SD's - Final Shot-2013-

[sd]

To Paraphrase poorly-
The Fed giveth, and the Fed refuses to Take Away!-- No Taper!
Hail the FED!
The real take-a-way is that we are a Fed moved market- not a Fundamentals market- and if the Fed now feels that Tapering is not imminent, then the Economy is inDEED IN a tenuous condition-
Although long in my trading account, but with stops ready, I was largely out of the market in my IRA , seeking the security of not being at Risk in a normally poor market period-
It was really a Crap shoot going into today's Fed meeting-And many market pundits got it wrong.
So we have a massive Rally today- What happens in the next week or two as discussion of the Budget, and the market fundamentals come into greater focus?
Again, one needs to focus on the chart, Not one's Bias-
We're all on the Carousel constructed by the Fed over the past 4 years- The Fed policy has often been called a unique experiment-with Bernake determined to not repeat the Great Depression disaster-

Eventually, this could all end badly, but that is my distrust forming my bias to view things that way- It is likely best to simply dance as long as the music plays, and be prepared to take a chair when it eventually stops-

[sd]

Some final thoughts as we look at the charts of positions we own and view the big upside bars that occurred today.
I was ready to stop out on a position I had in VNQ- A REIT-
What a large bullish bar higher! Actually, almost every chart has that large bullish bar higher that is wider than anything seen in recent times! Almost everything closed at it's High!
I think it would be prudent to sell everything at the market open-While the enthusiasm is still in full force-and before any negativity sneaks in.
Do I dare consider- Yes- Do I execute? I have decided YES,
On this Huge bullish move higher I am going to sell the open at Market - and I hope to catch a gap open higher on ALL positions-
Despite the fact that i initiated a IBB position today-
Torn between the Twin forces of HOPE and Greed-and knowing that the outcome result is simply the psychology of the other market traders- Am I exiting too soon?
What would be the downside to hold a position with a trailing stop-loss?
In the trading account, I can access funds in 3 days-
If I place a sell order, perhaps I will catch a momentum open move even higher above the close. Worth a try IMO.
It will be interesting to see the results......
I've elected to sell 1/2 at the open

[sd]

With a new day, I have decided to try to be more methodical - vs simply selling 1/2 at the open-
I will set a limit sell for 1/2 at a high price, and see how the market opens. I will try to adjust my morning break to allow me to be at the computer following the open. I would like to see at least a 10% target on each 1/2 position- but don't have any idea if the market will provide that kind of boost this week. Will play it by ear.

[sd]

welllll, hOW DID THAT PLAY OUT?
Not as anticipated-
Apparently the enthusiasm and strong close yesterday lost it's glamour overnight- Most positions immediately started to decline from the open- I was not able to adjust my schedule- and about 11 am got to see what the trend looked like, and I set stops below that hour's low- I really had at least expected a yet higher open- opportunity to lock in on that greedy gap higher-
DXJ was the only position that gapped higher
Stops were hit on 5 positions- 4 closing out completely-BIB,EWZ,EWA,VGK
DXJ sold 1/2, IBB I left a stop @ 207 (entry area) .
We'll see where the market goes as it reassesses the meaning of the Fed's lack of initiating the Taper.

[sd]

My remaining DXJ 1/2 position sold today at my stop price $48.50.
I am still holding IBB with a stop-loss at my entry $207.50
The market closed even lower-Bullard spoke and the mkt didn't care for it.
So will history repeat? The market hits a new high and then sells off
significantly?
Seasonality favors a pullback here.
According to one clip I saw, stocks are now at the higher end of PE valuation- Around 20x earnings-And Buffet says stocks are 'fairly valued'
Along with the debate on getting the US budget overdraft passed-
We've heard that song before- a lot of political rhetoric-just added market uncertainty.
I'll be trading with the faster chart and tighter leash for a while-

[blygh]

I think a lot of mutual funds are taking profits to look good for quarterly performance. Having said that I still do not see what is, or could. going to drive the market higher. I agree with Byron Weems who said on CNBC that there is simply inadequate demand. For a fixed market, any increase in profits depends on increases in productivity. Hence I look at companies with increasing revenue per employee - not easy to find DOV OMG DNR are in my portfolio but may decline with the general market - but then where do you put the money you took out??

[sd]

I'm not sure what drives the market higher, but the market has continued to do so for the past 4 years, and all of those (MYSELF) that found reasons to be suspect of the market's continued advance have been late getting back in on each exit, as the market turns back higher.
For myself, I can make plenty of arguments WHY Friday's weakness should continue lower-but then again, look at all the past reasons the markets could have sold off and refused to do so.
So, i'll look to a continuation of the present bullish trend resuming and plan to reenter as it occurs-
Of course, I have 3 days to wait for trades to clear and only enough cash for 1 full position. or 2 partial entries..
In the Ameritrade account, I am still long the 5 positions, but now with a tighter stop under the losing VNQ REIT. I will likely initiate stops on those 4 remaining profitible positions to protect the entry, View with the Weekly chart .
Good Luck!

[sd]

www.youtube.com/watch?v=TrXLFTNoBng
Brooks is a price action trader-
He has written a number of books, a price action purist- and actively trades. He is not an exciting speaker-, but his technical view of price action is worth a view. On position sizing, he recommends that trade with a position size that if the trade is a loser, you don't care-
He appears to apply wide stops on some of the trade examples.
He talks about part of the psychology of finding the type of trading that one is psychologically in tune with.

[sd]

YES - I actually learned to make a video about an element of trading and up-loaded it to You Tube.
A friend had made a limit order trade to go Long AAPL as it was heading lower- and i simply disagreed with the concept of considering a long entry at that point. I strongly feel that one needs to be trading with the prevailing trend, and if the trend is lower, one should take shorter term entries with lesser risks.
Not a very smooth video, but consider the content- the message i was trying to convey.
Comments welcome- You won't hurt my feelings- I simply felt that by using a video illustration, I would be better able to convey the concept of waiting to see a reversal of the trend in the desired direction, would greatly improve the trading result-
This was a very easy download of EZVID.com- I had to upload at the lowest setting.
It seems to me that a video can better illustrate a concept than simply written text-
www.youtube.com/watch?v=UUE6Mw53sNY&feature=youtu.be

[blygh]

Neat video, sd. I think the AAPL bounce off 448 or so in mid Sept was short covering - there was significant price decline - as you pointed out below support level - Unfortunately we only get short rations twice a month.
Blygh

[sd]

Thank you-An Awkward first exercise- but my friend got the point I was illustrating- As it was, Pre video- he had already sold his position - after holding it for a $10 loss, as price moved back above the entry, he sold it for a $10 gain (2%) -


Interestingly- AAPL is now knocking this new release out of the park-AAPL moves higher while the market goes lower!
Haven't seen that in quite a while!
That is a positive sign for AAPL to buck the market tide- Hope it holds.

[sd]

A short 30 minute video on the economic cycle-Worth watching
www.cnbc.com/id/101055852

[sd]

Here we are on September 30, with a theatrical congress holding the budget hostage- but the real play will occur on Oct 17-
When the debt ceiling debate has to be resolved.
A market pullback would serve my purpose of allowing me to put back to work cash I withdrew prematurely-
However, Is America simply going to say- "This is just a rewind of a bad movie we've seen before- and it ends well anyways. Yawn, Ho HUm." No big spike in the Vix- No Panic. Forget the US Gov't-
Hail the FED!
While thousands of regular Americans may find themselves with a temporary shut down, and missed paycheck, and tens of thousands of others find their downstream businesses affected; as I understand it, the Senators and Congress continue to get their paychecks delivered on time
So, Congress and associates will feel none of the financial interruption in their lives- And they do not have to find themselves selecting from the Obama Health Care thanks to an exemption for them? Certainly seems like a dbl standard in play here....
Let's face it- My Opinion- Our Healthcare System costs increase disproportionally to inflation, Coverage is outrageously expensive for an individual- and the US of A is last in healthcare for it's citizens compared to the major industrialized countries-
If you are fortunate enough to have employer sponsored coverage or work for the gov't, it's not a big deal- That is not the case for many other Americans though-
And why should the US Gov't not have to choose from the same menu as the rest of America?
My 2 bits-

[sd]

How about looking at utilities? XLU-
Banked out had posted a chart of FCG a week earlier- it has indeed popped higher in that time- and today UNG gapped higher-

Will a play on Nat Gas have strength if the rest of the market pulls back?
I'm trailing the price decline in FCG with a buy-stop now @ 19.26.
It's also in an industry that likely will find strength in the months ahead.
I'm playing with this type of trade based on a price upside reversal- as investors look to find a safer trade.

[sd]

I was hoping for a greater stand-off and a further decline-
It appears that the parties understand how disruptive this Budget fiasco and lack of debt extension.has been- We will see if they can actually put aside their gamesmanship and do what is best for the US Economy- Instead of leading us to the brink of disruption and massive uncertainty, reassure us that we can work through our differences and lead by example.
I had been flat in my IRA, put 25% back to work on this pullback.
In the trading account, I went long both UNG and FCG at the open- , Nat gas has been holding up.
The resolution of the debt issue will help with Europe- VGK,
Added EWA on bullish China, SDIV - should have been in the ira and not the trading acct-, and XBI as a bounce off of oversold-
SD