely are aware- we develop a certainty Bias- seeing what we believe as True , and disregarding other elements. TA is just a tool, and back testing that tool can challenge my own preconceived Bias as to what is really effective.
You are correct in that in a 2nd reading , paired with an actual series of positions that one actually has, will bring a better comprehension of what one may elect to rely on- I'd say to keep it as simple as possible- Price action over a few moving averages to define trend and momentum is all one really needs-But Most importantly, what is the bigger picture?- How are the markets performing? How is that sector performing-?
Sector & index strength accounts for the majority of a stocks movements.
If one holds a stock-or a themed or sector ETF, is that stock a sector or industry group leader or laggard? The bigger picture momentum is what the majority of stocks- and industry groups respond to- So studying the Big picture, and then drilling down into Sectors, then industry groups, really is a good starting point of having some confidence in making an investment decision- Certainly watching what scrolls across CNBC makes one want to react- as a trade- but is it a good investment?

TA indicators are typically lagging- They can be useful as they can confirm the strength of a trend, or divergences in the price action.
Under the stockcharts Chart Attributes- I like the Elder Impulse System for the price bars- which interprets price action with a momentum indicator to generate Green, Blue, Red bars-
A lot of people rely on Volume- I gave up trying to interpret volume as a necessary ingredient to make a trade-
2 or 3 indicators- should be all one needs- along with some moving averages- Perhaps an RSI, MACD or PPO, I have just added the Accum/Distribution to see how well it confirms buying or selling momentum.

An Investor may prefer to use a weekly chart as opposed to a daily chart- Gives one the wider view of the Forest rather than focusing on the Trees-
Referencing a weekly chart is smart even if one prefers the Daily chart.

While the Nas market opened up higher earlier today, and -as an example- PLTR was up +11% at that time, Markets are presently weakening- PLTR is now up just +4%- Not bad follow through . Let's hope the Government can get their act together and get economic stimulus and vaccinations in place asap
Good Luck with your Study!

PS - ON PSAR- While I find Psar instructive, in the Van accounts I am presently trying to give price a bit wider stop room- I had noticed that by lagging behind the active psar by 1 prior day's values, it reduced the whipsaw signals, and allowed a stop to be held just below a basing action-
It's a useful tool to trail a relatively progressive tight stop, but perhaps simply using the wider 21 ema would work out just as well. However, If one jumps in and out of a trade based on a 1 day volatile price bar, having a somewhat mechanical signal such as psar may be beneficial. If Psar gets stopped out and one has to chase and take a reentry at +5 or +6% higher price moves, that is difficult to chase and reenter on multiple whipsaws, particularly if the overall price was still in a decent uptrend-
If one used PSAR for the PLTR trade, the psar stop @ $24 would have executed near the $22 gap down open. Notice that price had hit a high above $32 3 days earlier- Consider if one had rolled the stop out to be at the 21 ema, the stop would have executed @ $25.00 12-28 for a +10% higher net gain on the trade. One certain sign to consider is to be out of a position when price declines and crosses below the slower ema- potentially rolling over and getting ready to turn into a downtrend.

[sd]

1-25-2021
Markets got choppy and lost ground from the morning session- The big move in GME on a short covering raid was a big bit of Noise today-
Seeing sector swings today, as my materials positions all saw declines- Uncertain as to why that would occur .
Here's an interesting chart I had annotated over the weekend as I decided where I would adjust a bit wider stops.
The XLB Materials had just broken out of a long 8 week basing period- where I had taken an entry on the breakout.
I marked the chart with the "support" line- the top of the recent base, and then the bottom of the gap range- I did not use psar for a trailing stop on this move - instead- I felt that the base- once broken out- may see a retest and gap fill- a common TA perception, and I set my $72.50 stop to just cover my cost of entry- Today, Price pulled back to $72.69 , yet Closed back where it had opened- Ideally this satisfies the Gap fill on market weakness. Interestingly, the AD line turned higher on today's move despite the lower price penetration-
I also saw similar weakness on the FCX, GUNR positions- I was also forced to set wider stops on both of those positions due to my recent reentries into those funds.
Today's bearish red bar that opened higher, pushed lower, and closed near the open may have found that buying occurred as it got back to the prior support level- This Doji bar - long tail down, equal open and Close -suggests that sellers and buyers found balance in the support gap range. Technically, I could have lowered the stop-loss down to the bottom of the recent base- about $70.00, and greatly increased the probability that my stop would not be executed. Lowering my stop to this level would not be a major % loss, as that had been where it was on my original entry. However, Price has broken out from that base, and my expectation is that this trade should validate the breakout by not returning back into the base. Therefore, I set my stop marginally above my Cost of Entry- essentially becoming a 0% gain/loss .
I'd rather have a scratch trade than allow a winning trade become a losing trade- Price has moved far enough higher in this trade following the breakout to warrant this action.


According to the PSAR, I should have Sold my XLB position with a stop @ $75.00- That would have netted about a 3% gain on that recent position.
Just for Study, PSAR signals over a 3 month period- (Not my trades)
Splitting the stops -50 @ $72.50, 50 @ $70.00 just under the prior range-

[sd]

1-26-2021
Futures now up slightly- Holding a fairly sizable position (143 shares) in AIA- Asia large caps- for 2 weeks it has been trending well- above my entry $90.55. Asian mkts down -2% this am, so I will split the trailing stops . I will split the position with 2 stops- each of which will be above my entry cost. Yesterday's Closing price was +11% above my Entry cost,
The Psar value below yesterday's closing price of $100.48 is $96.39 ; midway between the 5 & 21 ema. The 1 day lagging psar is $95.55
The 21 ema is $93.07
Stop Assessment - AIA broke out of a 3 week base 12-24 to start a strong trending move- Notice that this breakout could have been anticipated by the A/D line divergence-during mid December- While price was moving sideways around the flat 5 ema, the 21 (red line) came close to merging with the 5 ema.
During this sideways price action, the stock was being slowly accumulated ( bought) during this period as is shown by the rising A/D line.
Accumulation/Distribution line. The Price "breakout" - was indicated by price exceeding the top of the recent base-
While psar generated an early BUY, it was not until the 3rd day that Price actually Closed above the top of the recent base- and exceeded those upper psar values- That higher Close would have been the safer early entry. (I entered a week later).I looked to diversify my positions and entered while this was uptrending.
Now, I will split the stops, with one position at the 21 ema and a 2nd position at the 1 day lag psar value-. If the stops were executed today at the stop prices, the Psar stop would net +5% ($321.00) and the 21 ema would net +2.7% (173.00) - Typically would execute at lower prices.


aS PART OF DIVERSIFYING MY HOLDINGS, I have a recent position on global -ex US small caps. While price is trending higher , the A/D line is not participating- PPO indicator is steady and above the 0 line, and stoch-rsi above the 0.5 line-
I would prefer to see all 3 indicators confirming price trending higher.

The A/D is indicating a Divergence with the higher Price Action- Let's see which prevails in the days and weeks ahead.


Had $1,000 of Free cash in the IB account-CRSP sold $180 area. Took a small 16 share spec position on this although it is up +20% in 2 earlier days from breaking out of the base. African company trying to become the Amazon of e-commerce
finance.yahoo.com/news/jumia-africas-answer-amazon-alibaba-165546968.html


I had some freed cash in the Van IRA- I added to the 100 share +48 Moon position in that account as a add to something that has positive momentum. I also hold 150 Moon in the IB account. I also hold 100 HTEC -part of global exposure-healthcare in the Van Roth- but purchased 26 shares for the Van IRA account-

The decision to add to MOON is on the short term momentum and I already have a solid profit margin on the position .
I used the PERF chart to compare the short term performance of Moon, KOMP,ARKK,ARKW and Moon is presently trending well, while the Ark and KOMP are relatively basing. This is one of the most useful features in Stockcharts.

MOON would appear to be holding a broad Mix of innovation themes across a wide spectrum- similar to ARKK that holds a mix of companies in it's other funds.
www.direxion.com/product/moonshot-innovators-etf
Short term momentum appears to be favoring MOON -presently trending .


IT'S FUN UNTIL YOU LOSE!
I had a winning trade previously on FCX the global Copper and Gold miner , and decided to reenter last week- Again , the thinking is that this would continue to go much higher based on a Global commodities surge into 2021. Held this into Earnings today, and hadn't reacted to the softness seen yesterday- In Hindsight, I should have set a tight stop under the Low of that Red Bar made yesterday as it broke the 21 ema. I was overconfident on the necessity of the commodities would automatically do well into this global recovery.
So, instead of having a $3.00 loss on the trade -10% , I am holding 150 shares looking for an oversold bounce today- and a potentially much larger loss. In retrospect, the violation of the 21 ema should have been acted on- It does not matter that I had aprior winning trade in FCX- what matters is I did not take control of this position with an upgraded stop.

All is not dire- PLUG up +12% MIDday-breaking higher . SPCE Up +20% 2 WELL EXECUTED TRADES BASED ON THE CHART


PLUG-APPEARS TO BE BREAKING OUT TO A NEW HIGH-
4 HR CHART- 2 BARS/DAY

cRAZY ACTION IN GME! I'm not chasing that ! A short covering play going on this week From $20 to $148.00 !
tHIS IS ONE OF THOSE CRAZY market moves when Buyers jump in en mass to push a stock with a heavy short interest in it - The shorts have to Buy the stock at the higher price at a loss to cover their short positions. The Higher the stock price goes- the greater the Loss for anyone trying to hold a short position- Consider if you had borrowed shares to short under $22.00, and you had failed to Buy the shares back when it jumped to $44.- a 100% loss! and now it's up to $148!- This trade will collapse and there will be a lot of momentum players that made a lot of money -and those that will lose a lot. Shorts will learn to cover their losses early-



EOD- Mostly red in the accounts- with only a few performers in the Green- SPCE +16%; Plug +11%, MOON + 4%.
Positions in the Red- FCX -7% was a major concern as it is a recent reentry and it undermined my thinking that nat resources are a sure bet to benefit from the recovery- so this extends beyond the FCX position to some of the other materials XLB, resources GUNR-

Last week I had also bought 3 Spacs that Chamath is a co-founder of - He has others already in the market- I saw him in an interview and was impressed, so I bought 3 of his SPACs @ $1,000.00 invested in each- No Stops-just pure speculation . IPOD;IPOE;IPOF....
@ EOD, account a bit lower, and stops all upgraded- Some I had not moved for a week- but getting a bit more defensive

[sd]

1-27-2021
Futures down - seasonally, we've had the run up in Jan, and perhaps the easy wide gains have been baked in and we are turning a corner here as we go into earnings. High expectations were set . An example of that is PLUG which had gone higher yesterday is down -$9 this am- and my position sold at the open. sold @ $63.66
time to review the remaining positions..
A lot of stops being executed this am-!
Often the 1st 30 minutes of market action is not where the market ends up- Significant gaps down lower at the open on many positions. Even the Asian markets are dropping, and I cannot get access back into Vanguard after being logged in earlier. Servers being overloaded I expect.
Ark Funds are not immune to the selling, and opening below the fast ema- some of my positions stops were hit in those funds.
Still unable to access Vanguard @10:30 am- servers overloaded.
An example is 2 semi stocks that beat earnings yesterday AMD, TXN but both are down -5% today despite the earnings beat.

Discussion on CNBC is on the hyped short covering and buying of GME and other heavily shorted stocks- William Galvin- regulator is concerned this could add instability to the larger marketplace- Chalmath Palihapitiym went Bravo- to The retail traders for forcing the Hedge funds to cover their short positions- The argument being that retail traders are grouping together through social media to act en masse to go opposite the institutional funds shorting some stocks- When Hedge funds are allowed to short 130% of the shares available- and with Margin, they then have to cover and at a significant loss, so they may then have to Sell other positions...
Why should GME trading undermine the rest of the markets? Possibly this has added to the volatility seen, but perhaps we have simply reached a peak of the recent upside momentum, sentiment too high, and we're shaking out some of the market's enthusiasm for all things EV,ESG,Biotech,
Mid day markets have reduced the initial losses by 1/2- but still in the Red- I have over 20 executions of stops hit this Am.
Still holding ARKQ in both accounts, PRNT , IZRL,ARKW but sold out of ARKK, ARKG- locked in some gains on those.
I've taken a number of losses- particularly on recent positions just initiated. As I review the charts, I see that I had higher stops on many positions, but price opened with a gap down below my stops- And, as I took the time to mark up my chart lists with today's executions, I noticed that many of those positions had already shown some price weakness, had psar sell signals for a number of days, but I was trying to give price some wiggle room.
The net goal of using stops is two-fold- Limit & control Risk on the downside; and lock in some profits on the upside on weakness-
The assumption is to reenter the position if it has merit- ideally at a lower price from where it was originally purchased- or at a higher price if the uptrend resumes-
I tried that with PLUG- and it was up nicely yesterday, but came back with a low open today and executed my stop for a small loss- below my entry. This kind of volatility is a wake up call, both on what I am invested in , and how effective applied is a stop-loss approach.
As I marked up some of the charts- it struck me that the dual split stops I started to initiate would have served well on some of these positions that would have seen a partial sell at higher prices several days ago- net a larger gain- and today would have had the wider stop executed.
I applied that approach with the AIA position, with one stop at the fast ema, and another lower-
I am doing the same momentum stop approach with some winning positions - SPCE, and MOON- both of which are up nicely today.
Selling 125 SPCE @ $51 raised stop- on it's upside momentum- leaving 25 shares w/lower stp . The high momentum move weakening intraday- locking in some gains here to offset some of the losses taken today. Holding 25 shares, I will put in a market sell order for tomorrow on the possibility that this will see a gap higher opening- or decline lower. I wish I had been following this higher run this am and could have sold into the higher price range. I am also giving more consideration to the split stop with the 5 ema -when appropriate to be employed as the stop- or higher as done with this momentum move-



back into the Vanguard account

[ira85]

Late January. Goal to improve technical analysis skills. Bought 100 shares AERI 01-20-21 @ 15.83. Took a risky bottom fishing strategy in selecting this as a buy. AERI was in a long term, well established price decline. Though the primary trend was down, for the Oct to Jan time frame things were looking up. Price went from $9 to $15 in those 3 months. The 50 MA turned up and crossed the 200 MA. Volume improved some. AERI closed today (1-27-21) @ 18.19, a gain of 13% in one week. It went up nicely for 5 straight days then sideways for 2 days. Today it looked like it might finish on the low for the day as the quick MA dipped below the slower MA. But it closed up a few cents at the end.

1-20-21 bought 50 shares of ARKQ @ 90.19 and 50 shares of PLTR @ 26.04. Sold the ARKQ today.

ARKQ had some erratic price action. There were 4 gap up opening prices in this ten day period and one gap down on the last day. The significance of the gap down today seemed to be mitigated by the fact it opened at 89 and ARKQ had bounced off of 89 four times in the past 10 days. But then price went from $94 to 89.5 the last three days. ARKQ seemed to lose steam as the week went on. I was wary of the volatility and price action at the end of the week and sold my position late in the day today @90.22. I had held ARKQ only 7 days, since 1-20-21. My position had a loss of 3 cents a share. I saw it sinking this afternoon and thought that letting it keep falling into negative territory would be wrong. But the final action today wasn't so bad. Price bounced off of support at 89. It didn't close on the low for the day. The gap down open today was immediately met by buying and was quickly filled. Maybe I was too quick to sell.

Last thing. I had a stop limit sell order today on VXUS, activation 61.13, price 61.13. It expired end of day. I'll confess, this was the first time I've ever tried to place a stop loss order. We've talked mostly about factors to consider in deciding when and at what price to place a stop. But I need to get proficient with the mechanics. I think I did it correctly today, but not certain. I guess with the way it works, I'll get another chance to do it Thursday. - ira

[sd]

Bought 100 shares AERI 01-20-21 @ 15.83. Took a risky bottom fishing strategy in selecting this as a buy. AERI was in a long term, well established price decline. Though the primary trend was down, for the Oct to Jan time frame things were looking up. Price went from $9 to $15 in those 3 months. The 50 MA turned up and crossed the 200 MA. Volume improved some. AERI closed today (1-27-21) @ 18.19, a gain of 13% in one week. It went up nicely for 5 straight days then sideways for 2 days. Today it looked like it might finish on the low for the day as the quick MA dipped below the slower MA. But it closed up a few cents at the end.
AERI Has worked out very nicely- as a trade-or is it a possible investment based on some information on the prospects of the company?
If it is a trade- you could sell @ market @ the Open outright- but that negates the chance for it to go potentially higher-
You could split the position with 2 stops-both designed to potentially allow the price to move yet higher today- one Stop under yesterdays Low and another
stop at the 5 ema $17.75 & $17.50 or lower if you want to give price room to possible be able to dip down-on volatility. If it is a position you think will become an investment-or could go much higher, -You could give it a much wider stop, lesser profits, but cover your entry cost- Nice position to be in !

PLTR showing strength in a down market! after breaking out of the base this week, it Closed up despite a sell-off in the markets.
PLTR may also benefit from the social crowd followers- If there is a fair amount of short interest on PLTR, the Reddit crowd may jump into it-
The institutional short sellers on GME, BBY and a few others are getting their positions swamped by Buyers- This is a new territory-and force at work in the market place. Retail traders grouping together on social media to act in concert and go against the big institutions...


ARKQ- TSLA reported last night and "disappointed" on production- I think this will adversely affect ARKQ-and ARKW-and ARKK- as each of those funds has a significant TSLA position. My ARKK, ARKG sold yesterday, and today I will tighten stops but not do an outright sell. As can be noted on the daily chart and also this 4 hr chart- Price drops below the fast ema have occurred periodically, over the past 3 months, but that has not led to a follow through to a lower downside, or the beginning of a downtrend- It's a trade-off to allow price some flexibility to pause , decline slightly, in exchange for the opportunity for it to possibly continue the uptrend yet higher. My most recent reentries in ARKQ -after having been stopped out on the earlier pullbacks , is in the mid $76.00 in both accounts.
The Daily chart price action did generate a psar sell- but i'll set a stop-loss under the price lows for one position, and a bit lower -at the 4 hr psar for the other position-The goal is to allow Price to go higher- but if it does go lower, I will capture a good % of the net gain. As I had reviewed some of my ARKK trades after the Mar sell-off- I often got shook out at the very lows and then had to chase higher- Ideally, I would have been Buying the pullbacks at those times, as opposed to selling . I found in practice in the IB account, the tight stop-loss approach indeed works- but then you have to be willing to repurchase at a higher price from where you get stopped out- It cuts a trade on price weakness, and automatically culls out the losing trade- and lets you chase the winner- albeit at a higher cost- Stops instead will be $88.50, $87.00


VXUS- weakened yesterday-as did all of my Asian positions- The question is whether this will be a 1 day occurrence, or decline further-
I split my AIA position- 1/2 was hit- locked in a gain- INDA position sold for a loss. The pullback may become a buying opportunity to add back at lower prices- Shanghai mkts down -2% so it appears the weakness in EM markets continues lower
One thing to Note is reacting at the Open is based on pent up pre market demand- By 10 am price direction should be resolving.
EOD- Markets broadly rallied - Closing up about 1%- Worth noting is AAPL closed lower after posting it's largest gain ever- somewhat mixed guidance going forward- I think my remaining AIA position sold , ,I sold CLNE on weakness, VWO sold.
ARKQ didn't go lower today, so holding the positions- Yesterday's volatility and overall market weakness was not erased by today's tepid market action- Perhaps it also was the cause of the global markets weakness- If the US is having market troubles, it affects the global mkts.
I only made I new trade today-just prior to the CLOSE- using unsettled funds- WBA- Walgreens- had moved higher yesterday out of a shallow base- Bought it as a possible beneficiary of a future vaccine distributor vs CVS.

[sd]

1-28-2021
Just saw that PLTR is also a short squeeze play ongoing- according to CNBC and SPCE.
Markets trying to recover today- Still a lot of talk about regulation in GME type of Reddit pile on - some of the brokerages are taking action and halting Options play in these hyped stocks- and no margin plays. SPCE is also a heavily shorted stock- still holding 25 shares -didn't sell at today's open, want to see where it may go today. I didn't realize there was a big short position against SPCE- Thought it was up on the successful recent launches and Cathy Wood saying that ARK will start a space ETF.
The ARKQ position with tightened stops did not execute at the open. That is potentially a good sign- TSLA had a -5% Gap down -($45.00) and that will weigh on the ARKQ shares.

Yesterday's sell-off in the indexes resulted in a lot of my stops executing- some locked in gains- some locked in Losses- and the majority of the positions that did not hit stops went lower in value. This has resulted in a 60%+ Cash position-down from a 100% invested. The net toll as of yesterdays Close appeared to be an account decline of -2.5% this week- but this is Thursday. Perhaps the week will finish off on a higher note.
I marked up a number of the trades that stopped out yesterday, and will post a few here- FCX is a losing position that I held out on - and decided to see if it would find support at the top of the prior base- it penetrated into the base range, but closed higher. It has bounced a bit higher today, and potentially will not go back down that low again. I get that I made an entry at the High range, no issue there . My mistake was ignoring the blue bars drop below psar, followed by the Red bar Close at the 21 ema- I should have set a stop at that Red bar low- $28 and taken the smaller loss.


XLB I ALLOWED A WINNER TO TURN INTO A LOSER
XLB- is the materials ETF- holds commodities- and just like the FCX position- I allowed my belief- in the global need for commodities in this upcoming recovery- to allow a perfect breakout entry - seeing price move up over +5%, then weaken and drop below the fast ema, below psar, and then -below the 21 ema! I could have set the stop at the 21 ema and been in positive territory- but I failed to do so -overly confident about how this trade held essential commodiites... Like FCX, it dropped back into the prior base range- but I finally had set a stop- Losing $ 80.00 vs making at least an easy +$200.00 on a stop at the 21 ema.

[sd]

1-28-2021

With the news ongoing about GME and Hedge funds in trouble due to having cover their shorts- It turns out that a handful of stocks are on the potential list of holding large short positions which can become targets of Activist Buyers forcing the Hedge funds to cover part of their shorts and thus pushing prices higher- PLTR is one name thaqt has been included on the lists of being targeted by the institutional short players- Today, TDAmeritrade, IBrokers, Robinhood, and some other trading firms put in new restrictions reducing the ability of those to borrow or leverage long positions in some of these long plays to pressure shorts and force price higher.
Thomas Petterfy of Interactive Brokers and the TD Ameritrade Operations CEO- both on CNBC justifying why they limited the trading of these stocks-
Petterfy explained he is protecting the traders, and also the Clearing houses that cannot cover their losses because they supplied the shares that have so many options pushing the long side- The question should be asked how the Institutional shorts could borrow more than 130% of the shares available to begin with. This is changing the rules of the game in the middle to protect the institutional hedge funds shorting the stock.


That may explain the drop in PLTR price today according to this article:
www.fool.com/investing/2021/01/28/why-palantir-stock-just-crashed/

[ira85]

What to do with PLTR now that we see the recent run up in price is almost certainly due to the short squeeze being pressed by social media players. Two other heavily shorted stocks today were GME and AMC. I plotted all three companies on a chart of today's action. PLTR was almost flat while GME and AMC were all over the page, especially in the morning. All three ended the day down. PLTR -10% and the other two down about 30%.

I found an article about past short squeezes and how the companies fared after the dust settled. Tilray was squeezed in 2018. There was a window of time from August to September when it went up. It shot up to 300 and immediately dropped like a rock to 165. It continued down through all of 2019. It's been under $10 most of the time since March 2020. Two-year returns from peak: -92.7%. It would have been hard to make money on the Tilray squeeze. You had to be in and out of that action very early. www.benzinga.com/general/education/21/01/19352115/how-the-gamestop-pop-compares-to-tilray-volkswagen-other-historical-short-squeezes

From what I see with GME today and 3 years ago it seems I would hope to sell into strength. But that opportunity might not arise. If the price is moving quickly down, I'll sell quickly. This reminds me of the analogy to yelling Fire” in a crowded theater. Except this time people may be yelling “Sell.” Am I over reacting? Perhaps. Tesla is heavily shorted but hasn't gone through beating like GME is. GME and AMC face possible bankruptcy and are limping along. PLTR is a viable company with a bright future. Like Tesla it's being shorted due to high valuation not well supported by income and profits. But so what if Tesla and PLTR are not going broke. The shorts may be right and I don't want to stay on the wrong side of a big correction. I'll re-read SD's review of PLRA and look again at the charts in the morning. -ira

[sd]

1-29-2021
Futures substantially lower pre-market- Perhaps this is the beginnings of the long awaited rotation/correction ?
I saw yesterday pm that Robinhood has relented and will allow their traders to Buy highly shorted stocks- It appears that Robinhood had to get additional funding/financing in order to deliver their trades to the clearing house. The danger here is is not to the traders, some will win and sell into the gains- and others will lose- but it is the leveraged use of options and more stock being traded than exists - If anything requires regulation, that would seem to be a starting point- Plus allowing institutional funds to be "protected" from restricting sales to retail buyers is simply wrong- I saw an interview with Kevin Oleary and a past SEC regulator on CNBC this am -with the regulator saying this is dangerous for our system and it's not investing- it's pure gambling- and Oleary vehemently taking the other side- saying people have every right to speculate with their own funds. Joe Kernan pointed out that in the late 1980s, the Attorney general in Mass tried to pass a regulation to prevent people from investing in a purely speculative company- AAPL. Apparently the Clearing houses raised their requirements to Robinhood, as Robinhood was allowing traders margin funding to Buy much more than they had in their personal accounts, and the potential Losses could be exponential.
Until this week, I never really considered the balance of having institutions shorting a stock- and the positive effect that short covering can have on price momentum to the upside- Apparently RKT mortgage company is another recent IPO that has a fair % of shorts against it.
"Short Interest" www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/06/shortedstock.asp#:~:text=For%20general%20shorting%20information%20about,where%20the%20company%20is%20listed.
Market Beat's short interest list : www.marketbeat.com/short-interest/ as of 1-15-21
How to use this information to one's advantage is the question- PLTR is only listed as having 9.7% short interest-This does not seem excessively high. Snap was 7% at that time-
I personally am restricted in taking any Short trades as my accounts are in retirement accounts and not allowed- Also- Shorting can be exponentially dangerous as you can lose more than 100% of your money- and be on the hook for many xxx what you put in.


Elon Musk going Long Bitcoin- Perhaps my $300 Riot position will go higher!

WWW.Finviz.com is a site where one can get a lot of the statistics fundamental ratios etc as well as short interest- Perhaps one should ask what a high short interest could mean for a stock someone is interested in. SPCE had a 27% short float.




I hold 3 of Chamaths Spacs- small positions under $1k each. IPOD, IPOE,IPOF
I believe SPCE was also brought out as a Spac and he was involved- Still holding 25 SPCE this am with a stop @$140
IPOE is up +19% today- Short covering?

Market weakness- adding a small Hedge position- already own SLV.-adding to the SLV position.

[sd]

1.29.2021
The market selling continues- feels like it has "Correction" all over it- Gains in the indexes for 2021 have now been erased, with the SPY, QQQ, and DIA all now negative on the year. This means that the paper gains for the index investor that watched the markets climb for the 1st 3 weeks in Jan, now saw those gains erased in week 4.
I put Stops under the 3 spacs, still holding CNBS,WBA,RIOT,SLV,TSM at a loss-setting a stop at today's low. IZRL,JMIA,- A whalloping % now in cash, and most losses locked in.
Markets are all down -2% + and Options expiration today- A very confusing week .
I still hold 1 share of most of my prior positions- I use that 1 share position to easily see what it is doing on the trading platform.
Well, we've had a large run up in 2020- and it would appear that the EASY money is already made- Point of this thread is to see whether my "active management" approach in 2021 will outperform - either by net higher Gains -or reduced RISK -or Both. I have to admit, I've taken a few losses this week because I did not adhere to my stop-loss approach on every position . Something i am slightly regretting right now, but this is a learning forum ., and I'm not infallible.
Since I am comparing the index performance from Jan 4 2021 as a benchmark- The QQQ's represent the Tech Sector- SPY represents the S&P 500 large Caps
Markets appear to be in Correction mode- despite some companies with "Blowout earnings" -AAPL, MSFT, FB

TIME TO DO THE WEEKLY/MONTHLY YTD UPDATE-
As I review the Major indexes- The Tech sector had a good 3 weeks, but gave it All back this week - QQQ's Down barely for 2021- but now in negative territory


The SPY - S&P 500
sIMILARLY SPY also ran higher 3 weeks into 2021- had closed then up over +2%, but then declined sharply in Week 4 to become what would become a Losing investment.


This has been a "losing Week" compared to the highs of last week- but that was only transitory -on paper- gains- If i cannot take it to the grocery store and buy food , it's just gains on paper. Put those reports of paper gains in a fireplace and perhaps they can make you warm.\?
This has been a losing week, with a considerable number of positions stopping out, or simply declining- across the board- This is not all due to the hype over the GME Reddit traders busting the Short Fund wide open- but this is a simultaneous culmination of a market topping- and so i'm preparing to see prices decline further, and a settling out of my remaining positions .


It's been a Losing week- The Van combined account is $227,553.00
Present Cash position Van IRA $146,636.-- Van Roth $62,801.00 combined cash = $209,437.00
IB $21,631 Cash $15,150.00
Combined Acct = $247,203.00. Present value 1.29.21

From last week:
To keep track of performance- I think the End of each week is the best way to determine-the account trend-
1-01-2021 starting balance $214,037.00
1-8 Close - Van $229,967.00
1-15 Close - Van $227,131.00

1-22 close vAN $234,239 (+9% Van gain since 1-01-21)

IB $21,715 with a number of new positions- IZRL,PRNT,QLD,TSM,MOON,PLUG

This week 1-29 Comparisom
The Van acct closed lower than the prior week $ 234,239 - 227,553.00 = a Loss of - $6,686.00 or - 2.8%

From the starting balance of 2021 $214,037 vs $227,553 = + $13,516.00 or a net gain of +6.3% in the VAN IRA.

The IB ACCT $21,642.00 = 0% gain from the start of the year.


Both presently exceed the index returns for 2021