SD - 2022 - A YEAR TO LOSE LESS AND TO KEEP MORE !

[sd]

3-7-2022-

A good day to not own us stocks - or at least the large majority as they again see a wave of selling-
Fortunately, we spent the earlier part of the day on the boat fishing on Harris lake, with a warm front pushing temps into the upper 70 degrees- but really strong winds- We didn't have any fishing success, but a day on a Lake is it's own reward- fish just a bonus... returned to find our portfolios- due to the energy/commodity focus, is moving higher-
I anticipate a sharp reversal will occur -potentially soon, so I am splitting trailing stops with one part of the position set to stop out at each day's low- and the remainder a bit slightly lower- Don't know when this will occur- but it would be Naive to assume the commodity boom doesn't take a step back on any potential good news on the war in Ukraine-

The major indexes all lost relatively large today, Except the energy/commodity arena- still trending.
War continues in Ukraine- The congress has agreed in principle to haltr importing Russian Oil, but Pres Biden will need to man up and put a stop to those imports and paying Russia for a commodity we can be self sufficient on here in the US_ Of course, he will be villified by the left wing members of his party that live on the ESG fringe and want us to be all Electric-

Market sentiment is low, and with good reason- Investors have seen large market losses, What seemed to be a promising initial start to 2022 has fizzled - Nasdaq is down in bear market territory- down -20% but that's nothing compared to the once trending ARKK funds holding the future tech disruptors- Sold @ $158.00 in Feb 2021,
and made anew lower low @ $58.00 today.

Gold making a new recent high, Crypto not becoming a flight to safety. MSTR off 60% ;GBTC -50%; ETHE-65% ;

The expectations for a better recovery in the US has declined- The recession word is coming up more often in the CNBC commentary- Severely increasing supply costs- will slow any recovery ....
Recently the steel stocks -NUE, CLF were performing well but NUE is possibly rolling over here- and CLF made a topping Doji- Similarly, SLX ETF made a higher open and a lower Close- a potentially bearish reversal indication.

The materials shortage is affecting all of the Auto makers- as well as the semi shortage-
F is making a round trip -looking to head lower closing at $15.97 off it's recent $25+ highs- and also has just dropped again this week below it's 200 ema- LOLO sold part of her position @ $22- +/- and that loooked to be the smart move-I'm recommending that she consider to sell her remaining position on any further weakness, and repurchase again back down @ $12.
The headwinds against the car mfgs is immense- commodity constraints, chip constraints, and even TSLA has the better supply chain- However, it continues to be downtrending, EMAs all inverted and declining , and potentially today's $804 close will again see a sell-off back down to the $700 level as it did Feb 24.
Airlines fell -15% today on higher fuel costs- Higher energy costs will affect all industries-

Ultimately, The Risk :Reward - buying the dips are dangerous- as the predominant trend is in a decline-
Raising cash to be able to be solvent and a buyer when the trends turn stable- may be the best approach-
If one raises cash by selling a position, and that position declines an additional 5-10,20% - One has profited by exiting the losing position.

While the van account saw a recent new paper high today-($47,256.00) it's only on paper unless I take steps to lock in the trade with a sell order- It's likely that the stop-loss to present price will see a -2% -3% range

I'll be meeting in a week with my Edelman advisor, and it will be interesting to see how much damage that ETF /rebalancing account has sustained- This period has been a perfect test of how well that strategy has been capable of repositioning through this decline.

I plan on contributing less often in this Strategies thread - Other priorities - Learning options, successfully bud grafting multiple varieties on figs-May try a Cleft graft or 2 ... getting the garden ready for Spring- and starter plants-and ideally getting to spend more time with the Family/granddaughters as the weather permits....

Same old song drumming ENERGY....ENERGY.....ENERGY.....ENERGY....
SO REPITITIVE- So Obvious- For So LONG NOW!
Will this change substantially tomorrow? Not likely ......

[sd]

Futures in the green today, and in Europe presently.
Russia's Putin warns OIL could go the $300/barrel-
Energy trades seem to be running hot- but as was pointed out today on CNBC by one commentator- The S&P is still relatively rich (high) in average valuations compared to a historic normal -and if growth indeeds slows in the US as anticipated, those higher valuations still have room to get priced lower.
That scenario appears to be a distinct possibility-
Because energy is a significant cost for the Consumer- and most industrial stocks as well- consider the recent bullish up moves in the steel stocks- CLF, NUE, will they continue to trend higher- or is the energy cost overhang -
Major oil companies are cutting their ties and halting purchase of Russian oils- BP, SHELL, stopping involvement with Russia.
Visa and Mastercard have shut down Russia operations; Other companies are closing their Russian operations- p&G will continue to do business in Russia to provide the "essentials"

Gold continues higher (Not a position- but considering it)
Energy appears to be somewhat extended Crude Oil up +2% again this am120 Million barrels this month and next month need to be released by the Gov't to avoid an economic recession- Hess spokesman.

This appears to be an impending crisis that likely cannot be avoided unless supply comes back on line.
Solar industry should also see increased demand- Off approx 40% from it's prior highs. TAN ETF...potentially moving higher....trying to reverse the downtrend
Nuclear -URA- is a potential big winner - although Europe took many of it's nuclear plants off-line- de commissioned- similarly attempting to get higher
GM tanking, F, breaking down, TSLA still in a downtrend- The long term materials shortages- battery, chips, nickel, is a weight on the EV industry presently-
Phil Lebeau- CNBC thinks TSLA is best positioned in the supply chain.
This Am _PG & E Cal power company is announcing they will work with GM to develop the capacity for the cars to hook up and power the HOME-
Will this story be enough to stem the selling ? Perhaps for a day or 2.

Goldman Sachs -analyst- Oil Inventories are extremely low- expects Price of Crude to go to $135.00, and the energy cycle is just getting started...




I think this is a long term story in Energy and commodities-
Biden admin is expected to announce a ban on all Russian energy imports this am . OIL, COAL, LNG....A relatively small 6% of our energy imports.
The question is whether Europe can afford to also cease to rely on Russia- Likely cannot do that until alternative supplies from elsewheres are available.

Futures turning slightly Red @ 9:15 am-
I'll be using freed cash to add to the commodity spaces- and will take a posion in XOM

Bought XOM $88.89- IB ; Bought TAN -Van ; Added to the PDBC -IB

Post 10 am, waiting on the President announcement- on Russia Import ban
Energy continues to perform -at least at this moment-
I'm all-in with the freed cash - that allows me to set trailing stops in place and not get a "violation" and account restriction (90 days!)-
I had a healthcare position -XLV stop out yesterday in the Van IRA - which Van allows me to use those $$$$ to make a Buy- but because the funds have not "Cleared" - I cannot set a stop un der anything I buy with uncleared funds-


Energy ripping higher- When these PRICE MOVES GO PARABOLIC- Ride the Rip until it pullsback- I'm using split trailing stops - The aggressive stop portion is moved up after each day's Close-PARTICULARLY
as long as it is a high move- When these turn lower, THE GAPS WILL FILL, PRICE WILL RETURN BACK TO TOUCH THE FAST EMA.


mID DAY- News just released that Ukraine is NOT insisting on joining NATO- that has reversed the momentum that supported the energy move higher- at least for a moment-
Tight stops are executing as prices are pulling back - 20 k - now in cash in the Van account.

TAN trade is working - also ICLN - not a position.
OIL pricing is rolling over this afternoon ! Getting stopped out on the initial stops-locking in some gains- and will be able to repurchase at lower prices
Sold the new PDBC position taken this am for a small loss in IB- PDBC position stopping out in the Van for substantial gain. I bought Tan today- and anticipate this should see support -as well as the Global ICLN - ICLN is volatile - Caveat Emptor- not a position ....

Amazing move up in the Dow +500 pts from 12pm and total sell off by 2 pm! Talk about a whipsaw!

SPY:


QQQ'S -ALL MOVING IN LOCKSTEP!



jASON lEAVITT posted a new Youtube video on how he applies the 1 hr chart with a Macd and a stochastic to help him analyze the potential trade to take a short play-

www.youtube.com/watch?v=E0xxeWiEzy4

Note that he looks for a "divergence-" between Price and the Macd histogram, followed by a stochastic cross to the downside, an attempted reaction back to the upside, that eventually breaks lower-

So, this also is instructive in recognizing when your long trade is weakening, and potentially is about to turn South

At the end of the day, Energy positions softened and the majority hit my tight -take profits - stops-
The Van IRA account - ended up the day with 21K stopped into cash (Ca ching) with the remaining exposure to stocks just $3,600. Potentially those commodity and energy funds still will recover- but todays weakening of the price action looked toppish- Sold the USO position on that afternoon weakness spike lower hitting my stop.That spike filled the Gap made in the AM.
The Van Roth stps generated 10k in cash & net gains on those positiomns with some partial stops executing- (40%)
I adjusted some remaining positions with partial sells at the open- looking for a gap higher open- and a tight stop on the balance.
In that Van Roth, I also just bought TAN - the Solar ETF- aND ADDED TO THE LNG GAS POSITION
To be a Trend Trader, the conventional wisdom is to allow your winning trades room to run- I confess, that my tight stops on the excessive momentum has today sold off the larger majority of my energy positions- Had to trim to lock in gains, still holding positions in the Roth.
the energy/commodity, plays extend - and -since energy has been the consistant outperformer week,month, year, the opportunity is to find ways to add or start positions -
Fertilizer increases went from $300/ton to over $1,000 this past year- so this will affect the farming production, food prices- MOS, IPI are 2 names to watch-
Oddly enough- the Lithium metals trade-via the LIT ETF , has not gone up-but has dramatically declined!
Also the BATT ETF -also continues downtrending- At 1st glance, this doesn't make sense -as the move to EV demands Lithium and Battery production. What gives?
REMX and MP- specialty minerals suppliers- also NOT performing well- Not in an uptrend-
EV auto makers- F, GM, TSLA- supply chain shortages for everything from Batteries, Chips, steel and Aluminum.
Cost increases for these materials will raise the production and sales costs.
In the IB I took a position in XOM- major refiner recently breaking out to a new recent high Friday -
I will allow this position some leeway to slightly retrace back and retest the breakout level.
Biden's speech this am implied that our energy companies in the US have everything they need to increase production overnight- but he fails to take any responsibility for his restrictive policies that shut down a large % of the energy capacity.

[sd]

3-9-2022 2.5 hrs premarket, futures for crude are down -3% ; and index futures are all in the green significantly-
A lot can change between now and then....
late AM- Remaining partial commodity positions stopped out on a gap open lower- well below my stop-loss-
Yesterday's sells & locking in gains appears to have been the prudent call- Did add to the lng position on the late am rally higher.
Now only 7k in positions in Van, 40k+ to clear. No Rush- no FOMO.

Market rally appears to be holding midday!
Crude selling off on UAE /opec willing to increase supply - Iran in the mix as well.Crude dropped -12% today!
Glad i sold on tighter stops yesterday the majority! Recognizing that the energy and commodities were so extended and tightened those stops was the correct action- Unfortunately- as expected, I gave up 2% from the highs-Had been above 48K intraday early Tuesday- should have sold !

US Gov't indicates it is willing to consider acceptance of digital currency- ie- Bitcoin rallies!
Markets rally and hold their gains!

No free cash yet in the Van, and I simply cannot trust this volatility- to go long conventional stocks-
I have some cash freed in the IB, but not rushing to chase the wind here- It's smart to wait and see an upturn in the EMA's and to see what has
It is the FOMO that makes people jump in to think they are missing the "bottom"-
I get it, the overall statistics are compelling that we should be near the bottom- as the NAS index finally entered bear market territory- but it has come at a terrific cost for many of the underlying stocks with some 45% having declined over -50% !
Similarly harsh statistics for the S& P -with underlying losses more severe ....
Bear market Rallies are known to be sharp and quick- but they often end up going even lower- Until they don't . Such rallies should be opportunities to sell into- lock in some gains /or reduce losses-
Keeping a large % in cash is prudent- That's where i'm heading - I expect that commodities/ energy/OIl will get a reset lower- but will be an essential part of our world moving forward...

At this point, for most of us it's Clearly been about Losing Less in 2022. Short term trading is tactical - Every buy in a dip in 2022 has only led to a lower low- This certainly has been the reversal of 2020-early 2021 - and when Tech rolled over, it appeared that the damage was just to overpriced future tech stocks- until it finally caught up with an overpriced market in general.
Just as the market can go up to extremes, it can do the same on the downside- Only in hindsight will we know -"That" was the bottom.

Consider: What if this guy was right all along:And we are only part way to getting back to a 'fair' valuation

thestockbubble.com/how-much-can-you-bear/

[sd]

3-10-2022 - Early 8 am Futures are back modestly in the RED -.5%

This article attributes yesterday's move to a roll out further to later date of Options that would expire this Friday -
Today- Thursday- is the last day to do a Roll on Options-
Next Friday the Monthly Options for March expire - It's also a potentially more volatile day- Quadruple Witching

What Is Quadruple Witching?
www.yahoo.com/video/quadruple-witching-day-invest-165006961.html#:~:text=On%20June%2018%2C%202021%2C%20a,stood%20on%20June%2018%2C%202021.

Quadruple witching refers to four days during the calendar year when the contracts on four different kinds of financial assets expire. The days are the third Friday of March, June, September and December. The assets on which the contracts expire on that day are stock options, single stock futures, stock index futures and stock index options. Options contracts also expire monthly. Futures contracts expire quarterly.

Perhaps we are indeed in making a proverbial bottom- as a process....that's what draws people in ....and chops them up-
It's only in hindsight- It certainly "FEELS" like we've gone down too far , too long. But that's also how investors felt in every significant pullback-
I'll be watching the energy/commodity/AG/fertilizer sectors for continued upmoves- and also potentially Nuclear - URA -CCJ both moving higher yesterday.


Reflecting on the application of moving up stops using the faster time frame charts this week- recognizing that the velocity of the up move was unsustainable- thgat captured a good % of the profits -that were only paper profits until they are actually sold-

Using COMT as the illustration- The Daily Chart illustrates the velocity of the momentum in COMT as it broke up higher
in March-Compare the relatively calm price action with the daily bars normally small and hugging the emas in the prior months - The big swings in price, combined with the distance away from the fast upturned ema- just begs for a snap back -reversion to the mean. Initially I was trailing stops daily on the low of each day's Close- and then got tighter using the 2 hr chart to lock in profits with split stops- some getting hit Thursday afternoon on the spike down intraday.



The 2 hr chart with a fast ema provided a Closer view - tight stops adjusted along the rising ema & fast psar provided a
larger net capture of gains before stopping out than a stop using the daily chart.


UGLY OPEN- LOADS OF RED!

i OPENED SOME NEW STARTING POSITIONS TODAY- iN THE LAST 30 MINUTES OF THE DAY, i ENTERED BACK INTO THE ENERGY AND COMMODITY PLAYS - WITH JUST SMALL POSITIONS - I plan to add into these same positions with size if we see an additional decline Friday-

The fertilizer names- MOS, CF, IPI are all extended, but worth watching for an entry.
I also will plan to overweight the Agricultural industry- DBA- and the commodity funds PDBC; COMT


Sometimes I think logic suggests I should be positioned in one area over another- But perhaps the sizzle has already gone out of that steak-
How quickly the Buzz around Ford and GM challenging TSLA has lost it's lustre! and even though TSLA is indeed in a leadership position in the EV space, it's back below it's 200 ema and the trend of the 50 ema is in decline.
The Auto dealers are going to find not only chips in short supply but also the increases in material costs and material shortages-After all- THE EV space was all the Rage - but look at this chart from just the decline this year! 48 days- and those positions deeper in the RED.



Battery materials- nickel, Lithium are in very high demand and short supply- but oddly enough the LIT ETF is not trending higher, but is in a significant downtrend 10% below it's 200 ema!
The rare earth materials companies - should be making a killing -one would think -Yes?
MP,AMRK, AND REMX COME TO MIND - amrk looks to be holding up better than the other 2 - but what is going on ?
Fast Money- Tim picked AMRK as his trade pick- aS THE CHART SHOWS- AMRK is the single outperformer in the group, having positive upside in 2020.


Semi conductors are in short supply and High demand- BUT, What is going on with their charts?
iF THEY ARE IN DEMAND, WHY ARE THEIR PRICES NOT GOING HIGHER? Perhaps it's the issue of the same supply constraints that are affecting the EV markets. The chip mfgs cannot get enough supply to meet demand- and the car mfgs cannot get enough materials to complete a finished vehicle to sell to John Q Buyer. When they do, the price hikes will be substantial-

The price chart going back to Jan of 2021 shows the big surge semis had heading towards 2022-
Obviously, NVDA (green Line) was the semi leader- followed by MRVL, and ALL losing in 2022- Giving back a substantial % of the higher moves- 2 charts- the longer term, and a shorter term for just 2022 performance-



2022: Note that the Semi index -SMH is the red line - Down about -19% YTD
Out of this group, most semis declined right out of the gate- TSM interestingly surged higher, but then fell with the rest of the index.
Listening to CNBC analysts tonight- They expect a demand shortage in semis through all of 2022 and into 2023-
not included in these charts is the new -us BASED GFS OR INTC- GFS is a new US based Chip mfg facility-
One thing we have failed to learn over the decades- going back to the Arab Oil embargo in the mid 1980's-
If we are not self reliant, we are at the mercy of other nations desires.
Because we have outsourced so much of our reliance on technology and resourcs to countries willing to produce for so much less cost (LaBOR EXPENSE) than we can produce within our own country, we have given up our ability to compete based on the economics of the end consumer.

[sd]

Premarket futures up Large in the Green -reportedly on (positive) comments by PUTIN concerning the War....
Energy & commodity prices will pullback on any positive news- but that will likely just be an opportunity to enter positions at lower prices for the longer term-
You cannot believe Russia's news releases- Just consider they can be using "positive" releases as ways that Russia can use to strengthen their position in the war, the world perception?

IF Peace should come to Ukraine - potentially that means the Country returns to a semblance of "Normal" and production of crops and goods/fertilizer,minerals exports will be more available for the global economy.

Anthony Scaramuchi - on CNBC- believes the Putin will be removed from office within a year- that he will try to negotiate a settlement with Ukraine that gives him amnesty from being prosecuted as a war criminal-intentional bombings/shellings of residential populations-

Should the news in the days ahead continue to be positive- expect a relief rally-
Ultimately, our economy will continue to see a Fed tightening, rates higher, and inflation persistent for quite some time.

viewing -Tom Sosnoff - Options-
www.tastytrade.com/ Live conversation- Taking and adjusting Options trades from viewers-

$vix below 30! Nasdaq rolls into the red 10:15 am...,.,.

Look at this Dive in the Russia ETF -until the exchange halted all trading last week.



End of a down & Lower week- Dow -2%, S&P -2.5% Nas -3.5% - all with periods of pops higher,

Guess what was the Leading sector for the week? or at least the sector that Lost the least?

[sd]

End of Week Summary-
A lot of volatility! Tight stops took out the majority of my positions this week, managing to lock in some profits and capture some small gains over the prior week - I went back into a few small positions Thursday- Tan, ENPH, XOM, and starting poisitions back in the commodity/energy funds as they had puilled back a lot - but only small positions as i anticipate they could likely retrace a bit deeper-
But the commodity and Energy plays likely will be continuing to be coming in higher in the months ahead.

The persistent net decline lower for the indexes is taking it's toll on everyone's IRAs and affecting the market sentiment- Combined with high inflation for the consumer at the gas pumps, grocery store, and in the goods they purchase; Along with an incomprehensible war promoted by Russia, and a lack of strong support for the attempts by the President/Dem party , People are weary of 2 years of Covid, wanted nothing but to get back some normalcy- but that is fragmented at best.

I think e/veryone is reluctantly aware that things have structurally changed- With a lower forecast for US /*///Productivity, US stocks are STILL priced at valuations above the normal historical average. Obviously many stocks *are down large- Many had surged as we entered 2022, but it's been downhill for most since then- unless you were holding energy, commodity, that bucked the declines. Human nature tries to draw us in as we see these quick snap back rallies- but they should only be traded as Bull traps-quick trades- but one day moves just provide whipsaws. until proven otherwise- by a true rally that gets us back well above the decling 50 ema in the indexes. That would be a big % up move off these lows.

I'm of the opinion that the downside RISK- in view of the overall economic uncertainity - is likely not worth the effort ....Potentially, Cash is a better position

The instability of the War - today's initial Rally attempt was based on "News" that Putin reportedly said progress was being made in talks with UKRAINE- but instead, the Day turned into a wider offensive by Russia.

WHEN this war actually comes to a halt- the markets will Rally- and likely Hard to the upside- But there is no guarantee as to when that will occur. Also- the largest variable in the war is PUTIN. Cannot be trusted, and could potentially be unstable and willing to expand the war from conventional weaponry to weapons of mass destruction- and, he ultimately holds the threat of a nuclear attack -should he be cornered. That is inconceivable to rational thinking- but clearly Putin manages to rationalize any strategy to get to take over Ukraine.
The atrocity of the war - the inhumanity -that is occurring just because of one Despot's desire for greatness-is difficult to think can occur in this day and age- It shows just how easily fractured is the Facade of a Global World we live in ....

[sd]

End of WEEK Summary:
Let me try that again- Difficult to not be affected by the news reports this pm.

End of 3-11-2022 WEEK Tally: $62,559.00 combined accts. less than last week! A
Van IRA $24,572.00
Van Roth $22,153.00
IB $15,834.00

From the prior week:3-4-2022:

Van Total - $46,757.00
IRA $24,372.00
Roth $22,384.00
IB $16,178.00

Combined $62,935.00

Compared to the start of 2022 $61,721.00 - .
So, this week - 3-11-2022 $62,559.00 a net gain of $838.00 (WOW!) or 1.36% (I could make that at McDonalds in a week with a part time job!)

On the other hand- The diversified portfolio using the 3 major indexes starting jan 2022- present.
The Indexes relative performances:
DIA- 364.07 - - 330.02 = -34.05 = -9.35 %
SPY 476.30 - 420.07 = -420.07 = - 13.39%
$COMPQ 15,732.50 -12,843.0 0-28,895 = - 18.36
tOTAL = -41.1 /3 = = AVG loss -13.7%

Last week's relative outperformance as compared to the indexes was + 12.64% -

This week's relative performance difference is 13.7 + 1.36% = + 15.3%
Last week was +12.64% - so it suggests that the indexes have lost more % wise than i have in the portfolio management.

Essentially this margin increased from last week because i "lost less" than the Indexes lost. Not because i gained more from the prior week-
Essentially, although small, my net loss reflects a losing position in ENPH, in the IB acct and a loss in the Roth based on new positions taken late this week.

As the Title of this thread for 2022- reflected- one of the trading goals was to "Lose Less" and, to a certain extent, that seems to be accurate, at least up to date- What is lacking is the "Gain More' aspect- I would suggest that a 0 RISK -(CASH) position would be the ideal position compared to engaging as i have done- These 12 or so weeks in 2022.

Presently,this week, I now have a relatively smaller % invested, and a much larger cash% position.
Van NOW has 32.5K in cash= approx 70% IN CASH.
ib HAS 6.5 K INVESTED - (xom, enph) AND 9.4K IN CASH OR 70% IN CASH.

tHIS IS A LARGE % IN CASH- TACTICAL STOPS THIS WEEK

[sd]

David Keller- "The Final Bar" www.youtube.com/watch?v=XNyjSfIL6yY&list=PLyNJu-3PikrS8Qs5_LwIK4LOpkDp8z-uO
Waiting for the 3-11 -22 Final Bar .
Expect further downside-....
While Friday started out bullisly higher on "News", that fallacy quickly evaporated- Look to the lower bars to the Left-
It will not take much to push down through those lows.

[sd]

Off Topic- Nothing to do with stocks in this post-.

Saturday-Time in the Garden .
Gardening is one of our past time pursuits-
Essential for one's mental health- particularly post Covid- Do something- Go out, Enjoy! Too much time spent in relative isolation - Go get your vax's and return to living something that resembles "Normal" !!!
Don't sweat the market- it is doing what it does periodically- and will eventually recover-
The War in Ukraine- is brutal aggression- Support those that are trying to defend their homeland from invasion-
But then -Make time and go do something else for your own sanity. Something "normal", something you enjoy.......Something your family or loved one will appreciate!

For the LOLO and I , it is Fishing and our little homestead and gardening and our extended Family that gives us structure -

And, since we have our quiet little NC Acre relatively isolated , with no pesky neighbors or subdivision restrictions, we can essentially do as we choose- and we like it this way! No neighbors to feel offended by my projects... And no subdivision authority to tell me what colors i can paint my house and what plants are acceptable! I can only imagine......

Good to mix up the personal interests, and gardening is getting close to being front and center/ as Spring is getting Close.
Had heavy rains roll through overnight and cleared this am followed by a cold front rolling in - Weather here is kind of like the market- all over the place day to day. Unfortunately, the run of unseasonally warm weather has brought out the buds and flowers on the fruit trees. Temps down to 20 tonight will take care of those!

[sd]

3-14-2022
Busy day taking care of personal stuff- Met with our Edelman financial adviser this am, and a Doctor appointment this pm - and just enough time between the two to get a sandwich and soup for 2 @ Panera Bread for $33.00- See what happens when you don't get out much!
As anticipated, the Edelman accounts are down -10% , holding 70% in stocks- Any bond components are also diving...
And did get a new Crappie pole- 12' with a baitcasting reel- that I have to take back and get the open face- so much easier to use!

No trades and no market views- only to see Red across the indexes- We're still overpriced based on historical valuations- and the markets seem to want to drive valuations lower. Growth is now expected to be slower, -ongoing inflation, rising Fed rates,still supply constraints-



Interesting, the sector shift sold off energy again today- and I'm taking some pain by holding several energy positions-
The sector performance model has disp-laced Energy from the weekly and monthly out performance with financials on the weekly and Utilities on the 1 month ----
Monthly expirations Friday-

[sd]

3-15-2022 Markets all in the green indicating a positive open- Energy prices dropping.
I'm holding the XOM position-as well as new small starter positions in some of the commodity funds-

Paying attention in the Options room- still find I'm located on the 1st bend in the Learning curve.....

Long Jets this am on the bullish open higher.

[sd]

Futures are in the green for /DAY2 - poetential rally move with some follow through-
Added a few positions- Tech JOET- Added to the Jets position on the upmove today, Added to ENPH -dangerous move as it is lowering my cost basis by adding to a net losing position.
In this market, taking smaller entry size thinking that it's likely to see moere volatility- to the downside-
Could we go down another -10% Certainly is likely-
Will commodities- Gas, metals, Agriculture/fertilizer stocks and such that ripped in prior weeks retrace even lower, but be a good investment in 2022 as increased demand and higher prices are likely?
Got to be willing to sell once they break the trend is the overall lesson- Applying "Logic" contrary to what the chart tells me....ugly....

I find like a lot of folks, this market's ups and downs is just wearing one out....Cannot capture a decent trend- trend is persistent in a lot of the indexes to the downside-
Sector raLLIES roll over as the market shifts from one side this week, one fear the next-
Look at the quick sell-off in IPI- Fertilizer sell- That's a large drop in just a few days!


Fed raised 25 bpts - with a hawkish view moving forward- The overhang on this is that higher rates are designed to help control inflation, by making the cost of money more expensive, thus slowing demand.
Market still continued to Close Bullishly-
Zelinski made a compelling address to the US congress , and Biden will be sending more aid/arms etc.

I took smallpositions in FB, AAPL, and GOOG on today's bullish price action continuing. I added to the Jets position, and that continued to go a bit higher-
I'm actually bearish, but this feels like we are rallying on an oversold basis, and that potentially offers some opportunity in the near term- Perhaps just this week-
I think I'm getting ready to put other priorities on the front burner; and not try to trade in the Chop that we likely will be facing this year- The Risk/Reward for the amount of Time one can expend- and i'm getting those many small cuts just trying to stay above water.
Conversely, I'm making some buys - for example- AAPL, FB, GOOG today- that will be companies that will be here tomorrow. All 3 presently are well below their prior highs, and bouncing off the recent lows.
FB has finally made a bullish upside move-a 1st green Elder bar today- along with a 1st PSAR 02 buy. Of course, the primary trend on all 3 of these positions is one in a decline.
So, I took relatively small positions in FB, AAPL @ $1k and just 1 GOOG. In terms of Tech/momentum- I'm giving Joe Terranova's ETF JOET another shot...supposed to be focused on Quality/Momentum...

Ideally , these will see aq bit more of a continuance in the rally, and be able to be held at a net gain- But if not- How much further would these go to the downside/ Could i hold for a -5%, -10%, -20% further decline? If i don't need to access these funds or their holdings over the next 1,2, 5 years, will they still be market leaders over that time frame? Potentially, that is the criteria if you have a long enough window- eventually the market rewards your staying the course....

After Monday's meeting with our Edelman rep- Both the Lolo and I expected that the accounts would indeed be down - and they were- 10% in the IRA and a bit more in the more aggressive Roth accounts-
however, these are longer term accounts that- as long as our health holds, we don't expect to have to use these to live on- at least not in the next few years... I have to start taking RMDs this year, and that will
be the IRS getting their cut - Fortunately, we don't have to take additional withdrawals from these accounts as they decline in order to maintain our relatively modest standard of living. That is a major criteria
in deciding whether one can stay the course in a market in a downtrend- stay invested - or bail - Most historical declines are relatively short periods-6 mos- 2 years ; but how long will this one be?
\

[sd]

3-17-2022
Futures a bit in the RED to start the Open-

Several pundits declaring we've seen the "bottom" in the short term for the Nasdaq-
Gundlach thinks Nasdaq is still potentially over priced for the rest of the year-
He thinks the emerging mkts- are exceptionally cheap relatively-
EMXC- Emerging mkts without China?



End of day, Energy rebounds higher- Indexes all finish in the Green! Account is seeing a bit of a recovery-
I should have added more back into the energy /commodity positions yesterday- Didn't spend much time on viewing the market action today-

[sd]

FRIDAY! 3-18-2022

Futures in the RED this Triple Witching Friday- but it's 6 am as i write this- so anything can occur- cannot trust the Futures ! A lot of Monthly Options expiring today!
www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-17/stock-traders-brace-for-a-3-5-trillion-triple-witching-event?srnd=premium


The LOLO bought LLY earlier this week and it made a nice breakout move yesterday Closing solidly above the recent high $285.00-
Similarly, I had bought a small position in the healthcare sector last week -XLV, and it Closed up higher yesterday- That should be indicative of a lot of healthcare stocks moving up - I will be adding to that position today.
PYPL and SQ- fintech stocks- I may take a small Buy in PYPL today. It has been severely sold off, and -after making a lower base -Closed avbove $112- I think it potentially retests and could technically try to fill that gap up to $150
Still holding what are now just starter positions in Energy and the commodity- plays- They jumped higher yesterday-and I was preoccupied- I had thought they would go lower, and I would add to the positions - yet they popped 5+6% higher... I did not think they would move up WITH the markets- That's a good sign overall though, and seems to be a definite change in the market character!
A number of pundits I hear- Gundlach for one- still think we are likely just getting a bear market bounce, and that stocks will retest the prior lows- and go lower potentially . Others are more optimistic. Market action is bullish for the time being!
However, Global events- ALA the Ukraine war and a Russia expansion would severely derail the Hope for Global growth-
Commodities would surge higher in the disruption- and Energy would continue to be the highest performing sector in 2022

That would seem to suggest a bottom is indeed in place- at least for the time being- And the markets didn't sell-off on the Hawkish Fed talk this week!
I had added small starting positions in FB, AAPL, GOOG Wed- and they had some follow through yesterday- I'm diversifying the portfolio- and actually considering to take more of the investor approach for a while- I'm not as focused on trading recently- although I do spend a few hours on the Options site- but my greater focus with the warmer weather here- is to turn more of my time to other things that we enjoy- Gardening and Fishing are the priorities- along with getting to visit with our children and grandchildren. I plan to view a few hours of the market in the A.M. and then move on to other pursuits for the remainder of the day- This Monday we will be on the Lake looking for spring Crappie!

Going OFF TOPIC:

In the Garden:
I'm experimenting with Grafting on some of the Fig trees- They are just starting to have the sap rising, and will be breaking buds soon-
Too early yet because we will always get an early spring warmth, trees bud out, open, and then we get another cold drop - For us, it's Mid April as the last frost date-typically.
I tried grafting last year- with no success- but I'm starting earlier this year, and have watched a number of youtube videos-
The goal of grafting is to take buds or cut sections from different varieties, and bond them onto a single plant- with the end result you will have 1 plant that potentially produces 4,5,6 different colors and varieties of Figs- I saw one video where they had 10 different varieties grafted onto a single fig plant- ideal for a limited space -
I'm experimenting by also putting buds and Cleft grafts on the sucker shoots the figs put out last year -coming out from the base of the Fig-
I'm air-layering the bottom portion of the sucker shoots just above ground level- Simple process with figs- You "wound" the shoot - cut into the bark in sections of the shoot near the base, exposing some of the bare wood underneath- Then you take some dampened peat moss, wrap it around the shoot and the wounded area, wrap it up in plastic and cover with foil- (to keep the sun from overheating the plastic) You could rub some rooting hormone on the cuts- to expedite the root development- The plant sends hormones the "heal" the wound, which then develops roots- In 2-3 months, You can cut the shoot off and plant a fully mature rooted plant that will also produce some fruit that same year. This process can be done on other plants as well- Easy way to propogate new plants from your existing ones.


Good explanatory video of different grafting techniques:
www.youtube.com/watch?v=4p_DKv9lM2A
www.youtube.com/watch?v=lOv0iQ6t5kA

Very
long video -more details - but -like me- long winded to eventually get to the point... about the many benefits of grafting-onto different rootstocks:But Charles takes his sweet time.....
www.youtube.com/watch?v=abAy78LTW6I

[sd]

3-18-2022
Started a small PYPL position at the open $111.63
Started LRCX at the OPEN $528.50 Chip Eq. MFG....Will see how the 10 am turn goes....

Added to existing JETS, new position ABNB - both are expected recovery plays. Waited until 10 am to make that call-
Adding QQQ's -showing strength this am-
Added a couple of shares TSLA -small position -but showing strength today.
Increased the PYPL position 10:15 am
Adding on RISK trades as the Q's are showing some strength