|
|
Post by bankedout on Jul 24, 2015 17:54:21 GMT -5
My portfolio as of 7/24/15:  |
|
|
|
Post by bankedout on Jul 27, 2015 14:57:49 GMT -5
My buy stop triggered for DWTI today, and I was filled at $70.08 for about 20% of my account value. I had to sell a small portion of my shares of DWTI in my taxable trading account to raise cash for living expenses. I felt this was a good short term juncture with the instrument priced in my favor, and I don't think I could wait for a counter trend move and then a rebound to raise cash. So I was sold out for a small portion at $126.16 today. |
|
|
|
Post by bankedout on Jul 27, 2015 15:04:10 GMT -5
I currently have 2 trading accounts, a Roth IRA, and a taxable individual account. I also have 2 positions that are not listed on my portfolio updates. I have 200 shares of FUTU from a stock dividend I received long ago (WZE/FU spinoff). They are in my IRA account, and I view them as free lottery tickets. I track FUTU, and if it ever spikes up, I will sell them. I also have 2 shares of WFM in my individual account which I purchased when I worked there through an employee stock purchase plan. I sold my 2 shares of WFM today to raise cash for living expenses. It was either that or sell more DWTI (or sell some DSLV), which I did not want to do. I don't feel confident about WFM, especially in this weak market for US Equities. FUTU has perked up lately. I guess they are going to merge with some other company, and spin off some more stock for me. So I will own a spinoff of a spinoff come September. My thoughts at this juncture are that I will sell my FUTU at the spinoff and ride the next stock as my lottery ticket. We'll see how that pans out. |
|
|
|
Post by bankedout on Aug 1, 2015 8:08:44 GMT -5
My portfolio as of 7/31/2015:  My thoughts are the Silver longs must be tossing and turning at night. Do they pay no attention to the other metals? Oh my! My guess is their days are numbered, and they are standing in front of a giant freight train. How can Silver stand alone?!!!! Surely this will pass. My guess is we head to the single digits when all is said and done. |
|
ira85
New Member
Posts: 837
|
Post by ira85 on Aug 2, 2015 12:33:53 GMT -5
I noticed something I thought you might find interesting. A one year chart for KOL, GDX, and URA shows all three following almost exactly the same track. Three different miners, coal, gold, and uranium. Each with industry specific issues, but almost identical results. Mining has been a terrible investment for at least the past 2 years, regardless of the commodity being mined. -ira
|
|
|
|
Post by bankedout on Aug 3, 2015 11:02:17 GMT -5
Thank you for mentioning that ira. I have been watching individual mining stocks as well. It is fascinating to watch these things unravel. I watch both the commodities and the commodity related stocks. Maybe this downward trend will finally lead to capitulation? We shall see. For a little while, I thought the coal miner investors had capitulated, but I was wrong.
I think when selling finally does climax, there will be a good recovery bounce. One very worthwhile to trade. So, if you are not short these stocks or commodities, watch for a sign of capitulation. It might be something where you have to hold your nose while you buy. There will not be any good news to buy on.
My guess is, at that point, we will see a big bounce, and then they will become dead money for years.
Thank you for sharing your thoughts, and good trading to you!
|
|
|
|
Post by bankedout on Aug 7, 2015 15:31:00 GMT -5
My portfolio as of 8/7/2015:  Short crude oil continues to work well, and short silver is still like watching paint dry. I thought about reducing positions to create cash for long volatility, but I am going to wait and see a little bit more of what volatility trades like. With AAPL in trouble, long volatility could become a good place to be. |
|
|
|
Post by bankedout on Aug 7, 2015 16:45:53 GMT -5
While I am a bit frustrated that it is taking so long for Silver to unravel, I keep watching the other metals. Platinum offers hope to me:  click for larger image I believe Platinum is leading the way down for the metals. Copper is starting to weaken further, Gold broke all support, and Palladium is even weak. In my opinion, it can't be too much longer until the Silver longs throw in the towel. |
|
|
|
Post by bankedout on Aug 12, 2015 15:59:44 GMT -5
Silver and other precious metals have strengthened recently. I decided at least for now, to give the benefit of the doubt to the long term trend holding strong, and looking at this as a short term counter trend move. Of course I have a stop in place in case I am wrong, but viewing the long term trend, I have to use a wider than normal stop level.
This isn't really the position I want to be in. Ideally you make a trade, and it goes in your direction for a while. Kind of like how Crude Oil has went for me.
So, I didn't have a tight stop on my Silver short, and we are past the point where one would exit the trade short term (Maybe $14.36 SLV?)
We will see how this all pans out. Rallies in commodities can sometimes get pretty wild. I could end up with my wide stop getting hit for a decent sized loss, only to watch Silver reverse and head back in the direction I thought it would all along.
It is always interesting!
|
|
|
|
Post by sd on Aug 13, 2015 19:26:20 GMT -5
7.24 seems to be the recent reversal -low point for Copper, Gld, Slv-
The fact that CU has developed a price range and not exceeded that prior low is odd - while FCX continued to go lower-
I think with China's market in a significant drop- and future growth prospects coming in lower- but FXI is appearing to also hold sideways here- at least up to the present- Are things not as 'bad' in China as some would suggest/
Are GLD & SLV getting some buyers finally because of concerns about the value of the dollar/Yuan?
Leveraged positions require the stomach to withstand the wider volatility swings-
There is also the element of possible decay/tracking - the longer you hold- How well does DSLV hold up over time to tracking SLV?
I think there will be a lot of uncertainity over the next month or two- Concerns about the FED-rate increase- Dollar valuation & effects on the US multinationals- Ongoing Europe/Greece concerns- as well as concerns about Asia/China-Perhaps - at these deeply lower valuations- Gold & silver will find buyers seeking a 'safe-haven' trade for investment .
Note that even the hedged trades- HEDJ, DXJ, are not performing well- Perhaps the market is getting concerned about financial engineering- finally.
Perhaps SLV -is finally becoming short-term oversold- Has lost 2/3 of it's value since 2011.
Good Luck - I hope your long trade works- but stock up on some Rolaids for the interim!
Let me add that personally I have just been in cash for some months- My Rolaids jar got empty earlier this year!
|
|
|
|
Post by bankedout on Aug 14, 2015 10:50:39 GMT -5
Thank you for sharing your thoughts sd. FCX is in to both Copper and Gold mining I believe. Both metals have been weak for quite some time, and I imagine their business prospects aren't looking that great with metals trading at these prices.  click for larger image Copper shows the same Support becomes Resistance as Platinum. Gold seems to be behind Copper and Platinum:  click for larger image We could possibly be seeing a mini test right now, of how prior support will act. Silver is the oddball of the group. Still trading at or near old lows, having not dipped below prior support levels. I won't comment on the reasons behind any of this. Commodities can sometimes trend for long periods of time (years). If there is sufficient reason for the trend to change, we will see the actions of buyers and sellers on our price charts. |
|
|
|
Post by bankedout on Aug 15, 2015 9:54:43 GMT -5
My portfolio as of 8/14/2015:  |
|
|
|
Post by bankedout on Aug 17, 2015 10:41:42 GMT -5
My buy stop triggered for DWTI today, and I was filled at $70.08 for about 20% of my account value. I had to sell a small portion of my shares of DWTI in my taxable trading account to raise cash for living expenses. I felt this was a good short term juncture with the instrument priced in my favor, and I don't think I could wait for a counter trend move and then a rebound to raise cash. So I was sold out for a small portion at $126.16 today. I sold some more DWTI today in my cash account to raise funds for auto insurance and living expenses. I believe this sale closes out this lot of DWTI, so all future sales will be based on a different lot for this account. My IRA account position of DWTI remains intact. I was sold out at $165.58 |
|
|
|
Post by bankedout on Aug 22, 2015 11:41:41 GMT -5
My portfolio as of 8/21/2015:  I feel torn about what to do with Silver short. I think what I need to do is tighten the stop and let the market decide what is best. I want to have some buying power to take advantage of trades in Volatility and Natural Gas. I still think the path of least resistance for Silver is down, and that it could easily get priced in the single digits if/when the metal starts moving down in price. However, the trade is dead money right now, and looking around there are some potentially great opportunities for trading on the horizon. |
|
|
|
Post by bankedout on Aug 24, 2015 18:51:29 GMT -5
 click for larger image I have to think that all of the traders who have been trading Natural Gas in the big trading range I circled on the monthly chart above, have to be thinking about what is going on with Crude Oil prices lately. I have this feeling that the longs are becoming a little anxious about holding Natural Gas, and the shorts may be licking their chops thinking about what will happen if/when prices drop out of the current trading range. I am seriously considering reducing some of my short Silver exposure to free up cash for short Natural Gas. Could it hit $1.00? I think $1.50 is not out of the question, and $1.00 is certainly possible. |
|
