SD - TRADING/INVESTING FOR 2018

[sd]

Markets closed higher again- recovering a lot of the recent sell-off.
Filled on Botz, Robo, DDM today. All of these have ground to make up to get back to where they were.
Missed getting back in some of the AARK funds earlier- will do so for tomorrow with Market orders.
Adding into the Vanguard positions I \took early positions in.
This market pullback/correction has made quite a rebound- At this point, the TA is all on the side of a long continuation-

[sd]

I added in to some of the investment positions this past week- plus several ARK funds-
In a total contrast to my "Normal" methods of trading- I'm not trying to micromanage any of my reentry positions yet with a stop-loss-
Easy enough to do because the market hasn't shown it's bear side this past week-
I'm not yet back fully invested-but that is where I was a few weeks ago- and it proved to be the 1 out of 10 or 20 moments that being All-In and then getting "All-out" - Timing- tight stops-and then reentering captured the Alpha for that portion that either captured gains as stops executed, and then repurchased at lower prices- but it has not been a total capture at lower prices - but I'm OK with holding some cash Now- see how things settle out as we move forward.
I found myself doing exactly what I already Know and Understand about Retail Traders- Particularly in my Wife's account- Good exits- but i was hesitant from going back in early- So, let's delve into that a bit-

I have been a firm believer in setting stops, "The 1st Early Loss is The Best Loss" holds true- Periods of excess momentum are best followed by a trailing stop that doesn't get so close that it gets hit on a whiff of a slowing, but captures the majority of an extended move- seldom the peak ....
For those that like a nice roast on a Sunday- it's getting more of the meat and potatoes, and not also trying for all the gravy.
But, Presently, I have not placed any stops- That may change this week- but I have had to ask myself - What do I think the markets will do this year?
The answer is - The markets will continue higher- but with greater volatility than we have had the past year or two.

Let's face facts- we quickly forget- the last year and a half has been without a significant correction of +/- 5% . It has been a pretty steady uptrend for those of us that stayed Long...and tough on those that tried to short against the Tide.
But, the reality I have learned for my style of EOD trading/investing , is that I generally allow a 2-4% stop width from a position to hold outside of normal volatility- and so, On average I may give up 3-4% on slippage, (Unless I am chasing a momentum move) and -a -10% decline offers me - and others- a limited opportunity to Buy at a discount below where we stopped out at- This is a simple reality check. Perhaps this is much truer for index ETF's than individual stocks- I would expect that to be the case...
Now, i find myself in a new territory- I have some "Investments" that i think should perform well- as long as the economy performs well- and the overall trend is higher-

But, this is based on an "Investor" mindset- and could we decline an additional -10% lower from here ? Would I be able to sit through and stomach such a pullback, or would I be able to profit from another decline this large?
The question becomes one of Risk and Reward- Are you measuring yourself against a simple Spy Benchmark- or striving for much greater outperformance-?
Is it a choice of choosing Black or White- or do we reduce the odds to favor a lower win-lose?

Well, trading account and/or Investing account- both benefit from buying near the lows- i found I bought more early on in the investment side-
It ought to be an interesting 2018- I will have to decide how to adapt Trading/ Investing- But it's started off on a positive note so far-

[sd]

AHHH, So - to the Plight of the Average retail trader that only captures 1/3 of the market's move-
REJOICE- Because you could be operating at the same meager level these hedge Funds produced at 2 & 20! HAH!

www.cnbc.com/2018/02/21/greenlight-capital-has-never-underperformed-like-this-einhorn-says.html

[sd]

Buying VFQY -at market today.$75.48 entry a "quality" Factor etf brought to market in Feb with 5 other factor ETFs-
Markets are selling off this week- Trumps comments on Trade sanctions prompting the market confusion and selling-
EDIT ADDED COMMENT-While circumstances of late don't allow me to follow the markets intraday, I had already decided due to the recent selling to add some exposure to Value or dividend-- but then searched for the newly listed Factor funds. I selected the Quality Factor fund for the remainder.
This has been a new experience overall- buying when the market is selling- trying to add at a lower cost- Time will tell if this was prudent, or something I can adapt to



investor.vanguard.com/etf/factor-funds

Still holding some cash in the trading accounts- Vanguard will be "all in" after today- without stops presently-investment focus- and will place limit orders close to the Feb lows- to add back if the Sale continues- Looks pretty wide!
Edit- I also purchased CBOE this am Filled at $112.9095 Overweight 55 sh. Closed at $115.00. Both the Spy and Nasdaq closed higher +1% Nas; .51% Spy, Dow-.29% Rut 2k up 1.71 !
What prompted me to purchase this am was a glimmer of the green up move after the open- Nice base developed -higher from the sell-off lows over the past 3 weeks, and price was pushing higher this AM despite the other major indexes were in the red early on. Green Elder Impulse bar didn't hurt in making the decision early- and the dental appointment I was taking the day off for, was just an hour away LOL!

I'll select CBOE for the Horse race this week- I had owned it previously during the uptrend and am surprised at how large a % decline off the highs-
Perhaps a part of that momentum was due to the announcement that the CBOE would allow some crypto trading to occur....I would have expected that trades in either direction would benefit CBOE.

[sd]

CBOE trade has moved up nicely +10% gain since I purchased a week ago- Closed up above 124 today as major indexes rallied on a good jobs report - up 1.5%-1.80% including the small caps.
I was home today early, and decided to go long with some of the remaining cash in the accounts- Instead of adding into ETFs- I went long a couple of Amzn, and 14 NFLX. I am still positioned without stops- but I will review my positions- including investments, and gradually set stops-goal would be to get all positions Profitable and where stops will cover the cost of entry- The one issue with setting such stops -unless accompanied by a limit with the stop- is that in a fast sell-off- The activation price can be executed at the total low in a 1 minute bar. The limit with the stop would not be executed in such a Flash crash-


Update 3.13.18 I had decided to put in OCA orders in my TD Ameritrade account- One order cancels another-
I had tried to enter the orders Sunday, but saw that it did not work. Likely failed to click the Send button - had to scroll down to find it.
Since I had a decent initial gain- I decided I would scale out of this position. I had hoped it would continue higher- so I decided i would sell 20 shares at the market open- 20 shares at 130 limit with a 120 stop- and 15 shares at 135 with a 118 stop.
My market sell executed $124.56, 20 share order with the $20 stop filled at $119.89, and I remain holding the 15 shares with a 118 stop-

I would normally use a breakdown bar closing at the lows like today to raise the stop directly below the low of the bar. Since the majority of my position orders executed today, I will take the additional loss and allow the 118 stop to be hit for the remaining shares.

[sd]

The CBOE trade stopped out for a loss- @ 117.00 some time back- Been busy with the Life stuff- but today is Monday 3.26.18= Market sold off hard last week- nice rally today- had about 4k clear in the Ib account- adding to the ARKW, ARKQ, ARKG positions- NO Stops in place .
Still have a bit of capitol in TD- Vanguard is maxed out -
A quick note- particularly in the Vanguard account- the big run up in Jan prompted me to trail some tight stops- which were taken out early in the feb pullback- and I managed to get the wherewithall- Warren Style- and made some purchases as prices went lower- Got fully invested in Vanguard during the selling- but unfortunately not all at the bottom- Last week's carnage saw 14 positions in the red in vanguard, 3 in the green, and about a -2% loss overall- Not too stressful overall-
Tonight in the IB account I elected to put some freed up losses i had (DDM I think) and chose to add to the ARK positions- genomics, web, and industrials-
I've certainly allowed myself to slip into Investor mode- and that suits me presently as other obligations keep me focused elsewheres, and less on market happenings.
Will the markets be higher 6 months from now? 1 year? I would certainly hope that will be the case- At some point, i will resume a more active role-but presently I am holding positions as Investments through ETF's- I have a spot of free cash available for a couple of trades- just to keep a toe in the water.

[sd]

For years I expected the markets to wake up and have a substantial repricing- similar to the 2008 sell-off- a huge decline of 40-50% that took a decade to recover from. -more or less... Being conservative translates into being less aggressive when the going is good- and jumping ship when "Story" clouds appear. Active traders - self included- often underperform because we attempt to market time the small stuff- the daily noise that has a spike lower intraday- and we think it's the start of a big sell-off - only to get out of the position to see the trade reverse much higher on a gap up a few days later. The idea that We have control is valid -some of the time- but not a sure thing over repeated trades- In my mind i think of how well I executed a raised trailing stop-loss on an extended price- but perhaps fail to focus on the failed losing trade. The concept that we can control our destiny rings strong- but statistics suggest that the majority who strive to do so fail to outperform over the longer term of numerous trades over the years. Such is also true for the majority of trained professional traders managing investment dollars-
Do I think we will crash and lose another -20% in the months ahead? Perhaps- Will we lose another 10% over the next months? That's likely- and not abnormal. Could I successfully trail stops on multiple active positions in this kind of Chop? Not likely. Will we end this year higher than we started? i would expect so-
I don't get to hear the daily noise due to other responsibilities- No CNBC etc. Might get in to catch the last of Cramer-
Holding a number of positions- no stop losses- A good amount of investment diversification -
Even with yesterdays recovery, and todays selling, I am down about 1% today from the Feb investments- Not worth panicking about- Note- had I not sold initially, my account deficit would have been larger- so some active management happened to work out in my favor- as I expect todays purchases will also work out over time for higher profits.

[sd]

I hadn't looked at account values since the last post 3-27-
GEEZ- I didn't look even when the DOW dropped so hard- and then made a recovery- i only regret that I hadn't put the remaining bit of free cash to work buying the sell-off when the morning futures were so ugly- The Dow moved some 700 pts this week, to recover up after 500 pts down. There may be another opportunity yet- Volatility is not over.

This kind of up and down cycle /Chop - how do you position yourself if not a day trader? Easy to get caught on the wrong side .
Period of transition for me, as I am more focused on more important issues, and the market's gyrations are not my worry- despite the fact that i have
the majority of my retirement assets ALL-IN that are under my control.

i elected to review my "investment account' tonight with Vanguard- and Lo and Behold, I'm actually up almost 3/4 % from my repurchases in Feb-
One of the best performers is the 'WOOD' ETF- beaten by VOOG- the Vanguard S&P Growth ETF- note- Voog returned 28% in 2017 -significantly outperforming SPY- I potentially could have done some profitable trading since then, but Life happens and my focus/demands are elsewheres -and likely will be for some time.
I would point out that I'm focused mostly on ETFs- And i see a number of dbl bottoms on the charts from Feb. and this week a possible rise higher-
Decision is out as to whether I will throw in some stops- But i enjoy trading- and likely will in the weeks ahead- I felt good as during this up and down ride, the diversified account didn't see a huge drop-despite how scary CNBC tried to make it sound.

[sd]

On a day when most sectors lost over 2%, I bought- Vanguard's new Factor Value fund at the close- VFVA- with my remaining free cash- I also hold the Vanguard Quality fund. both should be somewhat conservative. Do I think we're at a bottom? Not likely-

[sd]

4.21.18
Been a few weeks since i last posted- Market has been up and down, and I'm still holding the course-without stops- While I hold positions in a few individual stock positions-AMZN, NFLX, in a trading account, Everything else is in ETF's. Relatively Flat. Life goes on
There are a number of factors at work that are influencing the markets- Situation with N korea seems to be improving-
The ongoing political drama with Mueller and Trump and now Trump's attorney will plague the headlines into the fall elections.
Counter measures on the political scene - are finally coming into play- Perhaps i simply am indoctrinated by listening to the Sean Hannity perspective-
According to Hannity, we are at a crossroads of unveiling the corruption at the highest levels of a government that has been usurped by political demagogues with a belief in their viewpoint justifying violating .

All of this discourse is quite dramatic- The ultimate question is will any of this matter in 3 months? six months? 1 year? ,,,,,,
I'm fully in, no stops, and believe we will ultimately come out in positive gains for the ,markets-
Truly- an act of faith,,,

[blygh]

I don't know SD. . .  I think the market would prefer Pence as president - steady, measured, predictable - I personally think Trump will resign  if the fall elections start looking bad for the GOP.  

Blygh  

[sd]

True Blygh,
Pence would suit both sides of congress- More of a team -status-quo player- traditional entrenched politician acceptable to all the players on both sides that want to continue the "normal" politics . Trump has disrupted the status quo - and- I think it's good to stir the pot and shake things up-
You are also correct- after a year + of no Trump Russian collusion evidence- the special prosecutor is making a case based on a 10 year old affair and some chump change pay-off?
I don't know how the market would react if Trump bailed out- resigned- or was brought up on Impeachment charges by a new democratic majority following the fall elections=-But I suspect it would not be pretty- Trump is seen as very pro business- and that has helped spur this economy with some new enthusiasm- There are a number of things i don't like about his style/approach -but if the end results get positive actions on the home front as well as the world stage, perhaps that is exactly what has been needed . Refreshing to see the economy bustling and to not have an apologetic President. I'd rather see us negotiate from a position of strength than one of conciliation with the various elements in the world we live in.

[sd]

6.26.18 how time flies when you're preoccupied with other personal matters-! Woke up a bit yesterday long enough to note that the Trump tariff war has taken quite a toll on some of my positions- Best performer has been NFLX- up 100% in 2018- but i got in in Feb i think- Sold it today- closing out the tdameritrade acct- moving it to a Roth in Vanguard- In the IRA account- about 1/2 of the positions I had sells or stops on sold- primarily the INTL funds - IB raised stops on all positions- i will likely reinvest in NFLX- just fed up with the difficulty in the TD Ameritrade/scottrade
Too many personal demands -etc have taken up my focus- and i totally set investing and trading on a back burner -Yet I find myself realizing that I should have allocated just 1-2 hours a week to review positions- Some of the losing trades are relatively substantial- and - could have easily been avoided by setting a stop-loss- Offset by some winners- but a few hours a week - would have been very beneficial using some basic TA as prices declined- Still holding a number of positions, but with stops at this weeks' low- Market rallied a bit today, so will give this a look - I was surprised at how sharply Robo and Botz fell- but the Int'l exposure- and semi-tech- took it's toll.

[sd]

Wow, September is here, market declining a bit this week- I had added stops recently -in all accounts- seemed the prudent thing to do-Got stopped out totally on the IB account- net gains but small- Vanguard- tally is 6 losing trades and 33 winners so far- but the net gain is simply about 8% - par with the market's performance- Trying to slice and dice with multiple positions lowers the Risk but also dilutes the net gain- Tech and healthcare outperforming-on the year- and VOOG outperforming Spy

Chose to add tighter stops recently- and captured gains- and this recent pullback would have taken a toll this week- I've set some lower limits- but partial positions-
Did take a loss on the XBI position- but had some gains offset with ARKG- genomics.
Getting too cute with sector diversification hasn't helped- Note that YTD Spy is about 8.5% while the Vanguard VUG is 13% and voog is 14%- close to a double the market-
VHT healthcare is 15% YTD- and did not stop out- and -I'm overweight the position. I think small caps -RUT2000 -iwm 12.5% YTD are worth following- but the upcoming elections will be a deterrent I think-
I've started some trend line projections when viewing charts, along with the price to Ema perspective- Definitely time to raise a tighter stop on momentum excess...up 160% YTD.
Makes you wonder why did i ever set any stop? >>>>>>>>I've been in this earlier in the year, and took some small profits- but what a YTD move! Holding for a longer term larger gain is what we all should be striving for- when the momentum favors us-

I'm thinking that the elections and seasonality make good reasons to keep a fair amount of cash available- but I'll intend to overweight sectors - Technology- Genomics/healthcare -
as theme plays ..... I added to the VPU position -utilities- expecting it to excel as the safety index in a market selling - but it didn't gain today- will give it some wiggle room-
Working the day job 6 days a week- 10 hr days - not much free time - but who's counting .....

[sd]

Well, tonight I think I like Ira's pick- and went ahead with a buy-stop limit on Vixy- Curious that the IB account wouldn't allow the order to be placed in a Roth- but Vanguard does-
I also went through my vanguard buy orders and went ahead and reduced them lower- If the market gets volatile- I hope to get fills at a lower price point -capturing that volatility panic lower. It may not happen at all- but I'm taking smaller position size orders at wider levels from where we sit today- Locked in some short term profits- on the raised stops- now hoping to capture some lower entry prices on reentry positions- Feels right to have some skin in the game- but modest % exposure - The raised stops over the prior weeks were definitely the way to go- reinforces I need to get back more with an active focus ..... Market fundamentals seem great for the US- but all the political rhetoric and animosity can derail the best of the fundies....
In the past, when I would position myself short I typically caught the bottom- and had my head handed back to me... EUM is at a recent high- but PSQ is interesting -shorts tech -1x vs qid 2x. Not jumping in prematurely- as the predominant trend is clearly down for the year-