SD-2020 TRADING WITH THE TIDE

[sd]

I agree- avery impressive amount of research- but I take issue with these being the best 15 stocks for a 30 year portfolio-

3 of those positions were tobacco companies- and I view the continued losses of principal as a trend likely to continue-
For this guy, I'll try out the major dividend index etfs
investorplace.com/2020/04/5-dividend-aristocrat-etfs-build-income-portfolio/
I'm adding these as positions today-

[sd]

Going through some positions and totally flat in the trading account-It feels like I could get some Ark funds on a possible decline? -So i placed orders that would see a -7% + decline limit based on the prior drops through the emas for each of the funds-
Have 15+k free, and would like to get entries at a discount- Present pricing appears to be top of the channel highs- and my limit orders may get taken with a little chop the next few days...

[ira85]

SD has been good enough to give us a lot of info on his methods for analyzing stocks, such as determining trailing stop with a 2 hr Renko and PSAR to try to time exits and reentries. SD shows us rational, effective procedures. Now we'll do something you never see in market advisories. I'll show you how a less informed, less skilled person makes scatter shot buys and sells with poorly reasoned strategies. We might call this advisory “The Inept Investor.” Hopefully I can recognize some of my mistakes and correct them.

On 10-27 I bought 200 shares of GBTC at $15.53. Right now it's at 19.99, a 29% gain in 3 weeks. That would be a nice move. But to give full disclosure I also bought 100 shares of SDS on 10-30 at 16.55 a share. I sold the SDS on 11-16 at 13.51 for a 20% loss. So far I've gained $892 on GBTC and lost $304 on SDS. That could happen, right. Not a big deal. But I've bought SDS 5 times this year. Took a small loss every time.

The total loss wasn't big, but the fact there were 5 losses and no gains seems to indicate a failed strategy. I was trying to profit on falling prices but missed every time. The down moves really caught my attention in March. SPY went from about 310 down to 220 in 3 weeks. Those moves were big but brief. I think down moves generally tend to be bigger and briefer than up moves. I've not proved nimble enough to catch those quick down moves. But being able to recognize a crash while it's happening and taking effective defensive action, such as shorting the S&P 500, well that would be everyone's dream. If I could do that I could get rich. It would be great, but it's probably not going to happen.

I should probably stick to trading the upside. I know they won't all be like GBTC. That one has a 29% gain in 3 weeks. It's a big fast move, but with very little volatility. Just steady movement from the lower left corner of the chart toward the upper right corner. As I look at the GBTC chart for the last 6 weeks and compare it to SPY in March, the most obvious difference is the intra-day volatility. Since October 1 GBTC has been in a narrow price range almost every day. Compare that with SPY in March. Spy had a wider swing in daily prices. What corrective action might I take? Obviously don't try to short the market during a market crash. By the time I was pretty sure this was a crash, it was over and I was shorting a rising market. Instead buy little operations like GBTC with price action rapidly rising in a narrow price channel, price rising steadily, not exponentially. I wonder how many of those I can find in the next year?
The Inept Investor -ira

[sd]

trying a few trades- and losing on them certainly does not make you "Inept", as we all have losing trades- or we are not traders.
Part of everyone's process. The real-and more important takeaway- is that you tried them - 5 times- and you took your losses 5 times- That's a winner's approach Imo.
Trading along WITH the direction of the trend is flowing with the Tide- .Since markets don't trend consistently- about 40% of the time is the average I've heard, with periods of sideways action, and occaisional shorter retracements- higher highs-higher lows- a trend- a good perspective is noticing price relative to the moving averages- We've had the big decline in March, when the 10 ema crossed the 50- that's an initial sign that the pause in the trend-perhaps was more than a conventional pullback-- but that also happened in September and October-. If you wait to determine trend based on a slower moving average- like the 50 crossing the 100- a big move has already occurred.
PSAR is an interesting stop-loss- reentry indicator- the .02 standard is faster, the 01 a bit slower - both are designed to close in on price action over time, and so a stop-loss using these would get hit on relatively small pullbacks or slowing of momentum. See the attached chart-with 2 psar levels-

i.imgur.com/aeLCWLg.png

Psar is interesting- the fast psar would generate more trades and reentriues- used with momentum indicators like RSI and MACD, or Elder colored bars, they definitely can assist-in considering where one places a stop-loss- and also when one reenters the trade- PSAR would have captured the majority of the decline in Feb/March.
Worth studying- use the slower 01 setting to have a wider stop and stay in the trade longer- (pink dots) Should also be used in context of the overall trend- where is momentum? Psar will get whipsaws in a sideways range-- but notice it does a good job of getting back in early during trending moves October-November
It would also protect one from jumping in too early....but needs testing for one's style-
Your SDS short the market trades would have likely worked with the fast PSAR - Consider that-
No time to elaborate this am- duty calls

[sd]

Here is a chart of SDS with a slower PSAR value of 0,01.
6 trades would have been generated this year- with 4 of the trades losers, and 2 of the trades wins- one very large in Feb-March-
I always recommend trading with the trend- and also using price & status of the emas to qualify an entry-exit - but PSAR is designed to follow price action.
school.stockcharts.com/doku.php?id=technical_indicators:parabolic_sar
Technically, PSAR above the declining price would indicate you should be long the opposite position- or short the declining SDS- When the PSAR declining value is hit by price action- you stop-out and reverse to a long position.
Lets examine just what would have happened if you started only taking the PSAR to go long the declining SDS- in Jan 2020 with $1,000.00 - and not considering if you held the short position as SDS declined-and PSAR is designed to do.
Trade 1 entry $23.75 buys 42.10 shares- stops out $23.52 = $990.31
Trade 2 captures the majority of the market sell-off Entry $24.49/$990.31 = 40.43 shares -stops out $34.24 = $1,384.00
Trade 3 $1,384/23.40=59.16 shares stop out @ $22.20= $1,313.00
Trade 4 $1,313/21.07 =62.33 shares stops out $18.39 = $1,146.00
Trade 5 $1,146/15.16=75.61 shares stops out $15.75 = $1,190.00
Trade 6 $1,190/15.75 =75.61 shares stops out $14.53 = $1,098.00

2 winning long trades with 4 losing trades- captured the big trend sell-off- However, PSAR is designed to be employed on both directions - The opposite pair of SDS would be taking positions on the Long side when PSAR is above a declining SDS trade-
Or the SDS position would be a short until stopped out and reversed- Had the real purpose of psar been employed - going long- and reversing and going short- the results would have been much higher for profitability.
i.imgur.com/OZzHt8W.png

PSAR is Parabolic Stop and Reverse-
The typical setting is 0.02,0.2 but I elected to use a slower value in this chart 0.01,0.2

Now, this is not the Holy Grail- but it illustrates the value of ignoring individual price bars daily.
All indicators are based on price action and most react on price volatility- but should not be used in a vacuum -
However, personal Bias and interpretation will influence an individual on reacting to -and following the different signals precisely.
I strongly believe that one should be positioned to trade WITH the predominant trend - but PSAR also can be applied there, and not only could be used as a stop-loss mechanism, but a potential -go short -m playing both sides of the trend.

Because this Example is a leveraged play- the results are about 2x vs a standard 1x position- But consider the results if one would use the PSAR to take both long and short positions- The results of the SDS trade would have been much more positive.
At the very least, considering to wait until when Psar activates a Buy signal - and consider the psar for a stop-loss.
If I had more time, I would illustrate the application of PSAR to take both long and short positions on the SPY or QQQ indexes- Perhaps next week, as I will be on vacation-
Like most indicators- Psar does best when markets are trending- and can be whipsawed in a sideways basing range- so understanding Up trend- Down trend/ trading range/consolidation.... In conjunction with a confirming momentum indicator -
Elder impulse bars, Stochastic, RSI, ROC and Most importantly- TREND- because TREND is not reacting simply to a 1 or 2 day price reaction.

[sd]

sUPPOSE YOU INVESTED $1,000 IN GBTC IN JAN 2, 2020, AND YOUTRADE STRICTLY ON THE PSAR VALUES. Long and Short side-

That $1,000 value would have become almost $4,000.00! That is solely by following PSAR buy and sell signals and entering the very next day- If my math is correct!
Should my math be wrong-by a fraction-(it's getting late) the results are very convincing- Trailing PSAR for stops- and go short for declining psar, long for lower psar.
I will check this preliminary accounting tomorrow-




i.imgur.com/JMmRhoS.png

[ira85]

My, My. SD I didn't expect you to put in so much time helping me understand these factors. I will spend a good deal of time in the coming weeks studying these measures. And I will have more time for it. My wife tested positive for the virus and of course, I have to quarantine too since I've been exposed. She isn't having problems breathing, or any other dangerous symptoms. I'm symptom free and feel fine. Went out running yesterday and today. I expect both of us will be okay. But I'll be in the house a lot for the next 2 weeks or so.

On a completely different subject, it dawned on me recently that the weekly horse races we used to hold allowed me to succeed in the horse race, but it didn't help me learn about real trading and investing. Why? Mainly because I focused only on fast price increase. My objective was to win the most weekly races. I remember thinking risk is irrelevant in this game. Slow, steady growth won't accomplish anything. And if I suffer a 5% loss or a 50% loss it doesn't matter. We start the next week with a clean slate. Over the years I played, I got better at it. I had the most wins one year. I remember thinking I'd be afraid to put real money on some of the picks I made. Just an observation. I enjoyed playing and was a bit disappointed when we had to give it up. Of course I could have followed your lead and tried to learn about real trading. I could have, but I didn't. So I'll do some studying now. Again thanks for the work you did above. Please don't feel obligated to do so much work on my behalf.

One other item. I don't know how often a real human visits this board. Maybe it happens. I got the idea for writing about my trading mistakes as the "Inept Investor" thinking it might be of interest to a visitor. Of course a visitor would have to be pretty darn interested to take the time to get registered.

If you are a visitor and would like to see more commentary about investment mistakes, identifying them and correcting them, please leave a comment and let us know. Thanks - ira

[sd]

First and foremost Ira, I hope you and your wife both get past this virus healthy and without complications!
My daughter called my wife and expressed concerns about Thanksgiving being a real potential for the spread among our family - wife has COPD, and I'm in the same age group as you-
Higher Risk of more severe complications should we get it- Of course, I'm still on a project with 100+ people, but masks are now mandatory along with copious hand sanitizing.
I enjoy the process of the analysis- I'm slow to adapt- so it's also a benefit to me, and if it challenges one's preconceived notions- so much the better-
There is a fairly steep learning curve- if one jumps into learning TA - and it's best to just apply a few simple processes and apply them to the trading decision. Then track the results over time- and different market conditions.
As far as actual readers- I don't really think there are but a handful (one hand) - there are too many other more active places to spend one's time- Which somewhat suits me fine,
as I would not have time to be other than a once a day at best-
I used to think that others would benefit from sharing my learning process- and that I was somehow contributing to a better end for others- But that was a fallacy on my part-People will learn their own lessons at their own pace- What seems a "best approach" to me applies to me, my risk tolerance- and my goals.

Coming back to this site on a somewhat regular basis actually keeps me engaged in the investing/trading process- and the act of writing helps things gel.

Stay Safe!

[sd]

11-19-2020
Vacation begins- I left work a bit early this pm with time to see that the markets were rallying- and a number of stocks were breaking higher- including All of the ARK funds- While I had partial orders in each of the ARK positions in the Van ROTH, I also had limit orders below the recent price range to get a fill on each position at a lower average cost-I canceled those lower limit orders and with market /buy orders, added to all of those positions-putting 17k cash to use with increased Ark Fund positions. I also bought 50 SNAP and 100 SPCE as specs-in the trading account-
I intentionally take small positions in the individual stocks - the FSLY -20% loss taught me that was the correct approach ...
I will be adding positions in the trading account tomorrow am- intending to get fully invested in that account, unless the futures look grim for some reason...
Since I have positioned a fair amount of funds with a dividend focus, I will rely on the rest of the positions to generate ALPHA- The decision to go long some portion of the portfolio intentionally into dividend funds was diversifying the Risk a bit-
I have never appreciated what a dividend portfolio could present- but the sharp sell-off in March saw a lot of dividend positons cut in value substantially-
What good is a dividend if you are down 30% on your principal to get a few dimes in return? Without trying to do any real homework, I bought the 5 large Dividend etfs - including a global dividend play-All are presently trending higher- WDIV just out of a lower base.
Since these can easily decline far more than expected- stops will also be part of the equation.

Presently, I am holding over 30 positions- Diverse holdings- including a group of Dividend funds, ESG -environmental funds- on the theme going forward that fossil fuels will see more regulation, and the move to electric is unstoppable. Also owning a large tech exposure -with ARK funds the vehicles in the innovation corner.

What might still run higher?

Electric vehicle plays- -Lithium plays- fuel cells? tsla? nio? LIT-ALB mining
How about Cramers top 10 for December 2020? ROKU,PYPL,TSLA,SQ,AMZN,NOW,OKTA,RING,TWILIO,TGT,
I'm tempted to promote The 5 ARK funds as the competition + DFKG, SPCE, FCX, CNBS,
My Spouse of 40 years-suddenly is taking an active role in managing her personal Roth account-
That is exciting! Introducing her to a conversion to using TA is perhaps a different science. AND A DIFFERENT PERSPECTIVE!

hMM cRAMER GAVE HIS BEST 10 STOCKS FOR THE MONTH OF dECEMBER-
I'll take ARkF,ARKQ,ARKK,ARKW,ARKG, PRNT, CNBS,DKNG,gbtc,fcx.
Equal share allotment of $1,000.00 per each position.

[sd]

Buying 100 TAN-$77.54 on a move higher- solar ETF An Investment in VAN IRA
www.etf.com/sections/features-and-news/solar-etf-2020s-best-performer?nopaging=1
Van Roth primarily ARK funds- added in the Van IRA 142 PRNT, 50 ARKW (PRNT is a 3d printing fund ARK has had that seems to be moving well this year)

In the small IB account-went all-in today

Took some smaller spec stock positions- 50 SNAP $42.30; 100 SPCE 24.06; 50 WKHS 23.42;15 BNTX 100.00; 15 ENPH $132.87
10 CRSP (also in ARKG fund)ttps://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/20/crispr-scientists-claim-identified-genes-that-protect-against-covid.html
200 LGVW Spac with a possible med company on CNBC with some innovating med devices talked about this am on CNBC
Added 14 ARKW -in the IB, 3 ZM, - I will work on setting trailing stops on all of these positions, as that has worked well in 2020 to keep the Risk low and this account with a good % gain for the year.

Ark funds moving higher it seems out of the recent sideways range- I cancelled my lower buy orders as I am now ALL_IN with no free cash unless I sell something or get stopped out.
During this vacation period, I hope to sort out how best to consider what portion of these funds belong in the "Investment" side-and would be given more leeway- and what portion of these positions should I follow with partial stops?
In the IB account, $16,133.00 is spread among 9 positions- 8 stocks and ARKW ETF - I almost bought nndm (as a possible momentum mover) and waited - it opened down and is -24% lower than yesterdays $5.80 high- Cheap stocks are cheap for a reason- but that's also why I tend to spread my individual stock positions out with small position size.
In the company IRA, I have this year's contributions in 3 funds that represented the new economy/ foreign mkts- Those funds have been up +20% YTD- but I was buying at different periods throughout the year.

What is the market's projection for next year? I'm listening to one BMO manager - Bullish for 2021 with 15% gain in the S&P-But somewhat soft on Tech for this next year-although positive on Tech for the long multi year term- Steve Weiss believes technology continues to outperform- I'm with him...
I'm hearing that the Election - If the Dems take the senate with the Ga races redone, We likely see a sell-off...

[sd]

I just pulled up my Year to Date Statement in the Trading account-and it's up +51%- so I will be a bit self-congratulatory -
Account started 2020 with $10,400, and today is up over $16,000.00- with a pretty active stop-loss approach employed . Hopefully that amount will be higher by year's end- I also paid more attention to trade in a more disciplined manner- primarily focused on uptrending positions- quicker to tighten stops-
i.imgur.com/rJZxVoC.png
While this is a relatively small account, it initially represent my higher Risk trades- proportionately smaller positions.
I traded 49 different stocks and ETFS- some multiple times. 26 LOSING positions-23 winning positions- essentially a 50-50 win-loss ratio.
Worst losing trade ARKG -$292.48
Best ARKW $+1,656; BA $1,042; SNAP $1,072.00 potentially over several trades at different times-
This illustrates the concept of trying to cut losing trades quickly, and not just taking a small profit on a winning trade.
Essentially 200+ trades- Buys and sells based on the commission charges-

Cannot format the report- had it separated to show the net losses in one column, gains in the other- The last number following the Ticker symbol is the -loss or gain.



Positions and Mark-to-Market Profit and Loss
QUANTITY PRICE MARKET VALUE MARK-TO-MARKET PROFIT AND LOSS
SYMBOL DESCRIPTION PRIOR CURRENT PRIOR CURRENT PRIOR CURRENT POSITION TRADING COMM. OTHER LOSSES GAINS
Stocks
USD
AAPL APPLE INC 23 0 293.65 - 6,753.95 0.00 0 374.90
ARKF ARK FINTECH INNOVATION ETF 0 0 - - 0.00 0.00 614.25 -150.96 -12.43 450.86
ARKG ARK GENOMIC REVOLUTION ETF 0 0 - - 0.00 0.00 -499.28 2 -292.48
ARKK ARK INNOVATION ETF 0 1 - 103.26 0.00 103.26 122.07 -37.99 -21.70 0.00 62.37
ARKQ ARK AUTONOMOUS TECH & ROBOT 0 1 - 65.91 0.00 65.91 461.60 84.07 -5.15 540.52
ARKW ARK NEXT GENERATION INTERNET 0 1 - 124.13 0.00 124.13 1,626.02 41.68 1,656.29
BA BOEING CO/THE 0 0 - - 0.00 0.00 1,005.40 43.65 -6.11 0.00 1,042.94
BX BLACKSTONE GROUP INC/THE-A 0 0 - - 0.00 0.00 -131.00 -9.98 -2.0 -143.05
CGC CANOPY GROWTH CORP 0 0 - - 0.00 0.00 -165.00 4.25 -2.02 0.00 -162.77
CVS CVS HEALTH CORP 0 0 - - 0.00 0.00 -201.00 87.60 -2.04 0.00 -115.44
DKNG DRAFTKINGS INC - CL A 0 0 - - 0.00 0.00 -112.50 -37.25 -2.02 0.00 -151.77
FCX FREEPORT-MCMORAN INC 0 0 - - 0.00 0.00 -49.00 28.25 -2.05 0.00 -22.80
FEYE FIREEYE INC 0 0 - - 0.00 0.00 -22.00 57.00 -2.04 0.00 32.96
GBTC GRAYSCALE BITCOIN TRUST BTC 0 0 - - 0.00 0.00 10.25 -52.75 -2 -44.52
GE GENERAL ELECTRIC CO 0 0 - - 0.00 0.00 -42.00 -40.50 -2.03 0.00 -84.53
GLD SPDR GOLD SHARES 0 0 - - 0.00 0.00 86.42 50.06 -4.06 0.00 132.42
HACK ETFMG PRIME CYBER SECURITY E 0 0 - - 0.00 0.00 23.70 -6.45 -2.04 15.21
HYG ISHARES IBOXX HIGH YLD CORP 0 0 - - 0.00 0.00 165.90 6.99 -2.06 182.39
INO INOVIO PHARMACEUTICALS INC 0 0 - - 0.00 0.00 204.00 -28.50 -2.04 173.46
IPO RENAISSANCE IPO ETF 0 0 - - 0.00 0.00 43.47 -156.20 -6.68 0.00 -119.41
JD JD.COM INC-ADR 0 0 - - 0.00 0.00 -13.40 -17.28 -2.02 0.00 -32.70
JETS US GLOBAL JETS ETF 0 0 - - 0.00 0.00 -251.00 -13.00 -2.04 0.00 -266.04
KWEB KRANESHARES CSI CHINA INTERN 0 0 - - 0.00 0.00 -135.92 -8.16 -6.1 -150.23
LH LABORATORY CRP OF AMER HLDGS 0 0 - - 0.00 0.00 193.50 -144.40 -2.04 47.06
LITE LUMENTUM HOLDINGS INC 0 0 - - 0.00 0.00 -57.73 17.48 -2.04 0.00 -42.29
MJ ETFMG ALTERNATIVE HARVEST 0 0 - - 0.00 0.00 -71.40 10.36 -2.70 -63.74
MRNA MODERNA INC 0 0 - - 0.00 0.00 29.52 -56.88 -2.02 0.00 -29.38
MSFT MICROSOFT CORP 0 0 - - 0.00 0.00 222.26 176.80 -6.17 0.00 392.89
NDAQ NASDAQ INC 0 0 - - 0.00 0.00 -74.85 27.60 -2.04 0.00 -49.29
NIO NIO INC - ADR 0 0 - - 0.00 0.00 -42.00 -115.05 -5.05 0.00 -162.10
NKLA NIKOLA CORP 0 0 - - 0.00 0.00 0.00 -45.00 -2.02 0.00 -47.02
PAAS PAN AMERICAN SILVER CORP 0 0 - - 0.00 0.00 127.80 -66.00 -2.03 59.77
PFE PFIZER INC 0 0 - - 0.00 0.00 -19.20 -42.00 -2.06 22.80 -40.46
PLUG PLUG POWER INC 0 0 - - 0.00 0.00 71.00 -57.50 -2.04 0.00 11.46
SDS PROSHARES ULTRASHORT S&P500 0 0 - - 0.00 0.00 -27.00 6.00 -2 -23.02
SFIX STITCH FIX INC-CLASS A 0 0 - - 0.00 0.00 -24.00 11.75 -2.04 0.00 -14.29
SKYY FIRST TRUST CLOUD COMPUTING 0 0 - - 0.00 0.00 -44.20 -7.00 -4.11 -55.31
SLV ISHARES SILVER TRUST 0 0 - - 0.00 0.00 -412.00 263.24 -4.12 0.00 -152.88
SNAP SNAP INC - A 107 50 16.33 42.29 1,747.31 2,114.50 1,224.78 -139.44 1,072.04
SPCE VIRGIN GALACTIC HOLDINGS INC 0 100 - 24.05 0.00 2,405.00 316.41 254.38 -10.13 560.66
TDOC TELADOC HEALTH INC 0 0 - - 0.00 0.00 -29.10 90.49 -4.10 0.00 57.29
TOKE CAMBRIA CANNABIS ETF 0 0 - - 0.00 0.00 136.49 -51.49 -2.04 0.00 82.96
TQQQ PROSHARES ULTRAPRO QQQ 0 0 - - 0.00 0.00 93.90 -124.55 -4.08 0.00 -34.73
TSLA TESLA INC 0 0 - - 0.00 0.00 259.16 122.62 -4.08 0.00 377.70
UTX UNITED TECHNOLOGIES CORP 0 0 - - 0.00 0.00 -19.71 -22.86 -2.03 -37.98
WOOD ISHARES GLOBAL TIMBER & FORE 0 0 - - 0.00 0.00 98.10 -82.50 -5.14 0.00 10.46
WORK SLACK TECHNOLOGIES INC- CL A 0 0 - - 0.00 0.00 305.14 -44.16 -2.05 0.00 258.92
WRK WESTROCK CO 0 0 - - 0.00 0.00 -52.50 0.47 -2.03 0.00 -54.05
ZM ZOOM VIDEO COMMUNICATIONS-A 0 0 - - 0.00 0.00 125.01 61.08 -5.08 0.00 181.01
Total 8,501.26 4,812.80 5,477.23 78.12 -212.10 40.98 5,384.23
Forex
USD
USD 1,950.69 11,017.97 1.00 1.00 1,950.69 11,017.97 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Total 1,950.69 11,017.97 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Total (All Assets) 5,477.23 78.12 -212.10 40.98 5,384.23
Fees



Calculating the Van IRA- Difficult to determine the gain % as in the spring I had rolled out of my company IRA and added funds into the Van IRA-
the Van IRA held a good % of cash periodically- so the performance in that account ranges from 8% -11% +/-Gains +$9,490.00

The Van ROTH did better on a smaller amount of assets- net 13% return on $49k +$6,538.00

i.imgur.com/Wv5JDHJ.png

[sd]

GBTC gains+5%- PSAR stop-loss $19.00=10 ema Bitcoin momentum.
ARKF fund holds bitcoin as a % of assets-
Blackrock
LGVW CNBC spec up 28% from yesterday! My entry 200 @ $10.82 has a 1 day gain 0f 16%- Guess that is what motivates daytraders!
Tan also up to a record higher close. Solar play- I also bought ENPH the solar outperformer.

The remainder of the Ark funds : TAN + 2.38%;GBTC + 5.67%
PRNT + 0.40%; ARKQ lost - 0.06%; ARKF + 1.19%, ARKG +1.81%, ARKK + 1.59%, ARKW +1.88%-
Most of these positions are recent reentries- or new trades.
I loaded up this week, and will use the weekend to set stops-
With what appeared to be the technique giving outperformance applied in the trading account- can I replicate that in the Van account? All of these recent adds need to see the markets climb higher to allow a stop-loss to get up to the break-even or in the money stops...

[sd]

GETTING CONFIRMATION WITH INDICATORS

The chart of GBTC - has a bunch of indicators -
i.imgur.com/OIIT74k.png

the colored bars are selected from stockcharts "Type" Elder Impulse

a fast 5 ema moving average green line

Stoch-RSI- line crossing above the 0.50 line is bullish and above 0.8 green bullish- Dropping below the 0.80 is warning-below the 0.50 bearish

Full Stochastic -Black line above red is Bullish- crossing below red indicates weakness- below the 50 line bearish, above 80 line bullish

MACD histogram bars- Bars above the 0 line and increasing in Height are showing bullish momentum increasing- Bars above the 0 line and becoming shorter are indicative of a slowing of momentum. When the indicator bars invert below the 0 line, and getting larger- it indicates a base or a decline in price action. When the bars become larger and negative- it indicates a downtrend increasing- When these large bars start to become shorter, it indicates a slowing of the negative momentum.

It is useful to understand and employ some of these TA indicators to assist in the decision to enter, exit, or hold a position.
The fast uptrending moving average- Notice how the Green price bars usually all CLOSE above the uptrending moving average.
The MACD histogram will be above the 0 line and the height of the bars getting taller.
The Sto-RSI line will be above the 0.5 line, and if above the 0.80 will be a bullish green
The Full STO (stochastic) line will have the black line above the red and the level above the 50 line- above 80 is bullish
The PSAR 0.02 fast Psar will be below price action and can be used as a trailing stop
The PSAR 0.01 is slower to react, and can be used as a wider trailing stop-loss.
Not shown are multiple other moving averages- but it is negative when the fast 5 moving average crosses below a slower moving average-
Long positions should not be jumped into early during this decline unless supported by a positive confirmation .
Notice on the chart the 2 green bars 8-31; 9-1 appeared to look like a positive upturn and resumption of the trend, but the indicators were still in negative declines, but started to react to the 2 positive green bars. The PSAR remained bearish and were not touched by price - so a Buy-Stop or a short position would not have been affected.

The Blue bars indicate a slowing of momentum, but as long as they close above the uptrending ema , the trend is still positive.
When the blue or a red bar Closes below the uptrending ema line, it may indicate the trend has slowed- may base and go sideways- or may start to decline.
The MACD histogram will have the bars above the 0 line become shorter- and if a sideways range develops, the MACD bars may be small and on both sides of the 0 line.
If the decline develops into a downtrend, the MACD bars get larger below the 0 line, increasing in hgt as momentum to the downside increases.
Macd is sensitive to the daily price action- but often the best approach is to not take a long position until the histogram is above the 0 line .
This is well illustrated as the MACD histogram went negative and below the 0 line starting AUG 21 -OCT 3 .
During that period of time- price bars had moved back above the declining fast ema 8 times, making it appear a trend move back to the upside was about to occur- By not being too anxious to jump into a position at a discount in price, and waiting for an indicator or two to confirm, would have saved one from making too early a purchase .
Similarly, if one used PSAR levels to take a short position, the other indicators would be useful to confirm the short.

While this is a Daily chart, and designed to react to short term moves, a weekly chart could be the choice of one wanting to be more of an investor vs trader. The same indicator signals on a Weekly time frame would react to a weekly bar (5 days) and be proportionately wider- and designed to be less responsive to daily price volatility.

TA signals are not guarantees. While there will be losing trades and failed entries, using confirmations when making a trading decision will improve the long term results , keeping one on the right side of a trend the majority of the time.

I will apply the Psar values and the indicators in this chart to the positions in my Trading account-and for clarity, not add the additional
emas that I typically use- I will adjust stops using one or both of the psar values, possibly opting to employ the wider PSAR stop.

BEFORE APPLYING  THESE METHODS TO YOUR OWN TRADING, BACKTEST THIS  AGAINST TRADES YOU HAVE MADE IN THE PAST TO SEE WHAT YOUR RESULTS WOULD HAVE BEEN.

[sd]

I will list my Trading account positions taken Thursday and Friday, and will see how they -as a group- perform through December-
When a trade stops out, I may opt to take a different position, sit in cash etc as no one knows where we go. I will use the prior chart with PSAR as my guide. This is both an experiment to apply a defined approach, and to see if I have the discipline to follow it through

A total of 9 new positions - I had held 1 share each of ARKK,ARKQ,ARKW- with the remainder in cash for the past week or so.
If my math is correct- the 3 1share positions = $277.00 Transaction costs $15,662 remaining cash $146 = $16,085 starting value
$16,486.00 this Sat am.

SNAP 50 42.31 $2115.00 ; SPCE 100 24.07 $2407.00 ; WKHS 50 23.42 $1171.00 ; BNTX 15 100.00 $1500.00 ;ENPH 15 132.87 $1993.00 ;
CRSP 10 109.94 $1099 ; ZM 3 432.85 $1298.00 ; LGVW 200 10.82 $2164.00 ARKW- (HAD 1) 13 $126.11 $1639 ARKQ -1 $59.27 ARKK 1- $92.24

As I uploaded these into a chartlist-one of the 1st things I notice is that some of the PSAR stops are really wide initially- and on a few entries- Snap for example, was without a psar confirmation-, macd histogram improving but still below the 0 line. Snap was one of my most profitable trades earlier this year. Price had gapped higher in October- and I had been in the position earlier- I would define this as a sideways range, and in an uptrend now- so buying after a green bar close following the red bars provides an early entry- and would assume the stop would be below the low of the red bars- approx $37

i.imgur.com/8BR7ZO8.png

LGVW- I saw the interview on CNBC - Seems to be a SPAC venture firm that has a participant with a potentially promising medical device calling it "Revolutionary" I jumped on board with 2 100 share orders and I'm surprised at how this closed up -Stock is up 26% on it's move from the day earlier, and I'm about +17% in the green- See if it holds Monday and jumps higher- I should note that if I'm lucky enough to see this trending higher- I will qualify this as a momentum runaway and will trail a tight stop-loss and possibly take partial profits- knock on wood

i.imgur.com/nxulPSA.png

I should also note that many of these trades are already trending and so I'm getting in "Late" compared to the PSAR generated buys.
Have to start somewheres..

[sd]

LOLO (as the grandkids call her) is learning to trade. She started in Sept, and had a great ZM trade as one of her initial trades capturing a 27% gain and just reentering the position again this past Friday. I haven't gotten her to become a TA advocate-yet- but I'm trying- She has her trades in a Stockcharts chartlist-
and I adopted this chart with the single 5 ema and psar values to be easier to follow- and less cluttered with multiple moving averages-
She also went back in long ZM Friday, as well as taking a number of other positions.

i.imgur.com/E4os9Hd.png