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Post by sd on Aug 21, 2024 7:07:37 GMT -5
8-21-2024
Futures green pre mkt. @ 8 am.
Devoid @ LB Trading with a more tactical tighter leash on setting stops-
Monday trade was an easy all day hold-
Tuesday was 3 choppy trades- all successful-
His chart is the 5M time frame-
However, note that his entry is seldom aligned with the actual 5M cross Tuesday-
The 1st trade did not Buy the Open on Tuesday, but caught a dip just after the Open.
Trade 2 entry was on a oversold move higher- and note how late the 5M macd cross occurs-
Trade 3 was also an entry after a price decline and entered well ahead of the Macd signal- that occurs only much later-
His years of experience, thousands of trades- captures 3 profitable trades in a choppy day-Front runs the TA not waiting or the MACD cross as the primary signal-
Relies a lot on the stochastic and the fast 3 ema hook- I think.
I posted the 1 day chart with his entries and exits below his 2 day chart posted below.
TQQQ 2 trades- SQQQ flipped to Buy the Basing near the lows with a stop $0.02 under that base lows-
Got filled just prior to the big thrust up-
Stop raised to $0.01 below the consolidation- Risk is $0.02 from my entry cost $7.87
stop is triggered
AMAZING wide volatility!
Sold Googl on the turn lower -locked in small gains -
Setting a higher buy-stop for a reentry
Volatility whipsawing the markets!
Devoid- How he is managing today's volatility:
My re entry in TQQQ
Stops adjusted from wide on the entry- to stepping up as Price moves higher-
Cost basis $70.86 stop has been adjusted 3x higher- .
GLD- large position taken-
Stop raised to under the pullback swing low-
TQQQ trade working -stop $71.30
Devoid early TQQQ whipsaw -
So he is human LOL!
3 pm-
Jason on the Money show -Trading with RSI,MACD, and Stochastic.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=CrBxMoKcypc
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Post by sd on Aug 22, 2024 7:32:09 GMT -5
8.22.2024- Futures green ahead of the jobs report-
Big job revision yesterday- off by 818,0000.
Jackson Hole meeting today-
Busy day-Swing positions all stopped out- on tight stops -including GLD-
focused on trading between SQQQ and TQQQ-
Recorded the video segments for further review-recap-
Made a lot of trades-
and annotated the Chart at the EOD- instead of trying to keep up and get distracted during real time .
Viewing both the SQQQ and the TQQQ and trying to navigate- for short term trends during the day- is a challenge.
The wide variation in price between SQQQ and TQQQ is similar to some of the other 3x longs and their inverse counterparts-
What becomes evident is that if I went into Trade 1 and simply Held it - it never came back to test my initial stop- The stop could have been moved to Break even- and an easy $0.40 gain would have been realized - However, as part of the learning process, One doesn't always see a move higher that continues- so locking in some gains is just prudent- The trade off-is to allow price room enough to catch those momentum surges, recognize when that move is likely extended too far-lock in the excessive gain , and look to re enter on the pullback.
on the SQQQ, a 250 share size - equates to a Risk of $25 if a $0.10 pullback occurs- It's amazing to watch how tight the price action can be- with 2-4 Cents a spread- but there are traders and ALGOs trading $Hundreds of thousand shares for partial increments of $0.01 - and doing that minute by minute.
Some of the traders are shorting the ETF- while others are trying to bet on the long side- Gaining an awareness of who is controlling the market is determining where the trend is predominately heading- These are not investors- per se- these are traders - institutional vs institutional- Algos vs algos-
Small retail traders don't count for anything-
The exercise I posted above is somewhat time consuming to do- But- necessary- In the middle of the day making a trade, one is trying to process the chart- which- btw- is lagging what is occurring- despite having 'real time' charting. If one drops down to a platform that offers 10 second charting- one is much more likely to be close to the present price action- I'm watching the bid/ask as I adjust orders- as my real time screen lags by 15-20 seconds.
The trade recap- going back- annotating the trades taken- and noting the w-c-s have entered- or sold- is part of the learning process to become that better trader- It's just a lot of d**n work ......
Being I'm a tad on the older side, I realize I am quite slow to adapt and adjust- but I'm definitely improving in my executions.
My focus is to get in on that early -lower risk entry- but I have to allow the indicators- which also lag price- to support that somewhat-
Just because price is making a base in a downtrend is not a reason to be a buyer-
However, it seems that trailing a tighter buy-stop may get that better entry -close to the point of Failure- for a potential great entry with a very tight Risk- However, I need to remind myself that one is more effective in long trades with the dominant trend of the day- and counter trend trades are already fighting against the momentum-
Also focusing on a few trades in the TQQQ today- Hadn't had time to review as I write this- but the goal of these exercises in short term day trading- is to become a more nimble and adaptable trader - if trends switch directionally - as they often do recently- and intraday-
one has to be prepared to shift with the market-
Because of the computer /SC lag - the chart is slow to demonstrate the realtime action- Reading the bid/ask for confirmation is likely learning to read the level2 . So much to learn here-
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Post by sd on Aug 25, 2024 18:47:56 GMT -5
Jason Leavitt delivers a weekly Index summary report as well as a daily summary-
"Going forward we need to trade the best setups with stops in place. Only the best setups should be considered. Despite the run off the lows, this still isn't an environment where we can be flippant with entries and lazy with trade management. Trades should have decent risk/reward. Stocks should be acting well and have reasonable odds of doing well. This isn't a time to take below-average setups with the attitude that the market will put a floor under positions and dampen losses"
"The market did well last week. The small caps ripped higher. The internals have recovered but are not overdone. If indeed prices are higher at the end of the year, the small caps will post the biggest gains. The mega caps did their job, and they'll certainly participate, but it will be the smalls, which benefit more from declining rates that will post the biggest gains.
If you have healthy long positions, keep going. If you're underexposed, it's okay. Move forward from your current state. Let's get to the charts."
If you're browsing here- give the www.leavittbrothers.com a trial-
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Post by sd on Aug 26, 2024 7:45:53 GMT -5
8.26.2024
Futures mixed
Dow up, Nas down. S&P flat.
PM- SLOW GRIND TODAY- mARKETS FAVORING THE BEARS.
SOXS PM TRADE WORKING -
AND A MINUTE AFTER RAISING THE STOP:
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Post by sd on Sept 6, 2024 5:32:48 GMT -5
9.6.2024 Very odd- the 2024 thread dropped lower in the thread listings last week, and I failed to notice-
So I've been clicking in on the 2023 thread and adding posts there-
I may copy those misplaced posts back here this weekend-
The Jobs report comes out today- folks are getting concerned that the Jobs report will confirm what many think- The FED is too late in initiating a rate cut and the momentum of the jobs will be a negative- with fewer jobs , more lay-offs- and the Recession fear vs soft landing is more probable.
The Barrons headline:
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Post by sd on Sept 6, 2024 5:35:43 GMT -5
8.28 Better trading today- Focused only on TZA,TNA -
Multiple trades made -and much tighter stops - Big difference in the price spreads on TZA AS a $14.50 stock price and the TNA above $42.00.
Waiting on NVDA to report here in the pm in a few minutes-
NVDA is expected to outperform, markets can easily sell-off-
Salesforce reported a beat but lowered the forward guidance.
CRWD also beats but sees a future impact from their botched software update.
Carrying over TZA again -overnight- full position - missed selling right at the Close.
NVDA reported beats, but did not blow out expectations- seeing some selling in the after hours- waiting for the guidance.
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Post by sd on Sept 6, 2024 5:37:25 GMT -5
8.29.2024 Futures in the Green...NVDA down slightly @ $121.00 pre mkt.
TZA carry over -in the RED. Failed to push the sell confirm at the Close in time- missed by 1 second.
Modified 1M chart- Orange line represents the 7 ema- Green line the 50 ema- black dashed line the 200 ema for dominant trend direction.
VWAP-pink line- When price is below , holders are mostly underwater- When price is above, holders are in the green
The MACD 7,16,1 ; 12,26-1 the black line 'hook' often signifies an early turn in price direction/momentum. a cross of the pink 12-26-1 line bears watching.
Histogram- the 0.0 line cross can be a signal - front running as the histogram improves towards the 0.0 line is also a consideration to get an early entry.
Price is not shown on the 1st chart- I've been using the 2 M chart , but will also start using the 1M chart alongside- the 2M-
The relatively small price moves on the TZA/soxs represent a large% as these are under $10 compared to the higher priced long SOXL, TNA. etc.
TNA
Sold TZA position for a loss -pre mkt. held overnight inadvertently- too slow on the trigger cutting it too close to the market Close At 4 pm. yesterday.
Trade 1 TNA on the reversal higher.
stop ticked up to $43.59
momo struggling
Nets + $0.86 on TNA tight trailing stops
Re entry stops out at B.E.
TNA- made 2 buys- avg $43.66 cost - stop now @ B.E.
Significant difference comparing signals on the 1 & 2 M vs the 5M
VWAP seemed to provide an area of buying interest.
adjusting stop higher with the sar.
11:36 sar $44.08 stop triggers
The prior high was resistance- $44.25 dbl top.
a new Buy stop order following price using the sar as an entry stop mmkt price order.
Flipped- whipsawed by TZA
@ 12:07- Price trending higher-
SAR stop is just above B.E.
just adjusted to $44.34 w/sar
stop is $44.39 - sar is $44.32 tight.
12.15 pm
Price is waay above Vwap-
stop triggers- New buy stp $44.51 is in place on a potential snap back up move
Markets completely rolled over at 2 pm -
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Post by sd on Sept 6, 2024 5:39:20 GMT -5
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Post by sd on Sept 6, 2024 5:40:00 GMT -5
9.3.2024 Futures all RED to start September-
EOD- Hard sell-off today-
Small TZA test position in the AM, held all day- Company today, didn't follow the markets.
Had to sell out of NVDA this am on price declining hard- Loss on the recent position.
NVDA gets a subpoena from the Justice dept...
Semis getting trashed- Tech-in general getting continued weakness.
HOLDING tza OVERNIGHT- fAMILY VISITING TODAY- SO NO other trading focus.
From Pete at the LB Board- Illustrating how the defensive sectors have turned recently and are outperforming the stall and pullback in the SPY
Worth paying attention to! Sector rotation is penalizing the Tech leadership- as a source of funds to rotate into other sectors.
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Post by sd on Sept 6, 2024 5:42:12 GMT -5
9.4.2024
Futures remain in the RED premkt, but improving from 7 am -9 am.
TZA cLOSED @ $15.26 - SHOULD OPEN HIGHER...
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Post by sd on Sept 6, 2024 5:42:55 GMT -5
9.5.2024 Thursday -Futures flattish @ 7 am - Nas slightly RED , S&P, Dow slightly green.
Jobs report Friday- MKTs believe a FED cut is inevitable coming up in September- The question is how large-
A lot of economic deterioration is occurring, as seen from ad decline in retail spending, pullbacks by the consumer , and job openings are reduced.
The hype over AI has now become a "show me" - prove there is actual value for business to make money- The scare over AI is that it will easily allow employers to cut back on employees, as fewer people will be required as AI will supposedly increase individual worker productivity.
September is traditionally a poor month for investing- Upcoming elections are undecided- and business will have to determine how the new congress and president will impact their business-
Biden plans to block Nippon Steel from Buying US STeel as a security Risk- The steel worker Union is against the merger...
China is dumping steel at low cost -
The Tariffs proposed by both Trump and The Harris side while designed to make American companies more competitive- will bring on more inflation in higher costs of goods. That's directly in conflict with the FED trying to control inflation with restrictive rate hikes and planning to ease now that inflation appears to be trending lower.
Jason Leavitt- video on August was a Terrible month-- possibly posted this previously-
www.youtube.com/watch?v=-sUIlc5D1qI
Positioned defensively SPLV, IHI but with stops-
Tom LEE suggests the next 8 weeks are likely -7-10% decline- also a buying opportunity-
www.youtube.com/watch?v=9K6vbJ9jJyY
8:45- Futures are all deeper in the red.-
Traded impulsively yesterday after making several good trades initially, and ended up in the RED trading TZA/TNA-Had winning trades to start off- but gave it back forcing trades. The post market review- really illustrates - got to go where price is trending-
Focused again on TZA/TNA- small size and focused on price action- many trades- but drifted and took a few trades in TSLL this pm -which put me in the RED -$14.00 ..
However, the small size trading was net profitable-but i made an intentional decision to trade small, use the 2M time frame- and test myself for being able to align myself with the directional changes in the market- Amazing when you start to view the 2 sides of the market gyrations-
Comparing the long and the inverse side by side is an eye opener-
Today was a day where the MM opened price and then reversed direction quickly- That fake out open undoubtedly sucks buyers in- and triggers stops on the other side- MM got to be laughing at every open-
Lots of chop and slop today - and rotations in trend direction
The sloppy volatiity in the 1st 30 minutes seemed to settle in -as it often does-Right @ 10 am...
The 2 day chart gives an indication of the prior trend -0
VWAP -on this faster time frame - is difficult to judge the merits- Overall- The up trend appears more vigorous when Price is above the Vwap.
An anchored Vwap may be the better selection for day trading---Where the starting point can be adjusted to fit swings on the price chart.
this Example is the 5 day, 5M chart - The 5 day look tells us that TZA is trending up and to the right- now above the 200 ema compared to where it was 8-29; 8-30 - Granted trends can change -and often do - look at the different opens- and how price rolls up and down most days-
9-3 was the exception in this chart- Trend opened up and trended higher all day.
Jobs report tomorrow- but payroll deata today indicated job weakness.
Time to be defensive !
IHI stops out today- SPLV is now in the red and close to the stop- Profits evaporating.
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Post by sd on Sept 6, 2024 5:51:20 GMT -5
9.6.2024 Very odd- the 2024 thread dropped lower in the thread listings last week, and I failed to notice-
So I've been clicking in on the 2023 thread and adding posts there-
I may copy those misplaced posts back here this weekend-
The Jobs report comes out today- folks are getting concerned that the Jobs report will confirm what many think- The FED is too late in initiating a rate cut and the momentum of the jobs will be a negative- with fewer jobs , more lay-offs- and the Recession fear vs soft landing is more probable.
The Barrons headline:
FUTURES- DEEP IN THE RED-
w-c-s have loaded up on UVXY yesterday!
Jason @ Leavittbrothers.com-
Last night's observation on the market conditions
"PM Observations
September 5, 2024
The market moved attempt to move up but again the gains were given back. Either overhead supply is being eaten up, potentially clearing the path for an explosive rally, or the market is just stair-stepping down and each of the bounces do nothing more than dangerously inspire hope.
The day started approx. unchanged. A push higher the first 30 minutes was sold. Then the indexes retraced their gains and went into negative territory. Flat, range-bound movement followed.
The Nasdaq and Nas 100 posted gains. The S&P 400, Russell 2000 and Dow dropped 0.5 - 0.7%, and the Russell 3000, Russell 1000, S&P 500 and S&P 100 fell 0.1 - 0.3%.
Among the groups, autos, marine transports, broadline retail and media agencies gained more than 1%. Medical supplies, trucking, full line insurance, specialized consumer services, specialty finance, industrial transports, drug retailers, railroads, business training & employment, delivery services, mortgage finance, commercial vehicles & trucks and heavy construction dropped 1.4% or more.
A few weeks ago I offered the two following scenarios going forward. Either 1) briefly rest without correcting much and then rip higher and not let sideline money be put to work at lower prices, or 2) fall all the way back down to the lows.
#1 isn't going to happen. Even without this week's weakness, the 2-week pause was too long. Timing was in play. The market needed to briefly pause and then move. This is different than a longer, more traditional consolidation period. The former is emotional; the latter is technical. A breakout could have still happened, but it would have been a different kind of breakout.
#2 is on the table, although we can't assume it has to happen because that will cause us to cling to or anchor to that outcome and not be open minded to other developments.
The S&P's low is "way down there" - 10% lower. That's a solid drop, and given the index's high, it's about 500 points. That's a lot.
Here's the S&P's 2-hour chart. The 8 has crossed below the 21, and the 50, which was taken out at the beginning of the month, is starting to roll over. The gap between the 8 and 21 presents a tough “moat” to cross. The 50 can then be stiff resistance on a bounce.
The Nas 100 is similarly positioned...or has similar challenges. It broke down from it a top and now has several layers of resistance overhead. Unless news comes out that surges the market, it'll take some time to move up again.
One hour before the market opens tomorrow, the latest employment numbers come out. Is good news bad and bad news good? The Fed is going to lower rates regardless, and in my opinion, the weekly jobless claims are more important. But Wall Street picks and chooses what it wants to obsess about, and this is kind of a big one right now.
Have a great night.
Jason Leavitt"
Today's report and market reaction - coming in a few minutes @ 8:30 -
dow -158; s&P - 31 ;Nas- 185- RED! minutes ahead of the report.
after digesting the report, futures improving- but still in the RED-
Prior recent months have been revised much lower than initially reported.
and- much improved a few minutes ahead of the Open:
TZA - working out to be trending strong after the morning chop fest.
TZA rolls and drops fast @ 11 am- all stops are taken out.
@ 11 am
Back in TZA
sIDEWAYS CONSOLIDATION- pOTENTIAL RANGES OUTLINED-
nO WHERE TO HIDE TODAY!
clf- Farmer Jim defends on CNBC- price pops up from the downtrend-
In at $11.16 - stop on entry $11.10- Risking $0.06- will raise on a sign of weakness.
Finally getting a range breakout again in TZA 12:49
CLF- 2:35- Failure to make a higher high in this sideways range-
Hard drop on the RED bar- Stop is below the 1st swing low- $11.39 - Line in the Sand.
The Risk entry stop was risking $0.05 @ $11.10 - Purely a momentum trade- CLF's has been a losing position for Farmer Jim despite his many past- and higher recommendations. Stop as I write this is raised to $11.45 on the recent attempt to re test the prior high- A failure will see price rejected lower. Holders likely bail out hard and fast.
There is a lot of potential supply at this level- due to yesterday's attempt to move higher, and this am attempt as well- Pulled buyers in and then they were 'caught'.
If they continue to SELL here to get to Break even- The selling supply could force the Price lower.
CLF stops out @ 3:30
eod: CLF wELL-EXECUTED as a Day Trade-
Entry filled $11.16 Stop triggered $11.48 Net +2.8%
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Post by sd on Sept 7, 2024 11:06:20 GMT -5
The variety of approaches found at www.Leavittbrothers.com covers a wide spectrum of different methods-
Well worth taking a trial, and- possibly also Jase's courses to better understand the TA approach .
Trader Devoid has the simplest approach- focusing on the 5M chart for day trades- and also potential entries that can turn into swing trades if enough of a profit 'pad' is achieved. His approach is what initially interested me in Day trading. He often also provides instructive teaching commentary as to the aspects of the trade. He has been using this same approach for several decades. He also uses a similar approach on a 2 Hr chart for swing trades-
This particular observation that he provides demonstrates how he puts All of the elements together before making an entry.
AND, HE ALSO VIEWS the /NQ higher time frame -1 hour as another element to judge the potential on larger time frame direction - using the futures.
Notice that he has marked up on the multi day NQ chart the various trend channels, support, and potential ranges.
So, he held off from taking an entry due to the inability of price to move up enough in this decline because the yellow 3 ema failed to make an upside cross of the declining 8 ema. This was in spite of that initially higher bar (4th bar back) that initially would have been bullishly green on the higher move-
The MACD had made an early upside cross of the 0.0 line- and that cross normally confirms the signal for a trade on the long side, along with a higher stochastic.
The MACD here is quite distant from the higher 0.0 line- and, he didn't jump in on that very tall bullish green bar @ 11 am - that initiated the hook-upturn of the MACD .
A great example of experience guiding restraint from jumping in too soon into a trade trying to guess the trend reversal.
The desire to get in 'Early' on a higher move also makes me inclined to get drawn into premature trades- Understanding that the trend direction dominates - and-until that trend direction changes, taking counter trend entries is a Riskier proposition.
This chart is the 5M TQQQ- Trend direction is clearly to the downside, with the 1st green bar on this chart occurring as the 3 upcrosses the 8 ema after price bases for almost an hour- Notice that the upmove thrust was preceded by several bars that initially pushed to a lower low.
Also- the MACD as well as the stochastic was at a divergence with the price action- all because of the very large move in the single bar at 11 am.
So, indicators react and lag price - but sometimes the divergence is well worth paying attention to - However- with the MACD so far below the 0.0 line seems to have importance as it is often referred to as a negative by several traders - A MACD cross closer to the 0.0 line is a more reliable signal such as seen at 12:55 and 2:30.
It should be easy to put this together -or so it seems....The 5M chart then followed by the faster 2M chart-
Comparing the 2M and the 5M charts- and why I am drawn to try to employ the faster 2 M chart - But that can also be a lot more whipsaws-false or failing signals- but tighter price moves-
Comparing the 5M chart- The 1st Green bar occurs as it Closes at 1:05 pm and that bar closes at $57.10. Sar is at $57.38 well above the high of that bar.
Sar issues a 'Buy' on the following bar as it moves above the trailing sar.
The 2M chart is filled with early green bars, and several whipsaw sar buy signals in the sideways range-Recognizing that SAR will give numerous whipsaws when in a sideways range is important- cannot be taken as the sole reason to enter...
Comparing the potential early entry @ 1PM - the green bar@ SAR is $57.06 - sar as a buy stop $57.08 on the 2M- Then, the Blue bar that drops thru the fast ema @ 1:26
has a low of $57.44.
The 5M chart - The green bar Closes at $57.10 and the Blue bar low is $57.31. Sar as a potential entry buy stop is significantly higher above price $57.39
The trade off is that the potential for a larger % gain on the 2M comes with both a slightly earlier entry, and a potentially higher stop-loss based on the Close of the Blue bar significantly higher on the 2M chart vs the 5M. Also- Sar as a possible stop loss was at $57.00 on the 5M and would have been taken out @ 1:45 for a net loss.
Sar on the 2M would be triggered at $57.40 for a net $0.40 gain.
That said, ideally one would be trading the inverse trade SQQQ on the long side -as the trend over the prior 2 weeks favors it.
Heading out to a birthday party this pm for our eldest Grand Daughter.
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Post by sd on Sept 8, 2024 7:57:04 GMT -5
Partial -Jason's weekend report-
check it out at www.leavittbrothers.com - Free trial available....
So far, September has lived up to its billing as the worst month of the year. The market posted a loss 4 of 4 days and showed no sign of life. The bears were in control all week. The mood has changed. If feels different.
August was a good month, but trading was a challenge. There were decent longs and shorts, which is a warning by itself, but trades that worked out did okay, not great. Stocks would move out of a range but peter out within a few days and give the gains back. Instead of rallying with energy...resting for a period...and then continuing on, stocks would move up for a few days and then give it back. And buying dips was no more fruitful. If you closed your eyes and bought the carry trade gap down, you nailed some big winners. But if you waited for proper setups - those could be stocks coming out of bases or continuation patterns within a trend - it was a challenging month. Trades lasted days, not weeks. And they only went 5-10%, not 20-30%. There was evidence the market was undergoing a change, and since we have no control over the market and instead are forced to just see the change and make adjustments, our job was to make whatever adjustments were needed, given what was playing out in front of us.
Change is constant. And it's not something to be upset about. In fact, it's something to embrace because it makes trading harder, which is what we want. If trading was easy, everyone would pursue it, and all the inefficiencies would be worked out. And no one would make money.
If the market never changed, it would be easy to model, and then the computers would control everything. A changing market, which forces traders to make adjustments, is just enough of a barrier to increase the difficulty, which keeps people out and provides opportunity for those willing to do the work and be very disciplined.
Don't resist it. Don't be mad at it or frustrated by it. It doesn't matter what field you're in; change in constant. Accounts, lawyers, doctors - they all have to incorporate new information and new ways of doing things. Programmers have to learn new languages. Even school teachers are forced to use a different curriculum every few years. In fact, if you think about it, jobs that remain the same don't pay much.
Change is good. It's just enough of a barrier to keep people out. Embrace it. Don't dig in and use yesterday's methods on a market that is acting differently. Traders get themselves in a lot of trouble when they do this.
Over the course of a year, there may be 2-3 periods lasting 2-8 weeks that are in sync with how you operate. And there'll be a few periods where you should stay on the sidelines because for your style, the market is not acting well. And the rest of the time is fine or good but not great. You can proceed while keeping in mind your expectations should be toned down.
So you may rotate from a great period to an okay period and then back to a great period, which is followed by terrible price action. If you are consistent, you lose because you'll make money during the great periods and then give it back at other times. Adjustments are needed. You can't shoot for 30% wins in two weeks when the market is only offering 8% wins in three days and then taking everything back. Traders get mad at this; they lose confidence; they wonder if they can make it. But there's nothing wrong with them. They just didn't make the slight adjustment that was needed when the market changed. Why don't they make the adjustment? I don't know. It's a great question.
A surfer doesn't ride today's wave the same as he rode last week's wave because the waves are different. That makes sense. Nobody would argue that you have to just ride the wave you're given. A baseball player doesn't swing at a curve ball the same as he swings at a fastball. A basketball team will change its offensive strategy based on who they're playing - a big team, a team that likes to run, a team that has different strengths and weaknesses at each position. This is all obvious. But when it comes to trading, the market will change and traders keep doing the same stuff. And when it doesn't work, they get mad at the market. Why? That makes no sense.
May, June and the beginning of July exhibited one market character and personality type. Things changed in August. Now they are changing again.
In May - July, a strong trend was in place. Breakouts were running 30% easily; some stocks doubled. Heck, even NVDA, which was already one of the largest publicly traded companies, nearly doubled from 75 to 140.
In August, there were longs and shorts. Trade duration was shorter and gains were smaller. Follow through didn't happen much. Something seemed off. Changes were needed relative to the previous period.
Now in September, very few longs have worked. Shorts have done better. Long-only traders could justify sitting out. Trend traders could also take a break. Things are different now. Either adjustments are made or you lose. There are no alternatives. Trade less. Trade smaller. Lower expectations. Be content with smaller wins. A host of changes are needed.
On the other side of this period will be another change. If the current environment is not ideal for you, that's fine. Wait. As already stated, in a typical year, there will be favorable periods and unfavorable periods and some gray area in the middle. Trade hard and make as much as you can when your style is in sync with the market. But you have to tone things down and not give gains back when the market changes.
Looking forward, we are likely to have continued weakness. Which is great because I'd rather start an end-of-year rally from a lower level, if we are to have an end-of-year rally.
If you haven't noticed, I have a bad habit of spinning the situation to be positive. If the market trends higher, I'm happy for the opportunities. If the market moves down, I'm happy for chance to buy quality stocks at lower prices. I accept whatever happens and make the best of it. I don't force my desires on the market, which would be as ridiculous as a surfer being mad at the ocean. Let's get to the charts.
The Indexes
The Weeklies
Jason Video-
www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q4ZZRGQIWx4
621300
Weekend Edition- Shadow Trader
www.youtube.com/watch?v=C9UWno48qyM
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Post by sd on Sept 9, 2024 7:00:17 GMT -5
Monday 9.9.2024
Futures in the Green premkt!
GEO-Reduced his # of multiple indicators- Simplified the chart- Red box trade he demonstrates at www.Leavittbrothers.com
Note thatof the 2 CCI values, the CC! 20 aligns with the stochastic- CCI 30 signals later---slower.
If this proves to be the norm on a majority of trades, why not drop the CCI that signals late?
Several small trades- essentially at B.E.
12:00 pm in TSLL - bought as I saw the upswing in the indexes and used the Higher red bar swing low as my low Risk entry stop level- just under-
With the following move up higher above the range, stop is raised to B.E.
trailing a relatively tight stop $0.03 under the 8 ema on the 3M chart.
As Price pauses here- stop will remain $9.74 - Bar is dropping thru the fast ema.
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![]() i.imgur.com/77YA70X.png
stop triggered as the TQQQ also pauses...TQQQ position still active-
re-entry TSLL -bit of a chase
Stop is now within $0.04 of my entry cost- Not giving back much on the prior gains.
mARKETS TRADING IN TANDEM TOGETHER IT SEEMS...
TQQQ PAUSING- STOP IS WIDER ON THIS + $50 POSITION- APPROX -$0.10 BELOW THE 8 EMA.
TSLL STOP IS RAISED TO B.E. Price looks weak here.
TSLL stops out
TQQQ is pausing at a slightly higher high than made early in the day-
Stop is in place to capture +$1 + on the trade if triggered.
and stop is triggered- Sar issued a sell
YUP_ timely exit!
Added back as price went higher-
held 2 positions- 2 stops $16.31; $16.29 as Price pushed over that $16.30 level-
Both stops triggered for net gains - $16.30;$16.27
Took a buy-stop in TQQQ- Fills but then fails to move higher- stops out.
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