SD'S -'GET 'ER DONE' IN 2012

[sd]

Other positions I am holding are AIG, EWS , and RSX.
Aig is an obvious play on the financials gaining some strength-
I did not realize the Fed was going to unload it's remainder of shares the day after I entered.
EWS and RSX represent areas showing some upside momentum and not adversely affected by the talks in the US of the fiscal cliff.

[sd]

Boehner - emergency meeting tonight at the White House-
I would bet this will rally the markets- if the news becomes that "progress" has indeed been made- There's 14 hours between now and the market open.

Trying to time and play market volatility that responds to a news story is the territory for the nimble day trader that sits at his screen during market hours.

I believe there will be a gap open in TNA tomorrow- The direction will be determined by the results of the market's interpretation of the News. If the White House & Boehner reached an accord, it will be higher. If not, the downtrend continues through support- a break of the lower support level would leave a substantial move lower a likely objective.

As the charts will show, TNA paused at the close at support- attempting a reversal, but it was a high volume inside bar close- Not bullish- That was before the Boehner meeting news-

[sd]

While my primary positions are EWS, RSX (said to short on fast money) , and a falling financial- AIG-
I had to check on the TNA, TZA trade this pm, shortly before the market close.
There was not a gap open as I had anticipated- prompted by a new "NEWS" of the fiscal cliff.
So, TNA saw a definite pullback- which should have spawned an early Buy of TZA- that hit support lower and then stalled and rallied higher.
A second fade off the bounce also hit the support base and the selling paused there- and then tried to move higher the last hours into the close-
For academic purposes, I figured I'd view TNA, TZA today, and perhaps take a small position-
I set up Buys on both positions, but with the second bounce off support, I felt it favored the long side- TNA- I entered 5 minutes before the close- As that order was filled and price climbed higher, I added to the position 1 minute before the close-
Just $.04 apart in price, but then the ticker rose sharply at the very end-A big momentum came in the very last minute-
I assume these were Orders on the Close.- and they moved the price higher versus sell on the close.
The outcome will be decided next week- Boehner has left Washington on vacation.

[sd]

tHE ABSOLUTE INSANITY THAT OCCURRED TODAY IN cONN.
It is virtually inconceivable that such a random thing could occur-
As my wife and I watch the news reports tonight , this horrific event overshadows all other events of the day-
One cannot protect themselves, their children, from random actions of mentally ill individuals bent on hurting others.
What an absolute senseless nightmare for those so tragically affected
Life is indeed very fragile and special.

[sd]

The TNA trade is heading up nicely-as is AIG--
I have the audacity to have put in a limit sell on tna @ $66-
With a stop-loss in place-raised to $58.00- just under my entry.
I'll be surprised and pleased if it manages to put in 2 or more up days-Of course, we'll have to see what the market thinks about the fiscal cliff at the end of the day.
I will likely not try very many 3x plays in the future-We will see if I can nip a profit- at least get 3 days in the up direction?

[sd]

Hmmm,
I'm thinking something malicious is affecting my access-
I am unable to use Internet Explorer whatsoever-
I had to use Google Chrome to get into my brokerage account this am- I'm having troubles getting back there tonight regardless of the browser-
I don't quite understand this- and it is also affecting my jobsite computer access- some 80 miles from here- perhaps it is a system problem?
I am unable to access IB tonight-= regardless of which browser I try- I am somewhat relieved because I was able to log on earlier with Google Chrome as IE was unresponsive- and I was able to update my stops.
Very disconcerting to not be able to get access though-

[sd]

Some price weakness today as the market closed back a bit lower-
Raising stops on all positions- although I'd like to stay long- and I think we still go higher- but I'd rather lock in some gains, and maybe try to reenter some positions if we do pull back-TNA is my best position, and I went negative yesterday on EWS- Up some on AIG, RSX
SD

[sd]

I was stopped out going into the open today on 3 positions-
locked in some gains with the raised stops-
The price action turned up later in the day, and I took a reentry into TNA as it pushed up to the prior high, as well as going overweight in FAS as it moved higher.

[sd]

With the exception of a "high income trust" fund-my IRA allocations have seen the bond funds start to decline - and the growth funds are rebounding-
A world bond fund is doing well, as well as growth funds focused on foreign mkts.
I will be shifting some allocations -and increasing some Risk with the exposure outside of the us- I can't bring myself to think Europe will continue to see upside growth-although a fund focused on Europe is indeed up smartly. - It would seem that the less Risky growth plays would be outside of Europe though.
It would seem that the US has a lot of unknowns for it's business' and that the world economy may continue to move higher- with or without the US outperforming. Only time will tell.
I'm trying to view the regular charts along with Renko charts - and this transition period may give me some better feel for an actual application method-Right now, the Renko weekly with a 3 ma and a 8 ma cross is a good early indicator- I need to do a lot of work on this,before I embrace it as a method I can follow- but it's a starting reference-

[sd]

Futures are way down- Boehner fails to get a consensus with Republicans- is the pm news-
Do I dare sit through this? The markets will obviously open much lower in the am- My gains will evaporate- but is it just a dramatic over reaction?
I'll decide tomorrow whether to take the loss at the open or to sit through it and see if calm does not end the day.

[sd]

I sold TNA 6 minutes into the open-
FAS gapped open lower, slid down, and then tried to me higher-
The damage was done to me on the gap down open- and Boehner will be speaking as I write this-
Instead of selling to reduce my loss at the higher level here, I'm going to set a 118 stop-loss - near the open low- and we'll see if the banks get some support-
If one looks on a daily chart, that is arelatively minor pullback in what was a good momentum move higher away from the "normal" trend.
CHART AFTER THE OPEN

[sd]

This market closed lower, but it shows an underlying strength in the way it reacted today-
If you look at both TNA and TZA- this was the opportunity for TZA to make that big turn up and in actuality, it gapped up on the open, and that was it's peak- it struggled throughout the day, and closed significantly down at the day's low- Selling TNA made sense at the time- as a reduction of my exposure- but I'm thinking that holding onto FAS will prove to be the right thing to have done-based on the way the markets closed and price behaved.
Of course, this is the same rationale that investors use when they have a trade go against them- They find points of analysis that justifies holding a position when they are at a loss-SD

[sd]

Getting Caught on a gap down lower is not pleasant-
I would normally have a hard & fast stop-loss in place- but my present work schedule allows me some time to monitor the markets
periodically during the day.
In hearing the evening news about Boehner failing to bring party members together on a fiscal cliff proposal, and the consensus that the market would sell-off- I chose to see how it developed-
The pullback in price simply has given up the gains made in recent days-My entry was on a momentum move -higher close where price was already near a recent high- Had the "news" been favorable, the result would have been a Gap higher, and the trade would have been in the green.
As it was, price gapped down, made a low, and then rallied higher- I'm using the 1st swing back low- dbl bottom $18.75 as my line in the sand, and a hard stop of $18.70 . Market is muted on this short 1/2 day .

tHE HOURLY CHART-RESIZED

THE 2 MIN CHART 11 AM GIVING SOME OPTIMISM-

[sd]

Geitner now says the country is in jeapordy of "default' - re debt limit. Just icing on the cake so to speak for the "pressure" building.
This is the week - the only question is will the double whammy of the debt ceiling having been reached months ahead of the projected date, and the 'fiscal cliff'' actually have any chance to be properly addressed? I think not.
I have chosen to roll up the sand box, and have gone out of bonds into a money market fund in the retirement accounts. Holding a minimal market exposure.
Still holding the FAS position in the trading account........

[sd]

FAS sold at the open . The Timothy Geithner announcement made a believer out of me- the RISK outweighs the potential benefit.