SD'S 2019 RAMBLINGS

[sd]

While starting this thread a day or two early. I hope to be looking forward, as opposed to behind,,,
With Big sell-offs this past week , I actually put in some Buy orders on Monday and Wednesday- while others were selling-
Sort of a mini Warren buffet approach-with blindfolds- If we're -20% down, how much lower can we go?
And that begs the real question that we dont know-
Fortunately, I'm not down -20% - yet but we'll see what transpires in January- The recent days have seen a sharp bull rally =an oversold bounce ina a evolving bear market....
Presently, My belief system suggests we sold off much more than warranted- - but that's also based on a 9 year old Bull market with Fed support-
lots of political pressures these days-

My #1 recommendation for 2019 investors would be to get a copy of "Muscular Portfolios" by Brian Livingston
This is a great summation of a way for portfolio management to adjust to be on the side of market momentum-
Very well documented, illustrated, and makes a compelling argument in a way to use market momentum & ETFs reallocation in order to stay on the right side of the big market trends and reduce the big downside of Long only portfolios. I'll be following him this year to compare his portfolio approach results....

Also- The Author keeps an active website that is FREE- and updates the various portfolios -Papa Bear, Mama Bear- Baby, and End Game
stockcharts.com/articles/muscular-investing/2019/01/which-etfs-will-outperform-1.html

While the portfolios are comprised of multiple ETFs covering different asset classes- the allocations are not spread across all of the assets at the same time... just those 3 showing the best momentum over recent monthly periods-and expected to continue for the next month. Presently the Papa Bear holds- Gold, T Bill;s, and Intl Bonds- those funds designed to have statistically better performance over the next 30 days..... With a potential for the oversold bounce to extend into January, it will remain to be seen. But the design of his reallocation methods are also to reduce the downside Risk overall- a point that should be noted by anyone holding a fixed allocation in their IRA.
He also uses a lot of Vanguard funds where possible- and since Vanguard doesn't charge to buy and sell their funds in a Vanguard account,-it allows reallocation without a great expense .

[sd]

Here we go... my +5% gain in the investment account gets sliced in 1/2; and the +2% gain in the trading acct for 2019 becomes a -1% loss-
Thanks to AAPL- Well, MKT , Thanks for reinforcing employing stops-

[sd]

1.4.19 What a difference a 1 day makes- Toss in an outstanding jobs report and combine that with a less aggressive and more accommodating Fed in their policy statement, and you reverse yesterdays sell-off and put on some gain for good measure! Even AAPL gained + 4%-.
Yesterdays price action took me out of my trading positions, with stops getting activated- The investment positions were not looking happy, but today's action recovered and I'm essentially at $$$$ neutral- fully invested with last year's losses combined with this year's gains at Break even- a couple of positions
in the red, offset by numerous other smaller positions in the green.
My single large $$$ laggard remains AMZN-
In the investment side, I was caught surprised by the degree of health care index decline yesterday- VHT was the last position I added more into- and it had held up relatively well in 2018- I thought it was behaving defensively- until it made the recent decline- my add- and then it appeared to want to go lower- Saved by the Fed on this day is the take-a-way....

[ira85]

Thanks for posting about "Muscular Portfolios" by Brian Livingston. I've only spent a short time looking at pages describing the system, but it's very interesting to me.

It appears to purchase ETF's that are currently the fastest growers. And that results in LOWER volatility and improved performance versus buy and hold. With free guidance on what ETV's to buy to make this system work, it appears to be simple and very inexpensive. Takes just a few minutes a month. Interesting to me because I'm rapidly approaching retirement and I want to avoid big losses while not giving up too much potential gain.

I read something recently on Seeking Alpha about another trend following system to get you out of bear markets fairly early and to buy back in to equities when the risk is low. It was written by Logan Kane "Leverage for the Long Run." His system would produce more volatility, by design, but substantially greater return over long periods. The basic system is remarkably simple.

1. As long as the S&P 500 is above its 200-day moving average, buy and hold UPRO.
2. When the S&P 500 sinks below its 200-day moving average, rotate to cash. That's it.

You'd have avoided almost the entirety of the bear markets in 2000-2002 and 2007-2009 while catching the upside with 3x leverage.

He then suggests substituting the 3X leveraged TQQQ instead of the 3X leveraged UPRO because the NASDAQ 100 has a history of out performance versus the S&P 500.

He suggests a couple of other tweaks, but the above is the basic system. For more on that system see "The Trading Strategy That Beat The S&P 500 By 16+ Percentage Points Per Year Since 1928." seekingalpha.com/article/4226165-trading-strategy-beat-s-and-p-500-16-plus-percentage-points-per-year-since-1928

I think Blygh once posted some info about his study of how moving average trading systems were not as effective as touted. So this may be a system that works on back-testing, but may not work so well in real time.

Again thanks SD for the Muscular Portfolios info. -ira

[sd]

You're welcome IRA-I think his book is a great read and presents a well documented and backtested approach that incorporates market momentum across large indexes as a way to take advantage of market trends and to reduce the Risk in downturns- As he points out- his approach will underperform slightly in bull markets, but outperform in declines- and ultimately never see the same amount of market decline- Understanding that shifting into non correlated funds when the tide is going out reduces Risk and perhaps could also be viewed along with understand that weekly moving averages help define the predominant trend- There are no absolutes 100% of the time, but the goal in applying any approach is to improve the statistics into your favor-
a note about using leveraged positions over the longer term- They appear deceptively simple- but they use complex derivatives that require them to be rebalanced on a daily basis- and -over the long term- Many will not provide the expected results- the volatility, and the daily rebalancing fails to deliver the expected leverage gains- There are some examples-I have read about- where the underlying has net gains while the leveraged goes negative. Selecting a long term approach (s) for managing one's retirement should be done judiciously.

I think I'm likely a few short years ahead of you on the road to retirement- (circa 1950) - FWIW- I will occasionally share some of my experiences- as food for thought- as the intent of this thread is to be personally accountable, and to "share" what I can. Others can take what they will if it applies or disregard- I wish I had started investing 15% of my income 4 decades ago- and enjoyed the fruits of compounding these past decades-Had I done so, I'd be writing this from the Villa with Blue waters and 75 degrees at my winter habitat... and a very nice 7 figure retirement account to withdraw from...and toss in the Dave Ramsey approach to no debt! ALAS, tis not so-for me personally- wish it was... but you work with what you have....if time is not on your side-

Retirement Funds- You don't get a do-over here- so the conventional wisdom is to get more conservative the closer to retirement you get-and don't Risk what you worked decades to have as your financial back-up for possibly 30+ years in retirement. And Max out the ROTH when possible after getting the Employer's match 1st- Often the conservative approach suggests your age in Bonds, the balance in income producing funds- - and not in individual stocks- Plan on a conservative withdrawal rate at 4%. Have multiple "buckets" of diverse sources of income-Social Security,Pension, IRA funds, Rental income, Annuities, ETC. For some of us, we don't get to select from the entire enchilada.... In my case, I will eventually have some SS income and some IRA investments-and an Annuity.

Consider not putting All of Your Eggs into one basket- or just one method- - Diversification in investing is all about reducing the Risk - while still getting some higher upside-
In my case, I put Roth dollars into Roth IRA Trading accounts-. Several years ago I transferred most of my retirement funds out of the employer's account due to the higher fees and limited selections. Rolled some into a Vanguard Brokerage IRA (Investment focus) no commissions, no fees etc for using Vanguard products; and as a counter balance to doing it "ALL" on my own, found a local Fiduciary investment advisor - After several instructive meetings, I elected to invest with his firm some funds under management and some funds into a fixed annuity .
(Safe Bucket)- guaranteed to not light the house on fire, but also to never decline in value- Lots of things to be cautious about in annuities- but I view mine as comparable to the conservative Bond component of a diverse portfolio.
Since I am still working full time -Hope for a change in that soon- I had postponed taking my SS at 66 to capture the +8% add for each year one delays-and to increase the potential Survivor benefits for my spouse when I pass.
The picture can get complex- because if one takes early SS at 62- they receive a 25% reduced payment for life- Now, If one has accumulated enough assets at 62 to retire- God Bless, and enjoy. Also affects the spousal payment - If one has enough credits earned- the max monthly household payment is in the $4,100+ range-
I had thought I would go until age 70- before taking my SS- to get the max +32% earnings and higher spousal payments- Oddly enough , I will now qualify to take spousal payments on my younger -age 62 spouse and still defer my full payment on my own account- (Done away with by congress for those born after 1954)
However, the Frugal Trade-off on deferring to get the larger payment for later years is that one also gives up present day income that may be needed to meet expenses -or that could make the difference in building a larger savings account- or investment account- if the monies were not immediately needed.

The average SS payment is approx $1,400.00 or $16,800.00 a year in income- That is well below the poverty level, and over 1/2 of Americans will only have SS to depend on, as they have never saved or invested on their own- Everyone should open their own account at SS.gov to discover what the benefits they hope to receive will deliver- I'm amazed that my co-workers within 5 years of retiring haven't done so- It's almost as though they don't want to look at the reality behind the curtain- or take responsibility. They are more comfortable in continuing to do what works week in and week out- and failing to develop a longer term plan.

Thinking that you will make up for a retirement shortfall by trading to increase what you will need means you are having to take on inordinate Risk ....Plan ahead, Risk what can be lost without having a big impact on your net worth.

Max out the HSA- Max out the Roth annually! Max out the IRA-
The Roth is after taxes- and this year is a great year to get the Max into the Roth Account- I intend to do so for both my Spouse and I-
I am maxing out the HSA to the $6,500 allowed- as we get older- medical expenses and higher deductibles will be used. Hopefully years down the road-
I will try to max out my SS to get the $18,000 max allowed- This will bring my taxable income down and the goal is to stay in the lowest tax bracket.

Personal goals- I have simply worked too much the past few years on salary - Feel that I have been taken advantage of and that is not what I want in these final years - numerous 66% Saturdays and 10+ hours daily -more as a salaried babysitter for the company, trying to meet accelerated schedules. I read that many post 55 years of age persons experience job lay-offs and cut backs that affect a large % of Americans at a time in their lives when they were not prepared for it- This can happen to anyone, in any industry- All the more incentive to do more when younger- and not rely on that employer's stability for your personal position.
During Christmas Vacation- I had a realization- I actually could quit working Today and retire- We don't have any debt and live conservatively- a little cash in the bank and in the retirement accounts-
A trip to Barnes and Noble- book - "How to Retire Happy, Wild ,and Free by Zelinski- prompted me to do a write-up of the Pro's and Cons- about my employment-
After several days of consideration, I called the owner of my company to inform him I was not the candidate for this next fast paced , high dollar project they had me slated for-
We met for lunch that week, I gave my summation- The company used to be built on a 40 hours, 5 day work week- The prior company owners all retired as multi-millionaires from what was done with a "family oriented" business- Now, it seems the new normal this younger millennial generation expects is these much larger, more demanding and accelerated construction projects to be built without regard for the personal costs of those they rely on- Some things can be numerically compensated for- in the short term- but when it disrupts the family structure, $$$ compensation is- at best- a short term motivator .
Glad that got done- I'll be finishing the present project likely by March-
and look forward to spending some time focused on investing, market action, gardening, etc.... should that be the outcome-

For low cost commissions, I use Interactive Brokers for the trading account.
and Vanguard for the Investment account. And- my "professional managed" funds- not including the annuity- The professional Equis account for December 2018 shows that all of the profits of the past 2 years have evaporated- Well, I feel pretty good comparatively on a performance standard- I kept the 2017 gains by making some active trades based on momentum and direction. Outperformed the pro's gives a certain sense that I'm on the right track...
This turned into more of a personal rant than intended; but the message I would convey to any reader is to plan ahead and to work the plan- and start early and do as much as one can
-when one can. Don't wait until you are 50 + and have to struggle to play catch-up-

[sd]

Another up market day! Nice to see a lot of green on the cost basis/profit line- Among the best % gains are the Vanguard Value and Vanguard Quality - both up +7% -but the best gain % wise is the VDE energy position -up 8.7% .That was in a tailspin lower.... Of course , all that can change with the wind- but it's notable that all were purchased as markets were selling off hard- and caught the early move higher . Not so several of my larger positions that I purchased during the pullbacks, and added into- so I cannot claim exceptional clairvoyant timing at what presently appears to have been a short term bottom from where we have since bounced and will return to the bull trend of yesterday-
In Jan 2018 I was fortunate enough to recognize the unsustainable momentum up swing, and stopped out with some close trailing stops- but I didn't pay as much attention as the year proceeded and essentially got lazy and didn't monitor things well- and i gradually made some reentrys with a relaxed attitude- We have selective memories- it's a defensive mechanism that tries to allow ourselves to believe we did the "right" thing at the right time- I eventually stopped out and failed to capture any additional gains- got sloppy with AMZN and NFLX positions- and went into the red. I eventually sold the NFLX for a considerable loss , but held the AMZN- down $2,000 on 5 positions. Trying to toss in some accountability here - You deserve what you get when you get complacent from the markets and fail to respond to what the trend is telling you. I held both of these in the investment (Vanguard) account and still hold AMZN- just another $200 or so and I'll be back in the green on that specific trade-
But, overall, I'm now back net profitable despite the losing positions-Thanks to the market recovery- thanks to the Fed soft speak .... and no thanks to AAPL for it's earnings miss tanking the markets.

Now comes the "Big question"- Is this just a Bear market Rally move higher -destined to fizzle and we drop lower yet; or is this the max bottom of a 20% decline and we will now move higher from here? If this is a Bear Market Rally, Or a momentum high rally, I would raise my stops to lock in momentum gains- I hadn't reviewed the charts yet to take that perspective- But, often there is an overshoot to both the downside and then the over reaction to the upside.
From a market performance - consider that 7.5 or 8% is an "average" return - i have several positions- about 20% of the port value that have exceeded the average gain. I hold other positions that are barely net positive - because i bought into these on the way down, (dollar cost averaging) and hope to see the brighter skies of solid green 10% across the board...
So- the Active approach attempts to capture the majority of the upside move- and then to repurchase on the decline lower- potentially adding more shares along the way for the same dollar amount invested.,
Viewing the hourly chart- VDE put in an open today at $81.35- and closed higher- I think it'll go to $84- but I'll trail a stop at the open - and capture the majority of the reversal if stopped out- I could also split the positions- but this market move is an oversold reaction- and I can sell into the momentum as it likely will settle in -in the days ahead.
I wish I had more time to allocate to trading- But- they also say- "Be careful of what you wish for "
After viewing the hourly charts, today's open seems to be a valid momentum place to set a stop- Did so for the value, quality, and Momentum funds-....

[sd]

The theme of long term market returns establishes the "Market" - S&P 500- as the benchmark from which sales persons and investment gurus take their start interpreting data and making brochures and extending portfolio retirement scenarios-
As well documented, most professional firms fail to beat the "index"-over time- John Bogle gets it right- and they will often fail to use the Total Return results- TR- comparatively-
I had that illustrated to me by a prospective firm offering American Funds- as an illustration- glossy brochure- that compared the American Funds Growth fund against the S & P index - the difference being, the American Funds included the dividend reinvestment while the index returns did not include the dividend reinvestment- Technically, this oversight was noted with an asterisk on the glossy sales chart- When i pointed the obvious discrepancy out to the sales rep- He seemed unaware of the distinction- that excluding the dividends from the S&P while including them on the growth of the American Fund was not an Apples- to Apples comparisom. Dividends comprise about 40% of the long term market returns I have read....
So, consider this 2 position portfolio suggested by John Bogle- as simple to execute- and mentioned here in this article- It's a good base line startting point when thinking about portfolio positioning.
stockcharts.com/articles/muscular-investing/2019/01/which-etfs-will-outperform-3.html

Jason with Leavitt brothers illustrates using multiple time frames to position entries and exits
www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vpq-aUsqWCg&feature=youtu.be

[sd]

Besides Portfolio Allocation-and re balancing-and contributions- as the likely best method to achieve long term gains... Where does TA come into the Mix?
Simple seems best- Know the trend, trade With the trend, understand the market's overall momentum- and go with that larger directional tide...
But when do you determine that the predominant trend is no longer in Charge- and it's time to rethink your basis for direction?
Using some EMA's for direction is basic- When all are in proper alignment and sloping up to the right- all is trending well.
Only the daily chart- Price can fluctuate- make a series of higher highs and higher lows- and along the way -price can decline below the faster 4,10,20 ema and still be in an uptrend-based on the 50 & 100- Those periods of upwards momentum , and then pullbacks- all the while within the uptrend- define the volatility that the trader can ideally find enough swing room to make profitable trades.
The Most money is made by staying in for that long term uptrend-in an uptrending Bull market- but as the prior 6 months has shown - when the Bull turns South- the smarter money exited, locked in some of the earlier gains, and prepared to reenter at lower prices and buy more shares. Making that decision as to when to take some money off the table is what Stops are about-
Complacency get's it's just rewards.... As i can personally attest to-
What is interesting in periods of trend- is that they always come to a point of where they turn and reverse lower- reversion to the mean and all that- Not every period of trend goes into a high momentum blow-off top though- Often, it's a more subdued push higher, slight pullback, grind higher.
And , that's where also viewing a faster time frame chart may prove insightful in tightening stops, and gauging a reentry into the position- and trying to capture "more" of the swing in price. That will mean a tighter stop- more whipsaws- more reentries, and higher trading costs-commissions. And Personal time .

With some of my recent "better" trades- Bought at the turn up from the lows- the hourly chart- or I am viewing a 2 hr chart to get more past days included-
and I had some previous chart indicators and moving averages- and Parabolic Sar - tweak a fast and slower Sar by adjusting the durations, add some moving averages- use Elder Impulse bars- and Voila! - it looks interesting enough to follow . I'm using this presently to apply trailing stops as price is trending higher- I cannot foresee what will occur when the market decides to pause and readjust- This is technical tweaking needed Daily - and it is strictly based on taking notice of momentum movements and capturing a majority of that move.
Presently - as an example- the VDE position closed $84.28. I have 2 Sar trailing stop values- The Fast Sar is at $83.29 -just $1 below the closing price-
The slower Sar value is $81.44- Neither Sar value has been hit since my entry price $75.66. The difference in entry to close price is a decent $8.62 move- or 11.4%
Flip back to the daily chart- Price has gapped up today and closed above the open- but - fast stochastic has curled down to touch the slow- so it's signaling a potential peak of momentum.
So, I'm moving the stop up to the Fast Sar value- expecting it to be taken out with a lower price on 1-10 I'll stop out with the full 50 share position here- I could also use the Daily chart and trail a stop at the Fast 4 ema $82.55 to give price some wiggle room - The issue for me in executing this type of focused attention to positions is Time- Even trying to mechanize this likely will take a 10 minute per position review and stop adjustment done daily. 12+ POSITIONS = 2 HRS TIME . Since strong trending periods are not the norm, this is a time to take advantage of the strength of the trend- not to just sell early- but to tighten stops close enough to gather the max gain while allowing some wiggle room for price to continue higher- And- to hope for a small decline and the potential to reenter the position on a turn back higher and add more shares with the net profits.
If my stop gets executed at the exact stop price- (likely lower ) it represents a + $400.00 gain .

This "Feels" right - in terms of judging momentum- In using this hourly chart I also include a MACD and volume- and all are pointing to a pause in the upward momentum- which could be a sideways base- or even a slight pullback- or it could snap back higher- I feel good about trying to lock in the almost +2% DIFFERENTIAL GAIN BETWEEN sAR VALUES . Past experience with split stops often found the best stop was the tkightest stop- because the wider stop was hit for a lesser gain- The caveat here is that one has to be willing to take the reentry on a price move higher- If there is a decent pullback, the fast Sar drops below the future price reversal higher while the slower Sar can be used as a potential trailing Buy-Stop entry.

Since Photobucket went all commercial , I haven't bothered to try to find a hosting site to post a chart to illustrate ...And there's also this Time thing...but it feels good to feel engaged a bit back in a trending market and more actively involved....
I did take the time to tighten all stops as everything has fortunately moved higher today- Not entirely at Sar 1 or Sar 2- depended on the chart- gave some wider room on VHT- for example...We'll see how this plays out this week....

[sd]

I had noticed yesterday - while adjusting stops and comparing between the daily and the 2 hour chart- The stochastic reading for VDE was very high- and the fast stochastic was merging -on an up slope -with the slower stochastic. So, I had then elected to not go with the slow Sar value, and went closer to the faster Sar- and was stopped out today at $83.13. Still very much a green bar- but what is noticeable on the fast time frame- is that today's open was a gap down lower which caught my stop. Today's high was right at the Close- and testing yesterday's highs-
It looks very bullish on the fast 10 minute chart with higher volume and up moves going into the last 30 minutes up to the Close-
The fast Sar is now above price and the slower Sar value below price-and it simply appears to be a potential basing move- I could potentially see it break higher tomorrow- and the way to play this would be with a Buy-Stop higher entry- Had i set the stop at the slower Sar value, I would still be in the trade- but i also notice that the Macd has dropped below the base line and volume is low- Neither of which truly tells us what tomorrow will bring, but does suggest that the buying momentum is pausing some-
Well, that doesn't mean it's about to take a sharp reversal, bars are all green- might simply be a -catch-your breath- pause in the uphill move out of oversold territory-
Since I'm using Elder Impulse bars - red-bearish- blue - moderate action- green- bullish - that often seems to work well -combined with the trend direction... At least pay attention to a series of Red bars and ask yourself where it will stop...,.and Why am I still riding this dog lower? LOL- At least for the present period-I'm sitting in the stands feeling refreshed by this benevolent market and gracious Fed-
While reviewing a few other charts tonight- I also see a few other pauses occurring in the climb back higher- AMZN- high on my list as I still hold a lot of Red in that position. I'm down - on average- about $200/share on 5 shares- due all to my acknowledged decision to ignore the market for a time-
Technically, this is a potentially bullish flag set-up- where I have Amzn gapping up 3 days ago, but making a lower close, another lower close, and another lower close- all fairly tight- but as i review the daily chart- every past stochastic cross since September has been followed by a period of declines lower. So, a stochastic cross on the daily, and an initial red bar gap lower open, modest ,but lower recovery, Sar values exceeding the low of today- I simply will have to raise my stop-loss to today's low-
The issue with AMZN is that a $100 move can occur in 1-2 days- But, Why the pullback today? Similar pauses in many positions- but Holy Grandfather! Look at that EEMerging mkts position these past few days! Must be on steroids-! VWO is now moving up- Selling 1/3 into the open and raising the stop -on all positions-
The idea of making incremental tweaks on the stops is based on capturing a majority of the momentum move higher- and using the slow Sar seems to be a good way to capture that move while staying just an arm's length beyond average volatility-
I hope to do a better job of daily reviewing my positions and making small adjustments as needed. Thanks to the market- I'm up approx 10% from the Dec low- and am net profitable - and I think within 2% of my 2018 highs- Don't know if I'm reading the Vanguard personal performance graph correctly- But I think I'm well situated to get back ahead for 2019.
This tweaking stops in an uptrend is fun and all- and will lock in some margin of higher gains- but the true test of any type of market approach is how well the system functions over time and how well the operator executes- This relatively short period of a snap back bounce from oversold territory is rewarding- but the true test will be seen if I can execute going forward over different market conditions. (But i've still outperformed my "Professional!)

Edit: 1.11 follow up- VDE transitioned from a green bar to a lower inside Blue bar, and the stochastic is still trending up- merged fast and slow- without a dip down-
VDE is still in play as a trend continuation ....The price action is a consolidation, sideways, and caused the fast Sar to drop back below the price range- Interesting action-so - a buy-stop above the range is warranted. I was hoping for a more defined pullback and to follow the declining Sar with a lower purchase price/more shares....

[sd]

1.11- As i try to learn the nuances of viewing the 2 time frames, I have 2 separate chartlists in stockcharts with my actual positions- a Daily list and a 2 hour list-
There was a widening separation (momentum) between the Sar values- and Fast Sar-on VWO- emerging markets ETF- I commented yesterday on the big momentum, but today was a small pullback/consolidation. I had some time intraday to view the charts, adjusted a partial 1/3 stop to be closer to the price action, and it was activated and sold- for a 4.9% gain. This leaves 2/3 of the position intact- Price simply pulled back slightly to an inside tight blue bar- a pullback consolidation vs a decline-
This sets up for a further consolidation period, a move higher, or a move lower- With today's lower open and the close a flat Doji - Price is consolidating- with good volume- but I simply cannot read Volume and get a good take-a-way- With good volume, i would expect progressively higher steps up....Not necessarily so .....Wish it was that simple-
A number of other positions tended to flatten out this Friday as the market fails to put in another grind day higher-Hope to review the charts this weekend-
Been too busy to make any trades in the trading account-Saturday is a work again day....
Just got the Company IRA returns for 2018- I never bothered to look during the year-Simply my own fault- Fairly Dismal- did a whole lot of buying more shares for less though.....,What was interesting about this year's allocation was that I bought a lot into the EEM, New World perspective, and foreign exposure- as we all know- did nogt do very well this past year and is in question for survival in the 2019 Global market place- Trade wars and all that- I assume i spent the last 6 months dollar cost averaging
into a future world economy that I think will grow higher- despite the Trade wars etc....No TA involved there- or I should have bailed a long time ago....

[sd]

Testing SHAREX & Imgur

Still have to figure out how to post the actual hosted chart- Toying around with some free time this Sunday-
Attached charts- VDE both a 2 hour and a Daily chart .
I was lucky in adding a few positions during the sharp sell-off - on 12-26 Energy had been selling off for weeks- and I added some energy shares- which since rallied nicely -along with almost everything else- Not necessarily a market bottom- that will remain to be seen- but it's certainly a strong oversold bounce within the present downtrend- We are still under the Daily 50 ema and below what was viewed as a broken support level- that will present possible resistance- as a lot of money was likely lost at that break lower.260-265 on the SPY. Hopefully earnings will be good this Jan, an accomodating Fed, and perhaps we get some Gov't capable of getting on board with what is best for the US....workers and business. Despite the present recent rally, TA advocate and stockcharts Arthur Hill points out that we are still downtrending, and have a lot of room to catch up and change that trend direction....


During the Week I had off, I also reviewed charts and the obvious -now -all in hindsight- break of trend where the Daily rolled over and broke below the major emas- starting with the 50, then the 100, and then the 200- With Price of the major indexes hitting the -20% level- it was a harsher pullback than we've seen for years-
Complacency may be fine when the Tide is in one's favor-.....but perhaps it's wise to consider methods - and allocations- that would reduce the impact-going forward
When it comes to applying TA, It's perhaps too easy to read and see what supports one's belief system- so anything that looks "promising" needs to be explored in All conditions- TA signals can whipsaw when the market is not trending strongly- so Strength and direction of the present trend is a factor. Friday's market pause was reflected in most of my positions showing a slight pause, inside day. -The Elder Impulse bars had all gone green during the recent rally, and now some have turned Blue, indicating a pause in momentum- but not necessarily a reason to sell in and of itself...A pause in every trend is normal -
Daily chart uses Elder Impulse bars along with the Stochastic- When the stochastic makes a cross, it often occurs at the peak of the price move direction ally.
2 hr chart is trying to view with a closer look at Price movement, momentum, and with 2 different Parabolic Sar values to guide adjusting stop losses higher .
Goal is to allow a winning trade to run higher with momentum, and the P Sar calculates a method to gauge stop adjustments- Using a faster as well as a slower Sar provides
2 sets of values- The way I am trying to use these is experimental- While we presently have experienced a period of strong upwards trend , the application looks promising, but when the trend changes to a non-trending condition, there will be multiple whipsaw signals. Fast Sar is too volatile and close to the Price often, but may provide a good buy-stop entry level if the slow Sar gets stopped out.... I'll have to see how well I can execute - I already see that as price bases, the Sar level closes is- so the low of the price bar may prove to be the better stop.
i.imgur.com/MY7cQfj.png
i.imgur.com/PfSp31u.png
html linked image
Chart demonstrating the Par Sar
i.imgur.com/MY7cQfj.png

Trade order- 1.14- Buy-stops for VDE, vwo, and in the trading acct - smdv buy-stop $55.95 lmt $56.10 stp $54.95 premise is small caps may benefit most from no rate increase and multiu=year outperformance to Nobl.Dividend aristocrat ETF.

[sd]

Well, 4 trades today- a 1 share of free cash to VFQY-
A larger loss on a profitable trade that turned South- Taken initially in Nov. -VPU ended up rising higher as other stocks were selling- but I failed to set a stop-loss- even added as it declined- and it went lower than I anticipated- rallied a bit- and i finally got some discipline back and set the stop- took the loss-
Haven't got Sharex figured out - have to correct this another day

i.imgur.com/bKwMUYm.png

Stopped out for a gain on the remaining Vwo and VEA positions-

[sd]

1.15.19 Markets gained back a bit today-I placed new orders to reenter VWO and VEA with Buy-stops if price continues to move higher- get above that upper Sar level-
Healthcare moved up- VHT and I'm also doing a buy-stop there to add to the present position.
In the trading account, I own SMDV- small cap dividend - but offset that conservative position with a buy-stop SPLK, and ARKG-
I wish I had followed and entered ARKG when I was doing some buying over Xmas Break- it's 2 hr chart really illustrates a good example of Sar in trending periods - both in the downtrend and the reversal move higher-and a very respectable 20% move higher from the Dec lows.
Yesterday was a down day across the markets- Today seems to be an up day- I'm shifting my adds into segments -sectors -that seem to have responded the best % wise- and I was not fully weighted in VHT to begin.
In the IB trading account, I am able to place the initial order and then "attach" an additional limit sell order and a stop-loss order.
I am unable to do that in Vanguard- and Vanguard won't allow me to place orders if the after hours- Bid-Ask is outside of my order- For most of the Vanguard funds, this is not an issue - but it occurs in a few--- Also- the limited downside to the order means that I have to have a position get filled before I can initiate a stop-loss-
Doesn't fit with my work schedule demands and lack of time to view the markets during market hours-but - trading commission free by using Vanguard ETFs is a relief.
Note that IB is just $1/100 shares for most trades-

I'm attaching the ARKG chart- It has been a past position and I failed to reenter it in December- I do have a Buy-stop -should it move higher.
It's just about being a good example of the working combination during trending periods of having Elder Impulse bars and the Parabolic Sar combination-
Notice that the decent uptrend move in late Nov with a number of green bars and Sar below- Followed by a big red bar Dec 6 -going into more red bars- failed rally Dec 12, and the bars reverse back to red and blue- with both Sar values in decline overhead. Price is clearly downtrending, and the reversal on 12-24- intraday, then turned into a green bar 12-26 with the declining SAR values exceeded and the new Sar values below the now uptrending price as it moves higher- Keep in mind- that the Sar value dot is generated After the bar in the 2 hr time frame is completed- and the next 2 hr period has started. If the trade had been initiated in the $22 range, it would have stopped out in the $27.50 range-Perhaps Worth understanding for short term swing trading-

i.imgur.com/oIZoDW3.png

[sd]

1.16.19
I just read today of the Passing of John Bogle- founder of Vanguard- Truly a remarkable man- visionary- and outspoken critic of the high hidden fees that that the average mutual fund investor is charged for relatively mediocre performance over the long term.
investornews.vanguard/a-look-back-at-the-life-of-vanguards-founder/
I have read several of his books, watched some of his Youtube interviews, and he likely influenced me tremendously to question the status quo ....
Markets were up today, despite the ongoing gov't shutdown- and financials rallied on earnings-
I had 2 orders to Buy in the trading account- ARKG -which filled, and SPLK- also on a buy-stop- which filled and stopped out on the attached stop-loss.
I added back in the Vanguard account to VWO -also on a buy-stop order, and added to VHT similarly- One of the nice stockcharts features is the Summary page in your chart list- which graphs the % move - a quick way to compare what moved best that day, this week , the past month...
I'm back within a % or 2 of the account 2018 high- Largely because I had stopped out during the decline, and then put those dollars back to work - as prices declined further-
Obviously the best investments were made 12-24, 12-26 when the market had hit a momentum low- Warren style - Grit the teeth . Had I sat through the 19.8% decline- using SPY as the benchmark, Spy has recovered from its 290+ high, 230 low about 50% of the move - 260 +/- it is still $30 from it's prior high - or still down -10%.
It has made a 50% recovery on average-
My "experiment" looks promising- at least for my peace of mind- and -potentially I can execute it to at least improve and beat the results of the simple SPY benchmark.
I'm looking for Momentum through the application of simple TA , and the use of stop-losses and reentries- to capture some ALPHA- outperformance better than just 50-50-
Partly, I have to have a sense of the Macro environment - because it is all about trying to position one's self with the larger market flow-
I elected to reenter VWO immediately after just stopping out - albeit at a higher price of entry .... The difference- from where my stop was hit on a price decline- and the new re-entry as price resumes it's climb higher- that loss in price gain- - even if it's only a .5% offset, could add up to being an underperformance over the next months and numerous similar stop-outs and higher re-entries - BUT- the potential is to outperform by capturing the majority of momentum moves to the upside with tighter trailing stops and getting to take a reentry at a return to the mean- lower price- all still within the uptrend.
It looks promising so far- but is dependent on EOD Operator execution.... and involvement. Schedule still does not allow me to view much market action in real-time-
Also, I have to be cautious about the 3 day rule- on repurchasing and then selling- the same fund using assets that had not had the 3 day clearance required-
I'm not certain how a violation will affect the account over all. I expect that this will occur eventually- I've also received a notice about "freeriding" as i set a new stop on today's fill on VWO....
Today's market movers -VWO- up 1%.

[sd]

1.17.19
Markets closed higher today- despite the continued gov't shutdown- reportedly some talk of easing of tariffs helped the markets move higher-
I had one Buy=Stop order fill today- a Reentry on VEA.
In gauging momentum, today saw a lot of green- across all positions- with small caps leading -VIOO up .98 % followed by healthcare and then energy- VDE- I took gains previously in VDE and then overweighted healthcare- VHT. VDE looks ready to break upwards - but I don't have any free cash available . All Funds are in the green today and it seems that despite the potential for obstacles, the market will grind higher.
In the trading account- SPLK was stopped out for a loss- SMDV moves higher- and ARKG is in positive territory.
With everything higher today, I'm not adjusting stops- will do so Friday

Arthur Clark -stockcharts market update- He notes that the market breadth is slowing in terms of those stocks recovering- and still views this rally as an oversold bounce in the context of a likely larger downtrend- Which essentially be reversed if stocks continue higher and the 50 manages to get sloping upwards and above the 200 day ema - We're not that far away from that bullish up cross 261-on the 50, 267 on the 200- Obviously for this rally to continue- the slope of the 50 has to turn up- but we're only some 16 trading days from the very steep decline through Dec 24- we've made back- on the SPY- about 50% of the high to lows-retracement and we're entering the low side of the prior support range- that broke down mid December. Potential resistance/selling level ? We'll see if earnings and the political climate- tariff resolution, FED etc can be a positive going forward-