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Post by sd on Sept 26, 2024 8:14:00 GMT -5
9.26.2024
Lotta green this am- China stocks higher on China's stimulus.
Nas up $341 premkt!
Exposure to EM, Uranium stocks, and just had added back some tech this week- Dell, Meta,NVDA,IBM,amzn.
SLV and BRK/b in the red slightly-
MU posted earnings beats yesterday pm that has put some gas under the tech sector. Plus positive guidance...
mid morning- gains still the order of the day-but more muted...
Sage advice from David Keller
Bull markets are born on pessimism, grow on skepticism, mature on optimism and die on euphoria.
Sir John Templeton
The year was 2013, and I was bearish.
“This is a layup,” I said to myself, as I told some of the traders on our desk that the markets were going to turn lower very soon. I was so openly bearish that the head of the trading desk referred to me as “Dr. Doom” for about six months.
If you remember your market history, you’ll know that 2013 was not a great time to be bearish. In fact, 2013 and 2014 may be the strongest two-year period for the S&P 500 over my entire 24-year career. Ouch.
So why was I so bearish?
Well, the 2007 market top was still pretty fresh in my mind. And as I saw the S&P get all the way back to the 1500 level again, right where the 2007 and 2000 market tops had occurred, it felt like an obvious conclusion that the market would top out at that same level yet again.
The most painful part of this story is that even after the market moved higher through the course of 2013, I remained bearish. I ignored the signs of strength, the consistent uptrends, the frequent breakouts.
I was so sure the market was going to top out that I stopped paying attention to the message the markets were providing back to me!
When I finally threw in the towel on my bearish call, and acknowledged the market strength was leading to further market strength, I think that was when I became a card-carrying trend-follower. And I promised myself to follow the message of the markets first, and think about my own market calls second.
Fast forward to 2024, and I would argue that if John Templeton were alive today, he would probably think we’re in the “euphoria” stage from today’s quote. And I would agree. Sentiment indicators are getting to elevated levels, breadth indicators are so bullish they’re kind of contrarian bearish, and we’re seeing initial warnings from the Hindenburg Omen.
But just because we see signs of euphoria does not mean that we ignore the bullish trends that just keep pushing higher as we wrap Q3. I see this market as “innocent until proven guilty,” and while I can cite plenty of reasons why our benchmarks should see limited upside, I can also recognize that the market trend remains quite positive.
Mindless investors get into trouble when they get so caught up in their investment narrative that they ignore what the markets are actually doing. Mindful investors realize that the most important message of all is the one the markets provide to us in the form of price action!
RR#6,
Dave
PS- Looking for a mentor to help you identify when the message of the markets has shifted from bullish to bearish? Our Market Misbehavior premium members get frequent market updates, access to an interactive community of like-minded investors, and get Dave’s insights and expertise all along the way! Use code DK2024 at checkout for 30% off your first 12 months!
Today's newsletter is brought to you by Koyfin, a platform designed to give individual investors and financial advisors access to institutional-level market data and analytics. I use Koyfin every day to analyze sector weightings in an ETF, break down analyst recommendations for Nvidia, visualize risk vs. return for a portfolio, and so much more.
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In my latest YouTube video, I look into the current bear phase of the market, highlighting the breakdown in mega cap growth stocks. We examine the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100, noting key shifts in breadth conditions and the critical impacts of overextended leaders like Super Micro Computer, Microstrategy, Amazon, and Netflix.
I also discuss how these changes influence broader market dynamics and risk-off conditions moving into May and beyond. As a bonus, I share insights on how to utilize quantitative ratings from Seeking Alpha to navigate these turbulent times. Stay tuned to get a comprehensive view of this pivotal market phase!
EOD- A bit volatile- am strength weakened, faded, but came back @ EOD-
China had a big move, and all things China were higher- I didn't chase China, but dbld several EM positions
Did make a couple of day trades for a net break-even overall-but the focus was almost all about the swing trades....
NVDA made an initial nice + $7 move that totally faded out- Moves like that makes one ask why didn't I tighten a -take profits- stop on this?
stop $127.75
TZA/TNA- whipsawed on trade 1- trade 2 $10.42- stp now $10.40 Not seeing the MOMO up move break higher I looked for.
Reduced size to 250 on Trade 2 - Trade 1 was a late entry- did not have a stochastic that cycled lower-
Trade 2 stochastic had cycled back down and then turned higher.
11:40 consolidating just above the stop :Risk is $0.02
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Post by sd on Sept 27, 2024 10:34:59 GMT -5
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Post by sd on Nov 2, 2024 6:32:18 GMT -5
Brian Shannon- promoted the Anchored VWAP as a tool vs the static V wap
Weekly recap:https://alphatrends.net/archives/premium_articles/stock-market-crypto-analysis-november-1-2024/
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Post by sd on Nov 3, 2024 17:59:33 GMT -5
DOW JONES INDEX- 30 CAP WEIGHTED STOCKS- Intel getting tossed out
Jason Leavitt- interview- Trading with a designed approach- and recognizing when it doesn't work-
Good interview- worth watching...Learning How To Grind | Jason Leavitt Is Off The Charts
www.youtube.com/watch?v=XXgaIV2UKxE
1.42 pm TNA- High Fill on the buy-stop $43.68 - stop loss $43.48- vs the swing low $43.28
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Post by sd on Nov 4, 2024 7:41:13 GMT -5
11.4.2024- Futures slightly green pre mkt open.
NVDA and Sherwin Williams replacing DOW,INTC in the Dow Jones this week.
Election day tomorrow! Glad for all of these negative adds to come to an end-
Perhaps we'll get a viable 3rd candidate in 2028.
The Elections are an overhang on the markets. Once the election results are known, the mkts can evaluate the results /impact on economic policy-and perhaps then give consideration to earnings, PE's, and whether we will achieve a soft landing without a recession.
The DEBT has doubled in the Trump and Biden administration- So, the interest we pay to finance the DEBT is ever increasing- and neither candidate wants to speak as to how the debt will be lowered during their administration- It's like the homeowner that applies for a new credit card because they've maxed out the ones they have-
Savvy economic speakers, and business owners recognize that taxes are going to go higher- as gov't spending largess necessitates acquiring more sources of income- Harris talking taxing unrealized gains - and policies that are viewed as anti-business- Harris is very much pro woman's rights-
Trump is viewed as business friendly- better for the stock market, and stronger on national defense and Pro-Israel. Trump also is seen as being responsible for supporting the reversal of Rowe-Thru the Supreme Court appointees, and a huge negative for a woman's rights to choose-
Trump is also seen as continuing to be reactive- and a verbal bully against those he thinks are not supportive- He can open his mouth and say
insensitive comments-
Harris has tried to reach for the center instead of playing to the left wing progressives- but she is portrayed as a left winger- soft on crime, immigration, and not seen as a strong global leader-
The 2 candidates are a world apart- I would prefer to see a more centrist candidate that takes the center road-
The Jan 6 insurrection and denial of the election results by Trump is a wake up call that he doesn't believe in the electorial process- that it is manipulated by the Dem's with fraud- a very dangerous assumption he promotes-
BA continued strike has long term impacts on the airlines- and travel....Delays in receiving new planes reduces the airlines capacity to meet demand...m the newer airplanes use 20% less fuel and carry 20% more passengers- according to Ryan air ceo ...
I took a small BA position last week- assuming this 3rd union vote - may see this strike resolved-
As a new short term swing position- it potentially set up last week after making a higher swing low from the prior week's low.
Warren sells more AAPL-
TSLA losing mkt share in China.
Warren has the big picture in mind:
BA- set a stop under the pm swing low $153.25 - stop is triggered on price reversing from green to red.
Stop fills $153.24
Stochastic slow to make an upturn -Price demonstrating bullish Elder green.
I did not get much on the open of an upside move as I had anticipated could occur- and so my premise that the weekend would see strike over optimism- and Price volatility exceeded the pm swing low and triggered my stop- net a loss on 20 shares. -$1.51 x 20 =- $30.00+
I'm not intending another entry here, just tracking the Price action- The Quick reversal lower off the Open negated my premise on how the trade could potentially see
the 10 am - often sees a directional decision- retail done buying and selling- Will BA break out higher?
The early volatility ofen quiets down from here- Price bars get tighter... we'll see ...
MKTS are relatively flat- Dow and Nas Red slightly- S&P + 0.04 - Election overhang...
FED meeting on Thursday- Mkts betting 100% for another cut.
The mkts @ 10 am :
10:07 Price has made a Closing bar above the Friday trend line- Will $156 be resistance?
Energy names getting sold/profit taking- on a merger denial in the space.
[img src="![]() i.imgur.com/s6YBnwZ.png"]
On the BA pullback- It offered a potential to BUY near the Low end of the consolidation - with a tight stop- $155.08 stp $157.79
Re entry taken here - Risk is $0.28
sINCE THE PULLBACK BAR TOUCHED $154.80-
Dropping the stop to be $0.02 below that pullback low- from $154.79 to $154.78.
Price bars are consolidating at this level $154.80 - $155.70 10:39 am .
$1 upside move...
Stop is raised to B.E.10.46 am - I'll use the 21 ema -3M - to trail here. on a possible MOMO move- I'll trail just below each price bar low-
Coming up to the resistance from the Friday high.
Price is making a consolidation base $155.40 low
Price has moved above the prior high!
21 ema stop is rising-
Sar stop $155.67 as price pulls back from a topping bar.
Stop is holding 11.03 am $155.65-- SAR has suggested a Sell here.
Spread on the Bid/ASK ranges $0.15- $0.20 - so a stop that triggers on a pullback where a trade executes at the stop price- then becomes a market Sell order- will likely execute $0.20 lower.
Stop raised $`155.98 -
BA trade is presently in the green -negating Trade from Friday's loss-
Stop is triggered- $156.07 stop fills @ $156.04 I had it tighter on the weakening of the momentum, but elected to allow it a bit of room.
The RED bar close below the green 21 ema-would have been the last opportunity to lock in gains had I not had a stop in place.
Note that I left $0.68 on the table (Had I sold at the exact high) Buy was $155.075 Sell $156.04 Net gain + $0.97 or a small + 0.62%.
11:45 - screenshot as Price continues to fall below the 21 ema-
![]() i.imgur.com/cAncPfb.png
Price trying to tighten and consolidate sideways- early indication at the earlier resistance level..
Indexes all in the red @ 12:00- tide is going out today.
I've learned what I have, from following the traders at www.Leavittbrothers.com .
Some very experienced traders there that have been members for a decade + .
'BEAST' is a Futures Trader- that makes big trades, and Big wins using his system .
He did a write up today 11.4.2024 and gave his back history, links , etc.
If you're wandering in here @ DG's- I recommend you give the LB board the free trial that is offered.
Try Jase's classes- Follow the active traders there- and view Jase's market takes-
Give a membership a try-
Glanced back at BA 12:29 - didn't follow it as it made a move back up here
Letting things drift sideways this pm...
At the EOD- Go to the leavittbrothers board - and read the link that Beast put into his post this am-
His backstory in trading Futures is impressive- but -even more-so- is how he constructed an automated system that is profitable -albeit-also with his personal input where the profits go to fund medical research. It's an amazing story . His system is set to also be constantly in the market- but can also exit a long position and immediately shift to be short- and -then reverse back to the long side depending on the
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Post by sd on Nov 5, 2024 8:37:09 GMT -5
11.5.2024- Election day has finally arrived! Go out and Vote- I voted Early last week-
We will know who is likely elected tomorrow-not tonight. It looks like it may be a Close race-
BA strike is over-not a position- is going to open in the green.
Futures in the green @ 8:30.
IBKR- Ready to break out here- Low Risk %
split lmt orders pre open
long TNA at the open with a buy stop above the open bar that filled $42.67.- stop raised to $42.70 @ 9:42 am B.E.
IBKR roll over stops out-
still holding tna with some breathing rm-
Chart of tna & IWM
NICE $1.14 GAIN IN TNA 2 trades- 2 wins to start the day!
fOOLISH MISTAKE- Still in IBKR- my intended stop @ $155.90 was sent in as a limit buy! That is the default setting -and I've erred this a number of times as not completing the order and checking it prior to punching the SEND button- flipping across pages while that order screen was open instead of keeping the focus on that specific order- all my fault-
So, position size is dbld, stop will be $0.02 below the swing low made at $10.15 $155.50- stop at $155.48 will lock in a smaller net gain but be profitable. Stop was triggered @ 10:29 as I annotated the IBKR chart to correctly reflect my failure to adjust the limit buy to a sell-
and a re enry on the snap back-Risking $0.30 stop $ 155.95 on the entry $156.25- wide spreads $0.15- will jump the stop higher asap.
Bid is within $0.04 of the mark- Ask is $0.12 above the mark.
IBKR trade 2 stops out -$155.95 stop
VST- energy play -has pulled back $20.00 off it's recent high-
Note that the trend momentum is to the downside on the daily chart-
Seeing an early cross on the stochastic- but I used the faster chart for the entry decision, and moved my stop to get out at B.E. as price pushed to a intraday high.
Back in TNA ahead of the breakout @ 11:30 stp raised above entry $44.19 as price drops below the 6 ema. Will be @ B.E. if it executes.
The move to a new high from a am base ideally sees a stronger move-
stops getting tighter- Price holding -above the 6 ema.
VST- making a 3rd attempt to get to a higher high-
Stop is within $0.01 of my entry cost here- If it fails, it likely drops fast.
TNA breaks the rising 6 ema , stops triggered at $44.42 for a net gain of $0.23 on this last trade.
Pennies adding up today-
tna- TOOK A RE ENTRY AND A LOSS OF $0.025 ON A RAISED STOP. 1m CHARTY
sTEP AWAY FOR SOME LUNCH-
PM- SPXS/SPXL- STOPS IN BOTH @ b.e.
sUCH A WIDE RANGE IN PRICE - Would have to really size up in SPXS to be equivalent to holding SPXL.
Just playing with 100 shares & 10 shares-
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Post by sd on Nov 6, 2024 5:32:21 GMT -5
11.6.2024- @ 5 am - Trump is within 4 electoral seats @ 266- of being President .... and Harris trailing significantly @ 233-
A number of States still have not reported.
Republicans have taken a majority in the Senate- and are leading in the House-
Dowjones up over $1200 pts premkt. Nasdaq +369, S&P +136
Bitcoin up big-
TSLA up big.+36
Solar/Clean energy stocks all RED-
Harris went down ? to 219- Trump 276 @ 5:30
Chinese markets down
A RED Sweep! How could the polls be so wrong? Again.
Elon Musk- with the Kitchen Sink @ the Oval Office- Message there about the bureaucracy...
Markets up large premkt- With Trump being the uncontested victor- not only on the electoral votes but with the populist vote numbers-and a big Republican sweep-
This is the same as holding a stock into earnings- and getting a beat on all estimates...and the resulting big pop in many stocks - and drop on those that could be on the cut line- like the push towards EV's -
The 10 year is climbing higher- 4.41% and as the yield rises - mortgage rates go higher-
The KHAN attempts to take down industry, mergers etc- will be put aside in the Trump administration- although the VP to be said he liked Khan's attempt to try to break up Googl.
I sold my SPXL 3x trade into yesterday's Close- Figured that if Harris won, the markets would drop immediately- Presently holding a lot of cash- LOLO will be singing "We're in the Money" on today's higher open favoring her swing positions.
Will see a lot of higher gaps at the open- rising Treasury Yields become a negative for the stock market- typically, because it's A "saFE' investment- so, Housing rates will be going higher- a negative .
Likely stocks will continue to grind higher into December- I just don't know if this bounce today will hold- But I'll have to add back some swings- XMMO- mid cap- and perhaps some IJR or IWM- SPXL
Too large a gap for me to chase anything at the OPEN - Will look for a 10 am pause, and direction.
This is where viewing on the faster time frame can potentially aide in making a decision.
vOLATILITY- AAPL, NFLX
STEEL sector reacting to the Trump win & Tariffs. Position taken here.
Solar stocks getting thrown out
Closer view- a 1st oversold reaction, followed by a tight pullback- stp $36.84
experimenting with small size on a potential attempt to assert higher.
tRADE STOP IS TRIGGERED ON THE RED BAR DROPPING BELOW THE LOW OF THE BASE.
RIOT BEHAVING MUCH BETTER THAN MSTR!
Trailing the stp- lagging the 8 ema.....
Price invisible- notice the 3 ema- when price jumps out to ride the 3 ema, it almost always returns to get a reset at the 8 ema. So, I'm trailing a stop just a tad behind the 8 ema to capture the majority of the momentum.
That pullback came within $0.02 of my stop- and the indicators are suggesting the upside momo is waning.
The stop gets triggered on this pullback 11:52
notice how MSTR has not performed as well directionally after also having a gap higher open.
AAPL - 2 ENTRIES- Had a bullish stochastic upside move on the entry- that rolled, price moved lower and then tried to move up- dbld on the up move- and raised the stop to be below that red bar low that preceded the up move.
Taking this to an extreme perhaps- Daytrade here in AAPL with a tight stop $0.35 -below the average cost on 20 shares.
As we based sideways, I widened the stop to be below the prior swing low as I initially had set-
The Risk is still quite low- relying on the potential for a higher move without an excessively wide stop .
The failure on the 11:30 upmove to test for a Higher High is not encouraging...Suggests that the momo and buyer enthusiasm is pulling back.
1 pm continued weakness- split the stops $223.90; $223.60
Pushing the boundaries in this sideways base- Bought 20 more shares $224.29- with the stop tight $30 shares stp
$223.90 -
The 10M chart is definitely bearish
The 1H chart for a swing trade looks bullish
With Warren dumping his shares recently, is AAPL doing the buybacks down here?
The SLX trade is well in the Green- I'll try a swing
AAPL stops out $223.90/30- 10 shares a bit wider-
Played around with AAPL this pm- and failed to catch an upmove
Video- DR Steenbarger- on not going on Tilt with the trading account.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=PjFLVLqrDwI
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Post by sd on Nov 7, 2024 8:06:13 GMT -5
11.7.2024 Futures in the green but muted due to yesterday's large gains.
The chart above illustrates the sector performance annually over the prior 15 years-
It clearly illustrates that chasing performance and sector leaders and expecting that same sector to be the winner the following year is a flawed strategy-
However, recognizing momentum shifts in a sector can be a way to stay on the winning side-of investing. Periodic asset rebalancing- Monthly/quarterly rebalancing can be a viable strategy- for those that are willing to put in the time- and effort-
Brian Livingston attempted to do this with 3 different portfolios that would be adjusted on momentum- He wrote a book- Muscular Portfolios- where he expanded on this, and those portfolios were tracked at ETF.com
The Novel Investor website-https://novelinvestor.com/sector-performance/
has links to break down returns over different asset classes:
A Typical diversified portfolio model-THE AA on the chart - over this chart's 15 year time frame returns averaged just 7.51 -with 3 years in the RED 2015 -1.3% ;2018 5.6%, 2022 -16.5.
Look over the top row for the annual winners, and the bottom row for the underperformers-
Internation countries performance over 15 years.
Emerging markets:
Asset Class Returns.
RSP is the Equal Wt exposure ETF to the SPY- cap weighted-INDEX. sAME STOCKS, BUT THE MEGACAPS Like AAPL, NVDA, TSLA, AMZN< META are 30% of the weighting in the SPY . The other 93 stocks only are about 70% weighting-
Over the long term, the SPY has outperformed the RSP- but there was a shift in the AUGUST pullback as the markets tried to rotate away from the cap weighted.
Note how much deeper the pullback was for the SPY-
Since the recovery, the Cap weighted SPY has since caught back up as the megacaps continue to be performing.
longer term- The cap weight has been the significant outperformer-
Will be expecting the mkts to perform well from here into Dec.
Have to put a large % in CASH to work with the Election behind us- And the FED speak today---
using the sector performance ratings- with the SCTR score- to guide selections- both the 1 month and then the 1 week.
Diversifying in sectors- both large and smalls- sECTOR RATINGS SCTR score-
Don't always depend on the highest score-
Arthur Hills AH-etf 0130 SECTOR ETFS
The 1 Month-
Made a good number of new positions today, but after yesterday's big pop it's chasing-
Will try to view these as potential Swings with some volatility to be expected. Goes against my Risk adverse nature I admit.
Late afternoon I took quite a few day trades in RIOT- using the 1M chart- Had to use the 1M in order to gauge the entry and raising the stops- Ended up Used a 1 lot position as I tried to get a sense of how it behaved. and quickly raised stops- Overall, I ended up
with a few wins, a few break evens, and a few losers- 13 round trip trades for a net $0.025 gain LOL! Best win + $0.10
Worst loss -0.07 Something that Beast at LB said recently resonated - He said that when he took the price bars off his chart and only viewed the indicator action, his trading greatly improved. What I'm finding is the challenge of a choppy up and down in a channel that doesn't evolve into a larger trend move is simply a chop zone.
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Post by sd on Nov 8, 2024 11:13:01 GMT -5
11.8.2024- Markets showing a hangover this am. - Dow in the green.
Seeing green from SLX, URA going RED...
EOD- Incorporated positions into charts, with the daily, 2Hr, 15M - marked up the purchase prices and the initial stops.
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Post by sd on Nov 11, 2024 9:02:46 GMT -5
11.11.24
All green premkt!
REvisited the DEVO approach this weekend-
PDF done by MMOY back in 2020 - He uses the same approach today as back in 2015-
Both Swing and daytrades- prolific poster @ LB
Give www.Leavittbrothers a trial- Check out Devoid- and his approach- use the Search feature to view a decade of posts going back a decade.
Positioned with a high% in swing positions-due to the mkt reaction to the election.
Raising stops on positions- Took losses in copx.
ADDED back financial equity co's OWL, APO- BIG moves in APO
will continue to adjust stops - most are Close to Break even- a few in profits area.
iN losing trade in URA after it initially went higher last week-
Stop is pennies below today's swing low- as Price made a 1st assert- and then the pullback that is so often seen- It then qualifies as a "RedBox " trade- where the entry is taken so tight to the Point of Failure-
tHE CHART SHOWN BORROWS FROM methods shown by DEVOID, Beast, and GEO/rat.
Each of these traders has a different approach but there is generally a common ground-
This trade may not work out- but the RISK is in pennies- very tight to the Point of Failure-
The Stochastic did not confirm my entry. The price declined , and the Stochastic cycled back higher-(hook up) on the bullish blue bar.
12.57 Note that the price declies, and the stochastic then hooks up on the blue bar higher Close-
I believe this would be the confirmation that Devoid would typically want to see to confirm an entry
1 pm Jeaporady- Red BAR-
1.06 the 3M chart
1.10 Price hasn't broken to a Lower Low- Yet-
Have to rely on what the chart says - but the 'logic' says the demand for power favors nuclear going forward- and Nat GAS-
The 3M chart followed by the 5M chart-
1:25 - indexes S&P, NAS in the RED.
URA trade does not look promising.
The bigger picture seen thru a 2 hr chart
fINALLY! A HIGHER HIGH APPEARS ! HH.
2pm stop raised to Entry B.E.
2:30 pm Trade is still positive- Can we see the S&P recover and move higher?
Bullish green bar- S&P getting back some green.
As a trade- my initial entry was last week 100 @ $30.14 - Price went higher- had a decent GAIN THAT ROLLED OVER-
I failed to elevate the entry stop after a daily Red bar lower move- Price then continued today to go Below B.E.
and that prompted me to take on a DEVO trade with 50 shares- Average Cost 100 $ 30.18 last week 11-6 as I was adding positions for swing trades on the positive mkt reaction. The 50 add today $30.08 --- Stops are now - just above my avg entry cost $30.11 @ $30.20.
ura STOPS RAISED @ cLOSE
inadvertently CLOSED THE 5m CHART
Raised the stops higher just prior to the close- Price held up .
@ THE eod-
tHIS WAS A decent example of applying the basic DEVO method to consider a low Risk trade entry- using the 5M time frame and a couple of indicators- I saw my initial entry turn from immediately profitable for several days-turn and go lower... failed to take action and raise the stop- into a losing position- I simply am Risk Adverse- and trying to stretch my limitations- but not willing to give back much on a % basis-
I bought another 1/2 the position size today (50) - slightly below my initial Buy (100) based solely on the price action and the 5M chart- The position Had turned from positive to slightly negative- But by applying the DEVO approach (as i interpret it) I increased my position size at a very tight Risk to my position stop-loss if the trade fails- I've used this same approach a few times with some success by targeting a very low Risk entry -
I'm a slow learner- comes with Age- we get too rigid in our opinions, our bodies, and in our approach to hold onto what we have become accustomed to...because it's familiar -like that sweater we have worn for the past 3 years on cold days. I encourage you to give the traders at Leavittbrothers a look- and Jase has always an updated list for swing traders- and a nightly report and a weekend summary report.
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Post by sd on Nov 12, 2024 9:22:41 GMT -5
11.12.2024
Showing a bit on the RED side.
Yesterday Close :
Leading yesterday - XLY- 95.7, XLF 92.4, XLC 90.6, XLI 84.6 WITH SCTR SCORES .YESTERDAY 11.11.
tHESE 4 ARE THE SAME LEADERS OVER THE 1 MONTH, AND 3 MONTH-
THE 1 WEEK LEADERS -XLY 95.7, XLF 92.4, XLC 90.6, XLI 84.6
THE 1 MONTH LEADERS XLY 11.6%; XLF 7.27%; XLC 6.96%; XLI 3.45%
THE 3 MONTH LEADERS XLY 26.13%; XLF 18.09%; XLC 13.87% XLI 15.06%
URA TANKS AT THE OPEN- stopped out for a net loss. Stop was set $30.18 - URA Opens $30.10 stop fills $29.91
adjusting stops on all swing positions-
Rat to DEVOID @ LB on SOXL:
Beast chart soxs/soxl
Rat- @ the LB board-demonstrating the recent NVDA price action RED Box price action-
I'm in the RED- on Every position this am- Meaning that today's prices are below Yesterday's Close- and I've tightened stops this am to minimize losses, capture gains.
A lot of stops have triggered.
Amazing to see everything in the RED as I'm holding a diverse variety of positions. Biggest winners become the bigger losers as participants protect their profits.
The reason for the 3 repetitive listings is that I have the charts showing each position on 3 different time frames- daily, 2HR, 15M
so, with stocks all taking a breather-today- I had to resort to tightening stops to mitigate chasing the election up move and buying stocks at a higher level. Many of these positions have stopped out this am- as the selling momentum swept thru ...
EOD :
URA dropping into the open and triggering my stop -$0.20 fill below
and- the reversal back higher- (did not re enter here)
![]() [/img] ![]() [/img] When it Pays to step aside!  [/font] |
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Post by sd on Nov 13, 2024 8:12:47 GMT -5
11.13.2024
Futures premkt slightly in the RED-
Yesterday was a 1st real set back in this uptrending mkt.
My reaction yesterday was damage control- and I had raised stops in the face of the wide selling- and ended up in CASH -
I also had a large cash position into the election- and so I ended up chasing the mkt as it made that substantial move higher-
This market dip likely won't go far- but the markets were priced pretty high - 22x- that's at the high end of the valuation spectrum, so watching market participation and rotation is prudent.
From the LB board-today- initial dip lower may signal a potential pullback within the uptrend- That's 'normal' for mkts-
The question is -how far? a minor 5% dip is common.
RKLB, CAVA- BIG EARNINGS REACTION-
yESTERDAY'S MKT PERFORMANCE- tHE VAST MAJORITY OF EQUITIES SAW A PULLBACK FROM THE PRIOR DAY.
9 am- Futures turn into the Green. CPI report ...
Will yesterday selling be a 1 day Wonder?
Hmmm- logged in here in 2 different pages? lost chart posts of TZA/tna trade?
2 tRADES- tRADE 1 - PISS POOR TIMING-
@ 12:28 CHANGED TO A $0.05 tRAILING STOP
pRESENTLY STOP TRIGGER IS $10.53
sar-sTOP AND rEVERSE POSITIONS- Long TNA as TZA stops out extended & away from the trend line
TNA- a 2nd entry on the pop back up- Took a $3 loss on trade 1 in TNA-
Back to TZA as it came back to the trend line and moves higher-
Reacting here to Price action alone.
Grinding out -with a trailing $0.05 stp that will sell at -$0.01 below B.E. Had an initial higher move, but now a pause
Buy stop tna fills $53.80 as TZA stop triggers on price decline.
Trailed a stop tight- fills as Price moves up bullishly
Getting impatient and that's not a positive for allowing price much leeway-
Too many stutter steps in my trading today-
Barely back in the Green- But as soon as my stop triggers, Price -instead of pulling back lower- Continues to Trend higher.
2:12 pm :Price continues to move higher- without me- As Prof D has demonstrated @ LB many times- The ability to withstand some shallow volatility- once your trade is in the green- is an acquired skill Trade 1 set a defensive tone- Poor execution on my part- Price was obviously extended- and did not meet the criteria for an entry- I got pulled into the trade as the bar was positively green and it looked like a potential reversal of trend was in the making.
3 PM- THE MOMENTUM REMAINS TO THE UPSIDE!
At the EOD, winning trade in TNA, and then again in TZA brougvht me back solidly in the green.
I split the TZA position going in to the Close- sold 125 2 minutes before the Close- and my order to mkt sell the remainder didn't get in -in time-
And, I had the "Clock" counting down the seconds. So, I'm holding a partial TZA into tomorrows Open. Don't care to be in that position.
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Post by sd on Nov 14, 2024 9:24:24 GMT -5
11.14.2024 Futures were green earlier ahead of the PPI report.
Will be dealing with getting final pricing for a new HVAC unit today-
Gas line install $2,500- 450' line 200' is free- the remaining 250 @ $10/foot.
New energy efficient unit comes in above $10k +
Will watch the open to monitor the TZA position-
Stop is in place to retain some profits unless we get a gap down lower on the open.
Markets all in the RED- Defense sector dropping -3% World must have declared Global Peace all of a sudden-
Now I feel safer.
Did get a HVAC decision - staying with Propane for now-
Glanced at URA -entered a tad late- $30.29 stop now $30.29 - and moving on to work on the hvac stuff.
Can't watch closely- Set a wide Trailing Stop $0.15- guarantees a gain above my entry.
But- Like a Moth drawn back again and again to a flame- indicators showing momo slowing-
EOD: Prudent to raise the stop
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Post by sd on Nov 15, 2024 5:45:09 GMT -5
11.15.2024
Futures large in the RED
Meeting the HVAC person late am. Likely won't be trading this am...some design stuff to figure out.
Mid Afternoon-
EOD
eNDING THE WEEK ON A -Down note...
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Post by sd on Nov 18, 2024 4:54:45 GMT -5
11.18.2024
Premkt- the Nas and S&P are showing some potential green @ 5:30 am, but the Dow is in the red -127 pts
O.T. Won't be participating in any market actions today-
LOLO and I Spent the weekend demo-ing the old unit and duct enclosure- and some of the sloped masonry foundation- to get to a level coursing. Installed a treated 2x6 sill plate, and used 16 GA structural galvanized studs to extend a platform for the new unit.
The new HVAC unit will be a package unit- Elec heat pump with a gas back up for temps that go below 38 degrees.
Requires a new support framework to mount the unit on and so the ductwork can flex down into the crawl space.
Almost ready for the treated plywood decking, and then roofing membrane. Here in NC, the frost level is just 6" - and so a full basement is not common . a 4' deep- or less- crawlspace is generally adequate.
At the end of the day, the ladder seen here wasn't in place- (Foolish) -Tried to use the bucket to climb out- which slipped out from under my foot, and I took a ribcracking fall onto the metal stud and ended up back down in the crawl space with the wind knocked out of me and in a lot of pain. It took 5 minutes or so before I could regain my footing- Lolo got the ladder so I could climb out - and then bandaged the ribs with an ace bandage- Initially I thought I had broken a rib or two- and possibly punctured the lung-but after a few minutes to get my bearings again- realized I was indeed very lucky - and no lung puncture and I don't think any broken ribs- just sore as all getout- particularly if I try to bend over-.
Will get to complete the platform today once the HVAC company confirms the needed opening from the house-
While waiting for daylight- will be adjusting some charts.
When one uses the standard indicator time frames, such as MACD 12-26-9 The histogram is also set @ 12-26-9 -
As previously noted, one can modify the indicators time periods to be signaling earlier by changing the parameters.
Referencing Beast's charts at Leavittbrothers.com -
His 'HOOK' system looks to be in the market at all times- both Long- and then go Short- on a very fast time frame-with an overview from a higher time frame to play the squiggles up and down found in the price action and evidenced as one views the progressive volatility swings the faster one drops down in time.
DEVOID- also @ Leavittbrothers- favors a 2 hr chart for swing trades- and a 5 Minute chart for day trades.
If one sets the MACD to be 12-26-1- as Beast shows- it becomes a single line- and can ALSO be a reference for the directional turns,up, down sideways-
tHE STANDARD 12-26-9 OFTEN IS SEVERAL DAYS SLOW in making the cross of the 0.0 line- in both directions-
Note in the chart- the histogram (Blue vertical bars behind the MACD - and the yellow behind the price-
show a change in the price momentum that often precedes a turn in direction.
in the chart above, note that the Red lines show the MACD cross of the fast line over slow line .When this occurs- the histogram shows a new bar above the 0.0 line . In the example above - price had several bullish higher closing bars before the actual crossover- and the histogram goes from a bigger declining bar to a shorter bar -
That uptick in the histogram does not always guarantee a winning early entry - but the price does move in a positive direction.
In the chart below-HU When the Histogram 1st upticks from a bearish declining histogram below the 0.0 line indicates the slowing momentum that price has been demonstrating- When price is uptrending rising emas-the success of the HU as an early entry is a high probability. Note that the HU signal in the declining ema in July preceded an up attempt to reverse the trend- but that fails- \The HU signal OCCT 4 was followed by a 1 day Red bar decline- Histogram dropped lower- but the next day the HU saw a trend move higher.
ALSO- IN THE CHART
Add a faster MACD to the MACD 12-26-1 to get the earlier signal as that will turn up or down ahead of the 12-26-1-
Direction is important - also- a histogram for both time frames can be placed behind the lines- and the uptick in those histograms can be an early indication for a potential change in momentum.
Will
hist 12-26-9 shown on the macd1
hist 7-16-6
confirmation depends on the predominant trend , and stochastic, CCI-
My thinking here is to use the histogram in the background behind the indicators to reduce the number of individual panels- and increase the Price chart height on the page.
Also- while there may be a few failed signals- - when one has confidence in recognizing the prevailing trend direction- and trading on faster time frames WITH that prevailing trend - the opportunity to get an earlier entry to become a larger win- is higher- Be certain to realize though- that the Daily chart being in an uptrend may see that the 1 hour chart is in a decline- and then the 15 Minute may indicate an uptrend and the 5Min may suggest a decline--
Trends shift within trends depending on the time frame one uses.
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