SD-2024 BE PROACTIVE-STOP THE W-C-S woulda-coulda-shoulda

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8.1.2024 eod- SWING TRADES took hits today-Smalls got hammered- and semis' except a couple of recent adds- XLU, GLD, TMO.Real estate. DRN,xlre
But the losses to gains were 3:1 ...and, I failed to have tight stops on the recent entries-
Winning trade in TZA, but I w-c-s- have given it more room to run-
I ended up setting 4 different levels today for stops-
Trade 1- sell to lock in a small profit on 1/4- got a nice pop higher- I split 3 remaining stops-adjusted 2 higher- too close- to each other, at a higher price thaT GOT TAGGED BY A MINOR PULLback in the up trend- The final 1/4 stop- I saw what appeared to be a divergence in the indicato suggesting momentum was likely slowing. and tightened that stop aggressively- W-c-s stayed with the 8 ema or psar - but my 'greed' -or fear of losing pennies cost me $dollars in unrealized profits that were there for the taking.

Doing a recap /review at the EOD is really beneficial- A very simple lesson to be learned by today's Trade- Allow your winner a little bit of rope to RUN- This was so obvious- It was 11:20 before TZA had a bar Close below the fast 3 EMA ! that was 2 hours of vertical price increases with barely a pause.

The 2M I was following- should have kept the 5M & 10M for perspective-


ISM reports- Seeing further slow down- and many are declaring the FED should have given at least a .25 cut yesterday-
Going to be too late in September if the economy continues to show deepening weaknes is a concern of many.
www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-report-on-business/
Lots of earnings-this week- And stocks that don't meet and beat the whisper number-and don't offer upbeat guidance. are paying a price-
Treasury bonds reacted poorly- Fed take notice!
INTC down -18% on lowered guidance- and cut the dividend and will be cutting the workforce-

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A sell-off Friday - Trading just very small size tZA experimenting with trying to trade -early-
presently holding a position in TNA as it is rebounding late AM.

Not posting much here, as I have started to rely more on recording sessions for review and recapping the trade-
Finally discovered the Pause button on OBS- Next to Stop Recording... DUH!

TNA

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Saturday- Will review and shorten videos- Friday trading - we've seen a hard market sell-off this week-
Friday appeared to be continuing that with a big gap down on the open.
My focus was on the small caps - as they are particularly vulnerable to rates.
I intentionally experimented - on counter trend trades- at 1st I only purchased 4 shares-
Whether 4 shares or a 100 shares- My intention is to sell 1/4 of the trade to get an initial gain-
Counter trend trades are fighting the directional momentum- and a ROT can take time-to develop- or be a sharp V move- Lower probability than trading With the dominant trend.

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Market Maker and algo trading- Trading against you...

www.warriortrading.com/market-makers-and-algos-class/
a 2 week Trial $19 offer is linked in the video. That's a deal!
Does not automatically renew -to a full price subscription- I also like that- $19 is the total fixed cost and 10 trading days-


I'm liking that inexpensive offer- to view a different Trader's website's approach to the market- and to sample a portion of the content.
The LB website has good member commentary, but no active video ......

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Sunday- 8-4-2024 Jason's index report
"If the market only trended up, everyone would eventually figure it out.

If the market only traded in a range, everyone would figure that out too.

But the market changes - not fast - but it changes, and when the character and personality change, we need to immediately change our operations.

It's part of the dichotomy of trading, where you're required to alternate between different mindsets or approaches.

Ray Dalio talks about needing to be aggressive and defensive at the same time. If you're not aggressive, you won't make money. But if you're not defensive, you won't keep it.

A trader needs to have structure but flexibility within the structure. Structure offers guidelines to approach the market. It's setups, market conditions, rules, etc. This is the mechanics of trading. It keeps you on course so you aren't swayed by the day-to-day or intraday noise. But there needs to be flexibility within the structure because there'll be times you size up or size down or abandon the market all together based on how the market is acting and how trades are performing. Most traders struggle to balance structure and flexibility. They're too much of one or the other at all times rather than moving back and forth from to the other.

Another dichotomy is the need to embrace uncertainty in the near term while maintaining confidence in the long term. If the market trends up 15-20% in a year, there will be several 5% drops and possibly one 10% correction. What separates a lot of traders is the ability to recognize short-term weakness within a longer term trend to be a great opportunity. Keeping your head on straight enables traders to enter at great levels while others are panicking. Weeks later when the market recovers, amateurs realize they sold at exactly the wrong time while pros used the weakness to position for a continuation of the trend.

There are many dichotomies. There are many times it's necessary to balance contradictory operations or mindsets in short periods of time. Traders can get good at anything. It's when the market changes - and it always changes - that traders get into trouble because they continue using yesterday's methods on today's market.

If you want to break through to the other side, you must be aware of the need to change when it's obvious change is needed. Don't force things when things aren't working. Don't hope for that one more move in your favor. Listen to the message the market is trying to tell you.

Your best indicator is the success of your trades. If your trades are working, keep going. If they're working okay but you've noted they're not following through like they used to, alter your management technique. And if you have a few losers in a row, the market is sending you a clear message something has changed. Your style is likely out of sync. Listen to the message and act on it. Don't continue forward as if yesterday's market still existed.

The short term trend is now down. Sentiment is poor. The path of least resistance is down. There will be bounces, but they will eventually get sold. The market is not acting well. This seems to be worse than a normal pullback within an uptrend. It's probably going to continue. And we need to make necessary changes. Let's get to the charts."

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8.5.2024- Markets tanking again at today's open -
Recession is now the concern .
Bond mkt is signaling the FED blew it by not being more bullish on cutting rates- and waiting for September.
i'LL BE TAKING LARGER LOSSES ON SWINGS i HAD HIDDEN ON MY EQUITY TAB.- Painful to do, but when I realized I was seeing losses in the red that did not represent losses on my listed ETFs holdings- The equity tab had been closed- did not display the positions in the IRA. Clicked on the tab- and my positions were displayed- all 2 days in the red last week-
Set a stop under the LOD- as prices were trying to bounce a little from oversold- but this open will take them off-
Nas is down over 1,000 pts
Tech getting a bigger whacking.
Katie Stockton suggesting to sell if we get any kind of a snap back rally, and be positioned for a deeper sell-off-
I have XLU still with profits and showing green -premarket. but my GLD position sold off last week- totally not doing what I expected in market weakness.



Bought MSFT and DRN on the bounces.
DRN and real estate xlre will likely stop out soon-12.33

bOTH STOPPED OUT - NET GAINS-
REENTERED msft AS it made a dbl bottom base this pm- Added size in the position- - with a stop under the low in the prior base-
Risking 8o% of the earlier gain locked in on a large 30 share position taken here. It looks like it's about to retest and likely stop out.


and, it does.



Somedays, you think you've got it figured out- and yet- the market proves you wrong- Again






Beast TZA chart to Knewt

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Tuesday- 8-6-2024
Futures are in the green as global markets and the Japan mkt is higher-
Today may see a rally - but as Katie Stockton warned- it's likely an opportunity to see a snap back short term rally- and to sell some off -or to at least raise stops after a move higher.
Won't be doing much trading today, will be spending some time with 2 of our granddaughters later this am- maybe lunch and then a movie .

Jason's explanation of how the 'Carry' trade provoked the global sell-off yesterday- and perhaps exacerbated by the poor jobs report we received,

................
On one hand, in the short term, the market's movement is entirely a function of short-term supply and demand imbalances, which are either due to traders’ emotions - they fear missing out, so they chase higher, or they fear losing money, so they sell lower - or forced buying and selling due to margin requirements.

The Japan carry trade starts as voluntary selling - traders sell their American holdings and send the money back to Japan to cover their shorts.

But when Japan raised interest rates, the gap between their gains in the US and their loss in Japan narrowed, so the urgency to unwind the trade accelerates, causing more selling in the US and more buying in Japan.

More selling in the US causes stocks to decline enough that traders start to hit the panic button. They either don't want to lose money, or they don't want to give gains back. So, they sell because everyone else is selling. And before you know it, the market is in a full-on panic. Selling begets selling, which begets more selling.

It has nothing to do with earnings. Or the health of the economy. It's entirely a short-term knee-jerk reaction. Stocks fall hard. News headlines are terrible. Traders need to sell to lesson exposure. And, of course, the computers sense this, so they press the issue.

Eventually the selling triggers margin calls. Super aggressive traders who were on margin experience accelerated losses. They have losses in their holdings. And losses with the borrowed money. And they still have to return the borrowed money. If it adds up unfavorably, brokers send out notes to sell and get off margin. Raise cash to have a cushion in your account. Or they'll sell for you.

So, the first bought of selling is voluntary. Then comes panic selling due to fear of losing money. Then comes the margin calls, which put more downside pressure on the market.

But again, none of this is due to earnings or the economy or anything that's important. It's a trade initiated in Japan - because they keep their rates artificially low - that needed to be unwound.

When it's unwound, I would not expect stocks to immediately go back to their highs because some of the buying that put them at their highs was due to the carry trade in the first place. If you remove that buying pressure, stocks lose a little support. But it doesn't mean the market will be in bad shape, it just means there's one source of buying that has dried up.

The market was possibly going to decline anyways, so even without the carry trade, a month or two of sideways or down movement was on the table.

In the near term, my thoughts are as follows. Nothing is different today relative to last week. So, from an organic standpoint, there's no reason for the market to just collapse. But unwinding the carry trade can take time. And the psychological damage inflicted will take time to heal. I would expect things to get back to normal eventually, but it'll take some time. Technical damage has been done. Psychological damage has been done. Traders accounts have suffered losses, so traders will be gun shy. Even when the carry trade is undone, it'll take some time for the market to heal and for traders to feel comfortable getting back in the pool.

Peter Lynch said: If not for the bear markets, the outsized gains from history's best investors would not have been possible.

Don't fight a market correction. Fantastic buying opportunities are coming.

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8.7.2024 Futures in the green...
TNA trade I left open with a $0.75 Trailing stop as we left for the day- didn't get home until 7 pm ...
Fund day with 2 of our granddaughters and a movie- IN and Out 2

TNA -ended up going higher on the breakout- GAined + $0.72 above my entry, but then came back to trigger my trailing stop-loss.
I had hoped to see it go significantly higher-

Did the Video Review this am- I think this review and recap is most helpful in identifying places I can improve-
For example- I tried several small counter trend trades in TZA- that failed-- but note the 11 am thrust that consolidated and moved $0.60 higher before reversing to the downside and breaking down @ 11:45-

The video review process also enables me to hear what my thought process was as I take a trade, set my stop, at what level and
4then I get to see if my thinking was accurate -or -is proved incorrect...

In hindsight - adapting to changes during the course of the day - adding resistance and trend lines -for example-

The lag in stock charts realtime charts is significant when daytrading - about 20 seconds before the active last price exchange shows up on the chart- Critical if using the faster time frames and looking for a scalp-

I also need to ensure I preset an active order of 1 share for a wide stop-loss and a wide buy-stop order that I can work off the order screen page- instead of going through the Trade order process-page...

Keeping both charts- the long and the inverse up side by side- and focusing on making the focus on those shares.












From Jason nightly
Trading is a seasonal activity - like watering flowers in the spring or raking leaves in the fall. It's something we do couple times/year when conditions are great, but otherwise we need to be more careful and defensive. Most of the time, we can still operate outside these ideal conditions, as long as our expectations are in concert with what's offered. But a few times, the environment may be so unpredictable that we are best off in cash, on the sidelines. This is where we are right now.

I can see the market running up to lure traders in...and then slamming it back down and the lows being taken out.

Or just slam it down now...then rally it hard...and then slam it again.

Considering what has taken place the last week, nobody can be confident they know what's coming next. Nobody can have conviction holding trades for multiple days. You can't be comfortable holding into earnings. It's just a mess. It's a great environment for short-term traders but not ideal for those wishing to holding longer.

It's okay to stand aside and let others have their day. But I don't recommend completely tuning the market out. Down time is a time to observe and learn. If you stop watching, you miss an opportunity to be exposed to something new.

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Thursday 8-8-2024
Futures in the RED premarket 6 am.
Torrential rain here as the remnants of hurricane Debby come through NC

How lEAVITT BROTHERS HANDLED THE PAST 2 WEEK SELL-OFF- Short video on his cautionary comments posted to members since July....
He sends out a nightly assessment of market conditions.

www.youtube.com/watch?v=ya9MKkhYKlg



Yesterday intentionally dropped down to just trading a very small 10 share position- reduced the Risk

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Friday 8.9.2024

Mkts higher yesterday-
Excerpt from Jason's pm recap

'This market cannot be swing traded. 100 points down, 100 points up - this is fertile ground for day trades, but when a perfectly good setup breaks out...and then gets clobbered...and then does exactly what the chart originally hinted at...that's not an environment where anyone can be confident in the next move. Volatility is so high, a minor move against you can quickly be a catastrophe the next morning.

A move down wipes out the Long List. Then a move up wipes out the Short List.'

Example from BEAST @ LB board- a prior student sends him these multiple screenshot views-on different time frames-down to the 20 Second chart- where the trade is initiated.
illustrating how a setup develops potentially on the larger time frame, and is then executed on a faster time frame confirming how the trade
Posted this previously- but doing so again with my interpretation:
<p>
His process is indicator reliant- and is used not only on Futures trading- but stocks and likely forex.
The NQ often is a tell on what the qqq's or xlk is following-
He does not use the conventional setting for his indicators- and most are banded to show a standard deviation level above and below- equating to overbought and oversold-

{img]https://i.imgur.com/0AhLfSD.png[/img]



On identifying the HFT -that are used by Algorithms to trade markets-

Hi Dr. D. I believe you are way off on what percentage of trading is controlled by who. Attached is a link to an article regarding the 15 well known high-frequency trading firms. The article is from 2018 and it is VERY outdated, but even then, you estimate is off. So see my 2nd comment below this one
Individual traders who start exploring algo trading might wonder who some of the largest automated traders are. Although it is hard to know the exact number, some industry reports indicate that high-frequency trading firms, or HFTs, account for approximately 50–60% of U.S. equity trading volume.
- Beast, 17:01 08/05/2024
from 2018-:
medium.com/automation-generation/15-well-known-high-frequency-trading-firms-f45292c56d05
Recent article- 2/3 is HFT trading
www.polytechnique-insights.com/en/columns/economy/high-frequency-trading-what-are-the-risks-and-the-returns-for-financial-markets/#:~:text=On%20the%20equity%20markets%2C%20around,out%20by%20high%2Dfrequency%20traders.


Investopedia article on HFT- Liquidity there one minute- gone the next...Responsible for the flash crashes seen.
www.investopedia.com/terms/h/high-frequency-trading.asp



tza -beast 8-5-24





@ 8:40 am Futures have drifted lower-into the RED.







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8.12.2024

Futures in the green premarket-.
Jason Leavitt -on the Money Show Tuesday pm 3:20 pm -

My topic is: How to Trade with RSI, MACD, and Stochastic
Click here to register for the presentation.

online.moneyshow.com/2024/august/virtual-expo/registration/?scode=063322

MKTS believing that the FED will have to start rate cuts in September- Key reports will be out this week -
Earnings reports from retailers and guidance is showing a continued slowi

ng on the consumer's ability to spend.

HMMM- Skunk caught in the live trap over night- Had to get wrapped up in plastic to take the critter -with a blanket over the cage- to the woods and release-It tried to come right back across the road- appeared to be very young- I blocked it from going to the road several times, and it finally turned and went back towards the woods- Still have a raccoon or two I need to relocate- will tear up the figs-and other garden produce if they remain. Very few farms remain around here-and few people garden any more... and the subdivisions springing up all over are reducing their habitat...so my materials storage area- with adjoining figs, grapes, and garden - makes a nice buffet.

1ST TRADE IN tna WORKED- 2ND TRADE SWITCHING TO tza WORKED-


tza STOPPED OUT LOCKING IN GAINS ON THE STOPS AND PARTIAL SELLS INTO THE UP THRUST-

rEPURCHASE BUY STOP FILLED- rISK IS THE SWING LOW. $0.10
Just for fun added some Fib lines to see what happens- Not a fan of FIB at all.


TZA with fork extension-

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8-14-2024 Futures flat after a big trending day yesterday-
S&P seeking to regain the 50 day> NAS dropped harder,
Data still counts- as do earnings-

Markets waiting CPI @ 8:30 this am-

Devoid bought the gap up open -on the initial Open - only a $0.05 dip back Nice +4% gain in one day



SMALLS ARE HANGING ONTO THE daTA- cpi TO READ IF THE fed WILL INDEED FIND REASONS TO cUT IN sEPTEMBER-

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fRIDAY- 8-16-2024

gOOD TRADING TODAY-TZA & TNA Didn't get to do much at all with Warrior trading even though I had signed up for their trial promotion-
Not bothering here to post much intraday anymore- Focus is on video capture of my trading buys and sells during realtime and then playing back to recap the pertinent trades- and to watch over my shoulder as I explain the what and how of the price action on the chart-

During the recap review, I'm rerecording the video- but- I jump the video ahead in 30 second hops and only play when I hear I'm making a point - or- to add a comment during the recap- An entire day's recording would be 2+ GB=8 hrs but the recap video is less than 1 hr in total length as I fast forward.
For myself, this review process -with real trades- is proving beneficial as I pick up on areas I need to focus on-

This is a gradual learning process-Old Dog and learning new tricks- and trying to keep in mind some of the suggestions and examples found at the WWW.Leavittbrothers board- I'm not trying to do too much at one time- but made several other successful small trades in SPXL and TSLA .
Focus is on using the faster time frames- and getting that tighter entry.
Paying close attention to the indicators as well and looking for the indicator signaling a divergence- ahead of the price making a move. - seems to happen frequently.
Sizing up is a gradual process- that has to be done proportionately.
A 100 share position in a $40 ETF- needs to be a 300 share position in a $15 Inverse- or- make that 50 & 150 or 25 & 75 - I've even traded just 5 shares at a time for a few days after trading poorly.

Focusing on 2 primary candidates-TZA/TNA has given me trade opportunities in both directions- That's a skill to be developed- further-to not only trade the Long side-

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8.19.2024
Futures flat- S&P put in 5 consecutive updays last week- that's a rarity- recovering from the Yen Carry trade sell-off-
IRA-Buying- lmt orders- SPHD,COWS,RSP vs SPY-

Will shift the day trading from the small caps to checkout the TQQQ,SQQQ. SPXS,SPXL.


tOO BUSY WITH ADJUSTING STOPS ON POTENTIAL SWING TRADES-
Locked in + $4 on this AMD trade- set a buy-stop to re enter if it moves back above Sar.

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8-20-24
Markets at the prior high- up 8 consecutive days- quite rare- but if the past repeats- when this occurs the markets generally end up significantly higher on the year.

Back into AMD -got stopped out with a small dip back yesterday near the Close-

Late to enter this am- Net + $3.20 with an aggressive stop-
The SMH was showing weakness





NVDA -Doubled the existing position here - Wide stop on the week + position- Risking $1.25 on this entry/share-




Busy day- NVDA, AMG, EQT, and managing a few swing trades-
Indexes closed lower- Cash position is high.