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Post by sd on Apr 10, 2019 19:49:58 GMT -5
4.10.19
Markets were weak and indecisive Mon & Tues... Today , the Fed consensus seems to be passive on rate increases for the year and that bolstered a modest move higher in the indexes.Account grinding a tad higher- ARKK position is relatively recent and added a 4% gain since it's addition to the portfolio.
I added my 2019 contribution to the Vanguard Roth IRA this week- but haven't selected any investments yet- For anyone that happens to read this, and has not yet started their own Roth, I would strongly encourage you to do so- and in a brokerage account , the gains are not taxable- ever- unless withdrawn early- but short term- that's not the goal of also having a Roth IRA.
I found a few short links to better encourage some of my co-workers to learn more and take that step to open their own Roth- I think Vanguard is very reasonable on the amount needed to start- and No fees if one get's electronic statements vs paper. I would also agree with others with the wise advice to start your ROTH investment portfolio first and get it established; and then open a trading account last.
Team,
I've bugged some of you about investing, and mentioned Roth IRA's- and below are some links that you may find of interest-
The advantage of planning and investing earlier in one's career-rather than later, cannot be over emphasized.... The earlier you start, you get the benefit of compounding
April 15 is the deadline to open and contribute into a ROTH IRA- Some are not familiar with the several advantages of also using a Roth for your investing future-after you 1st get your employers % match in the company IRA.
www.cnbc.com/2019/04/01/theres-a-retirement-crisis-in-america-where-most-will-be-unable-to-afford-a-solid-life.html
Roth IRA Advantages:
After getting the Employer's match in a conventional tax sheltered IRA,
Contributing after tax dollars to an individual Roth IRA is the next best step for a long term-tax free retirement account that can also be accessed earlier in life-
Earlier withdrawal without penalties after age 59-1/2, or for education....Gains are not subject to taxation etc.
www.cnbc.com/2019/03/22/millennials-are-overwhelmingly-in-favor-of-this-one-retirement-thing.html
Article explaining advantages of a Roth
www.rothira.com/blog/why-a-roth-ira-is-better-than-a-401k
As you likely know, the earlier one invests, the advantage is the benefit of compounding growth-
and it's difficult to play meaningful catch-up if one gets within a few years of retiring.
Should you choose to start a Roth IRA, I recommend Vanguard as the place to go for an easy, low-no cost way to get started.
investor.vanguard.com/search/?query=roth+ira
For someone that doesn't want to get into the details of Investing choices, selecting a Target Date Fund is a simple set it-forget it way to start.
Vanguard also offers a full set of Investing options - for those that want to get more active- Including dozens of no-commission ETFs to select from.
Should you have any questions regarding Vanguard, Their customer service is outstanding and a phone call away-
Social Security- What can you expect?_
You can also access your SS benefits on line - at the link - It only takes a few minutes to open your personal account on-line and to see what your eventual SS payment and benefits will be in the future- A good thing to do as it helps put things in perspective from a planning standpoint-
www.ssa.gov/myaccount/?utm_source=offsite&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=ocomm-eservices-fy19&utm_content=eservice
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Post by sd on Apr 11, 2019 9:43:06 GMT -5
Excellent article IRA from Clark on employing Relative Strength-as a method to limit downside , and shifting asset allocations- They cite a large number of studies that reinforce the merits of overall out performance using RS as a selection tool.
www.ccmg.com/relative-strength-valued-investment-factor/
A really good read is "The Ivy Portfolio" By Faber & French- studying outperformance
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Post by sd on Apr 11, 2019 20:46:42 GMT -5
I had to post this link because it combines 2 elements that will be part of the future of food production- I developed an interest in hydroponics for the garden looking at some introductions on You tube this spring- and built a 4' x 12' hydroponic bed- 6" deep - and just started transplanting into it-this week- Lots of interesting methods out there- tanks, tubes, barrels, pvc pipes, gutters, etc.
This 1st video - In a foreign language - puts it into the realm of commercial application that one has to see to - believe...
The Hydropnics process is fairly simple- build a frame- line it with plastic -fill it with water and a fertilizer solution, possibly aerate the water with an electric aerator - get a sheet of styrafoam insulation, drill holes at desired intervals (8") and insert plastic net cups into the holes- the net cups have a lip that rests on the styrafoam- drop in the starting plants- or seed into a mineral wool cube- and voila- A very concentrated arrangement where plants are constantly watered, access to nutrients, no weeding, etc. I've seen some impressive you tube videos of commercial greenhouses, and also aquaculture systems-but nothing to compare with this operation-
Time to reinvest in ROBO- at least there ends up some human involvement - beginning and the end...
www.youtube.com/watch?v=p6xKf2HedAA
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Post by sd on May 3, 2019 18:56:30 GMT -5
Been busy for weeks ; vacation and the home projects...Capture the squirrels in the attic; family pet with a recent diabetes-diagnosis ; now goes blind- a long story there of net getting a real accurate diagnosis and projection from the vet....Turns out 75% of animals with diabetes lose their sight within 1 year.... go figure- - and back into the work-routine- During this time, I made an appointment with our financial adviser to discuss the allocation model those small assets are invested in, and the net performance during last years sell-off and recovery this year. That meeting scheduled for next week...The Fee structure for this type of "active" oversight is a 1.70% for 'active management' including fees. So, having given it a couple of years and through a substantial market decline and following recovery, it gives a better picture of the potential performance in the eventual -someday- future recession and substantial market sell-off. While It offers the opportunity to compare my personal performance against their performance, it is also worth evaluating the "Risk" element along with the gains- I periodically employ stops, whereas the adviser does not.
Prior weeks I intentionally did not tune in to the markets except for an occasional check in the pm of the account's values- and things mostly were in a sideways range-
Finally, yesterday after 2 days of almost a -2% decline, I reviewed the charts and determined I would set stops near those Thursday lows-
I anticipated I would see another 1-2% decline as I stopped out below those lows- and perhaps would get to repurchase lower- But those expectations did not come to fruition.
Instead- the headlines " Dow jumps 190 points after unemployment falls to lowest in half century, Amazon shares gain" ....
And tech- gained 1.6%, Amzn +3.64%- Will leave the stops in place for the time being- waiting to see if we can push higher and not fall into the "Go Away in May" mindset....Stops will serve the purpose should we see a substantial pullback.
Prior to this unemployment report, the "news" that was attributed to the market's softness was that the Fed felt inflation was in check and the economy was stable-and that a rate cut was not likely. go figure- OK, todays price action upwards was a positive- but did not lead to many breakouts- Amazon did move above it's recent range. While the qqq's moved up 1.6%- still in a range- the VGT only gained +.95- and still in a sideways channel.
All in all, I'm in a holding pattern- still invested- with less than a 10% cash position- Overweight the tech sector- somewhat disappointed in the arkk position as to have not been a big outperformer- - just up 44% from the December lows compared to the Spy +27% - wish I had bought it there LOL! Lately, it hasn't been outperforming- still caught in the range....
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Post by sd on May 4, 2019 8:53:18 GMT -5
Posted this on the Horse Race page-as well-
Stock chart's Arthur Hill does a "On Trend" video backtesting the past 25 year history performance of the $SPX and backtests various exit strategies- and concludes that "Go Away in May" should be delayed until June- 30 minute video well worth viewing if one considers seasonality and some market timing - and alternately using TLT as a go-to investment- Good content at Stockcharts.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=_GM3MSR_OCE&list=PLyNJu-3PikrQuJLNphmcARRPwLHIZ2uIC
I don't know if that link is a member's only access....
The strategy looks interesting and beneficial - but perhaps some additional "tweaks" would include adjustments- based on stocks possibly weakening prior to June- or to staying in an uptrend in June-
May closes higher 65% of the time of the backtest- so it is seasonally a strong month.
My present approach with stops are tight - compared to the 20/200 crossover strategy outlined in this backtest- Waiting for the 20 ema to cross the 200 ema means price is substantially lower than the 200 ema. Spy is presently at a 294- 200 ema 275 range- A price move down would likely see price near 260 to get a 20 sma cross. Thats giving up some 35 points- or about a -10% move lower before one exits. Note how the gap is widening between the 200 ema and present trend- and waiting to reenter on an upside 20 cross- seems to leave a lot on the table - but worth considering in the long run as an approach
i.imgur.com/LZPwiOF.png
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Post by sd on May 6, 2019 18:38:27 GMT -5
Had several positions stop out today-VEA ; including the larger portion of VGT- the vanguard tech proxy.Left with approx 20% of the original position. Robo had previously stopped out and I was quite overweight tech- and still have a large exposure- ARKK funds came close but didn't hit the stop- Note that this volatility swing dropped price down to the 30 ema which had only occurred once in 2019-
While price closed up 2%, todays action broke the recent support range- and the close was back at the low side of the range.
What caused the sell-off? Dow futures were lower --400 pts this am- on international pressures- Korea firing missles- China trade indecisions etc.
i.imgur.com/xHyw8t8.png
At the present moment, it would seem that the VIX is up 20% and there is a lot of indecision based on world events.....so, raising some cash at this point may not be a bad thing-
Also, with the higher volatility and the opening lows , this also gives a level to consider evaluating as meriting a stop-loss.
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Post by sd on May 7, 2019 19:20:37 GMT -5
5-7-19 Stops getting hit as market volatility increases- ell, is this the early MAY go-away?
Met with the financial guy- Their overall approach- Hybrid annuity up 24% in 30 months with a locked in high pt- value.
The conservative portfolio account saw a peak to trough decline of just -11% during the sell-off into Dec 2018 and is (was) back to the 2018 high values-
Meanwhile, Most of my active Vanguard positions are hitting their stops and I'm down -3% in 2 days.
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ira85
New Member
Posts: 837
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Post by ira85 on May 7, 2019 20:17:01 GMT -5
I read about half of the article mentioned in the 4-11-19 note regarding relative strength investing strategies. The article is interesting, but it occurred to me the most interesting thing is where do you get the time to read and write all this stuff? You're still working full time at your day job, working on hydroponic gardening, reading investment books and articles every day, and then writing posts on Proboards.com. I get tired just writing this little paragraph. Oy vey!
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Post by sd on May 10, 2019 19:50:42 GMT -5
LOL IRA! You made me shake my head as well at times gone by and the past focus. No wheres as absorbed as I once was.....So I will share this:
As you noted- how much of the article is capable of keeping your interest...?
Yes, I go through phases of interested and involved-and periods where I simply abstain - I actually don't read books much, but i do find the occaisional SA or stockcharts article worth consideration.- often by pass my e-mail for several days- just too much other life stuff is more consequential. But in those periods of OCD , I would like to think that perhaps someone else might find some benefit in some of the information out there. and so i post it when it seems appropriate.
I think the simplest approach is often the best approach to trading-trend direction , momentum-finding sector strength - As you have done in many of your horse race picks-
Over time, as one applies one strategy, one can determine it's net effectiveness- if one is capable of implementing each and every "signal" But most of us succumb to human nature and become very discretionary in our trade decisions. These articles are potentially worth reading -not because you or I will adopt them directly- but because we can learn from them and possibly incorporate aspects of them to our advantage, progressively becoming more disciplined in our individual approach to trading. Personally, I am not comfortable with allowing a position to decline with a break of the 50 below the 200...
And therefore i essentially stopped out on the investment account at a -3% loss this week- with 90% now in cash- and a late day rally closed higher and i am not onboard.,,,
Subject for another time is Why do i bother to post in this thread at all? Boyscout syndrome - Think I may have learned something worth sharing periodically-Maybe someone else could find something beneficial...
This forum is the only social media content I use- Don't do FB or Linked -in- or any of the others-and writing has always been a past-time- Helps me sort things out.... I just tend to over do it.....verbose.
Time allocation is always an issue- Gardening is a hobby I've done for years- hAD A HEART-TO-HEART with my employer and expressed that I felt I was working too many long days and many Saturdays-
and the work demand is now primarily 5 days a week- Much appreciated. I'm fortunate to have an employer that understood my concerns and didn't simply turn me out to the pasture...
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Post by sd on May 11, 2019 7:31:08 GMT -5
Markets put in a bit of a late day recovery Friday- I was at the day job and don't follow the markets intraday- But I've been stopped out on the majority of my investments as well as in the trading account-
Net decline from the recent prior week high of about 3%- Since the markets have been flat recent weeks, I had expected the good employment growth to be able to push everything higher- But the spectre of a global tariff war took the winds out of that sail. My rate of return for the past 1 year is + 9.7%- most of that attributed to trying to overweight tech as well as stopping out during the Fall decline and then stepping back in and buying shares at cheaper prices. Good sale 12-24-18, and I had a fair % of cash . Presently, I now think that the market seems to be tenuous -, and so I'm not rushing to jump back in based on a one day attempted recovery. If the markets rally higher- I'll have locked in my -3% decline- Should the markets drop lower, I will potentially get to purchase at a discount.
I also met with my financial adviser-this week- Several years ago, didn't care how the company IRA was being managed/ charged through Edward Jones-Only American Funds available-and elected to roll over those assets-
A portion I put in Vanguard to self direct, and a portion I handed over to a local Fiduciary adviser that uses Equis Capital management with institutional funds- (It wasn't all that large a $$$ amount per se-). They also convinced me that having a portion of those assets in an annuity- would be recommended- and, while they disliked many annuities -but had some they felt were well worth devoting a portion of my funds into. I took a leap of faith- and went with their recommendations- The total Expense ratio for the funds and the "active" management seemed to be a high 1.70% They set up my account a bit more conservatively than my spouse's- While both accounts had decent gains going into the summer of 2018-the active management and asset shifting they did saw my spouse's account decline -11% peak to trough, and my account -9% Pk-Trough while the $SPX- decline exceeded -19%-- And that's a good measure to see how an account performs during periods of higher market volatility- Conventional investments ride the entire roller coaster peak to bottom...
What was particularly interesting - is the return on the Hybrid Annuity- in just 30 months, it gained 50% in net benefit value- with a guarantee that it will not decline - The cash surrender value - should we close it out early (before 10 years) -is a paltry 4% gain- But, it is not intended to be a capital gain trading vehicle- It will likely increase substantially in accumulated value ...and that will become the basis of the monthly withdrawals -for life- when we elect to start dipping into it in the future retirement years. Note that there are a lot of annuities -Fixed, variable, and hybrid- that are complex and potentially expensive to get into, a big bonus for the salesman.... and some with extraordinarily high fees So, Caveat Emptor- I also listen periodically to Ric Edelman - who I think does not like annuities- so- be sure that your adviser is a true fiduciary and steers you straight- One thing that is beneficial is to meet or talk (for Free) with several professional advisers; not just one-early in your path to preparing to be "financially secure"- Wish I had done so 20 years earlier...
Lots of resource information from both of these advisers:
radio.edelmanfinancialengines.com/
www.capitalfinancialusa.com/
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Post by sd on May 13, 2019 18:28:19 GMT -5
Big sell day today- China talks not coming together- talk about greater tariffs- with China also instituting larger tariffs-
Seems like this will not be a win-win for anyone- and possibly could lead to greater instability.
Glad to have been stopped out on the largest % of my positions earlier last week- Should have paid more attention, and looked earlier- but VPU- Utilities are in the green for the past week- and TLT-
Buying both tomorrow.
There was also news about 4 large oil tankers damaged by sabotage-bomb? at the hull- any disruption in the flow of the vorld energy supply could certainly boost energy prices.
Tech -as in VGT is down -10% from it's recent high- and price has now closed below the 50 ema. I kept 20% of the VGT position- but will sell that at the open -except for a 1 share tracking position. Will the markets rally tomorrow or this week? Totally no way to be determined- but I'll be comfortable with the decision -
VGT has made an aggressive move since the beginning of the year 160-215 high- and a pretty vertical climb. Prior to this past week, we only had 2 red daily bars back in March- so we've certainly come a long way and perhaps this will be the reversion in price?
i.imgur.com/PH0b1Bt.png
5-25-19 Memorial Day weekend- short update- Markets tried to rally a bit, since the prior entry, but failed- Still a lot of trade concerns with tariffs-
The decision to Hold a larger cash position at this period shows that I hadn't missed out...
i.imgur.com/hrrcdeP.png
TLT defensive position had a nice gap up move , VPU is steadily climbing higher....
i.imgur.com/AGNZyY4.png
i.imgur.com/mk9b2yt.png
While both of these positions were taken as defensive allocations,and both have moved higher; a larger cash position is sitting on the sidelines presently.
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Post by sd on May 27, 2019 18:58:24 GMT -5
Memorial day- Time to remember those that sacrificed so that our freedoms are possible.
Father served in WW2, and a great uncle in the navy in the South pacific whose battleship was torpedoed, He spent 24 hours floating with sharks when his ship went down- Waiting to be pulled down under like a number of his fellow sailors. These are the memories that pass with time .....People forget what was at stake and become complacent with the social rewriting of history....and now we make new laws of proper etiquette for engagement on the battlefield....Go figure- social justice warriors want to make WAR civilized..... If that's not an Oxy-Moron.....
To Don, To Leo, and the hundreds of Thousands that answered the call to duty- We today live free and can be thankful they served for Us.
Outstanding weekend with the Family - time spent in relaxing, boating, tubing, fishing- and building memories-
Fish relatively unscathed, but as they say - a bad luck day fishing is better than a good day working- ....
With a larger cash position in place, not a lot to be focused on and no FOMO....
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Post by sd on Jun 5, 2019 17:24:39 GMT -5
The headlines:Dow rallies 200 points as stocks surge for a second day on hope the Fed will cut rates
PUBLISHED WED, JUN 5 2019 2:37 AM
Tuesday the market rallied on some Fed statements saying the markets will be supported despite tariffs etc.
I went ahead and put in some Buy-Stop orders after reviewing charts- The Buy stop orders- with limits- filled, all were above yesterday's closing price- Most filled at a higher open and all closed slightly lower.
For most of the positions I took partial size entries-
I did go ahead with a full position in VFVA- Vanguard value, so I'm approx 40% invested .l TLT stop hit locking in profits. VPU is now back in profitable territory after almost pulling back into negative territory
June 7 Update- Markets moved up to close the week higher- with the exception of the VFVA position- Vanguard value fund- just stalled.
The present upside moves will allow me to adjust stops closer to protect my entry cost.
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Post by sd on Jun 25, 2019 19:43:25 GMT -5
It's been about 3 weeks since a last post- I just updated and tightened stops yesterday- Recent market influences- Fed reiterating they will do what it takes to accomodate the markets-0 Hard to try to fight that mate! Ahh- and then there is the ongoing political discourse and possible issues with IRAN sanctions, a drone being destroyed by IRAN, and the potential threat of US retaliation....Which Trump prudently called off as not being equitable- Iranian lives for an un manned drone- Good Call Imo. Trump still has my vote in 2020.!
i tightened stops and today was taken out of VGT- $207.97 fill . locked in some gain- all of my recent entries had seem some upside- but tightening stops seemed prudent. I had also added some buy-stops to add to positions in VGT today that were not taken. We'll see where this takes us, but most of the stops will execute for net gains, incrementally adding to YTD tooth and nail.
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Post by sd on Jul 27, 2019 18:27:23 GMT -5
Haven't taken the time to post trades- life happens and priorities shift- and I've shifted in my market approach- presently still 75% invested after a period of jump into cash-
Saw a very interesting NFLX movie- "The Great Hack" about Cambridge Analyticia use of data collectiuon to target informative adds designed to influence political elections- Just one step below the targeted advertising you see on your social networks that may follow your search on line- Slippery slope for those that are engaged with their devices . The documentary is worth looking at - likely biased - but informative- Come away with the "Trust Nothing " as it is tailored to influence your perspective.
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