SD-2020 TRADING WITH THE TIDE

[sd]

It looks like you are doing some in depth analysis of GBTC IRA!
It will be interesting to see if the PSAR suggested sell on yesterday's price weakness- will actually see if the price will drop lower and would activate the Trailing stop -loss level @ the $20 price. If one applied the Daily Psar,0,02 they would have a stop-loss still at $20.00-
i.imgur.com/tFEh4U0.png
I applied the faster 4 hr chart 0,01 psar and it prompted the sell.
Looking again- and learning psar- the nuanced differences in the daily and the 4 hr-
On Nov 3 4 hr 0,01 psar generated a sell signal -on a bullish green bar- possibly due to the prior blue bar.
If one only applied the psar as a trailing stop-loss, one would have stayed long in the trade then as the stop-level was not reached.
nov 9 price had jumped up prior- generated a red bar that was well above the psar level.
11-25 a bearish red bar was generated- with a psar sell above the bar, but it also broke the trailing stop-loss level
Let's see if this will become a predictor of lower price action and a turn down in the fast ema, or get whipsawed with a resumption of the uptrend
i.imgur.com/SKR7B2s.png

Yes I spend a considerable amount of time to backtest the TA that appears to looks promising- I want to both understand the benefits and also the weaknesses of applying such an approach as I am doing now - with very real money- One is prone to see the signal and positive results while disregarding the negative aspects of some TA signals- Whipsawed signals- diminished returns in strong trends vs Buy and hold (During the trending period) How easy it is now to feel Bullish about the trend we are in - but the Buy and holders
forgot the Angst they felt when they lost 33% of their accounts value-in Feb and March- Even worse, although there has been a recovery off the lows lately- those valued dividend stocks got crushed even more- If we never have another big market sell-off, Buy and hold is the way to go.
Protecting your gains comes with a cost- lower net returns possibly in an uptrend with whipsaw signals periodically-
But view this SPY chart and notice that the person that applied the PSAR as a stop-loss would have lost the early 4% gain- and would have been holding all cash on Feb 24 with the e account at $100,000.-- and would be a potential buyer March 26- @ $260 .00
Since, there have been 4 periods of psar stops being hit- 3 of those resulted in losses as the trend resumed, and 1 in a gain.
This is what motivates me on applying a stop-loss approach. Psar may not be the perfect indicator- but it provides a defined approach that captures the majority of trending moves- keeps you out during harsh declines- and is worth a study to see if it improves one's net results- Most won't bother doing the homework, or get discouraged on some whipsaws. I prefer to be a bit tighter with my stops,
so I'm researching the 4 hr psar and applying it to my positions today.
i.imgur.com/RujwKo2.png

[sd]

Bought QS on momentum 50 @ $25.92
I see a lot of SPAC companies crossing the Cnbc ticker this past week. QS was brought to market by a spac-
QS- sold 1/3 -16 @ $36.10 Price is up 50% from yesterday.
i.imgur.com/MpYEs8q.png

LGVW -spac. position still active- split stops in place

GBTC did open today on a gap down to $18.50- a verification of the earlier psar/elder bar signal prompting a sell stop hit 11-25.
i.imgur.com/usAq5fI.png

Accounts at new highs-What counts is how much you hold onto. Nice end to the vacation week though!

[sd]

SAMPLE INDICATORS WITH A FAST 4 HR CHART- I added 3 psar values- standard 0,02 slower 0,01; slowest 0,005.
To be noted- psar works best in trending conditions- Despite the blue and green bars Mid october -Nov the psar values alone would have seen a failed entry due to the fast psar- combining with a view of the indicators would be prudent-
Also, the potential for early entry signals based on Green bars that failed mid oct largely did not have indicator agreement.

i.imgur.com/mO1AFkA.png

[sd]

Recent Entry WKHS not participating in today's rally- basing @ prior Oct price-/ resistance
Did not follow with a tight psar stop- had raised stop to breakeven- the fast psar generating a potential sell-signal
I'll use slower psar as a stop value- dropping back to the 2nd psar -$25.50 vs the $26 value.
i.imgur.com/iI4kt0V.png

[ira85]

I bought PLTR for 15.53 per share on 11-23. On Nov 25, the day before Thanksgiving, the price shot up at the opening with strong volume. Got up to 33.50, more than double my money in 4 days. Then something happened. Sellers came in and the stock went down to a morning low of 26.12. About a 14% drop in 3 hours. The selling then was met with buyers and the price went up to 29.37 in about 15 minutes. Sellers came back in and it finished the day at 27.66. The close was not the low for the day. Even though the buyers got clobbered, they were hanging in there in the afternoon. There didn't seem to be any capitulation.
Why the selling? There was a news story that a well known professional short seller, Citron Research, had announced they had taken a short position with a price target of $20 by December 31.
The day before Thanksgiving was the last day any defensive action could have been taken before this short attack. What did things look like then? The price closed at 29, which was well above even the 5 day simple moving average. PLTR went public at $10 a share the first of October. It went down as low as 9.20 in October. Before going public it was a private company that had never had a profitable year in 17 years of operations. That may have led some to be cautious initially. The company released good numbers for Q3 and they were off to the races. They were signing new contracts with new customers and their existing customers. They were demonstrating the validity and value of their services in helping a variety of businesses achieve their goals by working with PLTR. PLTR is a leader in big data with the potential to continue to be a leader in one of the biggest and fastest growing businesses in the world, high tech/big data/the cloud/etc.
That seems to be the story for PLTR. Bright future but extended valuation. It rode the 5 day SMA. That started to turn up at about $11. There are no gaps and no congestion areas. I don't see much that would be potential support till it gets back to about $11.
I think volatility is the biggest issue here. The speed and magnitude of the November 27 plunge is clearly a big “ouch.” I think this kind of company, early in it's history with a potential for greatness, and therefore given a high valuation, the valuation makes sense. It's not over valued due to creative accounting, hiding negative information, etc. It's overvalued because so many people think it's wonderful and they want a piece of the pie.

I would be reluctant to put in a protective stop because this stock has potential for big quick moves up. If they report good numbers next quarter, they could shoot up. They could have a big down day that leads to short covering and that rally could make up a big portion of the loses. I think I'll just let it ride and watch what happens before making any changes.

As I worked on this post I reminded myself I know from watching SD work that I don't have the desire or even the ability to do as much work as he does managing his portfolio. He does it better than I could. I'm just taking a portion of my retirement portfolio and running it to learn more about this stuff. At some point I expect to turn this remaining portion over to a pro manager. The practical upshot is I won't try to duplicate SD's strategies. He's hands on every day, keeping his loses low. He's really good at it. Too mush work for me.
I have less of the technical trader gene in me. I am hoping to apply some of the TA tools to trade occasionally and reduce risk of huge bear market / crash scenarios. Maybe make a few trades a quarter or a few trades a year. I think I'll look more like an investor than a trader.
-ira

[sd]

Recognizing what type of investor you are comfortable with , and your Risk tolerance, is a positive-
You are astute in understanding the financials behind a stock- and also that market momentum may push a stock outside it's valuations-
Eventually, PE and valuations almost always eventually become recognized by the markets-
I would certainly suggest that employing stop-losses on something that has moved up this dramatically on broad market momentum would be prudent- You are also correct- my type of positioning requires a willingness to tighten stops- with the intent of allowing the trend to continue, but does not allow for much of a pullback- which is just a normal consolidation that occurs when stocks trend, pause,trend, pause.
I do not necessarily view my positions as long term investments-and so will not reap the rewards of holding that 10x bagger over 2-3 years of ups and down. My approach requires a willingness to repurchase after price goes back up after I stopped out 3-4% lower - and, as my wife can attest to, I spent way too much time behind the computer this vacation week- with CNBC in the background. Circa 2000.
This present market run up- all these new SPACS- reminds me of 2000 tech run. Eventually , valuations get stretched out so far into exaggerated future earnings (Think TSLA), that there are no more buyers to be had at such lofty prices. It's like some of the toy selling on AMZN, EBAY, with jacked up prices taking advantage of those desperate to get that one special toy or game console.

I would recommend: as an investor- perhaps a weekly chart- would be the wider view to gain a real perspective- But, I would also reinforce the idea that once one has a substantial gain, they shouldn't let that entire gain evaporate by not setting a stop-loss at some level above their entry . IF PLTR had been public in Feb this year, It would likely have become available much less expensive in the $5-7 range in March. And without earnings to support the valuation?

Consider applying a weekly chart to your investments as that will keep the trend in focus, and ignore the daily "Noise".
i.imgur.com/DfVtQK7.png
Eventually, I hope I could allow myself to enjoy my upcoming retirement by separating my positions into those that are "Investments" and those that are more speculative. Hmmm- that is something I should study some- Stan Weinstein style- Holding a winning daily position and then rolling part of it over to a weekly investment position with a wide stop- I have differentiated a portion of my holdings into dividend fund ETFs.

[sd]

seekingalpha.com/article/4391227-clean-energy-fuels-now-may-finally-be-time?utm_medium=email&utm_source=seeking_alpha&mail_subject=must-read-google-s-super-app-wakeup-call&utm_campaign=nl-must-read&utm_content=link-13
Working on a weekly chart view of Spy- In the interim, read this SA article positive on CLNE- Nat gas play- May make a small order Monday- will review ....

[sd]

3 year weekly chart study of SPY
Before getting into any TA stuff - consider if this was your money invested
When things are bullish, we tend to focus on how beneficial the market is with our investments- This is our human nature at work-
We tend to see what we want to see- and in a bull market- we see what supports our perception at that moment in time.
This 20 year old study is worth a viewing www.youtube.com/watch?v=vJG698U2Mvo
Supports the view that we tend to see what we want to see- and possibly ignore the rest....
another fun "selective focus" test :
www.youtube.com/watch?v=_bnnmWYI0lM

Chart illustrates a 3 year weekly chart- that starts with $100,000 invested in SPY Jan 2 2018 @ $254.31 = 393.22 shares
(Or 39.32 shares on a $10,000.00 position)
i.imgur.com/4GnaB2i.png

Note that a historical average return - with dividends - may be close to 10% .
The 2018 chart starts Jan with a move higher- but then declines until May, when the trend picks up on steady momentum to the upside- with a 10.9% gain through September to a new high. From Oct through December- price trended lower, and lost 19.8% from it's September high and -11% from the start of the year. In 4 weeks in October, price gave up all of the gains made by holding the prior 9 months. November tried to hold , but December saw another big -9% over 4 weeks.!
Your 100,000 investment is down- $11,000 from the high, and down about -$7,000 from the Jan start. Percentages count .
Why I am an advocate for stop-losses:
A rally in late December gave me a buying opportunity because my stops gave me cash-during the sell-off. I started buying on the -20% decline on 12-24- and again in the weeks that followed- because I had cash on positions sold at higher prices. I was able to repurchase More shares @ lower prices. (NO, I was not lucky enough to go -ALL-in December 24,26)

But consider if you held through thick and thin - By Feb of 2019- you are about at breakeven from your Jan 2018 start- and the market rewards your buy and hold approach with an outstanding +34.8% gain- YOU FEEL GOOD! You are Right to be a Buy and Hold investor- knowing the market eventually comes back. You are rewarded with an added +5% gain in Feb 2020- and life is GOOD- Your 2 year averaged gain from the start in Jan 2018 is up to + 24.98%- Your $100,000.00 account is now worth $125,000.00- nothing to sneeze at -+25% IN 2 YEARS!!!
But then comes a Black Swan EVent in March called Covid- and this Black Swan (Taleb) out of anyones point of reference, takes the value of your holdings DOWN -35% from the 2020 highs-
Not only did you see your 2020 gains evaporate in 6 weeks, it also wiped out all of your gains for the prior 2+ years in just 4 weeks .
Your $100,00 initial investment is now worth just $85,108.00 - a loss of $15k over 2.25 years, but more importantly, a loss of $44,762.-- from the highs that were made. That was 44% of your starting investment that slips through your fingers because it was easier to take a Buy and Hold approach and not take on any personal responsibility - "It's the market that gives and the market that takes" - It's "out of your hands" when you take a Buy and Hold- "I'm an Investor" attitude and approach. Just like hundreds of thousands of others in the same boat- being pulled in whatever direction the market tides take them.
BUT, Saved In April 2020- the market finds justification to not only make a recovery- but to push past Covid and find reasons to be more optimistic for the future- despite the millions that lost their jobs, the tens of thousand businesses that will not return, and the upcoming mortgage foreclosures and properties that will not have paying renters into 2021.
The Buy and Hold investor now sees his account recover 68% from the March Lows - His $15,000 2.25 year loss recovers and rallies 85% higher to a new market high, and a 14% respectable gain for the year - and his initial investment of almost 3 years is now up 43%!!!
That is $143,000.00 - a 3 year average gain to date of 14.3% ! Beating the historical averages
Will we go yet even higher in 2021? It looks like it will start going higher- but we are a month away- Will we make it even higher through all of 2021? Or will there be another decline by some unforeseen blackswan event that takes our initial $100,000.00 investment down below
where we started?
When we elect to be passive riders on a train without a conductor- we have no say-so where we may end up .We are simply along for the Ride, and hope it is to our benefit- We have abdicated any responsibility for the outcome- settling instead, for our future benefit to be the random result the markets give to us- for we feel they are vast and beyond our influence- This is true- We have no influence on the markets direction- and it's motion is unknown- but we can see when it gets diverted from it's present positive track and perhaps goes to a side rail, and even turns in direction- Ideally, we are on a rail that is running North east from a southern start - if one can pardon the analogy- When the North east train diverts towards the South- that diversion is worth noting..., If our destination was to end up in in NYC from Houston, and we are diverting to Washington DC, we are right to be concerned. - If we see the diversion is taking us down to Miami FLA, we realize that we are heading way off course- and would take action - and get off at the next station and correct our course.
This chart makes me be an advocate for affirmative action in setting stops based on some type of methodology- I will explore the widest
type of stop- in the future- starting with a Close below the 50 week moving average- (although that wide would not be my personal choice) Let's explore what an investor may do in the future to retain a portion of his gains, and reduce his potential for greater losses.
In 2018, our initial investment saw price rise until OCTOBER- By then, the 50 week moving average had risen to our entry cost-
Let's not react at the 50 week- as our stop-loss- Let's allow price a wider range- and require a Weekly CLOSE below the 50 week ema. and we set our stop at the LOW of the bar that Closes Below the 50 EMA, and we reenter the position on the weekly bar that closes above the 50 ema- with a confirming indicator.
Notice the MACD went negative Oct 1- Big red bar 2nd week October- Macd negative and increasing- Week 3- inside lower bar- Week 4 Closes below the 50 ema.@ $255.00 MACD stays negative while price chops sidewaysm for 2 months until breaking lower. Finally in 2019- week 4 - a higher Close above the 50 week ema as well as aq positive MACD above the 0 line suggests a reentry - This reentry holds throughout all of 2019- Stops out in March 2020 @ $292.- under a very negative Macd - reenters May 10 $293.00 as MACD confirms above the 0 line.
This proposed approach does not capture any gains at the lows- but it certainly saves a lot of investor pains and substantially reduces the losses using just a price, a moving average, and a momentum indicator- At least on my initial overview-
Can reduced Investor downside be actually achieved by this most basic and simple approach ? It certainly looks promising as it reduces the
substantial losses the Buy and Hold crowd would have sustained. Combining Price with just the MACD indicator looks very promising in this small sample.
A Note- For long term Investors- and I will likely become one in the near future- A sustained Loss in the principal value is not offset by a larger dividend check that comes with a greater loss in your principal. This type of approach may be worth applying to my dividend ETF holdings- I simply cannot comprehend holding a larger loss in account value for a pittance higher in a quarterly dividend check.


i.imgur.com/eQxdrsJ.png

While there are a few daily active viewers on this website, no others except IRA have sought to go through the sign-up process to become members. Likely that is a pain in the backside, but i don't know how to eliminate that- If there are any viewers that have suggestions or comments- feel free to email me @ [e-mail] . as to what websites would be appropriate for this type of commentary- Open for suggestions- SD

[sd]

CLNE - APPLYING A BUY-STOP ENTRY


The article I previously referenced in SA- Seeking Alpha- about the potential upside for CLNE as a natural gas play made some good points about the upside potential for this company. This stock has been on the uptrend with all of the energy plays for the past 3 weeks. It has already made a double from it's $2.40 lows - and it is presently consolidating following a gap higher 11-24 at $5.20
There were several prior ideal entries to get into this stock during prior basing periods that moved up higher-
As I just came across the article- it looks like it made 3 steps higher in price levels- the prior base in early November, saw a step up in price Nov 10,11, (This is a 4 hr chart- 2 bars per one day) which then pushed significantly higher Nov 12- it then pulled back and consolidated for over a week- and broke out with even more momentum. I like the steady blue bar base from 11-13 - 11-20 , that would have been an ideal to also apply a Buy- stop entry @ $3.40

Being late to the party- with energy rallying hard these past weeks- is there any further upside to this particular industry - and -more importantly- to this stock?
I don't have a Clue- but the author made a persuasive argument favoring the stock in a sector that had been oversold for quite a while.
The BUY-STOP order with a Limit- waits for price to exceed my Stop - consider that the activation price is $5.20 which is above the recent highs of the past week. My order will wait to activate until someone is willing to pay up and buys at $5.20 - and then my Stop order is activated- It then becomes an open BUY order- but I also have attached a LIMIT Of $5.35 as the most I am willing to pay-
My order will not get filled if Price opens above my Limit - say it opens @ $5.40 and goes up to $6.00- a possibility. My order will then only activate if price declines back below my Limit maximum price. ($5.35)
I have to place this order in my Vanguard account as I do not have any free cash in the trading account-
The benefit of the IB account, is that I can place a more complex order - I can put in a buy-stop order with a limit price- but I can also simultaneously put in an attached stop-loss order if my buy-stop fills.
With Vanguard, I can do the Buy-stop with Limit- once the order fills- only then can I set a stop-loss order

i.imgur.com/gOSn6OR.png


Hmm edit- I find that my Vanguard order is -My modified order is to Buy @ $5.10 with a $5.35 limit. Order in place for Monday
Pre market futures are down for the indexes . Vacation is over- Back to the day job

[sd]

CLNE CAME UP TO $5.06 , But did not reach my Buy-stop order -$5.10 and it dropped hard - closing $4.55- will see where it goes Tuesday- leaving my buy-stop order open for the moment.
Sold 66 LGVW $16.00- got my stop price- Big down day. Raising my remaining 1/3 stop higher $14.75- split the stop -34 $14.32 (today's low) 34 $13.94

i.imgur.com/lDcH8wW.png
GBTC - Bitcoin is interesting to follow - I sold it on early weakness, it gapped down -12% the next day- and gapped back up today- Still hasn't taken out those 2 higher psar values-I'm not chasing at this extended level despite the gap higher- May revisit this in the future if it offers a more orderly chart price action.
i.imgur.com/jIudNFz.png

Sold WKHS $25.38- Entry was $23.44.
QS-Entry was $25.92 I had sold 16 @ $36.10 on the entry momentum- It closed @ $47 today Up +27% overnight. This solid state battery maker has been invested in by a SPAC- but this Market Watch article thinks -Not so-fast...
www.markethingych.com/articles/sell-ev-battery-startup-stock-because-significant-barriers-remain-51606751985?mod=mw_quote_news
Lots to overcome in the solid state battery market-
That being noted- This may potentially have additional speculative momentum- so I will hold my stops at a distance- but well above the psar.
i.imgur.com/SFvFQ5G.png
QS $35, $38.64

[ira85]

I bought GBTC Oct 27 @ 15.53. It reached a high of 24.06 Nov 25 then went down along with most of the market that day. Interestingly, GBTC was rising in the last hour of trading Nov 27 and closed at 18.83. Monday morning Nov 30 GBTC gapped up to 22.30 and closed at 23.19. It was up 4.36 today. It's less than a dollar below it's high last week. So far the decision not to use a stop loss in this case has worked out pretty well. Substantial losses have been largely recouped in short order. But it is way to early to chalk this up as the right decision. This market and this particular stock have been in a rising trend. Whether that trend will ultimately be ruled as continuing or whether it was broken is yet to be determined.

I bought PLTR 11-23-20 @15.53. It got to a high of 33.50 on 11-25. More than a double in one week. Nov 27 was a predominantly down day with a low of 26.12. The low today, Nov 30, was 24.11 and the close today was 27.11. Interestingly, PLTR traded sideways in a narrow band all afternoon. The buyers and sellers were equally balanced today. Volume was light. It will be interesting to see if this becomes a zone of resistance / support.

For both GBTC and PLTR I made a conscious decision not to use a stop loss. For GBTC it's working out okay so far. But with PLTR it's less clear. It is about 20% below it's high, a substantial loss, but it has retained most of the meteoric rise it had in the month of November.

I was reading something about trading recently that spoke to the issue of when to sell. The expert advised most beginners are too slow to sell. They tend to hold and hope rather than cut losers. I have certainly had that problem, holding losers far too long. The expert advised the key to trading success is in the selling, not the buying. By keeping loses small you preserve capital and that is a critical make or break issue. Either one of these 2 stocks could have a bad day tomorrow and the decision to not have a stop loss will look bad. But one bad day doesn't define the rightness nor the wrongness of that decision. Only time will prove that. More important is the issue of cutting loses in general, not just for these two stocks. Cutting losers quickly is clearly the most efficient way to avoid taking big losses. But that is in the world of the trader, the hard working, every day trader. An investor might be slower to pull the trigger.

I was listening to a supremely confident political commentator on the radio some years ago. It seemed that most of the problems the country faced would be easily solved if people would just listen to this AM radio host. He seemed to have all the answers. I then hit upon a theorom that seems to hold true most of the time, My theorum goes like this, “The complexity of any problem depends on the knowledge base of the expert discussing the problem. The deeper the expert's knowledge is, the more complex and difficult the problem is. The shallower, more superficial the expert's knowledge is, the simpler the problem is. That may have some truth in it. But it's also a handy excuse for why it seems to take me forever to get things done. - ira

I believe your PLTR entry was different- You applied the same BUY amount-

[sd]

Like the post IRA- No time this am- I am going to put in a buy-stop to reenter GBTC at a higher level than where I sold-


Stop $23.70- limit $24.00 - Van will not allow me to do any other trade in GBTC other than a limit- Trade scratched

[ira85]

Oh, I almost forgot. Regarding the theorum in my Nov 30 post on the correlation of the speaker's intelligence to his perception of the complexity of a problem, I heard a good illustration regarding stock trading.
Retail customer: How can I get rich playing the market?
Stock guru's advice: Buy stocks that go up.
Customer: What if they don't go up?
Guru: Don't buy them.

About 1:00 PM. I have three positions currently.

GBTC drifting sideways for the past hour at about 23.20. GBTC is a play on BITCOIN. Today Visa announced they will introduce a credit card and a debit card that will deal in BITCOIN payments and rewards. Acceptance of BITCOIN in everyday commerce is expected to dramatically grow the number of BITCOIN users.

PLTR is rising. At 11:40 it was at 24.70. At 2:00 it's at 26.40. PLTR uses artificial intelligence to analyze big data to find operational insights useful to a wide variety of business and government offices.

NIO was down sharply this morning before 10:30. Now it's drifting sideways between about 46 and 48. NIO is a Chinese auto maker. Makes a lot of EV SUV's. Has plans to make automated and autonomous EV's. Also plans to make a high performance EV SUV, which should be a competitor to Tesla. NIO is a technically sophisticated company that is often praised. It's stock price history for 2020 has reflected those very high expectations. It went from 2.11 a share in March to 57.20 in November. -ira

[sd]

With a few minutes before heading for home-
For myself- I trade with Stops to allow me to take on Risk - Otherwise, I would feel potentially -out on the ledge if I was investing without stops-
However, plenty of people do so, and are rewarded by the long term bull market delivering higher gains to those who stay the course.
With rising momentum, some stocks reach exponential gains - some may hold those gains - others can be on the down side - and the big winner can become a big loser- My mindset for trading - and perhaps even investing- is to allow a winning trade room to run - or be prepared to reenter if stopped out- lock in some gains on a drop in trend- but by all means, once a trade has gone in the right direction- do not let it turn all the way around and become a loser with profits evaporating into negative territory-
I had a number of positions stop-out today as they pulled back on weakness- ZM sold at my breakeven-entry ,enph sold;WKHS, have to see where these fell in the +?- QS, LVGW each sold a partial, locking in gains at a higher stop-loss- still with a smaller final position in each with a slightly lower stop-
Even a compelling story line- may get the market to Buy- but if the market one day feels the valuation is out of whack to future earnings growth- the stock price will correct and momentum players will sell- and some Like NKLA -will find that the Short sellers were correct after all.
So, the Chart and price action demonstrate the present opinion of the market's participants- That opinion is prone to change for better or worse.
Part of the investing mindset requires some evaluation of the merits of investing into stock XYZ- After all, we have limited resources, whether a trader or an investor- A trader may select only on one or two criteria- momentum and direction expectations-
The investor may naturally feel more committed to an investment story because of his personal thesis for it's future success-
The momentum trader may not care about the fundamentals behind the story- as long as the upwards direction is in place, it meets the basic criteria of increasing the profit potential.
The Investor may envision the longer term reward of holding a position through good and bad times- to be ultimately rewarded in his faith-
The trader has little conviction - as he is a crowd follower- as long as the crowd believes the story, he rides with them . When the crowd loses interest, momentum stalls or turns South- the trader does as well.
Time for the road...

Edit- add- As a concession to the benefits of holding a position for the long term, I may consider - holding a stop-loss for part of the position just to protect the entry price- and hold for a longer term.

[sd]

RETIREMENT- HMMM- Gave notice today that Jan 04,2021 will be my final work day. Age 70+
Time off alone with my wife without the Children visiting as normal - because of concerns they had that they could pass Covid along to us.
Put things into perspective- While we do not want to consider these possibilities- as IRA noted- there are many things that would be unknown or left for someone else to learn to do- I spent a few Hours writing a document "UPON OUR PASSING" - That detailed those things that would be essential for our children- or even my wife- to be aware of- Where our financial investments- are located-account #'s and passwords, Bank account numbers- Wills and legal doc's- Health care doc's ; combination to the safe, specific unknowns about the home property- Septic tank location, water valves in the crawl space, where to find the keys to the storage building, boat, and suggestions on what to keep, what to sell.
During the process of writing the document, it brought full forward the potential for a possible infection I could get in the course of doing my job- and the potential for bringing that home-to my wife-
I have a responsibility to the company for decades of providing gainful and sometimes challenging employment- but the primary reason we do what we do, is to ensure a certain quality of life for our families that the income from our jobs provide. Since I am fortunate enough to not require the income from the day job- why continue working - when the downside could be a heart breaking result- loss of a life partner - complication of this Covid-
Why continue to take the Risk? Time to put in a Stop-Loss line in the sand ...