bankedout's trading journal

[blygh]

Interesting article - I think that deflation will characterize the next few years - remember Supply Side economics as the cure for inflation? - now it is working too well - Desperate companies will produce at any price just to maintain solvency - this is especially true of the third world - I guess this is the price of too rapid increase in productivity - too little production = inflation--- too much production=deflation - add to that Schilling's expected fall in aggregate demand - But if that is all true and people start saving more ... what are they going to do with the money?? Savings accounts?? Saving bonds?? the stock market?? - maybe we will lend it to Dubai??

[bankedout]

I probably should be closing my position here with GRZZX setting fresh lows. However the Russell 2000, the Dow, and the S&P 500 are not confirming with new highs.

I hope I don't get steamrolled here!

This will almost certainly be a losing year for me.....

[bankedout]

The Russell 2000 closed at a new yearly high today.

So I submitted my order to sell my GRZZX

I was wrong.

Hopefully I will have some better trades in 2010

[sd]

I also would have been inclined to take a short position, thinking the market has been overly pushed up here-and that it would only be a matter of time until the manipulation that is the support would fail-and common sense would prevail- but I would have been proven wrong as well.
Unfortunately, that has been my perception of what the market should do- for most of this year's rally- And it is contrary to what the market believes- .....
I think it is good you have the discipline to close the position despite your 'belief' about the market. Too many traders want to be proved 'right' at any cost, and wouldn't sell, allowing their "belief" to keep them in a position.

And for some weird reason, I am unable to connect to any other IE tab-with a half dozen attempts- suspect I have a xmas present/virus wreaking havoc in the background on my computer- - and so posting here- A safe and Merry christmas wish to all- here- SD

[bankedout]

Exited GRZZX at $4.50

Will look to re-enter at some point in the future.

[bankedout]

In 2009 I ended my account -1.1% I believe 2009 is my first losing year since the year 2000 (which was my first year).

I only did one trade in 2009, but lost money on a mark to market basis with my only holding of 2008 losing value before I sold it in 2009.

So for 2 years in a row my account went opposite of most peoples.

On a long term basis I am still very satisfied with my results and I think 2010 will show a return to positive gains for me.

I hope to have more activity in 2010. For some reason I didn't click with the action in 2009.

[bankedout]

The only year I can't find is 2002 and I can't locate my IB account # or password, so I think those records are gone for good. I do remember it being a mediocre year and not a repeat of 2001. I see that my memory is poor and 2009 was definitely not my first losing year since 2000.

In 2000 I entered the scene during the splat and bought a dot com that eventually went bankrupt. In 2001 I sold that dot com for a buck a share and reloaded my account. I consider it my first year of active trading, and it was a doozy.

2001 +240.3%
2002 unknown
2003 -1.5%
2004 -1.1%
2005 +5.1%
2006 +24.3%
2007 +15.4%
2008 +14.4%
2009 -1.1%

I tried a number of different strategies over the years to determine what best fits my personality. I think short term trading with a narrow focus on 1-2 candidates is the best fit for me. Unfortunately I don't have the time to do this technique at this point in life.

2003 forward is in my IRA account. I think that makes me more cautious. I'm considering pulling out my contributions and just keeping the house money in the account and then going back to a very aggressive style.

[bankedout]

I purchased ADK today. I had a buy stop set at $4.31 which triggered and I was filled at $4.35 I used a little less than 10% of my account value in the purchase. The stock is thinly traded, so I won't buy any additional shares.

[bankedout]

I purchased CBEH today. I had a buy stop set at $8.76 and I was filled at $8.89 I used about 11% of my account in the purchase.

Clearly the "breakout" point I picked was incorrect. There was no follow through.

I have zero tolerance for stocks not performing to my expectations. I have an exit stop set a penny below today's low. It is do or die for CBEH.

[sd]

I wouldn't say the breakout point was incorrect- most likely held back by the larger Asian market sell-off that also occurred today. Hard for anything to gain headway when the tide is going out. As you are aware, that's an extremely tight stop with today's low well above the fast ema. on a daily chart.
Congrats -your ADK trade is performing well!
SD

[bankedout]

I agree that the stop is extremely tight. I went back over my trading records and found that at my peak performance my average loss was 1-2% on a losing position. However, back then I was watching intraday and could act as soon as something did not seem right. Still, it makes sense to me to exit if the premise of the trade is broken. Sooner rather than later.

The premise for the trade was that $8.75 had turned back prices a few times this month and was seemingly a significant short term barrier. I thought that if price could move above that level, there would be a good chance of attacking the May 2008 & January 2010 highs. If enough demand was shown, I thought a breakout could carry prices to new all time highs. At that point nobody is underwater with positions, and there is a chance that price can move up nicely with sufficient demand.

I knew that most Chinese stocks have been weak for a while. FXI peaked on 11/16/2009 and has been trading down since. However there are a few Chinese stocks that have been strong, and I thought this one (and perhaps SHE) had/have a chance to move higher regardless of the tide.

I would prefer to operate in a strong sector/industry/country environment, but I'm going to take whatever opportunities I find that I like.

Thanks for your input, and yes I am happy with how ADK has been performing. That was a nice breakout with follow through.

[bankedout]

My sell stop triggered in CBEH today and I was filled at $8.63

Results for the trade: purchase $8.89 sold $8.63 loss of -2.9%

I also deleted my buy stop for SHE

[bankedout]

My sell stop triggered for ADK today. It was set a penny below yesterday's low ($5.49) and I was filled at $5.60 & $5.6001, amazingly with price improvement.

Results of the trade: purchased at $4.35 sold at $5.60 gain of +28.7%

I didn't have a sell stop in ADK before yesterday's broad based market sell off. I put one in this morning, just in case the market continued lower. It did not, but ADK weakened. I had originally planned to sell most or all of my position if the stock made it to the mid $6 level or if it started to act poorly. I thought that the stock was on it's way to that level to get the warrants called (it still may be).

I'm glad I exited CBEH when I did.

[sd]

Timely exit on CBEH., at a minimal loss.
Nice profit locked in with ADK.

I think this is a good breakout strategy in an indecisive , non-trending market, or in an extremely volatile one. Loss prevention being #1.
Any thoughts on a reentry in the same trade if stopped out intraday, yet the stock closes higher?

My one comment would be it is obviously dangerous to not have any stop in place at all, whether the market seems benign or not. If you have the time to monitor your trades in real time, not an issue, But, it never hurts to have a trailing stop in place should some "News" item send the stock &/or market plunging intraday. Just safety insurance against the unanticipated gyrations imo.
SD

[bankedout]

I think it is no problem to re-enter a stock you have been stopped out of. So long as there is a valid reason for re-entry. You don't want to do it just for revenge.

I do have the ability with Think or Swim to attach orders to my entry order. Meaning I could enter with a buy stop and have a sell stop immediately placed at the time of execution. I could do something arbitrary such as 2% below the breakout level. This would make sense because my trading definition of a breakout is price moves through the line in the sand, continues in the direction it is supposed to, and never re-visits the breakout level. If that doesn't happen, my trade is invalid.

Using that definition of breakout, will cause me to miss some moves. Sometimes stocks breakout, run out of gas, dip back a bit, and then re-launch. That type of scenario will frustrate me, but I can't develop a strategy to succeed in every situation.