SWIFTLY TRADING SLOWLY LONGER TERM

[sd]

Hmm -lost the message i had been writing-Another bit of flotsam in cyber space......
As i reviewed my account(s) - i find the trading account has mediocre-but somewhat profitable- performance- PJP & PBE
I am intending to fill one vacant position - possibly with SDIV- a dividend paying global etf.
In another separate account with Ameritrade- I had funded a Roth IRA with $5k for the calendar year- and selected 5 commission free ETF's to invest in -equal weight-Approx $1,000.00 per position. This was a trial approach, and i initiated it with 5 separate ETF's and monitored the progress somewhat-
I lost 10% on one position over a period of months, and made a slight net $200.00 profit on the remaining positions.
I sold all the positions in January 2014, and in Feb 2014 elected i would simply invest in a single equity/ETF- I chose VIG- Vanguard Dividend Appreciation fund, and following a pullback, I purchased in 3 separate trades at no commission in Feb- 2-05, 2.06, 2.11- Price appreciating with each trade. The YTD return of Vig is under 5%, but my Feb purchases on a pullback represent a 10.68% net gain this year as my entries followed a price retracement. Vig seems to have reacted similarly to the market movements of SPY, but SPY has 2x the YTD return. I took the VIG position without any stop losses, allowing the position to fluctuate with the market. To date today, the return of the past 7 months isw 10.68% not including 2 dividend distributions of approx $50.00 total. I believe VIG is US securities focused, and i want additional exposure to the international dividend market-SDIV mAY BE the ETF of choice to accomplish this.

[sd]

As i regain some interest for involvement in the market, I note that there is much discussion occurring concerning concerns over an over anticipated market correction that is getting long overdue. "http://www.etfexpert.com/etf_expert/2014/09/how-etf-investors-can-prepare-for-a-10-correction.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+EtfExpert+%28ETF+Expert%29"
The question becomes how much upside is there now compared to the possible downside if & WHEN an overdue correction actually occurs. I took some time tonight to place stop-losses in the trading account on the positions held- designed to give some small downside, but to lock in some profitability/gains at the same time. I have been holding positions without stop-losses for some time, and should consider myself fortunate that the market has been favorable for that ostrich approach.
In the investment account, i 've reviewed charts and reduced the size of a few positions, increasing the cash % to approx 50%-This is due to these positions having some solid gains and yet the charts suggest that the steady uptrend has indeed paused back in August. I have held a decent cash position (% wise) for quite some time and have missed out on the larger cash position in this ongoing bull market by taking the "safe" approach. Ultimately, If one has some time on their side, (5+ years) , they would likely be best served by not being too cautious in a diversified portfolio. Even Vanguard Target Funds maintain a 30% equity exposure during retirement because of the need for portfolio growth in retirement- because bond positions barely hold their own in these rates.
As for the SDIV position noted in the prior post, it has been downtrending on the daily for the past week from a recent high- I want to allow it to come in further if so inclined before I consider taking a position in the trading account. The weekly chart is not notable, the daily chart suggests that a possible hammer at $25.50 is possible, but the 60 min chart shows no indication of an upside move yet. Since price is also not at any prior consolidation level, I am content to watch and see what occurs in the course of the next days-
I find it interesting that after this prolonged absence from trading (months) I can ease back into reviewing a few charts and thinking i can gain some insight into what may occur- I need to remind myself of how well that worked in the past- How much my personal Bias affected my perception- How thinking i can foresee the future movements of price based on the past movements-yet I was not able to effectively develop a strategy that with consistency would provide profitable trading results across different markets. I think I allowed my personal Bias to get in the way of an analytical approach- Yet, my tendency is to lock in short term profits and protect from losses- when perhaps that is what takes us out of the market and gives a hesitancy to get back in when things look bleakest and the reward is greatest. I think the Landry approach- lock in some short term gains but maintain a position to get the longer term gains is indeed the right approach for those that are oriented to trading-

[sd]

QCLN hit my raised stops, and I elected to raise tighter stops on both PJP and PBE> Trends do not look favorable.
I also put in a small order for a small cap short using illiquid SBB- Buy-stop entry 56.20, lmt 56.40 stop $54.90 .
I watched CNBC tonight for the 1st time in many months!
Why the short position? The Fed speaks this week and the market will react- Small caps appear most vulnerable to not only an increase in rates, but to weakness in the market.
Unfortunately, I am feeding my BIAS by considering this short trade. History tells me that when feeding my Bias it is also feeding my EGO, and that it is a nutrient deficient diet.LOL!

Months of being an absentee trader have been good for the account- I'll dabble a bit and see if I learned anything in the past vacancy. !

[sd]

With an initial upmove in SBB, market reacted favorably to the FED, I raised to a very tight stop on SBB and lost $7 ( I think) on the trade as it declined.
I have been watching SDIV- INtl exposure- dividend growth ETF- but tonight took some time and looked at TDIV tech dividend fund- Assuming it breaks $28 I will have a position started, although I am waiting for my remaining cash to clear to get to a full position size.
September is usually not a good month for stocks- but perhaps the Fed has erased the market historical symmetry- Not true in all the recent years. As a matter of fact- many of the market truths have been disrupted because of the Fed's involvement in the past years.
My other positions have rebounded, so I am still long ......
Gradually putting my toes back in- Where's that alligator?

[sd]

Alligator showed this week with some teeth!
Got everyone nervous with the markets pulling back- Myself included.
I took steps yesterday to protect profits on PJP & PBE and to reduce losses on TDIV & CURE (New partial position) .
I had to step back from the faster chart and adjust the stops wider based on the daily- CURE came with $.10 of hitting my stop-loss- and the experiment in selecting CURE was based on my recognition that it could have as much as a 25% decline- Why bother with a stop at all-?
The frustrating part of taking a new position is that you want it to proceed in your direction- but i got caught in TDIV on a spike above $28 hitting my buy-stop and then promptly rolling over and doing a 100 meter dive down.
CURE was similar- with a $110+ entry being filled on a bullish upmove fill followed by a decline.

This suggests a 'top' is in place- temporarily at least- Failed up moves dropping back..... The question becomes- how much lower is a swing down- and is this the actual market top for these positions?
The market this week was largely down, with mid day Friday seeing a small rebound higher-
There are many market concerns- including Bill Gross leaving Pimco, earnings, The Dollar, the FED etc- Perhaps the FED is still in the drivers seat and the US markets are still the best bet in a questionable world market?

[bankedout]

Sept 26, 2014 19:03:05 GMT -5 sd said:

Why bother with a stop at all-?

The lesson was taught in my trading journal this year!

[sd]

The Question of why bother with a STOP at all is a moot point if the market is always trending higher. A lot of that is determined by one's time frame and ability to withstand volatility.
As most of us have traded for some time, we have witnessed and felt the Market's ability to quickly wring out profits in a very short period in a market decline-

This is an interesting juncture here- it seems- There is the the never ending focus on what the FED means- interest rates- This has been the market driver the last few years-
We have slowing growth overseas, and concerns about Russia/Germany.
We now have a new scare of the "Ebola Virus" claiming a few lives- including a few voyagers that have reentered the US - One died.
Earnings are a concern as stocks are generally priced with the higher PE's.
Stock focused funds are declining with redemptions, and bond funds are seeing in flows- Investors are looking for safety in this moment of market uncertainty.
As i reviewed charts tonight, in the investment account, I took steps to reduce stock exposure and increase the bond exposure- The chart directions are clearly in different directions-
I've increased stops in the trading account, was taken out of TDIV, PBE today- PJP remains- along with a token TWTR trade of a few tracking shares.

As i asked myself If I wanted to exit the larger stock positions vs applying the unused cash to BUY- I simply do not feel that we are at enough reasons to think a bottom is nearby yet-
I know I'm giving in to my negative Bias- I've kept a 30% cash position waiting for a buying opportunity on a market decline- I don't follow the markets much, but this does not appear to be near a bottom yet-
I will now have an increased market cash position- I hope to see an additional 5% decline from here-
That is usually the signal for the market to rally and shrug off concerns and bounce higher-SD

[sd]

I've discussed this inclination before- that i assume most of us are inclined to trade in the direction of one's 'bias' vs trading the actual chart regardless of it's direction;
I don't think I've changed much in this regard- except i recognize now the futility of thinking that a minor pullback is not necessarily the beginning of the great decline- The predominant trend needs to be respected, and it's actual obituary has not yet been written and to date is premature.
That said, As all my positions stopped out last week, I did take a small short position in SDS- approx $25.80- as well as having greatly reduced my exposure to stocks in the investing account- and increased the bond position.
I raised the stops in SDS to just below each day's swing low- Now I should be adequately up into profitable territory-
I also took the liberty last week to raise stops on other accounts, as the market weakness seemed to be pervasive.

NOW- the question becomes- will the market decline an additional 5-10% to allow me the opportunity to take the sold funds and reinvest them at a lower cost- That is one way one can actually
maximise the swings of the market- If one is willing to try to 'time' the market swings.

Typically what will occur, is an active investor such as myself sees a market starting to enter a period of weakness- We think this is the start of something bigger, we bail out on the decline - down some -3-5% and then the market does a 180 degree turnabout- moving higher and entering the next leg of an uptrend- Does that sound familiar? With but a few exceptions, the market of the past 5 years has only rewarded those with a long position.

Eventually, the Bears will have their day , and will eventually see the decline they believe is ready to occur any day-
My attitude is to take a short position trade as a very short term momentum move that will fail tomorrow or the next day-or the next day- By playing the momentum, I am looking only at a fast chart, am raising each day's stop to just below the swing low of the present day- Once this short trade stops out, I will consider adding some long positions-
What i think is notable now is the increased up and down volatility swings-This is the province of day-traders to venture into- I seem to recall a period several years ago- May/June where the market had wild moves up and then down and back up- It is simply in one's best interest to recognize that cash preservation in an unknown market may be the most prudent decision one can take for one's longevity.
To take a 'bet' long or short is simply a guesstimate or act of Faith-
It makes sense to me to not fight to be proven 'right' . Is today's price action the sign of a bottom and resulting move higher? IF so, i missed the latest buy opportunity.

[sd]

The market was really volatile today, but tried to rally into the close- Looks like an exhaustion spike on SDS- & TLT as well. & UVXY. Stop raised to $27.40 with the expectation that it will get hit tomorrow at the open- Market rally tomorrow? IWM large bullish candle -
Wish I had an investment in Bankedout's horse this past week though!


Time to perhaps look to Buy some biotech/health ETF back- this Ebola scare is significant! I am working at a VET school, and some of the staff were quite agitated by the lock of following strict procedures that even they follow when dealing with contagions within the live-stock industry they work with.

From the 2 cents i gathered listening to CNBC pundits, the concerns are not simply Ebola- The recovery across the globe appears to be weaker than anticipated, concerns with Europe & Russia- China is slowing,, WMT warned despite the boost to the consumer of lower gas prices- I think the list goes on, glass could be half full or half empty depending on one's perspective- US stocks were indeed priced at the higher end of the historical range- Nice readjustment to a lower valuation across the board-Look at the hard selling of anything that fails to outperform- NFLX dropped by 1/3 today!
Airlines should have a great boost due to the cut in fuel prices affects 30% of their operational costs- but with weaker markets, travel may slow- global economy may slow- Deflation may set in.....................................................................................................................................................................etc.

Heard one CNBC contributor suggest that the market would be range bound and highly volatile for the next 12 - 18 months., Talk about a crystal ball!
Speculators thinking the FED will certainly have to adjust their policy approach to reassure the markets...
Cramer's not ready to declare this level down is a good "Investible" moment- meaning , he has a scoreboard of unresolved issues that suggest the market could see additional weakness.....He also adds that he thinks investors would do well in the long run to be buying a few percent down from where we are today......

GLD has made an attempt to upturn in the past week- Even Cramer mentioned adding to his small GLD position........

Let's assume this pullback will have enough momentum to match the 2011 decline- approx 15% - We still are only at a - 7% level to date.
Can we learn anything by looking back to 2011? In that decline, the major damage levels occurred in 4 weeks- with price going sideways and volatile for several months before choosing to move higher-
What transpired from that time, was progressively smaller pullbacks as the market trended higher- starting with several 10-11%, and then a more subdued series of 5% declines within a bull market- All of which were good buying opportunities. Hindsight and past charts make it seem easy to discern when each good buy and sell would occur- The reality, is that one cannot know with any certainty what the right turn of the page will bring-
No one expects- today- any reason for the markets to drop 40% due to an implosion of financial wizardry like we had leading up to the 2008 disaster. We don't view the Fed's rate policy intervention to be anything but benign- And so we should assume that the primary trend higher will eventually resume after some of the current issues are discounted by the market.
I have no idea where this ends up- I will presume that this will give a good buying opportunity in the days or weeks ahead- but it tends to feel like this is the moment where the nimble -more tactical approach may prove more prudent- But again, this is my BIAS clouding the vision the Fed policy will ultimately give us.

[sd]

SDS sold today as expected on the raised stop $27.39 @ 11:30 am
Presently I have no other open positions. Today's market action was benign,
I did find it interesting to view the price action with RENKO charts - although i also used the 2 hr candlesticks- For the RENKO charts, I also dropped down to a 15 minute time frame to be able to view
intraday price action and get a sense of where the momentum stalled, and more of the sideways action which you cannot see on a daily or weekly chart. Important to keep a sense of what time frame you are viewing- In this particular trade- Yesterday's market price action suggested a come back from deep levels down- so it seemed prudent to raise the higher stop.

The biotech index & healthcare indeed seemed to have paused in their decline- I don't think I'm ready to trade CURE though- but i may revisit PJP, PBE as trade candidates- I just noticed a large difference between the 2 on the weekly chart-PJP is showing a red hammer and is down at today's close about 6% from the recent high.
PBE is also down 6% after today's close- but with a bullish hammer- Trade wise- PBE looks better on the weekly.
Looking at a 2 hr PBE chart- It looks good for a possible BUY-stop- However-! Dropping down to a 30 minute chart- There was a mid day GAP move HIGHER!12:30 -1 pm.
The remainder of the day, price consolidated and left the gap open.
$45.62 for a BUY-stop with a $44.90 stop Risks 1.5% on the trade-
History in downtrends is full of bear Flags - where a short day or two rally appears and the decline resumes-
Conversely, I could try for a lower fill - say $44.50, with a lower stop if filled on it.
Since i have plenty of freed up cash available- I will place orders for both trades- The higher Buy-stop entry as well as the lower limit - For both trades i will allow a $1500 exposure- $3,000 total.

2 separate orders - 35 Buy stop /limit $45.62 limit $45.70 with a 1.5% trailing stop
35 limit $44.80- stop $43.80


Obviously, the advantage of viewing a short term candlestick chart is that one can see these gaps in price- The Renko would not show any gaps- but the Renko would have suggested the earlier buy had i been watching.....

As i look at some of the Investment account mutual funds, I find it informative that the growth fund AGTHX 46.80-42.80 a drop of $4.00 or - 8.5% from the Sept high to yesterday's low.
The fundamental investor fund- ANCFX- high was $55.27 to $50.65 low or a loss of 8.3% -

BRKB- Berkshire Hathaway- Warren Buffet's flagship for value investing- Had a high of 142.49, and a low of 132.00- a decline of 7.36%

Interesting times- I have the opportunity to stand aside and consider if i should be putting some of the investment $$$$ I took out back to work now- I should be able to exit work earlier on Friday and possibly make that decision before the market closes-- Note though- the market highs occurred weeks ago- The opportunity to have been really smart would have been to sell off some as price had reached a peak-say beginning of September....or in the final bounce higher-
Looking at SPY- It blew straight through the 190 swing low made in August without so much as a pause. It looks like the $182- $185 prior range has some merit for support- with $180 a break lower-
This indeed sets up some lower percent Risk trades, as you have a tentative bottom attempt, and a close swing low -
Unfortunately, I would prefer to see some time bottoming with some sideways action to feel that the selling has waned, buyers want back in-
This 2 day rally in Spy looks like a bear Flag? But, we had a gap down on volume and price has since moved higher- Let's see what Friday brings-

[sd]

A couple of weeks have passed since the prior post- Markets have rallied- and I'm again in CURE, (profitable) TDIV (profitable) Took profits as PJP & PBE declined- and came back in .Account is now at a new high- Should be the warning signal to SELL NOW! Rally is overextended- Fed will likely announce QE is dead.
Also TDIV- long TQQQ was a whipsaw-stop out-stop was way to close to normal volatility .
Went back long in the investment account as well - since i had raised some cash earlier- I had the opportunity to buy a bit more at a cheaper price, as well as putting some sidelines cash to work as well (Value buying)
I again went back into DTN in several separate Roth accounts- I held DTN previously- it is one of the "concept" etf's out there- In this case, it qualifies 100 companies- 10 per each sector- that meet it's criteria for purchase- and each position is evaluated every quarter, lagging positions are replaced- It also delivers a dividend- I think I had posted about this earlier in the thread- Instead of trying to manage 5 separate etf's- for the sake of 'managing, I went all in DTN and eliminated the remaining. I now own DTN in several accounts, simply easier to narrow the focus of one's attention..... It may certainly not be the best of dividend choices- I just thought the concept made sense. Again, the pullback was substantial enough I was able to lock in some initial gains, purchase more for less on the pullbacks, and am now above my entry costs with stops in place- TDIV is a similar mindset- I thought the value of dividend investing- combined with the Tech sector- would perhaps offer a more stable investment (dividend focus) across a moving sector- I was nailed on TDIV- bought it on the "breakout at the very recent market top @ $28.00 and took a hefty loss on it's decline- I reentered at $25.59 , and want to try to allow this the upside it needs. I'm up approx 5% in the trade, which looks to have plenty of potential upside to get back to the prior highs. While it is psychologically more self-serving to focus on one's winning trades, one's losing trades are the very best lessons and motivators to change.
For quite a while i took a hiatus- I was not involved in the markets- but I had some positions- I was thinking - keep the hands off- allow the positions to work out longer term- I think I have regained my footing to pay more attention, and to be willing to not allow the losses of not protecting a position from a significant decline in trend- or reducing the position size immediately. In the long run, I hope to achieve a more effective focus- personal/work life allowing- and keep a narrower focus- and try to manage trades- Eventually, the goal is to develop some CORE positions, and still trade around those Core holdings. (Landry style) Weisman) - the belief being largely held as accurate that having only a focus on quick-tactical swing trades eventually get whipsawed out and miss the larger upside moves because of a faILURE TO REENTER.
aS I TAKE REENTRY TRADES- I'm in a fewer # of positions, and perhaps gaining a better 'feel' for the prospects- As with any trade- we never know where the trade will go- but most will follow along with the swing of the broader market- Had the markets failed to continue the rally here up to today, i would have none-the-less seen my account value matching the prior lows- Allowing Fear or one's bias is normal- I'm trying to mitigate that by the use of a faster chart- but with an eye to taking the reentry if stopped out and proven wrong-
Hope to get back to posting some charts when time allows- This week could be the Tell for the market following the Fed speak. I'm overall bullish

[sd]

Had a few vacation days- trying to finish the exterior siding renovation before the cold spell this weekend.
Market is indeed amazingly bullish- Shrugged off the FED's announcement of stopping QE- Markets absorb that- along with some good earnings, lower unemployment etc as reason enough to not sell-off.
Yesterday Japan joins the party- This am the markets are set for a big upside open.
Cure is still climbing higher-(wish I had put more into it now- but isn't that the mindset that gets one into trouble- Lose perspective and caution- You start thinking - "This might keep on for months"
My reentries into PJP, PBE,TDIV all are seeing gains and stops can be moved up to the entry - Wider stops combined with a lack of volatility swings have been the right course here recently-
And I bought a 10 share position in AAPL- AAPL recently broke out of the consolidation range- I have a friend that sold it off when it made the breakout- That is counter to letting your winners Run- So, I think I intentionally bought it here at it's high just to make a statement & to see if that will work out with a longer term view- I'll set a stop initially below the prior consolidation range- I actually was toying around with a 1 minute RENKO chart- and I didn't follow my own guidelines for entry as I should have- As price was declining, I set a buy-stop for a 2 renko b ar values reversing higher- But I didn't give the stop order enough room- (I had intended to Buy regardless) but it was 'fun; to to try out the renko in real time.
And I think fundamentally AAPL could be worth a longer term hold- or at least I hope so- I'll give this some wide room- expecting the prior consolidation to provide major support-
With the "big" open today, will this be a top? Account value has made a recent high this am- Now- key will be to not give it all back this time. Don't mistake a Bull Market for a "got a trading system now".
Some big funds have increased their allocation across the global markets according to CNBC-
I also took positions this past week+ in some more aggressive funds with emerging market exposures, and swung money out of the bond funds. I
Don't know why I am still holding CURE- stop was not activated but the chart shows a 1 minute "flash": crash of price dropping from 115 to 102 at 1:30 pm- Can't protect from that kind of manipulation with what you think is a reasonably wide stop-
Time for the house stuff-

[sd]

GOOD 1 hour long video on developing the business trading plan

www.youtube.com/watch?v=_rCa5Gvs2lI

[sd]

Both PBE and pjp hit my raised stops today- I also raised stops in another accounts that has DTN as the single focus- I'd have to check the actual #'s- I have a selective memory when it suits me- and that's often ----but I've made money in DTN, exited on price weakness, got back in early on this recent decline, got a nice move up- and despite the recent gap higher- I raised the stops today to $74.60 or so in the other accts holding DTN. I think it pays a quarterly dividend- but my goal was to see if I could simply swing trade it to my advantage- Which means a pullback from here- with price extended would allow me to again repurchase additional shares for less than I sold. It may not be the best of dividend picks- but I liked the sound of the strategy and quarterly rebalancing if necessary. I've been feeling pretty much on top of my game here lately- partly because I jumped back in just as folks were getting nervous- It won't last long - I'll get over confident, swing too wide, and get a lesson- unless I may have learned a thing or two about ignoring my bias as to what the market should do and just trade the d**n chart.
The issue with shorter term swing trades is exiting on a pullback may be the exact bottom- looked terrible on a faster time frame- but was a minor pause on a daily chart- then the trade moves forward substantially and you're late or waiting for 3 days for cash to clear and don't want to reenter- We've all been there, done that- Cure had moved over 30% higher from my 90.88 entry- up to 122 think- and in my desire to allow it to run more- (greed) I set my stops with a volatility indicator and under a minor swing in the trend. I think I'm at 116.50- still a nice gain- But as i did some work on looking at the higher time frame weekly charts of CURE over the preceding 3 years- Each time price pulls away from the fast ema,
the reaction pulls price back on a rubber band, and the tendency is for the fast ema to get violated by price penetrating lower and going back towards the 30 ema- A great reentry point some 4 or 5 times in the past few years-
I'm doing this more for analysis purposes- I don't know that i will ever be able to trade Cure effectively- but it is useful as an exaggerated study of price reactions. One of the good things I have done was that I set a much higher limit sell order for the shares- Keeping the order about 10% above- I had to raise that limit sell from 120 up to 130- hoping for that volatility spike on a blow-off open. The present move higher has price at one of the extreme wide levels based on the ema's/ trend line- I also have all 3 psar sells on the fast Renko I also watch- which doesn't mean sell-necessarily - just consider raising the stops tighter.
I'd like to learn to backtest automatically instead of manually- I downloaded the free trading platform Ninja Trader- and have to watch the You Tube videos to begin to comprehend where to start.
The concept of backtesting is simple- If you think you have an approach that is systematic viable- backtest across multiple time frames and history - and different stocks or ETF's etc- It would be a good starting point- Unfortunately, human beings likely skew a winning backtested approach because of their psychology in being able to enter trades- winning or losing- methodically. The general concept involves using RENKO close bars, some trending conditions, and a enter-don't enter- condition with several different fitted PSAR values. Because Renko close charts care more about the actual final price movements- as long as a trend is still in effect, it is not showing alot of the actual volatility- However, I have come to think that Renko charts should be viewed in faster time frames to get more of the nuances of price interaction than on the time frame one uses with candlesticks- With candlesticks i use a 2 hr chart - but I think a 15 or 30 minute renko reduces Risk , gets the earlier entry exit- Requires some ema's and PSAR values- May vary with different trading instruments - One size may not fit all.
Final note- The only downside to protecting a profit and locking in a gain is if you don't have a plan to reenter if the trade reverses and the trend continues-Not having "freed cash" available is the price of having a pauper's trading account- or tying up everything when the market says "go For it".
I may be willing to try a small % of Riskier trades ona faster time frame- while i am much more comfortable with something like DTN or TDIV as easier to determine the swings- Gains are smaller- but so is the Risk.

[sd]

11.5.14 am note- After reviewing the wider charts, I dropped the $74.60 stop- DTN (low was $74.63 and I was too tight to it-) Drop dead stop is now $74.40
Everything looks tepid today and yesterday- CURE, TDIV are sideways as well. Haven't "broken down" yet- as putting in a lower swing down . Cure tested the 122 prior high, but pulls back- dbl top.
From a daily chart- price has not made a close below the 10 ema- now at 118.76- From a 2 hour chart- price is sideways, multiple emas are horizontal- consolidation range- Temptation is strong to raise the stops to 116 just below price-
but I'm leaving a bit of room 114.00 as price has not gotten too volatile and is staying up vs testing the low of the range. I have to remind myself to not just take a profit- but to perhaps find that position that manages to move on higher-
If it should breakout higher- instead of lower- this 116 level at the bottom of the range may prove to be a good higher support .