SD- 2021- ACTIVE MANAGEMENT FOR GREATER SUCCESS IN 2021

[ira85]

Wow!! You retired at exactly the right time concerning the virus!!

My recent changes.

Bought 50 shares ARKQ on 1-20-21 @ 90.20
Sold 50 shares ARKQ on 1-27-21 @ 90.22 zero loss/gain
Bought 50 shares PLTR on 1-20-21 @ 26.05
Sold 50 shares PLTR on 1-29-21 @ 35.26 + 35.4%
Bought 100 shares AERI on 1-20-21 @ 15.83
Sold 100 shares AERI on 1-29-21 @ 16.98 + 7.3%
Bought 400 shares VXUS 1-21-21 @ 63.15
Sold 400 shares VXUS 1-29-21 @ 60.31 - 4.5%
Bought 200 shares RSP on 2-02-21 @ 130.41
Bought 70 shares SPY on 2-02-21 @ 382.92
Bought 150 shares QQQJ on 2-03-21 @ 32.59

PLTR got bid up in the short squeeze with GameStop. Just a lucky break I happened to have some as that played out.

Current holdings RSP, QQQJ, and SPY. At first I was planning to just buy one big position of SPY. SPY would be proxy for the whole market. Then it hit me that I should buy one of the SPY alternatives and give myself a chance to outperform. I knew about the equal-weighted alternative. So I bought SPY and RSP. Then I discovered QQQJ another alternative to Spy. I plan to use SPY to hold funds while I try to find attractive ETF's. I'll hold on to QQQJ and use it as a primary holding for the tech sector. I'll monitor RSP and see how it does. I think QQQJ will out perform RSP most of the time. Yes, SPY and RSP are not diversified. I was thinking of it as being a proxy for the market. But the total world market ETF would be a better diversifier.

I want to get away from buying individual company stocks. Too much risk. And too labor intensive. I can't imagine how SD keeps up with 70+ holdings! I am incredibly slow in everything I do. I would need more than 40 hours a week to adjust stops, track buy and sell signals, etc for all those positions. Surely there must be a way to shrink that number from 70 to less than 20 and not seriously damage performance.

I'm considering turning my Roth account over to my advisor. That would free up time, but I'd miss the participation in the market. My problem solving and judgment used to be a lot better. Having the advisor manage the account would probably be safer for the account. I think I spend too much time on the computer working on the IRA and market in general. Quitting would leave a big hole, at least for a while. I'll kick it around a little longer. My Dad used to spend his days watching Judge Judy, The Price Is Right, and Nancy Grace, true crime stuff. I don't want to fall into that trap. I probably spent 3-4 hours typing this post. Agonizingly slow. -ira

[sd]

Hey IRA,
All in all, you did well in your trading in 2021!
I think getting some Global exposure would be a plus-
I think engagement in the market is mentally stimulating, but you have to respect your concerns - and evaluate the time, the possible emotional
toll of having serious monies on the line. No point in adding stressors at this point in your life!
Perhaps turning over the majority of your Roth to your advisor would be prudent- but perhaps keep a smaller portion- $10k ? that allows you to still participate, and hold a mix of investment funds, just smaller in size, thus keeping you engaged-without an undue amount of Risk to your portfolio net value.
It's unfortunate that some tasks are now so demanding of you. I know that must be very frustrating, and hope that you have effective medications slowing the progression of what must be overwhelming physically and emotionally. I hope you and your wife are able to keep up your spirits in the face of this challenge Life has thrown at the two of you.

You are very correct- I have way too many positions now to properly manage-and some very speculative-Too much CNBC time. The past 6 weeks being newly retired , is a learning process. ; I have had plenty of time on my hands (too much) at the computer as the weather has been cold and wet and we're doing the hermit isolation mode here- As we get through Feb in NC, the weather will improve-and we'll spend most of our time outside in the yard- gardening and ideally a lot of time fishing. So, I will have to transition the portfolio to the back burner....Actually got to spend yesterday outside constructing an elevated raised bed for herbs- but rain again today.
Getting back to the stocks and Funds- A core portfolio of ETF funds with a few stocks - about 20 positions -would be quite manageable- Right now I went overboard, and -with the present upside surge in market momentum- very wide on the risk/speculative side of things- More trading oriented than investing focused. - I'm believing that the stimulus package will again give the markets reason to go higher still and last week's weakness is the relative swing low for the time being. As i've had a few 100% gains in some individual stock trades, that has prompted my expansion into more stock positions in the near term- but most are relatively small positions. This might be the Las Vegas syndrome- win a little and bet bigger- Eventually the HOUSE wins we all know.

As for the mechanics of managing the positions- I have all positions entered in a stockcharts list- I annotate each chart with my entry cost. That annotation process is the most time consuming procedure. 2-3 minutes. I still need to update the spreadsheet though-
I have a 34" monitor with split screens ,connected to my laptop; Saves from flipping back and forth - so it's easy to bring up the order page on one 1/2, and the chart on the other side, scroll through the charts one at a time and adjust the stop on the order page -if necessary- If price is trending well, with green bars rising above the fast ema, I may not adjust the stop. Goal is to protect the entry cost with a raised stop asap when it looks like price has moved up enough- I'll toggle between a daily chart and typically a 4 hr chart. It usually only takes a quick glance at the chart to determine if an action is warranted, and then adjust the stop order. I'll update stops today (Sunday) to set the tone for next week's start.
My primary tool once the markets are opened is to click on the SUMMARY page in stockcharts- It gives me a real time view of where Price has opened compared to the prior day's price- If it's a big green bar , no worries- Nothing needs to be done but I may want to check the chart for a big gap away move to sell a portion into... If it's a red bar- that means it's price is below the prior day- and possibly a concern to act on.
It then seems that about 10 am the market's real direction may unfold-

[sd]

2-7-21
A stockcharts subscription is essential imo.
Once stocks are in a Chartlist, you can select View List AS - and choose Summary from the drop downs.
Then,
the Period box on the left side of the page and use the pulldown menu to select from intraday performance to Daily, weekly, Monthly, YTD, one year .I use the INTRADAY setting when the market opens, and it gives me an immediate overview of all of my positions.
In the screenshots below, I have several symbols shown that I am tracking, but do not have any positions in - GME and PLTR
The SCTR rating ranges from 1-100, with higher momentum names having high numbers. I am providing examples from the top and the bottom of the present stocks I have on a daily chart list. You can have up to 500 stocks on each list. Multiple charts-different time frame charts show as duplicate entries
The 1st charts reflect the performance of Friday vs the prior day. This is an easy way to glimpse the performance as the day is proceeding.
I do not have a GME OR PLTR position- the top performer that day in the list But do own most of the others...
I also own most of those in the RED



The ONE WEEK Chart summary:



One should notice that the Friday Intraday GME position was the market leader at that time
Notice the real story is better seen on the one week performance, with GME the biggest Loser, Down -80% !!!

[sd]

2-7-21 Stops all adjusted- Rooting for the Old Guy that got put out to Pasture by the Patriots AGE Discrimination at work in the NFL. !.
Go BRADY!

EDIT - Tampa Bay and Brady get the win!


I heard a profound quote moments ago during the Game- "RISK is the Price you pay for OPPORTUNITY"
Besides being a Sports truism, it also applies to Trading and Investing.

Considering the RISK is the primary element in Investing- or Trading- Whereas it is easier to focus on the potential for Gain- Part of our psychology.

[sd]

2-8-21 Futures up modestly
Speculation that TSLA or MUSK involved in Crypto currency 1.5 Billion is in the SEC filing. - His tweet "Doge" earlier in the week under question. About 7% of the TSLA $$$$ TSLA up SLIGHTLY- I haven't owned TSLA for quite a while --I took an entry on last Monday's move higher- willing to use the Jan sell-off low as a low 5% Risk trade-
The News did not send TSLA shares massively higher- up just 1.3% mid day.

Bitcoin almost back to $40,000.00,
Hyundai and Kia denying they are working with AAPL on an Apple car.
Stops updated- ....$VIX 21.25 up slightly.
CLNE has gone up +50% this week since I got impatient and sold it. Over $15 now. I had a nice gain on it from my original position, but it got choppy , stalled, and I got impatient-
Amazon is fighting an effort to Unionize warehouse essential workers. In Alabama.

Ira's prospering: on his investing last week.
"Bought 200 shares RSP on 2-02-21 @ 130.41
Bought 70 shares SPY on 2-02-21 @ 382.92
Bought 150 shares QQQJ on 2-03-21 @ 32.59"

Performance - Q's leading , followed by the Equal weight


AHH, the pleasures of Home ownership- Plumbing - my nemesis- Went to change out the sediment filter- a simple 1 minute process- turned into
the typical plumbing project- Filter bleed valve would not reseat, had to buy a brand new Filter housing- 1st one I bought had broken parts -sealed in the box. Returned it and the HDWR didn't have another- Trip to Lowes, new filter- success! Plumbing is almost always 3 trips !

An impressive day- Indexes all at all time highs , as is my account- Had a 1 day gain over 2.25% across the entire Van portfolio!
My $300 RIOT position gained +40% today- LOL! Clne -up +37% (not a position any longer) Schedule the flogging for selling early !
over 18 positions up from + 3% - 7.68 - just amazing-
MOON + 7.68, CNBS + 7.06; PRNT + 6.59; FCG +5.68;MOS 5.21 YOLO +4.91, GM +4.54!; SEMIS LRCX,AMD,XLNX TSM -ALL OVER +3%; BEAM + 3.95 +
CREE 4.49; KOMP 3.44; SMH INDEX +3.34 UFO +3.47; ETC.

ARK fund finally moved higher as a group
Flat or down today was AIA, FB,SNAP, AAPL, KWEB, THCB.

The reopening momentum plus the stimulus that is coming- should be an All Aboard ! for the markets-
So, with that Optimism, what will arise to shake out the markets?
With this amount of upside momentum across many market segments, If something is not participating last week or this week- I would consider it damaged goods and put my $$$$ to work in something that is trending vs seeking a beaten down value trade.

I had received an e-mail today from Cambria funds suggesting to consider that Now is the time for investing in their value fund VAMO.
cambriafunds.com/vamo
I have a lot of respect for the manager- Meb Faber- as his writings have influenced my view of the investing landscape. Cambria offers a number of funds- including a momentum and Global markets fund-
However, one of the ways the fund was written up in the prospectus was
"Value and Momentum combines the two factors and additionally can tactically hedge the equity portfolio with strict risk control methods that are completely systematic. The manager believes that a focus on all three factors – value, momentum, and tactical hedging, produces a portfolio of companies that offer strong characteristics, with the potential added benefit of lower volatility and protecting against market downturns."
As markets go higher, it makes sense to look for a place to Hide when things turn sour-and the value theme should make good sense. It also should have made sense as a safe haven place to park some cash back in Feb and March . But, when the markets Sell off, Value sells off as well. Similarly with a fund that is supposed to be a "Minimum Volatility" fund.
Notice the -40% loss that occurred this past Feb/Mar in VAMO: This is worthwhile to understand- That "Value" is not a Safe Place.and "Mimimum Volatility" may not be minimum after all!


Vanguard also has a Minimum Volatility ETF - VFMV
Comparatively, this has trended higher in 2019, but it also had a substantial -35% decline in the Feb/March sell-off .


So, The SPY also dropped -35% - in terms of volatility, but gave a much more significant return.- So, If the volatility is comparable, but the potential for reward is much more substantial, why put investment dollars at a higher Risk: Reward with 'Value" ?


So, it seems the process of reaching a new account high is a one step forward, 2 step back, 2 steps forward, 1 step back. The differential is of course the large % difference between the Closing price and my trailing stop-loss price- Reflecting on the net positive results of getting stopped out the prior week and Buying the Dip last week- During the process of this past year, I have tried to allow positions to base, as long as they don't decline substantially- and that turns out to be a rewarding approach in this trending market in many cases.

This is the Epitome of trading WITH the trend, and the market is offering a wide field of investment choices that are moving higher.

[sd]

2-9-21
Futures modestly lower

My response to an e-mail regarding the momentum investments:
Yes, that starting number for 2021 was off the DEC31 Closing value-From Friday's Close to yesterdays Close, the account gained over $5k. in just 1 day - It gives me pause  to consider  the Other side of this momentum- The Risk side-
While this Bull market momentum  has lifted almost everything higher, we have areas of  Euphoria and  Optimism  that have jacked up valuations  to all time excess-  That doesn't mean it ends this week, or next month even- but it definitely  will come to an end at some point and revert sharply to the Mean.  Trying to second guess in advance when this end of speculation occurs  is  pointless- As they say, the Market can stay irrational.......And with stimulus in both personal checks coming and economic  stimulus programs to the States and global initiatives- like Clean Energy, Electric vehicles etc- and healthcare.... schools, education -small business  recovery .... The PIE gets larger and larger.It is true, the more assets one has  positioned active on the Risk side, the greater the potential for Gain,  but that is also a double edged sword-   The  greater the downside Risk is-  I have shifted the majority of the Van account onto the  higher RISK  side, over the past  4 months, so the Van IRA  now is also generating a higher % return.  It is important to take Note- That these are gains at  the End of Day-  actual positions- but the "gains" are only on Paper  until....- A real gain is only made when one sells the position and has the cash solidly in the account-  and then is not at RISK-  Let's say the market was to correct  this week on some Global political event-Certainly a possibility- Someone detonates a nuclear bomb in Paris  France.... A Black Swan event no one anticipates-  I think Taleb made the point that Black Swan events occur with greater frequency than  expected- and we seem to forget  that could come on any day .    The recent attempt to take over the White House could easily  have  turned into that Black Swan event that shook the markets-and could have caused a massive sell-off- When these events happen, it generates a lot of automated selling by institutions as prices start to drop beyond programmed acceptable levels of  average  volatility .
   I estimate my probable gains after  my positions being stopped out  would be a loss of -7% to -10%. on a typical market pullback.  Not a Black-Swan sell-off  where  prices drop -30%  overnight. So,  that would easily be a give back of approx  $20-25k.  That is  unless I consider how extended we are at present and  adjust present day  trailing  stops tighter- - It's easy to  sit back with wider stops when the markets are trending higher, and majority of positions are following suit.  
I may tighten stops a bit today....

Mkts down slightly- Tightening stops and using the 2 hr chart as a reference.
For example FCX -Yesterday stalled out at the prior high, today is pulling back- I'm not going to allow this to declinewhen I have a decent gain- so I'm tightening the stop to $30.50

Took time this am to adjust stops even higher on almost every position- I had allowed my initial stop below my entry to stay in place last week, adjusted a bit this weekend using a Daily chart, but today took the opportunity to follow the trending trades with a closer stop by viewing the price action on the 2 hr chart vs the 4 hr or the Daily. This will result in a slight drop in the momentum to possibly pullback on a bit of volatility, but a trending market can make one complacent- Or possibly it has that effect on me - Yesterday was a big market upside day, but it was very worthwhile to move stops again today, as that will tend to lock in more of what has been 6 consecutive up days.
PRNT is an ARK fund ETF that I've held in both accounts at times-

The DAILY chart - Note the higher momentum trajectory starting in January after a slight pullback, couple of Red bars .
until 2 days ago, Price had kept in proximity to the 5 ema- prior 5 green bars.
2-8 Price had a wide gap away open, and also a pullaway from that 5 ema- today, price opened higher but is sideways and well above that fast ema- Present price 1 pm $49.75. that is $2.98 above the 5 ema -or +6% above the fast ema.
Notice the daily PSAR is $43.66 -That is $6.09 below the present price level or -12% if used as a trailing stop-loss - The goal of using psar as a trailing stop initially is to give some wiggle room for price to move much higher-
However, the recent market momentum and the price gap away makes me think that price may go sideways- so I'll also look to a faster time frame chart- the 4 hr and then the 2 hr ....


The 4 hr chart is shown with a fast 5 ema, but this 5 ema will be much closer to the price action-
This 5 ema is at $48.41, with present price $49.92 is a much closer $1.51 or just 3% beneath present price.
I have several different psar values on this chart, with the fastest one @ $44.90 . Notice if one considers PSAR, how well this fast psar worked out during the breakout in Jan 6 2021, finally would have been hit on Jan 27.00, and a reentry Feb 1-.
If this psar $44.90 was to execute as a stop on a price decline, it would be $5.02 or -10% below the present price. If one had entered at the $41.50 psar Buy, the gain would be 7.5% . This chart shows increasing Buying volume and positive indicator action.


Now, viewing a 2 hr chart: showing the prior 10 days- The 2 hr chart will demonstrate 4 bars per day .
Notice that the fast psar is $47.98. .02 psar $46.11 and the slow and wide psar $43.66
The 5 ema is $49.14- Were the daily bars were green, the 2 hr demonstrates a slowing of intraday momentum with 2 blue bars at this time.


2 POSITIONS STOP OUT -THGC,MOS. MOS weakened today and hit the 2 hr psar stop. I saw the price weakness under the fast ema and felt I didn't want to give it much leeway to come back and test the gap. I would have normally placed a stop under the recent base- but that is virtually at the level I purchased it . price going lower as the day progresses - and well below the fast ema- suggests that price doesn't have much market support.


tOOK A -7% lOSS on THCB - tHIS WAS A GAP HIGHER OPEN ON 2-1 AND i CHASED THE MOMENTUM EXPECTING IT COULD BE A RUN AWAY-


At the Close, the Nas and Russel squeak out new highs. and the beat goes on....https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bS3O5zg290k
Van account gained +1.5% today... If the closing numbers are correct....

While our markets were relatively flat today, the 1.5% account gain was helped by some outperformers - RIOT (bitcoin) +21% LOL!
c3AI finally made a higher move- + 12%; CNBS (pot) again higher +11%; YOLO (Pot) +6%; JMIA + 6.87%; F (ford) +3.2%; NVTA + 3.48%

I have exposure to China- and emerging mkts as an offset to just holding US stocks- approx 13% of the portfolio...
ERSX- intl small caps + 2.40
KWEB China internet + 2.40
CHIQ- China Consumer + 1.85%
AIA- Asia lg caps + 0.82
VWO Emerging mkts + 1.1%

TSLA has been flat all week, and down today to $841.75 Bitcoin was up again today- so the 2 are not acting in tandem. I'm not sure if TSLA doesn't move higher soon if that signals a top in the markets? I have a stop-loss at $830- TSLA had the run up on entering the S& P but since
pulling back Jan 11 has essentially gone sideways, with that pullback the prior week that prompted me to take an entry. TSLA is obviously the key to the EV/Battery market, and a whole lot of EV segment spacs have come forward, as well as Hydrogen power plays-
LYFT reported much better than expected- Tomorrow UBER reports- I'm holding a small position. $56.47 taken on Feb 2.


The various ARK fund positions comprise a 20% weight in the combined Van portfolio. ARKK,ARKW,ARKQ,ARKG,PRNT, AND I failed to reenter IZRL after the recent sell-off- since then it has gapped up +10%....ARKG is lagging the other Ark funds in making a new high breakout-
Watching several interviews - and the CHIP shortage is a very real issue- presently causing Ford and several other car mfgs cut back on production.
The prior week I had sold off the SEmi ETF - SMH, and last Monday bought several individual chip names- XLNX,AMD, LRCX- I had intended to buy TSM but apparently had not.

A number of chip names were talked about on Fast Money tonight- But QCOM has dropped hard on earnings this past week. , so it's out.
lAST WEEK i LISTENED TO SELECT WHAT i THOUGHT WERE SOME KEY SEMI NAMES-
AMD- was weak in 2021- it has barely gained since I bought it last week
xlnx looks identical to AMD- downtrending in 2021 and a tepid rally since buying.
LRCX Has better strength in 2021, up modestly since I entered, but I prefer this chart vs AMD, or XLNX-
As I get some cash freed up, I will be investing in the semiconductor space-and likely want to select from those that are leading the sector higher- Presently, that looks like ON, NXPI & SMH

The SMH would be the safer way to invest in the semi space- It's testing the recent highs - But is it the best semi ETF?
MCHP also at prior highs.
TXN is higher in Feb,
NXPI is trending and at a new high- it's a critical auto chip-
ON TRENDING HARD AS WELL
INFFY- CHOPPY PRICE ACTION.

The SMH would be the safer way to invest in the semi space- It's testing the recent highs - But is it the best semi ETF?
This article compares the 5 Top semi ETFs-

www.thestreet.com/etffocus/trade-ideas/top-5-semiconductor-etfs-2021

As I view the Performance chart- 100 days, 30 days, and even 10 days, the sector leader is the Invesco ETF PSI followed by XSD

Invesco Dynamic Semiconductors ETF (PSI)
PSI doesn't aim to provide a broad semiconductor stock portfolio. It tries to identify the best. It evaluates companies based on a variety of criteria, including price momentum, earnings momentum, quality, management action and value.

The fund is also fairly concentrated by investing in just 30 U.S. companies.

Using the PERF chart and viewing the performance over both the short and the long term may discover a consistent out performer.
A very useful tool to use to select the better performer - typically if it outperforms both long term , near term, and short term- it is the leader.

GOING BACK 100 MARKET DAYS - 2 FUNDS UP +50% WITH THE 3 LOWER @ 40%



THE MORE RECENT 30 DAYS


aND THE RECENT 6 MAKET DAYS FROM FEB 2



AND JUST FOR GOOD MEASURE- YESTERDAY AND TODAY...



wHAT IS EVIDENT in these screenshots, is that 2 of these funds continue to exhibit better performance over each look back period.
PSI IS THE RED, XSD IS THE DARK BLUE

aS I GO BACK AND VIEW PERFORMANCES ACROSS EVERY 100 DAYS BACK 1,000 DAYS, THE CONSISTENT LOW PERFORMER IS THE LIGHT BLUE ftxl - fIRST tRUST nAS sEMICONDUCTOR

This is an example of how one can compare stock or ETF performances vs others one is considering- and perhaps be an easy way to discover the better performer.

[sd]

2-10-21 fUTURES SOLIDLY HIGHER !
tHE MELT UP CONTINUES- NO COMPLAINTS
wHOA! Markets giving back the gains from the open and stops are being triggered.
What a quick turn from Futures and a positive market open turning to reverse and decline-!
Not sure what prompted the selling- I ended up below yesterday's Close- backtracking!
A chart I used to illustrate to a friend the PSAR application in trending mkts as a trailing stop and also a Buy entry-
Notice that an earlier indicator is the green bar entry following those red bars, In this case my reentry was early on Feb 1


Did Buy 2 Chip Stocks NXPI & ON earlier today-I aLSO INTEND TO INVET IN 1 OF 2 ETFS IN THE CHIP SPACE- I paused as i saw things turning down .
Stops hit on AAPL, GM,TAN,GNOM,VOOG,TMO- on tightened stops- small gains.

LOSING TRADE-COMPLACENY IN SETTING THE STOP
The 1 losing trade that stopped out -TMO- I lost $110.64 on 3 shares.
What did I do right - and wrong on this trade?
I listened to a bullish TMO comment on Feb 2 and as I was jumping back into stocks and funds, that made sense- I did the Buy with only a quick glance at the chart. Let me review this losing trade and consider what I could have done differently.

1st item to take note of- The Trend- The trend is sideways- A prior 530 high made in Nov, sets the 520-530 as resistance-
In Jan, TMO hit that $520 level and fell back each time. Even though it is a daily chart- and it appeared to be breaking out higher- the price action the following day- Large red bar breaking lower to $500 was a clear warning. It rolled the fast ema down, closed at the 21 ema, and should have been a clear signal to raise a failure stop under the Red bar low. I also failed to take notice of it's
decine, and failed to tighten a stop- My lack of taking the initiative on the red bar to set a stop -would have lost about 1/2 on the trade- $50 vs 110.00



The 2 hr chart w/PSAR - sINCE THE ENTRY WAS LESS THAN IDEAL, The 2 hr chart & PSAR would have provided a much closer stop than the 4 hr or the daily- We also used the 2 hr charts in tightening up our stops today-


CANNIBUS POSITIONS BIG MOMENTUM
LOLO and I both hold 2 cannabis ETFs-CNBS and YOLO- Big momentum in recent weeks with big gaps higher @ the open.
We tightened stops on both positions late am - Supposedly Reddit traders are chasing pot shorts. Even Cramer is talking about the excess in the markets- We've got a double on our initial entries in Jan in later added to the position and added YOLO Feb 2.
I'm planning to see if we get additional upside at tomorrow's open- and sell 1/3 - and then continue to trail a tighter 2 hr psar stop. On big price gap away moves- Expecting that the gap is likely unsustainable , jumping the stop to the fast ema- or the low of the price bar for a part of the position is designed to capture more of the move than just using psar.


tHE 2 HR CHART GIVES 4 PRICE BARS PER DAY- a A big gap open @ $40.51 went lower as the markets also reversed. Price made an upturn midday and closed near the Open $39.90 I will rely on the 2 hr stop-$35.00 for most of the position- If the markets show any upside tomorrow, I would hope to see another move higher.

[ira85]

LOSING TRADE-COMPLACENY IN SETTING THE STOP
The 1 losing trade that stopped out -TMO- I lost $110.64 on 3 shares.
What did I do right - and wrong on this trade?

OMG!! Examining in detail a small loss. That's some serious self-examination. Your dedication to learning all you can is admirable. I hope I can see your work 10 years from now. I'll be able to tell people I knew you before you were a star! Keep up the good work! -ira

[sd]

Thanks Ira,
Yes, it's a lot of detail for a relatively small loss but it tells me I clearly dropped the Ball due to being complacent - and (perhaps having too many positions ) .Even though this was a small loss, it could have potentially been a much larger position that I was complacent in , and that loss could just have easily been $1100.00 vs $110.00 . The chart is simply a tool. I am the Operator - and as such, This was Operator error on my part.
It is up to me to try to apply a consistent approach to the chart and price action- and setting and adjusting stops at appropriate levels as time goes on.
I'm also hoping this thread will be an encouragement to members of my family, and the incidental visitor, based on my longer term results-that they too can improve results by taking an active role in their investing- and possibly don't just invest "safely" , but add some elements of higher Risk, Higher Growth- That Charting can be that tool. This is assuming I am "successful" in managing these assets, vs having them professionally managed for a fee.
A professional firm manages another portion of my investments- They have me in an "age appropriate" allocation that over 4 years has returned an annual average of 5.5% after their fees - And, yet, only had a minimal -10% drawdown staying fully invested. They don't employ any stop losses of course- They simply set it and use a 3rd party portfolio manager- They get their fee regardless of whether the account goes up or down. LOLO's portion with them has a 13% return as she is 7 years younger. The 5.5% return -after inflation and with future RMDs is not likely self-sustaining.

Since I, and many of us have no financial training, If my long term net results deliver Alpha to this account, it would mean that any average Joe or Jill could do the same - If my results end up being a negative, that's on me- Presently I am clearly enthusiastic with my present returns, but this is due to the strength of this market-The test will be when we get significant chop and pullbacks, how much I give back, and how much I can keep.

Thanks for the support! PS - I will not be doing this 10 years from now - Too time consuming - hoping to enjoy the 'golden years ' lol!

[sd]

2-11-21 Futures up mildly- hope today goes higher!
Friend asked about chasing the penny pot stock today- SNDL- and it's a pure gamble- It made an 85% one day gain yesterday, with a 30% gain the day prior- it's premarket is $3.63 - a 23% move higher- will see how it opens- I'm not chasing- I'll be selling some of my YOLO or CNBS into this market momentum I suggested that would be only for the Las Vegas monies one can afford to lose- Like GME- this is a momentary push on the shorts to buy the stocks in this area.

The POT stocks all going down at the open-



POT positions have sold off-
CNBS- Initially had a stop for 50 @ 34.00 which hit in the open 5 minutes,on a big sell bar. - I had intended to sell some -hoping for a higher move- didn't happen. I had a wider stop on the other 52 shares, and so I decided I would follow the 5 minute bars higher and keep stair stepping the stop with each bar- It didn't take long, and price triggered my higher $35.50 but filled higher @ $35.75- My net average sell = $34.88 for 102 shares. Yolo also sold .


lOOKING AT THE BIGGER 2 HR TIME FRAME CHART- recognizing this momentum as "hyped" by the Reddit publicity, I was hoping to sell a portion into an even higher move today- but the sector was seeing selling pressure- and came down - I could have had an order to sell some at the open- since the intent was to sell- that potentially would have executed at $39- or $5 higher than my combined stops sold at- Again a lesson learned in taking some higher momentum profits.
I may look to reenter back into the CNBS trade- Tim Seymour sold portions of some of his pot holdings into yesterdays hyped move- He is the active manager of CNBS, and also on Fast Money.
I will consider a future reentry- expecting the price to decline a bit from here.



SHIFTING SOME FUNDS INTO THE SEMICONDUCTOR SECTOR-

With the news all about a shortage of chip stocks impacting auto mfg and other industries as well, last week I had initially bought some chip names I was familiar with- AMD, LRCX,XLNX- and I had intended TSM- the world's largest producer. After doing some homework and PERF comparisons , I heard 2 names highly recommended- ON and NXPI- so I added both of those names yesterday- As I compared the Semi ETFs in the article linked 1 or 2 days ago post, I determined that PSI and XSD were both outperformers. I just took positions in them today as they are breaking out higher- the ideal entry on these names would have been last week, but I think they are potentially suited for 2021 to fill a supply and demand shortage.
I will add a TSM position- today- I will have about 10k into this sector - so it will have about a 4% portfolio weighting- I'm putting 2x as much into each of the ETFs and smaller amounts in the individual names- I've come to recognize that holding just the ETF gives a decent return, but potentially finding those names that are pulling the ETF higher can give some juice to the returns- .
Let's do a PERF chart to see how these funds and stocks did over the past 13 months- AND then also a shorter time frame- 66 trading days .
TSM was the clear leader in the longer term chart, but both ETFs had very respectable returns over +75%


and 3 months -TSM was clearly the overall outperformer, so I will overweight TSM vs the other individual names- Over time, I may cull out the weakest performer, and shift those monies into the better performer.



adding ON and NXPI into the chart:


TSLA shares sold yesterday on the raised stop executed at $830. I had purchased 5 shares $816.63 on 2-1-21
TSLA has clearly not been participating in the market's upside lately- perhaps near a top?
I would use this as an example of a very well executed trade ,getting in early after a price drop, and buying the upper momentum-
The reason this was a good trade-the prior bars low was $780.00 , the entry was on positive market momentum that day, I was doing a lot of buying, and this was a Risk using $780.00 as the entry stop. My Risk was 5 shares $36.63 on a $ 4,083.00 position- or $-183.00 or a potential Risk of
183/4083 = -4.5% Portfolio Risk .08%
Price gave a shallow pullback 2 days later, and I chose to use that 1st break of trend low as a swing low- and set a stop under that lack of momentum to go higher. Price rallied to go higher, but that failed to capture any follow through.
This is a 2 hr chart, and so the trailing psar is much closer to price than the 4 hr or the daily-
Had i used the 2 hour psar stop, Feb 8 positive green bar close $863.00 had a psar EOD @ $847.00 - That would have been hit Feb 9 after 11 am as price declined lower with 4 consecutive Red bars. I was stopped out the following day as price declined further-

The goal of a stop is 2 fold- Minimize a loss and capture a gain. Using trailing stops to capture a gain is always on a price decline from a higher level- Keep the stop trailing- but give price to achieve higher highs-
Had I used the 2 hr chart psar for my stop more aggressively close, that stop would have captured $17.00 more gain than my wider 830 stop.

Consider that this trade proved to be a small net gain @ $830 = + $13.37 or + 1.6% gain- $66.85
The higher 2 hr psar stop $847.00 = $30.37 = 3.7% vs 1.6% or 2x as large a profit. $151.85 or a 43% higher gain .



Markets weakening again today- Stops being checked. PRNT had stopped out yesterday, going lower today-
The other ARK funds were initially higher today, but possibly weakening? 2 days in a row of market weakness.

2:30- a number of stops have executed today Beam sold yesterday,FB stopped out in IB- I chose to sell for a small loss NVTA $50.75 in the IB account-

I'm tightening stops again - most positions are in positive territory, and I'm ensuring that I won't give back too much on the account should we see more selling momentum tomorrow. I used unsettled funds in purchasing the 2 semi ETFs today and TSM- so I cannot put in stops on those until Monday. Unsettled cash now exceeds 25% on yesterdays and today's - This is due to not using the wider stops found on the daily and even the 4 hr charts- Particularly for positions just recently taken over the past week. Using a faster time frame view is tactical in more volatile markets, but is not conducive to holding for wider price volatility as a daily chart might provide. I think it feels that the prior week's upside momentum has petered out, thus making me more cautious.

There are a number of TV pundits thinking we will end the year much higher on a recovery, but more often you also hear those thinking we will have a -10% or bigger pullback during this year-


EOD- Managed to Close Van slightly higher than yesterday- and up on the week - Will see what Friday delivers-
Semis made a nice move higher today-, likely an area of demand as we move forward in 2021.

[sd]

EOD 2-11-21 prospective BUY MRVL
As I added semis again today, one semi stock- MRVL was sent to me as a prospective trade going into earnings March 3.
The prior Dec notes: www.markethingych.com/articles/marvell-stock-dips-after-earnings-report-warns-of-supply-constraints-51607033713?mod=mw_quote_news
The DAily Chart shows how the earnings Dec 3 told about supply constraints MRVL was having to meet demand. Marvl had outperformed the index by +40% at that point. The stock declined for 6 days , then rallied higher for 6 weeks, and has since had 2+ weeks of decline, with it making a possible basing action this past 5 days. A review of the Daily chart may indicate a base has been making.

This potentially is an Early entry -if it goes higher here - above a $52.20 Buy-stop with a $52.50 limit. Price target -or resistance @ $55.00 with the potential to go higher.
Entry stop $49.50 Potentially the demand for semis will carr5y the demand for MRVL Higher.


a view of the 1 hr chart shows the positive price action in this base better. 7 bars /day.
All solidly green and closing near the high- above the prior attempt to go higher.
I will be a buyer Friday unless the markets are selling off.

[sd]

I have cancelled my Free trial subscription to EarningsBeats.com that would have gone up to a high $147/mos price.
I will be giving Dan Fitzpatrick a 30 day free trial - StockMarketMentor-
I get his free weekly stock suggestions- but I really like the way this guy instructs- just honest-
Check out this introductory video - He also supplies daily trades and 30 minute videos-
Free for 30 days- Then $97/month
www.youtube.com/watch?v=iSsfepxZWio&feature=emb_rel_end

[sd]

2-12-21
Futures mildly in the Red/flat- 3 day weekend coming up-
Hmm Cannabis trades may be rising premarket- I won't be chasing the individual names- but will watch CNBS for an appropriate reentry -ideally at lower prices. Aurora cannabis disappointed yesterday on earnings- Pot has had a lot of run up based on the Democratic win and expected legalization in many states in 2021- Likely to happen as all states will need an additional taxable base due to all of the business closings and slow downs.
Bitcoin has been on a tear this year-Aside from a $300 Riot position just for fun, I really considered it an overhyped and overpriced area,
but there have been a number of companies- PYPL, SQ, and now a bank that are engaging in Bitcoin transactions- It's also being promoted as a counter value to the declining Dollar. There is some exposure through some of the Ark funds-
While this has been a very profitable year for everyone involved in the markets this year, it has certainly rewarded those that put Risk on -particularly in the more aggressive momentum names- It seems that now I am getting more concerned with reducing the Risk to the gains that we have-
and not being overly optimistic as to the path forward- Thus, the present approach is tighter stops- reduce the wider stops to minimize a loss on an entry, and to follow the uptrending position with snug stops- -

Lowering the number of individual positions would also require holding larger % sized positions - Particularly in "Core" positions -like sectors or
expected long term positions- and perhaps learning to trade around those core positions with a goal of selling a portion on momentum run ups, and seeking to reenter on a swing back- but keep a part of the position with a stop above the entry - to seek a long term gain...

Limit orders in to Buy FSR one filled at the open price, 2nd filled at a lower price, a 3rd lower order was not filled-yet
This got an upgrade, and even Cramer claimed to like this out of that group of ev plays.

Used IB- 2 limit orders -$18.50, 17.80 and a 3rd limit @ $17.00 that has not filled- 100 avg cost $18.15


MRVL- filled 1st position 21 @$52.13 @nd Limit $51.00 not filled yet. Van Roth.


Lots of Red,

BOUGHT 25 ABT FOR THE IRA -TRENDING HEALTHCARE....USING THE 30 EMA ON THE 2 HR CHART FOR AN INITIAL ENTRY STOP -IT IS ALSO LOWER THAN THE 2 MOST RECENT PRICE BASES MADE THIS WEEK.

THERE WERE BETTER ENTRIES DAYS EARLIER. I'M PUTTING THIS HEALTHCARE STOCK IN THE IRA FOR MOMENTUM & DIVERSIFICATION
finance.yahoo.com/news/heres-why-abbott-abt-great-170005814.html
THE 4 HR CHART SHOWS THE BIGGER PICTURE-



dOING SOME BUYING
a CANCER DIAGNOSTIC BREAKOUT FROM A RANGE-ntra



wITH THE bULK SHIPPING ALL BACKED UP AND LIMITED SUPPLY,
I bought the BDRY etf - uses futures contracts.
I compared on a perf chart to some of the shipping companies TRTN,TGH,CAI,GSL,ZIM'DAC,AAWW



Riot Blockchain OVER $49 a dbl on my 15 shares LOL!

This week the increased volatility mid week on has caused a number of positions with elevated stops to get sold off-
Cree, CRSP,JUMIA, SNAP in the IB account-
I added to the ARKW, ARKq with a buy-stop to add if it goes higher Tuesday- PRNT had hit the tightened stop, but went back higher, so I had to pay up $3 over where my stop was taken out. ERSX - emerging mkts small caps a similar story- the tight stop netted the majority of the gain, but I had to pay up to get back in- That seems counter intuitive, because Ideally the stop sees a further decline and the opportunity to purchase more at lower prices... On Tuesday, if markets are positive, I have buy-stops on some existing positions to add into them on moves higher-
At the end of the week , the $VIX was lower- down to 20- which is a positive for stocks to move higher.

WEEKLY SUMMARY
From the starting balance of 2021 $214,037
From 1-29-
It's been a Losing week- The Van combined account is $227,553.00

End of WEEK 2-5-21 This WEEK $ 237,602 had a net gain of $10,049.00 Gain - from last week-or +4.3% 1 week gain.
From the starting balance of 2021 $214,037- the net gain

WEEK 2-5-21 $ 237,602 had a net gain of $10,049.00 Gain - from last week-or +4.3% 1 week gain.
YTD + $23,565.00 YTD Performance is +11%.
At least for this week- As last week taught us, Gains on paper can drop quickly.

WEEK END 2-12-2021
aN INTERESTING WEEK - WITH OVER 20% OF THE ACCOUNT VALUE BEING STOPPED OUT ON TIGHTENED STOPS TO RETAIN PROFITS AND REDUCE LOSSES.

5-12 VANGUARD CLOSE- $247,767.00

NET GAIN FROM PRIOR WEEK + $ 10,165.00 = A 1 WEEK GAIN OF + 4.2% - ALMOST IDENTICAL TO THE PRIOR 1 WEEK GAIN.

NET GAIN FROM 1-1-2021 + $ 33,730.00 = A ytd GAIN OF 15.7% .
aVERAGE WEEKLY RETURN ytd IS 15.7%/6 WEEKS = AN AVERAGE GAIN OF 2.6%/WEEK.
hmmm -lets continue this average for the rest of the year! 2.6% x 52 weeks = 136% gain LOL!

I think a good portion of this week's Van success was due to not allowing the net profitable trades to give back by using a wider stop-loss

The QQQ's Closed last week $331.36. This week 336.45 = a net gain of $5.09 or + 1.5% since DEC 31 +15.9%
The SPY Closed last week $387.71 tHIS WEEK 392.64 = A NET GAIN OF $4.93 OR + 1.27% since Dec 31 + 5.01%
sMALL cAP IWM LAST WEEK $221.65 THIS WEEK 227.26 = A NET GAIN OF $5.61 OR + 2.5% since DEC 31 +15.9% same as the qqq's
The QQQJ YTD since Dec 31 +12.9%
The RYT - Eq Weight Tech YTD - +7.5%
KWEB- China Tech YTD- + 33%
AIA -cHINA LARGE CAP ytd +17%
EEM eMERGING MKTS YTD +11.8%
ERSX EMERGING SM CAPS YTD +22 %

What is important to understand is that it's not necessarily about the Dollars gained or Lost- That's a relative amount and different for each position- or anybody's account- The correct measure to use against one's Benchmark would be to calculate the % gain or Loss- over a longer period of time .
Viewing the above numbers of large ETF's with the YTD returns - While I have had a few trades returning +100%, those are offset by the losing trades- and while it's engaging to make a trade, trail the stop, decide to sell, All that activity to protect from a downturn results in a satisfactory , yet reduced return-
As i get Closer to Spring, garden and fishing season, I cannot be sitting at a computer if I've got a fishing Rod in my hand and in the boat-
Yet the draw is- I don't have that $Million dollar portfolio to take from... later on in life- so I'm trying to build while I can.
As i do the math, my average gains over 6 weeks = $5k+ but it seldom is there- My 1st week in this year I think I had a $19k return- offset by down weeks and upweeks- The account can swing down 5k in just 1 day- and we have been trending higher with only a few minor hiccups this year.
With stops in place, a major sharp market sell-off would gap my stops and sell at -10% - essentially a drop in value of $20k in one or two days-
Unless I employ very tight stops- thus that logic of retaining profits with tight stops precludes the reality that normal volatility swings will initiate the stop , causing me to reenter at a higher price and lose the average holder gain by then transacting at a higher cost.
I may be comfortable with continuing the tight stop approach as it allows me to hold what are considered to be "Riskier" investments.

One net goal as i move forward is to be more selective in taking a position- It is mentally engaging to consider taking a speculative trade, and to see it come to fruition- A quick reflection of trades well executed for consistent gains in recent months- Snap, SPCE, QS, and others- but these were all "technical" trades- almost practice executions- with relatively small position size involved-
I have 3-4 present very small spec "Fun" trades on - 2 with over 100% gains- but the $$$ amounts are insignificant- But that is part of the draw into this individual chess game...of one vs the markets...

[sd]

2-13-21
3 day weekend for the markets- Cold and Wet in NC - freezing across much of the rest of the country- Good opportunity to do some reviews and consider how I will position myself Monday with the remaining freed cash. Still waiting on a transfer of funds out of my employer's IRA account-
Saw this Link to the longer term performance of the ARK funds-
etfs.ark-funds.com/hubfs/1_Download_Files_ETF_Website/Performance-and-Other/Performance_ARK_ETFs.pdf

[sd]

www.tradingview.com/chart/VUZI/sysmzqwB-Is-2021-the-year-of-Smart-Glasses/

2.13.21 A SPECULATIVE SMART GLASSES CONSIDERATION VUZI-
www.youtube.com/watch?v=zSYohs0AYh0

1ST TIME I visited this site- the screener is interesting -and may offer some excellent trading prospects to review .I will explore it further today.
Stockcharts also has a screener, that I need to learn to more efficiently get better prospects.

Link to the screener-I'm most interested in going long trending stocks -potentially making new highs- I sorted by the highest gains, and VUZI was on the list- and interestingly- the video was also liked on that list.

www.tradingview.com/markets/stocks-usa/highs-and-lows-ath/

I've got to climb out from under this Rock one of these days! LOL!

This is a very low volume stock-
This has just broken out higher from a pullback consolidation-- and just making a new high-
I will be taking a very small Spec 1/2 position .
Tuesday on a higher move- I will allow $1,000.00 to be the maximum position size .
I will set an initial Buy-stop with Limit - I will use only $500 of the $1,000 allocation on the Buy-stop above the closing price. The remaining $500 will be used with a lower limit order - $14.00 to average out the position cost lower if filled and it pulls back.
If the Buy-stop order is not filled, price may pullback to the lower $14 limit and fill-I view the $12.50 lows as a likely support.
The 2 hr chart - 4 bars per day- show the solid breakout Friday- with additional volume.



the DAILY CHART