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Post by sd on Sept 4, 2019 10:04:54 GMT -5
Did not anticipate the gap up in ROKU- My prior limit for 20 was taken at the open $161.47 net gain $389.00-
I'm holding the other 10 without a limit - and placing a limit order for 20 shares @ 161.00 just climbing with momentum -up to 164- back to work-
Will evaluate over lunch. Hate to chase a gap away.
Bot 50 PFSI $30.54 moments ago on the strong up move- testing the Elder Impulse approach w/stoch-rsi very strong- solidly green
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Post by sd on Sept 6, 2019 10:51:26 GMT -5
Friday mid day- I adjusted my limit order and repurchased 10 @ 161.75 on the pullback yesterday
With this day 3 from the bigger gap- 170 appears to be a short term resistance- or short term bullish ascending triangle- See how the day closes out-
PFSI is also acting bullishly today following yesterdays gap open high which failed to hold momentum and closed near the day's low- Bullish action today-
Both of these are clearly still trending strong- Stoch-RSI solidly in the green.
GDX position will likely become a loss as it has almost reached my $29.00 stop under yesterday's low of the red bar.
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Post by sd on Sept 13, 2019 13:09:20 GMT -5
Lost most of my nice gain as Roku sold off on the APPLE TV news this week- Had a wide 145 stop-loss- PFSI is rolling over and appears to be losing momentum. It has had a nice long uptrend, I getting in late- but the strategy is to not be afraid of getting in trends, but also to not jump out too early-intraday- Presently it is pushing lower at the 10 ema. Likely will set a stop at today's close under the low of the bar.
Been busy this week - not much intraday viewing time- But I had a bond fund stop out in the Ira account that had been trending strongly- and so I picked up 100 shares of TBT this afternoon. With a tight stop @ $26.00- as it is a recent upturn from the predominant downtrend. I had briefly looked at a few long charts but didn't find anything I wanted to step into during lunch.
TBT chart is somewhat textbook - Since the predominant momentum has been DOWN, this week's upturn is a higher Risk trade Imo. So the tighter than normal stop-loss just under the price bar low.
Stoch/RSI moved above the mid line as a green bar formed, pull back the next day- Notice the $24.60 tops the prior week's attempt to go higher. With Stochastic always an early up cross, and RSI now crossing the
mid line higher- Stoch/RSI solidly in the upper 0.80 ,, makes this a reversal of trend trade that I'll take a chance on- Should plan to set a target @ the $29.00 level- past range broken- possible resistance.
i.imgur.com/AijQpup.png
After the Close: A tad bit higher- but I cannot trust a short term turn against the entire year long downtrend- It simply would appear that the recent drop in price in August is an overreaction-a momentum move lower has occurred that is well beyond the average trend decline- and this upmove may simply be a reversion to the mean - and not really be foretelling a major market shift.
Here's the picture after the Close: Recognizing that the trend direction has underlying momentum- The trend has "Persistence" - Trading against the trend - or Betting that a bottom is in place - is likely to generate a higher number of whipsaw failing trades, vs finding stocks or etf's already in uptrends and stepping into those trending trades.
i.imgur.com/81DSjFT.png
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Post by sd on Sept 17, 2019 4:15:50 GMT -5
AMZN stop raised to $1800.00 on weakness. PFSI trade is still on- stop raised to $30.00
Annotating the chart with the various indicators- Goal is to employ a Long strategy when price is trending- but to protect the trade by raising stops on price weakness -after a Close at or price penetration of the 10 ema- This PFSI chart lends itself to that approach and is perhaps an "Ideal" illustration -without a lot of wide volatility whipsaw swings.
The Stoch-RSI30 is very responsive- a cross above the 50 line, green bar and ema 4 above the 10 is an early indication-to consider a long position- caveat here is that this should be for trades in predominant larger uptrends-as my focus.
There were several price pullbacks that penetrated the 10 ema- that would prompt raising a stop-loss from wider to closer to the bottom of that penetrating price bar- in the PFSI chart, that raised stop would have not been hit as price managed to move higher the following days, and trend resumed- Stoch-RSI had a couple of dips below the 0.80 line when that occurred. That's not a reason to exit- But weakness below the 0.50 mid line is more significant as can be seen 9.16 .
The stochastic indicator-14,3 in the lower chart also has a RSI 14 in the same window. That Stochastic setting makes early crossovers between the black and red line- and the RSI 14 is the typical slower
signal-- The combined indicator-oscillator- STOCH/RSI 30 works well by itself in this example to confirm the price action of the Elder Impulse Bars.
With more volatile price action, more whipsaw signals would be generated. Goal is to stay on the right side of the Trend, and if stopped out and trend resumes, to get back in.
i.imgur.com/yi02HBF.png
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Post by sd on Sept 18, 2019 19:40:03 GMT -5
After viewing a number of trend reversal trades- i consider these harder trades- and am always suspicious on the 1st real reversal in a base situation-
Since the chart colors all look similar- the green bar in a downtrend can be generated on a minor reversal -but the trend has momentum to continue down-
The chart example of ENV illustrates a downtrending stock that makes a possible bottom, attempts a rally, green bars are generated, but a pullback and retest that is a higher low, and then price moving higher out of the base. I took this trade as part of my learning curve in applying this approach in a downtrend -potential reversal.
i.imgur.com/XEXr8pR.png
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Post by sd on Sept 20, 2019 12:18:30 GMT -5
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Post by sd on Sept 24, 2019 3:59:21 GMT -5
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Post by sd on Sept 25, 2019 19:02:41 GMT -5
Today the markets managed to rally, despite the attempt to portray Trumps' conversation with the President of Ukraine as an impeachable offense-
I took a position back in VCLT on the move back higher-solidly green uptrending bars looked promising but noticed that the Stoch-RSI hadn't shown much vitality-and was below the 0.50 mid line-
Today's move closed below the fast 4 ema, penetrated the 10 ema- and - thus qualifies as a signal to anticipate further weakness- so I will raise a stop-loss to just below the low of today's bar-
Perhaps it was the market's upside move that caused this weakness-- as i view VCLT as a defensive position, also a prime candidate for analyzing the merits of Elder impulse with a couple of indicators-
To note here- the guideline for entry includes a Stoch-RSI 0.50 upside cross- Which has not occurred.
i.imgur.com/wcB3Lh3.png
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Post by sd on Oct 2, 2019 18:01:17 GMT -5
10.2.19 Wednesday-Completed taking my losses and locking in some gains-at lunch today-
I took a big hit on Cure this week- although it was a relatively small exposure- -in the trading account-The stop i hAd set appears to perhaps been a day long vs gtc. I will assume I was sloppy in the initial order and failed to change the auto setting. Still holding T as a conservative play - but tightened the stop And PFSI gave up this past week for a small net loss-
In the investment IRA- I had previously overweighted Utilities- VPU, Real Estate- VNQ, and went defensive with Bonds- VCLT- I also held smaller exposures to other sectors- that became small losses- and finally had tightened stops- As i saw the profit factor declining in the defensive funds- chose to tighten more- and today to Sell to lock in what still had gains- The recent bond fund ADD- VCLT has been sideways for the past 2 weeks- stop is within .05% of the recent price lows. Where do you go to protect your assests?
I saw I had an e-mail from Meb Faber- "Ivy Portfolio " Cambria funds- suggesting I consider his "TAIL" fund- that incorporates Put Options and T bills- It certainly gained nicely last Oct - Dec- but has to be considered as a tactical allocation on a totally bearish future market-It likely would be a more viable exposure than a Gold component- Might be worth looking into more if this bearish market trend keeps the economy in a stall mode.
T was an impulsive purchase- didn't have the momentum based on Stoch-RSI values, -but had a solid green bar recovery within an uptrend- following a pullback from an excessive momentum up move.
Today, it broke below the range and closed lower- so the Red bar calls for the stop-loss to be raised to the low- No optimism here-
At this point, Preservation seems more essential than taking added Risk- Let's see if we duplicate last year's 15% decline m from Oct to Dec 24
"When you consider the stats for the market's performance this year, it looks impressive- but the reality it was based on a major decline off of 2018's highs in late August/Sept.
This Chart from the 2018 highs up to today's price action- tells the real story of this past year. Doesn't bode well for the Buy and Hold approach-" This is the basis for the comparison of actual performance-
of a Buy and hold approach vs a timing approach. Essentially the Buy and Hold approach for the 1 year is virtually NIL - vs +8.6%
i.imgur.com/s0gsmH9.png
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Post by sd on Oct 5, 2019 9:28:52 GMT -5
10.5-19 Sat-
On the Day job today, but getting a morning break, some thoughts on this week's sell-off and followup rally.
The market gets to choose what it wants to listen to- and then -gets to interpret it in what is the mode de jour...
Seems we initially sold off on some weak mfg numbers -for several days- suggesting fears of a recession, global economic slowdown etc- but then we rally back on the "weak" unemployment numbers- best in 50 years mind you, at 3.5%! And the market chooses to think this will force the FED to provide a rate cut this month and keep the punch bowl filled with liquidity- and the potential for a higher market-
If earnings get lowered due to the tariff situation and economic slowing- and the Transports- Fedx are suggesting that this may be the case-and we truly are in a weakening economy-
TLT is up about 19% while sPY is about 20 with the week's come back rally- Comparing TLT and SPY on a perf chart is really instructive- Will try to provide that when I get back on the home computer- Comparing performance in the past months-60 day perf-July-present- SPY has done little, While TLT gained +8%.
As volatility spikes and SPY declines, TLT tends to generally move higher- will have to do a correlation. But TLT is also up 22% since Jan 2....
As Tech , peaked in May, the upwards velocity of TLT- angle of ascent of the 50 has continued higher- while q's are horizontal-
I had stayed with Tech for a good portion of this year- but - as Brian Livingston points out- find the momentum-and be aware of shifts- rotation. I was amazed to see in a grouping of Vanguard etf's : SCTR % GAIN YTD
VGT VGT - Vanguard Information Technology ETF 86.8 etf 215.91 50.71 30.70 397865 10‑04
VNQ Real Estate Reit 95.4 etf 93.43 20.68 28.42 2189446 10‑04
VNQ vnq 95.4 etf 93.43 20.68 28.42 2189446 10‑04
VPU VPU - Vanguard Utilities ETF 98.7 etf 143.74 28.49 24.72 112011 10‑04
VCLT Vanguard Long-Term Corporate Bond ETF (VCLT) 98.2 etf 102.08 19.49 23.59 275714 10‑04
VCLT VVanguard Long-Term Corporate Bond ETF (VCLT) 98.2 etf 102.08 19.49 23.59 275714 10‑04
QQQ q's tech sector 69.9 etf 188.81 35.48 23.14 32717329 10‑04
VOOG VOOG - Vanguard S&P 500 Growth ETF 66.9 etf 160.89 27.24 20.38 99957 10‑04
SPY SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) 69.1 etf 294.35 47.87 19.42 66295906 10‑04
AMZN Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) Discretionary Broadline Retailers 27.7 lrg 1739.65 237.68 15.82 2484413 10‑04
AMZN Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) 2 Discretionary line Retailers 27.7 lrg 1739.65 237.68 15.82 2484413 10‑04
AMZN AMZN - Amazon.com, Inc. Discretionary Broadline Retailers 27.7 lrg 1739.65 237.68 15.82 2484413 10‑04
VFQY VFQY - Vanguard US Quality Factor ETF 32.9 etf 78.45 9.34 13.51 172 10‑04
ARKK ARKK - ARK Innovation ETF 3.7 etf 41.97 4.78 12.85
While VGT has the best gain for the YTD, it's momentum stalled in May, declined- went higher and topped in AUGUST- SCTR strength a 86.8
Utilities and bonds have the present highest sctr rating 98.2, 98.7 followed by Reits 95.4
So, i loaded up on several bond etf positions - about 30% now in the IRA , and TLT in the trading account.I already held VCLT but doubled the position.
While I didn't care for the sharp decline in September- a drop of -6% from the August high, it would have been taken out with the higher stops-
It would be a good candidate for backtesting a momentum trading approach - and presently looks to be holding favorable upside momentum.
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Post by sd on Oct 8, 2019 12:33:29 GMT -5
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Post by sd on Oct 10, 2019 19:01:26 GMT -5
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Post by sd on Oct 14, 2019 19:10:38 GMT -5
Bond funds stopped out as China talks appeared positive- and I went long tech- Today- 10-14- markets are mixed as the China talks may not be locked in-
Feeling somewhat whipsawed here- small losses n the recent bond entries, and a momentum trend is not yet present to support the tech entry- will see how this plays out .
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Post by sd on Oct 15, 2019 19:41:05 GMT -5
I had taken a position in ROKU Friday, and it popped nicely today- Markets had upside follow through as earnings appeared to be positive - ARKK funds started higher- ARKF looks interesting here- and i would be a buyer - Nice dbl bottom base established- recent ETF in the ARK line-up - and those funds approach on innovation is ideal for the speculative portion of one's portfolio.
Went very long technology- with large VGT positions in several accounts- Cut the remaining bond funds this week- based on technicals- red bars- Also long VOOG- a SPY alternate -
It seems that the political rhetoric has been put aside by the markets- for a day or two at least- If earnings continue to be good-and remain the focus, stocks may continue to gain ground- at least-hopefully- for this week-
ARKF - focus is on financial innovation-I like the chart formation- dbl bottom, $20.80, and a potential for upside with the financial sector . Caveat is that this is a sideways range-bound play- and not a trending p-lay- so it should be a smaller spec position-if taken at all. ARKK also has a dbl bottom @ $40.00
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Post by sd on Oct 18, 2019 6:28:10 GMT -5
I decided to sell 1/2 of ROKU- at today's open. it's up about 14%, solid green bars above the fast 4 ema - uptrending-
Locking in some gains at today's open, and stop raised to the low of yesterday's strong bar- Stoch-RSI hasn't crossed the mid line- and overhead resistance in the 145-150 range-
In an ideal scenario, the open will be a gap up to the resistance level, where 1/2 will sell at the open. Get that higher price- - and the lower 130 stop will be low enough to be outside of the volatility- and the position goes higher, stop gets progressively trailed up daily...  AHH, The Optimism trading can bring when you hold a winning position!
We'll see if my optimism and the 4 ema is rewarded with a higher move.
i.imgur.com/nYlzeUZ.png
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AHH, The Optimism trading can bring when you hold a winning position!