SD-2020 TRADING WITH THE TIDE

[sd]

Stock tracker spreadsheet

If you're not an excel pro- or even if you are: Or If you are not spreadsheet savvy:
This Google Sheets spreadsheet offers everything one could want-
It automatically updates itself during the day with a 20 minute delay-

For those that would like to have a stock tracking spreadsheet that automatically updates itself and you can follow on your phone:
This you tube video helps us poor souls unfamiliar with the basics of Excel develop a great tracking spreadsheet, and shows you how to add a pie chart to see your positions and a bar graph to have a visual of your gains and losses in each position-
(I'm still trying to get that final bargraph to work ) operator error. I'm adding a couple of columns to track when I raise a stop-loss-what the psar value is, and what I use...


www.youtube.com/watch?v=VVAm-ldnWsw

[sd]

mARKETS HIGHER THIS 11-23 OPEN- but softeningS&P, NAS in the red
Sold 1/2 LGVW at the open -caught a high above the open- Splitting the remaining in to 2 trailing stops assuming the gap low may get breached $13.20, and a 66 position @ $12.50 to give it the opportunity to get higher gains.
i.imgur.com/HH5334h.png

[ira85]

I bought a position in an interesting company first thing this morning. The stock is PLTR, Palantir Tech. I bought 150 shares at 19.30. PLTR builds and deploys software platforms for the U.S. intelligence community to assist in counterterrorism activities. There products "enable users to identify patterns hidden deep within datasets, ranging from signals intelligence sources to reports from confidential informants, as well as facilitates the handoff between analysts and operational users, helping operators plan and execute real-world responses to threats that have been identified within the platform." Sounds like issues in mining big data. What interested me is the potential for a tremendous moat. If they are successful in developing data management tools that are valuable to places like CIA, they would need to have their computer science people working closely with the CIA folks. Seems to me they would need to work cooperatively, collaboratively, and handle highly secret, sensitive data. Once the CIA goes down that road, i.e. a working relationship with a publicly traded company there is almost no turning back. PLTR would know too much about internal operations at CIA to let them go work somewhere else. And CIA would be wary about breaking up with PLTR and starting over with another company. The work would be so specialized there would be very few competitors. PLTR becomes a very profitable niche business with no competitors and only one customer, one with deep pockets.

PLTR went public 10-01-2020. This 150 shares may be worth millions in 20 years. Oh. I better not get too excited. I'll be dead in 20 years. -ira

[sd]

You did well I would think with PLTR- I recall several people talking about it recently- and it looks like a strong momentum trend is in play- With the advances being made in medicine, you may yet get to enjoy those profits in 20 years! How is your wife doing-? hopefully only mild symptoms?
Your (and mine) GBTC positions are doing nicely as well!



COULDN'T RESIST- PLTR demonstrating the application of psar
i.imgur.com/e0SBqKZ.png

[ira85]

I entered the buy order this am before trying to use MACD or Elder bars. I did look at PSAR and I got Oct 26 as the buy signal. It looks like you got Oct 23. So I was close on PSAR.

I have a couple of questions, but I don't want to abuse your generousity in giving up your time to tutor me. So just give me a short response if you will and I'll try to use it to learn more about making and using these charts.

Looks like you have PSAR indicating a trailing stop on Nov 16. I can use PSAR to set trailing orders, right? What is it on Nov 16 that makes that a good spot for a trailing stop? How do you manage trailing stops? I've never used them. Do you enter a sell order at a certain price? Or a good till canx order, or maybe something else?

My chart has RSI at 78.92. The RSI info looked good to me.

MACD on my chart only has 5 bars. I'm guessing that's because the company just went public a few weeks ago. Also my guess that's why I didn't get any Elder bars. I appreciate the help learning how to make these charts and use them. Thanks! ira

[ira85]

I made one more buy order Monday, 50 shares of NIO @ 51.50. This is a Chinese maker of electric vehicles. A competitor of Tesla. It's been rising very quickly. Price doubled in a little less than a month. RSI looks okay at 78.08. MACD has the one I want on top (How's that for professional writing style. It's late and I want to get to bed.) The 50 and 200 moving averages look good and didn't change during the day. It looks like the trading got more active late in the day. The PSAR on a 30 minute period appears to have had several changes. It looks like it closed at 55.38 under a PSAR buy signal. Since this is growing so fast it seems it could be vulnerable to some profit taking. It looks like there hasn't been much profit taking yet. Seems like it's been accumulated pretty steadily.

If you would, please let me know if I am misunderstanding some of these factors. I've noticed reading you posts as I have for the past several years is much different than trying to make a chart and interpret it. Hopefully the learning curve will be short. You may feel like a special ed teacher for a little while. I know that comment is probably not appropriate. I was just ready to use a line from Larry the Cable Guy, but that would be wrong. So I'll stop. Thanks SD! -ira

[sd]

Happy to answer your questions Ira as best as I can: I will expand this post as the day goes on
"I entered the buy order this am before trying to use MACD or Elder bars. I did look at PSAR and I got Oct 26 as the buy signal. It looks like you got Oct 23. So I was close on PSAR.
MACD Histogram -under Indicators - typical settings are 12,26,9 and so the delay in seeing any macd-bars generated.
In this screenshot- I had to reduce the chart height to include my other chart settings; i changed the parameters for the MACD histogram to 3,6,4 and this results in the histogram showing sooner- I think the last number is the look back period , and this results in a very choppy histogram . i.imgur.com/U5M1uJx.png
When I smooth the histogram by changing the 4 to a 9 , 3,9,9 it smooths the price out and starts days later.
i.imgur.com/lZi5TWe.png


I have a couple of questions, but I don't want to abuse your generousity in giving up your time to tutor me. So just give me a short response if you will and I'll try to use it to learn more about making and using these charts.
Glad to try to be of assistance

Looks like you have PSAR indicating a trailing stop on Nov 16. I can use PSAR to set trailing orders, right? What is it on Nov 16 that makes that a good spot for a trailing stop? How do you manage trailing stops? I've never used them. Do you enter a sell order at a certain price? Or a good till canx order, or maybe something else?
In the chart below, I removed all but the 5 ema moving average line- for clarity-
Notice the marked up price bars ranges- In applying PSAR values- Psar is designed over time to get closer to the price -depending on the lesser volatility- In the chart , PSAR nailed a very good entry close to the price bottom before the move higher-What should also be viewed
in the context of what occurred in the price action.Essentially a sideways range: One could use a buy-stop based on that prior recent price level range high being exceeded, and use the PSAR Buy sign- Notice that once the price broke above the declining psar, it went sideways for a few days before buyers took it higher- If one used the psar value below each day's price as a trailing stop-loss level, and adjusted higher each day with the new psar, one would still be long this position from that early initial entry. You can also modify your PSAR parameter settings - to be faster or slower

i.imgur.com/Nt2P4eb.png

ON setting stop orders-not complicated once you've done it a time or two.
i.imgur.com/WntonSz.png
on your order menu- this is Vanguard, your broker may have a slightly different format:
If I want to outright sell a position I own-in this case DKNG- the Transaction type is BUY or Sell-
IF I want to set a stop-loss- I open the Order type dropdown menu
gives me a choice to Sell @ Market; Limit; stop, stop limit -The STOP should be called the " ACTIVATE on PRICE being reached"
as I view the chart of DKNG, THE yesterday psar value is $43.34,today's psar value is closer to price (43.34, price is still closing above the fast ema-$48.70, Psar is quite a bit lower .


I select STOP (means the order to Sell will occur only once price has gone down to my price- I enter-) and for Duration I want it to be GTC (good until the order is cancelled -60 days) I enter $43.34 - which means my order to Sell then becomes an active Market order-- It does not guarantee that my sell price order will get filled at that price- it often will be lower!
If I want to have a STOP limit- I may select my activation price $43.34 but I also may want to set a limit on how much below that price I am willing to sell- So, my limit may be any lower price I am willing to sell at- so I may choose to set a limit order of $43.00 . However, If DKNG has a gapdown in price, and opens below my lower limit price, say it opens $42.90 and goes even lower- my order to sell will not become activated until price rebounds up to my limit price.

A Buy order with a STOP- ( ACTIVATE on PRICE being reached) is exactly the same- but instead of selling a position, you want to enter long a position,.. Assumes that the present price is below- but you want to take a position once price starts to move higher- -oR YOU ARE SEEKING TO ENTER A POSITION IN A STOCK THAT IS DECLINING SLIGHTLY IN AN UPTREND! the decling psar can guide you to either wait until a new psar is generated BELOW price- or a trailing buy-stop order would get activated by a decling psar order adjusted lower each day.
Similarly- PSAR can be applied to stay longer in a trending position and perhaps not reacting to a minor pause or drop in price
In this chart- I have included 2 different PSAR vales- 0.02 -"fast" and 0.01 "slow"
I would caution that viewing the price action 10-15 looked promising as a potential move higher- but that failed to get any follow through until 7 days later- So a buy-stop that filled 10-23 would be considered as early -and potentially one would want to see the 10-15 price high exceeded.
For Clarity- as a trailing stop-loss - The present PSAR value is $18.00 for psar 0.02- My SELL STOP order would then be adjusted from the prior day's sell-stop order of $17.20- Over time and with price volatility- PSAR will get higher and Closer to the fast 5 moving average.
i.imgur.com/C8Bjvq1.png
Also note that in a strong trend, Price bars often will not Close below the fast moving average-Price can often penetrate the fast moving average, but go for extended periods before closing below When price does close below the fast moving average, it means sellers were not willing to buy at a higher price that day. Price could rest- or if there are more sellers than willing buyers, price could go lower- if price starts dropping below the downturning fast ema, psar will also be reversing and indicate a sell. One note- adding a 10 ema to the chart - PSAR will get closer to the 5 ema- and it's a toss up depending on an individual stocks volatility whether one wants to consider a stop-also on a moving average.
In a big momentum move like pltr is making today, I would consider to set a partial position stop at the 5 ema value - and move it each day higher- The rationale there is a psar stop is $18.00, the ema $20.39- If PLTR should sell-off tomorrow- and go lower- you take partial profits at the $20.39 and look to buy it back lower. (aGGRESSIVE approach- particularly useful if you get a big momentum gap away from the fast ema- Then set a partial stop just below the gap away low. and do it again the next day if it gaps higher again.
Buy with the added profits once it pulls back lower. Essence of trading market swings. Just be prepared to reenter if the trend resumes higher!
Hope this is useful- Perhaps waaaay too looong.


My chart has RSI at 78.92. The RSI info looked good to me.

MACD on my chart only has 5 bars. I'm guessing that's because the company just went public a few weeks ago. Also my guess that's why I didn't get any Elder bars. I appreciate the help learning how to make these charts and use them. Thanks! irapltr

[sd]

You Are getting it-
A couple of observations - As you learn, you will find that indicators may be useful- but are not the entire Enchalada-
MACD is useful- and very often a wide negative group of bars well below the 0 line - as they start to get smaller- they indicate a slowing in the selling-useful combined with some trend lines- in both up and down trends-
Elder impulse bars - very useful for me- early indications of potential changes in trend- If I am trading aggressively, and want to lock in gains, any red bar immediately gets a stop below it. More aggressive is putting a stop-loss just under any bar that CLOSES below the moving average.
RSI- stay in a position and do not sell because RSI is in the "Overbought" range- stocks can stay overbought and trending higher for many weeks or even months.
PSAR is useful- but as NIO showed a PSAR buy signal 8-11 does not ensure a successful trade. If a Buy stop was on the 8-10 PSAR price, it would have filled 8-11 as it appeared a gap open higher breakout was underway.
Personally, if I was filled on that 8-11 buy order above $15 and closing down about $13.00 I would not use the PSAR as a stop-loss down at the $10.00 level. My discipline on such a large loss on entry is to set a stop-loss directly under the low of the red bar. Someone else would have looked to the left side of the chart and realize that even though the Close was low- it was still above the prior range before August- I should learn to be more willing to set a wider stop - but Risk Adverse.
With Elder Bars- notice that buying on a positive bar above a losing red bar often works-
When stocks are basing sideways- they are potentially choppy - if one had some longer term moving averages on this chart- the 50 ema trend was always sloping up . in basing periods it goes sideways for weeks at a time- Be ready to see it base again in the future...
Hope this is useful- I'm somewhat conflicted as part of my positioning is on the investment side- and part on momentum
Trade with what suits your own Risk Tolerance and conviction!

NIO -

i.imgur.com/MuPUkp4.png

[sd]

1 pm NOTES- BNTX stopped out at the open ona raised stop-loss just above my entry LOLO and I both had positions-
Reason for such a higher stop- Yesterday's gap higher had a significantly lower Close- Made enough on the trade to buyn a cup of coffee.
ARKK positions -Most in the Red today while the Nas is up over 1%- Don't care for this weakness, ARKQ higher
ZM position in the RED stop higher than psar @ 400- will raise to $415.00
WKHS had a large push lower below the fast ema. my entry $23.44 -psar stop value is still wide- $20.09 my initial stop was higher $20.75 PSAR would have provided me a better entry than my days $23.44later one! I do not like the weak volatile price action earlier- Price is testing the Sept highs, opened $29.50, dropped below the fast ema to $24.33, but presently reversed higher @ $27.79. I will use $24 -near the low of this price bar as an aggressive raised stop- but that also gives it an opportunity to accumulate more buyers and potentially break the prior highs- Also would give me a small% gain on my trade.
i.imgur.com/340XHZ7.png
CRSP- a favorite holding of ARKfunds- is basing at the OCT 19 highs My recent entry @ $110.03 it had a recent low of $85- that followed a volatile gap down Oct 20 . I will use a faster time frame chart- 4 hr and will set a stop based on the slow psar and what appeared to be a prior support/resistance level . The fast psar is 108.77- directly under price action-
I'll try the slow psar value $103 that appears to coincide with prior price levels .But I'll drop back to the day prior psar below that price range level
i.imgur.com/Plc3XfC.png
SPCE -Just recently took an entry $24.07- I'm using a 4 hr chart here to both capture a closer look at price bases, and this faster time frame chart also generates closer PSAR signals . I see a 4 day price high base that had a pullback swing low (red Bar) 11-16 , followed by a few blue bars then a breakout 11-18 PSAR stop is $22.36, but I will reduce it to coincide with the psar value at the price breakout level -as an experiment. -it's only money after all...STOP $21.50

i.imgur.com/KUpGixe.png
SNAP: I took an entry as Snap moved up from a recent $39 level it managed to move above the prior recent highs yesterday with a gap up- but the open was the HIGH, and it has since declined- Filled the price gap and is lower on the day today. My entry was early , below the psar signals . based on price action, green bars. Goal here is to not see a winning trade become a losing trade, but instead of selling on the decline, giving it room to pullback a touch and perhaps find it's footing above my stop and go higher.
i.imgur.com/NkG0iOx.png

LGVW TRAILING 2 STOPS ON THIS AFTER SELLING 1/3 AT THE OPEN 11-23 FOR A NICE GAIN. Best gainer in the trading account today!
Stops are designed to be activated on a pullback- and set below the lows of each day
Viewing this on a very fast 15 minute chart -setting 1/3 at the present psar $14.80 and with 1/3 holding wider $13.20
i.imgur.com/LIYVtQW.png

[sd]

Remarkable day- Dow Clears 30K! Vacation allows me excess computer time and posts! That CaChing sound is positions moving higher LOL! Indexes up 1.5% +Nas 1.3 BULL trending days make one suspect they are a trading Genius!
Certainly a Lesson for arrogance and excess Hubris will be delivered to us soon in the day's ahead.
30 of 33 positions were all in the green in the Van combined account- 3 in the Red were ARK funds- and I've tightened stops
I also tightened stops in the trading account- waiting for some cash to clear there so I can make a trade-

Truly this is a market wide momentum that one deserves to be ALL in on- It is a multi- sectors wide rally- with value & energy up the most recently. Even large TECH VGT made a 1% gain today Energy up another 5% today- unfortunately , I never reentered it weeks ago on a tightened stop that was taken out.
My recent expansion -putting everything in play and intentionally diversifying - no bonds though- is clearly benefitting from this rally-This is a byproduct of being on-board when the incoming and rising Tide floats ALL Boats.
The Van account is within 2% of the summer highs , trading account at an all-time high .
Even GBTC (BITCOIN)is rallying- while GLD is selling off. My issue with Vanguard is that it does not allow me to put a stop-loss under GBTC only a market or limit sell because it
POT position higher, CNBS - What's not to like? Make it Legal? I've got room in the garden but it's been decades since I partook.

Adjusting stops - I essentially felt it would be best to use a 4 hr chart w/Psar vs a daily chart- The 4 hr chart gives me 2x the price bars in the same time period- And the dual 01, and 0.02 psar values gives a reference for this faster time frame- I tend to view both the price swings and the psar values- Also- using both the 0.01 and 0.02 PSAR- and in profitable territory, I'm willing to allow the trade to run higher and use the wider psar as a stop value- sometimes.But I also know that Momentum can stall and reverse down -quickly When the momentum has been high to the upside, it tends to over react to the downside.
Thus shifting into high gear with tighter stops can capture the majority of one's profits.
Whew- it's been a Long and profitable Day! I should call the Boss and tell him I'm not coming back to the day job...... LOL!

[sd]

With Energy making a big upswing- I read an interesting article on EPD-
Compelling from the dividend return as an investment - and potentially undervalued.
As a possible longer term play for growth and dividend return- the chart is positive.
11-25- premarket-some cash freed- Went to put in an order for EPD based on momentum in the energy market-
Not Allowed in a retirement account through IB! Just broke out higher from a week long base
i.imgur.com/NJUUSk1.png
Saw an interview a moment ago- Bitcoin advocate thinking bitcoin will go up 5x over the next year-long GBTC- may add...
Had just enough cash free to buy 2 TSLA-
I just raised stops using the 4 hr w/Psar as a guide.I'm defaulting to the slower 0.01 in some instances- In others- like ARKW- The volatility 11-9,10 made the trailing psar values go very wide, and the psar on the daily is way too wide- 4 hr fast psar 121.94 catching up ,but i set the stop @ 125.00.
LGVW had another gap-open, but not as wide, and demonstrated some weakness this afternoon.
Just sold 100 GBTC $21.19 on a 4 hr time frame with slow psar reversing to a sell. tECHNICALLY, This is still in an uptrend, but the price action red bar this afternoon took out the gains for this week. Both fast and Slow psar stops were exceeded on this 4 hr chart .


i.imgur.com/728SIDE.png

Investment advisors are largely Bullish - almost 70%- which is at a multi year high- so it's time to be prepared to remind one'self that
periods of high upside momentum are always followed by a period of profit taking- Stop-losses as part of a disciplined approach may require a reentry at a higher price....if the trend resumes without you- but the momentum theme is playing out strong-
If one started 2021 fully invested and saw gains going into Feb, and did not employ stops- that was a lot of financial pain to endure.

[sd]

It's going to be a ZOOM Thanksgiving this Year- Lots to be thankful for-! Happy Thanksgiving

[sd]

comparing ARKW Daily chart with 0.02 psar
Between Zoom thanksgiving sessions- will have to get screen shots in order -and operator error- lost the earlier start of this comparisom post with the 4 hr chart and 0,01 psar. I wanted to compare the faster 4 hr chart with a 0,01 psar signal vs the daily chart with the 0,02 psar value. Likely will not complete this tonight.
This is the Daily Starting in June through September , and stock results have doubled in value from Jan entry of $1,000.00
i.imgur.com/Lhk7tjA.png
As of Sept 1 2020- The Daily account is worth 17.9 shares @ $115.45 or $2,066.00 -DBL the starting value of $1,000.00 in early Jan.
As of present day. the daily account is worth less : $1,948.00 Almost a 100% net gain in one year.

i.imgur.com/1z7HN3f.png

[ira85]

This is the Daily Starting in June through September , and stock results have doubled in value from Jan entry of $1,000.00
i.imgur.com/Lhk7tjA.png
As of Sept 1 2020- The Daily account is worth 17.9 shares @ $115.45 or $2,066.00 -DBL the starting value of $1,000.00 in early Jan.
As of present day. the daily account is worth less : $1,948.00 Almost a 100% net gain in one year.

Wow! To me the activities needed to get the facts presented in the lines above are a lot of work. I'm repeatedly amazed at how much work you do to keep track of all the stuff you do.  You are the champion!   -ira

[ira85]

As for trading the day before Thanksgiving, see below.

SD and I both had a position in GBTC. SD saw some market action he didn't like Wednesday afternoon and sold GBPT. His comments,

Just sold 100 GBTC $21.19 on a 4 hr time frame with slow psar reversing to a sell. TECHNICALLY, this is still in an uptrend, but the price action red bar this afternoon took out the gains for this week. Both fast and Slow psar stops were exceeded on this 4 hr chart.

I wasn't watching the market that afternoon. I didn't know about the selling action until that evening. These are some of my thoughts looking at the charts.

GBTC had a big drop from February through March, along with the rest of the world's markets. From the March low it went up till early May, then basically went sideways May to October. From early October to November 24 it went from $10.00 to $24.06. The graph of that rise got progressively steeper. Looking at the GBTC price action using a 5 minute period we can see the high of 24.06 was hit a few minutes after the opening bell November 24. After that brief upward move at the opening, GBTC moved down all day, at first slowly but picking up speed during the day. In the last hour of trading it went from 23.40 to 22.14. So the first hour of trading the price went up a dollar and the last hour it went down a dollar and change. Volume was a little higher in the first hour than the last hour. It was a down day for GBTC, down 2 dollars, but it was orderly with no big swing in volume.

November 25 had a similar pattern. Price went up for about the first hour, then basically down the rest of the day. The price fell quickly from about 2pm to 2:15 going from 22.20 to 20.64. The price bounced back up to 21.38 in the last hour of trading before selling came in again for the last few minutes of the day. GBTC closed at 20.86. Both days the volume was a little higher in the first hour when price was moving up. Volume was slightly lower in the last hour when selling prevailed.

Gaps. In the October – November period of rising prices there were 3 small gaps up that had not been filled, November 16, 17, and 20.

What's going to happen next?
Scenario #1: The past two days may be a sign of a trend change. Buying may dry up. GBTC has had a nice gain. It may be time for stock holders to take profits and those waiting to get in may wait for a better entry price. The selling not finding enough buyers could cause some acceleration of selling. SD can sit in the safety of cash and wait for the selling to exhaust itself and he can get a nice discount on his re-entry.

Scenario 2: The past two days may signify noting. There was a pretty good balance of of buying and selling volume. There didn't seem to be any panic. GBTC had well more than doubled in the past 2 months. This bit of selling may just be what GBTC needs to work through some of the froth from the fast pace of the past two months. One of those unfilled gaps is at 19. I think that's a Fibonacci number. The price may go to that potential support level around 19 for a few days. Then the price appreciation resumes. What if this scenario plays out with more selling and falling stock price? What is Plan B? Set a stop loss order at 16.50.

Scenario #3: The current advance has risen to the level that GBTC got to once previously in late 2017 – early 2018. From that level it crashed and burned, going from 38.71 down to $4 in December 2018. Nearly 90% loss in 12 months. Some of the buyers in the recent advance may realize the stock has been here before and it didn't end well. The selling resumes after Thanks giving and the stock goes down a long way, until it presents a compelling risk reward balance and great buying opportunities.

Will one of these scenarios play out after Thanksgiving? We will soon see. -ira