SD-2020 TRADING WITH THE TIDE

[sd]

PLTR DOWNGRADE- at some point valuations do matter .
www.cnbc.com/2020/12/02/morgan-stanley-downgrade-sends-palantir-shares-sliding.html

Demonstrating the PLTR chart price action- Note that both of my recent momentum plays remaining positions LGVW, QS sold off today
as prices declined even further and hit my lowest remaining stops .
It begs the ultimate question - at what point does a winning trade with a big gain- 100% + that appears to peak and then weakens- does an investor- step in and locks in some gain? Realistically, none of us know when a stock has peaked at a high- but perhaps scaling partially out of a big winner makes sense- particularly if it allows one to buy more for less money with the excess profits- I think that when any stock surges on momentum, one can expect the momentum run to run out of steam eventually- This has been a particularly momentous November- reaching historical gains (abnormal) in part due to the added momentum supplied by all of those home bound individuals adding to the upside momentum.
i.imgur.com/X1hV7pc.png

[sd]

Quite a few positions stopped out today on the 4 hr stops established and raised this am. . The remaining partial stops LGVW, and QS stopped out on the lowest tier of stops- still locking in gains- but i was hoping for that surge higher - similar to what an investor may look for on their position if declining. Now I consider that My gains would have been higher - had i simply chosen to split the position sell and stop... But there is always the chance that a position - if given the chance- will become that 10x bagger-
AHH- the Optimism! Human nature!
GBTC remains interesting- It was trending well- indicated a psar weakness-prompting an early sell- gapped down -12% the following day, and then gapped back up higher- The volatile drop in GBTC illustrates how speculative this is- Strictly monies one can afford to lose at the Casino- Las Vegas or the Spec markets-
Price has since rebounded to the prior high level- and that now poses resistance @ $24.00- This is a momentum trade that I am now on the sidelines- That big gap down, and the big gap higher- is out of my league- Price is so volatile here- it's a biggggg gamble-
i.imgur.com/nUHwdj9.png

[sd]

GBTC- Interesting volatility
Makes this a totally Las Vegas type of momentum play - Without an established trend- this seems to be pure speculation

i.imgur.com/lnm3rDn.png

[ira85]

CONGRATULATIONS on your retirement!! I think you're gonna love it.

GBTC issues. I have 200 shares of GBTC bought @ 15.53. It was down sharply at the open and gradually worked it's way higher all day. I ran across an old question from several years ago when I was first learning about Bitcoin. One question led to another and to another. I remembered that I decided to stay away from Bitcoin a few years ago. Too many variables that are completely different than anything else in the world of $ and business. For example, people talk about Bitcoin as a new asset class replacing gold as a currency hedge and store of value. It has some big advantages, like ease of transportation and verification of authenticity. Bitcoin as a currency is lousy. The price is too volatile. People like the anonymity of business transactions with Bitcoin. But there is a downside to anonymity. You can use Bitcoin to pay ransom demands from a terrorist and the terrorist has no fear the currency will implicate him. Or to buy 100 pounds of cocaine anonymously. There are now thousands of competitor cryptocurrencies. What will happen when a new alternative coin is developed that solves some of the Bitcoin problems? Customers would sell their outdated Bitcoins and get the newer, improved cryptocurrency. The value of Bitcoin would tank.

I realized today that I jumped into Bitcoin in late October because there were signs it was being accepted by mainstream financial institutions. Just yesterday Visa announced they were going to market Bitcoin credit and debit cards. That doesn't mean they've solved all the problems with Bitcoin. It just means they are going to try to work with it. Could be Fear of Missing Out. I realized I still have questions about Bitcoin. I think there's a significant risk the cryptocurrency effort to become an accepted financial asset class may succeed but it may also fail. It's been around for something like 13 years and it's more widely accepted now than at any time in it's history. So I'm not expecting a collapse near term. But over the next year or two we might see the effort to develop Visa Bitcoin cards fail and the currency would take a really major hit.

I think the chart action of the last month reflects the new found possibility of mainstream acceptance. But three are still unresolved problems. I think it is prudent to consider this thing has potential for big time volatility, up and down. I decided on a compromise. I sold 100 shares this afternoon at 23.35. I bought it @ 15.53. So I preserve a good gain. And if there is a big drop, I'll buy back in at a lower cost. A significant risk would be waiting too long to get back in if the major trend keeps moving quickly. That was why I didn't use a stop in the first place. I want to try to maintain a rationally consistent plan. So when the downside action stops, I'll plan to get aboard.

In the course of writing this post I can see I was influenced to sell today by the fundamentals of cryptos in general, not specifically the current technicals. It takes me a while to figure this out. - ira

[sd]

I'm looking forward to jan 2020!
I like your analysis regarding the possible evolution of crypto- I also think that was smart to sell a portion and lock in some nice % gains! The price rebounded back to the recent high- and is sideways at resistance @ $24.00 I'm going to set a buy-stop for today in the IB account- on the prospect it may move higher above the present level- I really prefer the tighter price range and narrower bases found during the past 2 months than this choppy volatile price swings the past week. That was a substantial % sell off last week- and perhaps the rebound is indicative of buying support- You are right- it's starting to be bought by more conventional financial institutions-
I'll go back in with a buy-stop $24.10 limit $24.50 - only 100 shares- Essentially, this follows my trading policy - If I stop-out and the prior trade was trending- and the trend appears to resume, I will consider a reentry at the higher price-
In this case, I will be using settled cash in the IB account for this order- IB should likely not hold me to the same limitations in the type of orders I am allowed (Stop-losses) not allowed with GBTC in Vanguard....
i.imgur.com/uC6ZgYu.png

Also putting in a limit order for ARKK $100.25 in case of a sharp pullback. My present stops are higher-



Filled 100 GBTC 24.10 @ 11:07 am

[sd]

Fri-12-4 Alternate day off- Much to do today- To A & R- it will make sense eventually- stay the course.
TSLA hit my stop-loss for a small gain- Heard that Elon Musk warned his employees that production quotas were essential to be met -stock then went back higher-
Today may be a tell for GBTC- My buy stop order was filled on an incremental push above $24 resistance- Often I would look for a recent red bar -swing low to set an initial stop-on- but $18 is pretty wide- GBTC recent volatility swings are substantial moves - this price rebound suggests a limited supply
to jump right back to this higher level. Certainly ,makes this a High Risk trade-
Morning edit- GBTC is struggling below $24
i.imgur.com/2b8eoJK.png


Following PLTR- GS gave it a downgrade this week- Stock had slowed from $32, dropped to $22 +/- on the downgrade- PSAR reversed on the down move to a Sell- PLTR is up premarket today. $24.73 (7 am)
Price made an attempt to recover Thursday with a Close $24.03 MACD stepping down -will go negative on a lower price move- Sto-RSI sub 0.2. Today should be an indication of whether there is buy support to push PLTR higher again. No Red bar -yet on the weaker price action. Price closing below the Fast ema. I expect that will be generated on MACD breaking the 0.0 line. The intraday low of $21 Wed perhaps will be the swing low- and the uptrend able to resume.
Chart is the Daily, and then the Faster 4Hr - The 4 hr gives earlier signals- and also prone to more whipsaws.


i.imgur.com/3rm7t54.png

Notice the red bars generated on the 4 hr , and earlier psar reaction
i.imgur.com/MQNTm97.png

NIO- Lolo's position stopped out-
4 HR CHART -Illustrates a break higher Oct 29, strong trend- price bars all closing ABOVE the fast ema until a low CLOSE below on Nov 10- TrailIng fast psar would have been hit , 0,02 psar stop hits as price bases Nov 16. Breakout higher Nov 24 fails to get further buying support. Price breaks and Closes below the fast ema Nov 30, pulling the ema down with it- potential head and shoulders formation-

i.imgur.com/H7yRZo3.png
tHE DAILY CHART: Price is rolling over after a strong up trend - Lower price support would be $30.00 if the trend lower continues.
Potentially, it will reverse and yet go higher-indicators presently negative.
i.imgur.com/qwC0RtQ.png

I put all remaining cash back in - repurchased TAN, added to ARKG,ARKK, CNBS,PRNT

Bought SNOW today- Lolo added yesterday- Big momentum up today -

CLNE- finally making a higher move today- The trailing buy-stop worked- kept me out of making a higher entry- I cancelled the order today and used the monies to add to those trending positions. With less than $100 free cash, I bought 20 , and then sold a few small positions allowing me to end up with 90 shares- very small position, but it keeps me engaged to chart it. - Had I set a slightly wider buy-stop with GBTC- I wouldn't have had that position get a fill- as it is down today.
Seeing a strong gain this week, and today's broad price action has 32 of the 33 Vanguard positions all in the green.
DKNG is a stock I own in Van that is down -1.38% today,
GBTC is the 1 -in the red in the IB account-Snap, SPCE,CRSP,ARKG,ARKK IB positions.
CRSP - took a small position @ $110 base the prior week and it broke out - up to $149 today. This is one of Catherine Woods holdings in ARKG.

[sd]

A cautionary voice amid the enthusiasm- As the author points out- periods of excess enthusiasm combined with high valuations eventually get corrected-
How to retain some of those gains when that time occurs- stop-losses are my answer.
thestockbubble.com/a-monstrous-money-supply/

[ira85]

GBTC, bought 200 at $15.53, Sold 100 @ 23.35. GBTC had a very strong climb from $10 to $24. The chart looks to have some support at about 22.70 and probably some more support at 19. But it also has a history of volatility. Of course GBTC is the only public company offering a way to directly invest in cryptocurrencies. The supply demand extremes produce big moves. I've read there are a couple of Bitcoin ETF's coming to market. The ETF structure should make those more efficient than GBTC which is more like a closed end fund. And like a closed end fund it sells at a premium at times. I would expect GBTC to go down when at ETF is nearing release. Hmmm. Not likely I'll find out about it before everyone else. Maybe I should sell GBTC on any weakness and plan to buy the ETF when the next buy signal comes in. I better think that through.

PLTR, bought 150 @ 19.30. It's been volatile. Looks like some support around 22.50. I'll see if that holds Monday morning.

NIO, bought 50 @ 51.50. It looks like there may be a triangle (Oops. I think this is called a Pennant, not a Triangle) forming that could improve the odds for a breakout to the upside. A break below about 41 would be a negative for the triangle hypothesis. NIO has traded as low as 2.58 last December and as high as 57.20 this November. I suspect a lot of people have gains to protect. I'll try to keep this on a fairly short leash.

I'm considering buying DNLI. I noticed at 99.5 it has the highest SCTR of all the stocks with SCTR scores on StockCharts. Then I discovered it's a pharmaceutical company that is trying to develop drugs to treat neurodegenerative diseases. They have two drugs under development now to treat Parkinson's Disease. I'd love to benefit from their common stock and their drugs! We will see. -ira

[sd]

GBTC- It's holding, but you are right- it's quite volatile- There are some new ETF's coming out with bitcoin exposures- But you can get some of that in ARKF- as well as other fintech investments- in one wrapper- I think that is why I largely prefer to overweight the Ark funds- You get the innovation Risk- across a wider spectrum of holdings- The ARKG - genomics- spread the RISK DNLI may deliver that big bagger gain- or it may spark and fizzle- ARKG is up over 100% in the past year I believe, and I hope in the sweet spot for it's exposure to genomics plays-

This market continues to surprise to the upside- PLTR up +5 today! Seymour on Fast money is a Buyer here- Lolo is buying 50 up here... So, Despite the recent downgrade- the market bids this up on a new contract well beyond it's earnings potential- but stay with the up move and market momentum, valuations are set aside . QS up as well- (I already sold off)_ SPAC plays abound- New SPAC ETF is the way to play this momentum sector.
NIO- Yes a pennant- so a close below the recent lows is reason to exit -Imo. The Electric car space has pushed valuations well ahead of foreseeable earnings- so some reasonable caution in trailing a stop is prudent position management. This entire market place seems to be on a momentum
One of these hot rockets may be the next 10 bagger- or one of the 100 that sizzle and drop aside .
I think that recognizing that the momentum will eventually peak - and potentially decline -not in years- or even months but perhaps just in days or weeks -gives me pause- A trailing stop-loss captures the majority of the momentum upside.
I think that my take-a-way is that this momentum will peak in the weeks ahead, and will get reset @ lower prices..- Yet when that reset based on valuations will occur is well beyond my guesstimations.
i will simply trails stop-losses and enjoy the momentary new highs- knowing that my stops will not capture them

[ira85]

I think you are on to something regarding the market's overall health, momentum, and the level of enthusiasm. I have been skeptical of the market's ability to sustain these gains. So I stayed under invested. I still have too much cash, but I'm deploying it in small doses and trying to learn about managing it in the process. I still think there is a very real possibility of another recession / depression coming. My idea is to develop an emergency exit drill. Have a plan of what to do and when. You have been developing markers to give you objective signs for what is most likely in the near term. Would it be possible to develop an objective sell sign and use that to get mostly into your designated defensive positions. When the sell sign triggers, go defensive quickly. I'm thinking of it as a market call not an individual stock call. That way you are protecting your retirement funds with a low risk strategy. I'm thinking you use stop loss orders now to provide protection. But I think those are implemented one or a few at a time. You might not have an escape plan for the whole portfolio.

But maybe the way you are currently using stop loss orders is all you need. I may just be looking at this from my own perspective. I am making decisions on each holding one at a time and I haven't used stop loss orders yet. As I write this it seems more and more to be my issue. You are probably much better prepared if the market was to implode tomorrow than I am. Except for the fact I'm probably 85% cash now.

You suggested ARK funds might be helpful for me. I was thinking the same thing this past weekend. I don't want to be managing my funds for hours everyday. It occurred to me that if I just had two or three ARK funds and I managed them only in terms of big decisions like dealing with market crash risk. Only two or three holdings would be irresponsible for holding individual common stocks. But a diversified, managed mutual fund-like holding can reasonably make up a bigger chunk of a portfolio. As you have noted Vanguard uses very few funds to make a portfolio. It might be possible to get some market beating performance which ARK has proven they can do, with reduced disaster risk, and spending less time managing it all. What do you think? -ira

[sd]

I think you are on to something regarding the market's overall health, momentum, and the level of enthusiasm. I have been skeptical of the market's ability to sustain these gains. So I stayed under invested. I still have too much cash, but I'm deploying it in small doses and trying to learn about managing it in the process. I still think there is a very real possibility of another recession / depression coming. My idea is to develop an emergency exit drill. Have a plan of what to do and when. You have been developing markers to give you objective signs for what is most likely in the near term. Would it be possible to develop an objective sell sign and use that to get mostly into your designated defensive positions. When the sell sign triggers, go defensive quickly. That way you are protecting your retirement funds with a low risk strategy. I'm thinking you use stop loss orders now to provide protection. But I think those are implemented one or a few at a time. You might not have an escape plan for the whole portfolio.

You are correct, I do Not have a default -GO TO investment planned - I think the TLT would be a potential position- but primarily I would allow my stops to work as they did in March of this year- I would be hesitant to do much more than take a small position betting against this market's present
upwards momentum.


But maybe the way you are currently using stop loss orders is all you need. I may just be looking at this from my own perspective. I am making decisions on each holding one at a time and I haven't used stop loss orders yet. As I write this it seems more and more to be my issue. You are probably much better prepared if the market was to implode tomorrow than I am. Except for the fact I'm probably 85% cash now.
I am presently - "ALL IN" - but with stops on all positions that will take me into cash on a pull back from this present up trend, incrementally adjusting higher during the week if the position has moved higher- The down side to this tight stop-loss approach is that I can get whipsawed out for a relatively small loss and have to chase at a higher price to then reenter- I am also quite diversified in my holdings- including recently adding a number of Dividend ETF's that typically represent "Safer" investments. However, I also have stops on these as well- Those value plays sold off harder than the market in March, and took longer to recover- So there is no "Safety" in holding for a paltry dividend during a market wide sell-off.



You suggested ARK funds might be helpful for me. I was thinking the same thing this past weekend. I don't want to be managing my funds for hours everyday. It occurred to me that if I just had two ARK funds and I managed them only in terms of big decisions like dealing with market crash risk. Only two holdings would be irresponsible for holding individual common stocks. But a diversified, managed mutual find-like holding can reasonably make up a bigger chunk of a portfolio. It might be possible to get some market beating performance which ARK has proven they can do, with reduced disaster risk, and spending less time managing it all. What do you think? -ira

Absolutely- individual stocks bring a huge Risk along with them- I don't manage my positions during the day -unless I have it off work. Typically I will look them over in the pm- and sometimes- adjust stops if warranted on a larger move higher-
Overall, I've been a big proponent of Ark funds- Periods of multi year outperformance - will continue this later this pm


I think it is counter intuitive to be a swing trader and watch your stocks intraday- Plus , a lot of time could be spent doing more productive things- like a walk with the Spouse- or turning the garden.... It is too easy to get pulled emotionally if price appears to be declining and dropping in value- It makes you want to react - to sell outright- and it may be a minor pullback. I always want to view the CLOSE price as where I take my Cues.
Holding a lot of Cash while the market rallies - I get it- and have done that myself in the past- - Prudent to not be too willing to jump in- whole Hog- and take a leap and then find that the markets pull back and take a breather-
Consider this time as your learning curve- There is a large difference when you put real $$$ to work , than when you are trading a paper account or in the Horse Race- When no one had any real skin in the game.-
So, Let's assume that you want to put some of these $$$ into the market- but don't want to Risk all of your money on a new endeavor-
That's smart- The learning curve comes at a price- Trading with Real money - puts a new importance into play- My suggestion:
You use the multiplier- I will assume that you have $x dollars- but I think you should start with just 1/4 of your assets (25%) and
you could pick 5 positions to invest in- The goal is NOT to make a lot of money- The Goal is to manage those 5 positions- and ideally not to lose too much, and even possibly see gains- In 3 months, you add 25% more cash if you've made net gains- and- if not- you work with the 1st 25% allocation - keeping it in play with whatever stocks you shift into. This would be a 1st good small step -
Develop your own portfolio - apply whatever investment criteria is appropriate for you-
Since I'm focused on Momentum - i would start with ETFs and not individual stocks- ...
ARK has 5 + different funds - but there are also other momentum sector funds to select from..

[ira85]

Bought 200 shares GBTC on 10-27 @ 15.53. Cost 3,106
Sold 100 shares on 12-02 @ 23.35
Sold the remaining 100 shares on 12-07 @ 22.27
Net gain $1,456 or 47%

Bought 150 shares PLTR on 11-23 @ 19.30. Cost 2,895
Closed today 12-08 @ 28.59
Paper gain to date $1,393.50 or 49%

Bought 50 shares NIO on 11-23 @ 51.50. Cost 2,575
Closed today 12-08 @ 46.56
Paper loss to date $247 or 10%

I'm not as good at math as I used to be. Apologies for math errors.

This is going okay but it's too labor intensive for my taste and abilities. I work terribly slowly and make mistakes too often. Change of strategy. I will continue to monitor the progress of PLTR and NIO. I'll plan to sell NIO when it appears its upward trend may be breaking.

NOI is a Chinese automaker, ev's specifically. It may be the best domestic auto maker but they face competition from Volkswagon, General Motors, Tesla and several more foreign companies in addition to their domestic competitors. They all aint gonna win. I'd be inclined to bail on NOI before I'd give up on PLTR. It seems PLTR has an unusual and effective moat. The prospects to grow their business appear to be great. This company might become huge. I hope to be able to hold on to PLTR through volatile periods. It is likely to be very volatile for the indefinite future.

Instead of buying more single company stocks I'll plan to buy some of the ARK funds, most likely Next Generation Internet, Fintech, and Autonomous Technology & Robotics.

I should have been paying closer attention to SD. I'd be farther along in this endeavor. -ira

[sd]

Tech sector sold off hard today -2%! leading the indexes lower-
So, the recent gains of the past weeks were on strong momentum, and clearly the enthusiasm level for all things Tech was excessive.
Ira posted several of his recent trades-
GBTC - Nice entry in the continuation of the uptrend Held for 5+ weeks- had a sharp price drop (red bars) and an unusual bounce higher recovery and IRA took 1/2 the position off at that time- He held for a few more days, and sold as Price dropped below the recent consolidation- Price is now -15% from where he sold and locked in the higher gain! And potentially heading lower - Definitely Not a time to be repurchasing. Add this provision: When price bars are declining and dropping below the fast ema- we just don't know how far they may decline-
Conversely, SD bailed earlier, but took a reentry on a buy-stop that was too tight, got filled , and had to take a loss as price declined below the fast ema.
Very nicely executed to lock in profits-

i.imgur.com/STsXK2G.png

NIO- EV SPACE- ENTRY WAS good- ON AN UPTREND CONTINUATION- That happened to capture the top in the momentum-
Since then, a number of red bar closes lower than the ema , with price presently finding support @ $42.50 .
Indicators are showing improvement from the early Dec drop. PSAR went negative on the Dec1 red bar Close.
i.imgur.com/gMrwAeJ.png

PLTR- PLTR entry a good entry on a continuation of an uptrend - Captured a nice up move, had a pullback from $31 down to $22- and then a recovery move higher. There are 2 levels here $21 or $23.50 under the red bars that should potentially see some support and buying if this stock continues to range sideways.

i.imgur.com/nB1fBaC.png

With today's Tech sell-off - the question of high valuations and possible market rotation may be just starting.
Now is not the time to add significant % of long positions in the tech space. - A 1 day drop does not a trend make -but should be viewed with caution- If developing a portfolio, it would be prudent to do it incrementally- over time - perhaps look for the pull back and attempt to move higher- upturn to initiate a 1st position

[sd]

I only had 4 trades execute today, but I will be reviewing where stops are this pm- The morning started with an upmove, that turned into a big decline in the pm- mostly in the Tech sector.
The momentum of the prior 2 weeks pushed account values to all-time highs - as i noted previously- valuations are stretched- and valuations count - eventually-
I would not be starting any new Tech positions today! Sorry E- you were 1 day early- it happens. Welcome to investing.
While I came home this past week only to see all-time highs logged in daily- what counts is what part of those highs that you manage to retain- Paper profits don't pay the rent! When we know that things are likely overpriced and over hyped- we need to take off the blindfold and be ready to try to capture as much of the greed that others are willing to share with us.

[sd]

reviewing charts early am-
Listening to the common sense voices of those declaring how overbought this market is presently-
Vaccine news or delay could be the catalyst for a sell- Nice gains- protecting a good portion of those with stops tightened.
Yesterdays 2% Nasdaq sell-off may turn out to be nothing of consequence-or it could be a signal of a peak- at least temporarily in the broad Tech sector-after a good 2 week run higher.

ARKG recently had a momentum surge higher, pushing above the upwards channel line-hitting $97.50- vs the $87.00 top of channel line one may have expected. We have a GAP higher 12-7, followed by a tight inside bar, and yesterday a cautionary
drop in momentum bar - Notice the MACD histogram peaks - much higher than prior months.
i.imgur.com/guHSiwX.png
The 4 hr chart- 2 bars per day 2 PSAR values hit by the closing bar yesterday- We had the gap, possibly a gap retest to $89 would be able to hold, but in light of the break above the channel , and possible sector wide weakness, I'm tightening the stop to just below the $90.72 low- $90.60 Very aggressive stop.


i.imgur.com/ghUY0Fi.png
cANNABIS etf CNBS - I kept a wider stop-loss than what PSAR had suggested- PSAR had suggested a stop-loss be at $18 2 days earlier- I was trailing at the wider slow psar- but with the red bar close yesterday, I'm tightening to $16.80
i.imgur.com/lEbGTVt.png