SD's Short-term -seat-of-the-pants- swing trading

[sd]

trade follow-up
MDRX gapped above my limit buy - and is at $19.00.
I missed it , but am considering a follow up buy -limit $19.10.
AMP - Ameriprise Financial- looks like it's prepared to move higher - I'm looking at a 60 minute chart, and it suggests a $55.85 buy-stop.
Also supported by the daily- Nice close stop-loss .
This financial has had market momentum for months.-Unlike the C, GS, BAC, WFC,MS......
What I like about this trade is the low risk should it breakdown and stop out. $54.75 should be an absolute stop.
SD

[dg]

sd:

I made a graph of drop versus time for you. Print it out and carry it with you. Understand that drop is in inches and you divide line of sight range by projectile velocity to get time (i.e. 30 yards/ 100 yards/sec = 0.3 seconds -- the 30% V condition).



Should you have difficulty with the image in this window, you can pull the image directly using this link:
i497.photobucket.com/albums/rr340/dgsignals/dropvstime.jpg

[sd]

Thanks DG!
I think I understand this- and I've got it right IF the graph line is a constant for all velocities. If not, I'm wrong-

Thanks for expanding this- Hope i got it right....

[blygh]

Dumb me - I looked at your chart for five minutes thinking it was some sort of esoteric techinal market tool before I realized it was about archery. Market wise I am ficusing on the Chemical sector god steady growth - I may bail ut f automotives - Fidelity Select Automotive FSAVX - up 42 % this year - that is a bit much DORM tanked since I rode it but AZO, LEA JCI DDAIF POAHY (sold Friday) TWIN and BWA still show progress. Next sector - idustrial equipment - check out the charts on CAT, CNH, DE, CMI

Blygh

[sd]

I'll check em out Blygh-
Which stocks in the chemical industry are you looking at?
DD looks strong , and has been trending nicely- and volume is increasing sharply recently-
If the emerging markets continue to emerge, industrials should do well.
I wonder how much of this rally is just the 'window dressing'
that's referred to- as funds that have lagged are buying to try to catch performance at the end of the year?


I'm on vacation this week, so I get to do some archery, hunting, trading, and spend some time trying to review sectors and potential trades.
I also have to allocate my retirement monies before the end of the year with the new broker our company switched to.
Since I went to mostly cash in Oct 2007, I didn't get trashed, but also didn't get back in in time to benefit from the move back up. Fortunately, I am able to move into the new funds commission free. I'll get into that later this week.....

Presently I'm holding a small C position, and WFC in the financials- Again, it was based on the idea that the financials were oversold and starting to move- "No rally continues without the Financials etc" i'M NOT SO SURE- Just the other day I heard the name AMP -Ameriprise financial-and was surprised to see how this has been uptrending since Augest.
Also 2 brokerage names- Jef and LAZ- Lazard has been doing well, trending nicely lately
I was filled yesterday on MDRX @19.09 after missing the gap higher the prior day.
I was not filled on the other trade- as it moved down and didn't hit my buy-stop.
Good Trading to You-
SD

[dg]

sd:

Yes, you are using it correctly. range/velocity = time to target. Drop = .5 x g x t^2 (x 12 to get it in inches). Now you can see the beauty of my 10/20/30 rule. No matter what your projectile velocity, at range = 10% v, drop is 2 inches, at range = 20% v, drop is 8 inches and at range = 30% v, drop is 18 inches (actually: 1.93 inches, 7.72 inches and 17.37 inches).

So, even though you could shoot an arrow at 235 fps and 45 degree launch for a maximum range of 1716 feet (572 yards), practical shooting is really limited to about 20% v due to gravity drop. Go for more and you are playing Robin Hood.

A good way to convince yourself of this is to shoot your bow sideways from the surface of a picnic table at a vertical target and measure drop versus range. BTW, you can use this info backwards via the graph to deduce arrow (or bullet) velocity. IE. suppose you measure a drop of 12 inches at a range of 50 feet. Time corresponding to 12 inch drop per the graph is 0.25 sec, thus v = 50/0.25 = 200 fps.

[sd]

Thanks Again DG-You have a remarkable understanding of Mathematics- and practical as well!
I also like your suggestion of working backwards in calculating velocity by measuring drop from the level shot off a picnic table! No chronograph needed!
Outstanding!
You should really consider writing an article - for example- American Hunter magazine. Or to an Archery magazine- I'm relatively new to the sport, but I haven't met a single Archer that "knows" how to calculate drop other than gradually adjusting your sight pins until you get it right. The true amount of drop increase over distance would surprise virtually all.
And who would ever think of your practical back yard method to calculate FPS? I think Archers would benefit most from the information.
Have you considered a patent on a combination sight/rangefinder that would automatically give the proper sight once the fps was input?
This would revolutionize targeting. What would it take to use the data from the range finder and knowing the fps of the arrow, display a target pin for that distance? That would seem to be an item that would be in great demand! There may be such an item out there?
Archers today use both range finders and compensate with sight pins. They must manually make an adjustment (estimate) -if the target is at 37 yards, they'll shoot the 40 yard pin slightly low. But as your math has pointed out, the slightly low on a 40 yard pin & 37 yard distance, is not the same as a 30 yard pin & a 27 yard distance.
Why not construct a sight that has a compensator built in that with 2 inputs- fps and range - would put a crosshair exactly on target? It may already exist-

Actually, while I think there would be a great demand for such a product, in terms of archery 'success', I believe I will consider myself as graduating to a higher class once I abandon my technologically advanced compound bow with fiber optic sights and led accessory light- and string that recurve bow with arrows that use feathers instead of plastic for fletching, and harvest my first deer.

I will be able to take a greater understanding of the physics of arrow flight with me , thanks to your instruction.
Regards, SD

[dg]

sd:

Military snipers already have the computer and settable scope to account for bullet, gun, range, drag, temperature effects on performance and wind. Of course such equipment is proabably not available to the public. And who else really needs it? Just ambush inside 20% V and you will take home the bacon, er ... venison. And I personally prefer to look down the arrow and adjust my aim point for range rather than mess with the fricking peep sight. JMHO

Something you might consider (knowing your arrow speed) ...
Draw three cross hair aim points on a vertical archery target. At the desired hit point, draw the first one and make a circle (bulls eye) around it. Draw a second one two inches above the first and the third eight inches above the first. Then go back to the 10% V distance, look at the bulls eye and shoot aiming your arrow at the second cross. Later, go back to the 20% V distance, look at the bulls eye and shoot aiming your arrow at the top cross. This should help you get a feel for distance and drop for each of your weapons. (Forget the 18 inch drop 30% V point unless you want to play robin hood in front of friends.)

As to publishing something for other hunters ... do we really want the competition to know all our little secrets? SHHHHHHH!

[sd]

MDRX Trade:

[sd]

TBL- A shoe mfg.
As I DVR'd the past couple of days, the interview with the CEO was on Cramer. Cramer says it has lagged the industry group.
As I look at the chart, it has hit resistance 3x , with increasing volume . It Looks poised to push higher .

[sd]

also looking at ASF- No time to post a chart- My daughter had greater success seeing Deer through a Chevy viewfinder tonight, than I have in the woods-SD

[sd]

Should have gone Hunting this am! The market opened up and then petered off .
I had decided I'd put some cash to work, and added a few trades thinking there is a sector theme to support the individual trades.

I added WFT and Hal in the oil services sector .Wft had moved out of a pullback 2 days prior, and Hal was still in consolidation.
This is based on expectation of higher oil prices in the months ahead.

I bot AEM as an oversold play on a gold miner.

I bot NTAP today on a market upgrade and appropriate price movement higher.
I was filled on the TBL trade $26.26 (cost 26.28) at the open and then it looked like it had some momentum the first 30 minutes or so.,and then fizzled. with no upside from my entry.

My Amzn position gained $5+ While I'm still under in WFC and C.

And I bot and stopped out hard on VRX -should have used the 60 minute and $29.50 as a stop, but rode it down to $29.

All told, todays gains and losses were a net wash....
SD

[sd]

[dg]

I keep getting emails from various sources yelling SELL SELL SELL! Yet the market keeps going up up up. Really strange!

[sd]

I would agree with the emails proclaiming SELL! However, it's difficult to proclaim when this is market timing appropriate.
There seems to be a zest for investing, and a decline in volatility which = complacency. = a good time to sell.
I'm fully long these days in my trading account, but playing this with tighter stops on weakness.

If you've been riding this wave up, you have to think that the Christmas rally has a lot to do with Funds buying at the end chasing performance and wanting to achieve parity with the benchmark. At least that is the rationale market pundits proclaim as the reason for the market to "melt up" ,. The market has been able to totally separate itself from the issue of the Euro, and the relationship to the US economy. There still remains outstanding mortgage debt and foreclosure issues-, and the slow employment growth - All substantial foundational issues which should mute our exuberance.
However, I am not smart enough or have enough market savvy to understand the WHY the market is at such and such a level rationally, inspite of the seemingly large overhanging economic concerns.. Therefore, I acknowledge I can only go with the flow and try to discern when that trend / flow appears to change. charts come in handy for this ....
Bond funds are rolling over the past 2 months, and there are concerns with many US cities and perhaps States (Cal) that would normally derail a cognizant investing public. But, enjoy the flavor while the Kool Aid is being passed around- The US may actually be able to manipulate it's money flows to continue to allow expansion to eventually start without a total market breakdown. Don't look behind the curtain Dorothy!
On the one hand, we are looking at a sustained period of no job growth, declining housing values, and here in NC we actually have increased unemployment while the market focuses on an increase in consumer spending. As long as the Fed continues to pump money into the market, we should not take the Higher road. As I listen to the arguments between the bulls/bears- even the bulls acknowledge that the "issues" are there, but put off into an indefinite future. Someday, there will be an accounting, but it may not be in the next 1,2, or 5 years.....Logically, we know we have overdrawn our checking account, but keep drafting credit cards to pay the bills- someday, it will come back to roost. Until then....

The course of action , is to disregard personal concerns, and go with the flow. Michael Pinto makes compelling arguments for the bearish view on Kudlow. on CnBC.btw!

Today the president proclaimed the Economy is now past the Crisis point!!!- Only if the man behind the curtain can continue successfully assuring the audience of this reality.
Statistically, I expect this period of outperformance is an anomaly and lack of investor concern (complacency) suggests a top is indeed near.
The entire issue I have with this is wrapped solely around my own mindset- Which caused me to doubt the initial rally and to miss the major upside market move - A Once in a decade opportunity squandered by the scrooge eyewear.
Investing and profiting is about Risk and Reward.

While a bearish view on where we may be economically may be correct, it may not be the profitable view . A doubting Thomas that yet invested, is much better off than the Doubting Thomas that stood aside feeling morally and intellectually correct!

Go with the flow, and be suspicious of signs of weakness -

Good Luck- SD