SD's Short-term -seat-of-the-pants- swing trading

[sd]

Have been very busy- had no time to speak of, ,but with the market rallying, I wanted to go long and so I looked at the horse race picks and put in some buy-stop/limit orders. Also put in a limit for NFLX @ 120 which gapped up $6 above my price. I have kept the limit order active, and today NFLX hit a low of $120.02 .

I didn't go with CPEX because of the extremely light volume- some hourly periods with no shares being traded.
MTG gapped higher, I was filled with GNK, RADS, and still hold those. I also Bot AKAM, BLK up slightly
SD

[sd]

Follow up to the EUO trade- Just when it seemed the Euro could crash and burn.... Price gave an indication of weakness on Tuesday 5-08 with an hour bar closing below the fast ema.
I respected that signal, raised my stop and was taken out the next day $25.84 at the open.
While the EUO seemed to try to bounce higher that day, it is traded as much on political/economic sentiment, that I decided i wouldn't try to jump back into it until Price rally gave a solid indication.
That turns out to be a good choice in this particular period of time . Europe is giving signals it's got confidence......

In a questionable market, the hourly chart is helpful in giving early indications- . Can the last few bars and volumes of the day be a good indication of where price will head the next day? I often think so, but the next day's action is likely dictated by the larger market direction as much as anything else. If the market is bullish, and price action confirms, go with the flow- If the price action closes weakly, while the market is up- that's a divergence.
To me, volume is a plus if it supports the trade, but it often happens after the move has already started-
I'll wait on the EUO trade until I see some 'sign' that a reversal back up is underway....SD

[sd]

Was filled today NVDA $12.10 @ $9.34.
Nvda has been downtrending for 2 months on the daily.
3 weeks ago , NVDA attempted to make an upturn, and failed-
Looks very similar on the daily chart to today's attempted move higher as well.
On the daily chart, Price has moved above the declining fast ema,, causing the fast ema to upturn- From the $10.87 low, price has reversed to the upside the prior 5 days , . I looked at both the daily and the hourly, and decided to place the trade.

Recognizing this trade's primary trend is down, and that price has been unable to overcome the 20 ema , I'll be using the hourly chart to identify signs of weakness.
On the daily chart, my order was placed above the recent high with a buy-stop @ $12 & limit $12.10, although I viewed that on the hourly. Now that my order has filled , and looks potentially like it is wanting to go in my direction- I'll set a stop just below the prior sell-off day low to begin with. I'll use the swing low of $11.70 - the sell bar low - to set my initial stop.
While i liked the closing hourly bar, the volume looked a lot higher than expected-

[sd]

Follow up- NVDA trade is still active- I was not impressed by the price action today, and will likely consider splitting the stops - using the slow Sar for 1, and the intraday break of the fast ema for the other... Note entry & cost of trade = $12.11
A stop at the $11.90 Sar/ema risks $.21 ( 1.7%)
A stop at the $11.70 level = $.41 = 3.4% = 2x greater loss.
SD

[sd]

Horse Race Trades-
Not having much time last week to look at charts etc, I looked at the horses entered in the race- Chart-wise, on the Hourly chart, they all looked similar - as the market had started to rally earlier in the week.
I elected to place buy-stops with limits on GNK, MTG, RADS, and passed on CPEX because of the lack of hourly volume.
MTG gapped higher above my limit, was filled on GNK, and Rads.
Rads sold today- Friday- when it hit the $1 above my entry buy-stop. That was not my actual intended target sell point- but the way price closed, I may have been lucky.
On every trade, I attach bracket orders- which are a limit sell, and a stop-loss. The default auto setting for these is $1 above and below the stop-price. I usually adjust both of these amounts - setting the limit sell higher and the stop level specific to the trade.....Did not adjust the limit sell on this one, and it hit today. SD-
RADS Chart

[sd]

Trading Update :
I have had my Butt kicked and my account has sufferred accordingly-
Account value is $10,475 with the only remaining position - TSO a recent add is still profitable.
I will have to review and post this last month's trades at some future time..... Not making excuses, been very busy and did not apply proper diligence, or have a focus on the market direction. Or indirection as it may be....... The see-saw market has chopped me up- Fortunately, my losses were controlled by stops in place.
I should have eased back on positions as we got some volatility going, and paid more attention to what was occurring -
I should have also adjusted stops each evening accordingly. .....
Fortunately, I don't have to rely on my trading account for income.
I'll catch up in the weeks ahead- SD

[sd]

This is 8-20, and I haven't succeeded in gaining $$$ in my few trades this summer. Down a little further $10,315, as winning trades roll over and stop out, and losing trades fall like a rock.

My only remaining trade is GLD, looks toppish I think, and it is followed with a $1 or so stop- I don't have the time or desire to monitor trades intraday or even daily it seems- Thus I'm backed out for the most part.

My focus these past weeks /months has been relaxing in the pm and weekends developing my archery skills and also preparing for the upcoming NC Sept 12 hunting season.

It's great to have a side interest, take the edge off the market, the job , and allows one to put his focus elsewheres.
For me, Archery fits the bill. It's about acquiring and developing skills.
This year , I've continued to work with my compound bow, as well as trying to learn to shoot "instinctively" with a recurve bow- No sight, fingers vs a mechanical release.
It has been a great process of gradual development - If you are not focused, that arrow let's you know right away.
There is an analogy there appropriate with trading this market.
We had some discussion here last year, and DG provided some useful information/calculations on arrow drop and the mechanics - Not sure where that was posted.
One can spend a lot of money getting the latest and greatest equipment/bows/sights etc. That keeps the industry going- I take the Craigslist.org approach, and tried to step into this with used equipment. And that works- Doesn't break the bank, and if I give it up tomorrow, I don't sweat it because I didn't drop $1,000 on the greatest and fastest bow out this year.

This is now my second season of Archery and bow hunting-

There is something to be said for better equipment.
I took my compound bow down to a local bow shop- They attached a chronograph, and found it was shooting at 232 feet/second. Relatively slow compared to recent year's models.

The shop owner also explained that the IBO speeds listed for new models are based on 18" arrows, and when they test fire a 340 fps rated bow, it usually clocks much lower- 310 fps with a 28" arrow.

For target archery, speed is not as much a factor as it is for hunting. With each arrow release, there is some noise, and the reaction of the prey due to the sound of the release- Longer shots with a slower bow potentially mean the prey may react and a poor shot may result if the prey moves in reaction to the noise.

The goal is to take high probability shots- 30 yards or less- with a compound bow, and likely closer to 20 yards with the recurve. .

The compound bow has all the advantages technology can offer- Reduction of draw pressure, optical sights, increased penetrating power.
The recurve bow relies on the shooters instinctive aim, the further the arrow is drawn, the more force exerted on the archer as the draw pressure increases. The recurve is similar to what humankind used for thousands of years until the advent of the compound bow.
I'm shooting a 48# browning recurve and a 60# bear compound bow. I can hold the draw on the recurve for 10-15 seconds, and I can hold the draw on the compound for 2-3 minutes.
I had been using an Octane rest with brushes for my arrow rest- I changed that out to a drop-a-way rest- and that had a profound improvement on my shooting,.
Last week I also experimented with the sights for the compound bow- They are fiber-optic and have an accessory light- They normally mount to the riser of the bow and extend out about 4"
I took an aluminum "no-Parking" sign, and with a mini-grinder cut a strip of aluminum which I tapped to match the 10-24 threads of the bow's sight mounts, and extended the sights out an additional 4".
I then mounted the sights a further 4" out from the riser.

I was amazed at the improvement in my shooting! I think it's attributable to both the drop-a=way rest and the extended sights. I was able to get consistant groups at 40 yards-
This weekend I'm experimenting with making a bracket that extends the sights 6". The fiber optic sights are .029 and I believe using .019 sights would be the best combination. For the sight extension bracket I'm using some aluminum "no-parking" signs- accumulated in past years.

While I have a great deal of confidence with the compound bow, out to 30 and even 40 yards, The Recurve bow is a work in progress.
Shots with a recurve bow have less penetrating power than a compound, and need to be placed with greater accuracy.

I've actually installed a practice tree stand in my driveway, about 15' up in a pine tree. I've got an extension ladder attached to the pine , with a safety harness attachment in the stand.
The deer target is set up on a moveable stand in the front yard from the driveway and tree stand. From 10 yards to 40....

Only Jeff Foxworthy could truly appreciate this !


Becoming addicted to this sport hasn't taken long-
If and when I can upload videos from the trail camera, I'll try to do so.
SD

[sd]

Timing is everything 'they' say.
Nice market wide rally about the time I decided to go into the woods and climb up in trees with bow and arrow in hand.
Hunting season is still on, but daylights savings time nipped my opportunity to scramble into the woods following the work day.
Unfortunately, I didn't bag the 10 pointer Blygh throws rocks at- Best I saw was an 8 point and was not able to take a clear shot at. Season isn't over here, so there's always the future weekends.....
Did harvest 3 deer to date- all younger bucks. Venison in the freezer, and a number of added experiences to reflect on.

Which brings me back to my new focus- resuming trading .
I needed a change of pace, and a refreshed perspective-

On news of the troubles in Europe, a few weeks ago, My first trade was to short the Euro, and that worked out well, exiting on signs of weakness and locking in a gain. It was easy to find myself all-in with a number of diverse stocks.
I added Cree at $57.85, as it pushed out of a short uptrend consolidation. with a buy-stop entry. and it is now $70.45, with a tight trailing stop. I managed to not squeeze my stop so close to get whipsawed out and still hold the position.
Range resources- a commodity play RRC was my second best play, and I adopted my "close the stop on weakness" and that indeed proved to be the right approach- as RRC rolled over hard and fast and fell below where I entered and i netted a decent % gain.
Note, I also made a dozen or so other trades, and closed out on all with raised stops- some for losses, and some for small gains.

Until last week, my sense of the market was things were good, and that we could 'expect' hedge funds that were lagging their market peers would push the market higher by buying to cover their lack of performance- and this would propel the market higher . I don't necessarily believe this to be the case-

How do you ever learn to guage the Market accurately?
On the one hand I believe it would take a full time focus to gain the insight and understanding of why the market may move in one direction or the other. And even then, there's no guarantee that one's perspective will reflect the market's at that point and time.

I used to believe that TA- technical analysis- unto itself was all that was necessary to succeed in trading. I now think it's more important - Blygh's approach, Now I believe that it is more important to find a sector in favor -or coming in favor, and jumping on a good performer in that sector-
Now i think we're in sector rotation- and a toppish market.
Time to be more defensive and protect profits with tighter stops.
The financials are starting to move, and I'll be buying WFC tomorrow.
I will also continue to raise stops on Cree.
Tempted to go back to the EUO - small risk and small gain.

As I assess my information sources- I am reliant on CNBC evenings to get a perspective of what's happening in the market.
Fast Money, Cramer, and Kudlow- I have absolutely no other time for other resources...

I will use TA to assess the information i receive from these shows.
SD



I will use TA to determine

[sd]

As I go into this week, I own some C, WFC as financials are moving.
I also own Cree, AMZN, and I threw a few dollars at a spec China play- GAGA which appeared to try to rally Friday.
Unfortunately, the impulse to take a China lottery ride coincided with the announcement that China is likely to raise rates this week.
At this point I recognize there has been a substantial market move in the past months, and perhaps not as much going forward. I hope to attune my trading to coincide with the sector rotation, using TA to guide entry and potential exits. There are many market variables that can affect the direction of the market for a few days- Presently , the spectre of the Bush tax cuts not being continued loom for tomorrow. And China raising rates- and the next Euro-centric country to require a bail out-.....
One strength I had in the past in volatile markets was a tight stop limiting losses.
Conversely, One major weakness I had in the past volatile markets was a tight stop that whipsawed me out of winning trades, limiting losses but also gains.
At the present time, I am staying with the benefit of limiting losses and protecting my recent gains.
SD


Sd

[sd]

GAGA stopped out for a loss today, and Cree stopped out as well.
Cree had a 20% net gain.
1st Chart posted is a daily


Next chart is a 60 minute- What is beneficial from a 60 minute is that it tells you in greater detail how the stock price at different times intraday, Has to be considered in context of whether the larger market was influencing the action.

[dg]

sd:

Here's a little christmas gift for you:

Remember these 2 sets of numbers ...
set 1: 10, 20, 30%
set 2: 2, 8, 18 inches

Okay, here's how to use them. For the first pair of numbers, set range at V x 10%. If V is 235 fps, 10% of that in range is 23.5 feet or 7.8 yards. For this range, your gravity drop is 2 inches. At twice this range (V x 20%), gravity drop is 8 inches. At thrice this range (V x 30%), gravity drop is 18 inches.

Thus for the unsighted bow, you must aim above your target by the drop value. This rule gives you aim compensation and shows you effective range for whatever you are shooting. For example, suppose you were shooting 30-06 bear rounds at 2700 fps (900 yards/sec). The 10% range would be 90 yards with 2 inches of drop, the 20% range would be 180 yards with 8 inches drop and the 30% range would be 270 yards with 18 inches drop.

I call this my 10/20/30 rule for line of sight shooting. (I invented it, so I can call it whatever I like).

BTW, just to make things complicated. Add 2 inches for looking through a bore sighted scope on any gun; and remember that if you sight in your gun for a specific range, you now compensate the 10/20/30 rule for differences.

Example compensation:
Let's assume that you sighted in your gun for the 180 yard range for your 2700 fps bullet speed. This means that you have compensated for 2 inch of scope offset + 8 inches of drop. Now were you to look through your scope for a target at 90 yards, you would have 5 inches (2 + 8) x (90/180) already in force but only need 4 inches (2 + 2); thus you would need to aim 1 inch low of where you want to hit. And if you were at the other extreme, looking through your scope at a target located 270 yards away, you would have 15 inches (2 + 8) x (270/180) already in force while needing 20 inches (2 + 18); thus you would need to aim 5 inches high of where you want to hit.

As to bow shooting, I prefer to look along the arrow rather than use the aim sights; so for me the 10/20/30 rule gives me what I need (along with my laser range finder). But thus far, I just shoot at boxes stuffed with packed newspapers.

Hope this stuff helps.

[sd]

Thanks DG for providing that info in terms i can apply!
I can 'see' the increasing drop reflected in the increasing gap between pins on the compound bow from 20-30-40-50 yds. Didn't know it could be so quickly defined!
I've also taken up shooting a recurve bow- considerably more challenge, and understanding the drop with the formula you provided will definitely assist as I try to develop a level of skill based on shooting 'intuitively' - no mechanical sights or mechanical release- . Over the past year, I picked up a couple of used recurves off Craigslist- Have much to learn yet. One is a Hoyt and the other a Browning .
I have had a long learning curve in trying to achieve a level of consistancy with the recurve bow, gradually adjusting and modifying my stance ,release,and sighting- even took an hour's lesson with a professional archery trainer.
Your formula will help me as I try to 'learn' shooting at different ranges. I struggled for months and finally raised my anchor point up to high on my cheekbone, and sight down the arrow, and my results definitely improved. The outside of my thumb is now held taught against my cheekbone.
Also, I now use a 3 finger Tab- leather covered with hair, instead of 3 separate fingers on the string. I also have learned to check and modify my brace height - 7 1/4-7-1/2" by tightening or loosening my string.
I enjoy target shooting-the process of improvement. More fun with a fellow archer , mix it up a bit, change the distances, make a 'game' 3 of 5 arrows need to be within a certain target area before stepping back, how far back can you get ?

One math question-to the formula- When Hunting, I am elevated- usually a minimum of 20' up to my feet, with the arrow approx 5' above that. What effect -if any- does shooting at a target 20 horizontal yards out from that elevation?
To a layman like myself, at first it would seem logical to expect a larger drop from an archer shooting from the ground level to a target 20 yards out,; (Gravity pull ?)
The archer that was 24' higher (8 yds) shooting at the same target horizontal to a target 20 yards is actually shooting a longer distance (21.5 yds).
Is the force of gravity a constant , causing the higher archer shooting the longer downhill distance to have more drop?
Thanks in advance!

To spice things up:
If the target archery gets stale, find a tree and put some backstop material in place. Toss a string over an upper branch, tie it off to a 2-3" balloon filled with water, (or orange, or apple) cause it to swing like a pendulum, and walk back and see if you can shoot it in motion.
An early Merry Christmas-SD

[sd]

I'm presently holding 2 financials- C and WFC. small positions, and i put in a limit to buy more C @ $4.52.
Jef and Laz are 2 trading stocks, and Jef looks to be consolidating with a $26.40 level to enter on a move higher. I believe these are brokerage companies that I had stepped into several weeks ago and got stopped out on.
Listening to both Cramer and Fast Money tonight, While they both mention numerous stocks, -Cramer MDRX, I like the chart and price action today- and am going with an $18.75 buy-stop.
Fast- AMP is a financial that has been uptrending for months- How is this possible? From 38 to 55 in 5 months. Appears to be possibly rolling over here? Why has this financial done so well?
One "theme" I've heard is that the market cannot sustain a rally without the financials joining in. and they have lagged.
I want to watch AMP and see if it looks ready to resume it's uptrend-
SD

[dg]

sd:

Drop is a function of time only. In 1/10 of a second your arrow will travel 10% of V. It will drop approximately 2 inches vertically from your expected line of sight hit point -- regardless of your elevation differential with the target. So if you shot straight up, it would be located at a height of 10%V - 2 inches at 1/10 of a second. If you shot horizontally, it would be located 2 inches below the height of launch of the arrow at 1/10 second. And if you shot straight down, it would be 10%V + 2 inches below your launch point at 1/10 second.

BTW, what I refer to as range is line of sight distance to target. That is what you would measure with a range finder. So forget ground distance and just think line of sight distance.

[sd]

Thanks for the follow up DG!
I've read a number of articles on archery, watched a few shows, and Never has anyone actually explained it with the back up math .
Outstanding to have it explained in a manner an average guy like myself can apply. I doubt that many archery shops understand the principle!

A range finder would be a great asset! a miscalculation of 5 yards @ 30 yds distance ( I've done that) could be a complete miss! (Yes, I've done that also)
You might appreciate this as a fellow archer- If you ever use sights:
One thing I did earlier this year that improved my shooting with the compound bow & using sights: I made an aluminum bracket that extended my sight mounts out from the riser an additional 6" or so past the typical mount. Essentially I extended the sight point further from my peep sight (eye) and it improved my shooting almost immediately.
I still use that extension on my bow today, and estimate that it improved my groupings by a factor of seemingly being 10 yards closer, compared to the original sight mount.
I thought that this was the next best thing in archery since fletching tape,; but it was not a novel concept- Apparently there is already a commercial sight extension product out there -....But I've never seen it in the local shops.
But if you ever have the desire.......
Liberate an aluminum "no-Parking" sign , cut it crossways in 2-1/4" strips- x 10" length, Drill and tap some 10-24 threads spaced to fit the sights mounting screws; attach with an isolation strip of rubber roofing material ; mount with lock washers to the riser- For Hunting, cover with camo tape from Walmart.
Install and adjust the sights .
Enjoy the improved accuracy-
Regards, SD