SD'S 2019 RAMBLINGS

[sd]

8-5- quick update-
All in Cash-Again- I had tightened stops last week after the one day break of the mkt range- and all positions stopped out-
Actually turned out to be a net wash for most of the Vanguard funds I had gotten back into -late June or early July- Captured some decent gains in the ARKK funds though-held in the Vanguard acct- YTD port performance is just 12% , Note that -As of today- Spy is at a 16% return for the year, and the q's @ 20% . That includes the recovery from a -10% decline in MAY-
So, the Buy and Hold "investor" would be well ahead of my active- go to cash- get safe- performance by a considerable margin- unless there is another major pullback -
In 2018, market lost 19% - going into Dec 24- A very unusual decline % wise- and a snap back recovery- Fortunately, I had been positioned in cash and started to buy back -in -partial positions- Dec 24, and 12-26 went in % wise large - Should this pullback gain momentum, I will again start to buy in at -10%
EDIT- 8.6.19- Taking a look back- beyond the YTD- net performance average for SPY going back to Jan 2 -2018 is just above 6%- 2018 actually lost -5% on the year. Note the attached chart that also illustrates the almost -20% decline from the Aug 2018 highs. i.imgur.com/exwsTYq.png

This longer term view -coincides with the momentum concept- which I've tried to employ- overweighting sectors in favor- AND UNDER WEIGHTING SECTORS OUT OF FAVOR.
While the market is now in the longest bull run in history - it will continue to feel that there are many reasons to think the bottom will drop out -any day, for any reason. I'm not expecting a market crash- despite the doomsayers- Unless the democrats win in 2020-
Yes, i don't post here (or anywheres) with any regularity anymore- Made a shift in priorities- trying to achieve a better work-life-family- balance . I explain to my co-workers- We work in order to provide a certain quality of life for our family- Often we determine that to be the income we bring in -that's easily defined- as a numeric value- but we must also consider whether that comes at a cost of family time together-
I should note-here , Trading-investing- had been a big free time focus of the past 20 years- but keeping a separate and continued investment approach was the right approach for me- I can retire with my investment account- and stay in touch with my trading account- For anyone that happens to scan this thread, I would encourage them to invest consistently- and to fund a separate trading account- Don't merge the two-
Allow your trading account to earn it's own way with your trading prowess bringing in those big gains- The investment account just works over time to compound- and Compound ....and comp- OK- given that you start earlier in life- it will compound multiple times- For those that choose to put off starting the retirement account until age 55 because of Life's expenses- college tuition for the kids etc the bigger house, the better cars , the credit card debt etc- they need an intervention- Start early, if need be start small- but be consistent and continue-and increase over time % wise as your income rises,.Retire early and Rich....

[sd]

Chart of GOOG- Wife's Position was sold on a tight stop the day before the gap up- Note the uptrend is still intact per the trend line......with a significant pullback from the earnings gap high-Close to the April trend high- but failed to challenge it....
i.imgur.com/eYvakm8.png-
While the price action of the past 2 days suggests the markets may have over reacted- that yet remains to be seen.

[sd]

I ended up getting stopped out across the board last week- including in the Vanguard IRA.
In the company IRA, For the past 18 months I had my allocations with a foreign focus - funds with exposure to Europe and the "New World"-Asia, India etc. These are mutual funds that we are limited to invest in-Which is why I had rolled out of the company IRA several years ago- .... Over the past 18 months, my weekly contributions and the company match went towards monthly purchases- dollar cost averaging in - in both declines and uptrends- The money was distributed over 5 funds- The YTD returns are net 13%, for 2019 after a large swing down in 2018 - but the net long term average becomes a disappointing 2.79 %- just 1/2 of the SPY return for the US markets in the net 6% for that same longer period-
I had decided to reduce my exposure to the foreign markets as the trend lines are all similar- struggling to get higher- and fortunately sold 2/3 at the Tuesday close, caught a little bounce.
The issue with the fund account- is that -American Funds- will limit Fund exchanges to less than 5k - or it will lock the account in that fund for 30 days- Not to my liking- and you cannot have stop-losses or limit orders- as these funds only trade at the closing price at the End of Day- and do not trade intraday- This is why ETF's are so much more beneficial -IMO - lower costs, low expenses. and trade intraday.

I read an article this past week that again indicates that the vast majority of active fund managers continue to underperform the markets- particularly gets even worse over the longer term -Despite periods of volatility, where active managers are supposed to excel- The long term outperformance at lower cost of the passive investor seriously exceeds the benefits of hiring an active investor.
Same is true with those of us that try market timing- we get an average of 1/2 the gain of the markets- Until we may see a decline like in 2008

Copying my post from 8-14 horse race-
Yesterday's market rally left me feeling I should have put some buy-stops in place to get back-in- But fortunately - my indecisiveness proved to work in my favor with today's large whipsaw market sell-off-
"Dow tanks 800 points in worst day of 2019 after bond market sends recession warning". " its worst percentage drop of the year and fourth-largest point drop of all time "

I think this type of knee jerk volatility tells us that the markets were poised to sell-regardless-Markets rallied because the tariff increase was delayed a few months- and the yield curve inverted suggesting a recession will be in our future- potentially distant future- as it is not an immediate omen- Note this article:
www.cnbc.com/2019/08/14/stock-markets-wall-street-in-focus-amid-earnings-economic-data.html Particularly the part where markets indeed have rallied after an inversion- and a recession eventually followed....6 mos to 2 years later.....
Today's price action supported short positions------
I haven't taken any active short positions- I cannot monitor mkts daily- I would have been whipsawed with yesterday's rally- The predominant recent trend is still technically up- higher lows- Despite the headlines...

[sd]

Second guessing myself presently, with markets lower, but trying to make some headway, I crept out of the cash position from last week and did some buying today- I went back in broadly- through ETF's -partial positions- Vanguard mostly, but also back into ARKK, ARKQ -well off their recent highs-
While it looked like the market was poised this am to try to rally from yesterday's "Historic" loss on the Dow, (-800 pts) 4th time in history to sell that much- Today's price action is not a signal to jump back in with both feet! I felt OK willing to dollar cost average taking initial new positions at this discounted level- knowing we likely can go much lower- Remember last August- and then the choppy decline where we finally dropped to almost -20% from the Aug highs in December? My 1 year performance is net +10% -long term just 8.2% -Nothing to crow about - but it's what you hang onto that counts- Still ahead of the "Market" in terms of the combined 2 + years- but trying to TIME the market's pullbacks is at best difficult- particularly as it tends to snap back higher and leave one chasing- This volatility is largely due to political wrangling with China and Exports- and Trump's tweeting- May turn out to be a positive in the long run- but it has the markets in a state of concern-
Overall broad exposure- VWO, VOOG, VGT,VNQ,VPU,VFVA-VFMF,VFQY,ARKQ,ARKK-
I altered the position sizing- in full with VPU,VNQ as they held up well during the recent weakness- and perhaps too heavy on ARKK and VGT- technology .
We'll see- over the longer term, Tech has been the leadership and i have overweighted that segment.
We're still not down to that prior June low . On a 1 year performance chart- VGT is still up with over a +12% return-
Comparing the major indexes- and ARKK- they are presently in the +2-+6% range for the past 1 year performance.
Overall, my 1 year to date- +10% Vanguard account performance has "beaten" the market- largely due to some lucky market timing- and trailing stops I need to add.
I've owned ARKK and several other Ark Funds and they have contributed to the largest % gain in my holdings- They are also the most volatile in swings though. Over the course of this past year
I'm a fan of their focus on innovative technologies in different market arenas.
Don't normally have time to take a break and view the mkts

[sd]

Market putting on a decent come-back rally- Up 1-2% and so I should be solidly in the green on my purchases- Most importantly, With today's higher reaction I can view the Wed Low as a drop dead-stop out here- Presently I am not adding more into the mix today-

[sd]

8.16
Thoughts -I went back in to the market yesterday at the open- with about 1/3 of my free cash and my wife's also partially back in. Nice 2 day gains.....
Baba is a different bet than Goog-imo. Baba is both a bet on the tariff/China trade being modified and tech-Baba is likely a better value and has more growth ahead.- particularly on better China- USA trade. Notice that Baba has put in an earlier & greater move up than either Goog or the qqq's.
With today's big move, I would think on Monday it will potentially see some backfilling- perhaps down to 172- even down to 168 on any market softness. Hard to suggest a stop at these levels- perhaps 159- under that pullback low. but that's pretty wide- unless you get a new pullback low this week.
Check out the stockcharts chart I sent-
You noted "I sold all of my BABA position on 8/6/19 for 157.5. Right away I realized that I made a mistake and considered to pick some back. Before I took action, the opportunity passed" The question I would ask is How did the opportunity pass? Because of price?
Note that a $1.00 difference in a fill on a $100 stock is just 1% on a $1,000.00 stock , it is just .10% a very negligible amount-
When I put in a limit order during mkt hrs, I always bid higher than the ask price that I see.
That said, defining your Risk is important % wise-
Look at BRKB - It has a bottom base here- 195.50 and a possible buy-stop entry would be $201.25- The difference is less than $6 - and that means the risk is $200/6 = 3%-
I cite this as an example of knowing your Risk- where your Stop will be placed vs your entry-
I don't like Goog's lack of recovery here- It has definitely "filled " the gap from the breakout @ $1150.
Just as certain as I tell you that $1150 was penetrated on the decline- it now sets the standard for that level as one to not see exceeded again- Note that price may penetrate- but closing prices tell the better story.
While it sounds like a lot to lose- in terms of $$$- think of it in terms of % and what portion of your portfolio is affected- Let's review:
"Now I am stucked with 1240 GOOG and 1194 GOOGL. No more purchasing power in my trading account."
Entry at 1240 and a stop at 1150 loses $90 per share so- 90/1240 is a 7% loss. Not too severe.
Entry at $1194 and a stop at $1150 loses 44/1194 so it's a 3.7% loss- pretty tight .... If both positions are the same size- they average out to about a net -5% loss.

The issue with stops is it takes discipline to execute them - Your psychology -and mine- works to confound us with the Hope that eventually we will be made whole- - It confirms that the trade goes against you, and you lost on that trade- The siren song of holding without stops is that price may eventually return to where it exceeds your entry price and you can exit with a gain- albeit a small one perhaps- but it's psychologically satisfying none-the -less vs taking an early & larger loss. A real trader- evaluates his entry based on where he will set his stop and take his loss- and understands what part of his portfolio is at Risk in each trade- Note that individual trades do not live on individual islands- Trades generally move with the swing in the market that affects sectors or larger indexes- so 5 tech trades potentially Risking 2% of the larger portfolio value actually is putting -10% at Risk because it is in the same sector- That said , most of the markets are now highly correlated- Momentum is an active force with the tide flowing in to support the majority- or receding and leaving little pools of support behind-
Money has value-and even time value- 2.5% ..... when it is held in a declining account- it not only loses the net dollar value- it loses an average of -2.5% of purchasing power every year.. So, if you buy stock ABC at $100.00 and it goes down to $80 and you did not sell- you've had a 20% decline- If it takes 1 year to get back to $100 and you then sell thinking you are breaking even, you are mistaken- The COLA- averages 2.5% per year- (Cost of Living Adjustment)= purchasing power of our monies held in cash lose value- SS provides a COLA increase annually based on their measurement of average inflation.)
We can often deceive ourselves in our reckoning because we do not actually track our profitability as a true business is accounted for. It is easier to recall the winning trade vs the losing trade- That's just human psychology at work- After expenses- and missed opportunities- and losses and gains- what is our net portfolio return?
It's likely not as impressive as we would like to think it is- due to selective focus. We need to measure ourselves vs a benchmark of some sort - and tally the final results over a longer period of time to determine if we are truly succeeding or would be better to become passive investors- Which is true for 85% of active "professional" managers.
I digressed- but thought it worth a mention-
I will post this in my relatively inactive strategies thread.
SD

[sd]

The Risk to Reward is a simple- but important concept to understand-
Risk to reward is the ratio -comparison of what your % loss may be on any trade compared to where you would expect to set a sell target.
If you plan to Buy stock ABC at $100.00 and your stop-loss is $95, and your target Sell is $105- The Risk to Reward ratio is 1:1. This is a minimal trade scenario- The stop loses $5, and the limit sell gains $5.
If you Buy at $100, stop is at $95 and sell is targeting a higher resistance level at $110.00 , that is 1 Risk for 2x reward- 1:2- the odds are improved for your longer term trading success if you target a minimum of capturing 2x or 3x what your Risk is.
Consider if your trading is "average"- like the flip of a coin- - you have 50% winning trades, and 50% losing trades. and a 1:1 R:R - you will not make any money over time.
If your R:R target is 1:2- and you have 50% wins, 50% losing trades- your winning trades offset your losing trades- and you still have made money- even if your win rate is only 50%
Conversely, If you take small gains and hold wider stops- your win rate to breakeven needs to increase greatly- One or 2 large losers can wipe out a larger number of small gains easily.
Same example- Stock ABC -you Buy at $100.00 and set a $95.00 stop loss (-5R) . The stock goes up to 102.50 and you sell to cash in-lock in the small gain. Your R:R is 1: .5
Means that you will have to have only 1 losing trade for every 2 winning trades to offset the eventual losing trades occurring- which they always do-
That is why i would encourage allowing winning trades some room to run- higher- The goal is to have greater % gains than % losses.
It also applies to the concept of your total trading account- If one trade without a stop loses 30%, it offsets the 6 winning trades that were closed at the +5% level.
While big runners are not the norm- they can occur only if you allow them to do so-
I don't advocate allowing them to breakdown just to stay in the trade- But- capturing just the one winning trade up +30% offsets 6 losing trades-
Make sense?
Also to be considered is the "position size"- How much are you Risking as a % of your total account value-on any single trade?
And - how much of the account can be risked on any individual trade? How much is at Risk with Margin?
I would say that 5% of the account value at Risk in any single trade is the maximum that should be at Risk- and that is a very high % 1-2% was recommended to me years ago to help survive the learning curve- Still learning today though- market is everchanging. As we also know- a -5% stop-loss may fill at a much lower level-
For those with smaller accounts- $2,500.00 average- a 5% Risk would be $125.00. Assuming they are targeting a 1Risk to 2 Reward - They would make $250.00.
However, If they target just 1 trade with their entire account value- That's putting it all at Risk and that is unacceptable- as we know, Stocks can gap way down overnight exceeding that 5% loss- So, the goal is to have no one trade put the majority of the account at jeopardy.
For those with larger accounts, it is easier to diversify multiple trades, and also to see less Risk % per trade. Everyone has to develop their own ratio for position sizing-
For the learning curve- I would say that accounts under 5k - about $1,000.00 per trade until they develop consistency- 10k - about $2,000.00 20k + - 4k average
The "Learning Curve"- suggests that one target their wins-losses ratio- and be somewhat uniform in the trade exposure with Risk and attempt reward-
Some choppy markets- like present day- will whipsaw stops and it's important to recognize when there is a time to sit on one's hands-One has to have enough trades under their belt to understand what seems to work for them and Whether that time is present day- or down the road....
In Baseball, a player that gets on base 50% of the time would be outstanding.
In trading, 50% winners would also be outstanding- or 40% even- as long as the RR ratio was above 1:1. 1:1.5 1:2 etc .
As you do your trades, I would recommend that you also record your Risk and % portfolio Risk- as well as your hoped for target -reward.
That simple exercise will increase your awareness of what is at stake, and assist you making better calls on prospective trades-
also posting in strategies thread fwiw.

[sd]

8.19 premarket Notes

With the weekend past, the more logical heads seem to prevail- and the markets are poised for a higher open- The actual ingredients for a recession do not seem to be looming any time soon- just the fear factor causing such a market reaction last week on the 10yr crossing 2 yr -or vice versa-
This suggests that we may-potentially- see a push back to the prior levels- as a logical target-a lot will depend on earnings- and the expectation Now that the Fed will cut again in September- And- a potential for trade talks/tariffs to come to some resolution - This up move may be short lived-have to see ...
With that I've added some orders today to put our accounts majority invested.
Overweighting Tech- VGT; Real estate VNQ, S&P -VOOG- with exposure to other indexes and Asia.Also ARKK funds for innovation.
This recent swing low is the logical stop-loss placement .
Actually taking a spec buy-stop trade on a greater pop in GE, and Ira's Horse race pick this week-EDPH has had a multi-year run up - solar industry- must be the sector leader- based on it's rapid growth- haven't had time to drill down to compare - taking a few minutes-early break at work to note this.
Back to the reality- day job-

[sd]

8.19 Note- Neither of my Buy-stop orders filled- EDPH gapped over my limit, and GE -chart showed it hit my buy-stop- but was not activated by IB? Odd;, as IB is very efficient-
- Added to the Vanguard positions -Cancelled the GE order- Buying CME .8.20.

[sd]

8.23.19 Markets sold off from 2.3 - 3% today across the indexes- My GDX order was gapped over, and I'm down on CME and ROKU positions, as I had somewhat wider stops-
I got sloppy in the Vanguard accounts- The IRA stops executed along with several lower limit buy orders- Added into VPU and holding VNQ- reits
I failed to raise stops in the Roth in Vanguard- Holding several large (% wise) ARKK, ARKQ, Only myself to blame, trying to do things in a rush....Still a bit of profit in ARKQ, and breakeven in the others- but I'm vulnerable to a deeper sell on Monday. Still Up for net gains this 3rd qtr of +2% - but I could have improved that number by being more focused-and too busy on the day job to review.
Have to admit that I think President Trump has overplayed his tweeting hand- attacking Both Powell- and China with higher tariffs- I think a lot of this market reaction is ALL a knee jerk to the President tweets. I don't think this economy should be that puppet string manipulated by the President I voted for- Perhaps he thinks this is the "Bigger Deal" at stake- and that History will prove him to be right- perhaps so-
In the mean time, this fuel for market volatility shakes investor confidence. Arthur Hill pointed out this week that while some stocks/sectors are holding the uptrend, a larger % are showing weakness.
Presently, I am trying to be more defensive- by adding into utilities and reits. Will consider some limit order buys at lower levels. Historically this is a weak period for the stock markets-

[sd]

8.27-markets start with a rally and sell-off Raised my stops on the Roth based onm the recent lows- A larger cash position looks to be the smarter way to approach this market- be conservative and less % at risk.....I'm willing to get kicked to the sidelines- and see what ensues- and not get whipsawed int the tweets and headfakes-

[sd]

Had a few minutes to compare the performance of the stock market- AKA the S&P 500 -- using SPY , and the more defensive sectors- where I am shifting some positions in the IRA account, and stopped out on my tech holdings-
Considering that the "market " peaked a year ago- and we are just about flat, certain other defensive market segments have really outperformed-

The 2 year comparison shows Tech up over 40%, Spy up 28%+- but then compare that to this past year's performance-
i.imgur.com/LL1l8rf.png

In the attached 1 year chart is the SPY- light blue -lowest line- followed by VOOG- The Vanguard proxy to try to outperform Spy, and then the defensive sectors- real estate, utilities, staples all strongly outperforming.

What is also interesting is the depth of decline into December seen by Spy, Voog, Tech (VGT)- They all had a substantailly steeper decline than the other "safer" sectors- and look at the 1 year outperformance- with lowly utilities leading the way.
If I only knew a year ago that holding the S&P 500 would give a 2% return over the year- with greater volatility- But we all know -in hindsight-
Getting back to the momentum thesis of Brian Livingston- and stockcharts sector rotation RRG graphs-
i.imgur.com/4R4ptdt.png

[sd]

Systematic Trading to Improve Results-
In discussing trading with a friend, I noted that the goal should be to stay with the trend as long as possible- Well, that's open to interpretation, as to one's comfort level of holding a position and seeing profits decline- Arthur Hill has a good backtested study in the Systems Trading series he writes in stockcharts- Uses a RSI and a slow AROON 65- but the results capture the vast majority of longer term trends and the system definitely outperforms over the backtest- His hold and exit allows price to pullback -all within the uptrend still being intact- Hill has a number of backtested approaches- As with any system trading, one has to adhere to the strategy and not try to use discretion as to how to react- I felt the allowed pullback was pretty wide, so, I wanted to verify if a rules based approach could be generated by using the moving averages and Elder Impulse signals- One that would lend itself to capturing shorter term trending trades and have a provision to stop out earlier-.
Elder Impulse Bars generate colored bars- Green for upside Momentum, Blue for slow, and red for declining.
Moving averages provide a graphic representation of the momentum direction-
Is the momentum to the downside, sideways, or to the upside?

Like all things involving TA, it needs to be taken in context and considered how the results would be over many interpretations.

My initial take-away of the Elder Impulse bars would suggest that they cannot guarantee a successful trade- Obvious statement-
A Green bar can be taken as a positive move higher- but in what context? If the stock is in a downtrend and decline - will all the Emas inverted- an attempted higher move will generate a green bar- particularly intraday- but that green bar may not find the follow through to see that a bottom has been made- So, jumping in early on a single green bar may be imprudent-
ADD in a requirement that the green bar Close has to be accompanied with the 4 or 5 ema crossing above the 10 ema-
Also- downtrends have the momentum in their favor- so any entry should initially be on a reduced position size- or not taken until it is clear that the trend up has resumed. Once the trend is clearly moving higher- position size on the entry can be increased-

If the 1st entry signal is a green bar Close with the 4 ema above the 10 ema- this can be subjective if price is trading in a sideways range- Stop would have to be below the low of the range, or confirmed with a change based on an uptick cross in the stochastic, RSI, or Aroon indicator-- and not taken literally out of context- Finding a secondary confirmation to support the move and to confirm the entry based on a next day limit buy would be prudent-
There will be failed entries- based on where the stop is set- In established up trends- the probability is in one's favor - Not so in down trends seeking a momentum reversal higher-It is a lower probability trade-

In the overview over a year- stocks will have a period of trend, then a pause, potentially a pullback- and yet the trend can still be considered to be an uptrend as long as the pullback lows are successively higher- and the highs are also reaching new highs- The trader that captures - and stays with the majority of the winning trend cycles- and takes the pullbacks as small losses on raised stops- protects the majority of his profits. During non-trending periods- whipsaws will occur if one simply takes the green bar signal by itself.

Ultimately, the goal is to totally disregard the intraday price movements-as much Noise- don't even watch- and make a decision only at the End Of Day-- EOD-
In todays markets with Tweets moving government policy, it bcomes difficult to separate the reality from the noise. so perhaps step aside...
Since I use emas- I find it useful to apply a 4, 10,20,30,50 and perhaps 100--
It's amazing how strong trending stocks can hold above a very fast 4 ema- for many days. and - when momentum slows- price bars can then penetrate the slower 10 ema- Because the 10 ema is very close- and a pause in the momentum is normal and to be expected, react to the bar that penetrates the 10 ema by raising a stop-loss to the 20 ema under that bar- or if it is a wide bar- set a stop to the low of that bar-depending on one's aggressiveness.
For the goal of becoming a better trader- holding a winning position for the greater % gain is logical....Understanding that taking quick small profits on trending stocks is counter productive.
Having a point of reference to stay long a winning trade- and a point at where to be stopped out- is what is the basis for developing a systematic approach.

This starts with the basic precepts of entry and exit rules- and then one can choose to expand or contract the broad guides one uses- I think I should apply broader approaches to the investment IRA and stay tactical with the trading IRA. There are 2 different concepts at work with the 2 different approaches- Difficult to not merge both.

Attached charts using the Elder Impulse and some emas- what is notable is that the trending periods can be quite long when momentum is in play- and the potential for a larger gain - is there for
those willing to stay the course and not take a quick profit-

Ultimately, we digress to make impulse decisions- often based on the news of the day- and fail to realize we are reacting to passing momentary influences- That is why one would allow the price momentum to pause and drop to where it may touch or penetrate the 10 ema; This is the "Noise Factor" that the market often brings- and also the flexibility in trying to not apply stops that are too aggressively tight. AS LONG As the predominant trend is rising!

i.imgur.com/LWDmZfX.png

Ira's pick this week also lends itself way to this approach- PFSI
While this may not be the best answer to one's systematic trading- it's a good starting point from where to step forward-
Too rigid a system will result in numerous whipsaws- So , the goal is to devise a moderate approach that will capture profits and protect from an extreme drop to the downside


i.imgur.com/AADoLqa.png

[sd]

Tuesday 9-3-19 Markets in the RED- and I was not considering AMZN- Saw the upgrade news and AMZN responding well despite the softness in the markets today. Bought a couple of shares @ $1797.10
and added to the ROKU position .

"Shares of Amazon rose 1% after RBC Capital Markets said the e-commerce giant’s stock will rally nearly 50% in the coming year thanks to the roll-out of “Prime One-Day Shipping.” RBC raised its price target on Amazon to $2,600 a share."

With the news as a potential catalyst, and the stock near a sideways range low- $1740 low - it provided a relatively low Risk entry- With the bottom range at $1740, and a stop just below that @ $1730,
The RISK is $67.00/1797 = 3.7 % trade Risk for a single share . To calculate my position size Risk- 2 shares @ $1797.00 = $3,594.00 the combined risk is 2shares x $67.00 = $134.00 if executed at the stop price . To calculate my portfolio Risk of this trade, I take the Risk value, and divide by the trading account value = 134/10,000.00 = a 1.34 % account Risk - This is a very acceptable -low % Risk if I stop out at or near my stop-loss.
Another aspect to consider is what % this trade amount comprises of the account value- 3,594/10040 = 35.94 so this one trade is approx 1/3 of the account value .
ROKU comprises $4,677.00 and - almost 46% of this account value, which is a high % to Risk in a single position. Since Roku had already gained profits on the initial entry 20 shares, , my stop-loss with the increased 10 is now trailed at a combined breakeven- @ $142.00 and price at present is $156.00 and trending well, holding steadily above the rising 4 ema - and not coming back to the 10 ema in over 3 weeks.
i.imgur.com/ljafyGE.png

i.imgur.com/5PHCGhG.png

ROKU - impressive ability to trend for weeks and months from $30 to $150 - Wow- Too late to enter? Perhaps- That was likely thought when it went from 30 to 60- Trend is your friend- until it ends!
i.imgur.com/t3tbTHJ.png

[sd]

aS A FOLLOW-UP TO THE Elder Impulse Bars in a strong trend-
What happens before a strong trend ever gets started?
Elder Impulse bars are generated even in simple sideways ranges, and minor fluctuations- and can generate green bars that simply become failed trades.
One method to reduce the failed trades would be to add an oscillator or strength mechanism into the charts -
In the following example- I've added an RSI 10 above 65 and a stoch-RSI 40 above the .75 level- which ignores many of the green bars generated in the sideways range-
These do not all result in winning trades- but do improve the whipsaw false signal entries- Some of this can clearly be adjusted by recognizing when price is trading range bound-
As a contrary trade entry- coming out of oversold provides an early risk to reward

i.imgur.com/HktiVa7.png