SD - TRADING/INVESTING FOR 2018

[sd]

Did not get the pullback I hoped for- I am canceling my lower limit orders, and having to reenter as the market turns higher-
Ideally, with a stop-loss approx 2-3% below the active price, you would see a -5% or greater decline in order to take advantage of a reentry at a lower point than where it was sold.
This fact validates the statistic I have heard in the past- that active retail traders only manage to get approx 50% of the market's return compared to those that Buy and Hold=
As I approach my "Golden Years"- I chose to diversify - and so I have a relatively small amount of assets that are under active management, assets through my employer- assets that I rolled out of my employer's IRA into a personal Vanguard IRA, Roth IRA, and a few dollars in an IB account for active spec trades.

Both yesterday and today, I elected to go Long - and to reduce my diversification- and overweight those areas that have momentum in their favor-
Compared to having a diversified portfolio- I am electing to overweight those areas that are showing greater upside momentum- An example of this approach: My broad health care Etf through Vanguard VHT to the healthcare sector did not hit any stops- I added to the position . Additionally, I noted that the medical device sector- IHI is on a strong up trend- so this would be considered as narrowing the healthcare field into a more focused etf-
Finding narrow sector groups in play with momentum is a great way to beat the larger index.
Following those sectors, the individual stocks that out perform- -carry the greater Risk as well as the greatest potential for reward.
I will mostly follow with ETFs, but look to a few momomentum plays - SQ; nflx to add some sizzle...

[sd]

At this moment, I'm home for the day with Hurricane watch- lost 2 trees -still partially upright leaning on another tree for support- allowed me to get the motorcycle out from the shed-
Late am News about Paul Mannaport making a 'deal' with prosecutors turned the Dow south - and- LOL earlier today I sold a small VIXY position I had open ( small loss) and then went ALL long- Markets looked enthusiastic in the AM, but not so this pm-
There's that lack of timing!
Question to ask - Will the markets continue to have upside the rest of this year or sell-off in September?
I originally had a more diversified portfolio- but that dilutes the overall return - so I have now over and under weighted different Vanguard ETF's--and narrowing the focus with some sector specific funds. This increases the Risk potential as opposed to holding a larger diversified portfolio with periodic rebalancing -
I will employ some stops- and partial positions- and will still seek to take some profits on what appears to be excess momentum.
There is likely a lot of overlap between several of the Vanguard funds- and I have particularly selected a number of sector funds vs broad market funds.
One significant advantage is that there are no trading commissions charged by Vanguard to trade Vanguard funds-
I also am investing in some of the new Vanguard Factor funds--and overweight the momentum fund VFMO-


VHT - Healthcare 12.5 %
VIS - industrials 7.5%
VGT- Technology 10%
VOOG S & P growth 20%
VFLQ US liquidity Factor fund- 5%
VFMO Momentum Factor fund 16%
VFQY Quality Factor fund 3%
VFVA Value Factor Fund 3%
VPU Utilities 3.5%
VCR Consumer discretionary 2%
non vanguard positions held in Vanguard acct:
AMZN 6%
IHI -I shares medical devices 6.7%
XLC Communication Services 3%

Note worthy is that I have mostly focused in the US markets- and have little global exposure-
I do have Some % exposure to the global markets through investments in the company IRA- Just holding my nose and not looking- assuming I'm getting value buys there-for the longer term

Active trades in the IB account: ARKG- genomics- just reentered on the upside move this week. New positions- AVAV, NITE, PI; reentry SQ, NFLX-

[sd]

With little time for the markets- or updating this 2018 thread- Simply compromised for time with the needs of the day job- Just did a quick view of the Vanguard acct IRA funds - and -since it's been a while- I did update the funds with trailing stops - which got taken out- as the market pulled back in October- and I then did some repurchasing-
Aside from the funds, my 2 biggest losers became my positions in AMZN, and NFLX- which I held without stops- I did make some purchases lower in both AMZN, and NFLX, as well as adding back into the funds as they exceeded -10% pullbacks from the highs, but I also shifted the weighting into the value and quality funds-vs overweighting tech. Overall, Nothing to shout about- but the SPY return YTD is 6%, and the Vanguard Ira is 8% including the 2 stocks- Had i had stops in both AMZN and NFLX, My net losses would have been less, and performance statistics much better....My best performer on the recent Buys is a position I initiated in the Emerging mkts- VWO- caught the recent bottom-and now a move slightly higher..... I still have some freed cash to invest, so I think I am suited to take advantage of any fall rally - Now that the mid term elections are behind us- Also holding some very low limit orders should the markets find a reason to sell-off in a panic- flash sell-off. That hasn't happened for a while- but the potential is still there-
Realistically, I'm not in tune with the market due to the work schedule- and perhaps that's not a bad thing-after all- a lot of noise and volatility that could screw with one's approach to the market- Ultimately, I believe the markets continue higher- To outperform is the challenge we take on as traders- The amount of free cash we fail to use because we think we have another leg down is dead money if the markets do not pullback again.
I do need to compare my personal part-time interested performance with the "managed" account - Not a lot of monies given there- but it provides a way to compare the role of a professional active manager vs myself - and compare the company IRA manager's performance as well- after fees etc.
I'm a big fan of Dave Ramsey- for the most part- Eliminate Debt- budget- develop and work the plan etc- Retire inspired and wealthy- Well, Crud, I started paying attention late in life but his message resonates - so I'm too late to become wealthy - but perhaps I can make this life /retirement thing a ma jig work out .... www.daveramsey.com/
We've got the debt free scream down- but there is differing advice out there-
A financial adviser tells me- You and your spouse may live until age 95- so delay taking any SS payments until age 70 to get the added 8% return/year gain - If you do that for 4 years- you'll get a monthly payment -for life that's 32% higher than your full retirement age (FRA) payment- - Of course, that means you give up 12 payments/year of income you could be investing if not spent- and if the returns per year exceed 8%, you are well ahead to take the payment early- and invest the distribution from SS if it's not needed to live on.
Doing the math- delaying 4 years of SS payments takes about 10 years of the higher payments just to meet the breakeven point- not considering the possible invest returns by taking the earlier distribution-
Ramsey seems to favor taking the SS payment at FRA- and invest those dollars- For myself- I'm now 8 +8% = 16% above my FRA - and i think I'm going to pull the plug , take the SS retirement before 70, and - live on the SS payment alone if possible- and still continue working at the day job - but at reduced hours - bank the weekly paycheck as future security/investments- maxing out the Roth accounts- and then at age 70 have to take the RMDs and start withdrawals-
For those that are younger and may read this- better get your financial ducks in a row- early on is much better than later- Playing Catch-up later in life is difficult- and I've been fortunate with health and employment- At age 70, you have to start taking-and paying taxes on the IRA monies Uncle Sam loaned you - But Not any taxes on the Roth monies!
So, Max out your company IRA to get any match offered, then Fund your individual Roth (Use Vanguard and invest in Vanguard funds or target funds) And after maxing out the Roth- open an individual IRA at Vanguard and get up to 15% of your income put to work for your retirement- Kill the Debt- Pay off the Mortgage- and Life simply feels fresher when you awake each day without any of that behind you. Again- I'd recommend listening to Dave Ramsey for a workable solution that does take effort and discipline.

[ira85]

Some good points! For years I thought Dave Ramsey was too simple. His ideas were so simple listening to his radio show was boring. I find Clark Howard much more interesting. BUT, the biggest mistake I've made managing my IRAs has been being chronically under invested. There always seemed to be a good reason for caution. What I failed to recognize was the cost in lost capital gains from being under invested. Dave Ramsey was right. His show may be too simple to make for riveting radio, but his message is right on target.

My plan has been to work full time at my day job till I turn 70 to max social security. I think the idea of taking your SS at 66 and investing it makes sense, but a lot of people would spend most of it, or fail to make 8% gains for those years.

I'm long term pretty pessimistic about the markets. I'm afraid all the years of QE, huge money supply, and artificially low interest rates may lead to great pain as those excesses are worked through. I'm afraid many states and cities won' be able to pay their health care and pension obligations once interest rates have gone back up. I think there is substantial risk of fairly widespread debt defaults. That's a deflationary scenario. So making 8% annual gains repeatedly may be rather unlikely in such a scenario. Of course our Uncle Sam is running a huge deficit. Cuts in social security and Medicare may be needed. So it might be wise to get those SS benefits into your personal account rather than trusting the politicians to take good care of it.

I better stop. I just realized I'm laying to groundwork to remain under-invested until the Federal deficit problems are resolved. If I live to be 100 I'll never find a good time to get fully invested.

Thanks for the good post. -ira

[sd]

Hey Ira,
I Agree- the Ramsey message is indeed basic and simple- but as attributed to Albert ... Don't make things more complex than they need to be- I think that holds true not only for theorems but something as elemental as financials. Many fail to get engaged with financial planning because they fear it's needlessly complex, so the Ramsey msg simplifies it for the masses.
I was planning on waiting until 70- and ultimately the carrot there is the add for the survivor's gain benefit-because the break even requires about 10 years - age 80- and many will live longer today . So, I've gone about half the distance- I think I read that less than 5% wait for the full age 70 before retiring-
If one's health and finances are such that delaying until 70 + to take SS is the best option- go for it- But as you point out- there could be serious modifications-or limitations- in SS in the future- So, that's all the more reason to have an established retirement set up that the SS payment is not part of allowing one to survive post their working years-
Amazing, - I talk to co-workers- young and older- even late 50's- that have never taken the time to consider going to the ss website, (https://www.ssa.gov/myaccount/) and taking 5 minutes to open their SS account and learn what their monthly check would be- based on their present earnings- The reality of what SS pays should motivate many to do much more on their own-
Earlier the better.
And to your point about being cautious- You have to keep money growing at a pace that you don't deplete the account-
For example, this year the COLA is pegged at 2.8%- That's the SS increase for inflation- So, If a portion of the account is sitting in a 1.5% return cash position, it is losing 1.3% in purchasing power this year alone.... compared to inflation-
I think the "safe" expectation is to anticipate a lower (safer) 4% return off the principal, and adjust withdrawals accordingly-
So, If avg COLA is 2.5%, and you wait until age 70 and start getting hit with mandatory RMDS of 3%, Your principal account return is losing 5.5% in purchasing power each year- and you might set that as the annual avg return to not erode the nest egg. Plug that in to last until age 95- and you need a very tidy sum to survive that long.
Yup- Just convinced myself to take the withdrawal- after 2 years delay- +16% - and invest it early

[sd]

As a follow up to Ira's recent post:
I think it's worthwhile to get some independent adviser advice- and -locally at least- there are a number that have radio shows that claim to be a "fiduciary" adviser-
and will give your present financial plans a review- often for free. The goal there is that they believe they can bring more value to the individual than their present adviser-
It never hurts to get a second- or third opinion - and if the review is free- it's just a matter of an hour or two of one's time for something tremendously important.
Note that many (self included) have their primary source of retirement investments through their employer's plan- and naturally assume that the employer has selected the best of the best to manage the employees assets. That is not always true- Sometimes the employer finds a "suitable" adviser to host the company's plan that meets the business' compliance concerns, rather than the goal of finding the best performing, lowest cost adviser.
Our company found out - during the shift of advisers to conform to the new "fiduciary standard" - that the adviser we had was not "compliant" - and tried to conform but had to charge higher -upfront fees - that were not as transparent prior. During that process, I elected to rollover the majority of my funds away from the Employer's manager and- put some in Vanguard under my management, and some with a local "Fiduciary" . In the process , I had responded to several local financial ads- and entered a new arena of a few prospective interviews- and
passed on one firm- ; felt like I was constantly being Sold To- on the potential unstable stock market and the need to "protect" my small assets , and settled on another -local firm -that was very transparent regarding fees, and also their recommendations-
So, They recommended that individuals have multiple diverse areas ( separate buckets) where they hold their assets in: The more, the better- Unfortunately, I don't have income producing franchises, apartment buildings, mall lease spaces, chains of gas stations etc. So, they recommended I do a 2 bucket "starter " as opposed to a one and all-
One small segment was put into a fixed annuity-for the "safe" conservative approach and the other would be actively managed at a fixed % fee using commercial funds that I don't have direct access to . Only time will tell how the active management fund will perform - This year's results will be interesting-
A number of advisers recommend annuities for a portion of one's funds because they are relatively guaranteed- vs a variable - and the annuity pays a nice commission to the adviser that puts you in it- However, i chose to consider the annuity portion somewhat differently- as a replacement for the bond component of my portfolio-
It's worth considering a % portion of one's investment dollars in something that will outpace inflation, and come with some guarantees and restrictions- Buyer beware- these can be complex and have high fees-
I ended up doing a very simple rollover to transfer the remaining majority of my employer IRA into a Vanguard brokerage account- allows me to buy and sell Vanguard funds at No cost-
and some limited number of transactions free in non-vanguard funds or stocks-
i still continue to invest through my employer and with the new manager- We'll see how this turns out - I set up the investment allocation out of my weekly paycheck- and I think purchases are made monthly- Maxing out the 15% allowed- and covering the annual Roth contribution through Vanguard. Hadn't bothered viewing the employer account over the last 2 years since the inception- Figure it's dollar cost averaging in as long as I continue working- Not bothering to micro manage that which i would be inclined to sell out of- Have to accept thgt I think those dollars won't need to be used to pay bills for a decade or so-
Several years ago- i did a calculation on somebody starting to invest as the market was rising, and then we had the 45 -55% sell-off in multiple asset classes in 2008-09 -
and- as long as one continued to be buying every month- the recovery was sooner back to break-even- than those that paniced and sold after 20 or 30 % losses. I was fortunate at that time to have gone largely into cash early - listening to some of the market naysayers- Gartman, Battaglia- likely having passed by now- but I failed to get back in early as the market recovered. Had i done so, I would have been the "smart money" Note, that I do not have a lot of money - I consider myself to be underfunded at this stage in life....
Simply sharing this experience to give other readers the encouragement to not simply take the easy path and do nothing- but take a few steps to become more interested in your employer's plan, managers etc- and should it not measure up if honestly viewed- look at other options-including Vanguard- who also offers a low cost "active manager' option.
No one Should care more more about where your money is- Than you.
When i was young- the 3 TV stations shut down at 9 pm- and the last message that was broadcast was - "It's 9pm. Do YOU know where your children are? "
With all of the technology and decades since- That is still true- but i'd like to paraphrase it and add - "It's getting late- Do you know where your assets are? "
EDit-add-
personal.vanguard.com/us/insights/saving-investing/model-portfolio-allocations
It's worth considering the effects of long term results and portfolio allocation rebalancing to a more conservative exposure.
Assuming that one had reached their target goal at retirement- say $1 Million dollars (I'm a tad shy this week) -
and the assets were conservatively managed- the portfolio returns of 100% bonds have averaged 5.4% - but i don't know if that can be achieved in the present low rate environment-
That would about keep up with inflation- but note that 14 of the 92 years sustained losses- meaning -0.0% returns- since the investor seeking yield and safety should put this into present day context- What is the bell curve for this asset class and where is it present day? I think it's quite low these recent years. Scary stuff- for those seeking security-and protecting capitol.

[sd]

Markets start the Thanksgiving week with selling- Taking advantage of the pleasant fall NC weather and this week off to catch up on some long overdue outside projects-and not focused much on trading-investing. SPY has lost approx 11% from it's highs-into the October low, and it looks prepared to go back there again- but several-15% declines have occurred since 09- that would put the Spy back at 249-250 Feb lows-
Pundits on the CNBC news are generally bearish, thinking damage has been done and we have peaked this year.
Utilities still trending higher- defensive -purchased some VPU and a small add in VGT with the gap down today. Some tech stocks started to see some buying today- but not enough to turn the index higher.
Vanguard investment acct is bleeding red - and I wish I had tempered some of those earlier "buy the dips" , but I've turned more investor-at this point, rather than trader.
Low employment may translate into wage pressures for Companies- but the consumer also has more opportunity to be spending-
Fed fears - and fears about tariffs and global trade, strong dollar -falling energy prices- all seem to be factors in shaking up the markets-
In terms of my repurchases- VFMO (momentum) -7%; VFQY- Quality factor fund -4.8%; VFVA-Value factor fund -2.9%; VGT -tech- -5.9%; VHT-Healthcare -1.9%; VOOG- Growth -3.1;
Vwo -emerging mkts + 1.5%
Note that typical minor pullbacks 3-5% make a tight stop a liability- unless one compares and views a momentum increase where price increases in an unsustainable move.

I underweighted momentum, tech, and over weighted quality and value in allocation sizing.

Unfortunately, I failed to act with stops on Amzn -19% and Nflx. Brain Fart, lack of discipline- denial....Allowed my perception to bias my decision making-
Both combined became the biggest drag on the account. This is indeed the greater Risk of holding a single stock vs an etf...and the end result of not keeping a consistent and involved approach.

Since investing is planning for the long term, the question becomes- How long will it take for these purchases to turn from losses to profits?
Are we destined for a negative year ahead? Should i have stayed in CASH???... These are undoubtedly the fears and concerns of all as they open their statements.

I still hold a 28 % +/-cash position - so the goal would be to use those dollars as the smoke clears, lower likely, and perhaps overweight healthcare or another market segment;
As one example- subset of healthcare is genomics- One focused ETF with 40 or so holdings is ARKG-still presently up +11% on the year, from being up 40% near it's peak.
but - perhaps that was the focus in 2018 - and other factors (regulations?) will they still outperform in 2019? I think the field is here for the next decade or two until they cure death- but I also thought Robotics - Botz, Robo- would still hold up .... Definitely will be in greater demand in the future.... Can it be that in this period of more rapid technology change- that the Rise and Fall of the newest and greatest- Take a Face Book -for one example- or an Apple- is no longer decades long like the IBM of the 80's -or the GE's of the industrial era....Technology brings disruption of the status quo....Bitcoin appears to be under $5k and in decline- -go figure...
What is the next big advancement that ushers in the next decade???
Well, as investors- staying the course with the Tried and True is likely the most proven approach- but one needs to have exposure to that with some sizzle and upside-so that supports having a portion of one's assets allocated to "growth" - and possibly self-directed active management.
Positioning for one's eventual retirement for themselves and their family includes understanding the options available-
I found out this week that my wife can take her SS payment and still earn $17,000.00; without penalty; and i can collect on her FRA as a qualified spouse- and withhold my SS to get the larger gain by delaying my activation. This allows us to receive SS payments that supplements the present income - and is something that was not well identified by the "financial advisor" that I presently have . I actually view discovering this on my own as an omission on the part of my advisor's responsibility to understand and convey due diligence. in the planning process.....
The end result, is that if I stay fully employed and delay taking SS payments, I can gain an additional 16% return over the next 2 years of delayed payments- which will allow me to receive the maximum payment and for my spousal benefit to be the maximum. With the prior partial spousal contributions I can start to collect, delaying my full retirement at +32% at age 70 will give myself and my spouse the higher benefit for our lives- should we live that long to get beyond the point of break even- approx 10 years... or age 80+
I wish we had prepared earlier in life- but life happens .... and we all get caught up inthe immediacy of raising children, families, and wanting to feel some rewards along the way-
I guess we should all prepare for the eventuality that we all will live and exist far longer than we presently expect

[sd]

Worth sharing this personal observation about taking one's hand off the wheel and putting the Winnebago in 'remote' and stepping out of the driver's seat and into the kitchen to make a pot of coffee...

As I did some accounting and soul searching this past week on vacation/holiday- with no focus on the day job.... I was able to come to some rational observations-
My negative positions in the 2 stocks- Both Amzn and Nflx- were only compounded when I added to each position as the market declined- and the stocks declined- further-
It was an odd way to separate that I would be somewhat active on the Investment front- and had determined to allow these 2 stocks a pass as market leaders that would also become market leaders again in the future- they would be the 1st to recover from any pullback -I figured- BOY, did I get that one wrong-
A more proactive trading approach in the investment side had me do some early selling, and accumulated some cash- and then did some buying- Early it now appears- but generally when things had sold off about -10%
I can only shake my head in wonder as i allowed the 2 stock positions to decline and become 66%- 2/3 of my net losses- while representing about 10% of the assets- In years past i would have never held as the stock rolled over and broke below the emas and declined....
I finally had the where with all to say to myself that I should be ashamed for allowing a flagrant loss to continue- yet I set a stop a tad under the recent lows- vs selling outright- Hope springs eternal for those of us with such a narrow point of perspective...Markets rallied a bit higher today- perhaps I will get the opportunity to trail into a higher move and reduce the net effect- of these 2 stocks pulling me down for the year....
Tonight I went back and reminded myself that my behavior in this period of being invested but not interested was simple neglect - and quite irresponsible-
I hope to see that we rally higher here- Nice rally today- and it can serve to set the recent reaction lows as probable stops to be positioned- even for many of those "investment " buys I made at a discount- expecting a bounce- would perhaps be better served to exit at a smaller loss, and increase position size in the more defensive areas that have held up well- Including healthcare-..

[sd]

Very nice market rally thanks to the Fed! and a lot of short covering pain I suspect...With AMZN gaining 6%- + $96.00, and NFLX + 6% -$6.00 - still in the red on those 2 big losers-but hope reigns eternal that today's price action notes a change in the market tenor- and the opportunity to cut my losses should we continue higher- It's also worth noticing that those 2 stocks moved up almost 2x as much % wise as my other positions- q's gained 3.22 while the Vanguard tech position gained 3.49
However, having had my feet blistered in the fire, could those 2 big decliners recover any of their prior leadership momentum? That's the optimism speaking- along with seeing my recent purchases on the investment side roll into some green. and a 1% further up move should have all net profitable- and negate the drag down of those 2 stocks underwater losses.
Had I not been AWOL with those 2 stock positions - I would be solidly in the green- Lesson to be learned with individual stocks vs etfs- While the individual stock can provide more sizzle on the upside- it can also provide the outsized drag to the downside- so that effect can be mitigated by employing active stops- or - understanding that many stocks trade in tandem within sector groups- reduce or limit the sector exposure to a certain % of the portfolio- similarly, same is true for narrow sectors sub groups- that capture momentum...
While I believe that technology and medicine/healthcare are the 2 broad sectors that will outperform over the long term- albeit with greater volatility- A caution in terms of overthinking the sector: with sub set plays-
The field of automation and robotics- AI in cars and our homes seem inevitable- ever expanding- yet compare the results of the broad technology sector- VGT + 11% on the YTD, and the sub sectors- ROBO -10.59%, and BOTZ -16.77% While Botz and Robo are in the sub sects of the broader sector- they have certainly underperformed recently- while seeminging to outperforming at times previously. However, when viewed over various time frames, 3 yr- the larger sector group outperforms - + 80% over 3 years, while the sub groups had periods of higher momentum on occasion, but declined early in year 3 to only have +30 & +45% gains- This highlights the possible benefit and loss of seeking the big momentum stocks- or segment that can eventually become the bigger loser or underperformer. It also makes a strong case for more active management of momentum investments using simple TA/ema averages.


A few comparisons:

SPY gained 2.30%, and Voog gained 3.03. Note that Voog appears to outperform SPY substantially- comparing on a 1,2,3 year basis-
VHT- Vanguard Health care gained 2.55% while XLV returned 2.41%
ARKG returned 3.93, while IBB returned 2.71%
IVE returned 1.51% and VFVA (vanguard value fund) also returned 1.51% on the day.

It will be interesting to see if this changes the market sentiment to view the larger positives vs the potential negatives ahead

[sd]

11-29 am trade note
Adding to my existing VHT position to overweight-limit order This will reduce my free cash to 15%
The decision to overweight healthcare is based on how well it held up for the year during the sell-off, suggesting underlying strength .
I had also placed a limit order to add some to the ARKG position but it had not filled- raised the limit to above yesterday's close.

[sd]

11.30.18 Markets closed up- Added to the ARKG and VHT positions-
Should Trump come back from Asia with a "Deal" on trade- markets will likely gain substantially.
Getting close to the time to raise trailing stops on all positions- Easing into the green this week- with those purchases during the decline- but most are still in declining mode-
This temporary rally may be a short term reaction to the upside.... iF SO, i WILL NEED TO BE POSITIONED WITH STOPS....

[sd]

This Sunday was worthwhile.... Exchanging some charting ideas with a friend also prompted me to upgrade my stops-,
With the Trump visit to Asia/China, I expected some benefit to the markets - and -indeed , the markets saw fit to rally a bit- Optimism reigns eternal...
Finally back into net profitable territory- but still lagging in the 2 stock positions- Set stops in all positions this weekend, but gave them a bit of room.
Nothing worse than getting whipsawed on a high volatility spike lower intraday that activates a stop- and then closes back at the open- or higher.
Added back into the portfolio with some gains- EEM position is my largest gainer- but that was bought on a sell-off decline.
I had also added into the technology sector- and that is finally making a big move up- so, several of my incremental lower buys have seen nice % gains - +7% IN A PARTIAL ENTRY ON vgt
Not to get too excited- let's see what the end of the year brings with the total portfolio and somewhat active management- albeit awol .....for much of the year to the detriment.
I suspect i will still meet -or exceed- the actively managed funds I hold- through an advisor- But there remains the month of december to prove that one way or another-

[sd]

After a small rally Monday, stocks sold off across the board today 12.4. and a number of positions executed- I tightened the remainder.

[ira85]

"With the Trump visit to Asia/China, I expected some benefit to the markets . . ."
I don't share your confidence in the Donald. He seems to have a machete and sledge hammer approach to everything. I got worried when he first proclaimed "Trade wars are good and easy to win." Trade wars were a factor in the Great Depression. I recall hearing someone say, "We've had one Great Depression and two world wars. Let's keep it that way." I fear Donald is over confident. He doesn't seem to be aware that his actions could have catastrophic consequences and entirely unintended consequences. As a real estate mogul if a project goes bad he can get out of the project and his career goes on. But upset the apple cart of world trade and trigger a global avalanche of adverse consequences, he just can't declare bankruptcy and get a do-over.

It seems he wants to go down in history as the most successful American president and get his face carved into Mt Rushmore. So he is eager for decisive action to add more accomplishments to his resume. But I fear he under-estimates the risks he's taking. If the next two years go south in a big way with world trade crashing he could go down as the president whose actions contributed to the second great depression. I hope I'm just a nervous nelly. But what if the Donald has some Jesse Livermore in him? Livermore just had to pursue deals, even when he knew he shouldn't. I'm often wrong. I hope I'm wrong on this. God help us if the Donald can't discipline his thirst for action like Livermore couldn't. -ira

[sd]

I share some of your cautions Ira. While I voted for Trump and his "progressive" solutions that indeed spurred economic growth and tax reform- I also like that he is not easily intimidated and can stand his ground in the face of adversity- - But, I find the Tweeting and involvement in affairs that didn't require any comment to be made, the signature of an ego that strays far and wide-perhaps simply to feel he has control. Just be Presidential- and stay out of the weeds- Why refer publically to Cohen as "Weak" and a Liar- Why respond to "Stormy" at all? Why make unnecessary comments? Why get involved in the very minor -minutiae - when you can accomplish so much more by forgoing the personal and be Presidential- Korea, is a great example... Saudi Arabia?
Why is Kelly being Ousted? As a manager,or a President, one needs to be able to be willing to hear and consider contrary opinions and advice- and then make a decision based on the merits of the evaluation/conclusion.
I agree- that we likely need to come to a better "deal" regarding trade- and perhaps this eventually will benefit the US more fairly- but your concerns that this could precipitate an avalanche reaction vs a smooth readjustment are perhaps well founded.
Particularly bothersome was the GM announcement last week of closing 5 plants-...That appears to be a big crack in the support for the new economic push .....Trump has done a great job of bringing back business's bases back into the US- and Tax reform and his pro-business policies put Americans back to work-Hopefully he can continue to gain support for that effort!
I don't know that he needs to be involved/ berating the Fed either- Let the Fed own their policy choices and rate changes-
In the end , it's politics- I pray that wisdom prevails for what is the long term good for the country and not second guess what tomorrow's headlines will be or react to todays.