bankedout's trading journal

[bankedout]

I ended 2008 with a single stock position (ANCI) and the vast majority of my account value in cash.

My account performance for 2008 was + 14.4%

As a reference point, my 2007 account performance was + 15.4%

I missed a lot of opportunities to profit this year. It is rare to get such volatility, and I'm disappointed that I barely participated in any of it. However, staying disciplined kept me out of harm's way. Overall, I'm somewhat satisfied with this year's results.

During the past 2 years, I have dedicated almost all of my time when the markets are open to personal business rather than trading. I would love to do some shorter term trading, but at this point in my life I have to remain focused on building my business.

I will keep you posted with my activity for 2009 in this thread.

[dg]

bankedout:

I think a lot of people would have killed to have your performance for 2008. I hope this thread means that you are going to continue either trading or papertrading a system in public.

BTW, if you don't mind saying, what kind of business are you trying to build? Just curious.

dg

[bankedout]

dg,

Yes, I do plan to post all of my trades to this thread. I will also have some other posts about market direction, trade ideas, and strategies.

I started a business in 1995. You can view our website here:

www.adv-finishing.com/

The site is a work in progress, but you should be able to understand the basics from it.

We also have another division where we sell products to door manufacturers. Our window kits end up in clean rooms of pharmaceutical and biotechnology companies.

[bankedout]

It is time to move the trailing quarterly sell stop for ANCI. This is a bit tricky. The Q3 2008 low of $4.40 was violated on 10/10/2008 I have my sell stops set up to trigger when the ask price hits my stop value. On 10/10/2008 the stock traded as low as $4.02 however the ask price never made it below $4.40, so my stop did not trigger. In reality there was probably one market sell order that went off at the bid price. I did look at an intraday chart that day, and it showed the lowest "real" transaction at $5.26 The $4.02 trade did not even show up on the chart.

So, I'm going to move my stop to just below the $5.26 low. The next down swing in Q4 2008 hit a low of $5.50 on 11/25/2008 This shows some support for the stock near that price and verifies that the trade would be most likely broken if price goes below my stop level.

As a reference I purchased ANCI back when the symbol was XSI on 6/20/2008 for $4.0599 per share. I sold half of my position when my trailing monthly sell stop triggered on 10/7/2008 at $6.57

[sd]

Like the quality message on your site- I hope your business will withstand this economic downslide we're heading for.
I too look forward to your journal- when you have the opportunity-SD

[dg]

bankedout:

Great looking website! Looks like you have something really good going on. Good luck growing your business.

dg

[bankedout]

It's the end of Q1 2009, so it is time to move the trailing sell stop for ANCI. It goes just under the quarterly low of $6.40 and is set at $6.39.

As a reference I purchased ANCI back when the symbol was XSI on 6/20/2008 for $4.0599 per share. I sold half of my position when my trailing monthly sell stop triggered on 10/7/2008 at $6.57

I know my activity is boring, but I expect more action at some point in the future.

[bankedout]

Today my sell stop triggered for ANCI and I exited at $6.37 I made a nice return on this stock.

Now I'm back to totally flat in my account. However I am watching energy commodities and considering going long crude oil and possibly natural gas.

[sd]

A very nice return Banked out- your patience was rewarded.

Commodities in general are performing as the world seems to be making up it's mind that perhaps the bottom isn't going to fall completely out.
I've entered into a variety of commodity related positions-GGB, SQM, AGQ, NLC, and a small spec position Friday in UEC with a $2.10 entry and a $ 1.70 stop for a quick Atlantic City - Normally I wouldn't go here, but it's a small position and chart-wise it caught my eye intraday.

I just took a position in UNG this week, it is a late performer, but had good buying volume this week. If it drops below this week's low and goes below $13 I'll likely be stopped out. The prior low was $12.69. It is my sole losing position at present- but then again, Monday morning hasn't arrived yet LOL!

I'm also considering a base position in DBC- From what I understand, it holds a wide range of DBA (agriculture) commodities, as well as exposure to Alum, Gold, and OIL.
It just moved above the $21.50 range and gapped higher Friday, however, it is not extended on a weekly basis and I think i
may take this trade .
Are you considering a specific stock(s) or an ETF in the energy sector? Good Luck, SD

[bankedout]

UNG for natural gas exposure and DXO &/or USL for crude oil exposure.

[bankedout]

Honestly I can't even remember the last time I bought a financial instrument.

This evening I put in an order to buy GRZZX at the market (I think tomorrow's closing price?) for about 10% of my account value.

I know I basically exited early in the last bear market. Then as the market bottomed out I was getting ready to buy as prices approached historically low valuations. However they stopped falling just before my line in the sand. Then out of nowhere this bull market starts and I keep thinking we will pull back to test the lows. Never happened. As the bull gained steam, I realized that I missed the bottom. Prices continued higher and I could not rationalize paying what the market was charging. I think it is massively overpriced.

So I missed the entire bull run.

Now I think the bull is on it's last legs. GRZZX had a positive test of low (lower blue line on chart below) and then it closed above a previous high today (upper blue line on chart below). By my technical analysis, that means to start buying. If I am correct, the financial instrument will continue up in price for a bit and then retreat to test this level from above. That would be buying opportunity #2 to add to the position.

If this doesn't happen, and the instrument fails to move higher, I am wrong. If we crash through the lower blue line, I was way off in my interpretation.

Like SD I'm going to do a bit of trading by the seat of my pants here (no hard and fast rules).

I'm so rusty though.....

[sd]

Hi Bankedout
Good time to enter - I also believe the market has been long overdue to correct- but it had continued to prove me wrong each time I stepped in early. Looks solid on the weekly chart now..

If you don't mind my asking, You have selected a fund vs an etf. There must be an advantage, and all I can come up with is perhaps the fund is actively managed?

Are you setting a % profit target on the market retracement?

Good Luck with your Trade! SD

[bankedout]

I chose a mutual fund instead of an ETF because I want to trade a bit longer term. Maybe average holding period weeks to months. The ETFs I am aware of are designed for holding periods of days or less. It is possible that there are products on the market that would suit my needs, which I am not aware of.

I do not have a % retracement target or goal. I guess I will let the market tell me what it thinks fair valuation is. However, in my estimation of fair value, we could retrace more than 100% of the bull move. Not to say that will pan out.

Thanks for your well wishes.

[bankedout]

This has been a lucky start so far. I was filled at a much better price than when my signal occurred and then immediately after I am filled the next day is strongly in my favor. Hopefully this is a sign of things to come!

Entered GRZZX at $4.94 on 10/29/09

[bankedout]

My Uncle gave me a gift subscription to Forbes magazine. In the most recent issue I saw an article that made sense to me:

www.forbes.com/forbes/2009/1130/finance-recession-consumer-economy-financial-strategy_print.html

Now if my GRZZX trade would move in the right direction!