bankedout's trading journal

[bankedout]

Palladium has weakened further, making my decision even more difficult.


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The last little consolidation broke loose this week, and prices have started to slip pretty good now. I think there is building pressure on metals short, but I still think there is building pressure on Natural Gas short. Which will be more profitable?

So tough to call.

Is the best bet to have both?

Hmmmmmm.

[bankedout]

Jul 1, 2015 10:26:42 GMT -5 bankedout said:

My buy stop triggered for DWTI today, and I was filled at $70.08 for about 20% of my account value.

My sell stop triggered for DWTI yesterday (IRA account) and I was sold out at $161.73 My cash trading account for this portion of my position was sold out prior to this.

[bankedout]

Jul 16, 2015 13:45:05 GMT -5 bankedout said:

My buy stop triggered for DWTI today and I was filled at $98.14 for about another 15% of my account value. Without counting mark to market gains on the initial 20% position, this buy would bring me up to a 35% position size.

My sell stops triggered for DWTI yesterday, and I was sold out at $161.73 for both of my trading accounts.

I was thinking we were only half way to my goal for Crude Oil prices. Shows what I know!

[bankedout]

My portfolio as of 8/28/2015:

[ira85]

I appreciate your posting of real world results. Interesting and educational. It seems you are successful at doing something pundits say is impossible. Thanks. -ira

[bankedout]

Thank you ira. I'm glad you find this thread interesting and educational.

Trading is a journey, not a destination. I feel like I am in tune with technical analysis right now, though I have very limited time to devote to it.

An example would be ACI Clearly I was asleep at the wheel, when Coal stocks woke up from their deep slumber......


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I haven't had time to look at individual stocks lately. I have just been following a few ETFs in my limited free time.

However, I believe with the right small list of products to trade, one can find enough profit opportunities if they watch closely.

I follow the teachings of:

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Richard_Wyckoff

As taught to me by dbPhoenix years ago. dbPhoenix has been making his living off Wyckoff's method for a number of years, in all types of markets. He would be a good one for you to follow. I'm not sure what message board he is writing on these days.

Good trading to you!

[bankedout]

DGAZ closed 2 cents below my buy stop level (which was $6.61), and sometimes in my experience Natural Gas moves significantly in price outside of stock exchange hours. So I decided to put myself in long after hours. I was filled at $6.63 for about 30% of my cash account value and 50% of my ira account value. I set my sell stop just below today's low in case I am wrong.

[bankedout]

Sept 2, 2015 16:13:37 GMT -5 bankedout said:

DGAZ closed 2 cents below my buy stop level (which was $6.61), and sometimes in my experience Natural Gas moves significantly in price outside of stock exchange hours. So I decided to put myself in long after hours. I was filled at $6.63 for about 30% of my cash account value and 50% of my ira account value. I set my sell stop just below today's low in case I am wrong.

Natural Gas traders are a finicky bunch.... My sell stop triggered for DGAZ and I was sold out at $6.34 today.

[bankedout]

My portfolio as of 9/4/2015:

[bankedout]

My conditional buy order (based on the price of SLV) triggered today for DSLV and I was filled at $72.97 This was about 50% of my IRA account and 30% of my cash trading account. I am now essentially all in for both accounts.

[bankedout]

My portfolio as of 9/11/2015:

[sd]

At the Risk of being well out of line- I owe this to you- btw- because many years earlier you shared a position sizing approach with me that i feel directly reigned in my desire for gains combined with reckless trading-
It would appear that you are now taking on a very sizeable 'bet' on a single leveraged position-
If this was just in your trading account- OK- go for it- The trading account should be secondary- But you also employ this approach in your IRA account-
I personally feel that the trading account one has should be used to strive for exceptional results- While the IRA account should be the continual investment- and lower risk to achieve a long term goal- Obviously- the choice is yours to make - but i would be remiss in not taking a moment to tap you on the shoulder and ask "Why" you are taking this level of RISK in both accounts. Yes- the choice is all yours....

I've always appreciated your input- very reasoned- and I've known you for a long time-

I would like to ask you - should you choose to explain- the rationale behind this type of gambling behavior with such oversized bets on a single position?
This seems out of character-

Best of luck! SD

[bankedout]

Thank you for the tap on the shoulder sd.

I am currently following very few items, as I have limited time to devote to financial markets right now. I'm following: Volatility, Crude Oil, Natural Gas, Silver, and Treasuries. They all have leveraged long and short ETFs that I can use to take positions.

Of those, I felt Silver was/is the clearest trending market right now. It has been trading steadily down for a number of years. In addition, it keeps providing little entry points that I like to add to my position.

When we look at trading there is usually a direct correlation between risk level and reward level. Meaning that instruments which vary in price greatly, have a larger chance for an out-sized gain, and an out-sized loss, than instruments which do not vary in price much.

In the ideal world, you would be able to find a tight entry point (with a close realistic stop), and have the chance at riding this instrument to a large gain. My recent trade in Crude Oil played out that way. Silver has not, and may not.

The other option you point out is to "conservatively invest" more along the lines of Benjamin Graham or Warren Buffett. This takes an enormous amount of time to do. Researching companies, industries, and then waiting years for stocks to pay off all of your hard work at analyzing conditions. I simply do not have the time to do anything like this right now, and frankly I don't have an interest in this type of trading.

Have you ever heard the saying?: Put your eggs in one basket, and watch that basket very closely.

I believe it came from an old American Industrialist. I'm not sure exactly who said it.

I guess that is what I am doing here.

If I had more trading ideas, I would spread the money around a bit. However, right now, this is the best one that is in front of me right now.

Could Silver gap against me, and cause a significant loss? Yes. I acknowledge that risk, and accept the risk.

Precious metals have been weak for a while, and I believe that if Silver can get past all of this futzing around, it could weaken greatly. To the tune of a significant profit.


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As you can see from the weekly chart of DSLV, it can show significant price variance over time.

I believe the risk/reward ratio between my stop level, and a potential gain is worthwhile.

I appreciate the head's up, and word of caution.

Thank you again for sharing your input.

[ira85]

Once again an interesting discussion. Thanks guys.

As for the quote, it seems to be attributed to both Andrew Carnegie and Mark Twain. It's not clear who was first with it.

Put all your eggs in the one basket and --- WATCH THAT BASKET.
Pudd'nhead Wilson, Pudd'nhead Wilson's Calendar, Chap. 15, about 1894, Mark Twain

-ira

[bankedout]

Jul 13, 2015 10:24:16 GMT -5 bankedout said:

My conditional buy order for DSLV triggered today and I was filled at $62.56 for about 20% of my trading account.

My conditional sell order triggered for DSLV and I was sold out at $63.42 today.