SD-2020 TRADING WITH THE TIDE

[sd]

12-27
aDJUSTING STOPS - Balancing act - at times to retain profits but to also allow a bit of wiggle room for price to pause and make a base.
In the ROTH account, I've held a position in ARKQ for 5 weeks, and trailed stops- using the psar as a guide- but I haven't followed psar to the letter-- As the trade progressed into profitability, I've held back 1 or 2 psar values, and gradually widened the stop, and then shifted to the very slow psar (pink dots) - but then use the pullback lows as a level to stop just below.
With the recent price breakout, I added to the ARKQ position very late - last week- and so that position is extended on the entry, and the stop is below the level of the breakout.(72 stop breakout $73) Conversely, The original Roth partial position is following the new widest psar value- with a stop 50 @ $73 and 100 @ $70 well below psar values, and right at the low of the recent base.
The goal -as long as price behaves-is to stay with the larger move higher- with a position- but my expectation (bias) is that we may see a fair amount of profit taking and tax-loss selling into this last week of 2020-
Comparing this trade to the Landry methodology- I did not take a quick and early profit on part of the position. Price also did not give a big gap away from the trend line- but stayed steady.
Being critical of my most recent add in the IRA @ $77.39- the ideal time to have made an entry would have been at the breakout @ $73- I know I was waiting for cash to clear the 3 day- but that would have been the ideal breakout level to enter above. Now, I have to give that trade a wide-172- stop-loss and assume the trend will go higher-
Despite waiting to take the trade- the decision to add to the ARKQ position reflects my belief that Robotics and automation will be an ongoing theme of the next decade-or two- but we may be temporarily in a period of excessive enthusiasm- or "overvalued"- thus the need for stops-

i.imgur.com/PYaHjN3.png

[sd]

12-28
Stimulus bill passed- Market futures all in the Green- Christmas rally continues!
Reviewing stops this am- expect that the majority of stocks should benefit from the news-
I'm going to shift some stops to hold split positions- a tighter profit taking stop, and a wider stop-loss
On those positions that I have substantial profits in, I'll likely use a 1/3 tight, 2/3 trailing -
potentially on new entries- 50-50 stops once price has moved into profitability.

Example- CRSP - a biotech held by Ark I took a small spec 10 share position-@ $110 as it based in Nov just prior to it breaking out -
It trended for 1 week, based for 2 weeks, and made another leg higher last week- As it based, even slow psar caught up with price and reverted to a psar above the range-sell - I held my stop $139 below the psar, and below the low of the pullback bar- with the higher move 12-21, the stop could be raised to $145- still allowing price room for volatility- As part of the desire to hold a longer trending position, I will split the stop- holding a portion @ $139 , and trail part at a stop closer 145 today

i.imgur.com/k6fA1ur.png
Note that CRSP is held in my IB trading account-Presently the best example I have of applying tight stops on weakness or price pullbacks-
That approach has worked well for me this year- as of today up 98% YTD. using profits as a measure of the evolution of this type of tactical
investing/trading.
Earlier in the year, I would have Sold/stopped out typically when price stalled and price bars dropped below the fast ema-
This chart is also a "faster" chart because it is a 4 hr chart- 2 bars per day- so this fast 5 ema would likely be a 3-4 ema on a daily chart.
I'm also following price with a more typical Daily chart.
I made some changes in the application of the daily chart-by eliminating the fast 5 ema from this chart, and using the 10 ema and 21 ema, 50 ema, I am attempting to support holding a winning trade with a wider perspective- ideally to encourage me to hold those winning positions with a bit of a wider stop and realizing the benefit of giving price a reasonable amount of room to base, and then continue the uptrend.

i.imgur.com/0AjWg2U.png

SA article on ARKG- illustrating the biotech disruptive space-including the CRSPR technologies
Article points out that the fund has had a considerable run up in price-and valuation. Appropriate to employ stops

seekingalpha.com/article/4396366-invest-in-genomics-revolution-arkg-etf?utm_medium=email&utm_source=seeking_alpha&mail_subject=investment-strategy-for-2021&utm_campaign=nl-etf-daily&utm_content=link-2

[sd]

12-28 charts updating...
Sold AAWW at the Open- This was an entry 12-15 on an airline that was in the news that was transporting some of the vaccine-
I expected it would have had an upside move - and it has not complied- so I sold and will look to invest elsewheres.

i.imgur.com/VDKoHJX.png
I had bought AAPL in the trading account last week- and it gapped higher today- I added it into the Van IRA today on the upside momentum
-25 @ $135.11 Premise is that AAPL will continue to trend higher with the market trending-

i.imgur.com/UZHkWzR.png

ARKW not participating this am- red bar on the fast ema- will it retest the recent gap? Will stops get hit?

i.imgur.com/wkqRHI8.png

[sd]

12-28
Cathy wood investor newsletter highlights some of their positions that have moved at least 15%.
I'm going to chart these momentum movers, and possibly make a small investment in some of them-

AquaBounty Technologies (AQB)
icon-rise-1
15%

AquaBounty Technologies (AQB), a company applying modern genetics to advance aquaculture production sustainably, closed up 15% on Monday after significant insider buying. Investors also may be anticipating an update on AquaBounty’s farm expansion.

Castle Biosciences (CSTL)
icon-rise-1
15%

Castle Biosciences (CSTL), a molecular prognostics company using genomic information to improve decision-making in and around skin cancer, traded up 15% on Monday after it digested a $267 million secondary equity offering. Based on an appreciation of Castle's pipeline and its track record of commercial execution, investor demand seems to have outpaced supply for the up-sized offering.

Nano Dimension (NNDM)
icon-rise-1
17%

Nano Dimension (NNDM) was up more than 17% on Monday after digesting a $180 million equity secondary on December 18. Nano Dimension 3D prints multi-layer printed circuit boards (PCBs) and other digital devices. Its technology should enable new form factors not possible previously with traditional PCBs.

Beam Therapeutics (BEAM)
icon-rise-1
23%

Beam Therapeutics (BEAM), a base gene-editing company, closed up 23% on Monday on a positive day for CRISPR based stocks. ARK believes that Beam Therapeutics' recent outperformance is in response to the increasing perception that gene editing therapies could cure disease, and that base editing could be the next generation benefiting from few if any off-target edits.

Editas Medicine (EDIT)
icon-rise-1
29%

Editas Medicine (EDIT), a gene-editing company harnessing CRISPR Cas9 and Cas12a, traded up 29% on Monday on a positive day for CRISPR-based stocks as investors believe increasingly that gene-editing therapies could cure disease. Editas recently filed an Investigational New Drug (IND) application with the FDA for EDIT-301, a treatment for sickle cell disease, after presenting encouraging pre-clinical data at a recent American Society of Hematology (ASH) conference.

Organovo (ONVO)
icon-rise-1
26%

Organovo (ONVO), a biotechnology company focused on 3D-bioprinting, traded up nearly 31% on Monday and 26% on Tuesday possibly because investors and speculators are gaining confidence in its ability under new management to deliver on a revitalized commercial strategy.

Codexis (CDXS)
icon-rise-1
16%

Codexis (CDXS), a protein engineering company that created CodeEvolver, a proprietary platform to discover and develop next generation therapeutics, closed up 16% on Tuesday. We believe investor interest in discovery platforms is increasing now that neural network-based algorithms like Deep Mind's AlphaFold are predicting protein functions, potentially lowering the cost of pre-clinical trials dramatically.

Pacific Biosciences of California (PACB)
icon-rise-1
17%

Pacific Biosciences of California (PACB), a leading provider of highly accurate, long-read sequencing instruments, closed up nearly 17% on Tuesday, perhaps because investors are beginning to appreciate the superiority of accurate, long-read sequencing across a large and growing number of clinical applications. With significant new capital and a laser-focused management team, PacBio is likely to increase the throughput on its platform, decrease sequencing costs, and streamline front-end sample preparation. In our view, these improvements will enable rapid clinical adoption across areas such as carrier screening, whole-genome sequencing to diagnose rare diseases, pediatric oncology, neurology, somatic tumor profiling, RNA fusion detection, and hereditary genetic testing. We believe that while the majority of the next-generation sequencing (NGS) market, especially for liquid biopsies, will remain on short-read platforms, the growth in long-read sequencing should be much higher than that for short-read sequencing during the next five years.

Materialise (MTLS)
icon-rise-1
19%

Materialise (MTLS) was up 19% on Tuesday after Zacks Investment Research upgraded it from a sell to a hold. Materialise provides additive manufacturing software and 3D printing services including arguably the most commonly used build-processor in the 3D printing industry.

Silvergate Capital (SI)
icon-rise-1
20%

Silvergate Capital (SI) traded up more than 20% on Tuesday in line with the continued appreciation in bitcoin’s price. Silvergate, a leading provider of crypto banking services, operates the Silvergate Exchange Network (SEN).

Longview (LGVW)
icon-rise-1
16%

Longview (LGVW), a special purpose acquisition company (SPAC), surged 15% on Tuesday and nearly 16% on Wednesday. Longview recently announced the acquisition of Butterfly Network, a private-stage med-tech company revolutionizing point-of-care ultrasound.

JD Health (6618 HK)
icon-rise-1
15%

JD Health (6618 HK), a healthcare e-commerce and digital health platform in China, sold off 15% on Wednesday, reversing its strong post-IPO performance. JD Health exercised its greenshoe option on December 23. Other than a response to its near 100% surge in the aftermath of its IPO, we saw no other major news to cause the selloff.

Evogene (EVGN)
icon-rise-1
28%

Evogene (EVGN), an Israeli computational biology stock, traded up 28% on Wednesday after announcing that Canonic, one of its four subsidiaries, signed its first cultivation agreement with Telcann for the commercialization of medical cannabis in 2022.

For Speculation & testing the charts-some small positions to see how they perform.

ILMN- Taking a small entry 5 shares on the higher move today $370.82 stop $360.00
i.imgur.com/3iECmt3.png

BEAM - 10 shares $94.88 up move
i.imgur.com/3LSzhan.png

EVGN 100 shares @ $5.10 higher % Risk-so a smaller position
i.imgur.com/JANq9Kv.png


CSTL 10 Shares @ $73.58 text book entry on a pullback above the ema, and a higher move to enter on.

i.imgur.com/2z16a8w.png

CDXS 35 shares @ $22.96

i.imgur.com/ZPeIWlA.png

EDIT 10 @ $90.32

i.imgur.com/EGDEceh.png


Cannot help but notice today that the indexes are all higher, yet the ARK funds are mostly lower -except ARKG up 1%

[sd]

Although the markets closed up on the day, Sell volume exceeded Buying Indexes were all up 3/4% - yet I've accumulated a lot of Red in the tech positions- all ARK funds down today- -with one position in ARKW stopping out- I will be adjusting stops this pm to try to allow some wiggle room, but to also lock in some profits-As people rebalance their holdings, big tech winners may be reduced and allocated to fund other investments. This is just a reality of the outperformance some funds have delivered this year.
Consider the outperformance in this PERF chart of all the ARK funds vs SPY and QQQ in 2020, and particularly following March.
Stop-losses are appropriate to protect profits, and the assumption is on a trend break, these can be repurchased at a potential discount to today's prices.
i.imgur.com/zR4fj2o.png

As I view the ARKG Chart- Notice the big upsurge in price momentum in December- well beyond the "norm" uptrend slope-
This can also be seen in the very wide gap between the 50 ema and the blue 10 ema. Is it possible this is just a new higher momentum uptrend forming? Possibly, but the greater the pull away from the slower 50 ema- the tighter the rubber band stretches.
I'm viewing the prior week's base low $93.00 as the widest stop-loss for part of the position. A retracement to the 50 ema would see price return to the low 80's.

i.imgur.com/4LFVCVh.png

tHE Fast 4 HR illustrates price breaking out of the mid Dec base to a new $107 high. This was also an increase in the upwards momentum seen on the daily chart . The premise of an uptrend is a series of higher highs and higher lows. HL The recent base HL
was at $93.00 +/- - and if the uptrend is to continue, any pullback should not swing down to that Base Low- Buyers should step in before that is reached, unless there are more people willing to Sell at these higher levels than there are people willing to Buy.
Assuming that a wide stop-loss below the present price should be the support level of the prior Base- A stop @ $92.00 is $1 below the base lows- it is also $15 below the recent highs-
I will split my stops on this position -$98 -just below the fast psar, and $92 for the remainder

i.imgur.com/iXbbsCk.png

[sd]

12-29
Futures up again premarket-
Heard this AM that Kathy Woods retains the leadership /majority status of the ARK funds after another partner company was vying for majority.
Also ARK funds outstanding success has now brought billions of dollars into those funds- so, the Law of large numbers will come into the results-
The more monies that she has to put to work- the larger the positions she takes in each of their holdings- or they expand the holdings to include other companies- perhaps less promising. It would be reasonable to assume that the outstanding gains made in 2020 may have reached an annual peak in terms of returns. I would still expect market beating returns going forward-but perhaps not 10x .
As noted yesterday, all the Ark funds were down while the indexes were higher- I believe this is due to profit taking and rebalancing going into 2021.
I'll see what occurs today, but I am splitting my positions stops- one tighter, one a bit wider- all will lock in profits if taken out.

A day of Reckoning for me!
My tightened stops saw sell-offs in the ARKG,ARKW,ARKK positions while still holding -but weak ARKQ,ARKF.
My small Spec buys all sold off this am - for losses across the board on what was purely a bet on momentum still favoring them to move higher-
The majority were in the biotech sector ....While it was "Fun" to speculate with small positions- they add up in the Loss category.
As ARKG sold off hard this am- it hit both my higher and lower stop losses in the first few minutes in the open.
That kept profits in the trade, but that represented a give back from the highs of -15%,
Net-Net- what counts is not your paper profits- but what part you can spend at the end of the day.
I think I've seen a net decline in the Van account of -5% over the last week-
I'm assuming that the profit taking in those momentum names that have run up so much is to give Advisors and Funds the opportunity to lock in those gains, and to rebalance at the end of this year.
I hadn't been as aggressive with my stops recently, but seeing where things stopped out - Why not stay with the tighter stop-loss ? Pocket the larger gains? In ARKG I expected the $94 stop to not have been sold this quickly-
This was the view intraday that took out the stops:
i.imgur.com/OCtEnR5.png
I've spent the remainder of the day tightening some remaining stops and reviewing the positions I am still holding- Market rally has fizzled.
Cathy woods market message:https://ark-invest.com/articles/market-commentary/investors-beware/


Heard the IBKR founder saying that his markets options went to PUT options for the 1st time recently 4:1- So that's protecting the gains.

Going into the Close- Small caps weakening - IWM position stopped out- OUSM small cap dividend weakening-
Few positions in the green today- VWO emerging mkts - Had 98 shares - added 40 @ Close on the positive upmove in the saucer- has a well defined base above $48.50 - allows me to place a reasonably tight stop-loss @ $48.00, which will be above my averaged cost $47.77.

i.imgur.com/8zfU9JS.png

The ARKF position lost ground today and yesterday- I had failed to set a stop on that position in the Van Roth-so I set a stop
this pm after the Close $48.60. Premise here assumes that profit taking/rebalancing may push this a bit lower, but I'm so accustomed to setting stops to reduce the potential further downside, that it is somewhat ingrained in me at this point. It can oblige by going back higher tomorrow-or whipsaw me out and I'll chase if needed.
i.imgur.com/8zfU9JS.png

Van accounts - Down $10k from the recent highs and at 45% in cash now. A mix of funds that are not tech focused -While that is a substantial decline, about 4.5%, it's not the paper value -highs posted that one ever expects to retain- That 4.5 or 5% "Loss" from the highs is the differential to seeing the stop-loss getting executed.
Saw that TAN stop sold, locked in some gains, IWM did not reach it's stop-193.00 but will tomorrow- Small caps have had a big run up the past few months- and may see some selling.

I need to be thinking how I want to be positioned into 2021-
I think the Theme of ESG popular - ICLN, FIW, GRID, GUNR, - positions I am still holding- will likely continue to be in high demand in the new administration. Emerging markets exposure- better valuations,

Small caps have moved large in recent months- but perhaps the shift would be to compare the small cap value 600?
Large cap position VOOG- held up today- Perhaps that theme continues in 2020... The Chart will tell.
I'm willing to add to those positions that can go higher -

[ira85]

SD you probably saw the post by John Murphy with the following headers.

RUSSELL 2000 GIVES SHORT-TERM WARNING
--
RSI WEAKENS
--
MACD LINES TURN NEGATIVE Sounds like we may have a rocky road tomorrow, 12-30. ira

[sd]

12-30
Yes Ira, I saw the post- and tightened stops on the IWM position-as well as all others-Small caps have had a big run up,
LOLO's sold off on a higher -profit take stop yesterday-I allowed my stop to trail with the slow psar value $193.00 .
I belatedly entered IWM @ entry cost @ $182- don't think I held it before then, but the trend surge in Nov was strong- iF i HAD A lower Cost of entry, I would perhaps give this stop a slight bit more room - would consider $190 as a potential support -
Presently, yesterday's price action looks bearish- although Closing $1 higher than the lows, red bars Closing below the fast ema . As part of a take-profits strategy, this requires me to tighten a stop-loss - I'll use the slower psar value to give price some small amount of wiggle room. Stoch-RSI has gone into bearish -0.2 territory, and MACD histogram is more bearish than in recent pullbacks.
Since this is a 4 hr chart, it is more "sensitive" than a daily chart .
i.imgur.com/RvyYBfk.png

I'm presently out of ARKK,ARKW,ARKG
- still holding-with stops tight -ARKQ,ARKF
I also sold off a large number of positions showing weakness- but these are trades- profit retention- or minimizing losses.

YOLO,CNBS,PRNT IN ROTHCIBR,AAWW,DKNG,SPCE,RIDE,NPA,XL,TAN,AAPL,
PRESENT POSITIONS -VWO-,VOOG,ARKQ,GRID,FIW,GUNR,RYT,ICLN,IWM,OUSM,REGL,TDV,XLB,WDIV,RPAR,CLNE,FCX,ILMN,DIS

The Wide Mix of holdings was as much an experiment as well as reducing Risk by not holding all tech - and particularly trying to hold some dividend funds for the "value" sector exposure- I did finally end up later in the year going ALL-IN, and having a stop-loss strategy allowed me to do that as my method to limit my overall Risk.

Futures are up again today
The ARK funds have a tremendously large following, and popularity with the retail believers- Which is why I think this present softness is the institutional funds selling- and rebalancing- I don't know if this selling goes beyond what has already happened, but I would anticipate that it could continue-further. also part of the market rotation- take from the Tech sector and rebalance into the lagging value and commodities sectors- Tech will still lead & outperform in 2021 I believe- but perhaps at reduced valuations from today's prices.
As we head into 2021, I'm going to give considerable thought as to how to allocate my portfolio- It will be a learning-evolutionary process for me, now that I no longer have to work a day job(Hurray!) and I plan to continue posting in 2021- and discovering what works-and what doesn't - and ideally I can realize a process that leads to a successful 2021. This year, Credit goes to to the 2020 Bull- high momentum market, and participating.

[sd]

12.30
LOAK- Spac funded company developing a type of plastic that can be eaten by bacteria- Potentially a solution to the plastic waste in our landfills and oceans. a very speculative offering...but timely in the green movement. was $24.10 premarket- As a spec momo- 40 lmt $25 if price does not open significantly higher.
i.imgur.com/w3lNMul.png
BABA- 30% decline, Beaten down by the Chinese gov't, seeing some buying off the gap down

B-200 FTIV 12.13 Fintech SPAC opened today

Ploutas article on staying Long- even if you bought the market highs in 2007 and held-

seekingalpha.com/article/4396588-investing-market-highs?utm_medium=email&utm_source=seeking_alpha&mail_subject=project-1m-2020-was-an-amazing-year&utm_campaign=nl-etf-daily&utm_content=link-1
added 40 the the remaining ARKQ position @ $76.05- Not jumping back into ARKK,ARKW or ARKG -
CRSP, DIS,fcx moving higher- will add to fcx on this breakout.
I added to both the FCX position- Copper/Gold and also using a Buy-Stop with Limit to add 100 shares to the GUNR nat resources position.
The GUNR position had stopped out for a net avg 10% gain 12-21- I reentered with a 1/2 position on the buy-stop going higher, and today placed an order for another lot with a Buy-Stop entry breaking up through $33.00.
i.imgur.com/iI5FgfG.png
FCX- I had added FCX in steps previously- stopped out and then reentered 100 on a move higher. Today I added 100 shares on the big momentum breakout today- $26.26 - which I could have had a lower entry if I had used a lower buy-stop w/limit order waiting for a break higher-
i.imgur.com/ItMOF2N.png

i.imgur.com/1gbk4hP.png
I think the nat resources, commodities are getting bid up on a recovery play in 2021-
Positions I'm holding that support the Clean Energy movement are all basing near highs- and I may add buy-stops to add into them on breakouts-as funds will allocate in 2021 to some of these ESG popular plays-
ICLN-ishares Global Clean Energy- I'm holding 401 shares with the averaged cost $22.72. Value $11,000+ so it becomes a question of How large do I want any single position to be in the Portfolio-I believe this may prove to go further in 2021 and has had large momentum in 2020- and I think that continues in 2021.
Adding 100 shares here using a Buy-Stop with a Limit- price needs to move higher than the overhead psar values and prior highs to hit the $28.75 entry stop and the max I will pay is a limit of $29.00.
i.imgur.com/AmXxz6i.png


Adding to WDIV, ARKQ,FCX- the FTIV trade is down, and cannot be accessed on the charts- (Halted?)
lOOKING TO Stay with the momentum theme- and diversifying- a bit- Using unsettled funds so stops not allowed...for several days-
2 ETFs - one passive KOMP- looking for innovation themes- passively selected- and more diverse holdings than some of the Ark funds- I will still return to hold ARK funds- but am nervous that the funds have had such a huge run up and added billions that they have to invest- it will be dilutive to the present price- I expect to see a potential larger selling of these great top performing funds - and the potential to get back in on lower prices. And yet, with all the stimulus monies coming in, the retail crowd will likely continue to push these higher-
So, the attached articles prompted me to take starting positions of 100 shares each in KOMP, and more medically focused- HTEC.
seekingalpha.com/article/4396541-komp-new-economies-passive-alternative-to-ark-etfs
etfdb.com/disruptive-technology-channel/htec-hits-100-adding-annual-gain/
Tom Lydon of ETFDB.com likes the ARK funds

etfdb.com/disruptive-technology-channel/disruption-lurking-2021-ark-is-ready/

Comparing PBW and ICLN- Too much ,too far?
i.imgur.com/jtWKD8I.png

www.markethingych.com/story/here-are-the-clean-energy-etfs-and-stocks-that-are-soaring-in-2020-2020-09-29?mod=mw_quote_news
Talk about a "hot" sector that I think continues in 2021


i.imgur.com/AS04g6J.png
Performance including SPY histogram +17% YTD

i.imgur.com/B3Nfsmh.png

ADDED BACK PARTIAL arkk,arkg,arkw NEAR THE cLOSE- as Rally held.
May have to add and average back in lower from here....

i.imgur.com/A6LPGzI.png

[sd]

Summarizing the 2020 year-Interesting and profitable year- that always makes it more enjoyable LOL!
The major reason that was so is that I did not allow my BIAS and fears to get into my head- Instead, I stayed WITH the primary trend as seen on the Charts- and ignored those other fears- until they came true on the chart.
A net gain of $41,000.00- We can get by on that! Beats 1.5% in a money market account, and also surpasses the 5.5% my 'professional" manager has delivered me for 2020-in the account they manage with institutional funds and an allocation that is age appropriate. That account only had a -10% drawdown in one IRA account as the Feb March sell-off- but I also only had a -10% drawdown because my stops took me to the sidelines- The one mistake was I bought a Value position on the way down, but discipline made me sell and take the loss.

I think there were some lessons learned this year, as I was working full time, and adjusted my positions after hours- not sitting in front of CNBC..intraday.

3 retirement accounts- IB- my "trading acct" -A ROTH- started 2020 @ $10,450 +/- Tonight $19.361.00 for an 85% Gain. Not too shabby!
I used this as my High Risk type of account- traded both stocks and ARK funds-with a tight stop-loss approach- If price made a Close below the fast 5 ema, I put a stop almost directly under that low.
I hadn't tallied the final # of trades- but a few weeks ago it was over 200 trades- and only 47% were winners- The stop-loss approach and the conviction to not enter during declines was the key to the outperformance of this fund- I held some ARK funds and periodically some smaller stock positions over the course of the year- _ The key there was the quick stops and allowing the winning trades room to run higher.
As I recall on the prior review, Although I had more losers than winners, my worst losers were 1/4 of my best winners- and most were much less.

In Vanguard, I have Both an IRA and a Roth brokerage--
The Roth started 2020 @ $42,800- During the spring I added $7,000 + $49,800- and ended up finishing the year @$62,936 for a 21.9% gain $13,101.00 slightly bettering the S&P's return, but I could have simply bought and held the QQQ and achieved a 40% gain. Contrary to the success I had in IB, this seems a muted return considering I held a number of Ark Funds within this account-
In this account- I allowed myself to get out early and get back in late- for truly reduced returns considering the positions I held. Of course, the decline in March - I was early in Cash- and reentered on the upturn- so I had a low drawdown- but I got shook out on my early reentry and was hesitant to jump back in full force-as the trend resumed higher-
Contrary to the success I had in IB, this seems a muted return considering I held a number of Ark Funds periodically within this account- I attribute the relatively low performance to getting stopped out on minor pullbacks, and the 3 day wait to reenter for funds to clear- or my wanting to be "right in the trend direction continuing.

The Van IRA started 2020 with $80,894.00 from a prior company rollover. In Spring I rolled over the majority of the company IRA into the account + $49,724.00. for a total balance of 180,160.00.. My ending balance is $212,197 for a net gain on investment returns of just $19,000.00 =$149,260.00 for a net gain of 11.7% Still dbl what the professional manager delivers after a 1.70 exp ratio I did not initiate positions in this account in the beginning of the year. It was a gradual and conservative process starting with the funds in a money market account, and gradually easing those funds with conservative positions into play . Since this was the largest account, and with the lowest return , and was not active for the entire year, I believe I can still employ a conservative approach mix in this fund and exceed the market performance in 2021.
So, with 3 approaches- High Risk, Moderate Risk, and Conservative Risk - my goal for 2021 would expect lower gains in the IB account- similar % gains in the Van Roth Account, and Better gains in the Van Ira account- although most projections are calling for a muted market returns in 2021.

So, what is my projection for 2021? I will still employ the IB as my higher Risk trading account- with tight stop-losses-
A few individual stocks may be used - but primarily ETFs. The individual stocks potentially give some excess "sizzle" , but they carry an inordinate amount of Risk compared to using ETFs with multiple holdings. and perhaps excess reward if you are lucky enough to select the best stocks in the best sectors- Or higher losses if you select the wrong next popular thing. Please note that I still have the discipline to not allow any individual stock to exceed a 2% position size in my portfolio- unless well into highly profitable territory- FCX presently is the largest single stock position.
As i move forward in 2021- I don't intend to spend the day behind the computer screen- As addictive that could become... I want to garden, boat, fish, and spend those activities with LOLO.and eventually with my children and grandchildren post Covid -or a vaccination I also want to demonstrate to my larger Family the opportunity to beat the averages with not settling for the stereotypical asset allocation models. However, knowing when to step aside and go to cash or reduce exposure/reduce Risk is critical.
Somehow appropriate:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w4RvskuFnPY
Price's relative position to the moving averages is the obvious signal of where one should be positioned. Trade only With the Trend, until the trend ends- I have to remind myself of it's basic simplicity. It keeps one on the correct side of where the market is heading.
Of course, there are those confused periods of market chop and volatility-and when will they show in 2021? Not If, But When.
All the predictions of the markets being presently overextended are correct- But potentially this can continue with the Fed support...
Or- the Overdue correction- will manifest itself in the weeks ahead...
Keeping this in context though- These good results came primarily because of the strong trending Bull market-

[sd]

12-31
Market Futures slightly higher-
Time to put some perspective on the year- and concerns
Good gains were achieved by participating in this extraordinary Bull market-
When does this Bull take a rest? Locks in profits ? I think this happens soon- Nasdaq up 94% from the lows-43% YTD...
Will the tech sector outperform again in 2021? That would not be typical for Tech to outperform again as it has in the past couple of years-
This chart from Sentimentrader -https://www.sentimentrader.com/

i.imgur.com/0asLakP.png

I woke early focusing on the knowledge that we are overextended- The Smart money is leaving the room, and not chasing-
Sector rotation is indeed occurring, and money is coming out of the specs and tech stocks to fund new positions.
TSLA just made a brand new high- up 600% on the year ! Valuation looking years ahead is improbable to meet-
Elon MUSK- remarkable genius, realized many valuations lower his stock was overpriced-
Yet it has been added to the S&P, and valuations be d**ned, it's all about the momentum-
Similarly Bitcoin- it's all about FOMO and momentum- and yes, it's 2000 all over again it seems on these extreme moves-
SPACS are also the next best thing in 2020- being bid up on pure speculation

For all the momentum going into everything tech, including the ARK funds- One has to be aware that we at a rarified altitude-
ARKK UP 160% from Jan with a -45% decline from the Feb highs. As I view the weekly chart, Price Weekly moves often have had basing periods with a fair amount of volatility- 15-20% moves and often penetrating back into the prior base. If one had bought this at the lows- and held through the volatility, that would be a big win! Unfortunately, I was not able to do that- On the chart, if one bought Jan 2, had a +20% run up in early Feb, where would a stop have been placed on that early gain? Only to see price pullback to where one entered, and then drop
down to the mid 30"s - a -45% decline from the highs that were reached.
As we go into 2021- I know I could not simply hold an entire position without a stop- but perhaps I can employ a variation on the Landry approach- Once stops can be raised to Break even, trail a partial position on the fast daily chart, and allow the other portion to only gradually get trailed wider- When the 1st position stops out, look for reentries higher- the IB aggressive approach.
i.imgur.com/lnAqp8G.png

Added note-I did add back some partial ARK funds positions yesterday, and am overweight ARKQ-I think the robotics/automation theme continues in 2021- and ARKQ had less aggressive growth-
Markets Closing out 2020 on a muted note.

It's been a remarkable year over all- and it will be great to see 2020 in the rearview and ideally an end to the Covid early in 2021-
Milestones- made- and kept -some decent gains .
Retired-2 weeks ago @ age 70+- with LOLO some 40+ years, and both of us blessed with good health. Time ahead to enjoy the fruits of our labors!
A new Granddaughter in the Family -now 4 girls!
Looking forward to 2021- Fishing, Garden, Investing, and a new Thread to keep me engaged , and possibly give others a different perspective.

[ira85]

SD, It sounds like you are off to a great start on all kinds of goals as you make the transition from full time employed to full time retired. Congratulations are well deserved! Your posts are great. Keep up the good work.

I wanted to see what the first week of January was like last year so I googled it and found this in Barron's, " History shows that the S&P 500 index has ended the full year in the same direction as it began it in 82% of presidential-election years since 1950, according to data compiled by Dow Jones Market Data. The S&P 500 rose 0.7% in the first five trading days of 2020, suggesting a higher finish to the year if the historical pattern holds true."

So using the first week as a predictor for the full year was exactly accurate. Given there was a stock market crash, recession, world wide pandemic, risk of a collapse of hospital medical care, and a disputed Presidential election, it's surprising this little indicator was right on target.

The cover story for the January 11, 2020 issue of Barron's, the annual round table issue, had this headline, "There’s Almost No Chance of a Recession This Year, Experts Say." Barron's missed that one.

The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) "defines a recession as a significant decline in economic activity, lasting more than a few months. The NBER announced on June 8 that "the unprecedented magnitude of the decline in employment and production, and its broad reach across the entire economy, warrants the designation of this episode as a recession, even if it turns out to be briefer than earlier contractions." "The 2020 recession is expected to be the worst recession since the Great Depression. In April 2020, it was already worse than the 2008 recession in its initial ferocity." -ira

[sd]

IRA,
hadn't looked back....
I hope 2021 will be a year of solid gains- but not expecting the bull in tech to continue to be so momentous.
2021 will be less like shooting Fish in a barrel and following the market's shifts into more diverse areas.
I like your insightful posts- hope you continue in 2021!
Have you considered engaging any stops yet? Jan 4 - the bloom is off all things Tech going higher. :)At least protect the entry costs!

[ira85]

There have been what appears to be warnings in the charts lately. Since I had some out-sized holdings in ARK funds I felt I was over-exposed to risk. After the huge gains last year, the ARK funds seemed at risk for both profit taking and portfolio adjustments. So I sold all positions this morning, 01-05-2021.

Bought 70 ARKW 12-16 @ 145.37, Cost 10,175.90,
Sold all 70 shares 01-05 @ 147.92 = 10,315.90
Cost 10,175 – close 10,315.90 = gain +$140

Bought 140 shares ARKQ 12-16 @ 72 Cost 10,080
Sold all 140 shares @ 78 = 10,920.
Cost 10,080 – Close 10,920 = gain +840

Bought 200 ARKF 12-17 @ 50.24 Cost 10,048.
Sold all 200 shares @ 49.96 for a loss of (10,048 -9,992) = - $56

Bought 50 shares NIO @ 51.50 Cost 2,575.
Sold all 50 shares @ 51.90 for a gain of (2,595 -2575) = + $20

Bought 150 shares PLTR @19.30. Cost 2,894.
Sold all 150 shares @ 23.48 for a gain of (3,522.00 -2,894) = + $628.00

ARKQ had the best recent performance of these 3 ARKs, but I want to preserve capital and lock in available gains, while they are still gains. So I'll hope to get ARKQ again at a better price.

NIO has been a fast grower and doing very well recently. But any bad news cold send it fast track down. And then there is PLTR. Its a great company with a bright future. I'm hoping I can get it on a rebound at a better price. Also, I should remind myself that a good company is not always a good investment. PLTR has been criticized for having costs too high. They bring in a lot of money, but they don't make any profit. Amazon used to be like that.

Of course the market turned up right after I got these sales done. One day is just one day, not a trend. -ira

[sd]

I think your Sells were timely Ira! NASDAQ futures are down large after yesterday's Rally day-
I agree- I've got stops on all Tech/ARK funds - and if the markets get volatile, those big outperformers will see selling.
The elections in GA appear to be 1 confirmation away ffrom a democratic win for both seats- So infrastructure and ESG funds will likely continue to benefit-
as increased infrastructure spending likely , healthcare governance ? Tech is the cash cow I think for realigning one's portfolio allocation in 2021.